Forecast Study

SAPS UNIVARIATE SALES
FORECASTING FUNCTIONALITY:
AN EMPIRICAL STUDY
Peter Maurice Catt
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements

for the degree of Doctor of Computing
School of Computing and Information Technology
UNITEC, New Zealand 2007
Supervisors: Dr Robert Barbour, UNITEC

Dr David Robb, The University of Auckland
Wherever this thesis draws on the work of others,

such sources are clearly acknowledged: ______________
Peter M. Catt
ABSTRACT
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The accuracy of sales forecasts is a major determinant of inventory costs and

service level driven revenues. Failure to establish future customer demand without a
reasonable degree of certainty often leads to poor levels of customer service and/or high
levels of the wrong inventory and resulting reductions in company profitability. Enterprise
resource planning (ERP) systems such as SAP are widely adopted and typically contain
sales forecasting functionality. The sales forecasting accuracy of ERP systems can have
a critical impact on business profitability and empirical research into the effectiveness of
ERP offerings should be considered a valuable endeavour. However, commonly
adopted measures of forecast accuracy, such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean
absolute percentage error (MAPE), do not provide explicit costs associated with forecast
errors.
This thesis adopts a quantitative case study methodology to evaluate the nine
forecasting models (2 moving average and 7 exponential smoothing) of SAPs
enterprise resource planning system (SAP ERP). The SAP forecast models are
evaluated against both common statistical measures and commercial measures of
forecast error, using a 24 month and 60 month product sales data set provided by a New
Zealand based importer and retailer of electrical products. The forecast models are a
combination of SAP default smoothing parameters, fitted smoothing parameters,
baseline statistical forecasts, and event management adjusted forecasts resulting in a
total of 38 forecast model combinations. The 38 forecast models are assessed using a
rolling-origin holdout approach and evaluated against mean absolute error (MAE), mean
absolute percentage error (MAPE), revenue-weighted mean absolute percentage error
(RW-MAPE), and two new measures developed by the author; margin-weighted mean
absolute percentage error (MW-MAPE) and cost of forecast error (CFE).
The findings of the case study support the fitting of forecast smoothing
parameters using historical data, the selection of forecasting models based on historical
time series characteristics, i.e. level, trend, and seasonality, and length of available
history. The study also supports the evaluation of sales forecasts with cost of forecast
error (CFE) as a more commercially useful measure than the widely adopted mean
absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) measures. Event
management adjustment of baseline statistical forecasts was not found to be statistically
significant. However, an argument is presented that significance testing should be deemphasised in favour of effect size (forecast error cost reduction in the case of this
study). However, the results should be viewed as case specific and reflect the particular
time series characteristics, costs, and margins of the company in question.
The study concludes with methodological recommendations for practitioners,
ERP vendors, and academics which are supported by the specific case study results and
the reviewed literature.
TRADEMARKS AND SERVICE MARKS

SAP, R/3, SAP, SAP.com, xApps, xApp, SAP NetWeaver and other SAP products and services and the
associated logos are trade or service or registered trade or service marks of SAP AG in Germany and many
other countries in the world.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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Firstly, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Robert

(Bob) Barbour, for his clear direction, personal and academic support, and his
remarkable availability. It has been a privilege to have met and worked with Bob and I
consider him a friend. I am also deeply grateful to Dr. David J. Robb who has provided
such invaluable insight and critique in forming this work. Thank you for taking an interest
in this research and sharing your knowledge of time series forecasting. I also thank Dr.
Donald Joyce for providing me with the opportunity to fulfill my long-term ambition of
doctoral research.
To my fellow doctoral cohorts, Becky Blackshaw and Caroline King, who have
been inspirational, supportive, enthusiastic, and a joy to work with. Special thanks to Ard
Slotboom, SAP consultant, for assisting me with the configuration and data upload for
the SAP forecasting process. Your help was much appreciated.
To my father, Fred, for his enormous interest in my work and its progress and for
introducing me to computing at a very early age. Thank you for removing obstacles to
this work at every opportunity.
Most especially to my lovely children, Alexander and Benjamin, for being such a
wonderful part of my life (ut sementem feceris ita metes). A special thank you to my very
supportive wife, Lianne. I love you all very much.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... 2
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................. 4
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List of Tables ................................................................................................................... 7

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List of Figures ................................................................................................................. 8

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1.0 INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH AIMS ................................................................. 9

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1.1 The Companys Supply Chain ............................................................................... 10

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1.2 Theoretical Basis and Importance of the Study ..................................................... 12

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1.3 Relevance of SAP to the Case Study .................................................................... 13

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1.4 Limitations .............................................................................................................. 15

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1.5 Research Aims....................................................................................................... 16

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1.6 Research Questions .............................................................................................. 17

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2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................ 18

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2.1 Information and Communication Technology enabled Supply Chain Management

..................................................................................................................................... 18
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2.2 Economic Impact of Forecasts............................................................................... 24

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2.3 Forecasting Techniques ........................................................................................ 28

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2.4 Forecast Evaluation ............................................................................................... 44

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2.5 Empirical Forecasting Studies ............................................................................... 50

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2.6 SAP Demand Forecasting Functionality .............................................................. 56

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2.7 SAP Demand Forecasting Research ................................................................... 71

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2.8 Conclusion of Literature Review ............................................................................ 73

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3.0 METHODOLOGY...................................................................................................... 74
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3.1 Margin Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error .............................................. 74

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3.2 Inventory Cost ........................................................................................................ 76

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3.3 Safety Stock Calculation ........................................................................................ 77

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3.4 Cost of Forecast Error............................................................................................ 79

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3.5 Research Questions and Hypotheses ................................................................... 82

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3.6 Research Method................................................................................................... 85

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4.0 DATA COLLECTION ................................................................................................ 88

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4.1 Sampling ................................................................................................................ 90

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4.2 Event Management Adjustment ............................................................................. 96

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5.0 RESULTS ................................................................................................................. 97

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5.1 SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters ............................................ 102

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5.2 Baseline Forecasts versus Event Management Adjusted Forecasts ................... 105
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5.3 Best-fitting Model ................................................................................................. 108

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6.0 ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................. 111

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6.4 Forecast Error Measures ..................................................................................... 124

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7.0 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................... 128

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7.4 Forecast Error Measures ..................................................................................... 139

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7.5 Return on Investment via Improvements in Sales Forecasting............................ 141

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8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH ........... 145

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8.1 Implications of Findings ....................................................................................... 145

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8.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................... 149

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8.3 Contributions to Knowledge ................................................................................. 154

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8.4 Directions for Further Research ........................................................................... 156

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9.0 REFERENCES........................................................................................................ 158

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10. APPENDICES ......................................................................................................... 162

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Appendix A Data Sets ............................................................................................. 162

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Appendix B Sales History Linear Regression and Autocorrelation (ACF) graphs .. 164
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Appendix C Model Fitting Parameters .................................................................... 178

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Appendix D Summary Forecast Error Measures .................................................... 184

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Appendix E Detailed Forecast Error Tables............................................................ 191

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Appendix F Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error .................................................. 228

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LIST OF TABLES
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Table 1. Summary of Forecast Models and Time-Series Characteristics ....................... 36

Table 2. Methods for Detection and Estimation of Trends (Brauner, 1997) .................... 38
Table 3. Focus Forecasting Equations............................................................................ 41
Table 4. Aggregate Mean Absolute Percentage Error Example ..................................... 48
Table 5. Assessment of Forecasting Software (Tashman and Hoover ,2001) ................ 55
Table 6. SAP Forecast Models and Parameters (Adapted from SAP, 2006) .............. 61
Table 7. SAP ERP Forecasting Principles Review ......................................................... 70
Table 8. Margin Weighted MAPE Example ..................................................................... 75
Table 9. Normal Distribution N(0,1)................................................................................. 78
Table 10. Forecast Models and Smoothing Parameters ................................................. 89
Table 11. Case Study Time Series Features (Adapted from Adya et al., 2000) ............. 92
Table 12. 24 Month History SKUs ................................................................................... 93
Table 13. 60 Month History SKUs ................................................................................... 94
Table 14. SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters ...................................... 104
Table 15. Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted 24 Month ........................... 106
Table 16. Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted 60 Month ........................... 107
Table 17. Best-fitting Model - 24 Month ........................................................................ 109
Table 18. Best-fitting Model - 60 Month ........................................................................ 110
Table 19. SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters Matched t-test 24 Month
Models .................................................................................................................... 114
Models .................................................................................................................... 114
Table 21. Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted Matched t-test 24 Month Models
................................................................................................................................ 116
................................................................................................................................ 116
Table 23. Repeated Measures ANOVA for 24 Month Models ...................................... 122
Table 24. Repeated Measures ANOVA for 60 Month Models ...................................... 123
Table 25. Error Measure Correlation (24 Month) .......................................................... 124
Table 26. Error Measure Correlation (60 Month) .......................................................... 125
Table 27. Net Present Value of Forecasting Improvements ......................................... 142
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LIST OF FIGURES
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Figure 1. MRPII System Modules (Vollmann, Berry, & Whybark, 1992) ......................... 20
Figure 2. Functional Domains of Advanced Planning & Scheduling Systems (Kumar,
2001) ........................................................................................................................ 21
Figure 3. Forecast Accuracy and Stakeholder Value (Adapted from SAP, 2006) ......... 24
Figure 4. Overview of Forecasting Techniques............................................................... 29
Figure 5. Example Correlogram ...................................................................................... 37
Figure 6. Information Flow between SOP and other SAP ERP Applications (Adapted
from SAP, 2006) ..................................................................................................... 56
Figure 7. SAP Planning Table (transaction MC94) showing key planning figures ........ 59
Figure 8. SAP Statistics Graphic showing forecast versus actual sales in units ........... 59
Figure 9. SAP Model Identification for Different Historical Patterns (Adapted from SAP,
2006) ........................................................................................................................ 64
Figure 10. SAP Outlier Correction (Adapted from SAP, 2006) .................................... 65
Figure 11. Promotional Event Curve (Adapted from SAP, 2006) .................................. 66
Figure 12. Event Planning Screen (transaction MC64) ................................................... 66
Figure 13. Configuration of Forecast Profiles (transaction MC96) .................................. 68
Figure 14. Forecasting Research Methods ..................................................................... 86
Figure 15. Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves - 24 Month Models ..................... 119
Figure 16. Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves - 60 Month Models ..................... 120
Figure 17. Combined Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves ................................... 120
Figure 18. Correlation of Ranked Measures (24 Month) ............................................... 125
Figure 19. Correlation of Ranked Measures (60 Month) ............................................... 126
Figure 20. Mean Absolute Error versus Cost of Forecast Error .................................... 126
Figure 21. Discounted Cash Flow Chart ....................................................................... 142
Figure 22. Time Series Plot of SKU-60-004 .................................................................. 147
Figure 23. Seasonal Plot of SKU-60-004 ...................................................................... 147
Figure 24. SAP Model Identification for Different Historical Patterns (Adapted from
SAP, 2006)............................................................................................................ 151
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The following software was used in the data analysis and write up of this thesis:
SAP ERP Enterprise Core Component (ECC) 5.0, Microsoft Excel 2003, Microsoft
Word 2003, Microsoft Visio 2003, EndNote 7.0.
1.0 INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH AIMS

4B
_____________________________________________________________________
Although journals are the primary means for reporting scientific advances
in forecasting, software programs are the critical paths for implementation
(Tashman & Hoover, 2001, p. 652)
This study evaluates the sales forecasting models of SAPs enterprise resource
planning system (SAP ERP) using a case study methodology, details of which are
explained in the following sections.
The historical sales data set used to assess the SAP forecasting models in this
case study was obtained from a privately owned, medium sized electrical products retaildistribution company (referred to as the company). It operates 22 stores throughout
New Zealand, employing 140 staff, with annual sales revenue of approximately NZ$24
million. The company imports the majority of its products from China via sea freight.
Although profitable, the company faces growing competition from other specialist
retailers and big box hardware stores.
In April 2003 the company commenced implementation of SAPs All-in-One*
enterprise resource planning system, with the primary aim of achieving higher stockturns and increased availability of core products. The inventory management
improvements would be achieved via SAPs material requirements planning (MRP)
functionality. In order to realise the benefits of MRP it is necessary to accurately forecast
demand, a subject area that is explored in the subsequent literature review.
* SAP All-in-One is a templated version of SAPs SAP Enterprise Resource Planning System Core
Component (ECC), formerly known as R/3, developed for small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs). The
aim of the system is to provide a preconfigured ERP solution that is tailored to SMEs providing a less
complex and less costly implementation. For the purpose of both clarity and relevance I will refer to the
system as SAP ERP throughout this document.
This Chapter provides an executive summary of the research. A selective

examination of the literary context of the research subsequently details knowledge in the
field.
1.1 The Companys Supply Chain

14B
The companys supply chain network consists of 22 retail stores located

throughout New Zealand, which are serviced by a central distribution centre located in
Auckland. Replenishment of product to the stores from the distribution centre is achieved
via re-order points for each product, with inventory levels against the re-order points
reviewed daily by the SAP MRP module. Store stock found to be below the set re-order
point results in the creation of a minimum stock transport order which generates a
delivery document to enable picking and despatch from the central distribution centre.
The store re-order points are frequently set at levels higher than true customer demand
(within the distribution centre replenishment lead-time) to accommodate visual
merchandising requirements, i.e. the requirement for stock to be attractively presented in
store. The company sources 66% of its product from China, 32% from New Zealand,
and 2% from Italy. The Chinese product is sourced from five major suppliers, including
one agent that deals with in excess of 20 manufacturing plants. The mean delivery leadtime from placement of orders with Chinese suppliers is 77 days.
Overseas purchasing requirements for the distribution centre are determined by
producing a statistical forecast based on the aggregate sales history of all 22 retail
stores. Net product requirements are then calculated as follows: uncommitted stock on
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hand + planned receipts (purchase orders) requirements (forecast sales) over the
entire three month planning horizon, being the companys procurement lead-time from
China and Italy which includes manufacturing and sea freight. Details of the companys
sales and operations planning process are described next.
1.1.1 Sales and Operations Planning Process

Establishing an accurate product sales forecast is critical to the companys
profitability. Understating future demand leads directly to lost sales. Corsten and Gruens
(2004) study of more than 600 retailers revealed that when a precise product demanded
by the customer is not available fewer than half on average will make a substitute
purchase. Conversely, overstating future demand leads to overstocking of products with
the associated tying up of capital, additional warehousing requirements, and ultimately
the carrying of obsolete items that may require sale at heavily discounted prices.
In order to maximize long-term company profitability through the effective
balancing of product supply and demand, the company operates a monthly Sales and
Operations Planning (SOP) process. The details of the companys SOP process are
commercially sensitive, however it is important to introduce the key elements in order to
appreciate the impact of product sales forecasting on the business. The monthly SOP
process commences with statistical sales forecasting performed by the SAP system.
Forecasts are then judgmentally adjusted for new products, store openings and
promotions. Following sign-off of the procurement plan by the company directors, in the
monthly SOP meeting, the SAP generated purchase requisitions are converted to
purchase orders and emailed to the overseas suppliers. The process is constrained by
supplier lead-time and therefore is concerned with supply and demand a full three
months ahead. The critical protection period consists of an average lead-time of 77 days
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plus the monthly review period of 30 days (107 days total). It should be noted that the
review period of one month is arbitrary.
1.2 Theoretical Basis and Importance of the Study

15B
The accuracy of sales forecasting is a major determinant of inventory costs,

service levels, scheduling and staffing efficiency, and many other measures of
operational performance (T. Lee, Cooper, & Adam, 1993). Product sales forecasting is
also a critical starting point for mobilising a companys resources, be they labour, capital,
or equipment (Sengupta & Turnball, 1996). Once a realistic demand distribution for a
product is established then customer service levels and inventory levels can be
determined. Failure to establish future customer demand without a reasonable degree of
certainty often leads to poor levels of customer service and/or high levels of the wrong
inventory. According to Cecere (2005) "Forecast accuracy is the most important and
advantageous supply chain metric. According to our benchmarking research, a one-point
improvement in demand forecast accuracy could yield a two-point improvement in
perfect order performance. Organizations with better forecasts gain competitive
advantage with a 35% shorter cash-to-cash cycle time."
Theoretical contributions to univariate forecasting frequently appear in a number of
established
disciplines,
namely;
operations
research,
operations
management,
management science, managerial economics, and the emerging discipline of supply

chain management (defined in the literature review) all of which apply quantitative
techniques to business problems in an effort to improve decision-making. However,
based on a five year review of operations management articles, Wacker (1998) states
that empirical case studies are underrepresented in the literature. Wacker concludes that
there is a lack of studying causality in the empirical world which hinders the
development of verified relationships that are assumed to be true, i.e. a lack of theory
12
development and/or validation through empirical data. However, support for empirical
forecasting research is relatively common in the forecasting literature and is epitomised
by the three M (Makridakis) forecasting competitions (Makridakis et al., 1982;
Makridakis et al., 1993; Makridakis & Hibon, 2000). One of the primary motivations for
conducting empirical forecasting research is the requirement for organisations to identify
and apply accurate, cost effective forecasting methods (Armstrong, 1997; Makridakis,
1993b). This empirical case study is also motivated by the need to identify and apply an
accurate, cost effective forecasting method for informing business decision making in an
ERP environment. In the context of ERP sales forecasting it has been reported that
ERP adopters admit to not fully utilising their forecasting systems (Vega, 2001).
The research approach detailed in the subsequent sections can serve as a
template for businesses wishing to evaluate their ERP based forecasting systems and
potentially gaining higher levels of customer service at a reduced inventory holding cost.
1.3 Relevance of SAP to the Case Study

16B
Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems have seen widespread adoption in

business largely due to what OLeary (2002) says is the appeal of integrating disparate
functions. SAP (Systeme, Anwendungen, Produkte in der Datenverarbeitung, English
translation - Systems, Applications and Products in Data Processing) was founded in
1972 by five former IBM employees. Headquartered in Walldorf, Germany, the
company currently has 39,300 employees, 38,000 customers, and 79,800 worldwide
installations. In 2006, SAPs worldwide enterprise application vendor share was 24%
(ORACLE 9%, Microsoft 5.2, rest of market 61.8%). Revenue in 2006 was 9.4 billion
(SAP, 2007).
For the purpose of providing a flavour of SAPs offering, the primary product
portfolio is listed below (see http://www.sap.com for further information).
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SAP for Industry: (Industry specific solutions, i.e. tailored ERP systems)
SAP Business Suite: (SAP CRM (Customer Relationship Management), SAP
ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning Core Component), SAP PLM (Product
Lifecycle Management), SAP SCM (Supply Chain Management), SAP SRM
(Supplier Relationship Management))
SAP Solutions for Midsize and Small Businesses: (SAP All-in-One, SAP
Business Suite, SAP Business One)
SAP NetWeaver: (SAP Enterprise Portal, SAP Master Data Management,
SAP Composite Application Framework, SAP Business Intelligence, SAP Mobile
Infrastructure, SAP Exchange Infrastructure, SAP Web Application Server)
SAP has a dominant customer base within Global 500 companies (SAP, 2007) and to
facilitate further growth has an active go-to-market strategy of obtaining SME market
share (SAP, 2005). Released in 2002, SAP All-in-One had a customer base of 4,600
by the end of 2003.
The widespread use of SAP provides fertile ground for empirical research to
support the 12 million worldwide users of SAP products. The application of relevant
prior research to practical problems is clearly an important activity to assist SAP
practitioners, with the lack of empirical research in the context of SAP software
identified in the literature review in Chapter 3.
The forecasting models used by SAP are also in common use in other systems.
The results of the case study are not limited to SAP practitioners and methodology
should generalise to similar business tools.
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1.4 Limitations
17B
1. The case study is limited to products that are imported by the company. A
distinguishing feature of these products is delivery lead-times of up to three
months due to overseas manufacture and subsequent shipping.
2. Where possible all data processing and analysis is conducted using SAP
functionality. The rationale for this limitation was to ensure that other SAP
practitioners could replicate or apply the results of the case study in their
particular environments, without the need to utilise additional statistical packages
(e.g. SPSS, Minitab, SAS). However, the determination of optimized smoothing
parameters, along with statistical analysis of the results, was performed using the
widely available Microsoft Excel.
3. All forecasting takes a bottom up approach, i.e. forecasting at stock keeping
unit (SKU) level, being the convention adopted in the major forecasting studies
such as the M-Series (Makridakis & Hibon, 2000). For an evaluation of bottom
up versus top down forecasting approaches see Fliedner (2001).
Having introduced the setting and limitations of the case study the next Chapter will
detail the research aims, working hypotheses, and questions.
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1.5 Research Aims

18B
The primary aim of the case study is to identify and evaluate the SAP sales forecasting
method that provides the best-fit for the companys sales forecasting requirements,
within the constraints of the companys ERP system. SAPs ERP forecasting
functionality includes nine time series forecast models as well as event management
(causal forecast adjustment). The forecast serves to provide planned independent
requirements (forecast sales) for the SAP-based material requirements planning
process of the company. Improved forecasting accuracy is reported as leading to
increased levels of customer service and reduced inventory costs (Enns, 2002; Gardner,
1990; Tyagi, 2002). The fundamental choices that the company has to make in order to
utilise the SAP forecasting functionality are: choice of forecasting strategy (forecast
model), selection of smoothing parameters (or use of the SAP default parameters), and
adjustment of baseline statistical forecasts for known events (e.g. sales promotions).
The working hypotheses are:
Based on tests of statistical significance; (1) Fitted forecast smoothing parameters will
outperform the SAP default smoothing parameters, (2) event management adjusted
forecasts will outperform baseline statistical forecasts, (3) one of the 38 forecasting
model/parameter combinations will produce a statistically significantly more accurate
(better fit) forecast across all products, and (4) that SAPs forecast error measures do
not reflect the commercial impact of forecast errors.
Further research aims are to evaluate the SAP ERP forecasting functionality in relation
to the literature and to provide methodological recommendations for practitioners to help
better leverage their ERP demand forecasting packages.
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1.6 Research Questions

