Stalking Gaia: Or Is the Earth Really Our Mother and Are We Being Scolded
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Stalking Gaia - Edward J. Warmus
it.
PART ONE
EARTHQUAKES AND
HUMAN ANGST
CHAPTER 1
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES OVER THE LAST CENTURY
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
-Aristotle
The fear of the unknown expands to the limits of our imagination. That same fear diminishes not with less imagination but with more understanding.
Taking that first step toward understanding involves curiosity, courage and a disregard for comfort.
The knowledge we have now seems to work against us in many ways; it breeds complacency and forms a barrier to anything that contradicts it. Sometimes, understanding must overcome knowledge.
A. The Chart
The day science begins to study non-physical phenomena, it will make more progress in one decade than in all of the previous centuries.
—Nicola Tesla
The odyssey begins. Fasten your seatbelts, and hang on to something. This may get a little bumpy. But I promise you will enjoy the ride.
I am not going to provide any lead-in or say anything at this point, beyond what I have already provided in the introduction. I just want you to look at the same chart that fascinated me and spurred my investigation. Then, I will share with you some interesting facts about it.
The dots indicate the annual grouping of earthquakes 7.0 and higher. The trend line on the chart weaves its pattern to reflect the general clustering and magnitude of the earthquakes. With the scale on the left of the chart, you can see the actual count of these large quakes for any given year from 1900 to about 1995—not quite a hundred years.
This chart appeared on the USGS official web site under a button labeled Last Century.
This button was gone when I went back the next day, and I was kicking myself that I did not get a copy of the chart when I had a chance. I mistakenly thought the chart would be there if I needed to look at it again.
It was not until two days later that I accidentally stumbled on the exact same chart but not at the USGS web address. The new site, not sanctioned by the USGS, pointed to the USGS as the originator and displayed the chart with a link back to the USGS site where I originally found it, but this turned out to be a broken link. Hence, I never really saw the chart again at the official government site.
Organizations change their web sites all the time, and the USGS is no exception. I am not suggesting any conspiracy, or that the chart disappeared for any nefarious reason. I just wanted you to get the feel for where I was when I started this quest. When I encountered this Century
chart again, of course, I took a copy. I was not going to let it get away one more time.
B. At First Glance
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don’t believe, no proof is possible.
—Stuart Chase
Predicting the weather, controlling disease or even tracing the consequences of alcohol abuse, statistical analysis in general enables an analyst to see an underlying pattern in the data. The mathematics involved varies depending on the goal of the analyst. Various charting techniques help by providing a visual analysis, without relying on the math or a detailed understanding of the data.
Global earthquake frequency data with a trend line tracking the ebb and flow allows a person to see the wave-like rhythm of major earthquake activity. The higher the trend line travels up the Century chart, the higher the count of major quakes for that period. A lower trend line indicates fewer strong quakes. Presented this way, you can see in the charts the broad rumblings and contortions of the earth in a single sweep, without having to digest a lot of information.
The chart above marks a major peak around 1910 and remains above the average until after 1918. These were mostly war years. The next peak occurs between 1943 and 1944; these reflect huge war years. After that, the frequency data rises from 1965 until 1975, tracking the Vietnam War era.
Around 1990, earthquake frequency begins a steep climb that seems to reflect not only the loss of life due to war but possibly the growing Middle-East regional tensions, as well. The first Persian Gulf War began at the end of 1990. (The CNN broadcasts from the war zone and the scenes of destruction were riveting.) This war ended decisively 210 days later, but it upset the balance of power in the region and sent shock waves throughout the Middle East and the world.
This approach to analysis raises more questions than it answers. Is there a hard connection between the two sets of data? What is driving these waves of energy emanating from the planet? Is there a cause-and-effect element in play here? Are we causing major earthquakes? Or conversely, does this earthquake activity play any part in human atrocities.
With this perspective in mind, now when you think about it, the chart of earthquake activity begins to take on a different perspective. It is obvious through visual inspection that world shattering war years do correspond, in a general way, with the movement of the quake data as shown by the trend line in the Century chart.
C. Trend Lines
Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn’t.
