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 Proc. Pakistan Acad. Sci. 46(4):233-246. 2009

Review
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: A GLOBAL REVIEW AND LOCAL RESEARCH
M. A. Mubarak, Muhammad Shahid Riaz, Muhammad Awais, Zeeshan Jilani, Nabeel Ahmad, Muhammad Irfan,
Farhan Javed, Aftab Alam, Mahmood Sultan

Center for Earthquake Studies (CES), National Center for Physics (NCP), Islamabad

Summary: This article reviews natural pre-earthquake phenomena such as gravity variations, radon
emanation, anomalous electric field and changes in meteorological parameters like temperature and relative
humidity. The concept of Earthquake Preparation Zone which is the first sign of an imminent earthquake is
described. According to this concept all the ground based pre-earthquake signals are generated all over this
zone. The size of this zone is dependent upon the size of the earthquake under preparation and may have a
radius of more than 300 km for an earthquake of magnitude 6. Furthermore, use of dedicated satellites to
monitor earthquake precursors from space has been presented. In addition to ground based research, the
countries involved in space based research on earthquake prediction include France, Russia, Italy, Mexico,
Japan, the UK, Ukraine and the USA. A plan is also presented for co-locating a tele-metered network of
continuous monitoring some ground based earthquake precursors with existing seismic stations in earthquake
prone areas of northern Pakistan. The present global trends in this field are a source of effusive optimism for
successful earthquake prediction to become a reality in the near future. As a matter of fact, recent results of
global earthquake prediction research promise successful prediction in the near future of hitherto difficult
parameters about earthquake prediction such as Where?, When? and How Strong? Section 6 of the paper
also describes some research work in Earthquake Prediction/Forecasting carried out locally at the Center for
Earthquake Studies. A sample result from the Statistical Method which gives intermediate term forecasting
of earthquakes is given. A novel technique of recording gravity variations from distant earthquakes was
started with the assistance of Azerbaijan. The results obtained thereof are also given.

Keywords: Earthquake precursors, earthquake preparation zone, gravity variations, Radon emanation,
anomalous electric field, relative humidity, statistical methods, dedicated satellites.

1. Introduction No part of the world is immune from

earthquakes, as can be seen in Figure 1 [1]. Most
Natural disasters cause thousands of deaths earthquakes are concentrated on the continental
and millions of dollars in property loss every year plate boundaries, the “ring of fire” around the
throughout the world, not to mention serious, Pacific Rim or the African Rift zone running from
long term social disruption. Earthquakes and the the heart of Africa through the Red Sea, Dead Sea ,
tsunamis that may result from large earthquakes the Jordan River Valley and the Himalayan foothills,
under the sea are of particular concern because for example. At least a million earthquakes, large
they generally occur with very little or no advance and small, occur worldwide every year.
warning. The ability of emergency services to
start adequate mitigation measures is thus greatly The clusters of black dots (epicenters of
stressed. Developing countries, in particular, are earthquakes) in the Figure support the common
the most affected because response services may belief that earthquakes will always return to the
not be available even in less stressful times. same place or near enough after some time. This
became the classical approach to earthquake
Dr. M.A. Mubarak, Director, (Corresponding Author)
Cell: 0302 8564994, Phone: 2077384, Fax: 2077383, email: ma_ prediction developed by Reid [2]
mubarak@hotmail.com
Earthquake prediction 234

before entering Iran. Large earthquakes such as

the Quetta (Magnitude 7.5) of 30 May 1935, the
Mekran Coast (Magnitude 8.0) of 27 November
1945 and the Muzaffarabad (Magnitude 7.6) of 8
October 2005 all occurred along or very near this
boundary in the recent past. Similar events may
occur anywhere on or near this line in future.

In addition, a large number of active faults

Figure 1. Preliminary Determination of Epicenters 358,214
Events1963-1998.
cover vast regions of Pakistan are shown in Figure
3 [4]. Earthquakes of varying magnitudes can also
occur at most of these faults at any time.
2. The earthquakes in Pakistan

As for Pakistan, one can see from Figure 2 [3]

that almost the whole of the country is covered by
epicenters of earthquakes that occurred from 1990
to 2006.

