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EXPLANATION
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POLLING.POLLING. FOCUS GROUPS. MARKET STUDIES. MEMBERSHIP SURVEYS. MESSAGE DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING.TESTING. FOCUS GROUPS. MARKET STUDIES. MEMBERSHIP SURVEYS. MESSAGE DEVELOPMENT AND
KEY FINDINGS
The Democratic Party is nowviewed favorably by 56% of voters under 30, thats the same as it was in the January survey. It should be noted that 50% of independents view the Democratic Party favorably. The Republican Party is now viewed favorably by 42% of young voters, thats down 3 points since January. It should be noted that 33% of independents view the Republican Party favorably. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 13 points among registered voters surveyed (and by 14 points among likely voters). While Obama is doing better among young voters than he is among voters nationally (an average of nationwide surveys now give Obama a 1-2 point lead), his advantage over Romney is much smaller than his Election Day performance in 2008, when he defeated John McCain by 33% among voters under 30. This data provides strong evidence that Obama has important work to do to shore up his support among younger votersthis is especially true among white voters under 30, a constituency Obama now loses by 6 points. A majority of voters surveyed, 57%, say Obama has met or exceeded their expectations as President while 38% say hes fallen below expectations.
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POLLING.POLLING. FOCUS GROUPS. MARKET STUDIES. MEMBERSHIP SURVEYS. MESSAGE DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING.TESTING. FOCUS GROUPS. MARKET STUDIES. MEMBERSHIP SURVEYS. MESSAGE DEVELOPMENT AND
The Democratic Party is clearly seen as the party that best understands the problems of people under 30. It is also clearly seen as the party that will make education more affordable, the party that will make sure Social Security and Medicare will be available for Generation Y and the party that has the best plans to create jobs for young people entering the work force. On which party has the best policies to improve the economy, however, Democrats have a narrow 3-point lead over Republicans. Republicans are seen as the party that will best protect Americas ability to compete with other countries around the world and as the party that will bring down the federal budget deficit. Voters surveyed are consistently split on who has the ability to strengthen the economy and create jobs: Obama and Romney tie, as do the two parties. A slightly greater amount of young voters (+4%) say small businesses over large businesses and 6% more say government over private business.
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POLLING.POLLING. FOCUS GROUPS. MARKET STUDIES. MEMBERSHIP SURVEYS. MESSAGE DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING.TESTING. FOCUS GROUPS. MARKET STUDIES. MEMBERSHIP SURVEYS. MESSAGE DEVELOPMENT AND
Voters under 30 are much more optimistic about nations future than pessimistic, although the level of
optimism (now 63%) is down a little from January, when it was 68%. Democrats are more optimistic (73%) than Republicans (52%) and independents (59%). Respondents were a little less optimistic about the future of the economy than the future of the country in general (58% vs. 63%). 87% of voters under 30 believe a college degree gives people a better chance to make more moneyalthough only 45% said a much better chance while 42% said a little better chance. Only 11% said it would not give them a better chance. 85% of voters under 30 believe a college degree gives people a better chance of having a meaningful career that uses their best talents 50% said a much better chance while 35% said a little better chance. 72% of voters under 30 believe that by the time they retire it is likely that the Social Security system will go broke and wont be able to pay full retirement benefits43% said very likely while 29% said fairly likely. A majority of voters surveyed (57%) oppose universal public service while 36% support it. Support is highest among blacks, Democrats and respondents in the South.
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AWARENESS & FAVORABILITY I am going to read the names of political parties and groups. For each one,
please tell me if you are familiar with that party or group and, if so, whether you have a STRONGLY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, SOMEWHAT unfavorable or a STRONGLY unfavorable opinion of them.
Favorable Unfavorable Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Democratic Party Republican Party 28% 15 28% 27 16% 24 16% 21
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Democratic Party
GENDER All Strongly favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Strongly unfavorable 28 16 16 PARTY AGE Ind. 18-22 23-26 27-29 NE 39 10 12 24 17 18 35 13 14 24 18 15 32 12 11 REGION MW 26 17 18 S 25 16 17 W 31 17 15 RACE 2012 VOTE Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 53% 36 2 2 2% 17 35 35 26 16 18 31 15 17 28 19 21 28 3 6 27 14 4
11% 29% 25% 28% 34% 24% 29% 24% 33% 28% 21% 55% 35%
Republican Party
GENDER All Strongly favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Strongly unfavorable 27 24 21 PARTY AGE Ind. 18-22 23-26 27-29 NE 3% 30 21 16 28 28 19 28 23 21 27 20 22 32 25 21 REGION MW 25 22 24 S 27 23 21 W 26 27 19 RACE 2012 VOTE Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 4% 22 27 39 7% 18 32 23 2% 17 35 38 37% 39 9 2 28 23 23 27 24 21 31 21 17
15% 15% 18% 12% 17% 16% 15% 18% 15% 19%
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION If the election for President were being held today, and you had to make a choice, who
would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat, or Mitt Romney, the Republican?