—Mark Twain
Trend lines in general allow the eye to focus on areas of the chart that are important statistically. The trend line chosen for the Century chart is a 10th degree polynomial curve-fit technique. This means that the trend line forms a composite of nine fitted curves. (For the techies reading this, this method always subtracts one from the polynomial degree to get the number of curves to use in the trending process.) This particular approach is intentional, compensating for a high degree of variability in the data. In essence, a trend line plots the most direct path through the data, given the constraints of the method chosen.
However, this trend line is not the real story; it is just the beginning. I wanted to start there because looking at the raw data has the power to snooze even the most studious reader. It is not my intention to make this a discussion about statistical techniques.
Keep in mind that the trends I am analyzing extend over nearly a hundred years. By necessity, this type of data yields only to statistical analysis. If I had not seen the trend line in the Century chart, I would not have noticed the synchronicity with wars. That is the power of the math.
We will need to use statistics in the next chapter, too. I promise not to bore you with unnecessary detail. But, you will need some orientation to the data to understand my story. I will be kind; we will touch only lightly on the math.
D. Hiding in Plain Sight?
What is now proved, was once only imagined.
-William Blake
Intuitively, it seems so straightforward. The concept of a link with Earth appeals to a part of our psyche. The problem that I found deals with our use of logic. While, the intuitive half of our brain says no problem, the other half, the logical side, screams in disbelief.
That bi-polar moment lasted for days and kept me awake at night. Then fickle chance took a hand and gave me clues in the form of some scientific discoveries that I will share with you later. I found that accident would get you to discovery sooner than logic, and sometimes it is not even a close race.
Let me give you an example. The web site, pencilpages.com, tells the story of the invention of the pencil, something we take for granted today. In 1560, a tree near Borrowdale, England, fell over after a lightning strike, revealing a seam of graphite under its roots. About five years later, someone inserted a piece of this graphite into a wooden shaft, and the pencil was born.
In 1770, Joseph Priestley accidentally discovered a gum-based product that he said was useful for removing pencil marks from paper. He called his invention a rubber. Once you get past thinking that no one made any mistakes with a pencil, or needed an eraser in more than two hundred years, this really is not that amazing.
Neither of these facts stirs interest until one realizes that, logically, nobody thought to put an eraser on the end of a pencil until eighty years later. In 1858, Hymen Lipman, an imaginative inventor in Philadelphia, received a patent for this new device.
When I look at the Century chart, I think I know what Hymen Lipman felt when he put an eraser on the end of a pencil—To me this seems intuitively obvious. Actually, the U.S. Patent office said the same thing and later invalidated the patent. So much for logic.
Meanwhile back at the chart, I know that something is going on here. But what? I need to get answers to my questions. Is this a problem like the pencil and eraser, so obvious, or is it more complicated than that? My logical mind was racing, but I think my intuitive mind was having a good laugh.
Perhaps the thought of the oncoming tsunami gave me more energy than usual. I just had so many questions; I had a difficult time sitting still, so much so that I began writing this book. This is where I started.
CHAPTER 2
PLOTTING MY OWN DATA
The world is full of magic things, patiently waiting for our senses to grow sharper.
-W. B. Yeats
We need to believe in magic as much as we need to believe in our future. We count on both of them to surprise us. We need the curtain to hide the magician’s antics; nevertheless, our urge to pull that curtain back forms one of the defining characteristics of humanity. Magic keeps us alive; that urge to pull the curtain keeps us going forward.
Throughout this discussion, I make extensive use of the Internet to conduct my research. What an excellent tool. While you cannot trust everything you read in print, the Internet presents a wealth of shared ideas that deserve investigation. I cite my sources so that you may judge for yourself their validity.
1. Where Do You Find a Century of Reliable Earthquake Data?
An earthquake achieves what the law promises but does not in practice maintain—the equality of all men.
–Ignazio Silon
Given the now you see it, now you don’t;
nature of the Century chart from the USGS, I needed to get a firmer grip on the data. I decided to go back to the original tables containing historic earthquake data, build my own charts and plot my own trend lines.
In spite of the disappearing chart, the USGS remains the best source for raw data. I discovered an article there written by E.R. Engdahl and A. Villasenor, entitled Global Seismicity, 1900—1999. I read the tables of earthquakes, peeled off the counts of 7.0 and higher magnitudes and began