Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Theme 18 - 20 : International Relations

Syllabus

● India and its Neighborhood- Relations.

● Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving
India and/or affecting India’s interests.
● Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries
on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora.
● Important International Institutions, agencies and fora - their Structure,
Mandate

Theme 18 : Neighbourhood, Extended Neighbourhood, Major Powers

Theme 19 : Organisations & Agreements

Theme 20 : Regional & Global Issues

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Recent Political Developments in Maldives and Impact on India

The recent electoral victory of President Mohamed Muizzu’s People’s National

Congress (PNC) in the Maldives has significant implications for India, especially
given the strategic importance of the island nation in the Indian Ocean region. The
evolving political and foreign policy landscape under Muizzu presents a delicate
situation for New Delhi. As Muizzu strengthens ties with China, India faces new
challenges in maintaining its historically strong relationship with the Maldives. This
section delves into how the electoral outcome impacts India, the strategic importance
of the Maldives to India, and the future of Maldives-India relations under Muizzu's
administration.

Strategic Importance of Maldives for India

1. Geopolitical Positioning in the Indian Ocean: The Maldives sits along

major international shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean, making it a strategic
location for India’s maritime security. The Maldives' proximity to India’s
Lakshadweep Islands and the southern Indian coastline adds to its
importance in India's maritime defence strategy. A stable and friendly
Maldives helps India secure its influence in the region, ensuring free and safe
passage for commercial and military vessels.
2. Security Interests: For India, maintaining a friendly relationship with the
Maldives is crucial for countering Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. India
has long supported the Maldives’ security infrastructure by providing military
assistance, training, and equipment. The withdrawal of Indian military
personnel following Muizzu’s electoral promise and the strengthening of
Maldives-China defence ties could diminish India's influence in the region.
The possibility of the Maldives becoming a key node in China’s "string of
pearls" strategy—where China aims to establish a network of military and
commercial facilities along the Indian Ocean—poses a direct threat to India’s
strategic interests.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

3. Regional Stability and Cooperation: India views the Maldives as a partner

in ensuring regional stability, particularly in combating terrorism, piracy, and
illegal maritime activities. The trilateral Coast Guard exercises, such as the
"Dosti" exercises involving India, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, exemplify the
importance of Maldives' cooperation in maintaining regional security. Any shift
in Malé’s foreign policy toward China could weaken these regional
collaborations, impacting India’s border security objectives.

Impact of Muizzu’s Victory on India-Maldives Relations

1. Shift in Foreign Policy Alignment

Muizzu’s administration is clearly leaning toward China, which challenges India’s

traditional dominance in the Maldives. His decision to reduce dependence on India
and increase cooperation with China—particularly in infrastructure and
defence—signals a reorientation of Maldives’ foreign policy. The signing of over 20
Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) between Maldives and China in sectors
such as blue economy, digital economy, and green technology, as well as China's
involvement in community development projects, illustrates the deepening of bilateral
ties.

For India, the increased Chinese presence in the Maldives threatens its strategic
interests, particularly because of the defense agreements between Maldives and
China. China’s growing influence in critical infrastructure projects, such as the
expansion of Velana Airport and the development of Ras Malé Island, positions
Beijing to potentially challenge India’s security architecture in the Indian Ocean.

2. Defense Cooperation and Security Concerns

India’s defence cooperation with the Maldives has historically been a cornerstone of
their bilateral relations. India has provided maritime patrol vessels, helicopters, and
training for the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF). However, Muizzu’s
government has initiated moves to scale back Indian military involvement, starting
with the withdrawal of Indian military personnel operating and maintaining aerial
platforms. This not only reduces India’s direct defense engagement but also gives
China room to expand its military cooperation with the Maldives.

The Chinese presence at strategic locations, such as the proposed development of

the Kadhdhoo Airport (previously used by Indian military personnel), is particularly
concerning. The development of such infrastructure could provide China with greater
intelligence-gathering capabilities in the Indian Ocean and undermine India’s
regional dominance. This development mirrors broader concerns about China's
growing military and commercial presence in India's immediate neighbourhood,
including Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

3. Economic Relations and Development Assistance

Despite the pro-China tilt, India remains a critical economic partner for the Maldives.
The Indian government has invested heavily in infrastructure projects, such as the
construction of the Thilamalé sea-bridge, which is designed to connect the capital
Malé to surrounding islands. The continuation of these projects, even under Muizzu’s
administration, suggests that the Maldives is likely to maintain a working relationship
with India, especially when it comes to economic development.

India has also extended lines of credit and financial aid to the Maldives. For instance,
India granted a $100 million budgetary support package during the economic
downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, India fast-tracked a debt
rollover for the Maldives, postponing the repayment of $100 million owed to the State
Bank of India (SBI). These economic ties provide India with significant leverage, and
it is unlikely that the Maldives will sever these relationships entirely. However, the
Maldives' attempt to diversify its economic dependencies—by pursuing deals with
China, Turkey, and the UAE—could reduce India’s economic influence over time.

