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Moderating and Mediating Variables in Psychological Research

Chapter · January 2011

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Petar Milin
University of Birmingham
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Olga HADŽIĆ
Department of Mathematics and Informatics, University of Novi Sad, Serbia

Moderating and mediating variables, or simply moderators and mediators, are related
but distinct concepts in both general statistics and its application in psychology. A moder-
ating variable is a variable that affects the relationship between two other variables. This
effect is usually referred to as an interaction. The simplest case of an interaction can occur
in analysis of variance (ANOVA). For example, we tested whether there is a significant
difference in the level of anxiety (as measured with an appropriate standardized psycholog-
ical test) between married and unmarried participants (i.e., variable marital status). The
effect was not statistically significant. However, when we enter the third variable – gender
(female/male), it appears that, on average, unmarried males are significantly more anxious
than married males, while for females the effect is the reverse. Figure 1 represents the re-
sults from two models described above. In the left-hand panel, we can see that, on average,
there are no differences between married and unmarried participants in the level of anxiety.
From the right-hand panel, we can conclude that gender moderates the effect of marital
status on the level of anxiety: married males and unmarried females are significantly less
anxious than the other two groups (unmarried males and married females).
We can generalize the previous example to more complex models, with two independent
variables having more than just two levels for comparison, or even with more than two
independent variables. If all variables in the model are continuous variables, we would apply
multiple regression analysis, but the phenomenon of a moderating effect would remain the
same, in essence. For example, we confirmed a positive relationship between the hours
of learning and the result in an assessment test. Yet, music loudness during learning can
moderate test results. We can imagine this as if a hand on the volume knob of an amplifier
rotates clockwise and turns the volume up, students get all the worse results the longer
they learn. Depending on the music volume level, the relationship between the hours of
learning and the knowledge assessment changes continuously. This outcome is presented in
Figure 2. On the left-hand side, we can observe a positive influence of the hours of learning
on the results in the assessment test, while on the right-hand side, we can see how music
loudness moderates this relationship.

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 30

30
male
female

25

25
20

20
anxiety

anxiety
15

15
10

10
5

5
married not married married not married

marital status marital status

Figure 1: The main effect of one categorical variable on a continuous dependent variable
(left-hand panel), and how it is moderated by the third categorical variable (right-hand
panel).

music loudness
(decile values)
45

45
test results

test results
40

40
35

35

6 7 8 9 6 7 8 9

hours of learning hours of learning

Figure 2: The main effect of one continuous variable on another (left-hand panel), and
how it is moderated by a third continuous variable (right-hand panel). Lines on the right
panel represent decile values for the moderator variable.

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Figure 3: Schematic representation of a complete mediation effect (panel A, upper), and
an incomplete mediation effect (panel B, lower).

The general linear form with one dependent, one independent, and one moderating
variable is as follows:
Y = β0 + β1 X1 + β2 X2 + β3 (X1 × X2 ) + ε,
where β3 evaluates the interaction between X1 and X2 .
Mediating variables typically emerge in multiple regression analysis, where the influence
of some independent variable (predictor) on the dependent variable (criterion) is not direct,
but mediated through the third variable. For example, the correlation between ageing
and the number of work accidents in the car industry appears to be strong and negative.
Nevertheless, the missing link in this picture is work experience: it affects injury rate, and
is itself affected by the age of worker.
In regression modeling, one can distinguish between complete mediation and incomplete
mediation. In practice, if the effects of ageing on the number of work injuries would not
differ statistically from zero when work experience is included in the model, then mediation
is complete. Otherwise, if this effect still exists (in the statistical sense), then mediation is
incomplete. Complete and incomplete mediation are presented in Figure 3.
In principle, a mediating variable flattens the effect of an independent variable on the
dependent variable. The opposite phenomenon would occur if the mediator variable would
increase the effect. This is called suppression. It is a controversial concept in statistical
theory and practice, but contemporary applied approaches take a more neutral position,
and consider that suppression may provide better insights into the relationships between
relevant variables.
The simplest case of linear regression with one dependent, one independent, and one
mediating variable is defined by the following equations:
Y = β0 + β1 X + ε1
M = γ0 + γ1 X + ε2
Y = β00 + β10 X + β2 M + ε3 ,
where of particular interest are β1 , which is called the total effect, and β10 , named the
direct effect. If suppression does not take place, which would occur if β10 > β1 , then we