PARTY
REGION MW 38 6 6 S 40 6 8 W 34 3 10
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Barack Obama Mitt Romney Neither
(Volunteered)
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OBAMAS JOB PERFORMANCE Compared to what you expected of Barack Obama before he was first elected
president, would you say that his job performance since then has exceed your expectations, met your expectations or has fallen below your expectations?
GENDER All Exceeded expectations Met expectations Fallen below expectations Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
PARTY
REGION MW 52 39 5 S 44 38 5 W 53 40 4
8% 49 38 5
11% 9% 5% 12% 3%
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Exceeded expectations Met expectations Fallen below expectations Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
9% 53 35 3
7% 53 35 5
4% 48 45 3
26% 11% 58 10 6 44 35 10
14% 68 15 3
1% 28 67 4
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RESPONSIBILITY FOR CONGRESS NOT GETTING MORE DONE Who do you think is more
responsible for the inability of Congress to get more done these days would you say its mostly the fault of President Obama and the Democrats or would you say its mostly the fault of the Republicans?
GENDER All President Obama and the Democrats Republicans Both equally at fault
(Volunteered) (Volunteered)
PARTY
REGION MW S W
58% 18% 24% 26% 30% 28% 23% 28% 27% 9 24 8 23 32 27 RACE 37 21 17 33 23 18 31 27 12 44 16 12 38 21 17 30 26 16 31 25 17
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney President Obama and the Democrats Republicans Both equally at fault
(Volunteered) (Volunteered)
9% 60 17 15
53% 9 28 10
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PARTY CONTROL ONE OR TWO OF THE HOUSES OF CONGRESS In Novembers election, its
possible that either the Democrats or the Republicans could win control of the two houses of Congress. For the countrys sake, do you think it would be better for one party to control both houses of Congress or do you think it would be better for each party to control one house of Congress?
GENDER All One party to control both houses One party to control one house Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
PARTY
REGION MW 56 10 S 52 12 W 57 7
36% 39% 33% 37% 43% 26% 33% 34% 42% 39% 35% 35% 36% 54 10
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney One party to control both houses One party to control one house Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
37% 55 9
41% 52 8
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PARTY PREFERENCE
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
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understands
Will
make
Will
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Has
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more
Social
Security
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people
under
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aordable.
and
Medicare
jobs
for
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will
be
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people
entering
for
people
of
the
work
force.
your
generaBon.
Has
the
best
Puts
the
Will
best
protect
Will
bring
down
policies
to
countrys
interest
Americas
ability
the
federal
improve
the
ahead
of
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compete
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budget
decit.
economy.
parBsan
poliBcs.
other
countries
around
the
world.
66% 59% 50% 47% 42% 33% 26% 19% 21% 28% 39% 38% 33% 31% 47% 49%
DemocraBc Party
Republican
Party
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PARTY PREFERENCE
I am now going to read to you a number of statements. Please tell me whether each statement best describes the (ROTATE) Democratic Party or the Republican Party.
Democratic Republican Party Party Best understands the problems of people under 30. Will make education more affordable. Will make sure Social Security and Medicare will be available for people of your generation. Has the best plans to create jobs for young people entering the work force. Has the best policies to improve the economy. Puts the countrys interest ahead of partisan politics. Will best protect Americas ability to compete with other countries around the world. Will bring down the federal budget deficit. 66% 59 50 19% 21 26
(Volunteered)
Neither 6% 8 13
9% 11 11
47 42 38 33 31
33 39 28 47 49
8 6 19 7 7
12 13 15 12 13
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PARTY
REGION MW 18 8 12 S 22 8 6 W 18 4 9
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 90% 4 1 5 38% 42 9 11 20 6 6 17 9 5 23 8 9 3 2 5 14 6 12
66% 61% 70% 93% 38% 55% 69% 68% 60% 69% 62% 63% 70% 68% 69% 60% 91% 68% 19 6 9
PARTY
REGION MW 20 10 16 S 24 7 9 W 17 12 14
RACE 2012 VOTE Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 83% 5 4 7 32% 46 10 12 23 8 10 20 12 7 25 10 13 11 3 5 14 7 10
59% 57% 61% 86% 33% 47% 60% 62% 53% 66% 54% 60% 56% 59% 62% 52% 81% 69% 21 8 11
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Will make sure Social Security and Medicare will be available for people of your generation.