Figure 3. Seismotectonic Map of Pakistan.

Two un-deniable facts are easy to derive from

Figure 2. Earthquakes in Pakistan 1990-2006.
the above submission. Firstly, the seismic risk in
Pakistan is quite high, and secondly, the capital
city of Islamabad and the largest and the highly
The earthquakes occurred mostly along or
industrial centre of Karachi are built dangerously
near the yellow line where the Indian plate goes
close to active thrust faults (subduction zones)
under the Eurasian plate. This process is called
which are capable of generating large earthquakes.
subduction and the yellow line is termed as the
These facts require that Earthquake Prediction
Main Tectonic Boundary. This enters Pakistan in
Research in the country should be taken seriously,
Kashmir in the North, runs all the way to Karachi
of course, along with other necessary measures
in the south from where it turns westward and
aimed at reducing damage and minimizing
travels in the Arabian Sea along the Mekran coast
human suffering.
235 M.A. Mubarak et al

Many earthquakes are preceded by The recent version of the Lithosphere-

physical processes which are commonly known Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Coupling (LAIC)
as earthquake precursors. Various stages of model uses the air ionization by radon as a
development of some of these are shown in Figure primary source of variations of atmosphere and
4 [5]. ionosphere parameters observed experimentally
before earthquakes. Effects of ionization have two
branches: electromagnetic and thermodynamic. The
first one works through generation of anomalous
electric field in the near ground layer of atmosphere,
its penetration into the ionosphere and formation
of irregularities of the electron concentration due
to ion drift in anomalous electric and geomagnetic
fields. The second branch manifests the observed
changes of the air temperature and relative
humidity through the process of water vapor
condensation on the newly formed ions and the
evaporation latent heat release. This process can
also lead to the ionosphere modification through
the generation of the large scale thermal wave, its
transformation into gravity wave moving up into
the ionosphere. All stages of the described LAIC
model can be checked experimentally.

Extensive analysis of data has led the

scientists to conclude that most of the pre-ear-
earthquake effects including production of all
Figure 4. Various stages of development of earthquake kinds of electromagnetic waves ELF to VHF
precursors. may be explained as a result of the production of
3. Present trends in earthquake prediction anomalous electric field which appears some days
research or hours before the seismic shock in the earthquake
preparation zone. It has also been shown that
3.1. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere this anomalous (or seismogenic) electric field
Coupling (LAIC) Model appears as a result of a complex chain of plasma-
The lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere- chemical processes and molecular reactions in
coupling phenomenon is a complicated and the boundary layers of the atmosphere over the
vast multidisciplinary subject right from the earthquake preparation zone. Details of the physical
underground to the earth’s magnetosphere. The mechanism of generation of the anomalous electric
essential components of this model are: field its penetration from the ground level to the
 The Earthquake Preparation Zone. ionosphere and the magnetosphere, and the effects
 Radon Emission from the ground and the air that this field creates on its way at all levels of the
ionization that it produces. near-earth plasma are shown in a block diagram
 The Anomalous Electric Field and its ascent of the model in Figure 5 [6].
to the ionosphere and above.
Earthquake prediction 236

where ρ is the radius of the zone and M is the

magnitude of the potential earthquake. The
estimation of the size of the zone by Keilis-Borok
and Kossobokov [8] is in good agreement with the
above equation which can be translated into the
following Table 1.

Table 1. Predicted magnitude vs radius of earthquake

preparation zone.

Magnitude of
Earthquake in 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Preparation (M)

Radius of
Earthquake 19.5 52.5 141 380 1022 2754 7413
Prep. Zone (km)