4. Tourism and People-to-People Links

Tourism is a vital sector for the Maldivian economy, with India being a top source of
tourists. In recent years, Indian tourists have consistently ranked among the highest
in terms of arrivals to the Maldives. A deterioration in political relations, as witnessed
by the "Boycott Maldives" campaign trending on Indian social media, could
negatively impact this critical economic sector. However, Muizzu’s government is
likely to recognize the importance of Indian tourism and seek to maintain good
relations in this area, even as it pursues other foreign policy objectives.

Moreover, the historical cultural and people-to-people ties between India and the
Maldives remain strong. Many Maldivians travel to India for education, healthcare,
and employment. While Muizzu may attempt to reduce dependency on India in
certain sectors, such as healthcare (by engaging with UAE and Thailand for health
insurance), the deep-rooted connections between the two countries are likely to
endure.

Future of India-Maldives Relations under Muizzu

Despite the challenges posed by Muizzu’s pro-China tilt, there are signs that the
Maldives will not completely alienate India. Several factors suggest that the new
government will pursue a more pragmatic foreign policy, balancing relations with
both India and China:

1. Pragmatism in Foreign Policy: Muizzu has indicated that he recognizes the

importance of India’s geographical proximity and economic support. His
administration will likely attempt to diversify relations without fully distancing

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

itself from India. The need for continued economic aid, debt relief, and trade
with India will act as a stabilising factor in bilateral relations.
2. Economic Leverage: India’s ongoing development projects, including the
Thilamalé Bridge, will provide an avenue for continued engagement. As long
as India continues to support large-scale infrastructure development and
provides critical financial assistance, the Maldives will have incentives to
maintain a cooperative relationship.
3. Managing Security Concerns: While the reduction of India’s military footprint
in the Maldives is a setback, it does not preclude future defence cooperation.
India’s offer to train Maldivian pilots and maintain technical assistance in
non-military capacities presents opportunities for continued collaboration in
the security sector. Furthermore, India’s participation in multilateral initiatives,
such as the Dosti Coast Guard exercises, suggests that cooperation on
regional security issues will continue.
4. Navigating China’s Influence: While China’s strategic investments in the
Maldives are growing, Muizzu will need to balance this relationship carefully.
The debt trap risks associated with Chinese loans are a known issue in the
Maldives, as seen in other nations like Sri Lanka. The Maldives' economic
vulnerability may eventually push Muizzu’s government to reconsider
over-reliance on China, particularly if Chinese investments lead to
unsustainable debt levels.

Conclusion: India’s Role in a Changing Landscape

India-Maldives relations are at a critical juncture. Muizzu’s administration is clearly

exploring ways to reduce dependency on India while strengthening ties with China.
However, the historical, geographical, and economic ties between India and the
Maldives will make a complete shift toward China unlikely. India’s strategy moving
forward will need to focus on maintaining its influence through economic assistance,
infrastructure development, and regional security cooperation.

For India, the challenge lies in adapting to the new geopolitical reality in the Maldives
without appearing overbearing. By offering flexible economic support, ensuring
continued defence cooperation where possible, and fostering people-to-people ties,
India can maintain a foothold in the Maldives despite the rising Chinese influence. At
the same time, India must be prepared for increased competition from China as both
powers vie for influence in this strategically important island nation.

Analytical Note on India-Bangladesh Relations: A Comprehensive Overview

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

India-Bangladesh relations have evolved significantly over the past decade,

encompassing a wide array of dimensions including economic, political, strategic,
cultural, and environmental aspects. The relationship between these two neighbors
has been shaped by shared histories, geographical proximity, mutual interests, and
evolving geopolitical considerations. Below is a detailed analysis of the various
dimensions of the India-Bangladesh relationship.

Historical and Political Context

The foundation of India-Bangladesh relations was laid during Bangladesh’s War of

Liberation in 1971, when India played a critical role in supporting the Bangladeshi
independence movement against Pakistan. This historical connection has long
influenced bilateral ties, creating an inherent link between the two nations. Over the
decades, the political landscape has experienced ebbs and flows, largely driven by
the ruling parties in both countries.

The Awami League (AL), under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, has maintained a
pro-India stance, strengthening bilateral cooperation in various domains. Her tenure
from 2009 until 2024, marked a period of remarkable bilateral cooperation, often
referred to as the “Golden Chapter” of India-Bangladesh relations. Hasina’s
resignation in 2024 following student-led protests and her eventual ouster marked a
political shift in Bangladesh that has the potential to redefine the relationship
between Dhaka and New Delhi.

The emergence of Muhammad Yunus as the head of the interim government has
created a unique situation. With no representation from the AL in the interim cabinet,
the relationship is in flux. However, the Yunus government has not yet distanced
itself from India. On the contrary, political commentators highlight India’s efforts to
maintain stability and cooperation, given Bangladesh's geostrategic importance to
India’s Neighborhood First and Act East policies.

Economic Dimensions

The economic dimension of India-Bangladesh relations has seen robust growth over
the years. Bangladesh has undergone a significant economic transformation, driven
by its Ready-Made Garment (RMG) sector, which has led to rising export revenues.
India, as Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in South Asia, plays a critical role in
this economic growth. Bilateral trade between the two nations reached $15.9 billion
in FY 2022-23, with India exporting $13.8 billion worth of goods to Bangladesh.
India’s geographical proximity gives it a natural trade advantage, while
Bangladesh heavily relies on Indian raw materials, such as cotton, to sustain its
RMG sector.