19B
The following are the specific research questions that correspond to the previous
hypotheses:
1. Do the default SAP forecast smoothing/weighting parameters provide the Bestfit forecast for the company and is any performance differential statistically
significant? (Matched t-test applied to MAE and CFE)
2. Does the combination of event management (causal factors) with time series
techniques provide a Better Fit than the time series techniques alone and is any
performance differential statistically significant? (Matched t-test applied to MAE
and CFE)
3. Which of the nine available SAP time series (univariate) forecasting models
provides the Best-fit for the company and is any performance differential
statistically significant? (repeated measures ANOVA applied to MAE and CFE)
4. Are the forecast error measures utilised by SAP indicative of the commercial
impact of the resulting forecast errors? (Coefficient of determination (r2) applied
to ranked forecast error measures)
Having presented the research aims, working hypotheses, and questions, the next
Chapter will review the relevant literature.
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2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

5B
_____________________________________________________________________
The review of the literature introduces the role of information and communication
technologies (ICT) in supply chain management and then identifies the importance of
sales forecasting as the primary input into supply chain management activities.
A review of forecasting techniques and methods relevant to SAPs offering then
follows, including a critique of previous forecasting studies. The review of the literature
concludes with a critique of relevant SAP literature.
2.1 Information and Communication Technology enabled Supply Chain Management

20B
The application of computing to commercial supply chain management (SCM)

problems first appeared in the 1950s with use of mainframe systems to automatically
calculate re-order points for inventory items. In 1961 Joseph Orlicky, an IBM engineer,
successfully applied material requirements planning (MRP) within J.I Case Company, a
farm machinery manufacturer. MRP is defined by the American Production and Inventory
Control Society (APICS, 2002) as:
A set of techniques that uses bill of material data, inventory data, and the master
production schedule to calculate requirements for materials. It makes
recommendations to release replenishment orders for materials. Further,
because it is time phased, it makes recommendations to reschedule open orders
when due dates and need dates are not in phase. Time-phased MRP begins with
the items listed on the MPS (Master Production Schedule) and determines (1) the
quantity of all components and materials required to fabricate those items and (2)
the date that the components and material are required. Time-phased MRP is
18
accomplished by exploding the bill of materials, adjusting for inventory quantities

on hand or on order, and offsetting the net requirements by the appropriate lead
times (p. 70).
By 1971 approximately 150 companies were using MRP systems, with the 1970s
seeing widespread adoption of MRP systems by manufacturing companies (Plossl,
1994). By the mid nineties in excess of 60,000 MRP implementations were in world-wide
use (AMR, 1995). Reported benefits of MRP include reductions in stock levels (work in
progress and finished goods) and higher delivery date performance (Braglia & Petroni,
1999). Reported limitations include lack of capacity requirements planning, problems
with bill of material accuracy and implementation time, lack of options for influencing the
system behaviour with respect to strategic and operational goals, internal focus, thus
addressing only one node of the supply chain, limited decision support capabilities,
scheduling decisions based on a priori specified lead-times, making insufficient use of
information about the current situation on the shop floor, insufficient consideration of
potential bottlenecks, and inadequate plant data collection (Knolmayer, Mertens, &
Zeier, 2002). The major limitation of MRP systems concerning capacity planning was
addressed during the 1980s with the development of Manufacturing Resource Planning
(MRPII) systems. APICS (2002) define Manufacturing Resource Planning as:
A method for the effective planning of all resources of a manufacturing company.

Ideally, it addresses operational planning in units, financial planning in dollars,
and has a simulation capability to answer what-if questions. It is made up of a
variety of processes, each linked together: business planning, production
planning (sales and operations planning), master production scheduling, material
requirements planning, capacity requirements planning, and the execution
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support systems for capacity and material (shop floor control). Output from these
systems is integrated with financial reports such as the business plan, purchase
commitment report, shipping budget, and inventory projections in dollars.
Manufacturing resource planning is a direct outgrowth and extension of MRP (p.
68).
The relationships between the various modules contained in an MRPII system

are shown in Figure 1.
X
Figure 1. MRPII System Modules (Vollmann, Berry, & Whybark, 1992)
Enterprise resource planning systems (ERP) evolved directly from manufacturing

resource planning (MRPII), with the term ERP being coined in the early nineties.
However, apart from industry standard MRPII functionality, the major ERP offerings are
limited in their ability to plan resources as suggested by Davenport and Brooks (2004)
who state that early ERP systems were concerned with the integration and execution of
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internal business functions, not the planning of wider supply chain activities. As a result
of the planning limitations of traditional ERP systems, supply chain management
systems grew in popularity from the mid-nineties with vendors such as i2 Technologies,
Manugistics, and Red Pepper (later acquired by Peoplesoft) offering specialist SCM
solutions. The last five years has seen sophisticated advanced planning and scheduling
(APS) systems offered by traditional ERP vendors including SAP, ORACLE, and
Peoplesoft (acquired by ORACLE). In a study of leading ERP system adopters,
Davenport, Harris, and Cantrell (2002) found that supply chain initiatives were cited in
executive interviews more than any other application domain.
Kumar (2001) provides a framework (Figure 2) for supply chain activities that are
X
supported by current ERP systems and their recently incorporated advanced planning
and scheduling systems. The framework shows the specific supply chain activity, e.g.
make or sell, the corresponding ICT enabled process, e.g. production scheduling, along
with the organisational level of such processes, i.e. operational, tactical, or strategic.
STRATEGIC
YEARS
PLAN
BUY
MAKE
MOVE
SELL
NETWORK DESIGN / STRATEGIC PLANNING
DEMAND
PLANNING
MANUFACTURING PLANNING
DEPLOYMENT
WEEKS
TACTICAL
MONTHS
SUPPLY PLANNING
DAYS
OPERATIONAL
CAPABLE
TO PROMISE
PRODUCTION SCHEDULING
TRANSPORT
PLANNING
AVAILABLE
TO PROMISE
Figure 2. Functional Domains of Advanced Planning & Scheduling Systems

(Kumar, 2001)
Kumar identifies demand planning as a tactical process concerned with the sales
function. Although not made explicit in Kumars framework, demand planning is the
21
fundamental starting point for mobilising a firms resources. Demand planning is, of
course, inherently difficult, as it is deals with uncertainty, i.e. what the future holds. In
contrast, supply planning is generally a straightforward resource allocation problem,
albeit often subject to multiple constraints and trade-offs that lend themselves to
optimisation or heuristic techniques, i.e. linear programming (Render & Stair, 1997) or
genetic algorithms (Knolmayer et al., 2002).
2.1.1 ICT Enabled Supply Chain Management and Demand Forecasting

The APICS (2002) definition of supply chain management (SCM) includes
synchronising of supply with demand, the basis of such synchronization being the
determination of customer demand (firm orders and/or forecast requirements) and the
review of demand against available capacity (machinery, labour, cash, etc.).
Determination of demand in make-to-stock environments (i.e. those that require a leadtime greater than customer requirements, such as retail settings where customers
expect to be able to take immediate possession of goods) requires demand forecasting.
Short
to
medium
term
manufacturing/procurement
demand
planning
forecasting
and
control
is
systems.
primary
Even
input
to
make-to-order
environments usually require demand forecasting for raw materials, parts, or subassemblies, so that end customer requirements for finished goods can be provided in a
timely manner.
In summary, ICT enabled SCM first appeared in the 1950s with the calculation of
simple reorder points. In the 1960s MRP was developed and saw significant growth
through the 1970s, later being extended in the 1980s to include capacity planning and
financial management functionality and termed MRPII. The 1990s saw further advances
with the full extension of MRPII into business-wide functionality (sales and distribution,
finance and accounting, materials management, production planning, human resource
22
management, quality management, asset management, and plant maintenance) to form

ERP. The late 1990s through to the present have seen ERP systems augmented with
advanced planning and scheduling (APS) systems.
Irrespective of the SCM model or technology (MRP, MRPII, ERP, or APS),
demand forecasting is a critical requirement for mobilising a companys resources. This
observation is clearly stated by Vollmann et al. (1992) Providing adequate inventory to
meet customers needs throughout the distribution system and to maintain desired
customer service levels requires detailed forecasts. The economic impact of forecasting
is the subject explored in the next section.
23
2.2 Economic Impact of Forecasts

21B
Few C-Level executives care about forecasting accuracy. What they care about is the
impact of improved forecasting on shareholder value Mentzer (1999)
Improved forecast accuracy plays a pivotal role in increasing shareholder value

(Mentzer & Moon, 2005). The relationship of forecast accuracy to shareholder value is
shown in Figure 3, which is an elaboration of Mentzer and Moons (2005, p. 68) Impact
X
of Forecasting Improvements on Shareholder Value. However, the majority of forecast

error measures are not representative of financial impact, the one identified exception
being Mentzer and Moons aggregate MAPE.
Figure 3. Forecast Accuracy and Stakeholder Value (Adapted from SAP, 2006)
24
A number of authors have highlighted the need to assess the economic

consequences of forecast error. Fildes and Beard (1992), state Ideally a forecasting
method should be chosen in order to minimize unnecessary costs such as stock
holding. Flores, Olson and Pearce (1993) state the statistical criteria may not be the
most suitable because statistical measures of forecast accuracy are not designed to
capture the economic implications associated with managing an inventory system.
Roberts and Whybark (1974) consider forecast cost implications as probably the most
essential measure of forecast model performance. Gardner (1990) applies inventory
investment and customer service trade off curves to determine forecast model
performance, claiming that traditional forecast accuracy measures such as MAPE and
MSE do not provide an estimate of investment and customer service levels. Lee, Cooper
and Adam (1993) employ total cost as a much more relevant error measure compared
with bias, MAD, and MSE.
To assess the economic impact of forecast accuracy it is necessary to at least
determine the costs of forecast error in terms of both inventory costs and the costs of
poor service (Flores et al., 1993). However, the impact of improved forecasting can
extend throughout the value chain and have major consequences on production,
procurement, transportation/distribution, storage, and marketing costs. Conversely, the
forecasting activity itself incurs costs associated with software, training, recognition of
performance, and direct personnel expenses (Mentzer, 1999).
The nature of attempting to forecast sales demand is that forecasts will invariably
contain a degree of error. In the context of sales forecasting there is a vital need to
mitigate forecast error to maintain the desired level of customer service while minimizing
the costs associated with excess inventory. This balance is achieved using safety stock.
Safety stock is defined by APICS (2002) as a quantity of stock planned to be in
inventory to protect against fluctuations in demand or supply. A more involved and
25
arguably more useful definition is provided by Silver, Pyke and Peterson (1998): Safety
stock is the amount of inventory kept on hand, on the average, to allow for the
uncertainty of demand and the uncertainty of supply in the short run. Safety stock is not
needed when the future rate of demand and the length of time it takes to get complete
delivery of an order are known with certainty. The level of safety stock is controllable in
the sense that this investment is directly related to the desired level of customer service
(that is, how often customer demand is met from stock).
The balancing of service level and required inventory has been referred to as the
sweet spot and can result in dramatic bottom line improvements (Smart, 2004).
2.2.1 Customer Service Level

The importance of safety stock for maintaining customer service is highlighted by
Lowsons (2002, p. 198) concept of shadow demand where customers make decisions
regarding unavailable items and such decisions are remarkably difficult for the supplying
business to quantify. Examples include backorder and accept a late delivery, substitute
the product, or leave the purchase situation. Lowsons estimates of outcomes equate to
the retailer losing a full 25% of sales in a stock-out situation. Corsten and Gruens
(2004) subsequent article Stock-Outs Cause Walkouts surveys more than 71,000
consumers worldwide and conclude that in retail settings 31% of customers will leave the
store to buy an item at another store and 9% do not make a purchase at all. These
findings equate to a 40% loss in purchase to the particular retailer if a desired item is
unavailable. The study also shows that world-wide stock out rates sit at approximately
8%.
The longer-term effects of stock-out situations are difficult to quantify but it would
be reasonable to assume that customer loyalty is negatively impacted and the likelihood
of repeat business diminished. Considering the work of Lowson (2002), and Corsten
26
and Gruen (2004) the importance of maintaining stock availability is clear. However, how
does one define stock availability for managerial purposes? Silver, Pyke and Peterson
(1998, p. 245) define three forms of availability as follows:
P1: Specified probability of no stock-out per replenishment cycle Cycle Service Level.
P2: Specified fraction of demand to be satisfied routinely from the shelf Fill Rate.
P3: Specified fraction of time during which net stock is positive Ready Rate.
In summary, although the commonly employed measures of forecast accuracy,

e.g. MAE, MAPE, serve an important purpose it is highly desirable to also determine the
economic impact of different forecast methods so as to ensure that organisational
objectives of sales forecasting will actually be achieved.
27
2.3 Forecasting Techniques

2B
This section contains a review of reported forecasting techniques relevant to

SAPs offering, including parameter selection techniques, model identification and
selection, and causal adjustment of statistical forecasts. The appropriate selection of
forecasting methods can lead to major improvements in forecasting accuracy (Fildes &
Beard, 1992).
2.3.1
Forecasting Techniques Overview

Sales forecasting techniques can be broadly classified as qualitative or
quantitative (see Figure 4). Qualitative approaches assume that certain people, e.g.
X
management, experts, or customers, can determine what future demand will be.
Qualitative techniques can range from informal, i.e. intuition, to quite structured
approaches such as Delphi, where a panel of domain experts are iteratively consulted
until a consensus forecast is obtained (Makridakis, Wheelwright, & Hyndman, 1998, p.
595). Quantitative methods consist of time series (observations taken at regular
intervals) and causal techniques. Time series techniques assume that historical demand
is the best determinant of future demand and essentially seek to identify underlying
patterns in the historical data and extrapolate these to form a forecast (Armstrong, 2001,
p. 215). Causal techniques attempt to identify the factor(s) that determine demand, e.g.
promotional activity, pricing, interest rates, market share, and use such factors as the
basis of a model to forecast demand (Armstrong, 2001, p. 770). Sophisticated causal
techniques are referred to as econometric models.
28
Figure 4. Overview of Forecasting Techniques
2.3.2
Forecasting Models
SAPs ERP provides both time series and event management (promotion
planning) techniques, although forecast values can be obtained through judgmental

approaches, via manual data entry of forecast values into the relevant planning table.
SAPs ERP time series functionality consists of two moving average methods and
seven exponential smoothing methods. The time series techniques adopted by SAP are
described and critiqued in this section. Other time series techniques are widely cited in
the literature, e.g. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (Box, Jenkins, &
Reinsel, 1994), and neural network approaches (Alon, Qi, & Sadowski, 2001; Ansuj,
Camargo, Radharamanan, & Petry, 1996; Kuo, Wu, & Wang, 2002). However, given the
focus on SAP functionality, other techniques are considered outside of the scope of this
literature review. It should also be noted that the description of the time series methods
are in the context of sales forecasting, however the reviewed forecasting methods are
29
not limited to the forecasting of sales, but can also be applied to other time series, e.g.
recreational visitation numbers (R. J. Chen, Bloomfield, & Fu, 2003) or hospital patient
admissions (Soucy et al., 2005).
Notation: The following standard notation is used throughout this review*:
Yt = Actual sales value in period t

Ft = Forecast sales value in period t conducted when period t-1
et = Error (Yt Ft ) in period t
m = Periods ahead
Smoothing Parameters:
Alpha for the smoothing of level of historical sales
Beta for the smoothing of trend of historical sales
Gamma for the smoothing of seasonality of historical sales
* This notation differs from that used by SAP in their literature in favour of the more
common notation used by Makridakis, Wheelwright, and Hyndman (1998).
Moving Average Methods

The two moving average methods calculate the mean of a time series over a
chosen number of observations and use this as the sales forecast. Moving average
methods represent one of the simplest forms of time series methods and are simple to
understand and calculate, however they do not account for trend and/or seasonality in
the time series.
30
Simple moving average. The simple moving average applies an equal weighting,
which sum to 1, over the prescribed historical observations of sales. It is suitable for
constant pattern data where the historical sales level is constant (Pegels, 1969).
Ft +1 =
Yt + Yt1 + Yt2 + ...+ Ytn +1

n
(1)
Weighted Moving Average. The weighted moving average applies a weighting,

which sum to 1, to each historical observation of sales that enables a higher weighting
on more recent observations. The advantage of the weighting is that the model responds
more quickly to changes in level than the simple moving average if the weights are
increasing in time (Makridakis et al., 1998).
Ft +1 = Wt (Yt ) + Wt 1 (Yt 1 ) + ... + Wt n +1 (Yt n +1 )
(2)
where Wt = weighting factor
Note: The simple moving average is a special case of the weighted moving average.
Exponential Smoothing Methods

Exponential smoothing techniques have seen widespread adoption in industry,
particularly in applications requiring regular sales forecasting of a large number of
products (Box et al., 1994; Brown & Meyer, 1961; Fildes & Beard, 1992, Holt, 2004;
Snyder, Koehler, & Ord, 2002; Tersine & Green, 1979; Winters, 1960).
31
The favourable characteristics of exponential smoothing are: declining weight is

put on older data, extremely easy to compute, relative ease of use, ability to change
smoothing parameters, and minimal data are required. The limitations of such methods
include no consideration of: leading indicators, market conditions, econometric trends, or
other external influences. Exponential smoothing seems better suited to short term
forecasting as it tends to lag genuine changes in demand, e.g. turning points (Holt, 2004;
Tersine & Green, 1979).
Single exponential smoothing (SES). The single exponential smoothing model is

appropriate for constant pattern data, as a lag will occur if a trend in sales is present.
The model places an exponentially decreasing emphasis on older data, essentially a
weighted moving average (Makridakis et al., 1998).
Ft +1 = Yt + (1 )Ft
(3)
Adaptive Response Rate Single Exponential Smoothing (ARRSES). The

ARRSES model (shown in equation 4) adapts the smoothing factor for each period
through the use of a tracking signal. The tracking signal determines the degree of error
between the last sales forecast and the actual sales value and adjusts the smoothing
parameter accordingly. A number of empirical studies have raised doubts regarding the
effectiveness of adaptive smoothing parameters, favouring constant parameters. The
concerns regarding ARRSES relate to the over-sensitivity of the model to changes in
level. (See Gardner (1985), Gardner and Dannenbring (1980), Makridakis and Hibon
(1979), and Makridakis et al., (1982)). However, Mentzer and Gomes (1994) present an
adaptive variant known as adaptive extended exponential smoothing methodology
(AEES) which automatically adapts all of the Winters parameters and was shown to be
32
successful using the M-Competition data set. Taylor (2004) also presents a new variant
of ARRSES known as smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) that is reportedly
less sensitive than traditional ARRSES to sudden demand shifts, although Taylors
STES or Mentzers AEES is not utilised by SAP.
Ft +1 = t Yt + (1 t ) Ft
where t =
(4)
At
Mt
At = Et + (1 ) At 1
M t = Et + (1 ) M t 1
Et = Yt Ft
Browns One Parameter Linear Method. Browns method is appropriate for data
exhibiting trend (Gardner, 1985). The method performs an initial smoothing, equivalent
to single exponential smoothing, and then performs a second smoothing which accounts
for the trend in sales. Browns method only requires that the alpha (level) parameter be
determined.
(1)
Ft(1)
+1 = Yt + (1 )Ft
Single smoothing
(2)
(1)
Ft(2)
+1 = Ft +1 + (1 )Ft
Double smoothing
33
(5)
Holts Two-Parameter Linear Method. Holts method considers trend in the time
series by calculating an estimate of level of historical sales and an estimate of trend in
historical sales. The two estimates are then combined to form the forecast value. Holts
method requires that both alpha (level) and beta (trend) parameters be determined. The
empirical evidence favours Holts two-parameter method over Browns one parameter
method due to the additional flexibility of the two parameters, which allows for individual
smoothing of both level and trend. (See Gardner (1985), Gardner and Dannenbring
(1980), Makridakis and Hibon (1979), and Makridakis et al., (1982)).
Ft +m = Lt + bt m
(6)
where Lt = Yt + (1 )( Lt 1 + bt 1 )
Level
bt = ( Lt Lt 1 ) + (1 )bt 1
Trend
Holt-Winters Method (Multiplicative Seasonality). The Holt-Winters multiplicative

method is an extension of Holts linear trend that incorporates seasonality of historical
sales. The method uses a third smoothing equation, the gamma parameter, that
produces a multiplicative seasonal index, i.e. forecast seasonality increases along with
increases in trend (Makridakis et al., 1998).
Ft + m = ( Lt + bt m) S t s + m
where Lt =
Yt
+ (1 )(Lt 1 + bt 1 )
S t s
bt = (Lt Lt1 ) + (1 )bt1
(7)
Level
Trend
34
St =
Yt
+ (1 ) S t s
Lt
Seasonal
Holt-Winters Method (Additive Seasonality). The additive method differs from the
multiplicative method in that seasonality remains constant irrespective of changes in
historical sales trend (Makridakis et al., 1998).
Ft + m = Lt + bt m + S t s + m
(8)
where Lt = (Yt Sts ) + (1 )(Lt1 + bt1 ) Level
bt = ( Lt Lt 1 ) + (1 )bt 1
Trend
S t = (Yt Lt ) + (1 ) S t s
Seasonal
2.3.3 Pegels Classification

Pegels (1969) proposed a graphical framework to identify the most appropriate of
nine exponential smoothing models. Pegels framework depicts nine forms of historical
data pattern, based on the combination of historical trend and seasonality. The specific
combinations are: no trend and no seasonality, no trend and additive seasonality, no
trend and multiplicative seasonality, additive trend and no seasonality, additive trend and
additive seasonality, additive trend and multiplicative seasonality, multiplicative trend and
no seasonality, multiplicative trend and additive seasonality, and finally multiplicative
trend and multiplicative seasonality. The value of Pegels classification is that exhaustive
model selection testing can be bypassed and the most appropriate method selected
based on the users understanding of the underlying pattern of historical sales, typically
35
through a visual inspection of the charted times series. The previously described
univariate forecast models along with their appropriate time series characteristics are
summarised in Table 1.
NON-SEASONAL
SEASONAL
Simple moving average

Weighted Moving Average
Single exponential smoothing (SES)
CONSTANT
Adaptive Response Rate Single Exponential
Smoothing (ARRSES)
Browns One Parameter Linear Method
Holt-Winters Method (Additive Seasonality)
Holts Two-Parameter Linear Method
Holt-Winters Method (Multiplicative Seasonality)
TREND
Table 1. Summary of Forecast Models and Time-Series Characteristics
Gardner (1985) extended Pegels classification to include damped trends,

thereby providing three more exponential smoothing methods.
In addition to visual methods (time series charts), determination of the
seasonality and /or trend component of a time series is covered in the next section.
2.3.4 Determining Underlying Patterns of a Time Series

Autocorrelation is the correlation between observations of a univariate time series
separated by k time units (lags), e.g. months. Autocorrelation helps identify seasonality
and cycles in a time series (Makridakis et al., 1998). The formula for autocorrelation is
shown below:
n
rk =
(Y Y )(Y
t = k +1
t k
Y)
(9)
(Y Y )
t =1
36
where
rk = autocorrelation at lag k .
The plot of the autocorrelation function or ACF is known as a correlogram. An example

correlogram is shown in
X
Figure 5.
X
Autocorrelogram (SKU-24-007)
1
0.8
0.6
Autocorrelation
0.4
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
Lag
Figure 5. Example Correlogram

Bars extending beyond the upper or lower limit correspond to statistically significant
autocorrelations. In the example shown in Figure 5 a small degree of autocorrelation is
X
apparent for lag 2.
Detection and Estimation of Trends

Like cycles/seasonality, the detection and estimation of trend plays an important
role in the selection of appropriate forecasting models. Brauner (1997) presents the
advantages and disadvantages of trend detection and estimation methods in Table 2
X
below.
37
58B
Test
Procedure
Graphical
Methods
Methods for Detection and Estimation of Trends.

