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Bach
hmann Vulne
erable to
t Defe
eat in 2
2012
Status
s of the Contest
C
for
f U.S. Congres
C
ss
To:
Interested
d Parties
Congress
swoman Mic
chele Bachm
manns unsu
uccessful bid
d for preside
ent had a cle
ear and neg
gative
th
impact on her standing among voters
v
in the new Minnessota 6 CD. She receivves low markks on
both herr job perform
mance and personal fa
avorability. While she is well-deffined and almost
universally known, her support is
s below 50 percent
p
in a two-way co
ontest for U.S
S. Congresss. Her
weaker standing le
eaves her vulnerable to defeat in this No
ovembers election ag
gainst
business
sman Jim Grraves.
6th Congresssional Distrrict1 shows tthat the districts
A poll off 505 likely voters in Minnesotas
M
voters arre not as conservative as
a conventio
onal wisdom
m suggests. While there
e is a Repub
blican
advantag
ge in partisanship, voterrs split on fee
elings towarrd groups likke Planned P
Parenthood (40
34 perce
ent warm/co
ool ratings) and
a
pro-life, anti-abortio
on groups ((41 38 pe
ercent warm
m/cool
ratings). The Tea Party receiv
ves net neg
gative rating
gs among tthe districtss voters, witth 30
percent warm
w
and 43
3 percent co
ool ratings.
Bachman
nn also com
mes to the 20
012 elections with poor standing witth voters in the district. Just
39 perce
ent give her positive job performanc
ce ratings of either exce
ellent (14 percent) or g
good
(26 perce
ent), while 22
2 percent rate
r
her job as just fairr and more
e than one-third (34 perrcent)
rate her job
j performa
ance as poo
or. Bachma
ann is known
n by nearly e
every constittuent (96 pe
ercent
can identify and rate
e her), but re
eactions to her are stro
ongly negativve, with 51 p
percent of vvoters
giving he
er a cool, neg
gative rating
g and just 35
5 percent givving her a wa
arm, positive
e rating.
This surv
vey was prep
pared and sup
pervised by Greenberg
G
Qu inlan Rosner Research, In
nc. Calling too
ok
place June12-14, 2012
2. These findings, based on
o a sample ssize of 505 registered and likely November
ers, are subjec
ct to a sampliing error of 4
4.4 percentag
ge points at a 95 percent cconfidence intterval.
2012 vote
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UROPEAN HEADQU
UARTERS
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Minnesota
a CD-6: Status
s of the Contes
st
Figu
ure 1: Bachm
mann Job Pe
erformance and Person al Standing
The race
e for U.S. Co
ongress refle
ects her wea
akness with B
Bachmann u
under 50 perrcent and lea
ading
by only 5 points (48 43 percentt, with 9 perc
cent undecid
ded).
Figu
ure 2: Congrressional He
ead-to-Head
June
e 2012
Minnesota
a CD-6: Status
s of the Contes
st
June
e 2012
Jim Graves
G
s for Congres
ss
Frequency Qu
uestionna
aire
June 12 - 14, 2012
505 Like
ely Voters
Almos
st certain......................... ............................................... 94
Probably ................................. ................................................ 5
50-50 ...................................... ................................................ 1
Won't vote .............................. ................................................. (Don't know) ........................... ................................................ 0
(Refus
sed)................................ ................................................. (ref:W
WILLVOTE2)
[15 Resp
pondents]
Q.3 (ASK
K IF NAME NOT
N
ON FIL
LE) How ofte
en would you
u say you vo
ote?
Total
2012 Gre
eenberg Quinla
an Rosner, All Rights Reserve
ed.
June
e, 2012
Q.4 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or
do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Total
26
22
34
39
Q.6 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred
meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE
feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one
hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
%
%
Mean Warm Cool
%
ID
42
45
98
33
47
98
36
41
98
35
51
96
46
29
90
30
43
87
20
35
44
94
41
38
92
15 Minneapolis ................................................................................. 62
52
14
85
40
34
92
June, 2012
Q.17 I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November, if
the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the DFL candidate or for the
Republican candidate?
Total
June, 2012
Q.20 Now I am going to read you some information about the candidates running for U.S
Congress.
Jim Graves, a businessman, was born and raised in St. Cloud as one of six siblings in a
middle-class family, where he worked to pay his own tuition for Catholic high school. He married
his high school sweetheart, Julie, and worked his way through St. Cloud State University. Graves
started the AmericInn motel chain from the ground up, creating thousands of good paying jobs for
the people of Minnesota. A Christian, Graves has spent his adult life volunteering in the
community and serving organizations dedicated to helping women and families. He is running for
Congress to take his experience creating jobs and building businesses to Washington, and will
work to restore fiscal responsibility, create more jobs that pay a living wage, and level the playing
field so that every American has the chance to reach their goals in life.
Michele Bachmann moved to Minnesota when she was 13, and graduated from Anoka High
School and Winona State University. She met her husband, Marcus, in college, and they married
and moved to Stillwater, where they run a Christian counseling center and cared for 23 foster
children. In Congress, Bachmann is a leading advocate for bipartisan earmark reform and tax
relief and is a staunch opponent of wasteful government spending. She pushed hard to get the
House of Representatives to authorize replacing the Stillwater Bridge, and worked across the
aisle with Minnesota's Senate delegation to get the bill signed by President Obama. She is a
reformer who stays true to her conservative beliefs while pushing for real reform of the broken
ways of Washington.
Q.21 After hearing more information, thinking again about the election for U.S. Congress in
November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were DFLer Jim
Graves and Republican Michele Bachmann for who would you vote?
Total
June, 2012
18 - 24 .................................................................................. 7
25 - 29 .................................................................................. 6
30 - 34 .................................................................................. 5
35 - 39 ................................................................................. 11
40 - 44 ................................................................................. 10
45 - 49 ................................................................................. 11
50 - 54 ................................................................................. 10
55 - 59 .................................................................................. 8
60 - 64 ................................................................................. 10
65 and over ......................................................................... 21
(No answer) .......................................................................... 1
(ref:AGE)
Q.23 What is the last year of schooling that you have completed?
Total
Liberal.................................................................................. 19
Moderate ............................................................................. 36
Conservative ....................................................................... 42
(Don't know/refused) ............................................................ 2
(ref:IDEO1)
June, 2012
Q.26 How often do you attend church or religious services -- every week, once or twice a month,
several times a year, or hardly ever?
Total
Male..................................................................................... 47
Female ................................................................................ 53
(ref:GENDER)
June, 2012