Statistical Foundations with Excel

Kirit P. Mehta School of Law

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B.B.A., LL.B. (Hons.)

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

Kirit P. Mehta School of Law Statistical Foundations with Excel 1 / 32
Course Overview

Duration: 45 Hours
Teaching Mode: Discussions + Excel Practice
Evaluation: ICA (100 Marks)

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Course Objectives

1 Interpret and analyze data sets using spreadsheets

2 Solve problems with statistical tools in Excel
3 Make informed decisions using data-driven approaches

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

Kirit P. Mehta School of Law Statistical Foundations with Excel 3 / 32
Unit 1–3: Excel Basics

Topics:
Excel interface and shortcuts
Functions: SUM, AVERAGE, IF, VLOOKUP, etc.
Pivot tables
Method: Hands-on using datasets emailed prior

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 4: Types of Data

Topics:
Qualitative vs Quantitative
Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio
Discrete vs Continuous
Tool: Excel with real-world legal data examples

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 5: Data Visualization

Topics:
Histograms, Scatterplots, Bar Charts
Shapes of Distributions
Book: Keller, Ch. 3

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 6: Sampling Methods

Topics:
Survey, Experimentation, Observation
Simple, Stratified, Cluster Sampling
Excel Practice: Sample generation and error identification

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 7: Central Tendency & Dispersion

Topics:
Mean, Median, Mode, Quartiles
Range, Variance, SD, IQR

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 8–9: Probability

Topics:
Sample Space, Events, Addition/Multiplication Rules
Conditional, Marginal, Joint Probability

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 10: Probability Distributions

Distributions:
Binomial
Poisson
Normal
Tool: Use Excel’s [Link], [Link]

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 11–12: Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

Concepts:
Confidence Intervals, p-values
Null vs Alternate Hypothesis
Type I and Type II Errors

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 13: Correlation

Topics:
Pearson and Spearman methods
Excel’s CORREL() function

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Unit 14–15: Regression & Modeling

Concepts:
Simple and Multiple Linear Regression
Slope, Intercept, R 2 , ANOVA Table
Excel Output Interpretation: Coefficients, SE, F-test

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Assessment Structure

ICA (100 Marks):

Quiz 1: 15
Quiz 2: 15
Presentation/Viva: 30
Assignment/Dissertation: 40

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Textbooks and References

Primary:
Gerald Keller – Statistics for Management and Economics
Anderson et al. – Statistics for Business & Economics
Secondary:
Levin Rubin – Statistics for Management

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Conclusion

Statistical thinking + Excel skills = Real-world advantage

All the best for the semester!

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

Kirit P. Mehta School of Law Statistical Foundations with Excel 16 / 32
What is Statistics?

Simple Definition
Statistics is a way to get information from data.
That’s it!

Most of this course describes how, when, and why managers and
statistics practitioners conduct statistical procedures
Students will be exposed to different kinds of information and data
We’ll demonstrate these concepts through cases and examples

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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Statistics Practitioners vs. Statisticians

Statistics Practitioner
A person who uses statistical techniques properly

Examples of Statistics Practitioners:

Financial analyst developing stock portfolios based on historical rates
of return
Economist using statistical models to explain and predict inflation,
unemployment, GDP changes
Market researcher surveying consumers and converting responses into
useful information

Statistician
Individual who works with the mathematics of statistics, developing
techniques and concepts
Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B
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 Two Main Branches of Statistics

1. Descriptive Statistics

Definition
Methods of organizing, summarizing, and presenting data in a convenient
and informative way
Graphical Techniques:
Numerical Techniques:
Present data in ways that make
Calculate averages or means
it easy to extract useful
information Numerical statistical measures
(Chapter 4)
Variety of graphical methods
(Chapters 2 & 3) Describe different features of
data
Histograms for data distribution

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Two Main Branches of Statistics

Example 3.3: Business Statistics Marks

Scenario: Student in business program asks professor about last year’s

statistics course marks

What information can be extracted?