However, the "India Out" campaign, spearheaded by the Bangladesh Nationalist

Party (BNP), has politicised these economic relations. By calling for a boycott of

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Indian goods, the BNP aims to weaken the economic foundations of the bilateral
relationship. This rhetoric could harm both nations, given their interdependent
economies. Additionally, Bangladesh faces significant challenges, including rising
inflation, energy shortages, and a balance of payments deficit. Given these
issues, sustaining economic ties with India remains crucial for Dhaka’s economic
stability.

Strategic and Geopolitical Considerations

Geopolitically, Bangladesh holds immense strategic value in the Bay of Bengal, a

region of growing interest for global powers like China and the United States. For
India, Bangladesh is crucial for regional connectivity and as a buffer state against
Chinese influence. India has invested heavily in connectivity projects, such as the
Chattogram and Mongla seaports, which facilitate trade between India’s
Northeastern states and the rest of the country.

However, China's increasing investments in Bangladesh, particularly in the maritime

sector and the construction of Bangladesh’s first submarine base at Cox’s Bazaar,
pose strategic challenges for India. China’s strategic foothold in Bangladesh and the
Bay of Bengal raises concerns in New Delhi, as it brings Chinese military and
economic interests closer to India’s maritime boundaries.

The St. Martin’s Island controversy, where former Prime Minister Hasina alleged
U.S. interest in gaining control over the island for a military base, also reflects the
growing geopolitical competition in the region. While the United States may not
pursue direct basing in the region, its desire to counter Chinese influence in the
Indian Ocean aligns with India's strategic objectives. The shift in the balance of
power in Bangladesh, marked by the possible rise of BNP or Islamic factions such as
Jamaat-e-Islami, could complicate India’s efforts to counter Chinese influence.

Security Concerns and Border Management

The departure of the Hasina government has raised concerns about the security
dynamics in India’s Northeast, where insurgent groups often sought refuge in
Bangladesh before Hasina’s “zero-tolerance” policy on terrorism. With rising political
instability and the resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami—an Islamist political group known
for its anti-India stance—the security of the Indo-Bangladesh border has become a
priority for New Delhi. India has already ramped up security measures, sealing its
borders and increasing vigilance.

Additionally, the impact of climate change and migration from Bangladesh,

particularly of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, poses another security and
humanitarian challenge for both nations. Any future instability in Bangladesh could
result in an influx of refugees across the border into India, exacerbating tensions in
the region.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Cultural and People-to-People Ties

India and Bangladesh share deep cultural, linguistic, and historical ties, which have
long been the backbone of their bilateral relationship. These people-to-people
connections have fostered a strong relationship despite political tensions. For
instance, the Bengali language and shared cultural heritage between the people of
West Bengal and Bangladesh play a significant role in fostering goodwill and mutual
understanding.

However, the rise of the "India Out" campaign, spurred by nationalist and religious
rhetoric, threatens to erode these cultural ties. Anti-India sentiments, especially as
seen in social media mobilization in Bangladesh, could strain the goodwill that has
been carefully nurtured over decades.

Environmental and Ecological Cooperation

India and Bangladesh share critical environmental and ecological concerns,

particularly related to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin, which
feeds into the Bengal Delta. Climate change has exacerbated vulnerabilities in the
delta region, making cooperation on water-sharing agreements like the Teesta
River Agreement imperative.

However, the lack of progress on these agreements has led to discontent in

Bangladesh. India’s upstream control of the river systems often creates water
scarcity issues in downstream Bangladesh, especially in times of drought.
Cooperation in disaster management is crucial, given that both nations are frequently
affected by floods, cyclones, and other natural disasters. Bangladesh’s Delta Plan
2100, aimed at combating climate change impacts, could benefit from joint initiatives
with India on river management and disaster preparedness.

Future Prospects

The future of India-Bangladesh relations hinges on several factors, including the

stability of the interim government, the potential return of BNP or Islamic factions to
power, and the evolving geopolitical competition between global powers in the
region. While the departure of Sheikh Hasina marks the end of a favorable chapter
for India, the geographical, economic, and strategic realities of the region make
cooperation between the two nations inevitable.

New Delhi must engage with Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape while
maintaining strong economic and strategic ties. India should also focus on
addressing long-standing bilateral issues, such as the Teesta water-sharing
dispute, and invest in infrastructure projects that enhance connectivity and trade.
Equally important is countering anti-India narratives propagated by the BNP and
other political factions through sustained diplomatic and cultural engagement.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Conclusion

India-Bangladesh relations are complex and multifaceted, influenced by historical

connections, shared cultural ties, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. The departure
of Sheikh Hasina introduces new uncertainties, but the economic, strategic, and
security interests of both nations are intertwined in ways that make cooperation
essential. As both countries navigate these changes, the focus must remain on
strengthening mutual interests while addressing emerging challenges in a rapidly
shifting global order.

Note on BRICS: A Multidimensional Perspective

Introduction

The BRICS grouping—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South

Africa—has undergone a transformative evolution since its inception in 2009. Initially
established as a geoeconomic framework of emerging economies, BRICS has
steadily expanded its influence, integrating geopolitical and geoeconomic
dimensions to challenge the Western-dominated global order. The recent decision at
the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, to include Egypt, Ethiopia,
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE as new members from January 2024, marks a
significant milestone in the group’s evolution.

