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Corporate Profile
Annies, Inc. is a rapidly growing natural and organic food company with a widely recognized brand, offering consumers great-tasting products in large packaged food categories. We sell premium products made from high-quality ingredients at
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affordable prices. Our products appeal to health-conscious consumers who seek to avoid artificial flavors, synthetic colors and preservatives that are used in many conventional packaged foods. Our loyal and growing consumer following has enabled us to migrate from our natural and organic roots to a brand sold across the mainstream grocery, mass merchandiser and natural retailer channels. Today, we offer over 125 products and are present in over 25,000 retail locations in the United States and Canada.
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Table of Contents
No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Topic Introduction Three Types of Companies Type I Behavior of Annies Inc. Brief Discussion Bibliography of related articles (available on the Internet) Page No. 4 5 7 11 17
Annies Farm
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1. Introduction
In a recent article at MSN Money (http://money.msn.com/investing/8-one-trickpony-companies-to-ride-brush ) Michael Brush describes eight so-called one-trickpony companies. They are: 1. Etch a Sketch (OART), a toy made by Ohio Art, which got national attention when an aide to Presidential candidate Mitt Romney mentioned that "resetting" the candidate's position would be as easy as shaking Etch-ASketch. But, obviously they are not going to do it, etc.! 2. Annie's (BNNY): Organic and natural food producer. 3. WD-40 (WDFC), founded in 1953 which sells it famous lubricant spray. 4. Crocs (CROX), which sells cheap and goofy rubber shoes 5. Spanx which sells butt-busting, tummy-taming, thigh-thinning, undergarments (still a privately held company). 6. Select Comfort (SCSS) Sleep products, including mattresses, everything between bed and pillows 7. Google (GOOG), famous for its search engine, now may be the new tablet! It is a one-trick pony since 96% of its revenues come from advertising that can be targeted to consumers, based on their internet search and browsing habits. 8. Alexion (ALXN) which sells a very high priced drug for a rare blood disease (10,000 patients at most) In this article, we will study some of these single-product companies (hence, the funny name - like an adoring pony that we fall in love with but which knows how to perform only one single trick!). These companies generally focus on one thing, or one product, and seem to do it better than anyone else and thus produce a steady stream of revenues and profits. Investors find them easy to understand. However, there are genuine risks. If consumer tastes change (or a competitor emerges, like Googles tablet), the company can take a BIG hit and revenues will plunge rapidly. As we will see shortly, even these one-trick-ponies, or single-product companies (BTW, companies do not seem to like this "label" as mentioned by Brush in his article, perhaps, because that might also highlight their vulnerability) show a rather
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diverse profits-revenues behavior. I have considered the ten-year financial data, which is readily available at MSN Money if we click on the stock symbol for each of these companies. Only one of the eight, Spanx, is still a private company. Let us start Annies Inc.
the (a, b, p) triplet for each product. More generally, the numerical values of h and c can be deduced from the financial statements (the 10-K and the 10-Q) filed with the SEC every quarter and also readily available at various internet sources, such as MSN Money, which provided the impetus for this article. All of the data for Annie's Inc. is compiled in the tables to facilitate further study and analysis.
Slope h = 1 - (b/p) Determined by the unit variable cost b and unit price p Intercept c = - a Determined by the fixed cost, a
The linear law y = hx + c, quite interestingly, also suggests three different possibilities, depending on the numerical values of the constants h and c. This gives rise to what may be called Type I, Type II, and Type III companies. Examples of all three behaviors may be found in the real world, and have been discussed in the earlier articles (see www.scribd.com/). Air Tran, which was recently acquired by Southwest Airlines, is an interesting example of a company which has exhibited all three types of behavior during its brief 16-year history. The transitions between these three types of behavior, including the undesirable Type III transition, eventually created the conditions that led to its acquisition by, or merger with, Southwest Airlines in 2011. (In the case of General Motors, a prolonged period of Type III behavior eventually led to its historic bankruptcy filing in June 2009.) The three types can be described, briefly, as follows: 1. Type I (h > 0, c < 0, positive slope, negative intercept which also means a positive intercept on the x-axis, or the revenues-axis). Profits increase with increasing revenues. This is usually the case for all companies in the very early stages of growth and emergence into profitability. 2. Type II (h > 0, c > 0, positive slope, positive intercept). Profits increase with increasing revenues, but at a lower rate than in the Type I stage. 3. Type III (h < 0, c > 0, negative slope, positive intercept). Profits decrease with increasing revenues, or vice versa, i.e., profits increase with decreasing revenues. (Rarely negative intercepts on both axes.)