Applicability
Notes
Reference(s)
Visual estimate of
trend
presence/absence
Provides an
estimate of slope,
confidence
interval, and
quantifies
goodness of fit
Test for trends in
long term,
regularly spaced
data
Yes/No test for
existence slope
No quantifiable results
(Makridakis
et al., 1998)
Allows quantified estimate of

influence of multiple independent
variables
Does not handle missing data
May be greatly affected by outliers
and cyclic data
Requires large data set
Requires constant temporal
spacing of data sets
(Makridakis
et al., 1998)
Non-parametric test
Allows missing data
Not affected by gross data errors
and outliers
(Mann, 1945)
(Kendall,
1938)
Sen's Method
Estimates value
and confidence
interval for slope
(Sen, 1968)
(Theil, 1950)
Dickey-Fuller
test
A unit-root test
which determines
whether a time
series is
stationary
Allows missing data

Makes no assumptions on
distribution of data
Not affected by gross data errors
and outliers
The evidence on the use of unitroot tests is considered mixed.
Linear
Regression
Box-Jenkins
Model
Mann-Kendall
(Box et al.,
1994)
Armstrong
(2001)
Table 2. Methods for Detection and Estimation of Trends (Brauner, 1997)
In summary, the review of forecasting models describes the particular models

that are suited to specific patterns of sales demand and should be selected and applied
based on this principle. Having decided on an appropriate forecasting model there is a
need to estimate appropriate smoothing parameters (Fildes & Beard, 1992), the subject
of the next section.
38
2.3.5
Exponential Smoothing Parameter Selection

Exponential smoothing methods require that smoothing parameters be selected
(Makridakis et al., 1998), the exception being adaptive methods, e.g. Adaptive Response
Rate Single Exponential Smoothing (ARRSES) which automatically adapt the smoothing
factor each period through the use of a tracking signal.
The selection of smoothing parameters is commonly performed by fitting the
method to historical data to minimise error measures such as mean squared error (MSE)
or mean absolute error (MAE). However, Gardner (1985) refers to some studies that
have fitted smoothing parameters to minimise inventory cost. Three approaches to fitting
were tested by Fildes, Hibon, Makridakis and Meade (1998); (1) arbitrary, (2) optimise
once, (3) optimise based on the available history each time a forecast is made (a rolling
origin approach). Fildes et al. (1998) study found the best option to be optimising based
for each successive horizon, i.e. rolling origin fitting. However, the major MAPE gains
were achieved with moving from an arbitrary value to either optimise once or optimise
each origin. Rasmussen (2004) recommends the use of a fitting period followed by an
evaluation using holdout data to ensure that the model and parameters do provide an
acceptable forecast outside of the fitting period. It is worth noting that a close fit to
historical data does not necessarily result in an accurate forecast due to potential overfitting (Narayan Pant & Starbuck, 1990). Over-fitting is due to the model incorporating
random fluctuations that do not repeat themselves in the holdout or forecast periods
(Rasmussen, 2004).
Fitting can be achieved via a simple grid search of smoothing parameter values,
e.g. 0-1 in increments of 0.1, or through the use of a non-linear optimiser such as
Microsoft Excels Solver (Radovilsky & Ten Eyck, 2000; Rasmussen, 2004), which
utilises the Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG2) algorithm.
39
Gardner (1985) suggests that a range of smoothing parameters should be

entertained and that parameters should be estimated from the data. In contrast to
Gardners suggestion, Silver, Pyke and Peterson (1998) observe that an alpha value
greater than 0.3 for a constant model may indicate that a trend model is more
appropriate.
Finally, Robb and Silver (2002) suggest that the shortening of product lifecycles
has increased noise (random error) in time series and as a result establishing SKU level
parameters may be less effective than establishing parameters at product group level.
2.3.6 Automatic Model Selection

The use of automatic selection of forecasting methods and subsequent
generation of forecasts supports the large number of time series often encountered in
business situations. In the case of inventory the number of SKUs is frequently in the
thousands. Automatic forecasting systems take five general forms (Tashman & Leach,
1991). A brief description of each follows:
1. Rule-Based Logic (expert system): A type of expert system that is applied to time
series extrapolation. Rules based on forecasting expertise and domain
knowledge are used to combine alternative extrapolations (Armstrong, 2001).
2. Automatic forecasting program (specification tests): A program that, without user
instructions, selects a forecasting method for each times series under study. The
method selection rules differ across programs but are frequently based on
comparisons of the fitting or the forecasting accuracy of a number of specified
methods (Armstrong, 2001).
3. Unified framework: The application of parameter optimisation to a unified
framework, such as exponential smoothing models based upon 4 parameters:
40
level, trend, seasonal, and trend-modification parameters (Tashman & Leach,

1991).
4. Forecasting contest: Automatic selection based on conducting a contest among a
prescribed group of methods (Tashman & Leach, 1991).
5. All possible specifications: Used for the selection of ARIMA models, all first and
second order regular ARMA specifications are fit resulting in likely models for the
user to then choose (Tashman & Leach, 1991).
In addition to the automatic forecasting systems that exclusively incorporate the

widely employed moving averages, exponential smoothing, regression, and ARIMA
techniques, a heuristic methodology known as Focus Forecasting is widely adopted by
practitioners. Focus forecasting was developed by Smith (1978) and is now embodied in
a software product known as Demand Solutions. The Demand Solutions product uses 20
equations (Tashman & Tashman, 1993), as follows in Table 3:
X
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Method
Previous quarter plus a growth factor (GF)
Same quarter last year
Same quarter last year plus GF
Mean of the two most recent quarters
Mean of the two most recent quarters plus GF
Previous quarter weighted 2/3 plus the preceding quarter weighted 1/3
Previous quarter weighted
Preceding two quarters each weighted
Previous quarter adjusted by the last year's difference
Mean of the corresponding quarters of the past 2 years
Previous quarter adjusted by corresponding differences of the past two years
Mean of the last 4 quarters
Mean of the last 4 quarters plus GF
Mean of the last 8 quarters
Mean of the last 8 quarters "seasonally adjusted"
Mean of the last 4 quarters weighted 2/3 plus the mean of quarters 5-8 weighted 1/3
Same as the previous one except "seasonally adjusted"
Simple exponential smoothing, Alpha =.1
Simple exponential smoothing, Alpha =.2
Simple exponential smoothing, Alpha specified by user or optimized by a grid search
Table 3. Focus Forecasting Equations
41
The Demand Solutions software produces twelve one-step ahead forecasts for all
20 models and calculates the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) resulting in a
winner (recommended model).
Although Focus Forecasting has been widely adopted, 850 sites in 48 countries
(Tashman and Tashman, 1993), it has not performed well in a number of empirical
studies against damped-trend and seasonal exponential smoothing methods (Flores &
Whybark, 1986; Gardner & Anderson, 1997; Gardner, Anderson-Fletcher, & Wicks,
2001).
2.3.7 Event Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts

The use of promotional activities to stimulate demand is a frequently adopted
industry practice (Caniato, Kalchschmidt, Ronchi, Verganti, & Zotteri, 2005). Promotions
are defined by Kotler (1994) as a diverse collection of incentive tools, mostly short term,
designed to stimulate quicker and/or greater purchase of particular products/services by
consumers.
The impact of sales promotions can be determined in a variety of ways including
techniques such as intervention analysis (Box et al., 1994) through to the judgmental
adjustment of baseline statistical forecasts (Adya, Armstrong, Collopy, & Kennedy, 2000;
Goodwin, 2000). In forecasting terms, promotions can be considered events, also
known as interventions. Events are not limited to promotions but could include such
changes to the time series as new laws, strikes, or even exceptional supplier delivery
problems and as such can have either a positive or a negative effect on sales demand.
Goodwin and Fildes (1999) state that While statistical methods are superior at distilling
information from historical data, management judgment can be used to assess the effect
of exceptional events like promotions. A great deal of evidence supports the judgmental
adjustment of statistical forecasts, if performed in a structured manner to avoid such
42
issues as bias and over-optimism (Goodwin, 2002; Nikolopoulos, Fildes, Goodwin, &
Lawrence, 2005). The structured judgmental adjustment of forecasts is particularly useful
for unsystematic events and if the timing and impact of the event can be identified with
reasonable accuracy (Armstrong, 2001).
Fildes, Goodwin, and Lawrence (2003) explore potential design features of
forecasting decision support systems which includes the need to incorporate judgmental
adjustment of statistical forecasts. AbdElRehim (2004) presents a method of structuring
managerial judgment and forecast combining known as modified progressive event
exponential smoothing (MEPEES). MEPEES essentially quantifies an agents (persons)
judgmental forecasting accuracy and weights judgmental adjustments of exponential
smoothing forecasts accordingly.
In summary, the evidence supports the structured judgmental adjustment of
statistical forecasts when events can be identified and quantified accurately through
appropriate domain knowledge.
Having decided on an appropriate forecasting model, or combination of models,
there is a need to evaluate the models performance in terms of forecast accuracy
(Makridakis & Hibon, 2000).
43
2.4 Forecast Evaluation

23B
Forecast accuracy measures can be classified as either standard or relative.

Standard measures use the same unit of measure as the data in question, e.g. stockkeeping-units, or dollars. The problem with standard measures is that it can be difficult to
interpret the magnitude of the error as a forecast containing large values could well
produce a standard error that appears large but is, nevertheless, a relatively accurate
forecast. The most common standard forecast accuracy measures, as described by
Sanders (1997) and Makridakis et al. (1998), are: mean error (ME), mean absolute error
(MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE).
Relative measures provide forecast accuracy as a percentage, which allows easy
interpretation of the relative accuracy of different periods and/or forecasts. The most
common relative measures are: mean percentage error (MPE), mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE), relative absolute error (RAE), and Theils U. Other measures
have been proposed in the literature (Z. Chen & Yang, 2004), although practitioner
adoption of such measures is very low (Carbone & Armstrong, 1982). A description and
critique of each common forecast accuracy measure, divided into standard and relative,
follows.
2.4.1 Standard Forecast Accuracy Measures

The mean error (ME) provides an average of all forecast errors (Yt Ft ) . The
advantage of the mean error is that it allows the practitioner to evaluate any bias present
in the forecast, i.e. the tendency for the model to over or under forecast. The
disadvantage of mean error is that positive and negative errors could be present but
cancelled by each other resulting in little information on overall accuracy (Makridakis et
al., 1998, p. 43).
44
Mean Error:
1 n
ME = et
n t=1
(10)
The mean absolute error (MAE), also known as the mean absolute deviation
(MAD), provides an average of all forecast errors, but does not offset positive with
negative errors. The mean absolute error therefore overcomes the problems of the mean
error. However, as a standard accuracy measure, it too suffers from the drawbacks of
using the unit of measure with its inherent difficulty in interpretation. The MAE does
however provide the practitioner with a good indication of the magnitude of forecast error
(Makridakis et al., 1998, p. 43).
Mean Absolute Error:
MAE =
1 n
et
n t =1
(11)
The mean squared error (MSE) provides the average of the squared forecast
errors. The advantage of squaring the forecast errors is that the effect of positive and
negative errors is cancelled. The main disadvantage with the mean squared error is that
it can be difficult to interpret due to the measure potentially appearing large relative to
the forecasting units. The inherent difficulty of interpreting mean squared error can be
mitigated by calculating the root mean squared error (RMSE). The root mean squared
error simply provides the square root of the mean squared forecast errors, which are
easier to relate to the units being forecast (Makridakis et al., 1998, p. 43).
45
Mean Squared Error:
MSE =
1 n 2
et
n t =1
(12)
Root Mean Squared Error
RMSE =
1
et2
n t=1
(13)
2.4.2 Relative Forecast Accuracy Measures

Mean percentage error (MPE) provides an average of all forecast errors as a
percentage. The advantage of the mean percentage error is that, like mean error, it
allows the practitioner to evaluate any bias present in the forecast. A second advantage
is that as a relative accuracy measure it is unit-free allowing comparisons across
different time series. The disadvantage of mean percentage error is that positive and
negative errors could be present but cancelled by each other (Makridakis et al., 1998, p.
44).
Mean Percentage Error:
MPE =
1 n
PEt
n t =1
Yt Ft
Yt
where PE t =
(14)
100
The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) shares the advantages of the mean
percentage error, but overcomes the canceling of positive and negative values.
46
Makridakis (1993a) describes the mean absolute percentage error as a measure that
incorporates the best characteristics among the various accuracy criteria due to its ease
of interpretation by decision makers. Being a relative measure it can be used to compare
the forecast accuracy of different time series and/or horizons. Two serious limitations of
MAPE are that dividing numbers close to zero can cause large error values and division
by zero returns infinity (Collopy & Armstrong, 2000; Hyndman & Koehler, 2005).
However, variants of MAPE such as the unbiased absolute percentage error (UAPE)
overcome such limitations (Makridakis, 1993a).
Mean Absolute Percentage Error:
MAPE =
1 n
PEt
n t =1
Yt Ft
Yt
where PE t =
(15)
100
Unbiased Absolute Percentage Error:
UAPE =
1 n
PEt
n t =1
where PEt =
(16)
Yt Ft
100
(Yt + Ft ) / 2
Mentzer and Moon (2005) propose a variation of MAPE known as the aggregate
MAPE which weights the individual product MAPEs by the revenue contribution (units x
price) of each product. The aim is to provide an aggregate forecast accuracy measure
that is more representative of the financial impact of forecast accuracy.
47
Aggregate Mean Absolute Percentage Error (Revenue Weighted MAPE):

n
RW MAPE = MAPE p ( D p / DT )
(17)
t =1
where MAPEP = MAPE for Product p
D p = Dollar demand revenue for Product p
DT = Total dollar demand revenue for all products
I have developed an example as follows:

Product
A
B
C
Revenue (Units x Price)

MAPE
Weighting
100 x $5 = $500.00
12%
A. 0.12 x (500 / 3,050) = 0.020
50 x $15 = $750.00
9%
B. 0.09 x (750 / 3,050) = 0.022
10 x $180 = $1,800.00
18%
C. 0.18 x (1,800 / 3,050) = 0.106
Total Revenue
Average MAPE
Aggregate MAPE (A+B+C)
$3,050.00
13%
14.8%
Table 4. Aggregate Mean Absolute Percentage Error Example
The example shown in Table 4 demonstrates a higher RW-MAPE weighting

X
applied based on product revenue, as opposed to the equally weighted (Average MAPE)
method. Mentzer and Moons (2005) Aggregate MAPE is clearly a more useful forecast
accuracy measure for commercial decision making than average MAPE. However,
product revenue does not necessarily reflect the importance of a products financial
impact. The reason being is that gross revenue is not as important as gross margin, i.e.
a product could command high revenue but conceivably result in a low or even negative
margin.
Theils U-statistic compares the proposed method with a random walk via the root
mean squared error (RMSE). Armstrong and Collopy (1992) argue that Theils U-statistic
is difficult for practitioners to interpret and communicate. However, the U-statistic has the
advantage of always providing relativity with another forecasting method (random walk).
48
Theils U-Statistic:
n 1
U =
(FPE
t =1
t +1
APE t +1 )
n 1
( APE )
t =1
(18)
2
t +1
where FPE t +1 =
Ft +1 Yt
Yt
APEt +1 =
Yt +1 Yt
Yt
Carbone and Armstrong (1982) found that both academics and practitioners
rated forecast accuracy as the most important selection criteria for an error measure,
with mean squared error (MSE) receiving the highest rating. Mean absolute percentage
error was rated second by academicians, but third behind mean absolute error by
practitioners. Following accuracy, ease of interpretation, and then cost/time were the
most frequently reported criteria (Carbone & Armstrong, 1982).
Irrespective of the
results of Carbone and Armstrongs (1982) study, the view of Makridakis (1993a) that
mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) incorporates the best characteristics of
forecast accuracy measures is that shared by the author. MAPE has also seen
widespread adoption in forecasting competitions, subsequent to the publication of the
Carbone and Armstrong (1982) study.
A fundamental weakness of the application of the average MAPE to large
commercial (sales forecasting) data sets is that no weighting is provided based on the
financial contribution of individual products. As stated by Armstrong and Collopy (1992)
relative error measures do not relate closely to the economic benefits associated with
the use of a particular forecasting method. This shortcoming can be partially overcome
by the use of Mentzer and Moons (2005) Aggregate MAPE.
49
2.5 Empirical Forecasting Studies

24B
Empirical studies of forecasting methods are common in the literature and a

number of peer reviewed journals are dedicated to forecasting, e.g. International Journal
of Forecasting, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, and The
Journal of Forecasting Methods and Systems. Empirical studies have taken three
general forms; simulated time series studies, case studies, and forecasting competitions.
Simulated time series studies use data generated from statistical processes, e.g.
Gaussian populations with different means, rather than actual sales data. Case studies
employ real world data sets as do the major forecasting competitions. Given the applied
nature of this research only case studies and forecasting competitions that use actual
sales data will be reviewed. In an effort to contain the scope of this review, only
frequently referenced and/or seminal works have been included, most notably the MSeries of forecasting competitions conducted by Spyros Makridakis et al. from 1982 to
2000.
2.5.1 Case Studies and Field Experiments

A large number of case studies involving the assessment of exponential
smoothing have been published in the peer-reviewed literature. Armstrong (1984)
identifies and reviews 39 studies that assess exponential smoothing and concludes that
more sophisticated methods do not provide benefits over simpler, pre-1960, methods. In
essence, Armstrong suggests that extrapolative forecasting techniques developed
between 1960 and 1984 have not yielded the anticipated gains. Armstrong concludes by
stating that practitioners should adopt simpler methods, such as exponential smoothing,
as opposed to more complex methods, such as Box-Jenkins. Armstrong also notes that
Box-Jenkins is actually a technique for automatically identifying a suitable method,
rather than a forecasting method itself.
50
Schnaars (1984) case study, Situational factors affecting forecast accuracy,

indicates that certain products have higher forecasting accuracy than others, namely
nondurable goods compared with durable.
Gardner (2006) identifies 66 studies involving exponential smoothing and makes
a number of generalisations as follows; The data were frequently seasonal. However,
seasonal exponential smoothing methods were rarely used and should have been; many
studies only used one exponential smoothing method, and damped trend methods which
have performed well in large scale forecasting competitions were not often employed.
2.5.2 The M-Series

