CHAPTER 11

COUNTING IN
PROBABILITY

11.1 The addition and

multiplication principles
The addition principle
The multiplication principle
Applying the addition and
multiplication principles
11.2 Permutations
Using CAS: Permutations
Factorials
Using CAS: Factorials
Calculating n Pr
Arrangements with restrictions
Arrangements with groups
Permutations problems
11.3 Combinations
Calculating n C r
Pascal’s triangle and combinations
Using CAS: Combinations
Combinations with restrictions
Combinations problems
11.4 Applying counting methods
to probability
Summary
11.1
The addition and
multiplication principles
The addition principle
Maddi is going to watch a movie tonight and she has a number of different choices. She can choose
from 3 horror movies, 4 romance movies or 5 science fiction movies.
The total number of possibilities is 3 + 4 + 5 = 12.

In an event in which you can choose a of one type OR b of another type OR c of another type,
the total number of choices can be calculated by adding: a + b + c.

Exam hack
Generally, adding the number of possibilities is associated with the word OR in a problem.

Worked example 1
For breakfast, Elijah can choose between three types of cereal, toasted white or brown bread,
or fried, poached or scrambled eggs. How many choices does Elijah have for breakfast?

Working
1 Elijah can choose only one item and in each Elijah can choose between 3 cereals OR
case the word OR can be used between each 2 toasted breads OR 3 styles of eggs.
of the choices. This indicates that the
addition principle is used.

2 Calculate the possibilities by adding the Number of choices = 3 + 2 + 3

different options. =8

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 11.1

Stockbyte / Getty Images

The multiplication principle

When there are two or more successive selections to make and we must choose from a of
one type AND then from b of another type, the total number of choices can be found by
multiplying: a × b.

Exam hack
Generally, multiplying the number of possibilities is associated with the word AND in a problem.

Worked example 2
Freda must solve one maths problem and write one English essay for homework. She is told to
select the maths problem from 8 different maths problems and the English essay from 4 possible
essays. How many different possibilities does she have?

Working
Freda must choose one maths problem from Number of possibilities = 8 × 4
8 maths problems AND one English essay = 32
from 4 essays.
This indicates that the multiplication principle
is used.

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 147

 Worked example 3
Dominic visits an Italian restaurant for lunch. He will order either a pizza or pasta. The menu
has pizzas with a choice of three different bases and ten different toppings. For pasta, there is a
choice of four different pastas with seven different sauces.
a How many different choices of pizza are possible?

b How many different choices of pasta are possible?

c How many choices does Dominic have altogether?

Working
a For pizza, there are 3 different bases Pizza choices =
 3 × 10
AND 10 different toppings. = 30
AND is the multiplication rule.

b For pasta, there are 4 different pastas Pasta choices =

 4×7
AND 7 different sauces. = 28
AND is the multiplication rule.

c Find the total number of choices. Total number of choices = 30 + 28

= 58
Dominic can have pizza OR pasta.
OR is the addition rule.

Applying the addition and multiplication principles

The probability of an event, A, is calculated using this formula:

number of ways A can occur

Pr( A) =
total number of possible outcomes

The number of possible outcomes can often be determined by applying the addition or
multiplication principles.

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 Worked example 4
William is choosing a meal from a Chinese restaurant and Leah tries to guess which combination
he will pick. He has to choose a meat from pork, chicken, duck or beef, a sauce from satay, sweet
and sour, curry or black bean, and then choose either rice or noodles. Leah guesses William will
choose satay beef with noodles. What is the probability that Leah is correct?

Working 11.1
1 Find the total number of possible Number of possible combinations
combinations. =4×4×2
= 32
William is choosing from 4 meats
AND 4 sauces AND 2 sides.

1
2 Find the probability. Pr(Leah correct) =
32
Leah has chosen one combination
from 32 possible combinations.