This analytical note covers the core dimensions of BRICS, emphasizing the
implications of its expansion, economic potential, geopolitical strategies, and India's
critical role in shaping the future of the alliance.

1. Historical Context and BRICS Formation

BRICS traces its origins to the early 2000s, when Brazil, Russia, India, and China
began collaborating to address the global economic shifts emerging due to rising
discontent with Western financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF. These
countries sought a more equitable, transparent global economic order. The inclusion
of South Africa in 2009 solidified the grouping, expanding its geographic and
economic diversity.

BRICS has since evolved into a potent platform representing over 40% of the global
population and approximately 25% of global GDP. The group has served as a
counterweight to the influence of Western financial institutions, calling for more
democratic reforms and inclusion for emerging economies.

2. BRICS Expansion: The Shift to BRICS+

The 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg saw the official creation of BRICS+ with
the inclusion of five new countries: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

This strategic expansion is notable as over 40 countries, primarily from the Global
South, expressed their willingness to join, highlighting BRICS’ growing global appeal.

The significance of the expansion can be analyzed across multiple dimensions:

1. Geopolitical Impact: The inclusion of major Middle Eastern powers, like

Saudi Arabia and Iran, underscores BRICS’ ambition to assert a stronger role
in global geopolitics, particularly in regions of strategic energy importance.
With Iran and Saudi Arabia’s rivalry, BRICS will need to carefully manage
internal dynamics to maintain unity.
2. Economic Dimension: The addition of resource-rich nations, such as Saudi
Arabia and the UAE, significantly enhances BRICS’ energy security potential,
making it a central player in global oil markets. Additionally, Ethiopia’s
burgeoning infrastructure projects and Egypt’s status as a regional trade hub
complement BRICS’ objective of bolstering South-South cooperation.
3. Strategic Global South Leadership: The inclusion of these nations
highlights BRICS’ ambition to represent the Global South more effectively. As
countries in Africa and the Middle East seek alternatives to
Western-dominated institutions, BRICS+ is well-positioned to champion their
cause, amplifying voices previously underrepresented.

3. BRICS Economic and Financial Dimensions

a. New Development Bank (NDB)

One of the most significant BRICS achievements is the establishment of the New
Development Bank (NDB) in 2014, aimed at providing financial support for
infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging
economies. However, the NDB has faced challenges—its loan approvals amount to
only $33 billion, significantly less than institutions like the World Bank.

The recent expansion offers the NDB greater potential for capital inflow, particularly
from resource-rich countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These countries bring
additional liquidity to the table, which can be leveraged to increase NDB’s
development financing capacity and boost economic cooperation among member
states.

b. De-dollarisation Efforts

A recurring theme at BRICS summits has been reducing reliance on the US dollar for
international transactions. Several members, particularly China and Russia, have
pushed for the use of national currencies in bilateral trade and the creation of a
BRICS currency. This push gained momentum after Western sanctions on Russia
following its exclusion from the SWIFT system in 2022.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Despite these efforts, the feasibility of replacing the US dollar remains limited.
Neither China’s Renminbi nor India’s Rupee are fully convertible, and the creation of
a single BRICS currency would require the surrender of significant economic
sovereignty—a hurdle few BRICS members are willing to cross. Instead, BRICS may
focus on alternative payment systems, such as China’s CIPS or Russia’s SPFS, to
reduce dependence on Western financial architecture.

c. Trade and Investment Dynamics

BRICS nations collectively represent 18% of global exports. Intra-BRICS trade has
witnessed robust growth, driven primarily by China, whose trade with other BRICS
nations reached $135.98 billion in 2022. However, the significant trade deficit
between China and other members, particularly India, remains a concern. The
challenge of trade imbalances and unequal economic dependence must be
addressed if BRICS is to sustain long-term cooperation.

The expansion offers a unique opportunity for BRICS to strengthen intra-bloc trade
by diversifying markets and reducing dependence on traditional Western economies.
Middle Eastern oil producers, for instance, offer vital energy security, while African
nations bring untapped natural resources and growing markets into the equation.

4. BRICS’ Geopolitical Role: Evolving from Geo-economics to Geopolitics

a. Advocating a Multipolar World

BRICS has consistently advocated for a multipolar world order, counterbalancing the
unipolar dominance of Western powers. This strategy aligns with India’s and China’s
long-standing geopolitical goals. The group’s expansion enhances its geopolitical
heft, as it now includes key oil producers and strategic nations from Africa and the
Middle East.

BRICS aims to challenge Western-dominated multilateral institutions by offering

alternative frameworks for global governance. One notable aspiration is reforming
the United Nations Security Council, wherein India’s objective of becoming a
permanent member aligns with the broader BRICS agenda of democratizing global
governance.

b. Climate Change and Global Challenges

BRICS has emerged as a critical platform for discussing global challenges like
climate change, pandemics, and terrorism. The group’s diversity and collective
strength enable it to formulate comprehensive responses to these issues. The
Johannesburg summit reaffirmed BRICS’ commitment to combating climate change,
particularly by promoting green finance through the NDB.

