OTB forecast model (your Task version) ANSWER SHEET

wk-1 wk-2 wk-3 wk-4 wk-5 wk-6 wk-7 wk-8 wk-9 wk-10 wk-11
BOP Inv. (data input) $320,000 $280,224 $240,656 $206,008 $245,146 $210,684 $176,370 $139,238 $106,466 $280,142 $243,876
LY BOP Inv. (data input) $245,000 $222,387 $200,103 $178,852 $160,556 $142,638 $180,478 $159,994 $191,299 $168,477 $150,568
D Sales (data input) $39,776 $39,568 $34,649 $30,861 $34,462 $34,314 $37,132 $32,772 $26,324 $36,266 $35,700
O
L LY Sales (data input) $22,614 $22,283 $21,251 $18,297 $17,918 $17,159 $20,484 $23,695 $22,822 $17,909 $16,909
L TY/LY Sales variance 76% 78% 63% 69% 92% 100% 81% 38% 15% 103% 111%
A Receipts (data input) $70,000 $200,000
R
S LY Receipts (data input) $55,000 $55,000 $70,000
EOP Inv. $280,224 $240,656 $206,008 $245,146 $210,684 $176,370 $139,238 $106,466 $280,142 $243,876 $208,176
LY EOP Inv. $222,387 $200,103 $178,852 $160,556 $142,638 $180,478 $159,994 $191,299 $168,477 $150,568 $203,659

Stock-to-Sales 8 7 6 7 7 6 4 4 7 7 6
Sell-thru % 12.4% 14.1% 14.4% 15.0% 14.1% 16.3% 21.1% 23.5% 24.7% 12.9% 14.6%
LY Stock-to-Sales 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 8 9 10
LY Sell-thru % 9.2% 10.0% 10.6% 10.2% 11.2% 12.0% 11.4% 14.8% 11.9% 10.6% 11.2%
 $239,364 Ideal Category BOP *(manual formula adjustment required) Blue-shade cells = forecast

wk-12 wk-13 QTR 1 wk-14 wk-15 wk-16 wk-17 wk-18 wk-19 wk-20 wk-21 wk-22 wk-23 wk-24
$208,176 $174,114
$320,000 $223,694 $326,180 $292,175 $256,395 $227,870 $202,919 $312,288 $277,141 $247,292 $209,064 $268,892
$203,659 $184,250
$245,000 $166,397 $226,533 $208,000 $188,499 $172,952 $159,353 $144,087 $224,931 $208,663 $187,828 $169,212
$34,062 $30,419$446,306 $36,445 $34,004 $35,780 $28,525 $24,952 $28,010 $35,147 $29,849 $38,228 $34,156 $30,337
$19,409 $17,854$258,603 $19,864 $18,533 $19,501 $15,547 $13,599 $15,266 $19,156 $16,268 $20,835 $18,616 $16,534
76% 70% 73% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
$80,000$350,000 $138,930 $137,380 $93,984
$180,000 $80,000 $100,000 $75,000
$174,114 $223,694 $223,694 $326,180 $292,175 $256,395 $227,870 $202,919 $312,288 $277,141 $247,292 $209,064 $268,892 $238,556
$184,250 $166,397 $166,397 $226,533 $208,000 $188,499 $172,952 $159,353 $144,087 $224,931 $208,663 $187,828 $169,212 $227,678

6 7 6 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 9 6 7 8
16.4% 17.5% 16.7% 16.3% 10.4% 12.2% 11.1% 10.9% 13.8% 11.3% 10.8% 15.5% 16.3% 11.3%
10 10 9 10 12 10 12 12 10 10 13 10 10 12
9.5% 9.7% 11.0% 11.9% 8.2% 9.4% 8.2% 7.9% 9.6% 13.3% 7.2% 10.0% 9.9% 9.8%

*NOTE TO FORAGE: The student doesn't have to have these exact numbers in the blue-shaded rows, as forecasting is never an exact s
If their answers are within 10% (above or below) in cells Q2, AD7, and AD12, then that's fine; they've grasped the forecasting concept
 wk-25 wk-26 QTR 2
$238,556 $203,988
$223,694
$227,678 $208,838
$166,397
$34,568 $29,080$419,080
$18,840 $15,849$228,408
83% 83% 83%
$93,984$464,279
$255,000
$203,988 $268,892 $268,892
$208,838 $192,989 $192,989

6 8 8
14.5% 14.3% 13.0%
12 13 11
8.3% 7.6% 9.3%

ecasting is never an exact science.

ed the forecasting concept well.