THE CROWD AND THE CLOUD:
THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNET ON
U.S. PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS
Michael R. Nelson
Visiting Professor, Internet Studies
Communication, Culture and Technology Program
Georgetown University
MNELSON@[Link]
•1
My Background
Ph.D., geophysics, MIT
A technologist not a political scientist
5 years as Senator Gore's science
advisor
IT, networking, climate change, biotech, . . .
whatever
4 years as IT policy guru at White
House
Policy NOT politics
9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet
Tech.
Taipei 5 Jan 2009
Why politics is harder
Laws of science don’t change, only
our understanding of them
Taipei 5 Jan 2009
Why politics is harder
Laws of science don’t change, only
our understanding of them
In contrast, the whole point of
politics is to change laws
Taipei 5 Jan 2009
Why politics is harder
Laws of science don’t change, only
our understanding of them
In contrast, the whole point of politics
is to change laws
Scientists understand and appreciate
numbers
Taipei 5 Jan 2009
Why politics is harder
Laws of science don’t change, only
our understanding of them
In contrast, the whole point of politics
is to change laws
Scientists understand and appreciate
numbers
Many politicians don’t appreciate
numbers, stats, or uncertainty – and
fear them
Taipei 5 Jan 2009
Why politics is harder
Laws of science don’t change, only
our understanding of them
In contrast, the whole point of politics
is to change laws
Scientists understand and appreciate
numbers
Many politicians don’t appreciate
numbers, stats, or uncertainty – and
fear them
Three-body problem vs. 100-body
Taipei 5 Jan 2009
My Empirical approach
Scientists are inherently empirical
We thrive on case studies and data
Geologists are the most empirical of
scientists
I’ll tell the stories, but you’ll have to
help me draw conclusions
Taipei 5 Jan 2009
2nd most important slide
Bibliography
• “How Obama REALLY did it,” Sept.-
Oct. 2008 issue of MIT’s Technology
Review
• Rebooting America
• [Link]
• [Link] (esp. the
blog)
The Revolution Will Not Be Televised:
Democracy, the Internet, and the
Taipei 5 Jan 2009
Internet as symbol
1992 campaign
Clinton and Gore white paper on
“information superhighways” and the
Internet
President Bush unfamiliar with grocery
scanner?
1993 – White House Web site
launched
2008 – McCain’s lack of “clue”
Vice President can do “less important
issues
Taipei
like technology”
5 Jan 2009
Internet as fund-raising
tool
2004 – Howard Dean demonstrated
the power of Internet fund-raising
Broke records for Democratic fund-raising
Raised more than $50 million total, much
from Net
Average donation = $80
2008 – Obama took it to the next level
Jan 2008 raised $28 million, 90% of
donations <$100
$657 million total from individual
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donors,50% < $200
Internet as broadcast
device
More than 3 million people signed up
on [Link]
Billions of e-mails and SMS messages
Example:
SMS reminder to vote at 12:24 PM
Election Day
SMS congratulatory note, 9:05 PM
Election Night
“We just made history. All of this
happened because you gave your time,
Taipei talent
5 Jan 2009 and passion to this campaign. All of
Internet as connector
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Clay Shirky: Here Comes
Everybody
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Examples
Flash mobs
Obama campaign
[Link]
My class
Al-Qaeda (unfortunately)
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Self-organizing
More than 100,000 different events
organized:
Voter registration
Door-to-door canvassing
Viewing parties
Party platform parties
Bottom up
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Internet as virtual
space
Obama created campaign office in
Second Life in March, 2008
Obama Fest '08 organized by
Obama’s Second Life supporters in
September, 2008
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Obama in Second Life, March
2008
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Obama campaign office
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Internet for advertising
Normal banner ads
Better targeting
Ads in virtual worlds
Obama campaign office in Second life
Ads in 16 Electronic Arts online
games
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Internet as computer
• Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google:
“We’re moving into the era of “cloud”
computing, with information and
applications hosted in the diffuse
atmosphere of cyberspace rather than on
specific processors and silicon racks. The
network will truly be the computer.”
• E-mail, data, software all stored “in
the cloud”
• Access from anywhere with Internet
access
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This is a VERY big deal
Gartner Says Cloud Computing
Will Be As Influential As E-
business
Special Report Examines the
Realities and Risks of Cloud
Computing (June 26, 2008)
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Challenges caused by
Cloud
Access Control
Computer security
Both Obama and McCain campaign’s
systems hacked
Too much information, too many
tools?
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The Real Issue: CONTROL
It’s not just about the technology
It’s about how you let your team use
it
Four case studies:
Obama – community organizer
Clinton – government bureaucracy
McCain – military hierarchy
Ron Paul – total anarchy
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Keys to Success
Clear vision and goals effectively
communicated—over and over and
over
Flexibility to allow team members to
find new ways to achieve the goals
Talented people
(who attract other talented people)
Free flow of information
So good decisions are made quickly
So 5bad
Taipei Jan 2009 ideas are spotted early and
Two models of management
1960s Military Community
Model organizing
•26
Campaign 2.0 checklist
Obama Clinton McCain Paul
Vision/goals A C D B
Flexibility A C C A
Talent A+ B C D
Tools A B C A
Implementati B D A A
on
Info access B C C F
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Easy Predictions
In 2012, every Presidential candidate
will try to emulate Obama’s Internet,
SMS, and IT strategies
And so will many candidates for
governor, House, and Senator
Role of television will decrease
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Challenges for campaigns
Picking the right technologies, esp. for cloud
services
Being flexible but not stupid
Keeping information channels open
Ensuring security of IT systems and information
Installing a common vision and esprit de corps
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The really big question
How will Obama’s Internet campaign
shape the way he governs?
• He knows he won because of the Net
, the crowd, and the Cloud
• He’ll be the first Internet president:
• More high-level focus on IT, S&T issues
• Better people in tech policy positions
• More investment in R&D and IT
infrastructure
• Millions
Taipei 5 Jan 2009 of Obama supporters ready
Roles for [Link]
More than 3 million person on-line
army
Almost unlimited source of advice and
ideas
Potential for frustration re: narrow issues
Independent efforts growing
[Link] and [Link]
Possible source of millions of amateur
lobbyists
Mobilize for local action?
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Conclusions
The Internet Revolution is less
than 15% complete
We’ve seen less than 10% of the
Net’s potential impact on US
politics
Wiki-style politics unleashes the
“wisdom of crowds”—and the
“power of crowds”
Cloud computing will “change the
game”
When in doubt, empower the
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