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Empirical Probability Basics

Empirical probability estimates the likelihood of events based on past observations or experiments, rather than theoretical calculations. It is calculated as the number of times an event occurs divided by the total number of trials. For example, if 140 odd numbers came up in 200 dice rolls, the empirical probability of rolling an odd number would be 140/200 or 70%. Empirical probability provides a real-world estimation of probabilities based on experimental data.

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Rengie Frasco Gomez
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216 views10 pages

Empirical Probability Basics

Empirical probability estimates the likelihood of events based on past observations or experiments, rather than theoretical calculations. It is calculated as the number of times an event occurs divided by the total number of trials. For example, if 140 odd numbers came up in 200 dice rolls, the empirical probability of rolling an odd number would be 140/200 or 70%. Empirical probability provides a real-world estimation of probabilities based on experimental data.

Uploaded by

Rengie Frasco Gomez
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Empirical

Probability
What is Empirical Probability?
• The empirical probability,
relative frequency, or
experimental probability of
an event is the ratio of the
number of outcomes in which
a specified event occurs to
the total number of trials, not
in a theoretical sample space
but in an actual experiment.
More generally, empirical
probability estimates
probabilities from experience
and observation.
• Empirical probability is the probability your
experiment will give you a certain result.
• For example, you could toss a coin 100 times to
see how many heads you get, or you could
perform a taste test to see if 100 people preferred
cola A or cola B. You could use this information to
make an educated guess (a statistic) about what
your probabilities would be if you performed the
experiments 1000, 10,000 or even an unlimited
number of times. If you don’t actually perform the
experiment—if you just theorize about it— then
that’s called theoretical probability.
As a mathematical formula, empirical probability is
denoted with prime notation (Thompson, 2005):

P′(A) = n(A) / n
Where:
• n(A) is the number of times event A happens,
• n is the number of attempts at the experiment.
Example 1
• Suppose that in an experiment where the die was
tossed 200 times, odd numbers appeared 140
times.
• Empirical probability depends on past data, so from
this, we expect odd numbers to appear with an
empirical probability of:
• P'(A) = n(A) / n = 140/200 = 0.7 or 70%.
Example 2
• You wanted to know the probability a person
prefers cola A over cola B. Your taste test of 100
people reveals that 75 people prefer cola A.
• Your probability is:
• Number of ways the thing occurs (75) / number of
ways the thing could possibly occur (100) = 75/100
= 3/4 or 75%.
Example 3
• In a buffet, 95 out of 100 people chose to order
coffee over tea. What is the empirical probability of
someone ordering tea?
• Empirical Probability = 5 / 100 = 5%. The empirical
probability of someone ordering tea is 5%.
Example 4
• The table below shows a dice thrown three times
and the corresponding result. What is the empirical
probability of rolling a 4?

• Empirical Probability = 0 / 3 = 0%. The empirical


probability of rolling a 4 is 0%.
Example 5
• The table below shows a coin toss three times and
the corresponding result. What is the empirical
probability of getting a head?

• Empirical Probability = 3 / 3 = 100%. The empirical


probability of getting a head is 100%.
Thank you for listening 😃
By : Maria Niña Agustin
Ray Christ Amoro

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