1 25% of Flapper Fish have red spots, the rest have blue spots. A fisherman nets 10 Flapper Fish.

h. What are the

probabilities that :

P(Red Spot) = 0.25 = p ; P(Blue Spot) = 0.75 = q ; n = 10

(i) exactly 8 have blue spots = 108C B8 R2 = 45 x 0.758 x 0.252 = 0.28157 ≈ 0.282

(ii) at least 8 have blue spots? A large number of samples, each of 100 Flapper Fish, are taken.

= P(8) + P(9) + P(10)

= 108C B8 R2 + 109C B9 R1 + 10 10 0
10 C B R

= 0.28157 + 10 x 0.759 x 0.251 + 1 x 0.7510 * 0.250

= 0.28157 + 0.18771 + 0.05631

= 0.52559 ≈ 0.526

n = 100 ; p = 0.25 ; q = 0.75

(iii) What is the mean and the standard deviation of the number of red-spotted fish per sample?

Mean = n x p = 100 x 0.25 = 25

Stardard Deviasi = n x p x q = 100 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 4.33013 ≈ 4.33

(iv) What is the probability of a sample of 100 Flapper Fish containing over 30 with red spots?
𝐱−𝛍 30.5−25
Φ (z > 30.5) = 𝛔
= 4.33
= 1.27021

P = 0.102

2 Assume that, for a randomly chosen person, their next birthday is equally likely to occur on any day of the week,
independently of any other person’s birthday. Find the probability that, out of 350 randomly chosen people, at
least 47 will have their next birthday on a Monday.

n = 350 ; p = 1/7 ; q = 1 – 1/7 = 6/7

Mean = np = 350 x 1/7 = 50

Standard Deviation = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 350 𝑥 1/7 𝑥 6/7 = 𝟒𝟐. 𝟖𝟓𝟕

𝐱−𝛍 46.5−50
P(X >= 47) = Φ (z >= 𝛔
= 42.857
) = Φ (z > – 0.5346) = 0.704

3 The faces of a biased die are numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. The probabilities of throwing odd numbers are all the
same. The probabilities of throwing even numbers are all the same. The probability of throwing an odd number is
twice the probability of throwing an even number.

Let P(even = 2 , 4 , 6) = p ; P(Odd = 1 , 3 , 5) = 2p

(i) Find the probability of throwing a 3.

3p + 6p = 1  p = 1/9

P(3) = 2/9 = 0.222

 (ii) The die is thrown three times. Find the probability of throwing two 5s and one 4.  5 , 5 , 4

2/9 x 2/9 x 1/9 x 3C2 = 4/243 = 0.0165

(iii) The die is thrown 100 times. Use an approximation to find the probability that an even number is thrown at
most 37 times.

n = 100 ; p = 1/3 ; q = 2/3

μ = n x p = 100 x 1/3 = 33.3

σ2 = n x p x q = 100 x 1/3 x 2/3 = 200/9 = 22.2

37.5−100 /3
P(X <= 37) = Φ (z <= = ) = Φ (z <= 0.8839) = 0.812
200/9

4 It is known that, on average, 2 people in 5 in a certain country are overweight. A random sample of 400 people is
chosen. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that fewer than 165 people in the sample are
overweight.

n = 400 ; p = 2/5 ; q = 3/5

µ = n x p = 400 x 2/5 = 160,

σ2 = n x p x q = 400 x 2/5 x 3/5 = 96

164 .5−160
P(X < 165) = Φ (z < = 96
) = Φ (z < 0.4593) = 0.677

5 A survey of adults in a certain large town found that 76% of people wore a watch on their left wrist, 15% wore a
watch on their right wrist and 9% did not wear a watch.

(i) A random sample of 14 adults was taken. Find the probability that more than 2 adults did not wear a watch.

= 1 – P(0 , 1 , 2)

= 1 – [(0.09)0 (0.91)14 x 14C0 + (0.09)1(0.91)13 x 14C1 + (0.09)2(0.91)12 x 14C2]

= 0.126

(ii) A random sample of 200 adults was taken. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that more than
155 wore a watch on their left wrist.

n = 200 ; p = 0.76 ; q = 0.24

µ = n x p = 200 x 0.76 = 152

σ2 = n x p x q = 200 x 0.76 x 0.24 = 36.48

155 .5−152
P(X > 155) = 1 – Φ (z > ) = 1 – Φ (z > 1.5795) = 1 – 0.7188 = 0.281
36.48

6 On a certain road 20% of the vehicles are trucks, 16% are buses and the remainder are cars.

(i) A random sample of 11 vehicles is taken. Find the probability that fewer than 3 are buses.

P(X < 3) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2)

= (0.84)11(0.16)0 x 11C0 + (0.84)10(0.16)1 x 11C1 + (0.84)9(0.16)2 x 11C2

= 0.1469 + 0.30782 + 0.2931 = 0.748

 (ii) A random sample of 125 vehicles is now taken. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that more
than 73 are cars.

n = 125 ; p = 0.64 ; q = 0.36

µ = n x p = 125 x 0.64 = 80

σ2 = n x p x q = 125 x 0.64 x 0.36 = 28.8

73.5−80
P(X > 73) = Φ (z > 28.8
) = Φ (z > – 1.211) = 0.8871 = 0.887

7 On any occasion when a particular gymnast performs a certain routine, the probability that she will perform it
correctly is 0.65, independently of all other occasions.

(i) Find the probability that she will perform the routine correctly on exactly 5 occasions out of 7.

P(X = 5) = 7C5 x 0.655 x 0.352 = 0.298

(ii) On one day she performs the routine 50 times. Use a suitable approximation to estimate the probability that
she will perform the routine correctly on fewer than 29 occasions.

n = 50 ; p = 0.65 ; q = 0.35

µ = n x p = 50 x 0.65 = 32.5

σ2 = n x p x q = 50 x 0.65 x 0.35 = 11.375

28.5−32.5
P(fewer than 29) = 1 – Φ (z < 11.375
) = 1 – Φ (z < – 1.186) = 1 – 0.8822 = 0.118

(iii) On another day she performs the routine n times. Find the smallest value of n for which the expected number
of correct performances is at least 8.

µ = n x p = n x 0.65 = 8  n = 13

8 In the holidays Martin spends 25% of the day playing computer games. Martin’s friend phones him once a day at a
randomly chosen time.

(i) Find the probability that, in one holiday period of 8 days, there are exactly 2 days on which Martin is playing
computer games when his friend phones.

P(X = 2) = (0.25)2 × (0.75)6 × 8C2 = 0.311

(ii) Another holiday period lasts for 12 days. State with a reason whether it is appropriate to use a normal
approximation to find the probability that there are fewer than 7 days on which Martin is playing computer
games when his friend phones.

12 × 0.25 = 3, < 5 so not possible

(iii) Find the probability that there are at least 13 days of a 40-day holiday period on which Martin is playing
computer games when his friend phones.

n = 40 ; p = 0.25 ; q = 0.75

µ = n x p = 40 x 0.25 = 10

σ2 = n x p x q = 40 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 7.5

12.5 −10
P(X at Least 13) = 1 – Φ (z >= 7.5
) = 1 – Φ (z >= 0.913) = 1 – 0.8194 = 0.181