EXAM PREP 11.1

The addition and multiplication principles

Prep 1 WORKED EXAMPLE 1

Andrew is going to read a book during his holidays. He has to choose from eight different thrillers,
five science fiction, three biographies and six detective novels. How many choices does Andrew have?

Prep 2 WORKED EXAMPLE 2

The menu in a restaurant has 5 choices for entrée, 8 main courses and 3 desserts. How many choices
are possible if all three courses are ordered?

Prep 3 WORKED EXAMPLE 3

Carol must choose one first semester unit from three units of maths, two units of science and one
second semester unit from two units of history, two units of geography and three units of technology.
How many different two-unit courses are possible?

Prep 4 WORKED EXAMPLE 4

Samantha is planning her activities on Saturday. In the morning, she will do some exercise, and has
a choice of going for a run, a cycle, a swim or a brisk walk. In the afternoon, she can go to the
football, have a picnic in the park, go shopping or go to the local fair. In the evening, Samantha can
go to the movies, visit a friend or stay home. Find the probability that Samantha goes for a cycle in
the morning, goes shopping in the afternoon and goes to the movies in the evening.

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 149

 EXAM PRACTICE 11.1

The addition and multiplication principle

Question 1

Barney must travel from Melbourne to Darwin. He has a choice of 3 flights from Melbourne
to Sydney and 2 connecting flights from Sydney to Darwin or 4 different direct flights from
Melbourne to Darwin or 3 different buses from Melbourne to Darwin. The number of choices
Barney has is
A 18 B
13 C
12 D
72 E
27

Question 2

Lucy is purchasing a laptop computer. She can purchase a new computer which has a choice of
3 different hard drives, 3 different processors and 2 amounts of RAM, or she can choose from
8 discounted computers with set components. The number of choices of computers Lucy has is
A 16 B
19 C
144 D
25 E
26

Question 3

Original car licence plates consist of 3 letters and 3 numbers (in that order).
The number of different number plates with ‘T’ as the first letter is
A 262 × 103
B 263 × 103
C 262 × 93
D 2 × 26 + 3 × 10
E 3 × 26 + 3 × 10

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 Questions 4 and 5 relate to the information below.
For customised pizzas in Marco’s pizza restaurant, customers can choose from 3 different crusts,
3 different types of cheese and 5 different combinations of toppings. There is also a choice
10 gourmet pizzas with no variations allowed.

Question 4

The number of possible customised pizzas is 11.1

A 30 B
14 C
18 D
40 E
45

Question 5

The total number of possible pizza choices on Marco’s menu is

A 24 B
55 C
450 D
28 E
40

Question 6

Emma is completing an English exam that has 3 sections and must answer one question in each
section of the paper. Section A has 5 questions, section B has 2 questions and section C has 4
questions. The probability that Emma answers the first question in section A and the last question
in section C is
1 1 1 2 1
A B C D E
40 9 20 11 11

Question 7

Gretta is travelling from Melbourne to Mildura. She can take 2 different direct buses from
Melbourne to Mildura, or 2 trains from Melbourne to Bendigo and 3 connecting buses from
Bendigo to Mildura, or she can drive from Melbourne to Mildura. How many ways does Gretta
have of making this journey?

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 151

11.2 Permutations

WS

Ordered and
unordered selections

Aflo Co., Ltd. / Alamy Stock Photo

The permutations of a group of objects are the different ways the objects can be arranged.
Consider a race of six people where 1st and 2nd place is recorded. How many permutations
are possible?
• 1st and 2nd place can be represented by two boxes.

• Place a 6 in the first box as there are 6 ways to fill 1st place.

• Once the 1st place has been filled, there are only 5 ways to fill the 2nd place.
• Place a 5 in the second box.

6 5

• Use the multiplication principle.

• The total number of possible arrangements is 6 × 5 = 30

The number of permutations or arrangements of r objects chosen from n objects is nPr .

For example, the number of permutations of 2 runners chosen from 6 runners is 6P2 .

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 Worked example 5
Three family photos are displayed on a wall. In how many ways can this be done if there are
8 photos to choose from?