The most widely cited empirical studies are those of Spyros Makridakis, the MSeries forecasting competitions. The M-Series evolved from the work of Makridakis and
Hibon (1979) in which the authors conducted a comparative accuracy study of
forecasting methods using 111 time series that varied by country, time period, industry,
and company. The Makridakis and Hibon (1979) study concluded that simple methods
produced accurate forecasts.
An extension to the Makridakis and Hibon study was conducted by Makridakis et
al. (1982) known as the M-competition. The M-competition compared the forecasting
accuracy of 24 methods using 1001 time series of varying horizons, as follows: (1)
Nave, (2) Simple moving average, (3) Single exponential smoothing, (4) Adaptive
response rate exponential smoothing, (5) Holts two parameter linear exponential
smoothing, (6) Browns one parameter linear exponential smoothing, (7) Browns one
parameter quadratic exponential smoothing, (8) Linear regression trend fitting, (9-16)
Deseasonalised variants of methods 1 to 8, (17) Holt-Winters linear and seasonal
exponential smoothing, (18) AEP (automatic) Carbone-Longini, (19) Bayesian
forecasting, (20) Combining forecasts (simple average of methods (11), (12), (13), (14),
51
(17), and (18)), (21) Combining forecasts (weighted average of methods used in 20),
(22) Box-Jenkins methodology, (23) Lewandoskis FORSYS system, (24) ARARMA
methodology. The M-Competition concluded by confirming two significant hypotheses;
statistically sophisticated methods do not perform better than simple models such as
exponential smoothing, and the combining of forecasts outperforms the accuracy of the
individual methods. The concept of combining forecast methods is taken up later in this
discussion.
In 1987 Makridakis et al. (1993) commenced the M2-Competition which
consisted of providing forecasting experts with industry data and having them produce a
judgmentally-adjusted 15 month ahead forecast. A second 15-month ahead forecast was
then submitted following the experts review of the first round of actual results.
Throughout the competition, the experts were free to request additional information from
the participating companies that had provided the datasets to enable judgmental input to
the forecasts. Forecasts were also produced by purely quantitative approaches, e.g.
exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins.
The M2-Competition concluded that simple methods proved more accurate than
complex and judgementally adjusted methods. The competition also concluded that the
combining of simple methods increased accuracy.
The final M-competition, the M3 (Makridakis & Hibon, 2000), compared the
relative accuracy of twenty four methods using 3003 time series. The series represented
micro, industry, macro, finance, and demographic data over yearly, quarterly, and
monthly periods. Each method was provided with historical data for fitting and then used
to produce forecasts over various horizons. Ex-post values (actuals) were then used to
evaluate each of the methods using the following accuracy measures: symmetric mean
absolute percentage error, average ranking, percentage better, median symmetric
absolute percentage error and median relative absolute error.
52
The results confirmed the conclusions of the two earlier M-Competitions and the
Makridakis and Hibon (1982) study, being: complex methods (e.g. ARIMA and
ARARMA) do not result in greater forecast accuracy than simple methods (exponential
smoothing) and the combining of methods, on average, results in more accurate
forecasts. Further conclusions were the relative performance of methods varies
depending on the accuracy measures employed, and method accuracy varies
depending on the forecasting horizon, i.e. methods do not typically perform equally well
over all time horizons. The two later conclusions were also supported in the Fildes et al
(1998) study that used both telecommunication and M-competition data.
The M-competitions have not been without criticism. One statistical review of the
M3 competition results (Hibon & Stekler, 2003) concluded that irrespective of forecast
horizon, some methods consistently performed better or worse than average. Hibon and
Steklers statistical analysis did however allow methods to be ranked overall better than
average even though for some horizons they were actually not significantly worse than
average. Hibon and Stekler also state that the combination of methods produced mixed
results depending on the time-series and therefore the M-competition conclusion that the
combining of methods produces more accurate forecasts was not a valid hypothesis.
Armstrong (2006) challenges the entire notion of using statistical significance testing in
the context of forecast assessment, claiming that effect sizes are more important than
statistical significance. Armstrong also points out that the combining of forecasts in the
M3 competition resulted in a 4.7% error reduction over the component forecasts even
though Hibon and Stekler (2003) found this finding not to be statistically significant.
Armstrong concludes by stating that practitioners should ignore tests of statistical
significance. Clemens (1989) review of 209 forecast combining studies also lends
strong support to the validity of combining forecasts, as does more recent research such
as that of Chan, Kingsman and Wong (1999). The weight of evidence, including
53
Armstrongs (2001) published principles of forecasting (discussed below) supports the

combining of forecast methods.
Other criticisms of the M-competitions exist such as that of Newbold (1983), that large
scale forecasting competitions do not adequately reflect practice and as such should be
discontinued in favour of forecasting case studies. Clemen (2001), although generally
supportive of the M-competitions, notes that forecasting is not limited to business and
economic applications and that sophisticated methods (ARIMA) have produced valuable
insight when applied in the natural sciences.
The most significant finding of the M-Competitions is that simple methods
(exponential smoothing) tend to be equally accurate, if not more so, when compared with
complex methods (Box-Jenkins, or adaptive parameter methods).
In an effort to summarise the findings of empirical forecasting studies, Principles
of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Armstrong, 2001) was
published. This book includes contributions from 40 leading experts and presents 139
forecasting principles covering the setting of objectives, structuring the forecasting
problem, identifying information sources, collecting data, preparing data, selecting
methods, implementing methods, integrating judgmental and quantitative methods,
combining forecasts, evaluating methods, assessing uncertainty, and using forecasts
(presentation/learning). All principles are supported by reference to peer reviewed
published research.
The book also contains an assessment of forecasting software programs
(Tashman & Hoover, 2001) that rates spreadsheet add-ins, forecasting modules of
statistical programs, neural networks, and dedicated business forecasting programs
against the relevant forecasting principles (Table 5). Unfortunately, a fifth software
X
category, forecasting engines for demand planning was to be evaluated, but due to an
unwillingness of unnamed vendors to submit their products for review, was omitted.
54
Tashman and Hoover selected 30 principles that were considered relevant to forecasting
software and also included 15 software features. The forecasting principles and software
features were divided into data preparation, method selection, method implementation,
method evaluation, assessment of uncertainty, forecast presentation, and forecasting a
product hierarchy.
Software
Category
Category
Rating
Spreadsheet Add-Ins
CB Predictor
Excel DAT
Insight.xla
0.16
Forecasting Modules of Statistical Programs

Minitab
SAS/ ETS
Soritec for W 95/NT
SPSS Trends
0.42
Neural Network Programs

NeuroShell Predictor
NeuroShell Professional Time Series
SPSS Neural Connection
0.38
Dedicated Business-Forecasting Programs

Autobox
Forecast Pro
SmartForecasts
Time Series Expert
tsMetrix
0.60
Individual
Rating
0.26
0.03
0.18
0.43
0.77
0.25
0.25
0.35
0.54
0.27
0.74
0.70
0.67
0.48
0.44
Table 5. Assessment of Forecasting Software (Tashman and Hoover ,2001)
The assessment concluded that dedicated business forecasting software had the
highest adoption of forecasting principles with an overall 60% best-practices score.
Spreadsheet add-ins were found to have the poorest adoption of principles with a 16%
best practices rating. The demand forecasting functionality of SAP ERP is reviewed
next.
55
2.6 SAP Demand Forecasting Functionality

25B
SAPs ERP offering contains a logistics module (LO) with Sales and Operations
Planning functionality (LO-SOP). Sales and Operations Planning (SOP) is described by
SAP (2006) as a flexible forecasting and planning tool with which sales, production,
and other supply chain targets can be set on the basis of historical, existing, and
estimated future data . The relationship between the SOP tool and other SAP planning
functions are shown in Figure 6.
X
Figure 6. Information Flow between SOP and other SAP ERP Applications (Adapted
from SAP, 2006)
56
As can be seen in Figure 6, SOP is concerned with long and medium term
X
planning of independent demand (finished goods, not components) and aggregate

capacity. Demand management addresses medium term requirements at stock keeping
unit (SKU) level. MPS/MRP addresses short term planning, including dependent demand
items. Both production control and production order control are concerned with the
execution and control of plans. Once planning in the SOP tool has been performed then
planned independent requirements are transferred (either manually or automatically) to
the demand management module for subsequent input to materials requirement
planning (MRP). The planning process adopted by SAP is very similar to that espoused
by Vollmann, Berry and Whybark (1992) - See Figure 1.
X
2.6.1 SAP Sales and Operations Planning Module

The SOP tool allows the planning of sales, production/purchasing, inventory, and
forecasts, at various levels of aggregation, e.g. stock keeping units, product groups, or
organizational levels. Balancing of supply with demand can then be planned in the
preferred units of measure, i.e. units or dollars. The chosen organisational levels and
units of measure are referred to as planning hierarchies.
SOP data such as period units (days, months, years), characteristics (e.g.
company code, plant, materials), and key figures (e.g. sales forecast, actual sales,
production/purchasing quantities, and inventory) are contained in information structures.
The SOP tool requires that a planning method is assigned to an information structure.
The planning methods available are:
Consistent Planning: With consistent planning all data are stored at SKU level and
changes at any level of aggregation are represented at all other levels.
57
Level-by-level Planning: With level-by-level planning all data are stored at all planning
levels, independent of each other.
Delta Planning: With delta planning data are automatically aggregated to higher levels,
but changes are not automatically disaggregated. This planning method does not require
a planning hierarchy.
The use of planning hierarchies allows forecasting views at different levels of

aggregation. Highly aggregate forecasts provide an efficient view of the data for senior
executives, with lower levels of aggregation and/or SKU level providing the necessary
detail for operational managers/users. Fliedner (2001) reviews the literature on
hierarchical forecasting and discusses different methods of hierarchical forecasting
depending on the user requirements and resulting needs in terms of level(s) of
aggregation. Based on a review of the hierarchical forecasting literature one of Fliedners
(2001) conclusions is that proration based on hierarchy member fair share works
relatively well. The fair share approach is the same methodology used in SAPs
consistent planning hierarchy. Given support from the literature, SAPs adoption of
planning hierarchies are an accepted and efficient means of viewing and manipulating
forecasts at different levels.
2.6.2 The SOP Planning Table

Sales and operations planning is performed in the planning table (Figure 7). The
X
planning table consists of a header that shows the material or product group information,
and an input matrix where key figures and time buckets (periods) are displayed. The
planning table also provides SAP statistics graphic functionality (Figure 8).
X
58
Figure 7. SAP Planning Table (transaction MC94) showing key planning

figures
Figure 8. SAP Statistics Graphic showing forecast versus actual sales in

units
59
The planning table references planning types that are customized views
consisting of key figures, e.g. actual sales, forecast sales, production, and inventory.
Like planning hierarchies, planning types are based on information structures.
Macros are also available to allow mathematical operations to be performed on
key figures in a planning type e.g. forecast error and days supply of stock (stock / daily
sales). Although the available macro operators are limited, more complex code can be
developed as a functional enhancement in ABAP (Advanced Business Application
Programming), SAPs native programming language.
The SOP functionality also allows resource leveling to be performed to ensure
that plans are feasible from a capacity perspective. With resource leveling, key work
centers (bottlenecks), or product groups can be set up to show aggregate load and then
adjusted if necessary.
SAPs use of a planning table provides a familiar user interface in that it
resembles the commonly used Microsoft Excel format. However, user customisation of
the planning table and development of macros requires specialist knowledge of the
SAP configuration environment which is not intuitive. The application of SAPs
business graphics functionality allows the user to graphically display historical sales
values and forecast values. Visual interpretation of the data are a valuable first step in
selecting an appropriate forecasting method (Pegels, 1969) and evaluating the historical
fit and future accuracy of the selected method. It is notable that the system does not
provide basic time series tools such as correlograms for the assessment of cycles and
seasonality. Forecast values can also be adjusted, via mouse, through the SAP
business graphics interface.
Unfortunately the default system does not allow for the graphical, or table,
presentation of multiple forecasts. Such a feature would simplify comparative method
and/or parameter evaluations.
60
2.6.3 SOP Forecasting and Event Management

SAPs ERP offering provides nine time series forecast models and event
management. Table 6 shows the nine forecasting methods, along with parameters, and
X
model initialisation requirements.
Time Series Forecast Model

Pattern
Constant
Constant model
(1st-order exponential
smoothing)
Trend
Seasonal
Seasonal
Trend
Parameters
Initialisation
Alpha factor
All constant
models
require at
least one
period
Constant model with

smoothing factor adaptation ARRSES
smoothing)
N/A
Moving average model
Number of historical
values
Weighted moving average

model
Trend model
smoothing)
Weighting group
Alpha and Beta
factors
Three periods
Trend model
(2nd-order exponential
smoothing model)
Alpha factor
Three periods
Trend model
(2nd-order exponential
smoothing model with
parameter optimization)
Seasonal model (Winters
Method)
N/A
Three periods
Alpha and Gamma

factors
Periods per season
Alpha, Beta, and
Gamma factors
Periods per season
One season,
e.g. 12
months
One season
plus three
periods
Seasonal trend model

smoothing model)
Table 6. SAP Forecast Models and Parameters (Adapted from SAP, 2006)
61
In addition to the models shown in Table 6, the system allows users to adopt
X
historical sales values as forecast values and also provides automatic forecast selection
based on an ex-post forecast with tests for trend and/or seasonality (a tenth forecasting
approach, yet based on an automatic selection of the nine models shown in Table 6).
X
2.6.4 SAP Automatic Model Selection

If the user does not wish to specify a forecast model manually, the system can be
instructed to make an automatic selection. With automatic selection, the system
analyses the historical data and then selects the most suitable model. The following
model categories are possible; constant, trend, seasonal, and seasonal trend. If the
system cannot detect any regular pattern in the historical data (trend and/or seasonality),
it automatically selects the constant model.
SAP ERP provides two procedures for the automatic selection of forecasting methods
as detailed below:
Procedure 1: Various statistical tests and test combinations are performed depending
on the users level of knowledge of the time series to be forecast.
Trend test: In the trend test, the system subjects the historical values to a regression
analysis and checks to see whether there is a significant trend pattern.
Seasonal test: In the seasonal test, the system clears the historical values of any
possible trends and then carries out an autocorrelation test.
Procedure 2: The system calculates the models to be tested using various combinations
for alpha, beta, and gamma. The smoothing factors are also varied between 0.1 and 0.5
in intervals of 0.1. The system then chooses the model which displays the lowest mean
62
absolute deviation (MAD). Procedure 2 is more precise than procedure 1, but takes
significantly longer.
The criteria for automatic model selection are based on the calculation of total
error, mean absolute deviation (MAD), tracking signal, and Theils coefficient (U-statistic)
over the ex-post period (SAP, 2006). However, it is not possible to view either the
tracking signal or Theils coefficient, nor determine the weighting given to each accuracy
measure to arrive at an automatic selection through standard SAP reports. The lack of
visibility of underlying analysis processes restricts the users ability to assess the quality
of the ex-post forecast. A further serious shortcoming of the SOP module is the lack of
any error measure evaluation as standard key figures in the planning table. This lack of
error measures also limits the ability of the user to easily assess historical forecast
accuracy on an ongoing basis.
SAPs adoption of simple methods, i.e. exponential smoothing, is in line with the
empirical evidence on the relative accuracy of forecasting methods (Armstrong, 1984;
Makridakis et al., 1982; Makridakis et al., 1993; Makridakis & Hibon, 1979, 2000).
However, the system does not allow for the combining of methods which has been
shown to improve overall forecast accuracy (Armstrong, 1989; Clemen, 1989; Makridakis
& Hibon, 2000).
SAP (2006) suggest that if forecast models are being manually selected, i.e. no
systems test for trend and/or seasonality, then reference should be made to the following
graphic (Figure 9):
X
63
CONSTANT MODEL
TREND MODEL
SEASONAL MODEL
SEASONAL TREND MODEL
Figure 9. SAP Model Identification for Different Historical Patterns (Adapted from
SAP, 2006)
Figure 9 appears to be a simplification of Pegels (1969) classification and as such
X
provides a research-supported method for determining the appropriateness of the

available forecasting method.
An extension to basing method selection on historical patterns in the data would
be to provide criteria based on the required forecasting horizon. One of the conclusions
of the M-Competitions was that the relative accuracy of forecasting methods appears to
be dependent on the forecasting horizon in question (Makridakis & Hibon, 2000).
The SAP system also provides functionality to correct outliers automatically in the
historical data on which the forecast is based (Figure 10). The system calculates a
X
tolerance lane for the historical time series by generating an ex-post forecast plus or
minus a user defined sigma factor multiplied by the MAE. Historical data that lies outside
64
the tolerance lane is corrected so that it corresponds to the ex-post forecast value for
that point in time.
SALES
OUTLIER CONTROL
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
TOLERANCE LANE
OUTLIER
10
11
12
TIME
Figure 10. SAP Outlier Correction (Adapted from SAP, 2006)

The width of the tolerance lane for outlier control is defined by the sigma factor: the
smaller the sigma factor, the greater the control. The default sigma factor is 1, which
means that 90% of the data remains uncorrected. If you set the sigma factor yourself, set
it at between 0.6 and 2 (SAP, 2006).
2.6.5 Event management.

Events provide causal functionality so that the impact of future sales promotions
can be applied to the time series forecast, either as cumulative or proportional values
(Figure 11 & Figure 12).
X
65
EVENT MANAGEMENT CORRECTED
6
5
4
ORIGINAL
3
2
1
0
1
10
11
12
Figure 11. Promotional Event Curve (Adapted from SAP, 2006)
Figure 12. Event Planning Screen (transaction MC64)
66
The literature suggests that when both the timing and impact of future events is
known then forecasts should be adjusted accordingly (Armstrong, 2001), therefore
SAPs inclusion of event management is in line with the reported research. However,
the system does not accommodate regression analysis and/or intervention analysis, or
facilitate a structured judgmental approach to determine the historical impact of events,
instead it is left to the user to either perform the required analysis outside of SAP or rely
on a purely judgmental approach to determining the impact of past and future events.
2.6.6 Generation of Forecasts

SOP allows sales forecasts to be run online, from the planning table, and
evaluated against the following criteria: Basic value, trend value, mean absolute
deviation (MAD), and error total of forecast versus historical. The SOP forecasting
functionality also includes forecast profiles (Figure 13) that allow forecast models and
X
parameters to be saved and reused for multiple forecasting runs. Forecasts can also be
saved as forecast versions to allow comparisons between different models and/or
parameters. The running of forecast profiles and the subsequent saving as forecast
versions can also be achieved via mass processing, which allows large jobs to be
scheduled and run in the background.
67
Figure 13. Configuration of Forecast Profiles (transaction MC96)
The ability to generate and save multiple forecasts through forecast profiles and massprocessing jobs is a useful feature. However, as already stated, the system does not
accommodate comparisons of multiple forecasts and/or parameters within the same
planning table or graphical display.
In summary, the SAP ERP SOP module utilises hierarchical forecasting
concepts that are supported by the literature. However, the system is limited in its
graphical presentation of forecasts and that could well inhibit both user acceptance and
decision-making. In relation to forecast methods, the system uses accepted and proven
forecasting methods (moving average and exponential smoothing) and applies a
variation of Pegels (1969) classification to the selection of methods. This conclusion
regarding the suitability of the available forecast methods is of great importance as,
irrespective of the somewhat limited user interface, a poor choice of available forecasting
methods would render the SOP module ineffective in a business environment. As stated
earlier, demand forecasting is a critical input to allocating and mobilising resources to
68
meet customer demand at least cost. Mistakes in demand forecasting can prove serious,
both in terms of customer service (revenue) and inventory levels (cost). The ability to
adjust forecasts based on foreseeable events, e.g. promotions, is also an important
feature, which is supported by the research literature (Armstrong, 2001).
Table 5 provides a review and summary of the SAP ERP functionality using the
Tashman and Hoover criteria (2001), details of which were covered in the earlier
literature review. The overall rating for SAPs ERP is 0.20 (i.e. the software achieved
20% of the possible maximum against best practice forecasting principles) this compares
with an average of 0.60 for dedicated business-forecasting programs. Although 0.60 was
the average for dedicated business-forecasting programs, the SAS ETS (Econometrics
and Time Series) offering (classified as a forecasting module of a statistical package)
scored highest with 0.77 in the Tashman and Hoover review.
SAP ERP Forecasting Principles Review
SAP ERP Rating
Data Preparation
Examining whether series is forecastable
Cleaning the data (errors, missing values, outliers)
Adjusting for seasonality and trading days
Transforming the data
Plotting cleansed, transformed and deseasonalised data
Method Selection
Matching forecasting method to the data
Selecting methods based on comparison of track records
Discouraging needless complexity
Considering out-of-sample performance in method selection
Combining forecasts - formal procedure
Including dynamic terms in causal model
Method Implementation
Selecting fit vs. test period
Choosing best-fit criterion
Adjusting for expected events
Weighting the most relevant data more heavily
Allowing user to integrate judgment
Overriding statistical forecasts
Integrating forecasts of explanatory variables into causal model
Method Evaluation
Testing validity of model assumptions
Distinguishing in-sample from out-of-sample forecast accuracy
Providing multiple measures of accuracy
69
0.20
O
+, outlier correction
O
O
+, limited plotting with SAP
business graphics
0.17
+, Pegels based guidance in
documentation only
O
O
+, basic MAE
O
O
0.21
O
O
+, limited event management
O
+, manual input and/or override of
forecasts
O
0.1
O
O
+, not all visible to user (MAE
visible, but not Theils U statistic)
Providing error measures that adjust for scale and outliers

