The Senate's Plan Makes Medicaid a Time Bomb

In the least economically defensible argument in favor of the Better Care Reconciliation Act, some Republicans have taken to pointing to an increase in nominal Medicaid spending as a defense against claims that the Senate’s Obamacare repeal cuts Medicaid. Last Wednesday, President Trump tweeted that Medicaid spending “actually goes up,” citing a chart showing nominal expenditures rising until 2026. White House adviser Kellyanne Conway and health secretary Tom Price echoed that argument over the last week as well.

Their arguments are, of course, a fiction. The BCRA’s rollback of the Obamacare Medicaid expansion to able-bodied adults, and its implementation of report finds even deeper cuts in the decade beyond. Combined with other demographic predictions, that analysis projects a landscape in 2035 where Medicaid might be unable to fulfill its core obligations, even when it’s needed most. That’s not good news for Republicans facing a recess and invigorated public opposition to their bill.