Working
1 There are 3 places to fill so draw three
boxes. 11.2

2 There are 8 ways to fill the first position.

8

3 Once the first place is filled, there are

8 7
7 photos left to fill the second position.

4 Once the second position has been filled,

8 7 6
there are 6 photos left to put in the third
position.

5 Use the multiplication principle to calculate Total permutations 8P3 = 8 × 7 × 6 = 336

the number of possible arrangements.

Using CAS Permutations

In Worked example 5, the number of arrangements of 3 photos chosen from 8 photos is 8P3 and can
be calculated using CAS.
TI-NSPIRE CAS
On a calculator press b and select 5: Probability, 2: Permutations.
Enter 8, 3 and then press ·.

CLASSPAD

Press k and tap C.

Tap Advance, nPr, and enter 8, 3 E.

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 153

 WS
Factorials
Factorial notation
The mathematical notation for n factorial is n! where n! = n × (n – 1) × (n – 2) × … × 3 × 2 × 1.
n! is the number of arrangements of n different objects.
0! is defined by 0! = 1.

Worked example 6
A group of 7 musicians are arranged in a line for a photo. In how many ways can this be done?

Working
We are required to arrange 7 people Number of arrangements = 7!
in a line. This can be done 7! ways. =7×6×5×4×3×2×1
= 5040

Using CAS Factorials

TI-NSPIRE CAS
On a calculator page, press 7 then press b and select 5: Probability, 1: Factorial(!).
Press ·.

CLASSPAD

Enter 7, k and tap C.

Tap Advance, ! and press E

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Calculating nPr WS

We use CAS to calculate nPr , but we can use also factorials to write a formula for nPr .
Consider the value of 8P3.
Permutation
calculations

8
P3 = 8 × 7 × 6 = 336.
This demonstrates a simple method for calculating nPr : find the product of r descending consecutive
numbers starting with n. For example 10P4 = 10 × 9 × 8 × 7 = 5040. This method is useful for
11.2
counting permutations without using a calculator.
We can also write 8P3 like this:
8
P3 = 8 × 7 × 6
5 × 4 × 3× 2 ×1
= 8×7×6×
5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×1
8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×1
=
5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×1
8!
=
5!
8!
=
( 8 − 3)!

n n!
Pr =
(n − r )!

To calculate 6P4 using the permutations formula, substitute n = 6 and r = 4:

6 6! 6!
P4 = = = 360
(6 − 4)! 2!

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 155

 Arrangements with restrictions
Some permutation problems have a condition or restriction placed on the arrangement.

When counting arrangements with restrictions:

• determine the number of places to be filled and draw the same number of boxes
• fill all the spaces where the restriction is involved
• fill the rest of the spaces from left to right.

Worked example 7
Mum, Dad and 4 children are seated at a football match. How many possible seating
arrangements are there if the children must be seated between the parents?

Working
1 There are 6 people to arrange, so draw
6 boxes.

2 The restriction requires the parents to be

2 1
seated at either end. The first position can be
filled in 2 ways, as either Mum or Dad can sit
in this position. This leaves one way to fill the
last position.

3 The 4 children can now be seated. There are

2 4 3 2 1 1
4 ways to fill the second position, 3 ways to
fill the third position, and so on.

4 Use the multiplication principle to calculate Number of seating arrangements

the number of arrangements. =2×4×3×2×1×1
= 48

Exam hack
Permutations with restrictions cannot be calculated using the permutation formula nPr . Each problem must
be treated as a special case and solved by filling spaces and applying the multiplication principle.

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Arrangements with groups
In some arrangements, we want particular groups of objects kept together.

When counting arrangements with groups:

• put all the objects in the group together and count this group as one object
• determine the number of arrangements of the objects 11.2

• multiply this by the number of ways of arranging the objects within the group

Worked example 8
Mum, Dad, 3 sisters and a brother are seated at a football match. How many possible seating
arrangements are there if the sisters must sit together?

