Washington, DC 20007ph 202-625-0370
To:TheHeitkamp CampaignFrom:The Mellman Group, Inc.Re:Heitkamp Continues To Be In A Strong PositionTo WinDate:October 21, 2012
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 600votersrepresenting the likely 2012North Dakotaelectorate who were interviewed bytelephone October 16-19, 2012.The study uses a random sampleandhas a margin of error of+/-4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. Themargin of error is higher for subgroups.
Heidi Heitkamp is in a strong position to defeat Congressman Rick Berg in the upcoming election forU.S. Senate. She goes into the final weeks of the campaign with real strength among independentsand continues to supplement her share of the vote with cross-party support.
Heitkamp holds a 3-point leadoverCongressman Rick Berg (45%Heitkamp, 42% Berg). Heitkampenjoys a 17-point advantage amongindependents (48% Heitkamp, 31%Berg) and a 35-point lead amongmoderates(59% Heitkamp, 24% Berg),and garnersnearly fourtimesas manyRepublican votes (11%) as Berg getsfromDemocrats(3%).North Dakotans have a long history ofsplitting their tickets in Presidentialelections. Indeed, North Dakota hasproduced different party winners for Senate and President in half the elections where both were onthe ballot—more often than any state but one. For example, in 2000, when Al Gore was losing the state by 28 points, Senator Kent Conrad won by 23 points.While Heitkamp has successfully weathered millions of dollars in attack ads, with a majority of voterscontinuing to view her favorably(50% favorable,38% unfavorable)Berg’s unfavorables now exceedhis favorables, leaving his image at a new nadir. Only 42% of North Dakota voters view him favorablycompared to 43% who hold unfavorable opinions. His job performance ratings are also as weak asthey have been all year, with only 33% rendering positive evaluations and 55% holding negativeviews. Independents are even soureronBerg, with a 50% viewing him unfavorably and 60% rating hisperformance in office negatively.