CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1. Expert System definition
#What is an expert system?
© Computer system that emulates or acts in all respects with the
decision-making capabilities of human experts
© ES their roots in cognitive science ---the study of human mind using
combination of AI and psychology
© ES were the first successful applications of AI to real-world problems
solving problems in medicine, chemistry, finance and even in space
(space shuttle, robots on other planets).
An expert system is a computer program that uses artificial intelligence (AI)
technologies to simulate judgment.
❖ The expert system is part of AI, and one of the most common types of
knowledge-based systems.
• The first ES develop in 1970, which was the first successful approach
to artificial intelligence.
• Used to solve the most complex problem by extracting the knowledge stored
in your knowledge base.
❖ It is behavior of a human or an organization that has expertise and experience
in a particular field.
❖ It used to mimic human experts' decision-making processes.
❖ ES helpful for complex analyses, calculations and predictions.
❖ An expert system is a computer program that represents
- Reasons with knowledge of some specialist
- Subject with a view to solving problems
- Giving advice.
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❖ It is Used to solve expert-level problems, expert systems will need efficient
access to a substantial domain knowledge base, and a reasoning mechanism
to apply the knowledge to the problems they are given.
❖ An expert system either supports or automates decision making in an area of
which experts perform better than non-experts.
❖ It is also known as "Expert Computing Systems", or "Knowledge Based
Systems".
❖ Expert Systems also work as a style of database,
#Consider several human Expert Examples:
✓ A doctor
✓ Chess grans-master
✓ Financial wizard
✓ A chef
✓ ES-One is more than intelligent that another
❖ Intelligence Vs Expertise
➢ Expertise and intelligence are not the same thing (although
they are related).
➢ Expertise requires long time to learn (e.g., it takes 6 years to
become a doctor).
➢ Expertise is a large amount of knowledge (in some domain).
➢ Expertise is easily recalled.
➢ Intelligence allows you to your expertise (apply the
knowledge)
➢ Expertise enables you to find solutions much faster
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1.2. Typical Tasks for Expert Systems
Some typical existing expert system tasks include:
1. The interpretation of data Such as sonar (the technology w/c used to find the
problem that graved under the water, see back of the mountain) data or geophysical
measurements
2. Diagnosis of malfunctions (things cannot work properly) Such as equipment
faults or human diseases
3. Structural analysis or configuration of complex objects Such as chemical
compounds or computer systems
4. Planning sequences of actions Such as might be performed by robots
5. Predicting the future Such as weather, share prices, exchange rates
However, these days, “conventional” computer systems can also do some of these
things.
1.3. Difference between Expert System and Knowledge-based
systems
Expert systems and knowledge-based systems are both types of
knowledge-based information systems.
The main difference between the two are:
❖ expert systems specifically target the knowledge of one or more human
domain experts,
❖ While knowledge-based systems might utilize heuristics other than those
specifically emulating the processes of human domain experts.
❖ Expert systems are divided into two subsystems: the inference engine and
the knowledge base.
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A knowledge based expert system is software or computer-based information system
which comprises knowledge as data that is processed by computer programs to draw
inferences from knowledge base.
If it is not clear by the above Definition of Knowledge base and inference engine,
Here is a brief summary of the similarities and differences between the inference
engine and the knowledge base system in an expert system, based on the information
Similarities:
• Both are essential components of an expert system that enable it to solve
problems that require human expertise.
• Both use artificial intelligence methods to represent and manipulate
knowledge in a specific domain.
• Both interact with each other to provide answers to the user’s queries.
Differences:
• The knowledge base system stores facts and rules about the domain, while the
inference engine applies the rules to the facts to infer new facts or conclusions.
• The knowledge base system is acquired from human experts through
interviews and observations, while the inference engine is designed by
knowledge engineers using logic and algorithms.
• The knowledge base system is organized in a structured way, such as using
“if-then” rules or frames, while the inference engine can use different methods
of reasoning, such as forward chaining or backward chaining.