Working
1 Put the 3 sisters in a group and count them The number of ways of arranging the group
as one object or ‘seat’. and the 3 other family members = 4!

S S S M D B

There are 4 objects to arrange.

2 Find the number of ways of arranging Number of arrangements of the sisters = 3!

the sisters within the group.

3 Find the total number of possible Total number of arrangements = 4! × 3!

arrangements by applying the = 144
multiplication principle.

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 157

 Permutations problems

Worked example 9
A 4-digit number is made from the digits {2, 3, 4, 6, 8} with no repetitions allowed.
Find the probability the 4-digit number is an odd number greater than 7000.

Working
1 Count the number of possible 4-digit Total number of 4 digit numbers = 5P4 = 120
numbers using nPr .

2 Count the number of possible 4-digit

1 1
odd numbers greater than 7000. The
first digit must be 8 and the last digit
must be 3.

3 Fill the remaining positions with the

1 3 2 1
3 digits left {2, 4, 6}.
There are 3 digits that can be placed
second, leaving 2 digits that can be
placed third.

4 Use the multiplication principle. Possible 4-digit odd numbers greater than 7000
=1×3×2×1
=6
6 1
5 Calculate the probability. Pr(odd 4-digit no. > 7000) = =
120 20

EXAM PREP 11.2

Permutations
Prep 1 WORKED EXAMPLE 5

Six people compete in a hurdles race. How many different ways can first, second and third placings
be filled?

Prep 2 WORKED EXAMPLE 6

A 5-digit access code is made using the digits {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}. How many codes are possible if:
a no repetitions are allowed?
b repetitions are allowed?

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 Prep 3 WORKED EXAMPLE 7

3 boys and 4 girls sit on a bench. How many different seating arrangements are possible if the girls
and boys must alternate?

Prep 4 WORKED EXAMPLE 8

The letters of the word HUMBLE are arranged. In how many ways can this be done if the vowels 11.2
must be together?

Prep 5 WORKED EXAMPLE 9

A 5-digit number is made from the digits {1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}. Find the probability that the number
made is greater than 6000 if
a no repetitions are allowed
b repetitions are allowed

EXAM PRACTICE 11.2

Permutations
Question 1

The number of ways four textbooks can be arranged on a shelf is

A 4 B
3 C
24 D
15 E
12

Question 2

Amy has 6 netball trophies that were won in previous years. If she places only 4 of them in a row ,
including 2016 on the left and 2014 on the right, the number of possible arrangements is
6
A 12 B P4 C
4! D
6! E
6

Question 3

The letters of the word PEACH are arranged in a row. The probability that the arrangement starts
and ends with a vowel is
1 3 1 1 1
A B C D E
10 5 20 60 6

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 159

 Question 4

Julie and Andrea compete in a 50-metre freestyle race with 6 other swimmers. The probability that
Julie and Andrea race in adjacent lanes is
1 1 1 1 1
A B C D E
7 3 8! 6! 4

Question 5

A four-digit number is made from the digits {1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9}. The probability that the number is
greater than 7000 is
1 1 1 1 1
A B C D E
360 6 6! 3 2

Question 6

3 students are to be selected from 4 males and 5 females in the leadership team to fill the roles of
school captain, vice-captain and school council representative. Find the number of ways this can be
done
a if there is no restriction
b in which a female captain and a male vice-captain are chosen
c if the roles are filled with students of the same sex.

Question 7

At the senior school sports carnival, the egg and spoon race has 3 Year 11 boys, 2 Year 11 girls,
2 Year 12 boys and 1 Year 12 girl. How many different finishing positions are there in which
a the girls occupy the first 3 placings?
b the Year 11 students occupy the first 5 placings?
c the Year 12 students occupy first and last place?
d a Year 11 girl does not come last?

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Combinations 11.3

The combinations of a group of objects are the different ways the objects can be selected where the
order is not important. WS

Consider a team of 8 basketball players, from which a coach must select 5 at a time to play on the Ordered and
unordered selections

court during a match. How many combinations are possible?

