Gradient Boosting Gradient Boosting ideas Gradient Boosting : Regression Example Gradient Boosting : Lo
Introduction to Machine Learning
Course 10 - Tree-Based Methods : Boosting Methods 2
4th year Statistics and Data Science
Ayoub Asri
16 April 2025
Ayoub Asri
Introduction to Machine Learning
Gradient Boosting Gradient Boosting ideas Gradient Boosting : Regression Example Gradient Boosting : Lo
1 Gradient Boosting
2 Gradient Boosting ideas
3 Gradient Boosting : Regression Example
4 Gradient Boosting : Logic and Algorithm
5 Extreme Gradient Boosting (Xgboost)
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Section 1
Gradient Boosting
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Introduction to Machine Learning
Gradient Boosting Gradient Boosting ideas Gradient Boosting : Regression Example Gradient Boosting : Lo
Section 2
Gradient Boosting ideas
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Gradient Boosting : idea
Gradient Boosting is very similar idea to AdaBoost, where weak
learners are created in series in order to produce a strong
ensemble model.
Gradient Boosting makes use of the residual error for learning.
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Gradient Boosting vs AdaBoost
Larger trees allowed in Gradient Boosting.
Learning rate coefficient same for all weak learners.
Gradual series learning is based on training on the residuals of
the previous model.
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Section 3
Gradient Boosting : Regression Example
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 1
We will start by presenting an example. We will use 3 features
to predict the weight (the target variable).
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 2
First step, we will start by predict the weight variable with the
same value for every observation. The value is the average of
the variable.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 3
Then, we will calculate the residuals (real value − prediction)
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 4
Now, we will use the 3 features to create a tree to predict the
residuals (residuals not the real value)
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 5
After using Gini index, we will get this tree.
PS. in this example we allow a maximum of 4 leaves.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 6
If a leaf contain more than one observation (and this will be
common in larger datasets), we have to replace its value by the
mean of the different observations.
−14.2−15.2
For this leaf we will have : 2 = −14.7
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 7
If a leaf contain more than one observation (and this will be
common in larger datasets), we have to replace its value by the
mean of the different observations.
1.8+5.8
and for this one : 2 = 3.8
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 8
The predictions from this tree, will then become.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 9
Now, we can combine the original leaf with the new tree to get :
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 10
To make a new prediction of an individual’s weight from the
training data we will use these scheme.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 11
The prediction will, then, be :
71.2 + 16.8 = 88
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 12
We observe that the prediction is literally equal the real value.
This happen because the model fit the traing data very well
(low bias and probably very high variance).
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 13
To deal with this problem, Gradient Boosting introduce the
notion of learning rate to scale the contribution form the new
tree.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 14
In this example, we will use a learning rate = 0.1
We will get a prediction of :
71.2 + 0.1 × 16.8 = 72.9
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 15
Empirical evidence shows that taking lots of small steps
in the right direction results in better predictions with
a Testing Dataset, i.e. lower variance
— Jerom Friedman
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 16
If we use what we built so far to calculate the new predictions.
We can observe that we have taken a step to the right direction.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 17
Let’s now build a new tree to predict the residuals.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 18
Here is the new tree.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 19
As before, we will remplace the leaves with their averages.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 20
We will then combine all what we built so far to obtain the
predictions (the original average and the two trees).
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 21
We will get a prediction of :
71.2 + 0.1 × 16.8 + 0.1 × 15.1 = 74.4
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 22
We can see that each time we add a tree to the prediction, the
residuals get smaller.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 23
Now we build another tree to predict the new residuals.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 24
And add it the the chain of trees that we created so far.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Example 25
and we keep making trees until we reach the maximum
specified, or adding additional trees does not significantly
reduce the size of the residuals.
