Scribd
Upload
13 views43 pages

Probability Basic

Uploaded by

fekafem262
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF or read online on Scribd
13 views43 pages

Probability Basic

Uploaded by

fekafem262
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF or read online on Scribd
INTRODUCTION To PROBABILITY Trsbabiliby Something happening ts Hee Wika Iitoad oe eae) z 4 Tafiing Valuoe % Probability : pebeeen ae a pomst doe thse litt impeserbe |i 4 an ahsolte SLE shy 2 pata Ercmpte Trobability thet a sie coin vsill land wth bead upwards = iw os 2 Geral dpnition: Gen a Semple Shea, S wih eck = re. cx asspenfed 4 ee ed a Pollersing “acioon, 2f frobahility oe Satapied GG: Fe suey Ain S og PLAY Z|. A 50, PA) = 1- PW Beompla Fre Grins ane forced StruHerensthy , Pod fe fatty wc wae A Matt ina band howe “f Fess did) “be Goins ane foie oly Seuple Spau, Soe =os2 rt) = 5, P= t-te gr BR a Q- Aldibon rate for mahally Frelasia events For muchually scchsive sve A An ine Soop Spe S, aiianed POAVAV Ap) = PLA) + ACA) E 4 PR) Wepally ecelasive everts de wef ~e eat Ta Ip te foabeblfy thet om oFry! mage oil aot (0-20, A/-30, 3l—40, wer Ht Sc iS O20, 085, v.28) 0.1, resbechvely, haf web prbebility thet on a given work cy He gornge gets efflanst 2) Cons fo Servite faa) = 0.484 vastoia = 0 Fa Qe Aldtiond rule ser Acbibreny Foes For Np eemds ASB ove vet omufually eccisive PA vs) = PLA) + PCB)- PlAnB) Cote plabity — Mdaendad finde opie HS repuied bpd te probably x7 am aut & under dbo a wecuet) i is saltae eB tad 4 4 gine acs hosted dy tea Ais Ge A teres 05 ren Grdiwd) le Space, and Hot frohability st Perefior. A) wade wrespends ce Ang 7, les P (sia) = PlAoB) P(A) # 0 PLA) WAle) = Paw), pls) 40 ple) > Plans) = TAPlB/A) = PCB) PAB) Bromple: In reducing Serewss, bof A mean "Sorew te Shin" ot B screw toe shor!" bef POA) =o. 1, Let the Condrfrenal probabil baer tn alse fev oe ae os 4 lity Aled x Serene rarmdoraly fo, food mit Le he she Se Shor} - a font 2 PlAnB) = PA) Pa/a) = o1xo.a = 0-0 Independent Evecds Ub events fm) AD Bare Cucl thet Plans) = pla) rte), fag ove called Ind pecdeed Cont. cAsuming Plalo, i18) #0 Els) = 70a) flB/A) = PC) is implies trot tr fooba bility sp chesned deperd om oeeuven @ er won pecuumente. oe B Sombteg: & hevolees ok reewdmly deasi a tae fom 4 given Sob oe why ach. D Lempling ity Ref lecement i) Som pling withendl Paplocamerst Example, A bee Codains 10 Srons, Hote og whiel ave depellve, Awe $0 room at resnchnn Fd tes frre Lily dead owe of He alan 8 deck” peters 9 thts, me af Ssh Gusidir tee eveuds Ay Fiat draum Serte i nen depecbive eae FA) = x, Ih we ample wth rflacement ; POD= 4%, 8 PCB) = yy The ancl ove. Ih debendaad lA cg) = 1A) Pip) = oF K0-72 49f We Camble eo fe : to oy Wh 7 has