Figure 5. Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-coupling 3.1.2. Radon emission from the ground

model.
The first thing that emanates from the
3.1.1. The Earthquake Preparation Zone Earthquake Production Zone into the atmosphere
is a radioactive gas radon (half life= 3.8235 days)
The first element in the complex chain of which plays a key role in the generation of the
events in the seismo-ionospheric coupling is the precursors that make the seismo-ionospheric
Earthquake Preparation Zone which develops coupling so practical and convincing. Radon
around the hypocenter of an earthquake. The 222 is produced in the ground from the decay of
concept of earthquake preparation zone was radium 226. Radium 226 descends from the decay
developed by different scientists, Dobrovolsky of uranium 238 which is present throughout the
et al. [7], Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov [8] and crust and has a long half life of 4.468.109 years. A
Bowman et al. [9]. This is an area where the continuous supply of radon 222 in the ground is
local deformations and their effects caused by thus ensured. Thoron 220 and actinon 219 which
the future earthquake are observed. For example, are isotopes of the element radon and are members
the deformations cause strain accumulation in the of the naturally occurring radioactive series called
crust which can be measured by strain gauges and Thorium and Actinium series, also contribute to
tilt meters [10] as well as by GPS [11], predict the effect of radon 222 in the atmosphere. This
formation of cracks within the preparation zone contribution is, however, much smaller than that
[12] and this will result in changes in seismic wave of radon-222 because of short half lives of thoron
velocity, density, electric resistivity, ground water 220 and actinon 219.
level [13]. All these changes can be monitored
experimentally. The ground surface projection of Increasing concentration of radon 222
the spherical earthquake projection zone is given which is a radioactive gas and produces a chain
by Dobrovolsky et al. [7] as of radioactive daughter products is an important
precursor itself. The decay scheme of radon and
ρ = 100.434M km or log ρ = 0.434 M its daughters is given in table 2 [14].
237 M.A. Mubarak et al

Table 2. Radon 222 decay scheme.

Historic Name Historic Name Product of

Nuclide Decay Mode Half Life MeV
(short) (long) Decay
222Rn Rn Radon α 3.8235 d 5.59 218Po
α 99.98 % 6.115 214Pb
218Po RaA Radium A 3.10 min
β- 0.02 % 0.265 218At
α 99.90 % 6.874 214Bi
218At 1.5 s
β- 0.10 % 2.883 218Rn
218Rn α 35 ms 7.263 214Po
214Pb RaB Radium B β- 26.8 min 1.024 214Bi
β- 99.98 % 3.272 214Po
214Bi RaC Radium C 19.9 min
α 0.02 % 5.617 210Tl
214Po RaC’ Radium C’ α 0.1643 ms 7.883 210Pb
210Tl RaC” Radium C” β- 1.30 min 5.484 210Pb
210Pb RaD Radium D β- 22.3 a 0.064 210Bi
52.334 MeV
3.1.3. Anomalous Electric Field mountains on 30.08.1986. According to Hao et
al. [20], the lead time of the vertical electric field
In addition to the ion pairs that the alpha generated by an earthquake of magnitude 7 could
and beta particles emitted by radon-222 and its be more than a month. Peak electric field may
decay products will produce in the air, the newly sometimes reach + 1 kV/m and may overturn with
produced atoms of heavy metal elements like negative values also reaching – 1 kV/m. The near
bismuth, lead, thallium, polonium, actinium in ground layer of the atmosphere becomes the real
the decay chain of radon and the volatile heavy plasma. Being plasma in a strong electric field, we
metal aerosols like mercury, arsenic and antimony should expect particle acceleration and excitation
entrained in off gases emanating from the ground of plasma instabilities. Just these instabilities are
will fill the atmosphere above the Earthquake responsible for different kinds of electromagnetic
Preparation Zone. These metallic aerosols could emissions from Ultra Low Frequencies to Very
become easily charged and therefore change the Low Frequencies (VLF) near the ground level
electrical properties of near ground air in the vast in earthquake preparation zone. The anomalous
expanse of the earthquake preparation zone. This electric field rises into the ionosphere and beyond
will generate anomalously high vertical electric where it also causes emissions of VLF to Very
field in the area several days or hours before the High Frequency (VHF) electromagnetic waves.
seismic shock. The scientists who reported this Measurements of these parameters constitute the
phenomenon include Bonchkosky [15], Kondo principal agenda of dedicated satellite missions
[16], Hao [17], Nikiforova and Michnowski [18], for earthquake prediction.
Vershinin et al. [19]. Increase in value of the
electric field up to +770 V/m and even a change 4. Dedicated satellite missions for earthquake
in direction to - 280 V/m thus indicating a peak prediction research from space
to peak variation exceeding 1 kV/m have been
reported by Nikiforova and Michnowski [18] Several countries in the world have already
at a distance of 700 km from the epicenter of a launched Dedicated Satellite Missions for
M=6.9 earthquake that occurred in the Carpathean Monitoring of Earthquake Precursors from Space
Earthquake prediction 238

or are in various stages of preparations to do so. 100kHz)