GENDER All Democratic Party Republican Party Neither (Volunteered) Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
PARTY
REGION MW 25 11 13 S 31 13 9 W 29 13 13
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 75% 7 9 8 22% 56 12 9 26 13 8 23 19 6 32 14 12 9 6 5 20 15 9
50% 47% 52% 78% 23% 37% 57% 46% 47% 59% 51% 47% 45% 53% 52% 42% 80% 56% 26 13 11
Has the best plans to create jobs for young people entering the work force.
GENDER All Democratic Party Republican Party Neither (Volunteered) Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
PARTY
REGION MW 34 5 9 S 33 10 10 W 35 7 18
RACE 2012 VOTE Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 75% 10 6 10 15% 70 4 11 35 7 10 32 9 10 39 8 13 8 7 6 27 9 11
47% 39% 55% 78% 18% 32% 52% 47% 41% 50% 52% 47% 40% 48% 49% 40% 78% 52% 33 8 12
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PARTY
REGION MW 42 6 14 S 39 6 13 W 40 6 14
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 71% 13 5 11 9% 78 3 10 40 5 10 40 6 9 48 6 13 13 6 9 26 5 15
32% 42% 42% 41% 50% 38% 42% 40% 45% 45% 33% 72% 54%
PARTY
REGION MW 25 21 16 S 31 18 12 W 32 21 16
RACE 2012 VOTE Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 64% 9 14 14 10% 58 20 11 29 21 10 23 27 10 33 20 15 13 12 11 22 20 19
38% 34% 42% 65% 10% 27% 36% 39% 36% 44% 38% 39% 31% 41% 40% 32% 64% 39% 28 19 15
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Will best protect Americas ability to compete with other countries around the world.
GENDER All Democratic Party Republican Party Neither (Volunteered) Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
PARTY
REGION MW 43 8 14 S 50 6 11 W 52 9 14
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 56% 24 8 12 8% 81 2 9 47 6 9 47 10 8 54 7 12 23 6 6 39 9 18
25% 32% 34% 33% 41% 35% 33% 26% 38% 38% 27% 65% 35%
PARTY
REGION MW 46 8 13 S 51 7 11 W 50 7 14
RACE 2012 VOTE Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney 52% 28 8 12 9% 80 4 7 51 7 9 49 10 8 55 8 13 35 10 5 35 4 17
24% 31% 32% 29% 32% 33% 31% 30% 33% 33% 25% 50% 44%
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STRENGETHING THE ECONOMY AND CREATING MORE JOBS Thinking more about the economy
who do you believe has the ability to strengthen the economy and create more jobs?
Obama Romney
43% 43% 43% 43% 47% 43% 43% 49% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
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STRENGETHING THE ECONOMY AND CREATING MORE JOBS Thinking more about the economy
who do you believe has the ability to strengthen the economy and create more jobs?
PARTY
REGION MW 48 11 S 45 12 W 40 20
43% 44% 42% 42% 45% 40% 43% 41% 43% 45% 41% 44% 39% 43 14
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Obama Romney Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
46% 46 9
45% 49 6
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STRENGETHING THE ECONOMY AND CREATING MORE JOBS Thinking more about the economy
who do you believe has the ability to strengthen the economy and create more jobs?
PARTY
REGION MW 43 14 S 47 12 W 40 16
43% 43% 43% 43% 48% 37% 45% 46% 35% 46% 43% 41% 44% 43 13
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Democratic Party Republican Party Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
44% 46 10
48% 45 7
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STRENGETHING THE ECONOMY AND CREATING MORE JOBS Thinking more about the economy
who do you believe has the ability to strengthen the economy and create more jobs?
PARTY
REGION MW 43 12 S 47 9 W 53 9
43% 41% 45% 41% 48% 41% 44% 42% 43% 45% 44% 44% 38% 47 10
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Small businesses Large businesses Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
41% 50 9
46% 45 8
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STRENGETHING THE ECONOMY AND CREATING MORE JOBS Thinking more about the economy
who do you believe has the ability to strengthen the economy and create more jobs?