1 Central Location - ”typical” mark

Average (mean)
Median
2 Variability - how scattered the marks are
Range (largest - smallest)
Standard deviation
3 Distribution - how marks are distributed
Best shown with histogram

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Two Main Branches of Statistics

2. Inferential Statistics

Definition
A body of methods used to draw conclusions or inferences about
characteristics of populations based on sample data

We’re not interested in the sample itself

We want to know about the entire population
Interviewing entire population is prohibitive and time-consuming
Statistical techniques make large surveys unnecessary
Sample much smaller numbers and infer population characteristics

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Case Study: Pepsi’s Exclusivity Agreement

Case 12.1: Pepsi’s University Deal

Situation: University offers Pepsi exclusivity agreement

50,000 students total enrollment
University gets 35% of revenues + $200,000/year
Pepsi has 2 weeks to decide
Current Pepsi Sales:
22,000 cans per week
40 weeks per year
$1.00 per can
30 cents cost per can

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Case Study: Pepsi’s Exclusivity Agreement

Pepsi’s Analysis

If current market share is 25%:

Total market = 22, 000 ÷ 0.25 = 88, 000 cans/week (1)

Annual cans = 88, 000 × 40 = 3, 520, 000 (2)
Gross revenue = 3, 520, 000 × $1.00 = $3, 520, 000 (3)
After university take = 65% × $3, 520, 000 = $2, 288, 000 (4)
Costs = 3, 520, 000 × $0.30 = $1, 056, 000 (5)
Net profit = $2, 288, 000 − $1, 056, 000 − $200, 000 (6)
= $1, 032, 000 (7)

Current annual profit: $616,000 Potential gain: $416,000

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Case Study: Pepsi’s Exclusivity Agreement

The Problem

Missing Information
Pepsi doesn’t know the total soft drink consumption at the university

Solution: Survey 500 students to track soft drink purchases for 7 days

This is inferential statistics:

Population: All 50,000 students
Sample: 500 students surveyed
Goal: Estimate total soft drink consumption
Data: Number of cans consumed in 7 days (file C12-01)

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Example: Exit Polls

Example 12.5: Exit Polls

Scenario: 2000 Florida Presidential Election

Networks compete to predict winner first
Use exit polls - random sample of voters
Calculate sample proportion supporting candidates
Apply statistical techniques to determine if there’s enough evidence

Data: 765 people who voted for Bush or Gore (file Xm12-05)
Question: Can we conclude Bush will win Florida?

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Example: Exit Polls

Exit Poll Analysis

Population: 5 million Floridians who voted for Bush or Gore

Sample: 765 randomly selected voters
Parameter of interest: Proportion of total electorate who voted for
Bush
Question: Did more than 50% vote for Bush?

Important Reality Check

We cannot predict with 100% certainty because we don’t ask all 5 million
voters. Statistics practitioners can control reliability and usually set it
between 90% and 99%.
Historical note: The networks made major errors that night, changing
predictions multiple times!
Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B
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 Key Statistical Concepts

1-1a Population

Definition
The group of all items of interest to a statistics practitioner

Frequently very large, may be infinitely large

Doesn’t necessarily refer to people (e.g., ball bearings from a plant)
Parameter: Descriptive measure of a population

Examples:
Case 12.1: 50,000 university students
Example 12.5: 5 million Florida voters

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Key Statistical Concepts

1-1b Sample

Definition
A set of data drawn from the studied population

Statistic: Descriptive measure of a sample

We use statistics to make inferences about parameters

Examples:
Case 12.1: Mean soft drinks consumed by 500 students in sample
Example 12.5: Proportion of 765 Floridians who voted for Bush

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

Kirit P. Mehta School of Law Statistical Foundations with Excel 28 / 32
 Key Statistical Concepts

1-1c Statistical Inference

Definition
The process of making an estimate, prediction, or decision about a
population based on sample data

Why use samples?

Populations are almost always very large
Investigating each member would be impractical and expensive
Much easier and cheaper to sample
Reliability measures:
Confidence level: Proportion of times estimating procedure will be
correct
Significance level: Related measure of uncertainty

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Types of Data

Data Types

Important Note
Data are not necessarily numbers!

Examples from our cases:

Student marks (Example 3.3): Numbers
Soft drinks consumed (Case 12.1): Numbers
Votes for Bush/Gore (Example 12.5): Not numbers (categories)

Different types of data require different statistical techniques, which we’ll

cover in Chapter 2.

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Types of Data

Course Objectives

Our Goal
Convert you into a capable statistics practitioner who can use statistical
techniques properly

What we’ll cover:

Descriptive statistics (organizing and summarizing data)
Graphical techniques for data presentation
Numerical measures and their interpretation
Inferential statistics (drawing conclusions from samples)
Confidence levels and reliability measures
Practical applications using Excel

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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 Types of Data

Questions?

Ready to explore how statistics helps us get information

from data?

Let’s begin with Excel!

Semester I & III — B.A., LL.B. (Hons.) & B

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