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Quite surprisingly, Type III behavior appears to be quite common and is observed with several companies in the Fortune 500 list of 2012. The consequence of these three types of behavior, taken together, is the maximum point on the graph of profits versus revenues for a company. This too has been observed with several companies, but alas, is not widely known to date. The most important and the largest of these is Ford Motor Company. Others are Verizon Communications, Yahoo, Kroger, Air Tran, Southwest Airlines, and the list seems to be growing. That is a total of 6 out of 24 (give and take) companies that I have studied since May 18, 2012. We begin the discussion here with the study of Annie's Inc.
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40 35 30
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20 15 10 5 0 -5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
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40
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30 25
FY 2010
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15 10 5 0 -5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
FY 2011
methodology for analyzing profits-revenues data, using x-y graphs and deducing mathematical equations (wherever possible) to describe the data. The readily available data for Annies Inc. and the recent article by Brush, calling attention to the highly successful one-trick-ponies, or single-product companies, provides an excellent basis with which to evaluate the implications of the simple linear law y = hx +c, which can be shown to apply to all types of companies as discussed in other recent articles by the author (see http://www.scribd.com/ vjlaxmanan). More than 20 companies from the 2012 Fortune 500 list have been studied, see bibliography list. The simple linear law y = hx + c also explains the changing values of the familiar profit margin, which is simply the ratio y/x. Since y = hx + c, this means the profit margin y/x = h + (c/x). The nonzero intercept c, which is related to the fixed costs of the operation, means that the profit margin will either keep on increasing continuously as revenues x increase (if c < 0), the Type I behavior, even if there is no change in the slope h. decreasing continuously as revenues x increase (if c > 0), the Type II behavior, even with a constant h. The profits-revenues data for FY2010 and FY2011 are given below in tabular form for convenience to permit the reader to analyze the data more critically.
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=PR&date=20120606&id=15194905 http://www.investors.annies.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=251112&p=irol-homeProfile&t=&id=&
investing.money.msn.com/investments/sec-...
slope, h
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Revenues, x $, millions 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 24.053 32.315 24.653 36.594
slope, h
The difference (Diff.) noted here is the difference in the values for 12-months and 3-months. The slope h = y/x is the ratio of the difference y in profits to the difference in the revenues x. The intercept is given by c = y1 hx1 = y2 hx2, since h is known and we can use any one of the two (x, y) pairs to fix c.
4. Brief Discussion
The graphical representation of the profits-revenues data shows clearly that the simple linear law suggested by the classical breakeven analysis actually manifests itself in the real world when we consider the two key items being reported in all financial statements, on quarterly and annual basis. Similar results can be shown to apply for literally hundreds of companies that I have studied since I first got interested in this topic back in 1998-2000. Table 2: From Annies Inc. 2011 Annual Report Revenues, x Profits y Comments $, millions $, millions 141.3 9.589 Increasing x 117.616 20.155 Increasing y 96.015 6.023 Exception in 2011. 93.643 -0.973 Losses for all three years with highest 76.751 -0.256 loss in 2007 65.563 -15.971
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More importantly, it also tells us that while the revenues increased dramatically while both revenues and profits increased dramatically in FY2010 and FY2011 (or 2011 and 2012 in table below), compared to the earlier years, there is, nonetheless, an increase in the unit variable costs b (as due to the smaller slope h) and/or competitive pressures that have decreased the unit price p. This general trend is best illustrated by considering the cumulative increase in revenues and profits for all quarters from all the ten quarters, from quarter ending Dec 2009 to Mar 2012. The data is compiled in Table 3.
