DATA POINTS

By

THE CAPITAL AREA COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS

[Link] JUNE 2012
AUSTIN METRO EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY SKILL, 2010

THE CURRENT MISMATCH OF TALENT & OPPORTUNITY

Austin remains one of the countrys best performing economies. With an unemployment approximately 45 percent lower than the national average, the Austin region continues to create new jobs at a brisk pace. Given this reality, Austin would appear to be a deeply compelling place for recent college graduates hungry for economic opportunity. An analysis of recently released occupational data, however, suggest things may not be as rosy as they first appear.
Today, nearly one in four jobs in the Austin metropolitan region typically requires a bachelors degree or higher level of educational attainment. During the past five years, Austins employment in occupations requiring a college degree has increased by nearly 10 percent. While such employment gains remain remarkable given the economic climate, the growth of the regions college educated population has far outpaced demand for such labor. Since 2006, the number of Austin residents with a bachelor degree has increased 60 percent more than the number of jobs at corresponding skill levels. Despite this reality, Austin remains one of the countrys premiere talent magnets. Between 2007 and 2009, among metropolitan areas with populations exceeding one million residents, the Austin metropolitan region enjoyed the highest average annual net migration of adults with a bachelors degreenearly half of all adult residents who moved to the region from another state possessed a college diploma. All of which begs the questionif Austin doesnt provide sufficient employment opportunities for workers with a four-year college degree, why are all of these people continuing to move here? Possible theories remain plentiful. Those with a college degree, especially recent graduates, may simply decide that Austin is the best place in the U.S. to be young and searching for a job; in addition to its current status as one of Americas coolest cities, Austin remains relatively affordable compared to such places as New York and San Francisco. Austins remarkably high quality of lifecombined with one of the countrys largest collegesalso plays an important role in retaining talent. For decades, underemployed college graduates have remained in Austin despite the professional limitations of doing so. Such a trend might have become even more pronounced during the recent economic downturn; given the dearth of employment opportunities elsewhere, many college graduates may have decided to stay in Austin until a broader economic recovery takes hold.

60% 50%
Associates
Some College, No Degree
> 12th Grade > 9th Grade

40%
30% 20% 10% 0%

Graduate Degree Bachelors Degree

High School Graduate

Low

Middle

High
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

AUSTIN METRO OCCUPATIONAL COMPOSITION, 2011 HIGH-SKILL (23.3%)

Includes positions requiring a bachelors or graduate degree

ALL OTHER JOBS (76.7%)

Includes positions that do not require a bachelors or graduate degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

WORKFORCE GROWTH VERSUS JOB GROWTH (SINCE 2006)

20% 15% 10% 5%

0%
Growth of High Skill Jobs Growth of High Skill Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Bureau of Labor Statistics

DATA POINTS
By

THE CAPITAL AREA COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS

[Link] THE FUTURE MISMATCH OF TALENT & DEMAND
Unless the Austin region dramatically improves the educational attainment of its minority residents, especially Hispanic residents, the regions status as one of the most educated places in the country could be imperiled. According to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, approximately 35 percent of Austins Hispanic population lacks a high school diploma; the comparable figure for Anglo residents is less than 10 percent. Lagging educational attainment among Hispanic residents is particularly alarming given the spectacular growth of this population within Central Texas. Since 2000, Hispanics have been responsible for 45 percent of the Austin metropolitan region's population growth. Austin has been able to offer companies one of the countrys best educated workforces only by importing thousands of college-educated individuals every year. In years ahead, simple math suggests that maintaining the regions high level of education by luring ever greater numbers of skilled workers will become increasingly difficult. If current trends continue, by 2040 Hispanic will represent more than half of the regions total population. Under such a scenario, the current rate of Austins college educational attainment can likely be sustained only by greatly improving educational outcomes for Hispanic residents. Without further increases in college educational attainment levels of the Non-Hispanic population, the proportion of Hispanic residents with a four-year degree would have to nearly double by 2040, rising from approximately 17 percent to 32 percent. Fortunately, educational attainment among Austins Hispanic population have increased at all levels since 2000. Gains in the number of Hispanic residents with a four-year degree have been particularly encouraging. Although the region must continue to improve educational outcomes for Hispanic residents, the proportion of Hispanics in the Austin region age 25 and older with a college degree has increased by more than 20 percent during the past decade. If Austin is to retain the competitive advantage of a superbly skilled workforce, the region must continue to build upon existing gains in Hispanic educational attainment levels.

JUNE 2012
AUSTIN METRO EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, 2010 100% HIGH SCHOOL 80% 60% 40% 20%

COLLEGE

0%
Hispanic Non-Hispanic
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

AUSTIN ETHNIC COMPOSITION PROJECTIONS (2010 2040)

4,000,000 3,500,000
3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

NON-HISPANIC HISPANIC

AUSTIN HISPANIC COLLEGE EDUACTIONAL ATTAINMENT 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

2000

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Bureau of Labor Statistics