They are France, Italy, Japan, Mexico, UK, Russia,  A Langmuir Probe & Retarding Potential
Ukraine and USA. Analyzer (LP & RPA) to measure the
local electron and ion temperatures and
4.1. France concentration.
 A Particle Detector Analyzer (PDA) to
DEMETER was launched in June 2004. The measure the fluxes of energetic particles
science payload comprises the following: within the energy range 300keV—2GeV with
 3 each electric and magnetic sensors (6 high accuracy of pitch angle determination <
components of EM field to investigate from 4 degrees.
DC to 3.5 MHz)
 A Langmuir probe. 3.3. Japan
 An ion spectrometer, and The ELMOS project proposal is a compromise
 An energetic particle analyzer. between the measurement of the electromagnetic
emissions and local plasma parameters (local
There are two modes of satellite operation: plasma frequency). A key feature of the project is
A survey mode at low bit rate and a burst mode at the directional research of the source of anomaly
high bit rate above seismic regions. In the survey by 3-component measurements of electric and
mode the volume of telemetry data is of the order magnetic fields. The proposed payload of the
of 950 Mb/day, while in the burst mode it is 1 Gb/ satellite is:-
orbit.
 Fluxgate magnetometers, 3-component.
This mission is the first candidate to be  Dipole antennas, 3-componet measurement
considered a successful mission in terms of of ExtraLF/UltraLF/VeryLF electric field.
earthquake prediction from space [21]. The only  Electron density monitor for plasma
thing lacking at the satellite is the measurements frequency.
of electron concentration in the F-layer of  Lightning imaging sensor: optical monitoring
the ionosphere which is the most sensitive of lightning distribution.
parameter.
4.4. Mexico
4.2. Italy
The project PREVENTION (Precursors of
The latest international mission that has been Volcano Eruptions and Notable Tremors Integral
announced is the “ESPERIA” project designed in Observation) was started in the State of Guerrer
Italy [22]. Its overall dimensions are similar to the in Mexico in 2003.
proposed SSTL mission (approximately 100 Kg). The observatory is intended to be equipped for
It has a very promising payload consisting of: measurements of

 An Electric Field Analyzer (EFA) in the  DC, electric and magnetic fields.
frequency band DC-10MHz  ELF and VLF electromagnetic fields.
 A Magnetic Field Analyzer (MAFA)  Optical measurements of atmospheric
consisting of two magnetometers: fluxgate emissions.
(DC –10Hz) and search-coil (10Hz—  HF electromagnetic emissions.
239 M.A. Mubarak et al

 Over the horizon propagation of VHF Center (BNSC) and the UK Ministry of Defense
electromagnetic waves. is also under construction at SSTL. Its platform
 Radon and aerosol monitoring at surface has a payload allocation of 25 Kg and contains
level. the following:
 GPS receivers network for GPS TEC
(Total Electron Count) measurements and  Topside sounder- Antennas: 15 m tip to tip >
mapping. 5 MHz; 50 m tip to tip < 5 MHz.
 Ground- based ionosondes.  Mass spectrometer.
 Using dedicated satellite data, including  Magnetometer.
satellite thermal images.
Typically up to four passes per day will be
4.5. Russia achievable for a given seismic zone.