Cumulative Profits, P [$, millions] Starting with quarter ending Dec 2009
Cumulative Revenues, R [$, millions] Starting with quarter ending Dec 2009
Figure 3: The cumulative increase in both revenues and profits, starting with the quarter ending Dec 2009 to quarter ending Mar 2012. This includes the three-year period, 2009-2012, during which profits were reported consistently (see Table 2) leading to recent IPO. The line segments joining the data with generally decreasing slopes suggests that costs have also increased with increasing revenues. Indeed, a smooth nonlinear curve, the power law curve, y = mxn + c, with n < 1, can be fitted to the data, Figure 4.
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For n = 1 this reduces to the linear law. However, such non-linear laws should be used cautiously (since they usually lead to either overly bullish or bearish predictions). One could justifiably describe the same data using the linear law and a statistically significant best-fit line deduced from linear regression analysis, as seen in Figure 5.
Cumulative Profits, P [$, millions] Starting with quarter ending Dec 2009
Cumulative Revenues, R [$, millions] Starting with quarter ending Dec 2009
Figure 4a: The smooth nonlinear, power law equation, fitted to the cumulative profits-revenues data, obtained from the quarterly reports, for Dec 2009-Mar2012. The equation 0.65 y = 0.85x is fitted here and closely follows the most recent data. A slight modification of this equation, y = 0.84x0.68 - 5 will yield a better fit with the data for the first three quarters (see dashed curve in the figure added below). However, caution must be exercised when making extrapolations based on nonlinear laws (to avoid overly bullish or bearish predictions). A linear regression analysis can also be performed and yields the best-fit line in Figure 5.
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Cumulative Profits, P [$, millions] Starting with quarter ending Dec 2009
60 50 40
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500
Cumulative Revenues, R [$, millions] Starting with quarter ending Dec 2009
Figure 4b: The family of smooth nonlinear, power law curves, with the general equation y = mxn + c can be used to describe the quarterly profits-revenues data, as seen here. The dashed curve with small changes in the
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numerical values of m, n, and c is added here. The solid curve has the equation y = 0.85x0.65 and the dashed curve has the equation y = 0.84x0.68 5. The latter yields a better fit with the data for the first three quarters. The former gives a better fit to the most recent data. Nonetheless, as noted, in spite of their intellectual appeal and obvious elegance, caution must be exercised in using nonlinear laws. The linear law is preferred.
Cumulative Profits, P [$, millions] Starting with quarter ending Dec 2009
60
50
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0
0 100 200 300 400 500
Cumulative Revenues, R [$, millions] Starting with quarter ending Dec 2009
Figure 5: A linear regression analysis yields the straight line superimposed on to the same (cumulative) profits-revenues data. The best-fit line y = hx + c = 0.1222x + 0.662 has an intercept c 0 (which is good news since it implies that fixed costs is NOT a major issue for profits growth). The linear regression coefficient r2 = 0.942 is very high and shows that the profits-revenue relation is a statistically significant one. Furthermore, the slope h = 0.122 is consistent with the value of h = 0.189 deduced for FY2010 (with only four data points) and again confirms that Annies Inc. is able to convert about
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20% of the additional revenues (beyond breakeven revenue) into profits. However, the ever shifting cost issues cannot be overlooked as revealed by the generally decreasing slope in Figure 3 and also the composite plot for FY2010 and FY2011 provided in Figure 2. In summary, a simple discussion of the three basic types of profits-revenues graphs exhibited by various companies is provided here, using Annie Inc., as a convenient example. The fact that it is a simple company, with essentially a single product line, greatly helps to clarify the basic concepts. The same behavior, of course, extends to many other companies offering multiple products. The three types of companies, referred to here as Type I, Type II, and Type III companies, all obey the simple linear law y = hx + c, relating profits x and revenues, y. The numerical values of the constants h and c determine the type of company. It is hoped that investors and analysts, as business leaders, including day-to-day practitioners, as well as academic scholars, might all find this simple classification scheme of tremendous value.