• The 5 places can be represented by 5 boxes.

• Place an 8 in the first box as there are 8 ways to fill the first place.

• Fill the other 4 places available on the team.

8 7 6 5 4

• 8 P5 = 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 gives the total number of permutations, where the order is important,

but with combinations the order is not important.
• For each permutation (arrangement), each player could swap places with another player within
the team and it would still be the same team.
• The number of possible re-arrangements within a team of 5 is 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5!
• So we need to divide 8P5 by 5! to find the total number of combinations.
8
P5 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4
• Total number of possible combinations =  = = 56
5! 5!

Calculating nCr WS

The number of combinations or selections of r objects chosen from n objects is nC r .

Combination
calculations

For example, the number of combinations of 5 players chosen from 8 players is 8C 5.

n
n Pr n!
Cr = =
r ! (n − r )! r !

We use CAS to calculate nC r , but we can also use the combinations formula. To calculate 8C 3 using
the formula, substitute n = 8 and r = 3:
8 8! 8!
C3 = = = 56 n
C r is sometimes called ‘n choose r’
(8 − 3)!3! 5!3!

or notice that:
8 8! 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×1 8 × 7 × 6 8 × 7
C3 = = = = = 56
5!3! (5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1)( 3 × 2 × 1) 3 × 2 × 1 1

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 161

 This provides a shortcut for calculating nCr : evaluate a fraction with the numerator being the
product of r descending consecutive numbers starting with n, and the denominator being r!
6×5
For example  6C2 = = 15.  Note that the number of terms in the numerator and denominator
2 ×1
is the same. This method is useful for counting combinations without using a calculator.

Worked example 10
Evaluate 7C3.

Working

1 The numerator is the product of 3 7 7× 6 × 5

C3 =
descending numbers, starting with 7. 3× 2×1

The denominator is 3!
7×5
2 Cancel a factor of 6 and evaluate. = 
1
= 35

Pascal’s triangle and combinations

Pascal’s triangle

1 row 0
1 1 row 1
1 2 1 row 2
1 3 3 1 row 3
1 4 6 4 1 row 4
term 0 term 1 term 2 term 3 term 4

1+3=4
Add the two numbers in the row above to get the numbers in the next row.

Pascal’s triangle can also be written using combinations

0C
0
1C 1C
0 1
2C 2C 2C
0 1 2
3C 3C 3C 3C
0 1 2 3
4C 4C 4C 4C 4C
0 1 2 3 4

Notice that if we number the rows and columns from row 0 and column 0 respectively, then 4C 3
is the number in row 4 column 3 so, in general, nC r is the number in row n column r.

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 In Pascal’s triangle:
Using symmetry nCr = nCn – r
This can be useful if r is a large number and n – r is smaller.
n
C 0 = nCn = 1
n
C1 = n 11.3

Worked example 11
Evaluate 10C 7.

Working
By symmetry, 10C 7 = 10C 3. 10
C7 = 10C3
10 × 9 × 8
=
3 × 2 ×1
720
=
6
= 120

Using CAS Combinations

A CAS can be used to calculate combinations such as 10C 7.
TI-NSPIRE CAS
Press b and select 5: Probability, 3: Combinations.
Then enter 10, 7 ·.

CLASSPAD

Press k and tap C.

Tap Advance, nCr, enter 10, 7 E.

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 163

 Worked example 12
How many different hands of 5 cards can be dealt from a pack of 52 playing cards?

Working
The number of different hands of 5 cards is a Number of hands = 52C 5
combination because the order in which the = 2 598 960
cards are dealt does not change the hand.
We are choosing 5 cards from 52 cards,
which can be done 52C 5 ways.

Combinations with restrictions

Worked example 13
A volleyball team of 9 players is selected from a group of 8 girls and 5 boys.
How many different teams are possible if the team contains 5 girls and 4 boys?