5. India’s Role in BRICS

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

India’s role within BRICS is of paramount importance. As the world’s most populous
country and the fastest-growing major economy, India’s contributions to the bloc are
critical to its long-term success.

a. Strategic Partnerships with New BRICS Members

India has actively cultivated strategic partnerships with the newly inducted BRICS
members. For example:

● Egypt: India’s relations with Egypt have been strengthened by bilateral trade
agreements worth $5.17 billion. The inclusion of Egypt in BRICS
complements New Delhi’s objectives of expanding ties with North Africa.
● Ethiopia: India’s engagement with Ethiopia is driven by strategic
considerations in the Horn of Africa. India is Ethiopia’s largest creditor in
Africa, financing critical infrastructure projects. Ethiopia’s admission into
BRICS solidifies India’s growing influence in East Africa.
● Iran and Saudi Arabia: India has skillfully navigated the rivalry between Iran
and Saudi Arabia, maintaining strong economic and energy ties with both.
India’s support for their inclusion reflects New Delhi’s broader multi-alignment
foreign policy, leveraging BRICS as a platform to assert its leadership.

b. India’s Strategic Interests

For India, BRICS serves several critical functions:

1. Multipolarity and Global South Leadership: BRICS allows India to project

itself as a leader of the Global South, championing the interests of developing
nations. Through BRICS, India can advocate for reforms in multilateral
institutions, particularly the UN Security Council.
2. Geoeconomic Leverage: India views BRICS as a platform to decouple its
economy from over-reliance on Western financial systems, exploring
alternatives like the NDB and reducing dependence on the US dollar for
international trade.
3. Bilateral Ties within BRICS: BRICS provides India an avenue to deepen
bilateral relations with fellow member states, especially China and Russia.
Despite ongoing border tensions with China, BRICS offers a framework for
diplomatic engagement.

c. Challenges and Opportunities for India

The expansion of BRICS presents India with both opportunities and challenges. On
the one hand, it strengthens India’s hand in promoting a multipolar world and
securing energy supplies from the Middle East. On the other, managing the diverse
interests of new members, particularly the Saudi-Iran rivalry, will require deft
diplomacy.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

Conclusion

The expansion of BRICS marks a pivotal moment in the group’s evolution, shifting it
from a predominantly geoeconomic framework to a more geopolitically influential
bloc. The inclusion of new members—particularly from Africa and the Middle
East—positions BRICS as a key player in shaping global governance and economic
norms.

For India, the expanded BRICS offers significant opportunities to further its foreign
policy objectives of promoting a multipolar world, securing energy supplies, and
deepening ties with Africa and the Middle East. However, India must navigate the
complex dynamics within BRICS, ensuring that the group remains a platform for
balanced dialogue and does not devolve into an anti-Western bloc.

The future success of BRICS depends on its ability to reconcile the diverse interests
of its members and translate its economic and geopolitical potential into tangible
outcomes for the Global South. For India, BRICS remains a critical instrument of its
global leadership aspirations in an increasingly multipolar world.

India's West Asia Policy and Contemporary Developments

India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, particularly in West Asia
(the Middle East), has undergone significant transformation, establishing robust
relationships with countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Israel. During
Modi’s tenure, India’s West Asia policy became a highlight of its foreign strategy, with
deepening cooperation across various sectors, including trade, energy, security, and
technology. This engagement, built on strong personal diplomacy, economic
convergence, and strategic partnerships, continues to evolve with the re-election of
the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in 2024.

1. Geopolitical and Economic Importance of West Asia to India

West Asia, particularly the Gulf region, plays a critical role in India's economic and
energy security. The region is a major source of India’s energy imports, accounting
for over 50% of its crude oil imports and around 70% of gas imports. Gulf states such
as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Qatar are among the top suppliers. India’s
economic ties with these nations have expanded rapidly, especially in trade and
investment, infrastructure development, and technology collaborations.

In fiscal year 2023, India’s trade volume with Saudi Arabia was valued at $52.76
billion, $85 billion with the UAE, $4.42 billion with Israel, and $1.7 billion with
Bahrain. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between
India and the UAE, signed in 2022, aims to boost non-oil bilateral trade to $100
billion by 2030. The CEPA has simplified business transactions, fast-tracked

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

approvals, and facilitated local currency trade settlement agreements, further

strengthening financial engagements.

2. Energy Cooperation: Hydrocarbons and Renewable Energy

Although India has diversified its energy imports, particularly following the
Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Gulf remains a vital supplier of hydrocarbons. Iraq,
Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are among India's top five oil suppliers. In the liquified
natural gas (LNG) sector, Qatar is India’s largest supplier, providing 35% of its LNG
imports. A 20-year deal signed in 2024 allows India to purchase 7.5 million tonnes of
LNG annually from Qatar.

However, a newer focus is emerging in renewable energy cooperation. Both India

and Gulf nations are working towards reducing their dependency on fossil fuels. The
UAE’s Energy Strategy 2050 and India’s National Solar Mission align their interests
in renewable energy projects. For instance, UAE’s Masdar is acquiring Ayana
Renewable Power, signalling future collaboration in clean energy. This partnership,
along with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, promises to advance solar and wind energy
projects.

