Circana Private Labels in Transformation For Growth
Circana Private Labels in Transformation For Growth
Transformation
for Growth
Ananda Roy
SVP Thought Leadership Europe
CPG Growth Advisor
The battle for category growth is intense; with Private Labels competing hard
Affordability Constrained
Unemployment Risk Grows
High Interest Rates Embedded
Personal Tax Rates Stay High
Adjusted Consumption Behaviours
Credit Availability Resumes
f June-24
Consumer Confidence Growing
So urce: Circana POS data from EU6 (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Netherlands). Period ending FY 2023 P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 4
Intense inflationary headwinds across FMCG have given Private Labels
a volume boost despite price increases, capitalising on wide price index to Brands
9.9%
9.4%
2.2%
7.0%
5.7%
Private Labels Brands
41 40
So urce: Circana POS data from EU6 (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and
Private Label Volume Prices
Ne therlands). Period ending Mar 2024 Indexed to National Brands
P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 5
Private Labels are now firmly established in the FMCG category; maintaining the
market share gains they have made in the last 2 years.
39.1%
Private Label Value Sales Private Label Value Share in EU6 Markets
+0.8pp vs YA MAT and L13W Growth in %
Growth surge when
inflation hit double digits €262 Bn | +9.4% MAT 10.0% 8.1% 10.0% 10.8% 12.9% 7.0%
17.3
L13W 2.7% 2.1% 3.3% 7.1% 8.9% 4.0%
64%
62% 11.6 63% 63%
10.4 61%
59% 59%
6.1 48%
43% 42%
2.0
Value 36% 37%
Share 30%
37% 40%
36% 40% 40%
39% 39%
Apr-2 2
Apr-2 3
Oct-2 3
Sep-2 3
Dec-2 2
Dec-2 1
Dec-23
May-22
May-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Aug-23
Mar-24
Aug-21
Nov-21
Aug-22
Nov-22
Jul-22
Jul-21
Feb-22
Feb-23
Nov-23
Jul-23
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jun-21
Jun-22
Feb-24
Jan-24
Jun-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Sep-21
Sep-22
France
Italy
Germany
Kingdom
Spain
Netherlands
United
Private Label Value Share Source: Eurostat, Circana
So urce: Circana POS data from EU6 (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Netherlands). Period ending Mar 2024
P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 6
Private Labels are now firmly established in the FMCG category in Value Sales
Chilled & Fresh, Ambient and Frozen Foods, and Household Care have high penetration
Notable PL Volume Share growth in Ambient & Frozen foods, Pet Non-Food categories
55% 55%
50%
Value 43% 42%
Share 39% 38%
34%
23%
18% 17%
11% 15%
Pet Non Food
Frozen
Baby Food
Household
Drinks
Ambient
Alcohol
Baby Non Food
Personal Care
Total FMCG
Pet Food
Confectionery
So urce: Circana POS data from EU6 (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Netherlands). Period ending Mar 2024
P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 7
Private Labels are dragging performance of Brands in Volume Sales with 68% share
Mega categories like Household & Personal Care are highly vulnerable from penetration and growth
Alcohol, Confectionery and Beverages remain resilient, but Baby Food is showing +2.3pp growth
Frozen
Household
Drinks
Ambient
Chilled and Fresh
Alcohol
Baby Non Food
Personal Care
Total FMCG
Pet Food
Confectionery
Yet explaining Private Label growth as Inflation-Driven is an over-simplification
So urce: Circana POS data from EU6 (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Netherlands). Period ending Mar 2024
P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 8
Private Labels win because Retailers have transformed their role in the category
Innovative &
Strategy Obsessed Differentiated
Category Dynamics Sustainable Products
Margin & Volume Focus Innovative
Range Discipline High Quality & Taste
Delivers Claims
Demand Forecasting
Shopper Segmentation
Loyalty Data Mining
Shopper Panels
39% 46% Pricing Analytics
Promotion Effectiveness
Value Unit Range Discipline
Share Share
Consumer Focussed Data Driven
80.0%
Frozen Vegetables
Cleaners & Wipes
Toilet Paper Household
Battleground
Volume Share
70.0% Chilled Milk Baby Non Food Pet Non Food
Frozen Cheese Personal Care
Ambient
Chilled Fresh Soup & UHT Milk Frozen Fish Cooking Oil
60.0% and Fresh Pasta Canned Beans
Frozen Desserts
Eggs Breads Ice Cream
Juices Face Yogurt Pet
Pet Food
Food Nappies & Diapers
50.0% Care Dish Detergent
Frozen Pizza
Vulnerable Butters & Margarines
Mayonnaise
40.0% Tea
Wine Toilet Cleaners
Water Soup
Cosmetics Ketchup
Drinks Coffee
Sports & Energy 30.0%
Chocolate Baby Food
Alcohol & Hand, Lip & RTD Spirits & Drinks
Spirits Body Care Conditioners
Confectionery Carbonates
20.0%
Alcohol Shampoo Baby Food Laundry
Beer Detergents &
Aids
Hair Colorants
10.0% Baby Milk
Resilient
0.0%
-2.4% -1.4% -0.4% 0.6% 1.6% 2.6% 3.6% 4.6% 5.6% 6.6%
So urce: Circana POS data from EU6 (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Netherlands). Period ending Mar 2024 P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 10
Private Label volume share declined from Q1 2020 (62%) to mid-2022 (59%) as consumers chose