Subdivisions:
• The knowledge base system can be subdivided into two parts: the declarative
knowledge and the procedural knowledge. The declarative knowledge
consists of facts and assertions about the domain, such as “glaucoma is a
disease of the eye”. The procedural knowledge consists of rules and strategies
for solving problems, such as “if a person has glaucoma, then prescribe eye
drops”.
• The inference engine can be subdivided into two parts: the control mechanism
and the explanation facility. The control mechanism determines how the
inference engine selects and applies rules to the facts in the knowledge base.
The explanation facility provides justification and transparency for the
inference engine’s actions and conclusions.
1.3.1.What is a knowledge-based system?
A knowledge-based system (KBS) is a type of computer system that
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- analyzes knowledge
- analyzes data and
- Other information from sources to generate new knowledge.
❖ It is a computer-based system which uses and produces knowledge from data,
information and knowledge.
❖ These systems have the ability to understand the information that is being
processed and can take a final decision based on it.
❖ It uses AI concepts to solve problems, which may be useful for assisting with
human learning and making decisions.
❖ These systems often have built-in problem-solving capabilities that allow
them to understand the context of the data that they review and process and
make informed decisions based on the knowledge that they store.
Components of (KBS)
Knowledge-based systems typically have three components, which include:
1. Knowledge base:
- A knowledge base is an established collection of information and resources.
- It is a repository (storage place) for the knowledge and it uses to make decisions.
- The knowledge base represents facts and rules.
2. Interface engine (something used to achieve a purpose)
- , while the inference engine applies the rules to the known facts to reduce new
facts.
- An interface engine processes data throughout the system.
- It acts similarly to a search engine within the system by locating relevant
information based on the requests.
3. User interface:
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- The user interface is how the knowledge-based system appears to users on the
computer.
- This allows users to interact with the system and submit requests.
1.8. Why Expert Systems fail
Expert systems can fail for several reasons:
• They are unable to cope with problems that bend the rules.
• They are not grounded in cases and cannot fall back on the details of their
experience.
• They require common sense or knowledge of the limitations of their knowledge.
• They cannot be tested.
Today, expert systems are "settled science".
It is routinely employed in all sorts of fields. But, when they're used, they tend to be
buried behind the scenes as support functionality, rather than a fundamental core
idiom of development and design.
For example, and I likely have the details of this anecdote incorrect, there is (was) a
service in the Windows OS around the networking stack, and they chose to write
that little piece in Prolog. Prolog is, essentially, a programming language with a built
in "expert system". The rule set for the task was a good match for Prolog
CHAPTER TWO: EXPERT SYSTEM TO DAY
2.1. Expert System for competitive advantage
Expert systems today are computer programs that use artificial intelligence to mimic
the reasoning and decision-making of human experts in a specific domain. They
have three core components: the knowledge base, the inference engine, and the user
interface. The knowledge base contains the data and rules that the system works
with, the inference engine applies the rules to the data to draw conclusions, and the
user interface allows the system to communicate with the user or other systems.
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Expert systems are also evolving with new technologies, such as cloud computing,
IoT, and machine learning. These technologies enable expert systems to handle more
complex and dynamic problems, as well as to learn from data and user feedback.
Some of the current challenges and opportunities for expert systems are:
• Knowledge acquisition: How to obtain, represent, and update the knowledge
base of an expert system efficiently and accurately.
• Explain ability: How to provide clear and understandable explanations for the
reasoning and decisions of an expert system.
• Integration: How to combine expert systems with other AI techniques and
systems, such as neural networks, natural language processing, and computer
vision.
Expert systems are not only useful tools for solving problems, but also powerful
partners for human experts. They can augment human capabilities, enhance decision
making, and facilitate knowledge sharing. Expert systems demonstrate the potential
and value of the human-AI collaboration.
Expert systems have many applications in various fields, such as medical
diagnosis, engineering, finance, law, education, and more. They can help solve
complex problems, provide advice, explain their reasoning, and learn from
feedback. Some examples of expert systems are:
MYCIN: A medical expert system that can diagnose and treat bacterial
infections.
• DENDRAL: A chemical expert system that can identify the structure of
organic molecules based on their mass spectra.
