by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth

THE POWER AND PULL OF THE MAJORITY is all around us, even if we  are unaware of its potential influence. We may believe that we generally ‘think for ourselves’ and are persuaded only by strong arguments; but the fact is, when faced with the opinions of others, we often agree without a good argument — or any argument at all. We can even lose sight of what we believe in.

Books like The Wisdom of Crowds have reinforced the assumption that ‘the truth lies in numbers’. The book properly points out the value of judgments by ‘the many’ and their superiority over the judgments of experts. What may be lost on the reader, however, is that the majority opinion is superior only in certain circumstances. Accuracy is more likely found in numbers if the judgment is a matter of common knowledge. For instance, judging the number of jelly beans in a jar. Knowing who discovered the transuranium elements is a different story. An expert in Chemistry is more likely to know the name of Glenn T. Seaborg than a dozen laypeople.

Independence of judgment is another critical element. The average judgment of a large number of people can be accurate, provided their judgments are independent. If they have influenced one another, ten people might only have the accuracy of one. Herding behaviour and stock bubbles demonstrate that ‘many people doing the same thing’ is not necessarily an indication of accuracy or good judgment.

The problem is not that the majority is wrong. Statistically speaking, it may be right, depending on the task and circumstances. Nor is it that the judgment of ‘the many’ is without value. The problem is that we assume that they are right simply because they are ‘the many’ rather than ‘the few’.

What if everyone in your group expressed a judgment that you knew was not true? You might think that