Measuring errors by forecast horizon
Assessment of Uncertainty
Providing objective prediction intervals
Developing empirical prediction intervals from forecast errors
Specifying sources of uncertainty
Combining prediction intervals from alternative methods
Forecast Presentation
Transparency in theoretical assumptions made
Explaining methodology
Illustrating how forecasts were generated
Graphically presenting point and interval forecasts
Providing forecasts in exportable formats
Forecast Report
Forecasting a Product Hierarchy
Automatic Method Selection
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
Facilitate comparison of forecasting and reconciling approaches
0.17
O
O
O
+, point forecasts only
+, Microsoft Excel download
O
0.43
++, based on tests for seasonality,
trend, and resulting multiple
measures of ex-post accuracy
++, range of hierarchical
reconciliation
O
O
+ range of hierarchical
reconciliation
O
Ratings Legend: - Undermined, o Ignored, + Partially implemented,

++ Effectively Implemented
Overall Weighted Average for

All Principles = 0.20
Multiple procedures for reconciliation

Adjustments for special events
Procedures for intermittent demands
Identify problem forecasts for manual review
Automatic reconciliation of judgmental overrides
Table 7. SAP ERP Forecasting Principles Review
In summary, SAPs ERP system fails in many areas of decision support including the
provision of correlograms, multiple forecast comparisons, a structured event
management process, and visible historical error measures which could account for the
high level of ERP users (approximately 45%, in 2001) who perform demand forecasting
in stand alone applications (Vega, 2001).
70
2.7 SAP Demand Forecasting Research

26B
Limited published research in the area of the SAP demand forecasting has been
reported. Bahl and Boykin (2000) review the manufacturing resource planning
functionality of SAP and conclude that SAP ERP contains all the features and options
to configure a sophisticated implementation of MRPII and that the software is built upon
best practice. Although the article explains the primary SAP MRPII processes and
configuration, it is an elementary description that does not describe or critique SAPs
demand forecasting functionality.
Portougal (2005) describes some issues surrounding the implementation of SAP
for production planning at EA Cakes Limited. However, in the EA implementation the
sales forecast is derived as follows: sales staff compare actual sales with long-term
forecasts and using judgment make necessary adjustments. Portougal (2005) does
identify the manual nature of the EA Cakes forecasting approach as a problem, but does
not provide any indication of alternatives.
Catt and Barbour (2005) describe the forecasting functionality of the SAP
offering, along with the underlying forecasting methods. They survey the literature in an
attempt to identify which model might best meet the needs of the market concluding that
SAPs available forecast models are fit for purpose.
SAP also offers an advanced planning and scheduling (APS) application as part
of the companys SCM (Supply Chain Management) suite. The SAP application is
known as the Advanced Planner and Optimiser (APO) and contains demand forecasting
functionality that is superior to that of the SAP ERP offering. Improvements over the
SAP ERP forecasting functionality include a more flexible (easily user customisable)
planning table, the addition of Crostons (1972) method for forecasting products with
intermittent demand, trend dampening, inclusion of causal forecasting in the form of
multiple linear regression, composite forecasting that allows various weightings to
71
combine different forecasts, life cycle planning, and collaborative demand planning
based on CPFR principles. A full description of APO functionality is presented in Bansal
(2003). Seeger (2006) reviews SAPs APO offering against a variation of the Tashman
and Hoover software principles criteria (2001) and concludes a rating of 0.44 (cw SAP
ERP of 0.20). Seegers rating still compares poorly with the average Tashman and
Hoover rating of 0.60 for dedicated business-forecasting programs.
A further SAP offering, SAP Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) contains
a business planning and simulation component (SEM-BPS) incorporating linear
regression and trend dampening in addition to the basic SAP ERP functionality (See
Table 6. SAP Forecast Models and Parameters (Adapted from SAP, 2006).
X
Chandra, Ulgen, Tsui and Kampfner (2000) conducted research on the

development of non-linear demand forecasting algorithms for the SAP APO
environment. However, like the Bansal paper, this research did not address the
forecasting functionality of the widely adopted SAP ERP system.
72
2.8 Conclusion of Literature Review

27B
The review of the literature has identified the role of demand forecasting in the
context of information and communication technology (ICT) enabled supply chain
management (SCM). Further, it has concluded that SAPs ERP demand forecasting
functionality appears to be adequately grounded in previous theoretical and empirical
research. This statement is made in light of SAPs use of exponential smoothing
methods and the application of a variant of Pegels classification for the selection of
methods. The SAP ERP offering was found to have some serious limitations including;
lack of tools for time series feature identification (correlograms), no ability to perform
forecast comparisons, no structured (qualitative or quantitative) event management
process, and no standard reporting of historical error measures including the use of
commercially oriented forecast error assessment.
The paucity of literature relating to SAPs demand forecasting functionality
appears to present a significant gap, particularly given the large number of users of this
dominant ERP package. The gap raises a number of important questions regarding the
professional application of demand forecasting with SAPs ERP system, namely;
1.
Do the SAP default forecast model smoothing parameters provide the Best-fit
forecast for the company?
2.
Does the combination of event management (causal factors) with time series
techniques provide a Better Fit than the time series techniques alone?
3.
Which of the nine available SAP time series (univariate) forecasting models
provides the Best-fit forecast for the company?
4.
Are the forecast error measures utilised by SAP representative of the

commercial impact of the forecasts?
The next Chapter will present the methodology used to answer the research
questions.
73
3.0 METHODOLOGY
6B
_____________________________________________________________________
Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems such as SAP are widely adopted
and typically contain sales forecasting functionality. The sales forecasting accuracy of
ERP systems can have a critical impact on business profitability and empirical research
into the effectiveness of ERP offerings should be considered a valuable endeavour.
The review of supply chain management and sales forecasting literature revealed
no specific research on demand forecasting using any of SAPs enterprise resource
planning offerings, apart from the work of Catt and Barbour (2005). Given the current
number of SAP users, combined with the significant growth of SAP, a valuable
opportunity exists to evaluate such systems in this important context. A further gap
revealed the need to evaluate forecast model performance in a commercial context, i.e.
costs relating to forecast error.
However, commonly adopted measures of forecast
accuracy, such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error
(MAPE), do not provide explicit costs associated with forecast errors.
The following sections address the need for commercial forecast evaluation.
In an effort to improve on Mentzer and Moons (2005) method I propose an

extension based on margin weighted contribution as follows:
3.1 Margin Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error

28B
MW MAPE = MAPE p ( M p / GM T )
(19)
t =1
where MAPE p = MAPE for Product p
74
M p = Margin contribution for Product p
GM T = Gross Margin (margin for all products)
An example follows:
Product
A
B
C
Revenue (Units x Price)

100 x $5 = $500.00
50 x $15 = $750.00
10 x $180 = $1,800.00
Margin Contribution
(Revenue less Cost)
100 x ($5.00-$2.50) = $250.00
50 x ($15.00-$7.50) = $375.00
10 x ($180.00-$126.00) = $540.00
Total Revenue
$3,050.00
Gross Margin
$1,165.00
MAPE
12.00%
9.00%
18.00%
Average MAPE
13.00%
Revenue Weighting
A.
B.
C.
0.12 x (500 / 3,050) = 0.020

0.09 x (750 / 3,050) = 0.022
0.18 x (1,800 / 3,050) = 0.106
Revenue Weighted MAPE (A+B+C)

14.80%
Margin Weighting
A.
B.
C.
0.12 x (250 / 1165) = 0.026

0.09 x (375 / 1165) = 0.029
0.18 x (540 / 1165) = 0.083
Margin Weighted MAPE (A+B+C)

13.80%
Table 8. Margin Weighted MAPE Example
The example shown in Table 8 demonstrates the higher MAPE weighting applied based
X
on product margin. A comparison of the three measures reveals that the average MAPE
measure (13.00%) has overstated the accuracy of the forecast by not considering
financial impact. The Aggregate MAPE (14.80%) has applied a disproportionately heavy
weighting to Product C based on revenue thereby understating the financial impact and
the Margin Weighted MAPE (13.80%) has provided the most representative weighting
based on product margin contribution. The differences in the relative percentages could
of course differ based on product revenue and cost. However, the principle of weighting
the MAPE based on margin contribution is a valuable step forward for commercial
decision-making as margin weighting is more indicative of product profitability than
revenue weighting.
75
3.2 Inventory Cost

29B
Inventory costs are the costs associated with procuring or producing inventory
and the cost of carrying inventory. The costs of procuring/producing inventory are known
as unit variable costs (denoted by the symbol v) and include the price of the item plus
freight for purchased items or the production costs for produced items and any other
costs associated with making the item available for sale (Silver et al., 1998). The costs
incurred by carrying inventory are less clear than those of procuring/producing it. They
include storage, insurance, investment, obsolescence, damage, deterioration, and the
opportunity cost of the funds tied up in inventory. Silver et al. (1998, p. 45) use the
following formula for inventory carrying cost:
Inventory Carrying Cost:
Carrying costs per year = I vr
(20)
Where I = average inventory in units
v = unit variable cost

r = carrying charge, the cost in dollars of carrying one dollar of inventory for one
month.
76
3.3 Safety Stock Calculation

30B
The calculation of safety stock takes two general forms, as described by Zinn and
Marmorstein (1990); the first is calculated based on the variance of demand (the
demand system), the second based on the variance of demand forecast errors (the
forecast system). Zinn and Marmorsteins simulation of the two methods demonstrated a
mean percentage reduction of 14.6% using the forecast system over the demand system
for the same level of service. On the basis of the Zinn and Marmorstein research I will
focus on the calculation of safety stock using the forecast system as follows:
Safety Stock Calculation:
SS = k R + L
(21)
where SS = safety stock in units
k = safety factor from a table of normal distribution probabilities (Table 9)

X
R + L = standard deviation of forecast errors in units over the critical

protection period (review period (R) and the replenishment lead time (L)), in
months.
The safety stock calculation assumes independent demand, i.e. no autocorrelation.
k
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
Service
Level (P1)
99.997%
99.995%
99.993%
99.989%
99.984%
99.977%
99.966%
99.952%
99.931%
99.903%
99.865%
99.813%
k
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
Service
Level (P1)
97.128%
96.407%
95.544%
94.520%
93.319%
91.924%
90.320%
88.493%
86.434%
84.135%
81.594%
78.815%
77
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
99.744%
99.653%
99.534%
99.379%
99.180%
98.928%
98.610%
98.214%
97.725%
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
75.804%
72.575%
69.147%
65.543%
61.791%
57.926%
53.983%
50.000%
Table 9. Normal Distribution N(0,1)
The standard deviation of forecast errors is calculated as follows:
= / 2 x MAE or an approximation 1.25 x MAE
(22)
where MAE is the mean absolute forecast error
Having calculated the required safety stock to meet a given service level we can then
determine the costs associated with the forecast error. Determining the costs associated
with competing forecasting models makes the commercial value of each model explicit.
To achieve this aim I have modified Silver, Pyke and Petersons (1998, p. 263) formula
for a specified fractional charge ( B2 ) as follows:
78
3.4 Cost of Forecast Error

31B
CFE = ( SSvr +
B5 M p R + LGu (k )
R
)P
(23)
where CFE = annual cost of forecast error in dollars
SS = safety stock in units

v = unit cost, in $/unit
r = inventory carrying charge, in $/$/month (cost in dollars of carrying one dollar
of inventory for one month).
B5 = fractional charge of margin per unit short

M p = product margin in dollars
Gu (k ) = standard unit normal loss function (unit normal distribution)

P = period multiplier to convert from months to year
The cost of forecast error formula considers both costs of inventory ( SSvr ) and the costs
associated
with
lost
sales
B5 M p R + LGu (k )
R
).
The
formula
provides
comprehensive approach to evaluating forecast error costs and the trade offs between
desired service level and inventory holding. It is important to note that the formula utilises
product margin to ascertain the cost of lost sales, as opposed to Silver, Pyke and
Petersons use of unit cost. My rationale is that lost margin better reflects the true costs
of poor service.
79
An example of the Cost of Forecast Error (CFE) follows using a constant model
(1st order exponential smoothing), alpha 0.2 applied to a product with a MAE of 4.31
units per month.
Monthly Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 4.31 units/month

Unit cost in $/unit = $31.33
Product margin in $/unit = $125.79
Leadtime + review period = 4 months
Inventory holding cost, r = 2.5% of unit cost per month
Cost of lost sales in $/unit = 50% of unit margin
Service level factor, k = 1.645 (P1=95%)
Period multiplier to convert from monthly to annual value = 12
Step 1: Estimate safety stock in units (service level factor x 1.25 x MAE x the square root
of the leadtime + review period)
Safety Stock (SS) = 1.645 x 1.25 x 4.31 x
4 = 17.72
(24)
Step 2: Multiply safety stock by monthly inventory carrying charge (safety stock x unit
cost x monthly inventory holding cost)
17.72 x $31.33 x 2.5% = $13.88
(25)
Step 3: Estimate lost sales in units (standard deviation of forecast errors over review
period and leadtime x standard unit normal loss function of the service level). NB. Excel
notation shown.
1.25 x 4.31 x SQRT(4) x (1/SQRT(2*PI())*EXP(-POWER(1.645,2)/2))
-(1.645*(1-NORMSDIST(1.645)) = 0.2246
80
(26)
Note: Normsdist is the Excel spreadsheet function for the following equation:
k2
1 2
f (k ) =
e
2
Step 4: Estimate lost sales margin due to unavailable product (percentage charge per
unit short x product margin in dollars x standard unit normal loss function)
(50% x $125.79) x 0.2246 = $14.13 per month
(27)
Step 5: Add safety stock holding cost and lost sales margin and multiply by 12 to
annualise to arrive at the cost of forecast error (CFE).
($13.88 + $14.13) x 12 = $336.12 per annum
(28)
In the above the annual CFE equals 1.23% of annual revenue for the sample SKU
($336.12/$27,339.00).
A further example and explanation of the Cost of Forecast Error (Catt, 2007) is
presented in appendix F: Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error, Foresight: The
International Journal of Applied Forecasting Summer 2007, Issue 7.
The MW-MAPE and CFE help address the important need to evaluate forecast model
performance in a commercial context. The next section will detail the research questions
and hypotheses.
81
3.5 Research Questions and Hypotheses

32B
Enterprise resource planning systems are complex integrated tools, with SAP
ERP requiring the configuration of 10,000+ data tables in a full system implementation
and containing in excess of 16,000 standard transactions. Evaluating such tools in their
entirety would be a substantial task requiring a team of researchers. However, as a
central indicator of the likely outcome of the application of the SAP logistics module to
the company, the available demand forecasting models are evaluated. The specific
research aim is to evaluate and identify the SAP forecasting model / technique that
provides the best-fit for the companys product portfolio. In order to achieve the specific
research aim the following research questions and hypotheses have been developed:
1.
Do the SAP default forecast model smoothing parameters provide the Best-fit
H10: There is no statistically significant difference between the SAP default
smoothing parameters and fitted smoothing parameters, for any of the applicable
forecasting models, as measured by the means of Mean Absolute Deviation
(MAE).
H1A: Fitted smoothing parameters produce a statistically significant better
forecast than the SAP default parameters based on Mean Absolute Deviation
(MAE), for any of the applicable forecasting models.
H20: There is no statistically significant difference between the SAP default

smoothing parameters and fitted smoothing parameters, for any of the applicable
forecasting models, as measured by the means of Cost of Forecast Error (CFE).
H2A: Fitted smoothing parameters produce a statistically significant better
forecast than the SAP default parameters based on the Cost of Forecast Error
82
(CFE), for any of the applicable forecasting models.
2.
Does the combination of event management (causal factors) with time series
techniques provide a Better Fit than the time series techniques alone?
H10: There is no statistically significant difference between event management
combined with time series techniques and time series techniques alone, for any
of the applicable forecasting models, as measured by the means of Mean
Absolute Deviation (MAE).
H1A: The combination of event management with time series techniques produce
a statistically significant better forecast based on Mean Absolute Deviation
(MAE), for any of the applicable forecasting models.
H20: There is no statistically significant difference between event management

combined with time series techniques and time series techniques alone, for any
of the applicable forecasting models, as measured by the means of Cost of
Forecast Error (CFE).
H2A: The combination of event management with time series techniques produce
a statistically significant better forecast based on the Cost of Forecast Error
(CFE), for any of the applicable forecasting models.
The causal factors in question 2 take the form of promotions. The adjustment of
forecasts for expected future events is considered a strong research need in forecasting
(Armstrong, 2001).
3.
Which of the ten available SAP forecasting models provides the Best-fit
83
H10: There is no statistically significant difference between any of the ten

available models, as measured by the means of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAE).
H1A: There is a statistically significant difference between the ten available
models, based on Mean Absolute Deviation (MAE).
H20: There is no statistically significant difference between any of the ten

available models, as measured by the means of Cost of Forecast Error (CFE).
H2A: There is a statistically significant deference between the ten available
models, based on the Cost of Forecast Error (CFE).
4.
Are the forecast error measures utilised by SAP representative of the

commercial impact of the forecasts?
H10: SAPs error measures adequately reflect the commercial impact of forecast
error.
H1A: SAPs error measures do not adequately reflect the commercial impact of
forecast error.
84
3.6 Research Method

3B
Primary domains of forecasting research include model development and testing,

model performance and application, and model implementation and management
(Moon, Mentzer, & Smith, 2003). Model development and testing is primarily concerned
with the development and testing of forecasting algorithms/techniques. Model
performance and application is usually situational in nature and attempts to identify the
situations where certain models are more appropriate. Model implementation and
management is concerned with organisational practices and processes that contribute to
forecast effectiveness. The proposed research falls within the model performance and
application domain (Moon et al., 2003), with the focus of the research being the
effectiveness of the SAP ERP tool in applying sales demand forecasting. Forecasting
research areas and associated questions and methods are shown in Figure 14
X
(Forecasting Research Methods). Each of these research areas and associated

questions employ techniques suited to the particular question being researched.
However, each technique should be considered in light of its respective strengths and
weaknesses.
85
Research Areas
Questions
Method
Model
Development
and Testing
Is this new model

better than earlier
models?
Laboratory Greater internal validity, but lower

validity
better
Experiment external
controlled, but less generalisable
(Neuman, 2000)
Is this model, or
Model
Performance and combination of
models,
Application
considered
superior in this
particular
situation?
Model
Implementation
and
Management
Which
organisational
forecasting
practices
produce superior
results?
Method Strengths and

Weaknesses
Lower internal validity, but higher

Field
Experiment external validity - replication can
be difficult (Neuman, 2000)
Case
Study
Captures local situation in great

detail, but can be difficult to
generalise (Cockburn, 2003)
Survey
Opportunity to study many

variables, but limited in ability to
determine causes (Cockburn,
2003)
Simulation
Greater internal validity, but lower

external
validity
better
controlled, but less generalisable
(Cockburn, 2003)
Survey
Opportunity to study many

variables, but limited in ability to
determine causes (Cockburn,
2003)
Case
Study
Captures local situation in great

detail, but can be difficult to
generalise (Cockburn, 2003)
Internal Validity Validity determined by whether an experimental treatment was the

sole cause of changes in a dependent variable. External Validity The ability of an
experiment to generalise the results to the external environment (Zikmund, 1997).
Figure 14. Forecasting Research Methods
The research is in the context of a New Zealand medium-sized enterprise (the company)
operating an enterprise resource planning system, i.e. the research takes the form of a
single case study. Yin (2003) states In general, case studies are the preferred strategy
when how or why questions are being posed, when the investigator has little control
86
over events, and when the focus is on a contemporary as opposed to historical

phenomena. It is notable that the company was the first small to medium sized
enterprise (SME) in the New Zealand market with a turnover of less than NZ$100 million
to implement SAPs enterprise resource planning system (SAP ERP). Given the
significant marketing push by SAP to capture the SME ERP market (SAP, 2007); a
valuable opportunity existed to evaluate such systems in this important new context.
Apart from the contextual importance of the company as an early SAP ERP
small-medium enterprise site, the adoption of a case study approach was also motivated
by the case study providing access to data such as product costs and margins, as well
as sales data. The access to a rich data set, encompassing product level financial data,
not just sales data, was a critical requirement in evaluating the cost of forecast error.
In summary, the proposed research method is a positivist-quantitative case
study, based on Neumans (2000) criteria, described next. The research will test
hypotheses regarding forecasting techniques; measures have been systematically
developed prior to the study (error measures); data are numerical (historical sales,
forecasts, and error measures); procedures are standard and replication is facilitated;
analysis will use statistics, charts, and tables relating to the hypothesis.
Having explained the case study methodology, the next Chapter will explain the
approach to data collection.
87
4.0 DATA COLLECTION

7B
_____________________________________________________________________
The data collection section describes the forecasting models applied, the data
sampling approach, and the method used to adjust the baseline forecasts with event
management.
Seven of the nine available forecast models in SAP were each run using both
default SAP smoothing parameters and fitted smoothing parameters (14 model
combinations). The fitted models applied the same fitted smoothing value to all SKUs in
the respective data sets, not individually fitted parameters for each SKU. The two
ARRSES variants (Constant model with smoothing factor adaptation (1st-order
exponential smoothing) and the trend model (2nd-order exponential smoothing model
with parameter optimization) were also run, but due to the automatic nature of these
models did not allow a fitted comparison to be made. An individual SKU best-fit model
(model 17) and SAPs automatic model selection method (model 18) were also run
along with a Nave1 forecast (model 19) as a benchmark for comparative purposes. All
19 models/combinations were also event management adjusted bringing the total to 38,
as detailed in Table 10.
X
Profile
1
Forecast Model
Constant model
(1st-order exponential smoothing)
Parameters
Alpha 0.2 (SAP default)
Constant model - Fitted