vccumed, fon, thee an 7 Serescs lett in tre tex, 3 xp which one decks, » PBA) = ae ? PlAnB) = Pla) P(8}a) oe Expectation “Expechtion is pwd as he forduct 4 fe posi al sing SHE suber FF stents Ee fn Fea ples ip a probabil ee ea Se fie pi ma i 93 poerds mm Hf Hews eethe den; a f= aYyrt = %, Frfectabion is an Average ecumantt a an evs} band Geend: A dependenr Bese 1S me tm thick ta poobabilily yr om evacdt hag lt ope er oes ete LB 5 ramsitfres _ i fr 100 estore nfs steel, Sta fra bal iy ae ae ee fh om le sec fe 95 Sti proberles fi ee Eat rey Fetal Be indebendued pbb 7 Exampu: @ hadele fen He 4 a ft, there are 10 fal femps. | ome ve lp (5 dram af a ranch, ofiod rca = probes lity xe if doing ) foal bY Sab facory _ Suompe ~ elt gow onfred pin is dessa A ts te pote by rors ue heads rma teifs fee & Ey ee aus imple Fa Puen) = a) = Pur)= ay Boe) Ow re 2 en ~e @ D4 oy 24 Gin Remember fete ea whieh is terfetn 4 Prbebolis) on unlikely ovcuct i Cate! Bramfle, Ee Four ap ha hiyict bulbs ina bex = ten tule are chpechie. te ae ab eardar wither replace meet 1). Nlkod 1s te. fe pebbly Het exactly me dipecdive broth 7 ii Nha is Te Pret Het acactty 2 dpechioe Lathe” | 7S PO) = the PCG) = pg tine oe i) Pokey op geting accy ome efechive full = ae = & W Fabby 3f Filky ometiy a depectve. futhe Tronplas sh pair sie sid din cx tend Aes hed is tes. pobestiy che a ive. opens . Shy Lef Pls) = Pile 5) = — ah AB pA BB —Psbabilty 9p paibetnsere Bazrale Vaiss i 4) Frobabs am Senden Yano bss 8! Pebability Bishibone Defias Korclom Variables: — ly Ay pWeodion op febehi ) weere ygten infecahd in ivik wwith tee euteome BF 4 Kondow evpen assy ° so brine aia Soul eee eet Conte he. Yovible. me nalse be defined 25 aun eee Asn cite ‘te B ) O Piserahe toi — 4 Rendom Vanub. X is said to de descrele : BE thre Gols Fath nt iepinler ria L- ity Vos A Biserele Ron dem Verb on, Ne Safe a dae countable ee unccunlehte oh Fe Biserele orden Vecabe) = Aaiek eae alae ce. = POKed) et one alge aE ee: me Kok dhmvte’ (XE =) al po) a Prey. ther P Pres) Feit ese A es cond tr pba tige 7; or fis het betty pet Puree bs) ERS, BOE pale ia" Pak 4 stone pve Pee) = P(Xax) for all Mbawop om Pax) ts Glled a Eee Pbr=x) bp SARE p ETRE D Gault. toh ty lo pes) hid hotr, £25 Spot Wabas Gils he llsig Coa - Pike =A) 2-0; fer excl Naten wothar th Pain ; - & tex) =1; sar ty a rain gaetee 7 Move ganeraily, WP X have Hee hes; pore pitines a W) Hise discrele. Rardin Vinble feof A Stent Wohas yy tap Lu i a Mies ameciled wath farm Valas are: oe hi Plxea)- & PO) ob Then Xo dxseh ood Vawable op oe Rel ¢ Ere nite: Kenan ln ratte ice hope Ahly Tao iat Pepe my pope 1 ot fn J *y U +e ei Xe R44, 5 > (ev ie pie fhe ‘ Them ples Ty ee ope een wif Ww = [-a[-1fe Vco)loleasfesleate] dhe: Melia ve d, Pamoes), Ple>=1 