• PROSPECTOR: A geological expert system that can assist in mineral
exploration and discovery.
• XCON: A configuration expert system that can design and configure
computer systems based on customer specifications.
Expert systems today are still evolving and improving, as new technologies and
techniques emerge. Some of the challenges and opportunities for expert systems are:
• Integrating expert systems with other AI technologies, such as natural
language processing, computer vision, machine learning, and neural
networks.
• Developing expert systems that can handle uncertainty, ambiguity, and
conflicting information.
• Enhancing the user interface and the explanation capabilities of expert
systems.
• Evaluating the performance and the reliability of expert systems.
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• Addressing the ethical and social issues of expert systems, such as
accountability, transparency, privacy, and bias.
A company is said to have a competitive advantage over its rivals when it is able to
sustain profits that exceed average for the industry.
❖ According to Porter, there are two primary methods for obtaining
competitive advantage: cost advantage and differentiation advantage.
❖ So, the question becomes: how can information technology be a factor in
one or both of these methods?
The Most important of Expert System are:
1. Enhanced Output and Productivity:
An expert system works more rapidly than normal human-beings.
2. Reduce the Decision-Making Time:
✓ With the help of the Expert system, a human being can make decisions at a rapid
speed.
✓ It is efficient for the frontline decision-maker, whom they often meet with
customers.
3. Enhance Process and Product Quality:
✓ The expert system offers the best advice
✓ Reducing the size and rate of errors.
✓ It helps in improving product quality.
4. Flexibility: It provides flexibility in the service and manufacturing sectors.
5. Decrease the Downtime
Machine downtime is decreased as Expert System can find malfunctions and suggest
repairs when needed.
6. Easier Equipment Operations
With the help of the Expert system, the complex equipment becomes easier to
administer.
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7. The Capture of Scarce Expertise
✓ An expert system offers support when the expertise becomes scarcely
available.
✓ This situation arises when experts are not available to present for the task, the
expert is on the verge of retiring, or the required expertise is needed in more
than one place.
8. Removal of the Need for Expensive Equipment
Expert system act as monitoring and control with the help of low-cost instruments.
It is achievable as the Expert system promptly and in detail analyses the information
by the instruments.
9. Functioning in the Difficult Environment
✓ The expert system allows human beings to ignore working in dangerous
condition as the Expert system tend to ignore the hot, toxic, and moist
environment.
For example, a malfunctioned nuclear plant. This is beneficial in a time of war.
10. Accessibility to Knowledge and Help Desks
It allows access to knowledge and relieves the experts from their daily routines.
People can put forward their queries and can receive satisfactory replies.
11.Criteria of Training:
✓ The expert system offers training to the new ones who turn experienced
with the work.
✓ Explanations and notes are installed in the knowledge system base and
behave as teaching tools.
12.Improves Decision-Making Process and Quality
✓ It endorses a better understanding of the decision-making condition as it
offers immediate feedback, facilitates communication among the decision-
makers, and permits quick responses to environmental change.
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✓ It is reliable as it gives attention to details and tries to provide an error-free
solution.
13.24 X 7
✓ The expert system is accessible 24 x7 and never rest offs.
✓ It decreases dependence on one expert.
✓ It is devoid of emotion; unlike humans, the decision would be the purely
rational base.
14.High Level of Experience
✓ One of the interesting characteristics of the Expert system is that it
offers high-level expertise while solving the query.
✓ It provides the best thinking, just like good experts, and
✓ Ends up with accurate, efficient, and imaginative solutions to the problem.
15.Institutional Memory
✓ This system is a corpus of knowledge
✓ It behaves as institutional memory.
✓ It implies that their expertise remains firm when important people leave the
organization.
16.Predictive Modeling Power
The system behaves as a problem-solving model, offers quality solutions to given
questions, and explains changes occurring in new situations. It's another important
significant as it helps the user to analyze the possible impact of changes in data or
facts. It also helps in analyzing the relationships between changes to the outcome.
2.2. Market understanding of Expert System
An expert system is a type of artificial intelligence program that uses a knowledge
base of human expertise for problem solving. Expert systems were the first AI
methodology before the development of neural networks, which are more powerful
and flexible.