Fitted Alpha
Constant model with smoothing factor

adaptation (1st-order exponential
smoothing)
N/A - Automatic
Moving average model
24 historical values (SAP

default)
88
Moving average model - Fitted
Fitted number of historical

values
Weighted moving average model
Weighting: 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1

(SAP default)
7
8
Weighted moving average model - Fitted

Trend model
Fitted weighting
Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1 (SAP
defaults)
Trend model - Fitted

Fitted Alpha and Beta
10
Trend model
(2nd-order exponential smoothing model)
11
Trend model - Fitted

(2nd-order exponential smoothing model)
Fitted Alpha
12
Trend model
(2nd-order exponential smoothing model
with parameter optimization)
Seasonal model (Winters' method)
N/A Automatic
13
Alpha 0.2, Gamma 0.3 (SAP

defaults)
12 periods per season
14
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Fitted
Fitted Alpha and Gamma

15
Seasonal trend model

(1st-order exponential smoothing model)
Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma

0.3 (SAP defaults)
16
Seasonal trend model - Fitted

(1st-order exponential smoothing model)
17
Individual SKU (combination of best-fit

methods)
18
SAP Automatic Model Selection (with

automatic smoothing factor adjustment to
minimise mean absolute deviation)
Nave1
Profiles 1 to 19 adjusted for planned
promotions (Event management).
19
20-38
Table 10. Forecast Models and Smoothing Parameters

89
Fitted Alpha, Beta, and Gamma

Best Historical Fit
N/A Automatic
N/A
Event Management:
Percentage adjustment
determined by average
historical sales increase during
promotional periods over sales
during non-promotional
periods.
The Individual SKU (model 17, combination of best-fit methods) was derived from
choosing the forecasting model, at SKU level, with the lowest historical MAE over the
fitting/initialization period.
4.1 Sampling
34B
The forecast model/parameter combinations were applied to a stratified random sample

of 50 stock keeping units (SKUs) and their associated historical monthly sales data. The
time series consists of 10 SKUs with 60 months of historical sales data each and 40
SKUs with 24 months of historical sales data each, thereby providing a total historical
data set of 1,560 data points. This ratio of 20% of 60 month SKUs and 80% of 24 month
SKUs reflects the actual mix of active SKU history at total company level. A systematic
random sample was obtained by ranking all products with 24 months of sales data by
annual revenue and selecting every kth product to obtain a representative sample of 40
SKUs. The same sampling procedure was employed to obtain the 10 SKUs with 60
months of history each. The total sample equates to approximately 7% of active SKUs,
1.4% of these with 60 months of history and 5.6% of these with 24 months of history.
The choice of 24 month and 60 month data sets was made on the basis of evaluating
relatively noisy (high random error component) short lifecycle, trend/fashion oriented
products (Table 12. 24 Month History SKUs) and less noisy, longer lifecycle products
X
(Table 13. 60 Month History SKUs). A combined data set description of the time series
X
features is provided in Table 11 which is an adaptation of Adya et al. (2000) time series
features for rule based forecasting. An additional feature category (Commercial
Attributes) and three further features have been included to help aid contextualisation of
the data sets (gross margin, cost of lost sales and inventory carrying charge).
90
Time Series Features

Feature
Categories
Causal forces
Features
Features Description
Unknown
Functional form
Refer to Appendix B
Sales History Linear
Regression and
Autocorrelation (ACF)
graphs to assess
instability criteria
The net directional effect of the principal

factors acting on the series. Growth
exerts an upward force. Decay exerts a
downward force. Supporting forces push
in direction of historical trend. Opposing
forces work against the trend. Regressing
forces work towards a mean. When
uncertain, forces should be unknown.
Multiplicative or Additive - Expected
pattern of the trend of the series.
Cycles expected
Cycles expected
Forecast horizon
24 Month Data Set (12

month hold-out)
Subject to events
Start-up series
Related to other series
Types of data
Regular movement of the series about

the basic trend.
Horizon for which forecasts are being
made.
60 Month Data Set (24

month hold-out)
Subject to events:
Series provides data for a start-up.
Positive values only
Only positive values in time series
No
Bounded values such as percentages

and asymptotes
No Missing observations
No missing observations in the series
Level
Trend
Not Biased
Refer to Appendix B
Regression and
graphs to assess
Level is not biased by any other events.

Trend Direction - Direction of trend after
fitting linear regression to past data.
Length of series
24 Month Data Set

60 Month Data Set
Number of observations in the series.
Monthly
Time interval represented between the

observations.
Autocorrelation - Whether seasonality is
present in the series.
Seasonality
Refer to Appendix B
Regression and
graphs to assess
91
Uncertainty
Refer to Appendix B
Regression and
graphs to assess
Coeff. of variation about trend >0.2 Standard deviation divided by the mean
for the trend adjusted data.
Basic and recent trends not in same
direction
Instability
Refer to Appendix B
Regression and
graphs to assess
Commercial Attributes
Gross margin = 68.4%

average across both data
sets
Irrelevant early data - Early portion of the

series results from a substantially
different underlying process.
Suspicious pattern - Series that show a
substantial change in recent pattern.
Unstable recent trend - Series that show
marked changes in recent trend pattern.
Outliers present - Isolated observation
near a 2 std. deviation band of linear
regress.
Recent run not long - The last six periodto-period movements are not in same
direction.
Near a previous extreme - A last
observation that is 90% more than the
highest or 110% lower than lowest
observation.
Changing basic trend - Underlying trend
that is changing over the long run.
Level discontinuities - Changes in the
level of the series (steps)
Last observation unusual - Last
observation deviates substantially from
previous data.
Product gross margin percentage to
provide indicative SKU value
Cost of lost sales = 50%

for all SKUs in both data
sets
Cost of lost sales (fractional charge of

margin per unit short) in % of unit margin
per annum to provide relative importance
of service level versus inventory carrying
costs
Inventory carrying charge

= 30% per annum for all
SKUs in both data sets
Inventory carrying charge in percentage

of unit cost per annum to provide relative
importance of service level versus
inventory carrying costs
Table 11. Case Study Time Series Features (Adapted from Adya et al., 2000)
92
Summary Statistics:
24 Month History SKUs
Observations
Stock Keeping
(monthly data
Unit
points)
SKU-24-001
24
SKU-24-002
24
SKU-24-003
24
SKU-24-004
24
SKU-24-005
24
SKU-24-006
24
SKU-24-007
24
SKU-24-008
24
SKU-24-009
24
SKU-24-010
24
SKU-24-011
24
SKU-24-012
24
SKU-24-013
24
SKU-24-014
24
SKU-24-015
24
SKU-24-016
24
SKU-24-017
24
SKU-24-018
24
SKU-24-019
24
SKU-24-020
24
SKU-24-021
24
SKU-24-022
24
SKU-24-023
24
SKU-24-024
24
SKU-24-025
24
SKU-24-026
24
SKU-24-027
24
SKU-24-028
24
SKU-24-029
24
SKU-24-030
24
SKU-24-031
24
SKU-24-032
24
SKU-24-033
24
SKU-24-034
24
SKU-24-035
24
SKU-24-036
24
SKU-24-037
24
SKU-24-038
24
SKU-24-039
24
SKU-24-040
24
Averages
Minimum
Unit Sales
4
3
71
74
42
662
13
20
9
17
12
20
11
19
12
31
16
40
18
7
7
35
26
10
10
36
24
22
3
12
15
8
6
23
10
10
11
116
261
242
Table 12. 24 Month History SKUs
93
Maximum
Unit Sales
23
21
366
295
127
1456
79
95
32
91
77
75
31
141
137
145
51
166
81
46
75
157
107
194
98
130
123
114
57
97
68
38
26
79
28
41
42
837
1158
1579
Mean
Unit
Sales
13.86
10.13
176.00
158.25
76.88
1022.20
35.35
45.04
18.27
47.75
33.97
39.54
18.97
64.24
48.71
77.58
30.39
103.72
35.40
19.61
29.46
65.13
54.54
72.04
42.50
66.66
61.90
47.45
17.16
35.50
35.31
18.66
12.18
46.60
17.42
23.93
23.95
536.08
604.51
750.58
115.94
Standard
deviation
of Sales
5.48
4.30
76.40
64.96
29.01
216.66
15.29
21.86
6.69
22.50
15.89
13.82
5.28
32.01
31.51
26.33
10.61
34.99
12.53
9.25
16.33
25.77
19.28
43.00
21.64
22.80
22.87
21.65
12.81
22.30
14.69
7.71
4.77
16.16
5.49
8.81
8.63
236.55
237.42
357.35
44.54
Coefficient of
Variation %
39.5%
42.5%
43.4%
41.0%
37.7%
21.2%
43.3%
48.5%
36.6%
47.1%
46.8%
34.9%
27.8%
49.8%
64.7%
33.9%
34.9%
33.7%
35.4%
47.2%
55.4%
39.6%
35.3%
59.7%
50.9%
34.2%
36.9%
45.6%
74.7%
62.8%
41.6%
41.3%
39.2%
34.7%
31.5%
36.8%
36.0%
44.1%
39.3%
47.6%
42.4%
Summary Statistics:
60 Month History SKUs
Observations
Stock Keeping
(monthly data
Unit
points)
SKU-60-001
60
SKU-60-002
60
SKU-60-003
60
SKU-60-004
60
SKU-60-005
60
SKU-60-006
60
SKU-60-007
60
SKU-60-008
60
SKU-60-009
60
SKU-60-010
60
Averages
Minimum
Unit Sales
23
213
29
137
51
112
266
67
80
31
Maximum
Unit Sales
62
624
97
825
287
268
675
248
260
129
Mean
Unit
Sales
42.30
429.36
63.29
373.92
174.46
200.27
422.43
158.70
178.00
71.37
211.41
Standard
deviation
of Sales
8.68
102.76
15.77
141.34
59.69
37.60
94.70
38.40
38.71
20.53
55.82
Coefficient of
Variation %
20.5%
23.9%
24.9%
37.8%
34.2%
18.8%
22.4%
24.2%
21.7%
28.8%
25.7%
Table 13. 60 Month History SKUs
The naming convention used to identify SKUs, yet maintain commercial

confidentiality is as follows: SKU-24-010 = Stock Keeping Unit - 24 month data set
product number 10. (Refer to Appendix A Data Set Statistics).
The historical sales data are an aggregation of point of sale data from each of the
companys 22 stores. Point of sale data are more representative of true customer
demand, than is warehouse replenishment to stores which is distorted by lot sizing and
store merchandising requirements (H. Lee, Padmanabhan, & Whang, 1997). However,
point of sale data still does not account for lost sales, e.g. due to stock outs. Given that
the determination of demand, not sales is the true aim of sales forecasting it can be said
that the use of historical sales for forecasting is actually a surrogate for actual demand.
In the case study retail setting all sales were transacted in the same period (month) as
recorded inventory movements, i.e. no delayed fulfillment took place.
The historical sales data and forecast values populate an SAP planning table
(S914). In the case of the 60 month series (10 SKUs), the first 34 months of sales history
was used to initialize/fit the forecast methods and the final 24 months to evaluate the
94
accuracy (best-fit) of each forecast model/parameter combination. For the 24 month

series (40 SKUs), the first 10 months of sales history was used to initialise/fit the forecast
methods and the final 12 months used to evaluate the accuracy (best-fit) of each
forecast model/parameter combination. The 12 month evaluation period is referred to as
holdout data. Note: Given that the forecasts are 3-step ahead (to reflect the companys
procurement lead time) and run on the first day of new month, the fitting period ends 2
months prior to the first forecast/holdout period hence the missing 2 month period
described above.
The identification of optimal smoothing parameters was performed in Microsoft
Excel by reproducing each of the exponential smoothing methods and then using
Solver (Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG2) algorithm) to minimize the mean
absolute error (MAE) over the respective initialisation/fitting periods for all products in the
given data set (24 month and 60 month). The resulting optimized parameter models
were then evaluated along with the SAP default parameters so as to provide an
independent and objective evaluation of SAPs default smoothing parameter selections.
The grouped fitting approach was adopted based on the work of Robb and Silver (2002)
to mitigate potential over-fitting with shortening product lifecycles.
The forecast values were then run at fixed periods of three months, being the
companys planning horizon (lead-time) to order and procure product from China.
Following each three month forecast run the next month of historical sales data was
successively applied to the forecast models and a further fixed period of three months
was forecast, thereby providing a single new monthly forecast value three months ahead
(3-step ahead forecast). This iterative process was performed 24 times so as to provide
two years of forecast sales for the 60 month sample and 12 times for the 24 month
sample. This methodology is referred to as a rolling-origin evaluation (Tashman, 2000).
95
4.2 Event Management Adjustment

35B
The event management adjustment of the baseline forecast is based on the

average historical percentage increase of sales during promotional periods versus nonpromotional periods and is therefore a strictly quantitative approach to the adjustment of
the baseline statistical forecasts. As SAPs ERP functionality does not incorporate
regression analysis or intervention analysis, the percentage change is calculated from
simple sales analysis. Historical promotional periods for the company show an average
unit sales increase of 15% and three months of the year show an average decrease of
around 20% of average monthly sales.
These changes in demand only apply to certain SKUs, i.e. SKUs that are actively
promoted. SKUs that show historical sensitivity to promotional activity, which sometimes
change from year to year, are adjusted using the SAP event management transaction
(MC64) by 115% (15% increase) and known slow months are adjusted to 80% (20%
decrease). This method of adjusting for periods of both promotional activity and known
slow periods is simplistic and it should be noted that the average percentages were
arrived at from company total unit sales and are not solely based on the systematic
sample used in this case study.
Having detailed the data collection, the next section presents the results of the
study.
96
5.0 RESULTS
8B
_____________________________________________________________________
The results section commences by detailing the methods used to assess best-fit
then presents the results of the case study in a series of tables with explanations.
Methodologically, in order to assess which forecast model/parameter combination
provides the best-fit, all 12 models were evaluated (38 model/parameter and event
management adjusted variants in total). Best-fit was considered against the following
five criteria, with CFE as the primary measure (See Appendix D Summary Forecast
Error Measures, for the tables that contain the detail of the five forecast error measure
criteria):
1.
Average, across all products for each model, mean absolute error (MAE) for
overall magnitude of error (a standard error measure, i.e. in the base unit of
measure, in this case unit forecast versus unit sales).
MAE =
2.
1 n
et
n t =1
(29)
Average, across all products for each model, mean absolute percentage error
(MAPE) for relative overall fit (a relative error measure).
MAPE =
1 n
PEt
n t =1
Yt Ft
Yt
where PE t =
(30)
100
97
The choice of forecast accuracy measures is based on the widespread use of

these measures in forecasting competitions (particularly the M-Series competitions),
along with their ease of calculation, understanding and interpretation (Makridakis,
1993a). However, the overall fit, weighted by both revenue (revenue weighted mean
absolute percentage error (RW-MAPE)) and margin (product margin contribution, margin
weighted mean absolute percentage error (MW-MAPE)) and cost of forecast error (CFE)
were also applied.
3.
Total, across all products for each model, revenue weighted mean absolute
percentage error (RW-MAPE) for relative overall fit with consideration of product
revenue (financial impact).
n
RW MAPE = MAPE p ( D p / DT )
(31)
t =1
where MAPEP = MAPE for Product p
D p = Dollar demand for Product p
DT = Total dollar demand for all products
4.
Total, across all products for each model, margin weighted mean absolute
percentage error (MW-MAPE) for relative overall fit with consideration of product
margin contribution (financial impact).
n
MW MAPE = MAPE p ( M p / GM T )
t =1
where MAPE p = MAPE for Product p
M p = Margin contribution for Product p
GM T = Gross Margin (margin for all products)

98
(32)
5.
Total, across all products for each model, Cost of Forecast Error (CFE), an
absolute cost derived from MAE. To determine the financial impact of the relative
forecast errors associated with each model a forecast error formula based on
safety stock is estimated as follows:
SS = k R + L
(33)
where SS = safety stock in units
k = safety factor from a table of normal distribution probabilities

(Table 5)
R + L = standard deviation of forecast errors in units over the critical

protection period (review period (R) and the replenishment lead time (L)),
in months.
The standard deviation of forecast errors is calculated as follows:
= / 2 x MAE or an approximation 1.25 x MAE
(34)
where MAE is the mean absolute forecast error
The safety stock calculation ( SS ) along with the standard deviation of forecast errors
over the replenishment lead time ( R + L ) is then used to establish the total forecast
error cost as follows:
CFE = ( SSvr +
B5 M p R + LGu (k )
R
)P
where CFE = annual cost of forecast error in dollars
SS = safety stock in units
v = unit cost, in $/unit

r = inventory carrying charge, in $/$/month
99
(35)
B5 = fractional charge of margin per unit short

M p = product margin in dollars
Gu (k ) = standard unit normal loss function (unit normal distribution)

P = period multiplier to convert from months to year
For the purposes of this case study B5 is set at 50% and r is 2.5% per month (30% per
annum). The setting of B5 at 50% is justified through Corsten and Gruens (2004) study
showing that unavailable products typically result in a loss to the retailer of 40% of sales
(due to out-of-stock products) plus an additional 10% estimate that reflects the loss of
goodwill and the resulting ongoing loss of custom. The 10% component could of course
well be a serious understatement. The setting of r at 2.5% per month (30% per annum)
is considered a reasonable, and possibly conservative, estimate that includes handling
and storage costs, cost of capital and opportunity cost, and the obsolescence that is a
large factor in the companys relatively short lifecycle products. The company
management arbitrarily set the safety factor ( k ) at 1.645 which equates to a P1 service
level of 95% and it is therefore used for this case study. The replenishment lead time (L),
including the review period (R) of one month, is set at 4 months. Lead time variability
also has a very high impact on costs associated with maintaining a high service level.
However, as the aim of this case study is to assess forecast variability then R+L is
considered constant at 4 months. For additional work on the impact of lead time
variability on safety stock see Chopra, Reinhardt, and Dada (2004). Finally, so as to
annualize all costs, the term P is set at 12 (months). Refer to section 3.4 (Cost of
Forecast Error), equations 23-28 for a worked example of the Cost of Forecast Error
(CFE) measure.
100
The results are presented as follows:
Summary tables showing forecast models/profile parameters, and associated

accuracy measures (MAE, MAPE, RW-MAPE, MW-MAPE, and Cost of Forecast
Error), namely:
(a)
SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters (Table 14).
(b)
Baseline Forecasts versus Event Management (EM) Adjusted Forecasts
(Table 15 & Table 16).

X
(c)
Best-fitting Model (Table 17 and Table 18).