Working
1 The number of different teams is a The number of ways to choose the girls
combination because the order of selection = 8C 5 = 56
is not important.
The number of ways to choose the boys
We are choosing 5 girls from 8 girls AND = 5C 4 = 5
4 boys from 5 boys.

2 Use the multiplication rule to find the total Number of possible teams = 56 × 5 = 280
number of teams.

Sergey Novikov / [Link]

164 Nelson VCE Mathematical Methods Unit 2 9780170371025

Combinations problems
number of ways A can occur
In the formula  Pr( A) = , the number of ways event A can occur
total number of possible outcomes
is the number of combinations of event A, and the total number of possible outcomes is the number
of combinations if there is no restriction.

Worked example 14 11.3

A box contains 15 batteries, of which 5 are defective. A sample of 4 batteries is selected without
replacement. Find the probability that the sample contains exactly 2 defective batteries.

Working
1 Count the number of ways of selecting a Number of ways of choosing 2 defective
sample of 4 batteries where two are defective. batteries = 5C 2 × 10C 2 = 10 × 45 = 450
In the sample, we must choose 2 defective
batteries from a box containing 5 defective
batteries AND choose 2 good batteries from
the same box containing 10 good batteries.

2 Count the total number of ways of selecting Total number of ways of selecting a sample
a sample of 4 batteries from a box containing of 4 batteries = 15C4 = 1365
15 batteries.
450
3 Determine the probability. Pr(2 defective) = 
1365
30
= 
91

Exam hack
In a selection without replacement, the order in which the items are selected is normally not important.
Combinations are used to find probabilities in problems of this type.

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 165

 EXAM PREP 11.3

Combinations
Prep 1 WORKED EXAMPLE 10 USING CAS: COMBINATIONS

Evaluate using a calculator

5 7 4
a C 2 b C 3 c C1

Prep 2 WORKED EXAMPLE 11

Evaluate without using calculator

11 12 100
a C10 b C10 c C 99

Prep 3 WORKED EXAMPLE 12

A relay team of four runners is selected from a group of eight runners. How many different teams
are possible?

Prep 4 WORKED EXAMPLE 13

A basketball team of 5 players is selected from 7 females and 5 males. How many teams contain
3 female and 2 male players?

Prep 5 WORKED EXAMPLE 14

A chess team of 4 people is selected from 6 men and 4 women. Find the probability of selecting
equal numbers of men and women on the team.

EXAM PRACTICE 11.3

Combinations
Question 1

A bag contains 12 bread rolls, of which 8 are white and the remainder are multigrain.
Tony takes 2 bread rolls at random from the bag to eat.
The probability that at least one is a multigrain roll is
212 8
C2 212 1 211
A 1 − 1
B − 1
C − − 12 × ×
312 12
C2 312 3 311
8 8
C C1 × 4C1 8
C1 × 4C1
D 1 − 12 2 − 12 E 12
C2 C2 C2
[VCAA 2003 1MQ27]

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 Question 2

At a party, there are six unmarked boxes. Two boxes each have prizes; the other four boxes are
empty. When two boxes are selected without replacement, the probability of selecting at least one
box with a prize is
1 6 8 5 9
A B C D E
15 15 15 9 15
[VCAA 2005 1MQ4]
11.3

Question 3

A bag contains twenty casino chips which are used to represent cash. Five of the chips have value
$10 each and the other fifteen chips have value $5 each.
If four casino chips are drawn from the bag at random without replacement, what is the probability
that there will be at least one chip of value $10?
15
C4
A 1 − 20
C4
5
C1 × 15C3
B 20
C4
1
C
4
4
 3
D 1 −  
 4
3
4  1  3
E C1 ×   ×  
 4  4
[VCAA 2002 1MQ24]

Question 4

A particular box of 25 rods has 4 rods in it which have size faults. A sample of 12 rods is withdrawn
without replacement. Find the probability, correct to three decimal places, that the sample contains
at least 2 rods with a size fault. 2 marks
[VCAA 2003 2WQ1d]

Question 5

Jameel, Luke, Michael, Ben, Henri and Zak all play for the Melbourne Tigers Basketball Club.
Their coach must pick three players for their 3-on-3 competitions. How many teams are possible
if Michael must be selected?

