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Back Stopping and Peak Oil Aff

Back Stopping and Peak Oil Aff

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Jan 08, 2009
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09/14/2012

 
Miami Oxford Scholars 08 Backstopping/Peak Aff 
1
 
Backstopping and Peak Oil Aff
Yes Oil Shocks..............................................................................................................................................................2
 
***BACKSTOPPING***.............................................................................................................................................3
 
AT: Backstopping..........................................................................................................................................................3
 
AT: Backstopping..........................................................................................................................................................4
 
AT: Backstopping..........................................................................................................................................................5
 
No Spare Capacity.........................................................................................................................................................6
 
No Spare Capacity.........................................................................................................................................................7
 
No Spare Capacity – Won’t Pump.................................................................................................................................8
 
No Spare Capacity Pipelines......................................................................................................................................9
 
***PEAK OIL***.......................................................................................................................................................10
 
Yes Peak......................................................................................................................................................................10
 
Yes Peak......................................................................................................................................................................11
 
Yes Peak......................................................................................................................................................................12
 
Yes Peak......................................................................................................................................................................13
 
Best Research Proves...................................................................................................................................................14
 
Time Frame Now......................................................................................................................................................15
 
Time Frame 5 Years.................................................................................................................................................16
 
AT: “Lots of Reserves”...............................................................................................................................................17
 
AT: Substitutes............................................................................................................................................................18
 
AT: Abiotic Oil............................................................................................................................................................19
 
AT: Transitions Smooth..............................................................................................................................................20
 
Peak Kills Econ...........................................................................................................................................................21
 
Peak Kills Econ...........................................................................................................................................................23
 
Peak Kills Econ...........................................................................................................................................................24
 
Peak Kills Heg.............................................................................................................................................................25
 
Peak = Famine.............................................................................................................................................................26
 
***OTHER STUFF WE THREW IN***...................................................................................................................27
 
High Prices Bad Terrorism.......................................................................................................................................27
 
High Prices Hurt Soft Power.......................................................................................................................................28
 
AT: Prices=> Transition..............................................................................................................................................29
 
 
Miami Oxford Scholars 08 Backstopping/Peak Aff 
2
 
Yes Oil Shocks
( _ ) 200 dollar a barrel oil will tank the global econ in the SQ
The
Calgary Herald
(Alberta) May 7,
2008
p. l/n
Oil could shoot to $200 US within the next two years as part of a "super-spike
," investment bank GoldmanSachs said Tuesday, as crude cruised to a record price north of $122 per barrel and at least one Calgary stationbriefly advertised regular gasoline at a record $1.29 per litre. It's an oil forecast that's gaining in popularity -- and aprospect analysts and
economists agreed would lead to a global slowdown, a deep U.S. recession and higherprices for consumers in Canada on everything from gas to food. "We believe the current energy crisis maybe coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent," U.S.-based Goldmananalyst Arjun Murti said in a research note. "The possibility of $150 to $200 per barrel seems increasinglylikely over the next six to 24 months
, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices . . . remains a majoruncertainty."
( _ ) Prices will remain high for a long period- no transition
Daily Oil Bulletin
April 15,
2008
p. l/nThe
price of oil
, which set a new record topping $113.50 (U.S.) per bbl at mid-morning today,
may hold up bettertoday
than it did in the late 1970s when a combination of high oil prices and fairly high global demand growth werefollowed by an economic slump and lower prices. "That decade ended with the United States economy wading intoa stagflationary swamp and the global economy on the cusp of a protracted slowdown," Dr. Judith Dwarkin, senioreconomist with Ross Smith Energy Group Ltd., told a conference sponsored by the Canadian Energy ResearchInstitute (CERI). "
The lesson we learned back then is that it is possible for oil prices to get too high." Today,"high oil prices may have a bit longer shelf life," she suggested. On the supply side, cost inflation is putting adrag on investments in non-OPEC countries while on the demand side there will be a longer developmentperiod for alternatives to oil than there was in the 1970s and 1980s. Thirty years ago, high oil prices resultedin a rapid shift to natural gas for power generation. With cheap and abundant gas and a well-establishedtechnology, it was not a difficult change to make. Today, the transportation sector is "the last remainingbastion" of oil demand growth but the technology for alternative transport fuels is still in its early stages andis an economic challenge
.
 
Miami Oxford Scholars 08 Backstopping/Peak Aff 
3
 
***BACKSTOPPING***AT: Backstopping
( _ ) OPEC No Longer Has the Ability to Backstop the Global Oil Market
Sodhi
, an Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, 6/24/ 
08
, p.http://www.cis.org.au/executive_highlights/EH2008/eh63608.html (Gauray, “The Myth of OPEC”, Executive Highlights)The massive reserves of Saudi Arabia have also historically been a tool to encourage quota compliance. The Saudis,with their massive oil reserves and high levels of spare production capacity, have in the past threatened to flood themarket with oil to engineer a collapse in price. With the world’s cheapest production costs and lots of sparecapacity, it was a threat the Saudis could theoretically carry out. Not anymore. Saudi Arabia no longer has thebuffer of excess production, and there is a lack of confidence in the sustainability of its largest fields. The longstanding threat to flood the market with cheap oil has now become a bluff, and the other members of OPEC know it.OPEC goes to great trouble to pretend that it can influence prices. It holds regular meetings where it ordains a newproduction target with much ceremony.
( _ ) OPEC isn’t holding back – they can’t backstop
Sodhi
, an Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, 6/24/ 
08
, p.http://www.cis.org.au/executive_highlights/EH2008/eh63608.html (Gauray, “The Myth of OPEC”, Executive Highlights)But honestly, you would have to be a mug to believe that OPEC countries are purposefully limiting production.When oil prices rise, so does the opportunity cost of sticking to the allocated quota. So while its possible to maintaina cartel when prices are low, you can bet your life that each member is pumping out as much crude as it possibly canat $140 a barrel. There are two reasons for this. Member countries of course have a financial incentive to pumpmore at higher prices: Saudi Arabia alone earns more than a billion dollars a day in oil revenue. For most OPECcountries, oil is their main source of revenue and if there is one thing governments like, its revenue. But there is amore important reason. OPECs members aren’t stable democratic countries in which petroleum is just anotherindustry. They are mostly authoritarian states that use oil as a means of sustaining political power. Oil money is away of buying support from key parts of society and financing a security apparatus to deal with enemies. Oil createsthe revenues that enable many OPEC regimes to continue to stay in power. By allowing countries to both buyauthority and enforce it, oil strengthens regimes that would otherwise be very wobbly. Nothing would be moredestabilizing for the Saudi monarchy or the Iranian theocracy than a fall in oil revenues. Would Hugo Chavezsurvive in Venezuela without using cheap oil to buy off allies? Governments in Libya, Nigeria and Angola wouldsimilarly all be in perilous political positions without the benefit of oil money. Far from being an economic boogeyman, the truth about OPEC is that it is a largely powerless organisation that sustains its own existence with a myth, amyth that governments in the West are complicit in spreading. Like a peacock that impresses with a great show of colour and noise, OPEC is really just a big bird that can’t fly.

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