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Chapter 7C: Not Correlation Causation

11 VCE
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
27 views6 pages

Chapter 7C: Not Correlation Causation

11 VCE
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Chapter 7C

Q.9
• A correlation between the number of bars and the number of school teachers
does not mean that teachers spend time in bars.
• Correlation ̸= causation.
• The relationship is explained by underlying factors such as:
– City population – larger cities naturally have more teachers (schools)
and more bars.
– Tourism – tourist cities support more bars and usually also have bigger
schools.
– Economic activity – prosperous cities create demand for both enter-
tainment and education.
– Urbanization – dense urban areas have more institutions and leisure
places.
• Hence, the correlation arises from these common causes, not from a direct
causal link.

Q.10
• A strong negative correlation between birth rate and life expectancy does
not mean lowering birth rate will directly raise life expectancy.
• Correlation ̸= causation.
• The relationship is explained by underlying factors such as:
– Level of development – developed countries have both lower birth
rates and higher life expectancy.
– Healthcare quality – poor healthcare leads to high infant/maternal
mortality and low life expectancy.
– Socioeconomic conditions – poverty, malnutrition, lack of sanitation
and education increase birth rate and reduce life span.

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• Hence, the observed correlation arises from these common causes, not
from a direct causal link.

Q.11
(a) Explanatory and response variables
• Explanatory variable (EV): Hours (time spent gambling).
• Response variable (RV): Amount ($) spent gambling.
(b) Scatterplot / points to plot
• Points: (10,500), (11,530), (12,300), (15,750), (20,1000), (21,1200), (25,2000),
(35,2300), (40,5000).
• Scatterplot shows a positive linear trend with one extreme point (40,5000).

Figure 1: Scatterplot of Gambling Hours vs Amount Spent.


(c) Correlation coefficient r
• Mean of hours = 21.0, mean of amount = 1508.9.
• (x − x̄)2 = 912.
P

2
• (y − ȳ)2 = 17, 422, 688.9.
P


P
(x − x̄)(y − ȳ) = 116200.
116200
• r=√ ≈ 0.922.
912 × 17, 422, 688.9
• Result: Strong positive correlation.
(d) Association description
• Direction: Positive.
• Strength: Strong (r ≈ 0.922).
• Form: Roughly linear with one influential extreme point.
• Context: More hours gambling → much more money spent, but one ex-
treme value strongly affects correlation.

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Q.13 (20 employees: Salary vs Years)
Data
Secondary:
(2,52), (3,64), (2,56), (4,63), (7,65), (6,64), (7,52), (10,65), (5,59), (5,62).
Tertiary:
(2,62), (3,69), (4,75), (5,76), (4,72), (4,68), (1,63), (8,85), (3,67), (6,77).

(a) All employees


X X X X X
n = 20, x = 91, y = 1316, x2 = 513, y 2 = 87906, xy = 6095
x̄ = 4.55, ȳ = 65.8
Sxx = 98.95,Syy = 1313.20, Sxy = 107.20
107.20
r=√ ≈ 0.297
98.95 × 1313.20
Result: r = 0.297 (weak positive).

Figure 2: All employees: Salary vs Years, r = 0.297.

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(b) Secondary education
n = 10, x̄ = 5.10, ȳ = 60.2
Sxx = 56.9, Syy = 239.6, Sxy = 47.8
47.8
r=√ ≈ 0.409
56.9 × 239.6
Result: r = 0.409 (moderate positive).

Figure 3: Secondary employees: Salary vs Years, r = 0.409.

(c) Tertiary education


n = 10, x̄ = 4.0, ȳ = 71.4
Sxx = 36.0, Syy = 446.4, Sxy = 121.0
121.0
r=√ ≈ 0.954
36.0 × 446.4
Result: r = 0.954 (very strong positive).

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Figure 4: Tertiary employees: Salary vs Years, r = 0.954.

(d) Conclusion
• All employees: r = 0.297 (weak positive correlation).
• Secondary: r = 0.409 (moderate positive correlation).
• Tertiary: r = 0.954 (very strong positive correlation).
Final interpretation: Salary rises with years of service across the company,
but the increase is much stronger and more consistent for Tertiary-educated
employees. Combining both groups lowers the overall correlation.

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