National Brands in pandemic & post chaos; Yet as inflation intensified Private Label Volume Share
has returned to normalcy and forecast to return to c63%
0.03 f 64.0%
2.2%
Private Label Share
Private Label Share Chg vs YA 1.8%
62.6% 1.6% 1.6% 62.3% 1.7%
63.3% 63.0%
0.02 1.0% H2 2024 Slower growth rate yet
Forecast
62.0% return to pre-pandemic %
0.01 0.3% 0.4%
0.6% 62.8%
0.0% 0.1% 61.6% 61.0% Increased Promotions
-0.1% 61.0%
60.8%
0 60.2%
61.6% 60.6% 60.0% Loyalty Card Prices
0.2% 60.0% Innovation
60.6% 59.0% Range Expansion
-0.01 59.3% 59.2%
59.0% 59.0% -0.8% 58.9% -0.8% 58.9% Margin Pressure
58.0% Supplier Prices
-0.02 -1.8%
-2.1% 57.0%
-2.4%
-0.03 56.0%
Q1 2020
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q2 2020
Q3 2020
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q2 2024
26.5% 20.4% 14.9% 7.8% 7.6% 6.6% 5.9% 4.8% 2.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3%
So urce: Circana POS data from EU6 (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Netherlands). Period ending Mar 2024 P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 11
Competing Effectively in 2024 and Beyond
CHANGE IN CHANGE IN
TOTAL VALUE SALES TOTAL UNIT SALES Brands
16.7% 16.7% 96%
+0.5 PP Format variety for Rotating Flavors
17.4% various occasions and Limited Editions
-16.9%
† All Data Grocery TSV; May ‘23 MAT are based on standard TSV definitions
P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 15
Diversify into high growth adjacencies: Reformulating & Repositioning existing
products to target emerging premium segments & retain high-value shoppers
using the equity of the host brand
Breakfast Cereal
• Highly Competitive: Established Mega-Brands
• Price-Sensitive: Growth of Private Labels
• Children & Family Consumer Segments
• HFSS concerns
• Unclear Brand Equity
Anytime “Snacking-At-Home”
• Relatively less contested than Breakfast options
• Potentially Premium: Professional Hybrid Workers – Growth Segment
• New Moment: Grazing ‘On-The-Go’ At-Home
• New Need: A tasty, indulgent boost while busy
• Innovation possibilities: Online Personalisation, Home-Delivery‘
• ‘Have a Break, Have a Kit-Kat’ equity
Data Source: IRI POS data UK 5YRS MAT ending May’23 P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 16
Premiumisation worth paying for creates value. What volume would you rather sell?
Based on avg volume price gap (indexed) & gross margin of branded vs low-priced generic brands
=
P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 17
Premiumise distinctively
Giving the offer deeper meaning: Continue Innovations, Attract New Shoppers, Target New Needs, Make Acquisitions Deliver
Mars
Private Labels
Lindt
Confectionery
Nestle
Ferrero
To tal
1 2 3 4
Continue to Launch New Products Focus on Small Gifting Packs Make Strategic Acquisitions Work ‘Quality At Heart’ Features
Volume Driver at accessible Unit Price Impulse + Everyday Gifting + ‘On-The-Go’ indulgence Fox’s Rocky Countlines positioned at affordable price points Media Push in Weekend Broadsheets & Online
200gm > 300 gm YA
Q1 2022 Q1 2022
-30% +2% MAT 2023 MAT 2023
+111% +71% +40% +43%
Volume growth Volume growth MAT 2023 VOL MAT 2023 VOL Volume growth Volume growth
+20% +10%
6% 0.50%
-17%
-22%
-25%
New drivers of ‘Better Value’ Physical Availability is Crucial Product Experience is Critical
Beyond New Features, Good Price, Deals, Better for Me Lost Repeat Purchase & Funnelling to Competition Shoppers are Hesitant Repeaters
67% Helps them achieve their goals Search for the product Would buy again if on deal,
that fits my lifestyle & healthy choices
>20% if not available >10% Loyalty points or referral
Are Better for Environment Look for another product Lose Trust in the Brand
68% and Better for Others
23% or brand like it
15% or Retailer
2
P R I VATE LABELS I N TRANSFORMATION F OR GROWTH – PLMA 27 MAY 2024 | 22
CHANGING ROLE OF CATEGORIES IN THE CONSUMER BASKET
Intense inflation has re-shaped purchase and consumption behaviour
STABLE VOLATILE
Macroeconomics Macroeconomics
Retail Landscape Challengers & Private Labels
Distribution Retail Channels - Discounters
Pricing & Promotion Distribution -
Affordability Aggressive Pricing
Affordability & Confidence
Staples, Price Inelastic, Buy Less, Use Less Price Elastic, Occasional or
Regular Purchase Stock up less Deferred Purchase
Perishable Defer Purchase Seasonal, Non-Perishable
Switch to Alternatives
Private Labels win – and can do better in 2024 both Premium Private Label Offers must go one step
in-store & online to make shopping less functional further to create a premium shopping experience
Merchandising
& Store Navigation
signposting
Consumer Benefit
Occasion Or Need
Dispensing systems
to reduce waste
Proximity Storytelling
Digital Signage to
elevate sense of value,
Mood, story-telling
or create ambience
-1.4%
VO LUME
6 Shopper Experience
Experiential, Engage 3 Premiumisation
Race to bottom does not guarantee uplift
& Disrupt clinical norm
Activate loyal shoppers
Transformation
for Growth
Ananda Roy
SVP Thought Leadership Europe
CPG Growth Advisor