3. Strategic Maritime and Military Cooperation

India’s growing role in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and its interest in securing
maritime routes have intensified its maritime cooperation with GCC nations. Navies
from Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf states regularly conduct joint
exercises with India, focusing on securing crucial trade routes in the western Indian
Ocean and Arabian Sea. The 2023 trilateral maritime partnership exercise between
India, the UAE, and France highlights this cooperation.

India’s Indo-Pacific strategy also aims to enhance naval presence in the region to
counter traditional and non-traditional security threats. This includes addressing
challenges such as piracy, terrorism, and geopolitical tensions, especially in the Red
Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

4. Defence and Security Collaborations

Security cooperation is another key pillar of India’s relations with the Gulf.
Agreements such as the 2019 Strategic Partnership Council (SPC) between India
and Saudi Arabia are pivotal in coordinating security and defense ties. India’s
intelligence cooperation with the UAE and Saudi Arabia has been crucial in
counterterrorism efforts. This collaboration has resulted in the extradition of several
fugitives involved in terror activities, such as the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.

The Gulf also provides a neutral ground for India’s backchannel diplomacy with
adversaries, as seen in the UAE’s mediation in the 2021 India-Pakistan talks.
Intelligence cooperation is expected to expand into areas like cybersecurity, maritime

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

security, and financial intelligence, particularly as GCC countries become regional

hubs for global finance.

5. China’s Growing Influence in West Asia

While India continues to strengthen ties in West Asia, China has emerged as a
significant competitor. China’s growing investments and strategic partnerships with
Gulf nations, as seen in its role in mediating the Saudi-Iran normalization in 2023,
indicate its increasing geopolitical presence. China’s focus on energy trade,
infrastructure development, and space collaboration has earned it favor among Arab
states.

China’s agenda aligns with the socio-economic reforms of nations like Saudi Arabia
(Vision 2030) and the UAE (Energy Strategy 2050). Its investments in artificial
intelligence, green technologies, and infrastructure have allowed China to compete
for influence in the region. However, while China is deeply engaged in economic
cooperation, it remains less interested in playing a security guarantor role in the
region, unlike the US or India.

6. The I2U2 and IMEEC Initiatives: New Areas of Multilateral Cooperation

India’s growing focus on minilateral partnerships, such as the I2U2 (India, Israel,
UAE, and the US) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC),
opens new avenues for cooperation. These initiatives promote collaboration in areas
like infrastructure, technology, food security, and energy. The IMEEC, in particular,
aims to improve connectivity between the Middle East and Europe, with India playing
a central role in this strategic corridor.

7. Challenges and the Road Ahead

While India’s West Asia policy has seen significant success, challenges remain. The
geopolitical volatility of the region, driven by conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas war,
demands careful navigation. Additionally, India must remain wary of China’s
expanding influence in the region. China’s partnerships with Arab states, particularly
in renewable energy, digital currencies, and space exploration, may compete with
India’s strategic interests.

India must also continue working towards securing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
with the GCC, which has been pending since the appointment of chief negotiators in
late 2022. This agreement is critical to maintaining India’s economic competitiveness
in the region, as the GCC is India’s largest regional trading partner, accounting for
15.8% of its total trade in FY 2022-23.

Conclusion

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

India’s relations with West Asia are poised to deepen in the coming years. The focus
on energy security, economic cooperation, and defence ties will remain central to
India’s engagement. The NDA government’s strategic approach, combining bilateral
and multilateral initiatives, provides a robust framework for strengthening ties with
the Gulf and beyond. However, India must remain vigilant of geopolitical shifts and
emerging competitors like China while leveraging its growing partnerships to secure
its long-term strategic interests in West Asia.

Global South and India: A Contemporary Overview

The term "Global South" broadly refers to countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin
America, often categorised as "developing" or "underdeveloped" in contrast to the
"Global North," which includes advanced economies like the US, Canada, Europe,
Russia, Australia, and New Zealand. This distinction is not geographical but
socio-economic and political, shaped by historical factors like colonialism and
imperialism, which left the Global South at the receiving end of exploitative power
dynamics. The Global South comprises nations that continue to grapple with
development challenges, inequality, and limited representation in global
decision-making.

Challenges Facing the Global South

In 2023, the Global South faces an unprecedented crises, including food, fuel, and
fertiliser shortages exacerbated by global conflicts, such as the Ukraine war. A
November 2022 FAO report warned that the conflict could increase global hunger,
with the most significant impact on regions like the Asia-Pacific and Sub-Saharan
Africa. These regions, already vulnerable, face escalating challenges due to rising
energy costs and fertiliser shortages. Consequently, ensuring the securitization of
supply chains for essential commodities like food and energy has become a pressing
concern for the Global South.

Additionally, global power rivalries, particularly between the US, China, and Russia,
have disrupted decision-making processes in international forums like the G-20. The
dominance of the Global North continues to manifest in multilateral institutions,
where they impose normative frameworks, often disregarding the interests of the
Global South. Issues such as democracy promotion, Responsibility to Protect (R2P),
and climate governance reflect a clear divide between the two blocs.

Way Forward: Reforming Multilateral Institutions

A critical issue for the Global South is the need to reform multilateral institutions like
the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The current structure of the UNSC
disproportionately represents the Global North, excluding emerging powers like
India, Brazil, and South Africa. Reforming these institutions to ensure equitable
representation from the Global South is essential for democratizing international

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

relations. The crisis of multilateralism was further exposed during the COVID-19
pandemic, which revealed the inefficacy of global institutions in addressing the
needs of developing nations.