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Section 4
Gradient Boosting : Logic and Algorithm
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Gradient Boosting : Algorithm 1
Gradient Boosting algorithm
Input : Data {(xi , yi )}ni=1 and differentiable Loss Function
L(yi , F (x))
step 1 Initialize the model with a constant value :
F0 (x) = argminγ L(yi , γ)
step 2 for m = 1 to M
h i
∂L(yi ,F (xi ))
(A) Compute rim = − ∂F (xi ) for i = 1, ..., n
F (x)=Fm−1 (x)
(B) Fit a regression tree to the rim values and create terminal
regions Rjm for j = 1, ..., Jm
(C) For j = 1, ..., Jm compute
P
γjm = argminJm L(yi , Fm−1 (xi ) + γ)
PJm
(D) Update Fm (x) = Fm−1 (x) + η j=1 γm I(x ∈ Rjm )
step 3 Output FM (x)
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 1
To illustrate this algorithm we will use a very simple example.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 2
Input
Input : Data {(xi , yi )}ni=1 and differentiable Loss Function
L(yi , F (x))
Since we already have the data, we will define the Loss function
1
Loss Function = L(yi , F (x)) = (Observed − P redicted)2
2
And its derivative:
∂
L(yi , F (x)) = −(Observed − P redicted) = −error
∂P redicted
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 3
step 1
step 1 Initialize the model with a constant value :
F0 (x) = argminγ L(yi , γ)
In this step we initialize the value of the predictions.
Using the derivative we can find the minimum of the Loss
function is the mean of the Observations. Which means we will
predict the same weights (mean = 73.3) for all observations.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 4
step 2
step 2 for m = 1 to M
Step 2 is a loop where we have to determine the number of trees
used.
Generally and typically we use M = 100.
We start by stting m = 1.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 5
step 2.A
h i
∂L(yi ,F (xi ))
(A) Compute rim = − ∂F (xi ) for i = 1, ..., n
F (x)=Fm−1 (x)
We start by calculating the
∂L(yi , F (xi ))
−
∂F (xi )
Which is equal to the residual since the Loss function is a
quadratic function
Residual = (Observed − P redicted)
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 6
step 2.A
h i
∂L(yi ,F (xi ))
(A) Compute rim = − ∂F (xi ) for i = 1, ..., n
F (x)=Fm−1 (x)
We have just to replace the value of the predicted value of the
last step (F (x) = Fm−1 (x))
For every observation in the data set we will use :
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 7
step 2.B
(B) Fit a regression tree to the rim values and create terminal
regions Rjm for j = 1, ..., Jm
We will use the features to predict the residuals ri,1 calculated
in step (A).
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 8
step 2.B
(B) Fit a regression tree to the rim values and create terminal
regions Rjm for j = 1, ..., Jm
Using Gini index we obtain this tree (stump in this case because
we have only 3 observation but it is larger for a general case)
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 9
step 2.C
(C) For j = 1, ..., Jm compute
P
γjm = argminJm L(yi , Fm−1 (xi ) + γ)
The leaves are the terminal regions.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 10
step 2.C
(C) For j = 1, ..., Jm compute
P
γjm = argminJm L(yi , Fm−1 (xi ) + γ)
Typically, for larger datasets, every leaf Rjm contain many
observations.
We have to determine the prediction value for each leaf γjm .
We can easily prove that since the Loss function is quadratic
than the value of
X
γjm = argmin L(yi , Fm−1 (xi ) + γ)
Jm
is the mean of the values in that leaf.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 11
step 2.C
(C) For j = 1, ..., Jm compute
P
γjm = argminJm L(yi , Fm−1 (xi ) + γ)
In our case, we obtain.
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 12
step 2.D
PJm
(D) Update Fm (x) = Fm−1 (x) + η j=1 γm I(x ∈ Rjm )
Finally, we have to calculate the prediction :
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Gradient Boosting : Regression Algorithm 13
step 2
step 2 for m = 1 to M
After finishing all the steps for m = 1, we repeat the steps from
(A) to (D) for m = 2
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Gradient Boosting : Classification Algorithm 1
In the case of a classification problem, Gradient Boosting is the
same.
We have only to change the nature of the target variable and
the Loss function.
Changing the Loss function will have some implications (that
we will explore without proof !)
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Gradient Boosting : Classification Algorithm 2
To illustrate the difference we will use this dataset to predict if
a person who attends a cinema like the movie “troll 2”
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Gradient Boosting : Classification Algorithm 3
Input
Input : Data {(xi , yi )}ni=1 and differentiable Loss Function
L(yi , F (x))
The Loss function in case of a classification problem is the cross
entropy :
N
X
L(yi , F (x)) = − yi × log (p) + (1 − yi ) × log (1 − p)
i=1
where : p is the predicted probability (of loving troll 2), in our
case : p = 2/3 (2 persons out of 3 loving the movie).