eferewerye @ y ZpwW-=1 D Oftvattoateistd = | “ fee H) P Cate 0) = pln) Hive 3)+ Pw) = O1+02+O3 5 0.80 it) POS") = ples) + plus e ) * ONS to-2 = c-25 ) Pltete1) = pitec) = ie Lemp A descrel random Nowcabte ¥ bas a bof ainen by at ERS Y lus bop g ae feetectes te Ply=y) {2 2c | Sc | leo fie Bd te Neloan atin Cmelant © lente. ope Pll4y23). Ww GA. les > 1535e pans PCILY £2) = aetse = Fe FHL al Ay : ‘Cones Fad Verabts £4 8 Phligbash \ Fencfion A Cotices reudlem Neviahle, can Asia On Et an inkerved wk ten! bas orgie lelon + The Sausple. Spacm us tos aan Pr am ae an, ee a chsary arrived aa rein fox 1 te AS Tis @ loth nent, Mahar ake ) attumes Volos iy bpd Lo) A rence Youcntin i Corrinne Fe ten A to 2 ee flanetion So deh, for me wh et & Flee gl [Pea de. Ths iy Be bata Dy ab tes LE xX he Beinn rams i atcumes Nahuas im he irotarved 0) The ft) lat Z, bao feeb Eo (Hp) x ig if Bent he ling Orrednes. £6) 20 frail x, plrexsd) = [fode= 8 (ode 2 Aol Rap Meh te ee en @ P(xéx) # MXLx)} be; id tx wef peseble be fale, heat the fo billy Ne readin Nowialte atbuning @ ferticidr Value? A bhad we tale Dec he foslalie | a radium Vawolte teaming evalar clha 4 pend indore The porta bolih 2 wm Varn oMe, as actos Vole vilkin agin. fected frum 429 dea it detued as He, ea vendor dae Grail of He poche bilby density frnediony asahnob Crepe : LAX be a Cobras roacdoun Vere fers Shad les fonction fo = ft odxen @ 0, efce where Beanhde 77 X bmn Coupe Ploee es) # PCrexel) Sh. e » yf b% 0 fir all x inthe Wfmal obe he. * [ee def, tft) is opdp / i) PloLexi) = [ee - all 24 M Pllexer) = PCiexz0) + P(onx el) = ot Cc trey w 4 ys \ Eten Fle tine in lowes bof (filed tw Caknnt rnb Noone mae 4h) = fee y fr xro 1, cfeewhere , ats Console © Px Ln) pacer Sb. fle) 0 fir all ; Oe ae ° some ; AZ i: 1 et |, too 2 1 Dek 108 © {See Pisce xen) eel ene oe “bS woee ee = 0 tase P(x 2rw0) ou [eer ive |, em" = 0-6321.06 —_——n ete Lamulobve Dishbuion Finelemns pa 8) random Vatable %, we dpa ek bude Le Gon, Fen) as} Fex)= Plxex) [2 Ip X deh keen Hera ot qe Fe) 15 0 mon dhevensng fy, Fa) ix origi Che Bp 8 be Oe Fe | Than: Baym Xd sol alu a a Macxeh) = £6) _ ie ae Ld X be edev with ye P= (2 tre) fo 22445 ue | 2, he whore. Debermina , dp sp X lone Compu P(xX7a) @ oe 0 fr eel it) Ch. x a wz - ' Fog = 290 = 2 EO) <1 tat te) This te an Af .. Seo fxth-y vd] Whore n= Ne & toms Re Ht Leon d= Crmen. Gommen depp rremee yo Le Som 3p deems pean AP , we FE (4#6-9)]= = % (x) F = x (us) ; = 1 for 275 va Plx>3) = I= Plxes) = 1H a eo Eeonp ls a op moh WVawiobe wlaese, Jos i a ~ fa2P%i te 7 te : 0; else where Obfaie be tp bem Oouopcde POX >%) Sh, He = f foe < [flee eel = # . Tas Fh = pone xe pease me (7 ere (x7 % = I- ay A siete aL 3 Peet ta Newrabts a Gives is rig Kw io fab: Say XK, we