The market understanding of expert systems is the awareness and demand for this
technology in various domains and industries. Expert systems have been used for
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applications such as medical diagnosis, financial planning, engineering design, legal
reasoning, and many more. Expert systems can provide benefits such as increased
productivity, reduced errors, improved consistency, and enhanced decision making.
However, expert systems also have some limitations and challenges, such as the
difficulty of acquiring and maintaining the knowledge base, the lack of common
sense and creativity, the brittleness and inflexibility of the system, and the ethical
and social issues of replacing human experts. Therefore, the market understanding
of expert systems should consider both the advantages and disadvantages of this
technology, as well as the current and future trends and developments in the field.
According to some sources, the expert systems market has been growing steadily
since the late 1970s, and is expected to continue to grow in the future. Some factors
that may influence the market understanding of expert systems are the availability
and affordability of hardware and software, the level of education and training of the
users and developers, the degree of trust and acceptance of the system, and the legal
and regulatory frameworks that govern the use of the technology. The market
understanding of expert systems may also vary depending on the region, industry,
and domain of application.
✓ Expert System Environment, thus making the reader familiar with an actual
marketing system as well as the working of an expert system tool.
✓ The tool is described in some depth.
✓ Expert System can move the tools from artificial intelligence
laboratories into the commercial marketplace.
✓ Commercial marketplace is providing the marketing systems' community with
a new resource for supporting and enhancing marketing decision making.
THE PROMOTION ADVISOR KNOWLEDGE BASE (Read for your knowledge)
✓ The objective of this knowledge base is to provide advice to a marketing manager
regarding the promotion of a particular brand of a product.
✓ The ultimate outcome of a consultation with the promotion advisor is advice
regarding which specific promotion devices the manager should employ.
✓ Promotion devices refer to methods such as coupons, in-pack premiums, rebates,
contests, etc.
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✓ However; before specific promotion devices can be recommended, the system
must identify appropriate promotion strategies.
Product promotion strategies used in the knowledge bases are taken from the
following set:
Trial: This strategy is used to provide incentives and mechanisms for consumers to
be introduced to the product and its benefits.
Retrial: Under certain conditions, it is best for the consumer to experience use of
the product more than one time, and a retrial strategy is appropriate.
Continuity: Under other conditions, it is desirable to induce consumers to develop
a repetitive pattern of purchasing the product.
✓ Continuity refers to continuity of purchase.
Convenience: Still other conditions will dictate a convenience purchase
Strategy: This approach induces the consumer to purchase substantial quantities of
the product at one time.
The promotion advisor requests information about the following circumstances:
1. Characteristics of the brand item
2. Performance of the brand within the market and
3. Characteristics of the market
2.3. Expert System applications
In the field of design and manufacture: It can widely use to design and manufacture
physical devices such as camera lenses and cars.
1. In the area of knowledge:
- These systems mainly use to publish knowledge relevant to users.
- The two popular ESs used for this area are an advisor and a tax advisor.
2. In the financial field: In the financial industries, it uses
- to detect any possible fraud (hacker)
- to detect any suspicious activity and
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- to indicate to bankers whether or not to grant business loans.
3. In diagnosing and troubleshooting devices: In medical diagnostics, the ES
system use, and this was the first area in which these systems operate.
- The expert system can help medical professionals diagnose diseases,
analyze symptoms, and provide treatment options based on medical
history, symptoms, and test results.
- For example, MYCIN is an expert system for diagnosing bacterial
infections
4. Planning and scheduling: And also, expert systems can also plan and
schedule specific particular tasks to achieve that task.
Expert systems have numerous applications in various industries, including
healthcare, finance, engineering, and many others
5. Quality Control: The expert system can help identify defects or quality
concerns by analyzing production data or testing results.
- An example is the DENDRAL expert system for chemical structure
determination
6. Customer Support: The expert system can help customers troubleshoot
technical issues or provide product-related advice based on a user’s queries or
inputs.
- An example expert system is XCON, used for configuring computer
systems
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