Moreover, the rise of digitalization in the global economy has presented new
challenges for the Global South, as protectionist measures by the Global North
continue to hinder trade liberalization. Revitalizing institutions like the G-77 and
G-20, where Global South countries have fair representation, is necessary to
address global issues democratically.

Reinterpreting the Global Normative Order

Another significant challenge for the Global South is the Global North's use of
normative idioms—such as democracy, human rights, and Responsibility to
Protect—as geopolitical tools. These norms are often applied selectively, to further
the interests of the Global North. For instance, the concept of democracy is
universal, but its promotion has often been manipulated to serve the geopolitical
interests of Western powers, as seen in the post-Soviet Color Revolutions and the
Arab Spring. Similarly, R2P has been used as a pretext for interventions in countries
like Libya and Ukraine, raising concerns about its misuse as a tool for geopolitical
dominance.

To counter this, the Global South must advocate for an alternative approach to these
normative issues, reinterpreting them in the context of their socio-cultural and
historical experiences. Dialogue between the Global North and Global South on
these matters is crucial for bringing resilience to global geopolitics.

India’s Role in the Global South

India, with its historical leadership in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and its
growing geopolitical and economic influence, plays a pivotal role in shaping the
narrative of the Global South. India’s assumption of the G-20 Presidency in 2022-23
underscores its leadership in addressing the concerns of the Global South. India has
consistently advocated for equitable representation in multilateral forums and has
pushed for reforms in the United Nations to reflect the aspirations of the developing
world.

At the forefront of global energy transitions, India has taken significant steps to
address the challenges of climate change, energy security, and sustainability. Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s statements at the G-20 Summit in Bali in November 2022
emphasized the need for "stability in the energy market" and affordable financing for
developing countries to ensure an inclusive energy transition. India's leadership in
initiatives like the International Solar Alliance and the promotion of hydrogen-based
fuel highlights its commitment to supporting the energy transitions of Global South
countries.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

India has also played a key role in promoting climate justice, particularly at
international climate summits, where it has consistently advocated for the Global
North’s historical responsibility as the largest polluters. India’s approach to climate
governance emphasizes equity, access to technology, and the democratization of
energy governance, reflecting the concerns of the Global South.

India’s Push for Reformed Multilateralism

India has consistently called for reforms in multilateral institutions to ensure a more
democratic global order. In 2022, the Ministry of External Affairs released a policy
paper titled Norms: New Orientation for a Reformed Multilateral System, which
outlined India's approach to multilateral reform. The paper emphasized five pillars:
respect, dialogue, cooperation, peace, and prosperity. These pillars are reflected in
India's leadership of the G-20, where its motto, “One Earth, One Family, One
Future,” is rooted in the Indian ethos of vasudhaiva kutumbakam (the world is one
family).

India’s approach to democracy, in contrast to the Euro-Atlantic system, emphasizes

the importance of socio-economic, cultural, and institutional contexts. India rejects
the imposition of democracy from above and advocates for a more nuanced,
context-specific approach to governance. This principle extends to India's stance on
non-intervention in domestic affairs, as seen in its neutral stance on the Syrian and
Ukrainian crises. India has consistently advocated for resolving conflicts through
dialogue rather than third-party intervention.

Current Developments and India’s Continued Leadership

In recent years, India has emerged as a key player in shaping the narrative of the
Global South. With the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South
Africa) surpassing the G7 in terms of GDP (based on purchasing power parity), the
Global South’s economic clout is on the rise. Projections indicate that by 2030, three
of the four largest economies will be from the Global South—China, India, and
Indonesia—further shifting the global economic balance.

As the world grapples with new challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, climate
change, and energy transitions, India’s role as a bridge between the Global North
and South is crucial. India’s proactive stance in addressing the concerns of the
Global South, its leadership in multilateral forums, and its commitment to democratic
principles and equity position it as a central figure in shaping a more inclusive global
order.

In conclusion, the Global South, led by countries like India, is asserting itself on the
global stage, challenging the hegemonic practices of the Global North, and
advocating for a more equitable, democratic, and just international order. India’s
leadership in this movement reflects its historical commitment to the principles of

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

non-alignment, democracy, and multilateralism, and its future role in shaping global
geopolitics is set to grow even further.

India’s Role in the G20: A Leadership in Action

India assumed the presidency of the G20 for the year 2022-23, marking a significant
moment in its global diplomatic journey. As one of the world’s fastest-growing
economies and a key player in international relations, India has been using its G20
presidency to address critical global issues, particularly those concerning the Global
South. India’s leadership in the G20 focuses on several priority areas that reflect its
broader geopolitical interests, development challenges, and ambitions for a more
equitable global order.