PARTY
REGION MW 37 12 S 42 5 W 49 9
49% 49% 49% 52% 50% 42% 46% 51% 52% 48% 51% 52% 42% 43 8
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Private business Government Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
51% 38 11
48% 49 3
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FUTURE OF AMERICA Thinking about Americas future as a country, would you say you are very optimistic,
somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic, or very pessimistic? GENDER All Male Female Dem. 14% 11% 17% 18% Very Optimistic 49 47 50 55 Somewhat Optimistic 63 58 67 73 TOTAL OPTIMISTIC 25 25 19 Somewhat Pessimistic 25 9 13 6 5 Very Pessimistic 34 38 31 24 TOTAL PESSIMISTIC Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
PARTY Rep. 8% 44 52 37 10 47 2
AGE
Ind. 18-22 23-26 27-29 NE MW 16% 13% 13% 17% 11% 11% 43 53 46 46 56 49 59 66 59 63 57 60 21 24 28 22 24 27 13 8 9 11 7 10 34 32 37 33 31 37 7 RACE 2 4 4 2012 VOTE 3 2
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic TOTAL OPTIMISTIC Somewhat Pessimistic Very Pessimistic TOTAL PESSIMISTIC Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
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FUTURE OF AMERICAN ECONOMY Thinking about the economy over the next year, would you say you are very
optimistic, somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic, or very pessimistic? GENDER All 8% 50 58 31 8 39 3 Male Female Dem. 8% 9% 10% 47 54 61 55 63 71 31 31 26 11 5 2 42 37 28 3 2 2 PARTY Rep. 3% 42 45 38 15 53 2 AGE Ind. 18-22 23-26 27-29 12% 8% 6% 11% 44 54 50 49 56 62 56 60 30 30 35 27 9 6 7 12 39 36 42 39 6 RACE Likely College Voter Grad White 8% 5% 4% 52 60 32 7 39 1 56 61 30 6 36 2 52 56 32 10 42 2 2 3 2 2012 VOTE NE 3% 58 61 29 6 35 3 REGION MW S W 8% 12% 5% 54 45 49 62 57 54 25 33 34 11 6 9 36 39 53 1 3 3
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic TOTAL OPTIMISTIC Somewhat Pessimistic Very Pessimistic TOTAL PESSIMISTIC Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic TOTAL OPTIMISTIC Somewhat Pessimistic Very Pessimistic TOTAL PESSIMISTIC Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
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BETTER CHANCE TO EARN MORE MONEY WITH A COLLEGE DEGREE Do you believe having a
college degree gives you a much better chance to make more money, a little better chance to make more money, or no better chance to make more money?
GENDER All Much better A little better No better Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
PARTY
REGION MW 42 15 * S 41 11 4 W 46 5 1
45% 42% 48% 52% 42% 38% 49% 40% 46% 48% 43% 44% 47% 42 11 2
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Much better A little better No better Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
51% 40 8 1
48% 42 9 1
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PARTY
REGION MW 38 14 * S 29 14 4 W 43 10 2
50% 46% 55% 58% 43% 46% 56% 42% 53% 52% 48% 54% 45% 35 12 2
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Much better A little better No better Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
57% 33 9 1
45% 37 17 1
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SOCIAL SECURITY GOING BROKE BEFORE YOU RETIRE Between now and the time you retire, how
likely do you think it is that the Social Security system will go broke and wont be able to pay full retirement benefitsvery likely, fairly likely, not too likely, or not likely at all? GENDER All Very likely Fairly likely Not too likely Not likely at all Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
REGION MW 25 22 6 4 S 28 14 7 6 W 30 16 5 6
43% 42% 29 16 6 5
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Very likely Fairly likely Not too likely Not likely at all Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
35% 32 20 8 5
51% 30 13 3 3
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UNIVERSAL PUBLIC SERVICE Do you think Congress should pass a law requiring universal public service for all
Americans that would include service either in the military or in non-military programs such as the Peace Corps, AmeriCorps or Teach for Americayes or no?
PARTY
REGION MW 63 5 S 50 6 W 60 7
36% 34% 39% 43% 30% 34% 39% 34% 39% 33% 32% 43% 33% 57 6
RACE
2012 VOTE
Likely College Voter Grad White Black Other Obama Romney Yes No Dont know/No answer
(Volunteered)
42% 53 5
32% 64 4
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