COMPASS (Complex Orbit Magnet Plasma There is potential for additional payload for
Autonomous Small Satellite) was developed in measurements of electric field, VLF emissions
Russia. This satellite contained the following and energetic particle fluxes. This proposal
equipments on-board. is a compromise permitting combination of
 ULF/VLF wave complex (0.5 Hz - 20 measurements of local plasma parameters with
KHz) the topside sounder which is the fore-runner of
 HF Radio Spectrometer (0.1- 10 MHz) ionospheric precursors up today.
 FM – 3 K fluxgate magnetometer
 GPS receiver 4.7. Ukraine
 Two frequency HF receiver
The Ukrainians plan to launch two satellites.
Due to a problem with the telemetry system, The first one is the “Warning” mission. The main
no information from the satellite was received. purpose of this satellite is to put in orbit the topside
A second version (COMPASS – 2) was due for sounder TOPADS developed by the Center of
launch in December 2004. Atmospheric Research University of Lowell,
Massachusetts. But due to limited finances the
4.6. UK project was suspended.

Surrey Space Center of the University of The second mission “Variant F” is a

Surrey, UK, has prepared preliminary design of a multipurpose mission to study the Solar-Terrestrial
dedicated microsatellite for ionospheric precursor relations. Another goal of the mission was to
research [23]. The proposed platform, a 100 kg measure electromagnetic emissions during
class low-cost SSTL, has on-board data storage, earthquake preparation. This mission is also under
3-axis stabilization and moderate downlink data suspension.
rate. A 70-85 degree inclination orbit between 800
and 1000 km is meant to enable good measurements 4.8. USA
of the topside ionosphere.
Quake-Sat is owned by a private US
Another mission Top Sat [24] which is company Quake Finder. It was launched in June
jointly funded by the British National Space 2003 from Russian Plesetsk Rocket Range by
Earthquake prediction 240

Eurochet Launcher. The magnetometer on-board studied the electromagnetic precursors, while
the satellite is intended to record ULF and ELF NASDA studied the processes in space and radio
emissions. Being one parameter only detection wave propagation in addition to electromagnetic
system, it is very doubtful to give confidence to precursors [27,28,29].
the real precursory event [25].
The electromagnetic precursor is perhaps the
5. Global ground-based monitoring of only reliable precursor at present that can accurately
earthquake precursors predict the epicenter of an impending earthquake. It
is used on board all satellite missions dedicated to
Regardless of the skepticism generated by research on earthquake prediction. Two developed
some circles [26] on the impossibility of earthquake techniques may be employed. The first one uses
prediction, more and more countries, even at the polarization measurements of ULF emissions [30].
highest governmental levels, realize that doing The apparent increase of the vertical component
nothing is the ostrich position of dread before the of the magnetic field was observed several weeks
real difficulties associated with creation of a real before the earthquake of March 1997.
prediction system.
Polarization is also useful because it enables
The developed ground-based scientific distinguishing between the seismically induced
systems have been created or are in the process ULF signals and magnetic pulsations. The second
of being created in Greece, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, technique developed in Russia was employed in
France, China and Mexico. It is interesting that Japan [31] which uses a triangular configuration
due to large opposition in the USA, the earthquake to detect the direction to the noise sources (and
prediction work is carried out there as a private probably epicenter) position.
initiative (Quake Finder project).
The ionospheric studies related to earthquake
5.1. Greece precursors were not carried out in Japan except for
short attempts [32,33,34], in spite of the facts that
The interdisciplinary Research Observatory Japan had 5 ionosondes, nearly 1000 GPS receivers
of Southern Europe (ROSE) is located at Gavdos and different radars and optical instruments.
Island. It started with an international symposium
in Crete in 2001. The observatory has been 5.3. Russia
established within the framework of European
Cooperation. The observatory has the usual In the Kamchatka Peninsula, the pre-
seismometers, equipment for measurements of earthquake studies are directed mainly at the studies
electromagnetic, geodetic, magnetometeric and on electromagnetic precursors in cooperation with
also the atmospheric and other environmental Japan [35,36]. At the Karimshinov experimental
parameters. range, ULF/ELF emissions, magnetic field
variations, telluric currents and VLF signals
5.2 Japan from navigation radio transmitters are studied.
The Karimshino group also works in the
Two projects on the study of earthquake direction of validation of the seismo-ionosheric
precursors were carried out in Japan for five model developed internationally. In addition to
years from 1997 to 2001. The RIKEN’s project meteorological parameters such as temperature,
241 M.A. Mubarak et al

pressure, precipitation, the key parameters like studied. The results give long term estimates of
radon concentration, vertical electric field and Time of Increased Probability (TIP’s) of occurrence
ionospheric parameters are also measured. of a maximum sized earthquake. The period of
the predictions is usually 6 months after which a
5.4. Taiwan new prediction is determined and issued. A sample
result obtained with the method at CES is given in
Considering the government support and Figure 13 below.
finances, the ISTEP (integrated Support for
Taiwan Earthquake precursors Project) of Taiwan
is probably the largest in the world. It was started
in 2002 and consists of 5 sub-projects as below:

