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Background Briefing: South China Sea: Chinas Navy Steps Up Patrols Carlyle A. Thayer April 2, 2013

[client name deleted] Q1. What is your assessment of the alleged firing by a Chinese navy ship on a Vietnamese fishing ship? Considering that a naval ship was involved and it fired (flares or otherwise), does this signal a shift in Chinas stance or posture? Xinhua seems to identify the ship as a naval vessel. See: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90786/8184726.html ANSWER: Since the standing up of the military garrison with the elevation of Sansha City to prefecture status, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been given increased responsibilities in the waters around the Paracel Islands. This incident appears to be an isolated one in which the PLAN vessel exhausted other means to warn off the Vietnamese fishermen (flag signals, whistles etc.) before firing flares. Chinese captains operate with a certain degree of impunity against foreign fishermen. It is not possible to make a conclusive judgment on the basis of present information about whether the flares were deliberately fired to cause damage or whether there was a miscalculation and the flares hit the Vietnamese fishing boat. Q2. Vietnams foreign ministry responded by describing it as an extremely grave incident. Is this an unusual response? Does this signal an unusually strong response from Vietnam? ANSWER: Comments by the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry do not appear to be overly harsh. These comments are designed for two audiences, the Chinese government and domestic public opinion. The incident was grave from the Vietnamese point of view because it appears out of step with a relative relaxation in Chinese harassment of Vietnamese fishing vessels over the past year. It was also grave in the sense that the flares reportedly set the fishing boat on fire and this could have led to loss of life. Q3. A small Chinese fleet recently held an oath-taking ceremony at what Xinhua describes as southernmost Chinese territory. The location was at Zemgmu Reef (3.58 degrees north latitude and 112.17 degrees east longitude) and it appearts it was around 110 km from the Malaysian coast. What is your assessment of this? ANSWER: James Shoal marks the extreme southern point of Chinas claim to the South China Sea depicted in its nine-dash line u-shaped map. This incident was mainly symbolic but also carried with it a demonstration of Chinese capabilities to

2 deploy a highly capable force capable of seizing any island feature within China nine- dash line map. What few analysts have mentioned is that China would have to sustain such a force indefinitely once it was ashore and deal with the international backlash by such actions. Q4. Could this be seen as provocation by other countries, especially Malaysia and Brunei? And since Malaysia and Brunei have been among the most passive of the South China Sea claimants, why would China risk involving them? ANSWER: Chinas symbolic exercise of its historic rights may prove counterproductive because it may raise security concerns in Malaysia and Brunei. They have been unusually circumspect in their public comments on territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Brunei, as ASEAN Chair, may be more willing to push ASEANs attempt to reach a Code of Conduct with China. It should be noted that Chinas naval flotilla did not violate international law. Chinas actions were no more provocative than calibrated assertions by the U.S. Navy of freedom on navigation in Malaysian waters. Malaysia, and sixty other littoral countries around the world, requires prior notification when foreign military vessels enter it waters. The US argues this is contrary to international law and routinely conducts calibrated challenges to reinforce its view of freedom of navigation. Q5. Chinas ministry of National Defence recently said the military would beef up cooperation with maritime law enforcement forces. What do you think this means? Are we likely to see more navy ships being sent into disputed waters not currently controlled by China? http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90786/8187240.html. ANSWER: China is in the process of unifying at least five maritime enforcement agencies into one Coast Guard. At the same time, China is promoting interoperability between its military and civilian maritime enforcement agencies. Last year joint exercises were held in scenarios involving Chinas response to incident involving foreign vessels that damaged civilian paramilitary ships. Last year China transferred some decommissioned navy vessels to its civilian enforcement agencies. China is trying to maximize its ability to conduct rights protection patrols in waters that it claims. Up to know PLAN vessels have remained over the horizon ready to intervene if civilian enforcement vessels needed assistance. Now China is integrating both military and civilian fleets in response to the naval and coast guard build up by the Philippines and Vietnam. China is seeking to deter these countries. Recall that the Scarborough Shoal incident in April last year was precipitated when the Philippines dispatches a navy frigate (a former US Coast Guard cutter) to investigate the activities of Chinese fishing boats. In late January, Vietnam formed a new fishery bureau to coordinate patrols in the South China Sea to prevent foreign fishing vessels from operating in Vietnmaese waters. These include civilian vessels and boats including the Marine Police and the Border Force. This week Vietnam announced that its Marine Police would provide protection for Vietnamese fishermen. Q6. A Chinese naval fleet (the same one that held the oath-taking exercise) also patrolled Meiji Reef recently (I believe thats Mischief Reef right?). Taken together with the actions described above, are we seeing a stepping up of pressure from

3 China in the South China Sea? Or increased aggressiveness? ANSWER: Last year China announced that it would conduct up to thirty naval exercises in the South China Sea this year. The naval squadron that sailed to James Shoal conducted landing exercises at Chigua Reef, Yongshu Reef and Huayang Reef in the Spratly islands prior to arrival at James Shoal. The Chinese military is clearly responding with alacrity to calls by Chinas party leaders to become a maritime power and to conduct more practical combat related exercises. We are definitely seeing a step up in Chinese pressure against littoral states and a challenge to US rebalancing. It is unlikely that PLAN ships will be directed to instigate incidents, this will be left to the China Marine Surveillance fleet and ships belonging to the Fisher Law Enforcement Command. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinas Navy Steps Up Patrols, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 2, 2013. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived at Scribd.com