Table 3: Annies Inc. Cumulative quarterly profits and revenues (Dec 2009-Mar 2012)
Quarter ending Dec-2009 Mar-2010 Jun-2010 Sep-2010 Dec-2010 Mar-2011 Jun-2011 Sep-2011 Dec-2011 Mar-2012 Revenues, x, Profits, y $ millions $, millions 21.986 0.674 29.347 4.032 24.053 2.446 32.315 10.511 24.653 2.049 36.594 5.149 28.61 1.812 38.872 3.616 30.838 2.232 42.984 1.929 Cumulative Revenues, R 21.986 51.333 75.386 107.701 132.354 168.948 197.558 236.43 267.268 310.252 Cumulative Profits, P 0.674 4.706 7.152 17.663 19.712 24.861 26.673 30.289 32.521 34.45
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5. Bibliography
Related Internet articles posted at this website Since the Facebook IPO on May 18, 2012
1. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95906902/Simple-Mathematical-Laws-GovernCorporate-Financial-Behavior-A-Brief-Compilation-of-Profits-RevenuesData Current article with all others above cited for completeness, Published June 4, 2012 with several revisions incorporating more examples. 2. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94647467/Three-Types-of-Companies-FromQuantum-Physics-to-Economics Basic discussion of three types of companies, Published May 24, 2012. Examples of Google, Facebook, ExxonMobil, Best Buy, Ford, Universal Insurance Holdings 3. http://www.scribd.com/doc/96228131/The-Perfect-Apple-How-it-can-bedestroyed Detailed discussion of Apple Inc. data. Published June 7, 2012. 4. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95140101/Ford-Motor-Company-Data-RevealsMount-Profit Ford Motor Company graph illustrating pronounced maximum point, Published May 29, 2012. 5. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95329905/Planck-s-Blackbody-Radiation-LawRederived-for-more-General-Case Generalization of Plancks law, Published May 30, 2012. 6. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94325593/The-Future-of-Facebook-I Facebook and Google data are compared here. Published May 21, 2012. 7. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94103265/The-FaceBook-Future Published May 19, 2012 (the day after IPO launch on Friday May 18, 2012). 8. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95728457/What-is-Entropy Discussion of the meaning of entropy (using example given by Boltzmann in 1877, later also used by Planck to develop quantum physics in 1900). The example here shows the concepts of entropy S and energy U (and the derivative T = dU/dS) can be extended beyond physics with energy = money, or any property of interest. Published June 3, 2012. 9. The Future of Southwest Airlines, Completed June 14, 2012 (to be published).
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10.The Air Tran Story: An Important Link to the Future of Southwest Airlines, Completed June 27, 2012 (to be published). 11.Annies Inc. A Single-Product Company Analyzed using a New Methodology, http://www.scribd.com/doc/98652561/Annie-s-Inc-A-SingleProduct-Company-Analyzed-Using-a-New-Methodology Published June 29, 2012
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have many applications far beyond blackbody radiation studies where it was first conceived. Einsteins photoelectric law is a simple linear law, as we see here, and was deduced from Plancks non-linear law for describing blackbody radiation. It appears that financial and economic systems can be modeled using a similar approach. Finance, business, economics and management sciences now essentially seem to operate like astronomy and physics before the advent of Kepler and Newton.
Acknowledgements
With sincere thanks to the many Internet sources that have been used to compile this document as evident by all the corporate logos and various photographs used here to make the presentation more interesting. All of them have cited and are liberally and profusely acknowledged.
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