 Seismological variations
 Variations in geomagnetic and gravity
fields
 Radar interferometery for detecting
deformation of ground surface
 Ionospheric variations
 Statistics of electromagnetic precursors

It seems that the Taiwanese have long been

ready to use their knowledge in practical short- Figure 6. Map showing CI’s where M8S has diagnosed
term earthquake predictions. TIP’s for Iran and surrounding regions, starting on July
01, 2008 for magnitude 7.0+.
6. Present and future earthquake forecasting/
prediction research at the Center for The result predicts three TIP’s (Times of
Earthquake Studies (CES) at Islamabad Increased Probability) consisting of yellow circles.
The small red dots are Circles of Investigation
At present CES is engaged in the Statistical (CI’s). An earthquake of magnitude 6.1 occurred
Prediction of Earthquakes developed by the in one area of the TIP’s. This magnitude being
world famous Russian scientists Keilis-Borok lesser than the target magnitude is considered to
and Kossobokov [8], and studying of Gravity be a foreshock.
Variations from distant earthquakes developed by
Professor Elchin Khlilov, Director of the Scientific 6.2. Gravity Variations
Research Institute for Prognosis and Studying of
Earthquakes, Baku, Azerbaijan [37]. A hypotheses on possible internal gravity
waves (IGW) or acoustic gravity wave (AGW)
6.1 The statistical method generation before earthquakes has been proposed
by many authors. The excitation of atmospheric
The method is based on a number of oscillations by seismic gravitational variations was
algorithms such as M8, M8S, Pattern B, MSc. The suggested by Garmash et al. [38] and Lin’kov et
basic requirement for this method is a complete al. [39].
catalogue of earthquakes for the region to be
The Scientific Research Institute for Prognosis
Earthquake prediction 242

and Studying of Earthquakes at Baku, Azerbaijan, Table 3. Sample details of gravity anomalies and
has developed a technique for detecting minute predicted earthquakes.
gravity variations from distant sources that have
potential of generating earthquakes of magnitude Sr.
Country
Anomaly Earthquake Magni- Lead
No. Date Date tude Time
5+ [40]. A system employing the technique consists
1 Afghanistan 8 May 17 May 4.6 9d 4h 57m
of two orthogonally aligned Cavendish balances
2 Indonesia 27 May 3 June 5.1 6d 23h
with their suspended masses arranged in the East–
3 Japan 29 May 5 June 6.4 6d 17h 48m
West and North–South axis. The system works in
vacuum, acts as a sensitive gravity gradiometer and
is stable to all disturbances except those related to Two similar systems are being installed
gravity variations. Three preliminary recordings in Azerbaijan and Indonesia this month. The
from the system pertaining to earthquakes that three systems will have data transfer possibility
recently occurred in the HinduKush, Indonesia and through an internet hub [41]. This pooling of data
Japan recently are shown in Figures 7, 8 and 9. The resources will help in better overall performance,
forecasts made on examining the recorded gravity even though the system at Islamabad alone gives
variations were successful as the earthquakes did reasonable results. More research on the technique
occur within a few days after the forecasts. The is nevertheless considered necessary.
relevant parameters are given in the Table 3:

Figure 7. Gravity anomaly recorded at CES and details of corresponding earthquake that occurred in Afghanistan.
243 M.A. Mubarak et al

Figure 8. Gravity anomaly recorded at CES and details of corresponding earthquake that occurred in
Indonesia.