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 167

11.4
Applying counting methods
to probability
Many probability questions can be solved using counting methods. In these problems, we often
need to determine if the number of possible outcomes is a permutation or a combination.

When analysing probability problems involving counting methods:

• If the question involves arranging, where the order is important, use permutation methods
• I f the question involves choosing or selecting, where the order is not important, use
combination methods. The problem will often mention the choice of a team or a committee.
The question may also be a selection without replacement.
• Find the number of ways of obtaining the required event.
• Find the total number of outcomes where there is no restriction.
number of ways of event A occurring
• Apply the rule  Pr( A) =
total number of outcomes with no restriction

Worked example 15
A box contains 8 books, of which 5 are fiction and 3 are
non-fiction. Ben selects 3 books to read over the school holidays.

Hong Vo / [Link]
a Find the probability that he selects at least one fiction book.

b Ben puts the 3 selected books on his shelf. Find the probability
that the first and last books are fiction.

Working

a 1 This is a combination as Ben is Number of ways of choosing no fiction

CHOOSING 3 books from 8 books. books = 5C 0 × 3C 3 = 1 × 1 = 1
For at least one fiction book, we could ‘at least one’ = not ‘none’
find the probability he chooses 1, 2 or 3
fiction books, but it would be easier to
find the probability he chooses 0 fiction
books and subtract the probability from 1.
Count the number of combinations where
no fiction books (and 3 non-fiction
books) are selected.

2 Count the total number of combinations Number of ways of selecting a sample

if there is no restriction. of 3 books from 8 books = 8C 3 = 56

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 1
3 Find the probability of choosing Pr(no fiction) = 
56
no fiction books.
1
4 Find the probability of at least one fiction Pr(at least one fiction) = 1 −
56
book using the rule
55
Pr(at least one) = 1 – Pr(none) =
56
11.4
b 1 This is a permutation as Ben is
5 6 4
ARRANGING 3 books on a shelf.
Number of arrangements where the
Count the number of arrangements where
first and last books are fiction = 5 × 6 × 4
the first and last books are fiction.
= 120
There are 5 fiction books that can go in
the first place and 4 remaining fiction
books that can go in the last place.
This leaves 6 possible remaining books
for the middle position.

2 Count the number of permutations Number of permutations of 3 from

if there is no restriction. a possible 8 books = 8P3 = 336
120 5
3 Find the probability. Pr(fiction at each end) =  =
336 14

EXAM PREP 11.4

Applying counting methods to probability

Prep 1 WORKED EXAMPLE 15

Code words of five letters are made from the letters of the word HEXAGON. Find the probability
that the vowels appear in first, third and fifth place.

Prep 2 WORKED EXAMPLE 15

A cricket team of 11 is selected from 7 bowlers, 8 batters and 3 wicket keepers. Find the probability
that at least 1 wicket keeper is chosen.

EXAM PRACTICE 11.4

Applying counting methods to probability

Question 1

The number of ways four Christmas cards can be arranged on a shelf is

A 4 B
3 C
24 D
15 E
12

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 169

 Question 2

The number of ways of selecting 2 girls and 3 boys from a group of 4 girls and 6 boys is
4
A 4! × 6! B C 2 × 6C 3 C 4
2! × 3! D P2 × 6 P3 E
2×3

Question 3

A four-digit number is made from the numbers {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}. The total number of possibilities is
4
A 5! B P4 C
4! D
4 × 4 × 3 × 2 E 5 × 4 × 3 × 2

Question 4

The letters of the word BROKEN are arranged in a row. The probability that the arrangement starts
with a vowel and ends with a vowel is
1 1 1 2! 1
A B C D E
4 3 6! 6! 15

Question 5

Four students are chosen by a class for the school council. Since no one volunteers, everybody’s
name is put into a hat and 4 are drawn out at random. If there are 8 boys and 10 girls in the class,
what is the probability of getting an even representation of boys and girls?