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Gradient Boosting : Classification Algorithm 4
step 1
step 1 Initialize the model with a constant value :
F0 (x) = argminγ L(yi , γ)
We initialize the model by using :
p
F0 (x) = argmin L(yi , γ) = log odds = log ( )
γ 1−p
2/3
In our case : F0 (x) = log ( 1/3 ) = log 2 = 0.69
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Gradient Boosting : Classification Algorithm 5
step 2.A
h i
∂L(yi ,F (xi ))
(A) Compute rim = − ∂F (xi ) for i = 1, ..., n
F (x)=Fm−1 (x)
For m = 1, we calculate the residuals
elog (odds)
ri,m = Observed −
1 + elog (odds)
elog (2) 2
In our case : r1,m = Observed − 1+elog (2)
= Observed − 3
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Gradient Boosting : Classification Algorithm 6
step 2.B
(B) Fit a regression tree to the rim values and create terminal
regions Rjm for j = 1, ..., Jm
Now, we fit the tree for the residuals and determine the
terminal regions.
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Gradient Boosting : Classification Algorithm 7
step 2.C
(C) For j = 1, ..., Jm compute
P
γjm = argminJm L(yi , Fm−1 (xi ) + γ)
For the case of classification, we have :
P
redidual
γ=P
p × (1 − p)
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step 2.C
(C) For j = 1, ..., Jm compute
P
γjm = argminJm L(yi , Fm−1 (xi ) + γ)
0.33
So, for γ1,1 = 2/3×1/3 = 3/2
0.33−0.67
and γ2,1 = 2/3×1/3+2/3×1/3 = −0.77
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step 2.D
PJm
(D) Update Fm (x) = Fm−1 (x) + η j=1 γm I(x ∈ Rjm )
Finally, we calculate the prediction for m = 1 :
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step 3
step 3 Output FM (x)
We repeat these steps, till finish the loop for M trees
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Section 5
Extreme Gradient Boosting (Xgboost)
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Idea
Xgboost is the most recent version of Gradient Boosting
The algorithm is basically the same with some modification on
the Loss Function.
We will introduce this new Loss function and its implications on
the other steps of the algorithm.
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Xgboost : Loss function
The loss function used in any problem of Xgboost is :
n
X 1 2
loss function = L(yi , pi) + λOvalue
i=1
2
or
n
X 1 2
loss function = L(yi , p0i + Ovalue ) + λOvalue
i=1
2
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Xgboost for regression 1
The first prediction value in Xgboost is always
p0i = 0.5
For the case of regression models, the specifi loss function used
is :
1
L(yi , pi) = (yi − pi )2
2
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Xgboost for regression 2
Using this loss function, after creating any tree with different
regions the output of the tree will be :
Sum of residuals
Ovalue =
number of residuals + λ
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Xgboost for regression
For each node we have to calculate the similarity score
(Sum of residuals)2
similarity score =
number of residuals + λ
To decide the best split we have to calculate the Gain for each
node :
Gain = Leftsimilarity + Rightsimilarity − Rootsimilarity
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Xgboost for regression : example 1
To illustrate Xgboost we will use this data set of the effect of
drug dosage on drug effectiveness
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Xgboost for regression : example 2
We put all residuals residual = real value − 0.5 on the same node
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Xgboost for regression : example 3
we calculate the similarity score for the node
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Xgboost for regression : example 4
Now we try values of the spliting criterion (dosage sup or inf of
some values)
We start by dosage < 15
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Xgboost for regression : example 5
We calculate the similairy score for each node. We calculate the
Gain also. Gain equal to 120.33 in this case.
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Xgboost for regression : example 6
We repeat this process for different values of dosage.
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Xgboost for regression : example 7
We repeat this process for different values of dosage.
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Xgboost for regression : example 8
We reapeat this step for the right node to decide if we can split
again.
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Xgboost for classification 1
In the case of classification, the function loss used is the binary
cross entropy.
L(yi , pi ) = −(yi log (pi ) + (1 − yi ) log (1 − pi ))
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Xgboost for classification 2
Using this loss function, will give us this similarity score :
similarity score
( residuals)2
P
=P
(previous probability × (1 − previous probability)) + λ
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Xgboost for classification 3
The ouput value is then given by:
P
residuals
Ovalue = P
(previous probability × (1 − previous probability)) + λ
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