Tree diagrams involving replacement Example 1 ‘A box contains three blue smarties and two green smarties. A smartie is drawn. at random and then replaced in the box. Another smartic is then drawn at random and replaced in the box, Determine the probability of: first drawing a blue smartie and then a green smartie. @) (6) first drawing a green smartie and then a blue smartie. (c) drawing a blue smartie and then another blue smartie. (@) not drawing a blue smartie on the first or second draw. (©) drawing a blue and then a green or a green and then a blue. We first represent the outcomes in a tree diagram. =2 23 PEAT B a ? $ 3x2=6 C= STs ee FIG > 23 3%3 25 3 G 3 2 6——-b-g Notice: ‘The probability of first drawing a blue smartic is 3. The probability of first drawing a green smartie is 2. The probability of then drawing a blue smartie is 3. The probability of then drawing a green smartie is - : enh 32a Si eld apd bd Fy ¥ Notice that alll the probabilities add up to 1: ee a Sth ht e-#=1 (@ (drawing a blue and then a green : ote: (8) P(dawing green andthenablue) =33<}= 8 | Thenotatonr and ci . 405 ific for ven di () _P(drawing a blue and then a blue)= 3x3= snd not really ee ne i =[2]x[2]=4 | "ee diagrams. The (a) P(drawing a green and then a green)=[2]x[2]= 3 | “Snam ples ete ag (© P(@rawing a blue and a green in any order) venn diagrams. If used in tree diagrams, it means B followed by G. [pepe eres eet ane et | Powered by CamScannerpuample2 Bag A contains 3 red marbles and 2 white marbles. Bag B contains 5 red marbles and 4 white marbles. A bag is chosen at random and then He i Eeslinthe hee: a marble is chosen from that bag and then {@) Determine the probability of getting a red marble. (b) Determine the probability of getting a white marble, —+ Ixie 4 R PS 5 Bag A z Y Nw — 4-8 k= Pd-8 r t 2 Solutions Bag B (@) _ P(Bag A then red or Bag B then red) £ alyiyl yt = ——+ 1yx4at =PSPS mio ie 8 wW 2918 (6) P(Bag A then white or Bag B then white) ai abdelxg “4-8 Example 3 Consider three consecutive soccer matches. What is the probability that the captain will win the toss: (@) every time? (b) only once? (©) _ atleast once? Wo —— dxbd=t er ee we e = NT e ec <= 57 Powered by CamScannerON = Solutions @ — PCW)xP(W)xP(W) bebe} XW)xP(L)xP(L) + P(L)x P(W)xP(L) + P(L)xP(L)xP(W) = (Pepe) +(ded4) + (dd) =hedet ) eel 8 © (at least one win) = P(one or more wins) —P(no wins) =P(L)xP(L)xP(L) a 3%9, Three dice are rolled at the same time. Find the probability of not obtaining three sixes landing face up. P(getting three sixes) P(not getting three sixes) ~ 216 = 216 ‘Tree diagrams involving non-replacement Example 1 Sean’s lunch box contains four sandwiches and three bananas. He chooses an item of food and eats it, He then chooses another item at random and eats it, Find the probability that he will first choose a banana and then a sandwich. POSSIBLE OUTCOMES S ———+s5 ls B ——+sB ate B——>BB 2 i Z 6 4 _-s ——_+3s aii 2 6 58 om, Powered by CamScanner| ail ifasandwich is chosen first and not replaced, then there will only be three sandwiches left to Thoose fom in the next event. However, there will stil be three bananas to choose from in the next event. If a banana is chosen first and not replaced, then there will only be two left to choose from in the next event. However, there will still be four sandwiches to choose from in the next event. ‘Therefore P(choose a banana then a sandwich) = 3x4 = 45 =4 Example2 ‘A bag has 6 red and 4 blue marbles. A marble is drawn at random but not replaced. A second ‘marble is then drawn and not replaced. Calculate the following probabilities: (a) P(first marble drawn is red) {b) _P(both marbles are blue) {© Plone marble is red and the other is blue) SurCOMES Solutions 4 -R ———>RR (a) P(first red) = +6 (b) _P(both marbles are blue) $ Ron an dxdeBed + —~ 10°9° 90° 15 & R BR (©) Plone red, one blue) —=——* = P(R)xP(B) + P(B)xP(R) b B =pxd + pxdaZ + $= 4 d B———>BB Example 3 ‘There are 30 dogs and 25 cats ata pet shop. The owner chooses individual pets at random and sells them. (@) Calculate the probability that the first pet chosen is a dog. (b) _Drawa tree diagram to represent the situation if BUD the owner chooses three pets, one after the other. » ,D Indicate on your diagram all possible outcomes. 2 (©) Calculate the probability that a dog, then a cat Bc and then another dog is chosen in that order. D, : (@ Calculate the probability that all three pets 30 : BD chosen are cats. 38 m7 c (©) Calculate the probability that at least one oo of the pets chosen is a dog. z Solutions o 2p 30_ 6 aD @ 2-6 o 2 2 35 11 8 Yo @ 20x25 .22 = 2178 ale c as 55 54 53 157410 5247 Ss iD @ tte 13800 _ 460 ua ~C 35 5453 5247 = DN\c © 1 i 00. SIRE 8 5247 5247 bs Powered by CamScanner