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can continue the analysis with a standard regression model. First, we ascertain whether
mediation is complete or incomplete, depending on whether the direct effect drops to zero
(β10 ≈ 0). The most important step in the analysis is the inference about the indirect effect,
or the amount of mediation. It is defined as the reduction in the effect of the initial variable
on the model outcome (β1 − β10 ). In simple hierarchical regression models, the difference
of the coefficients is exactly the same as the product of the effect of the independent
variable on the mediating variable multiplied by the effect of the mediating variable on the
dependent variable. In the general case, this equality only approximately holds.
Mediation and moderation can co-occur in statistical models. This is often the case
in psychology. Mediated moderation takes place when the independent variable is actually
an interaction (X = XA × XB ). Thus, the mediator acts between interacting variables
(XA and XB ) and dependent variable (Y ). For example, the effect of interacting variable
hours of learning and music loudness on the dependent variable result in an assessment test
can be mediated by the importance of the test, as rated by the participants. Conversely,
moderated mediation is realized in two forms: (a) the effect of the independent variable
on the mediator is affected by a moderator (γ1 varies; as if the effect of ageing on work
experience is moderated by a particular personality trait, like H. J. Eysenck’s Neuroticism),
or (b) a moderator may interact with the mediating variable (β2 varies; as if the work
experience and the level of anxiety would interact and mediate between ageing and number
of work accidents). If moderated mediation exists, inference about its type must be given.
Finally, special attention is required in moderation and mediation analyses since both
can be influenced by multicollinearity, which makes estimates of regression coefficients un-
stable. In addition, in an analysis with a moderating term – i.e., an interaction effect, the
product of the variables can be strongly related to either the independent or the moderating
variable, or both of them. If two variables are collinear, one of them can be centred to its
mean. In this way, half of its value will become negative, and consequently, collinearity will
decrease. Another possibility is to regress the independent variable with a moderator or
mediator, and then to use the residuals or unexplained values, of the independent variable
in the main analysis. Thus, the independent variable will be orthogonal to the moderating
or mediating variable, with zero correlation, which will bring collinearity under control.
However, in applying the previous two remedies, and others that are available, one must
choose a conservative approach. The risk of emphasizing, or even inventing, what is not
present in the data ought to be as little as possible. In any circumstances, the ultimate
way of securing more reliable estimates is simply to obtain enough data.

Acknowledgment: We would like to thank Professor David Kenny for reading a draft
of this article, and providing us with comments and suggestions which resulted in many
improvements.

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 References
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psychological research – conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of
Personality and Social Psychology, 51 (6), 1173–1182.

Eysenck, H. (2006). The Biological Basis of Personality. London: Transaction Publishers.

Friedman, L. & Wall, M. (2005). Graphical views of suppression and multicollinearity in

Hayes, A. & Matthes, J. (2009). Computational procedures for probing interactions in ols
and logistic regression: SPSS and SAS implementations. Behavior Research Methods,
41 (3), 924–936.

Judd, C., Kenny, D., & McClelland, G. (2001). Estimating and testing mediation and
moderation in within-participant designs. Psychological Methods, 6 (2), 115–134.

Muller, D., Judd, C., & Yzerbyt, V. (2005). When moderation is mediated and mediation
is moderated. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 89 (6), 852–863.

Shrout, P. & Bolger, N. (2002). Mediation in experimental and nonexperimental studies:

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