Question 6

A child’s game has animal cards with lions, tigers, bears, rabbits, donkeys and pigs on them.
There are 4 of each card. What is the probability that 4 cards dealt from the pack will be 2 donkeys
and 2 pigs?

Question 7

A game of musical chairs has 2 chairs removed each round instead of the usual one while the players
are moving around. When the music stops, the 2 people who could not find chairs to sit on are out.
After a few rounds there are 8 people left. If the chances of each player getting a chair are the same,
what is the probability that the next 2 players out will be Kevin and Josie?

Question 8

In a quality control procedure, a random sample of 5 motor car alarms is selected at random
without replacement from a batch of 100 and tested. The batch is rejected if any of the five alarms
is found to be defective.
A particular batch of 100 motor car alarms, which contains five defectives, is subjected to this
quality control procedure. Find the probability, correct to three decimal places, that the batch
is accepted. 2 marks
[VCAA 2002 non-CAS 1WQ2]

170 Nelson VCE Mathematical Methods Unit 2 9780170371025

Counting in probability Qz SUMMARY
Practice quiz

The addition principle

• In an event in which you can choose a of one type OR b of another type OR
c of another type, the total number of choices can be calculated by adding:
11
a+b+c
• In general, adding the number of possibilities is associated with the word
OR in a problem.

The multiplication principle

• When there are two or more successive selections to make and we must
choose from a of one type AND then from b of another type, the total
number of choices can be found by multiplying: a × b
• In general, multiplying the number of possibilities is associated with the
word AND in a problem.

Factorials
• The mathematical notation for n factorial is n!, where
n! = n × (n – 1) × (n – 2) × … × 3 × 2 × 1.
• n! is the number of arrangements of n different objects.
• 0! is defined by 0! = 1.

Permutations
• The number of permutations or arrangements of r objects chosen from n
objects is nPr .
n!
• n Pr =
(n − r )!
• To calculate nPr , use CAS or find the product of r descending consecutive
numbers starting with n. For example 10 P3 = 10 × 9 × 8 = 720 .

Arrangements with restrictions

When counting arrangements with restrictions:
• determine the number of places to be filled and draw the same number
of boxes
• fill all the spaces where the restriction is involved
• fill the rest of the spaces from left to right.

9780170371025 Chapter 11: Counting in probability 171

11
SUMMARY

Arrangements with groups

When counting arrangements with groups:
• put all the objects in the group together and count this group as one object
• determine the number of arrangements of the objects
• multiply this by the number of ways of arranging the objects within the group.

Combinations
• The number of combinations or selections of r objects chosen from n objects, where the order
of selection is NOT important, is nC r .
n n!
• Cr =
(n − r )! r !

• Using symmetry, nC r = nCn – r

• To calculate n C r , use CAS or evaluate a fraction with the numerator being the product of r
descending consecutive numbers starting with n, and the denominator being r!
6×5
For example,  6C2 = = 15.
2 ×1

Pascal’s triangle
1 row 0
1 1 row 1
1 2 1 row 2
1 3 3 1 row 3
1 4 6 4 1 row 4
term 0 term 1 term 2 term 3 term 4

Add the two numbers in the row above to get the numbers in the next row.

Applying counting methods to probability

When analysing probability problems involving counting methods:
• If the question involves arrangements, where order is important, use permutation methods.
• If the question involves choosing or selections, where order is not important, then use
combination methods. Questions like this will often require the choice of a team or a committee.
The question may also be a selection without replacement.
• Find the number of ways of obtaining the required event.
• Find the total number of outcomes where there is no restriction.
number of ways of event A occurring
• Apply the rule Pr( A) =
total number of outcomes with no restriction

172 Nelson VCE Mathematical Methods Unit 2 9780170371025