fod we Bars xey zz G Y= 2 45, Ye xt io irae Kat fips fue Shp pete tte, Tandy ha oe ce °, che we / ford tee pose 9p Yay? 612 The ely sales Yih me ow Yel, You # Ie Polat hey xe ee ay Corns pow dicg! fe Nha PY-1) = POA21) = Ple=) PCY 4) = Plt 4) = Plxe a, POT=D = POA) = Ply e aay a Tremp: Sohne | Site REO, 4a, 8,4 : 7 Ace whore. ae 2" SHEE: Fl 5) = = P(x) PR (Yer)= Pe + Pikes) = Fs = Y POY=4)= iets Lt 44 Ne Crp tbo 4 folifuy Pty) | | ye aH ) vy CBifectahe st Nerina se a Rovio avebi) a aves ha mar iss Ware as Ae ‘ ut ~ ae Lo, made? asta an, 2a sa Bee by Ine gob ey @ random Vauble with probabil Ret ie me ee 9 TH is given Lo)=p = 2 Kon) if HX in diel Le blonde ip Kes Condes * 3 bet X ony wih fr bi doh, ie FU gte)dee teal load oe Boar Ron, 1 then Hee 2c fecled 1 9 2Ge)) = ee *) tp X* ban { JID Pax) de son gy a (X=) - Then ; i). Fy =e, wlare © ts an arb fren Custer. if) Elem = aut by sfeoys fi bacon in) ELete)) = x E (500); share fle) © 0 fh 1) E Frat by.09]- a LB elt d4l5,00] Sin gan! F | Zecieo]. 3 ccEfawo] Se Cirrumnlor ot srmibarr deve) X boa rv wi mean Ely) 2p, He Norioce pn) ria) ty Tor Nerlx), és given by Vor (X) =. es E(x-p)e Fhoderd beviale, denoled Ly Ts Tie) = Fk Nowle)= E(x-p = E(x axyyet) = EGXY antl) we - Bet £0) =p Thasrem: bof X be ary with probably dishebube E)*— gute ye EGY ur 1 It Maw (x) @ q Vera X4b) = © Vor (X) a) Hed E LAX] = 4p Nar (ax) = & [lows)- cual I Elalx-p)J* 2 Eley)" = Bee} ) = Oar (x) Alete ‘The oppecled Yous, $e fad ad gly ey 0 efacenn Te Wace andl fe net Pte Given, +s feb : deste abn Xa Whol wate cd dl ae O. x a ea ml Tel SET 3 | My oe My 2 | Sioa) 6 ul EM eh = ere =i wy Nar \)= = Eo ye = Ana 7 7 fas 0-4 ars Ghardard Deviation - Osaeas = Tome T= vApenys a) Beams: ft te ve ar dels A [a [s | O Ver) = 2 EO pe = tie = 09390 Vee (s) = egazy: Stonderd tevialin; 6 = Toaage Exot: A Gocbrgus rinconn Varia % bas : PF gi byt) f= pe; eLaea [ © -efse whare Fad te wsecir, Sell hah,” Se hae Fa= Pepe 2 [Bae es 5 one Eq) = [eps - [ve of [hea a we g | Slaoderd deviates T= Tew pe = Ta-f1 S Es ~ Feiss ~ Goomehve 5! Bybee geometric Bement Dish: bubion - inition: A Berneull’ trial ic 2 remdom ecperimerdt Site there are only ev possible oe ood failere; eg ~ + Raigeies hrods © success Ssh bps phn dean es ee & Phoning a Call Gers Success = operator free» fells = no operator pie a A Bernoulli random varvable X fakes tee yaluas o si and P=) = § cond P(X 0) = [=p Pept Ary X i seid to bee real Bemoulli dishibubien if Hic pg as given ty : Pxe~d= LP Cp) ™ fer vc 205) 0, cthenwise We abbreviate His as Xx Be >) ee, pis te only ee hae T+ cm be easily obacked thet te any wee perp) Bernoull’ rarefens Newiable are t= pp mean Consider @ Sesueree wclowt i tevale, Suan SI ene Pl a Ey eal e a distidudio. Sf hase