October 31, 2012 TO: FR: Tammy Baldwin for Senate Diane Feldman

RE: Wisconsin Senate Polling _________________________________________________________________________ Democratic candidate Tammy Baldwin has the lead in the United States Senate contest in Wisconsin with 48 percent support to 45 percent for Republican Tommy Thompson. Baldwins lead has been consistent since early September and Thompsons recent attacks have not fundamentally changed the race. Baldwin is in a strong position heading into the final days of the election. Baldwins portrayal of Thompson as not for you 60 anymore continues to 50 resonate with voters, as a 50 40 percent majority hold an 30 unfavorable view of 20 Thompson. The Thompson 10 campaign was unable to 0 change the dynamics of the race by attacking Baldwin on national security, and the race remains steady heading into the final week before Election Day.
Fall Senate Polling

44

50 6

50

45 5

48 44 8

49 44 7

47 44 9

48 45 7

Aug

S ept

Oct. 17

Oct. 22

Oct. 28

Oct. 31

Baldwin

Thompson

Undecided

Table 1: Candidate Comparison Bald win Will stand up for the middle class 45 Will protect Medicare 42 Will raise taxes on the middle class 27 Will follow what the special interests want 24 Puts themselves first 22 More a part of Washington than Wisconsin 21

Thom pson 30 28 35 38 38 44

Net Diff 15 14 -8 -14 -16 -23

Polling results in the final weeks before the election show a consistent advantage for Tammy Baldwin in messaging and current standing.
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Methodology: Eight hundred interviews were conducted between October 28th and 30th by professional interviewers. The sample was pulled from voters who had participated in the 2008 or 2010 general elections or 2012 recall election or who had registered since 2008, and respondents were screened additionally for likely participation in the 2012 election. Nineteen (19) percent of respondents were reached on their cell phones, consistent with the percent of cell phones on the voter file. The partisan identification of the sample was 32 percent Democrat, 24 percent Republican and 40 percent independent, and the sample reflects statistical modeling of partisanship on the file supplied by Catalist. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at 95 percent confidence.

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