X
Tables for each SKU and forecast model combination with mean MAE, MAPE, RWMAPE, MW-MAPE, and CFE for the total hold-out period are shown in Appendix D
Summary Forecast Error Measures. Tables 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 are all derived from the
tables shown in Appendix D.
101
5.1 SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters

36B
Table 14 compares the default SAP smoothing parameters with historically fitted
X
smoothing parameters (or period/weighting parameters in the case of the two moving
average models). Table 14 shows sixteen tabular columns in two sections. The upper
X
section represents the 24 month models and the lower section represents the 60 month
models. The first column specifies the relevant forecast model. Columns two through
eleven contain the following forecast error measures in column order: default MAE,
default MAPE, default revenue weighted MAPE, default margin weighted MAPE, default
cost of forecast error, fitted MAE, fitted MAPE, fitted revenue weighted MAPE, fitted
margin weighted MAPE, fitted cost of forecast error. The final five columns (columns
twelve to sixteen) represent the forecast error measure differences between the SAP
default and fitted smoothing parameters as follows: MAE, MAPE, revenue weighted
MAPE, margin weighted MAPE, cost of forecast error. Statistically significant differences
between forecasts using the SAP default and fitted smoothing parameters are indicated
with an asterisk beside the significant forecast error measure.
It
is
important
to
note
that
fitted
models
that
produced
the
same
smoothing/weighting values as the default have been excluded. In the case of the 24
month models all seasonal and seasonal/trend models were excluded as insufficient
history was available to fit these models. Models that automatically adapt the smoothing
constants, i.e. the constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) with automatic
alpha adaptation and the trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) with automatic
alpha adaptation were also excluded as no comparison can be made.
The 24 month MAE differences range from a 3.76 unit reduction in forecast error to a
0.70 unit increase, MAPE from a 6.87% reduction to a 3.24% increase. Revenue
weighted MAPE from a 7.01% decrease to a 2.34% increase, margin weighted MAPE
102
from a 7.10% decrease to a 2.54% increase, and cost of forecast error from a $3,001
decrease to a $1,014 increase.
The 60 month MAE differences range from a 13.94 unit reduction in forecast
error to a 8.67 unit increase, MAPE from a 8.29% reduction to a 4.54% increase.
Revenue weighted MAPE from a 9.34% decrease to a 5.74% increase, margin weighted
MAPE from a 9.14% decrease to a 5.53% increase, and cost of forecast error from a
$1,046 decrease to a $471 increase.
103
Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters

Baseline Forecasts 24 Month
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing)

Moving Average Model
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing)
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing)
Mean
Default
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
39.38%
39.18%
42.51%
47.02%
Default Cost
of Forecast
Error
Fitted
MAE
Fitted
MAPE
43.33%
42.67%
47.01%
51.45%
Default
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
39.32%
39.00%
42.45%
46.82%
$
$
$
$
22,750
23,347
23,112
25,581
39.14
40.11
39.24
38.22
46.11%
41.90%
42.02%
23,698
39.18
Default
MAE
Default
MAPE
39.33
41.91
38.54
41.98
40.44
Fitted Cost
of Forecast
Error
Comparison - Default versus Fitted

Margin
MAE
MAPE
Reveue
Weighted Weighted
MAPE
MAPE
Cost of
Forecast
Error
46.57%
42.95%
47.79%
44.58%
Fitted
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
41.66%
39.41%
42.29%
39.81%
Fitted
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
41.92%
39.28%
42.53%
39.91%
$
$
$
$
23,763
22,580
24,000
22,580
-0.19
-1.80
0.70
-3.76 *
3.24%
0.28%
0.78%
-6.87%
2.34%
0.41%
-0.16%
-7.01%
2.54%
0.10%
0.02%
-7.10%
$
$
$
$
1,014 *
(767)
888
(3,001) *
45.47%
40.79%
40.91%
23,231
-1.26
-0.64%
-1.11%
-1.11%
(467)
Percentage showing improvement 75.00%
25.00%
50.00%
25.00%
50.00%
* statistically significant at the 0.05 level
Baseline Forecasts 60 Month

Weighted Moving Average Model
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method)
Mean
23.03%
23.24%
22.98%
22.21%
28.58%
25.17%
25.26%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,046
3,164
3,091
3,000
3,913
3,349
3,419
-1.74
-13.94 *
-0.37
-0.83
8.67
-1.86
-0.66
24.35%
22.56%
22.79%
3,283
-1.53
-0.60%
Percentage showing improvement 85.71%
57.14%
Default Cost
of Forecast
Error
Fitted
MAE
Fitted
MAPE
24.45%
31.53%
23.30%
21.51%
24.04%
25.52%
24.35%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,181
4,210
3,105
3,095
3,442
3,448
3,428
34.81
35.93
35.05
34.82
47.85
38.27
39.17
24.96%
23.51%
23.66%
3,416
37.99
36.55
49.87
35.42
35.65
39.18
40.14
39.83
39.52
Comparison - Default versus Fitted

Margin
MAE
MAPE
Reveue
Weighted Weighted
MAPE
MAPE
Fitted
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
21.49%
21.65%
21.43%
20.82%
28.01%
23.18%
22.98%
Default
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
23.13%
30.79%
21.63%
20.78%
22.48%
23.91%
22.93%
Default
MAPE
Fitted Cost
of Forecast
Error
Fitted
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
21.29%
21.45%
21.22%
20.54%
27.98%
22.88%
22.54%
Default
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
23.01%
30.79%
21.40%
20.70%
22.24%
23.68%
22.73%
Default
MAE
-1.42%
-8.29%
-0.32%
0.70%
4.54%
-0.35%
0.92%
-1.72%
-9.34%
-0.18%
-0.16%
5.74%
-0.80%
-0.19%
Cost of
Forecast
Error
-1.65%
-9.14%
-0.20%
0.04%
5.53%
-0.73%
0.06%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
-0.95%
-0.87%
85.71%
57.14%
(135)
(1,046) *
(15)
(96)
471
(99)
(9)
(133)
85.71%
Table 14. SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters

Fitted model comparisons that are superior to the SAP default models are shown with a negative sign, or bracketed in the case of
cost of forecast error, i.e. lower forecast error values being favourable.
104
5.2 Baseline Forecasts versus Event Management Adjusted Forecasts

37B
The results of the baseline forecasts versus event management adjusted

forecasts are shown in Table 15 and Table 16. Table 15 and Table 16 each show
X
sixteen tabular columns. The first column specifies the forecast model. Columns two
through eleven contain the following forecast error measures in column order: baseline
MAE, baseline MAPE, baseline revenue weighted MAPE, baseline margin weighted
MAPE, baseline cost of forecast error, event management adjusted MAE, event
management adjusted MAPE, event management adjusted revenue weighted MAPE,
event management adjusted margin weighted MAPE, and event management adjusted
cost of forecast error. The final five columns (columns twelve to sixteen) represent the
forecast error measure differences between the baseline and event management
adjusted forecasts as follows: MAE, MAPE, revenue weighted MAPE, margin weighted
MAPE, and cost of forecast error. Statistically significant differences between forecasts
using the baseline and event management adjusted forecasts are indicated with an
asterisk beside the significant forecast error measure.
The 24 month MAE differences range from a 0.98 unit reduction in forecast error
to a 3.97 unit increase, MAPE from a 1.08% reduction to a 0.69% increase. Revenue
from a 1.28% decrease to a 1.21% increase, and cost of forecast error from a $605
decrease to a $1,224 increase.
The 60 month MAE differences range from a 1.69 unit reduction in forecast error
to a 1.49 unit increase, MAPE from a 1.36% reduction to a 0.16% increase. Revenue
from a 0.92% decrease to a 0.04% increase, and cost of forecast error from a $128
decrease to a $128 increase.
105
Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted

Baseline
MAE
Forecasts 24 Month
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default)
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation
Moving Average Model 24 Historical Values (SAP Default)
Moving Average Model Historical Values Fitted
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group 1 (SAP default)
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group Fitted
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1 (SAP default)
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha, Beta Fitted
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default)
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default)
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha, Gamma Fitted
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP defau
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha, Beta, Gamma Fitted
Individual SKU Best Historical Fit
SAP Automatic Model Selection SAP Procedure 2
Nave 1
Mean
MAPE
39.33
39.14
39.68
41.91
40.11
39.04
39.04
38.54
39.24
41.98
38.22
51.76
57.54
57.54
66.95
66.95
38.23
37.67
44.16
43.33%
46.57%
49.16%
42.67%
42.95%
46.56%
46.56%
47.01%
47.79%
51.45%
44.58%
67.49%
72.13%
72.13%
83.04%
83.04%
45.21%
45.34%
55.64%
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
39.32%
41.66%
43.11%
39.00%
39.41%
41.75%
41.75%
42.45%
42.29%
46.82%
39.81%
57.10%
68.97%
68.97%
80.00%
80.00%
40.91%
40.07%
48.18%
45.11
54.35%
49.56%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
39.38%
41.92%
43.61%
39.18%
39.28%
41.97%
41.97%
42.51%
42.53%
47.02%
39.91%
57.75%
69.38%
69.38%
80.22%
80.22%
41.05%
40.33%
48.77%
49.81%
Cost of
Forecast
Error
$
22,750
$
23,763
$
24,889
$
23,347
$
22,580
$
23,753
$
23,753
$
23,112
$
24,000
$
25,581
$
22,580
$
32,939
$
34,615
$
34,615
$
39,723
$
39,723
$
23,341
$
22,798
$
27,859
$
27,143
Event Management Adjusted

MAE
MAPE
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
38.68
42.79%
38.47%
38.27
45.94%
40.73%
39.43
49.06%
42.59%
41.65
42.23%
38.43%
39.31
42.39%
38.41%
38.17
45.73%
40.69%
38.17
45.73%
40.69%
37.94
45.92%
41.25%
38.46
46.85%
41.17%
41.18
50.53%
45.59%
37.43
43.88%
38.75%
51.37
67.64%
56.65%
60.47
72.60%
69.81%
60.47
72.60%
69.81%
70.93
83.72%
81.17%
70.93
83.72%
81.17%
40.81
44.88%
41.43%
36.69
44.70%
39.02%
43.91
55.57%
47.58%
45.49
54.03%
49.13%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
38.48%
40.90%
43.01%
38.56%
38.23%
40.83%
40.83%
41.23%
41.36%
45.70%
38.78%
57.27%
70.24%
70.24%
81.43%
81.43%
41.66%
39.22%
48.09%
49.34%
Cost of
Forecast
Error
$
22,256
$
23,226
$
24,599
$
22,968
$
22,032
$
23,148
$
23,148
$
22,579
$
23,516
$
25,009
$
22,024
$
32,630
$
35,458
$
35,458
$
40,947
$
40,947
$
24,023
$
22,224
$
27,522
$
27,038
Percentage showing improvement
Comparison - Baseline versus EM

MAE
MAPE
Reveue
Margin
Weighted Weighted
MAPE
MAPE
-0.65
-0.54%
-0.85%
-0.90%
-0.87
-0.63%
-0.93%
-1.02%
-0.25
-0.10%
-0.51%
-0.60%
-0.26
-0.45%
-0.57%
-0.61%
-0.80
-0.57%
-1.00%
-1.05%
-0.87
-0.83%
-1.06%
-1.14%
-0.87
-0.83%
-1.06%
-1.14%
-0.60
-1.08%
-1.20%
-1.28%
-0.77
-0.94%
-1.13%
-1.17%
-0.80
-0.92%
-1.23%
-1.32%
-0.79
-0.70%
-1.06%
-1.13%
-0.39
0.16%
-0.46%
-0.49%
2.93
0.48%
0.84%
0.86%
2.93
0.48%
0.84%
0.86%
3.97
0.69%
1.17%
1.21%
3.97
0.69%
1.17%
1.21%
2.58
-0.33%
0.52%
0.61%
-0.98
-0.64%
-1.05%
-1.11%
-0.26
-0.07%
-0.59%
-0.67%
0.38
73.68%
-0.32%
73.68%
-0.43%
73.68%
-0.47%
73.68%
Cost of
Forecast
Error
$
(493)
$
(537)
$
(290)
$
(379)
$
(548)
$
(605)
$
(605)
$
(533)
$
(484)
$
(572)
$
(556)
$
(310)
$
843
$
843
$
1,224
$
1,224
$
682
$
(574)
$
(337)
$
(106)
73.68%
Table 15. Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted 24 Month

Event management adjusted models that are superior to the baseline models are shown with a negative sign, or bracketed in the
case of cost of forecast error, i.e. lower forecast error values being favourable.
106
Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted

Baseline
MAE
Forecasts 60 Month
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP defau
Nave 1
Mean
MAPE
36.55
34.81
36.99
49.87
35.93
35.42
35.05
35.65
34.82
39.18
47.85
42.79
40.14
38.27
39.83
39.17
35.40
37.12
39.25
24.45%
23.03%
24.30%
31.53%
23.24%
23.30%
22.98%
21.51%
22.21%
24.04%
28.58%
27.03%
25.52%
25.17%
24.35%
25.26%
24.83%
28.53%
25.02%
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
23.01%
21.29%
22.01%
30.79%
21.45%
21.40%
21.22%
20.70%
20.54%
22.24%
27.98%
25.72%
23.68%
22.88%
22.73%
22.54%
22.63%
27.45%
23.47%
38.64
24.99%
23.35%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
23.13%
21.49%
22.27%
30.79%
21.65%
21.63%
21.43%
20.78%
20.82%
22.48%
28.01%
25.88%
23.91%
23.18%
22.93%
22.98%
22.77%
27.24%
23.63%
23.53%
Cost of
Forecast
Error
$
3,181
$
3,046
$
3,180
$
4,210
$
3,164
$
3,105
$
3,091
$
3,095
$
3,000
$
3,442
$
3,913
$
3,843
$
3,448
$
3,349
$
3,428
$
3,419
$
3,220
$
3,259
$
3,493
$
3,362
Event Management Adjusted

MAE
MAPE
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
35.09
23.14%
22.09%
33.29
21.81%
20.42%
35.98
23.47%
21.40%
49.48
30.55%
30.13%
34.25
22.01%
20.61%
33.73
22.11%
20.52%
33.61
21.88%
20.45%
34.05
20.78%
20.08%
33.92
21.64%
20.05%
37.56
23.10%
21.57%
46.44
27.57%
27.18%
41.68
26.28%
25.15%
39.99
25.36%
23.55%
38.31
25.20%
22.86%
39.84
24.45%
22.76%
39.17
25.42%
22.59%
36.89
23.46%
22.55%
36.13
27.49%
26.63%
39.00
24.72%
23.26%
37.81
24.23%
22.83%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
22.21%
20.62%
21.66%
30.13%
20.82%
20.74%
20.65%
20.14%
20.32%
21.80%
27.19%
25.30%
23.78%
23.16%
22.95%
23.02%
22.50%
26.41%
23.43%
22.99%
Cost of
Forecast
Error
$
3,069
$
2,931
$
3,106
$
4,173
$
3,035
$
2,982
$
2,981
$
2,995
$
2,941
$
3,321
$
3,813
$
3,761
$
3,436
$
3,356
$
3,430
$
3,423
$
3,349
$
3,192
$
3,468
$
3,303
Percentage showing improvement
Comparison - Baseline versus EM

MAE
MAPE
Reveue
Margin
Weighted Weighted
MAPE
MAPE
-1.46
-1.31%
-0.92%
-0.92%
-1.52
-1.21%
-0.87%
-0.87%
-1.01
-0.83%
-0.60%
-0.61%
-0.38
-0.98%
-0.66%
-0.66%
-1.68
-1.23%
-0.83%
-0.83%
-1.69
-1.19%
-0.88%
-0.89%
-1.44
-1.10%
-0.78%
-0.78%
-1.60
-0.73%
-0.62%
-0.64%
-0.89
-0.57%
-0.48%
-0.50%
-1.63
-0.94%
-0.67%
-0.68%
-1.41
-1.01%
-0.81%
-0.82%
-1.11
-0.75%
-0.57%
-0.58%
-0.15
-0.16%
-0.13%
-0.13%
0.04
0.03%
-0.02%
-0.02%
0.01
0.10%
0.03%
0.03%
0.00
0.16%
0.05%
0.04%
1.49
-1.36%
-0.07%
-0.27%
-1.00
-1.04%
-0.82%
-0.83%
-0.25
-0.30%
-0.21%
-0.20%
-0.83
78.95%
-0.76%
84.21%
-0.52%
89.47%
-0.54%
89.47%
Cost of
Forecast
Error
$
(112)
$
(115)
$
(74)
$
(37)
$
(128)
$
(124)
$
(110)
$
(100)
$
(58)
$
(121)
$
(101)
$
(83)
$
(12)
$
6
$
2
$
3
$
128
$
(67)
$
(25)
$
(59)
78.95%
Table 16. Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted 60 Month

Event management adjusted models that are superior to the baseline models are shown with a negative sign, or bracketed in the
case of cost of forecast error, i.e. lower forecast error values being favourable.
107
5.3 Best-fitting Model

38B
To determine best-fit all 38 models and parameter combinations were ranked

based on relative MAE, MAPE, RW-MAPE, MW-MAPE, and cost of forecast error
performance.
Table 17 (24 month models) and Table 18 (60 month models) each show eleven
X
tabular columns. The first column specifies the forecast model. Columns two through six
contain the following forecast error measures for each forecast model in column order:
MAE, MAPE, revenue weighted MAPE, margin weighted MAPE, and cost of forecast
error. The final five columns (columns seven to eleven) show the relative rankings of the
forecast models for MAE, MAPE, revenue weighted MAPE, margin weighted MAPE, and
cost of forecast error. The actual rankings for 24 month models, shown in Table 17, and
X
for 60 month models in Table 18 is based solely on cost of forecast error (CFE).
X
However, rankings for all measures are shown.

The 24 month best-fitting models (Table 11) show a MAE range of 36.69 units to
70.93 units, MAPE of 42.23% to 83.72%, revenue weighted MAPE of 38.41% to 81.17%,
margin weighted MAPE of 38.23% to 81.43%, and cost of forecast error ranging from
$22,024 to $40,947.
The 60 month best-fitting models (Table 12) show a MAE range of 33.29 units to
49.87 units, MAPE of 20.78% to 31.53%, revenue weighted MAPE of 20.05% to 30.79%,
margin weighted MAPE of 20.14% to 30.79%, and cost of forecast error ranging from
$2,931 to $4,210.
108
Best Fitting Model
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
24 Month Models
MAE
MAPE
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted Event Management
Moving Average Model Historical Values Fitted Event Management
SAP Automatic Model Selection SAP Procedure 2 Event Management
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default) Event Management
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1 (SAP default) Event Management
Moving Average Model Historical Values Fitted Baseline
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted Baseline
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default) Baseline
SAP Automatic Model Selection SAP Procedure 2 Baseline
Moving Average Model 24 Historical Values (SAP Default) Event Management
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1 (SAP default) Baseline
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group 1 (SAP default) Event Management
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group Fitted Event Management
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted Event Management
Individual SKU Best Historical Fit Baseline
Moving Average Model 24 Historical Values (SAP Default) Baseline
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha, Beta Fitted Event Management
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group 1 (SAP default) Baseline
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group Fitted Baseline
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted Baseline
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha, Beta Fitted Baseline
Individual SKU Best Historical Fit Event Management
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation Event Management
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation Baseline
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default) Event Management
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default) Baseline
Nave 1 Event Management
Nave 1 Baseline
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation Event Management
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation Baseline
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) Baseline
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha, Gamma Fitted Baseline
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) Event Management
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha, Gamma Fitted Event Management
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) Baseline
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha, Beta, Gamma Fitted Baseline
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) Event Management
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha, Beta, Gamma Fitted Event Management
37.43
39.31
36.69
38.68
37.94
40.11
38.22
39.33
37.67
41.65
38.54
38.17
38.17
38.27
38.23
41.91
38.46
39.04
39.04
39.14
39.24
40.81
39.43
39.68
41.18
41.98
43.91
44.16
51.37
51.76
57.54
57.54
60.47
60.47
66.95
66.95
70.93
70.93
43.88%
42.39%
44.70%
42.79%
45.92%
42.95%
44.58%
43.33%
45.34%
42.23%
47.01%
45.73%
45.73%
45.94%
45.21%
42.67%
46.85%
46.56%
46.56%
46.57%
47.79%
44.88%
49.06%
49.16%
50.53%
51.45%
55.57%
55.64%
67.64%
67.49%
72.13%
72.13%
72.60%
72.60%
83.04%
83.04%
83.72%
83.72%
Table 17. Best-fitting Model - 24 Month
109
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
38.75%
38.41%
39.02%
38.47%
41.25%
39.41%
39.81%
39.32%
40.07%
38.43%
42.45%
40.69%
40.69%
40.73%
40.91%
39.00%
41.17%
41.75%
41.75%
41.66%
42.29%
41.43%
42.59%
43.11%
45.59%
46.82%
47.58%
48.18%
56.65%
57.10%
68.97%
68.97%
69.81%
69.81%
80.00%
80.00%
81.17%
81.17%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
38.78%
38.23%
39.22%
38.48%
41.23%
39.28%
39.91%
39.38%
40.33%
38.56%
42.51%
40.83%
40.83%
40.90%
41.05%
39.18%
41.36%
41.97%
41.97%
41.92%
42.53%
41.66%
43.01%
43.61%
45.70%
47.02%
48.09%
48.77%
57.27%
57.75%
69.38%
69.38%
70.24%
70.24%
80.22%
80.22%
81.43%
81.43%
Cost of
Rank MAE
Forecast Error
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
22,024
22,032
22,224
22,256
22,579
22,580
22,580
22,750
22,798
22,968
23,112
23,148
23,148
23,226
23,341
23,347
23,516
23,753
23,753
23,763
24,000
24,023
24,599
24,889
25,009
25,581
27,522
27,859
32,630
32,939
34,615
34,615
35,458
35,458
39,723
39,723
40,947
40,947
2
17
1
12
4
21
7
18
3
24
11
5
5
9
8
25
10
13
13
15
16
22
19
20
23
26
27
28
29
30
31
31
33
33
35
35
37
37
Rank
MAPE
7
2
9
4
15
5
8
6
12
1
21
13
13
16
11
3
20
17
17
19
22
10
23
24
25
26
27
28
30
29
31
31
33
33
35
35
37
37
Rank RW- Rank MWMAPE