frobb-lity ress P (xex)= CCP et 4 cei where Se F were eo aud g< os Secs aa ee Probability oe Suceass and 9 fs foobebility ve puilags fe geo; Pitan) = et Palas wee (n-/ “te momar gg tras ne pewckd iy” ae Asap i SA npg Example : TA fiased coin is tossed ete Fe. frobohiiy note The Ee IE Ree tt ‘) P(x=a) i) Plxea) ii) PUaxesy Rum “y- P(x=a) = 6C, ¥O3" (04) = O324 135 “WP Ores) = GC, x OaF(o.9)s 0/8522 we (tee, £5) = Plrea)+ PO=3)+ Px=a) + Phen) bates = Ooty [Link]+ D.257¢ 2] = 0 Sts A gaclh' Covers! Bren in Cher eolng’ hth oot 4 Wg ae IND lagers By is com ‘ 17 fo Spesifalions, Te do this, He Fxgineer rw craly Selecta fedel, EF IL DVRs ployers from each, Li [uctionn The chy production Fs cceafrfable. provided no wrore, than Ibu Hoyer palate meet checipetions Soap eas sobre choy “Seipetion feaste be 7 Ht os the probabil te Lo; ineralty frasec a cht fy atte Sime ~ J: le EtG Fe ace act . + thet tee angie > ee dectionte be detled if Blak Wy: 1s players Gorferm fo speerp ? hole; chats mamber of DVD players inthe comple. A tists tare op fl a 9) Ale wsceut PCxe1) Pah, brow PX4£1) = Plxno)+ PCx=1) wit Linomreal paramefers 12Cox(0.20 (0-5)* 4126, 2) = 05- Plz=2) where P(2=2) is pend for the fable i jee Z, WW P@ezee) = P:e)- Pe-%); where % >2, ve ) Plz=%)= P(2=2,); whore P(Z=2,) is toad frm the feble “ot nok, we read tly positive Values frm te dabie “ay fee Prog, ) Pte Z22)- Place) + ?(Z22,) 2 peo & 2, 4-2) ee PRE) om te ) Pas ) 1 (e2) be. v, 2 Je d.5 P (22%) ore 7 ts red fo ata abt, Pa » Ter X—N (yy o*). Bad que Know Fe) = 4 (SH) fp XN Ga, 6%) than Z= XH ~ N (0,1). T4 is afte a easily shuow tet Fee) = thn ~ Corsa Indi ve - Kee hovbe fi hes £() oe & Yamdonn Vaweth for thee Semsbovdd vrarmal destruc Gan be Cafanbete Fog Sas tA faa me ub pith Seca fo vn adjusted Fy ‘ ) Fact. if thn Amel th kd ink Chadedicalion Can da axceorng hs ae i ee Seure ; = es NI). The % Store creck —fee Nuwsber danke. te data lavdare Volue is oy bow ce lop XN (9%) the» et ~ lai Placxeb) = Pl Le bs) = fe) Bias); Peamples O- A random Varable X~ (5928), Compu. PASE XL 60) Lily Me 50, 07225 g=5 Z= X=5? No, 1) 5 PUSLX LG) = P( 48-0 ZBL Gso cs Ge-S0 5 : P(-"£e 2a) Tr = Plz") + Pasa) P(2=1) + P22) 0-4 778 + O-3413 O-8185 " wu ]e detemnins Arc probability trad or Vala z is gresher dren 25 P(Z>28) = 05-225) = O5- 0-493 = 0-0v6a The mean diameter pp a Sample ¥¢ 400 rollers 2 ae eee Rollers ave aceepiable with dinmefecs * +0 68mm. pekrmriva fer pobabilihy of ay roller witkin the cele ont cd. Schubvon. JA= 22:80, F205 mn Fasits Sf AH, = 22-36-D:52 = 3483 Ag = 22-16 + O53 = 228 9 (atssex £22-¢9) = P(y.s3-025 22 4 2259-2) os oa = PCrs4 4240-78) = Pts £2 40-78) ay P(Z=-134) + P(2=0.78) PCRs 139) 4 P(a= 0.76) 0-4-0919 + 0.2823 2.6922 Sete wn 0 a

You might also like