NEW MEXICO STATEWIDE – SURVEY MEMORANDUM

DATE: Tuesday, July 13, 2021

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Tiffany Beverly – Sr. Coordinator, Insights & Client Success
RE: Survey of Likely 2022 General Election Voters

The information below was gathered by Cygnal through an advanced multi-mode (SMS + Email + IVR)
survey of likely general election voters in New Mexico, conducted July 6, 2021 – July 8, 2021. This
survey has a sample size of n600 and a MoE of ±4.00% at a 95% confidence interval.

Summary & Insights

Looking toward the 2022 elections, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham doesn’t have a strong hold on her
office. Her image is underwater, a near-majority disapprove of her job performance, and over half of
New Mexicans are ready to see another governor in office. When put up against a generic Republican,
Grisham and the GOP candidate are statistically tied.

New Mexico voters are less likely to vote for Grisham based on the fact that she supports the
government continuing to give an extra $300 per week to those who receive unemployment benefits.
The dramatic increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) plus bumps in food and energy prices also
make voters less likely to vote to reelect Grisham, as does her ignorance of the crisis at the border and
refusal to send the National Guard for assistance. New Mexicans are incredibly concerned about
inflation and nearly three-quarters are concerned about a spike in crime.

77% of voters have experience with the widespread employment issues in New Mexico. This likely
contributes to the resonance of the benefits program message and Grisham’s contribution towards
many New Mexicans staying on unemployment rather than getting a job.

New Mexicans aren’t happy about the direction of the state or the country.
56% of New Mexico voters are displeased with the direction of the United States and intensity is high,
with 45% indicating the nation is definitely off on the wrong track. Things are slightly sunnier when it
comes to the direction of the state, but not much. The majority of voters still feel that New Mexico is off
on the wrong track (51%, 37% definitely wrong track).

Voters aren’t enthusiastic about President Biden and VP Harris.

President Biden’s barely got his head above water with a 1:1 fav/unfav ratio (net fav +0) and VP Harris
is viewed negatively overall (net fav -6). Biden is viewed unfavorably by Independents/NPAs (-4) and
seniors (-4).

Biden’s job approval is the same as his image—barely positive. 48% approve of the job he’s doing as
president while 47% disapprove. The intensity of those who disapprove is much stronger than those
who approve (40% strongly disapprove / 29% strongly approve). Independents/NPAs (-6) and seniors
(-3) both lean towards disapproval.

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s image is upside down, and voters are ready for change.
Governor Grisham’s net favorability is floundering at -4, and she sits at -14 with Independents/NPAs.
Men do not have a favorable opinion of the governor, and women are split.
When it comes to job approval, slightly more voters disapprove of Grisham’s job performance than
those who approve (47% approve / 49% disapprove). Republicans, conservatives, Independents/NPAs,
and middle-aged voters disapprove most strongly.

New Mexicans aren’t keen to reelect Gov. Grisham. 52% indicated that it’s time for someone new, and
the sentiment is strong (44% definitely someone new). Support for a new governor reaches or exceeds
majority support across most key demographics, including Independents/NPAs, seniors, and women.

A generic Republican candidate statistically ties Gov. Grisham on a ballot test.

Grisham’s incumbency does her no favors as she ends up statistically tied with a generic Republican
candidate on a hypothetical ballot test (47% GOP / 45% Grisham). Women are split while men lean
towards the Republican. Independents/NPAs break for the Republican.

Grisham vs. Generic GOP Heatmap:

Grisham’s stance on unemployment benefits hurts her the most.

When informed that Gov. Grisham supports the government continuing to give an extra $300 per week
to those who receive unemployment benefits, over half of respondents are less likely to support her for
reelection (52%), and intensity is high with 44% of those indicating “much less likely”. Voters of all
stripes are less likely to support Grisham based on this information, including seniors,
Independents/NPAs, women, and low-income voters.

The fact that, under Grisham’s leadership, the Consumer Price Index has increased by its largest
12-month margin since 2008, along with increasing food and energy prices, makes a near-majority less
likely to vote to reelect Grisham (48%). A plurality of many key voter groups are less likely to support
Grisham following the message, including women, Independents/NPAs, seniors, and low- and
middle-income voters.

Grisham’s inaction on the border crisis, and refusing to send the National Guard to help, also puts her
out of step with her constituents (47% less likely). Once again, near-majorities of women and
Independents/NPAs are less likely to back Grisham after hearing this information.

Voters are very concerned about inflation and are familiar with current employment issues.
80% of voters are concerned about inflation, and the sentiment is strong—58% are “very concerned”.
This sentiment holds across the board, dipping only among Democrats and liberals, and is strongest
among older voters, Republicans, and conservatives.
Over three-quarters (77%) of respondents have firsthand experience or know someone who is
experiencing the employment issues many business owners in New Mexico are facing. Over half of
those say they have “definitely” experienced the issues, and only 13% indicated that they have not
experienced them at all.

Although their experience with crime varies, New Mexicans are concerned about a crime spike.
Voters are nearly split down the middle regarding their experience with crime. 46% have been affected
by crime (directly or tangentially) in recent months, and 48% have not. Voters 35-64, those in the more
urban region including CD-01, hispanic voters, conservatives, and Independents/NPAs reported the
highest numbers affected by crime.

Furthermore, 71% of New Mexicans are concerned about a spike in crime, with a near-majority
indicating that they are “very concerned” (47%). Women, older voters, voters in CD-01, Republicans,
conservatives, those with no college degree, and low-income voters are most concerned about a spike
in crime.

METHODOLOGY: This probabilistic survey was conducted July 6-8, with 600 likely general election voters. It
has a margin of error of ±4.00%. Known registered voters were interviewed via interactive voice response dialed
to landlines, and voters received invitations to participate in the survey via SMS and email with a secure link tied
to their voter record. This survey was weighted to a likely general election universe.

ABOUT CYGNAL: Cygnal is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm that
pioneered multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cygnal is named the #1
Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight two cycles running, as well as the #1 most accurate
polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked in 47
states and countries on more than 2,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.