Figure 9. Gravity anomaly recorded at CES and details of corresponding earthquake that occurred in
Japan.
Earthquake prediction 244

6.3. Future ground–based precursor recording

program at Center for Earthquake
Studies
It may be clear from Section 4 above that the
following ground-based precursors of earthquakes
do occur 10 to 14 days before large earthquakes
and have long been observed and employed for
earthquake prediction in isolated cases.
 Increase of radon concentration in air.
 Increase of electric field near ground level.
 Increase of ground temperature.
 Decrease of relative humidity of air.
Figure 10. Locations of seismic stations within 50km of
Continuous Monitoring of the above major tectonic boundary.
precursors and their real-time recording at a Central
Station have been planned at CES. This will be are already installed there. Signals from these
more effective and advantageous than random stations are transmitted via V-sat or through
measurements taken now and then elsewhere so radio transceivers to a central recording station
far. Sufficiently sensitive equipment for continuous at Islamabad. These stations are within about 50
monitoring of Radon in Air, Vertical Electric Field, km of the Major Tectonic Boundary (Subduction
Air Temperature and Relative Humidity with Zone). As most earthquakes in this area occur at
RS-232 ports for data output are commercially or near this boundary, our precursor monitoring
available. Spread Spectrum Data Transceivers stations at these locations will have excellent
with necessary accessories are also available for chances of recording ground-based anomalies.
transmission of data from monitoring locations
to a central recording station. PC based data Equipment for continuous monitoring of other
acquisition systems and analysis software is also precursors such as ULF / VLF electromagnetic
similarly available or can be developed locally. waves, tilt meters, gravity meters and GPS
Ideally such stations should be located at or close receivers is also envisaged to be added later as
to the epicenter of an impending earthquake. and when additional funds are available.

This is difficult or impossible as location of 7. Where? When? and How strong? [42]
the epicenter of an impending earthquake cannot 7.1. Where?
be known in advance. However since earthquake
anomalies can be detected all over the Earthquake The ionospheric precursors have been
Preparation Zone which may extend to more discovered to possess the capability to lead to
than 300 km for earthquakes of magnitude 6 and approximate position of the future epicenter.
above and since earthquakes usually occur close However more satellite data needs to be processed
to known faults where earthquake monitoring to improve the precision in determining the
stations are usually located. We have therefore epicenter position. So all the three techniques of
decided to locate our ground based pre-earthquake ionosphere monitoring namely Topside Sounding,
monitoring stations within an existing seismic GPS TEC Monitoring and Ground -Based
network as shown in Figure 10. The yellow Sounding should be applied for future epicenter
triangles in this figure show seismic stations that determination.
245 M.A. Mubarak et al

7.2. When? 7. Dobrovolsky, I.P., Zubkov, S.I. and Miachkin, V.I.

1979. Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation
zones. Pure App. Geophy. 117:1025-1044.
Only one requirement, namely the right 8. Keilis-Borok, V.I. and Kossobokov, V.G. 1990.
precursor identification, is sufficient for this Premonitory activation of earthquake flow, Algorithm,
purpose. If the decision is made that the observed M8. Phy. Earth planet Inter. 61:73-83.
anomaly is the ionospheric precursor, then the 9. Bowman, D.D., Ouillon, G, Sammis, C.G., Sornette,
A. and Sornette, D. 1998. An observation test of
alarm may be raised for the expectation period of the critical earthquake concept. J. Geophys. Res.
five days for the earthquake to occur. 103:24359-24372.
10. Yoshihisa, I, Yoji, K. and Takashi, T. 2002. Large
7.3. How strong? earthquakes initiated by the acceleration of slips on
the download extensions of seismogenic faults. Earth
Planet. Sci. Lett. 202:337-343.
A magnitude 5 earthquake has been 11. Kostoglodov, V., Larson, K. Singh, S.K., Lowry, A.,
demonstrated to be the detection threshold at Santiago, J.A., Franso S.I. and Bilham, R. 2003. A
which the ionosphere starts to “feel” the earthquake large silent earthquake in the Guerrero seismic gap,
Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1807.
preparation. The size of the approaching earthquake 12. Schulz, C.H., Sykes, L.R. and Agarwal, Y.P. 1973,
can then be determined from the size and intensity Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis. Science
of the anomalous area within the ionosphere 181:803-810.
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