Key Roles and Contributions of India in the G20

1. Addressing the Global South’s Concerns

One of the core focuses of India’s G20 presidency has been to amplify the voice of
the Global South, which includes countries from Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
India has been instrumental in highlighting issues that disproportionately affect
developing and emerging economies, such as food security, climate change, energy
transition, and digital inequality. India’s leadership role in this respect has included:

● Food and Fuel Security: The ongoing geopolitical crises, particularly the
Ukraine war, have exacerbated global challenges related to food and fuel
security. India has advocated for ensuring stable and affordable supplies of
food and fuel, particularly for vulnerable nations in the Global South. By
hosting summits like the "Voice of Global South" in January 2023, India
demonstrated its commitment to advancing the interests of these nations.
● Climate Justice and Energy Transitions: At the G20, India has been a vocal
proponent of climate justice. It consistently emphasizes that developed
nations, which are historically the largest polluters, should take greater
responsibility for financing climate initiatives in developing nations. India has
advocated for fair and accessible energy transitions for the Global South,
stressing the need for sustainable energy solutions that do not place an
undue burden on poorer nations.

2. Reformed Multilateralism

India has been pushing for the reform of global multilateral institutions, including the
United Nations and the World Trade Organization (WTO), as part of its G20
leadership. India’s stance is that these institutions do not adequately reflect the
contemporary geopolitical realities or the aspirations of the developing world. During
its G20 presidency, India has used its platform to:

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

● Promote Democratic Global Governance: India has called for a more

inclusive global governance structure that provides equitable representation to
emerging and developing nations. Specifically, India supports the expansion
of the United Nations Security Council to include countries like itself, Japan,
Brazil, and South Africa.
● Strengthen Global Cooperation: India has focused on fostering international
cooperation through dialogue, respect, and mutual cooperation. In the G20,
India has proposed reforms to make the global decision-making process more
democratic and responsive to the needs of developing nations.

3. Inclusive Digital Transformation

Recognizing the power of technology to transform economies, India has made digital
transformation a key agenda of its G20 presidency. India has highlighted the need
for:

● Bridging the Digital Divide: India has pushed for digital inclusion,
emphasizing the importance of ensuring that the benefits of digital
technologies reach the poorest and most marginalized populations. This
includes initiatives like digital financial inclusion, the expansion of digital
infrastructure, and the promotion of digital public goods.
● Cybersecurity and Digital Governance: As digital economies grow, so do
the risks of cyber threats. India has also placed a focus on creating a secure
and inclusive digital governance framework at the global level, ensuring that
developing nations are not left vulnerable to cybercrime and digital exclusion.

4. Sustainable Development and Health Security

India’s G20 presidency has also prioritized issues related to global health,
particularly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. India has promoted efforts
to:

● Strengthen Global Health Architecture: India has called for the reform of
global health systems to better prepare for future pandemics and health
crises. It has advocated for increased investments in health infrastructure,
particularly in developing nations, to improve resilience and capacity for
dealing with health emergencies.
● Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): India has used its G20
platform to push for renewed global commitment towards achieving the United
Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. India has stressed
the importance of addressing poverty, inequality, and sustainability in
developing countries.

5. Resilience in Supply Chains

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

India has been a strong advocate for making global supply chains more resilient and
inclusive, particularly after the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and
geopolitical tensions. India has emphasized:

● Diversifying Global Supply Chains: India advocates for diversification of

supply chains to reduce dependency on a few countries and ensure that
developing economies are better integrated into the global supply chain.
● Sustainable Trade Practices: India is also focused on promoting sustainable
trade practices that take into account the environmental impact of global trade
and ensure that it benefits developing countries.

India’s G20 Presidency: Themes and Vision

India’s G20 presidency has been guided by the motto "One Earth, One Family, One
Future," rooted in the ancient Indian philosophy of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (the
world is one family). This vision reflects India’s desire to promote global solidarity
and cooperation, especially in an increasingly polarized world.

Themes of India’s G20 Presidency:

● Green Development and Climate Finance: India has focused on advancing

green development, particularly for developing countries. It has emphasized
the need for developed nations to fulfill their commitments to providing
financial assistance to the Global South for climate adaptation and mitigation.
● Women-Led Development: Another theme India has championed is
women-led development, recognizing that empowering women is key to
achieving sustainable development goals. India has promoted policies to
increase female participation in the workforce, access to education, and
entrepreneurship.
● Global Supply Chain Resilience: India has promoted the need to create
more resilient supply chains by diversifying sources, ensuring sustainability,
and reducing vulnerabilities.

India’s Impact and Legacy in the G20

India’s leadership in the G20 has been marked by its pragmatic, inclusive approach
to global challenges. By prioritising the concerns of developing nations and offering
solutions that reflect the realities of the Global South, India has helped shift the focus
of the G20 towards more equitable global governance. Its legacy in the G20 will
likely be remembered for:

● Highlighting Global South Issues: India has used its presidency to bring
issues affecting developing nations to the forefront, from energy security to
digital inclusion.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]

 Magna Carta Mains 2024 : Atish Mathur

● Promoting Multilateral Reform: India’s calls for a more democratic and

inclusive global governance system have gained traction during its
presidency.
● Fostering International Solidarity: India’s emphasis on global cooperation,
especially in the areas of health, climate, and technology, has strengthened
international solidarity.

In conclusion, India’s role in the G20 reflects its rising global influence and its
commitment to representing the concerns of the Global South. Through its
leadership, India has fostered dialogue on critical global challenges, promoted
sustainable development, and advocated for a more inclusive and equitable global
order.

Telegram : [Link]/csepaper2Atish | contact@[Link]