MAPE
4
1
6
3
16
8
9
7
10
2
22
11
11
13
14
5
15
19
19
18
21
17
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
31
33
33
35
35
37
37
4
1
6
2
15
7
9
8
10
3
21
11
11
13
14
5
16
19
19
18
22
17
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
31
33
33
35
35
37
37
Rank
Cost
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12
14
15
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
31
33
33
35
35
37
37
Best Fitting Model
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
60 Month Models
MAE
MAPE
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted Event Management
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha, Beta Fitted Event Management
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group Fitted Event Management
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group 1 (SAP default) Event Management
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1 (SAP default) Event Management
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha, Beta Fitted Baseline
Moving Average Model Historical Values Fitted Event Management
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted Baseline
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default) Event Management
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group Fitted Baseline
Trend model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1 (SAP default) Baseline
Weighted Moving Average Model Weighting Group 1 (SAP default) Baseline
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation Event Management
Moving Average Model Historical Values Fitted Baseline
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation Baseline
Constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default) Baseline
SAP Automatic Model Selection SAP Procedure 2 Event Management
Individual SKU Best Historical Fit Baseline
SAP Automatic Model Selection SAP Procedure 2 Baseline
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default) Event Management
Individual SKU Best Historical Fit Event Management
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha, Gamma Fitted Baseline
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha, Gamma Fitted Event Management
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha, Beta, Gamma Fitted Baseline
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha, Beta, Gamma Fitted Event Management
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) Baseline
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) Event Management
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) Event Management
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha 0.2 (SAP default) Baseline
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) Baseline
Nave 1 Event Management
Nave 1 Baseline
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation Event Management
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted Event Management
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Automatic Alpha Adaptation Baseline
Trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) Alpha Fitted Baseline
Moving Average Model 24 Historical Values (SAP Default) Event Management
Moving Average Model 24 Historical Values (SAP Default) Baseline
33.29
33.92
33.61
33.73
34.05
34.82
34.25
34.81
35.09
35.05
35.65
35.42
35.98
35.93
36.99
36.55
36.13
35.40
37.12
37.56
36.89
38.27
38.31
39.17
39.17
39.83
39.84
39.99
39.18
40.14
39.00
39.25
41.68
46.44
42.79
47.85
49.48
49.87
21.81%
21.64%
21.88%
22.11%
20.78%
22.21%
22.01%
23.03%
23.14%
22.98%
21.51%
23.30%
23.47%
23.24%
24.30%
24.45%
27.49%
24.83%
28.53%
23.10%
23.46%
25.17%
25.20%
25.26%
25.42%
24.35%
24.45%
25.36%
24.04%
25.52%
24.72%
25.02%
26.28%
27.57%
27.03%
28.58%
30.55%
31.53%
Reveue
Weighted
MAPE
20.42%
20.05%
20.45%
20.52%
20.08%
20.54%
20.61%
21.29%
22.09%
21.22%
20.70%
21.40%
21.40%
21.45%
22.01%
23.01%
26.63%
22.63%
27.45%
21.57%
22.55%
22.88%
22.86%
22.54%
22.59%
22.73%
22.76%
23.55%
22.24%
23.68%
23.26%
23.47%
25.15%
27.18%
25.72%
27.98%
30.13%
30.79%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
20.62%
20.32%
20.65%
20.74%
20.14%
20.82%
20.82%
21.49%
22.21%
21.43%
20.78%
21.63%
21.66%
21.65%
22.27%
23.13%
26.41%
22.77%
27.24%
21.80%
22.50%
23.18%
23.16%
22.98%
23.02%
22.93%
22.95%
23.78%
22.48%
23.91%
23.43%
23.63%
25.30%
27.19%
25.88%
28.01%
30.13%
30.79%
Cost of
Rank MAE
Forecast Error
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2,931
2,941
2,981
2,982
2,995
3,000
3,035
3,046
3,069
3,091
3,095
3,105
3,106
3,164
3,180
3,181
3,192
3,220
3,259
3,321
3,349
3,349
3,356
3,419
3,423
3,428
3,430
3,436
3,442
3,448
3,468
3,493
3,761
3,813
3,843
3,913
4,173
4,210
1
4
2
3
5
8
6
7
10
9
13
12
15
14
19
17
16
11
20
21
18
22
23
25
26
29
30
31
27
32
24
28
33
35
34
36
37
38
Rank
MAPE
4
3
5
7
1
8
6
10
12
9
2
14
16
13
18
21
33
23
35
11
15
25
26
27
29
19
20
28
17
30
22
24
31
34
32
36
37
38
Rank RW- Rank MWMAPE

MAPE
3
1
4
5
2
6
7
10
16
9
8
11
12
13
15
26
33
21
35
14
19
25
24
18
20
22
23
29
17
30
27
28
31
34
32
36
37
38
3
2
4
5
1
8
7
10
15
9
6
11
13
12
16
24
33
19
35
14
18
26
25
22
23
20
21
29
17
30
27
28
31
34
32
36
37
38
Rank
Cost
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
Table 18. Best-fitting Model - 60 Month
The next Chapter analyses both the financial impact and statistical significance of the results in relation to the research questions.
110
6.0 ANALYSIS
9B
_____________________________________________________________________
This Chapter analyses the results of the case study in relation to the research
questions presented in Chapter 3.0 (Methodology). The primary objective of this case
study is to identify and evaluate the SAP sales forecasting method that provides the
best-fit for the companys sales forecasting requirements, taking into consideration the
impact of fitting, event management adjustment, and the commercial importance of
forecast errors.
As stated in the introduction, the research approach detailed in the preceding
sections can serve as a template for businesses wishing to evaluate their ERP based
forecasting systems and gain higher levels of customer service while minimising
inventory holding cost. However, the results and analysis are case specific.
To reiterate from Chapter 4.0 (Data Collection), the time series consist of 10
SKUs with 60 months of historical sales data each and 40 SKUs with 24 months of
historical sales data each, equating to approximately 7% of active SKUs held by the
company. To arrive at a total company cost of forecast error the cost of each model has
therefore been multiplied by 14.285 to extrapolate the 7% sample to 100%. The average
total inventory holding cost to the company is approximately $4,000,000 New Zealand
dollars with sales of $24,000,000..
Tests for statistical significance are applied as follows:
(a) Default versus fitted smoothing parameters: Matched t-test applied to MAE and
CFE (Table 19 and Table 20)
X
(b) Baseline forecasts versus event management adjusted forecasts: Matched t-test
applied to MAE and CFE (Table 21 and Table 22)
X
(c) Best-fitting Method: ANOVA (repeated measures) applied to MAE and CFE
(Table 23 and Table 24)
X
(d) Coefficient of determination (r2) applied to ranked forecast error measures (Table
X
25 and Table 26)

X
Significant results for Tables 13, 14, 15, and 16 are shown against a Bonferroni
adjustment, i.e. p<0.05 is divided by the total number of applicable tests. The Bonferroni
adjustment ensures multiple tests remain statistically significant by reducing the p value
(Moore & McCabe, 1993).
112

39B
In the case of the 24 month models (Table 14. SAP Default versus Fitted
X
Smoothing Parameters) historical fitting outperformed the SAP default in 75.00% of

X
cases (3 out of the 4 models) based on MAE, 25.00% of cases for MAPE, 50.00% of
cases for RW-MAPE, 25.00% of cases for MW-MAPE, and 50.00% of cases for Cost of
Forecast Error. The overall average improvement across all products was -1.26 (units)
for MAE, -0.64% for MAPE, -1.11% for RW-MAPE, -1.11% for MW-MAPE, and a cost of
forecast error reduction of $467.
The mean fitted improvement for all applicable 24 month models based on total
cost of forecast error was 2.01% (average total cost of forecast error of $23,698 for
SAP default versus $23,231 for fitted models) and for MAE was 3.22%.
For the 60 month models (Table 14. SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing
X
Parameters) historical fitting outperformed the SAP default in 85.71% of cases (6 out of
X
the 7 models) based on MAE, 57.14% of cases for MAPE, 85.71% of cases for RWMAPE, 57.14% of cases for MW-MAPE, and 85.71% of cases for Cost of Forecast Error.
The overall average improvement across all products was -1.53 (units) for MAE, -0.60%
for MAPE, -0.95% for RW-MAPE, -0.87% for MW-MAPE, and a cost of forecast error
reduction of $133.
The mean fitted improvement for all 60 month models based on total cost of
forecast error was 4.04% (average cost of forecast error of $3,416 for SAP default
versus $3283 for fitted models) and for MAE was also 4.04%.
113
The matched t-test was used to determine the statistical significance of the
applicable models by comparing the SKU level MAE and CFE differences between
default smoothing parameters and fitted smoothing parameters. Significant results are
shown against a Bonferroni adjustment, i.e. significant at the p<0.0125 for Table 13 and
significant at the p<0.007142857 for Table 14. The Bonferroni adjustment ensures
multiple tests remain statistically significant by reducing the p value.
Mean Absolute Error
Default versus Fitted Matched t-test for 24 Month Models

Siginifcant at the 0.0125 level (equivalent to p<0.05 for a single t-test)

Cost of Forecast Error
p value
Significant
p value
Significant
0.346
0.139
0.312
<0.000
No
No
No
Yes
0.007
0.074
0.015
<0.000
Yes
No
No
Yes
Models
The matched t-test of default versus fitted smoothing parameters for 24 month
models (Table 19) was found to be statistically significant for one model based on MAE
X
(trend model 2nd order exponential smoothing). Two of the four models (constant model
1st order and trend model 2nd order) were found to be significant based on cost of
forecast error.
Mean Absolute Error
Default versus Fitted Matched t-test for 60 Month Models


p value
Significant
p value
Significant
0.012
0.001
0.147
0.325
0.087
0.035
0.317
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
0.018
0.001
0.358
0.238
0.040
0.063
0.472
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Models
The matched t-test of default versus fitted smoothing parameters for 60 month
models (Table 20) was found to be statistically significant for the moving average model
X
based on both MAE and CFE.
114

40B
In the case of the 24 month models (Table 15), event management adjustment
X
outperformed baseline forecasts in 73.68% of cases (14 out of the 19 models) based on
MAE, MAPE, RW-MAPE, MW-MAPE, and cost of forecast error. The overall average
comparisons were +0.38 (units) for MAE (an unfavorable result for event management),
-0.32% for MAPE, -0.43% for RW-MAPE, -0.47% for MW-MAPE, and a cost of forecast
error reduction of $106 across all models.
The mean event management adjusted improvement for all 24 month models
based on total cost of forecast error was 0.39% (average cost of forecast error of
$27,143 for baseline forecasts versus $27,038 for event management adjusted
forecasts) and for MAE was -0.84% (unfavorable).
For the 60 month models (Table 10) event management adjustment
outperformed the baseline forecasts in 78.95% of cases (15 of the 19 models) based on
MAE, 84.21% of cases for MAPE, 89.47% of cases for RW-MAPE, 89.47% of cases for
MW-MAPE, and 78.95% of cases for cost of forecast error. The overall average
improvements were -0.83 (units) for MAE, -0.76% for MAPE, -0.52% for RW-MAPE, 0.54% for MW-MAPE, and a cost of forecast error reduction of $59 across all models.
The mean event management adjusted improvement for all 60 month models based on
total cost of forecast error was 1.79% (average cost of forecast error of $3,363 for
baseline forecasts versus $3,303 for event management adjusted forecasts) and for
MAE was 2.18%.
The matched t-test was used to determine the statistical significance of the
applicable models by comparing the SKU level MAE and CFE differences between
baseline and event management adjusted forecasts for adjusted SKUs only (18 SKUs
(45%) of the 24 month data set and 3 SKUs (30%) of the 60 month data set). Significant
results are shown against a Bonferroni adjustment, i.e. significant at the p< 0.002631579
115
for both Table 15 and Table 16. The Bonferroni adjustment ensures multiple tests remain
statistically significant by reducing the p value.
24 Month Models
Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted Matched T-Test
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default)
Nave 1
Mean Absolute Error

p value
p value
Significant
Significant
0.266
No
0.102
No
0.190
No
0.074
No
0.427
No
0.265
No
0.382
No
0.157
No
0.295
No
0.138
No
0.204
No
0.060
No
0.204
No
0.060
No
0.347
No
0.140
No
0.284
No
0.119
No
0.311
No
0.135
No
0.277
No
0.115
No
0.342
No
0.187
No
0.037
No
0.062
No
0.037
No
0.062
No
0.056
No
0.052
No
0.056
No
0.052
No
0.150
No
0.189
No
0.212
No
0.079
No
0.406
No
0.187
No
In relation to 24 month models the matched t-test of baseline forecasts versus
event management adjusted forecasts (Table 21) was not found to be statistically
X
significant.
60 Month Models
Baseline versus Event Management Adjusted Matched T-Test
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters' method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default)
Mean Absolute Error

p value
p value
Significant
Significant
0.077
No
0.025
No
0.082
No
0.030
No
0.105
No
0.051
No
0.049
No
0.089
No
0.081
No
0.028
No
0.102
No
0.049
No
0.078
No
0.026
No
0.195
No
0.179
No
0.165
No
0.134
No
0.087
No
0.041
No
0.115
No
0.067
No
0.088
No
0.055
No
0.294
No
0.317
No
0.431
No
0.389
No
0.480
No
0.433
No
0.497
No
0.449
No
0.160
No
0.123
No
0.138
No
0.110
No
0.216
No
0.193
No
For the 60 month models the matched t-test of baseline forecast versus event
management adjusted (Table 22) was not found to be statistically significant.
X
116

41B
For the 24 month models (Table 17) the least cost of forecast error model at
X
$22,024 was the trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) with alpha fitted and
event management. The second best performer was the moving average historical
values fitted and event management. It is notable that although the moving average
produced the second least cost forecast it ranked 17th out of 38 based on MAE. The
moving average model was subject to large deviations on five SKUs due to notable
trends and inherent lag, which resulted in the poor MAE rating. Although due to the
relative margin contributions of the high trend SKUs the model was not negatively
impacted on a cost basis. See Appendix B Sales History Linear Regression and
Autocorrelation (ACF) graphs, specifically SKU-24-010, SKU-24-018, SKU-24-030, SKU24-039, and SKU-24-040).
The worst performing 24 month models, based on a forecast error cost of
$40,947, were the seasonal trend (Holt-Winters method) with alpha 0.2, beta 0.1, and
gamma 0.3 (SAP defaults) combined with event management and the seasonal trend
(Holt-Winters method) with alpha, beta, and gamma fitted combined with event
management. The same two seasonal trend models also ranked last at 37 equal against
all other performance measures. Twenty six of the thirty eight 24 month models
outperformed the two nave model variants (ranked 27 and 28) based on cost. The cost
of forecast error range from the best performing model to the worst was $22,024 (trend
model (2nd order exponential smoothing) with alpha fitted and event management) to
$40,947 (both seasonal trend models (Holt-Winters method) with event management).
This range equates to the best performing model operating at 53.7% of the cost of the
worst performing models.
For the 60 month models (Table 18) the best performing model, based on cost of
X
forecast error of $2,931 was the constant model (1st order exponential smoothing), with
117
alpha fitted and event management. The worst performing 60 month model was the
moving average model with 24 historical values (SAP default) baseline with a cost of
forecast error of $4,210. Thirty of the thirty eight 60 month models outperformed the two
nave benchmark model variants (ranked 31 and 32) based on cost. The cost of forecast
error range from the best performing model to the worst was $2,931 (constant model (1st
order exponential smoothing) alpha fitted and event management) to $4,210 (moving
average model 24 historical values (SAP default) baseline). This range equates to the
best performing model operating at 69.6% of the cost of the worst performing model.
Note: Differences between the rankings based on the five performance measures are
explored in section 7.4 (Forecast Error Measures).
Appendix
(Model
Fitting
Parameters)
provides
smoothing/weighting
parameters and details of the SAP automatic model selection parameters. It can be
seen from Appendix C that the SAP automatic model selection SAP procedure 2 has
indeed selected varying models and smoothing parameter combinations based on tests
of trend, seasonality, and MAE in the historical sales data set.
Extrapolated forecast error cost curves are shown in Figure 15 (24 Month),
X
Figure 16 (60 Month) and Figure 17 (combined 24 month and 60 month data set). Only
X
the best performing model from each category is shown, i.e. constant, trend, seasonal,
seasonal trend, individual SKU best historical fit, SAP automatic model selection, and
the nave1 as the benchmark model. It is important to note that the cost curves have
been extrapolated to reflect the total costs associated with forecast error over the
companys entire product portfolio. To recapitulate, the time series consists of 10 SKUs
with 60 months of historical sales data each and 40 SKUs with 24 months of historical
sales data each, equating to approximately 7% of active SKUs. To arrive at a total
118
company cost of forecast error the cost of each model has therefore been multiplied by
14.285 to extrapolate the 7% sample to 100%.
Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves - 24 Month Models
(Best Performing Models by Category)
$530,000
$520,000
Moving Average Model Historical Values

Fitted 24 monthEM
$510,000
$500,000
$490,000
$480,000
Trend model (2nd order exponential

smoothing) Alpha Fitted 24 monthEM
$470,000
$460,000
$450,000
$440,000
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha

0.2, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default) 24 month
Forecast Error Cost
$430,000
$420,000
$410,000
$400,000
Seasonal Trend Model (Holt-Winters'

method) Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3
(SAP default) 24 month
$390,000
$380,000
$370,000
$360,000
Individual SKU Best Historical Fit 24 month
$350,000
$340,000
$330,000
$320,000
SAP Automatic Model Selection SAP

Procedure 2 24 monthEM
$310,000
$300,000
$290,000
Nave 1 T+3 24 month
$280,000
$270,000
$260,000
$250,000
4.00
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Service Factor (k)
Figure 15. Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves - 24 Month Models
119
Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves - 60 Month Models

$60,000
Constant model (1st order exponential
smoothing) Alpha Fitted 60 monthEM
Trend model (1st order exponential

smoothing) Alpha, Beta Fitted 60 monthEM
Forecast Error Cost
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha,

Gamma Fitted 60 month

method) Alpha, Beta, Gamma Fitted 60
month
$50,000
Individual SKU Best Historical Fit 60 month

Procedure 2 60 monthEM
Nave 1 T+3 60 month
$40,000
4.00
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Service Factor (k)
Figure 16. Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves - 60 Month Models

Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves - 24 and 60 Month Models Combined
$600,000
$590,000
Moving Average Model Historical Values
Fitted EM
$580,000
$570,000
$560,000
$550,000
Trend model (2nd order exponential

smoothing) Alpha Fitted EM
$540,000
$530,000
$520,000
$510,000
Seasonal model (Winters' method) Alpha,

Gamma Fitted
Forecast Error Cost
$500,000
$490,000
$480,000
$470,000

method) Alpha, Beta, Gamma Fitted
$460,000
$450,000
$440,000
$430,000
Individual SKU Best Historical Fit EM
$420,000
$410,000
$400,000
$390,000

Procedure 2 EM
$380,000
$370,000
$360,000
$350,000
Nave 1 T+3
$340,000
$330,000
$320,000
4.00
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Service Factor (k)
Figure 17. Combined Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves
120
The 24 month cost curves show the trend model (2nd order exponential
smoothing) alpha fitted and EM as the least cost at $287,922, followed by moving
average model historical values fitted and EM at $288,860 (+0.32% higher than the least
cost model), SAP automatic model selection SAP procedure and EM at $289,598
(+0.58%), individual sku best historical fit baseline at $304,146 (+5.33%), nave1
baseline at $360,474 (+20.13%), seasonal model (Winters' method) alpha 0.2, gamma
0.3 (SAP default) baseline at $450,786 (+36.13%), and finally the seasonal trend model
(Holt-Winters' method) alpha 0.2, beta 0.1, gamma 0.3 (SAP default) baseline at
$518,407 (+44.46%) being the most costly model.
The 60 month cost curves show the constant model (1st order exponential
smoothing) alpha fitted and EM at $41,391, followed by trend model (1st order
exponential smoothing) alpha, beta fitted and EM at $41,520 (+0.31% higher than the
least cost model), SAP automatic model selection SAP procedure 2 and EM at
$45,182 (+8.38%), individual sku best historical fit baseline at $45,511 (+9.05%),
seasonal model (Winters' method) alpha, gamma fitted baseline at $47,278 (+12.45%),
seasonal trend model (Holt-Winters' method) alpha 0.2, beta 0.1, gamma 0.3 (SAP
default) baseline at $48,220 (+14.16%), and nave1 baseline at $49,352 (+16.13%)
being the most costly model using the 60 month data set.
The combined (Figure 17. Combined Extrapolated Forecast Error Cost Curves)
X
cost curves show the moving average model historical values fitted and EM at $332,532,
SAP automatic model selection SAP procedure 2 and EM at $335,736 (+0.95%), trend
model (2nd order exponential smoothing) alpha fitted and EM at $342,932 (+3.03%),
individual sku best historical fit and EM at $360,803 (+7.83%), nave1 baseline at
$410,782 (+19.04%), seasonal model (Winters' method) alpha, gamma fitted baseline at
$498,939 (+33.35%), and the seasonal trend model (Holt-Winters' method) alpha 0.2,
beta 0.1, gamma 0.3 (SAP default) baseline at $567,478 (+41.40%). The cost curves
121
also demonstrate that the lowest cost is achieved by a service level of approximately
98% ( k 2.0) as opposed to the 95% service level ( k 1.6) used in determining the
costs of forecast error in Table 17 and Table 18. The difference in service level also
X
accounts for the slight change in model ranking by cost of forecast error, i.e. cost curve
results versus best-fit tables (Table 17 and Table 18). The high service level reflects the
X
high margins (average SKU margin of 68.4%) associated with the case studys data set
and as such is not to be taken as a generalisable finding.
Repeated Measures ANOVA

P value
P value summary
Are means signif. different? (P < 0.05)
Number of groups
F
R squared
Was the pairing significantly effective?
R squared
F
P value
P value summary
Is there significant matching? (P < 0.05)
MAE 24 Month
P<0.0001
***
Yes
38
6.683
0.1463
0.8776
310.8
P<0.0001
***
Yes
ANOVA Table
Treatment (between columns)
Individual (between rows)
Residual (random)
Total
SS
df
164800
8078000
961600
9205000

P value
P value summary
Number of groups
F
R squared
CFE 24 Month
P<0.0001
***
Yes
38
13.61
0.2587

R squared
F
P value
P value summary
ANOVA Table
Residual (random)
Total
MS
37
39
1443
1519
4454
207100
666.4
0.7655
163
P<0.0001
***
Yes
SS
df
35210000
4.44E+08
1.01E+08
5.81E+08
MS
37
951600
39 11400000
1443
69920
1519
Table 23. Repeated Measures ANOVA for 24 Month Models
122

P value
P value summary
Number of groups
F
R squared
R squared
F
P value
P value summary
MAE 60 Month
P<0.0001
***
Yes
38
2.573
0.2224
0.8713
322
P<0.0001
***
Yes
ANOVA Table
Residual (random)
Total
SS
df
MS

P value
P value summary
Number of groups
F
R squared
CFE 60 Month
P<0.0001
***
Yes
38
3.775
0.2955

R squared
F
P value
P value summary
6773
206100
23690
236600
37
9
333
379
183.1
22900
71.14
ANOVA Table
Residual (random)
Total
0.9496
989.9
P<0.0001
***
Yes
SS
df
395900
25250000
943800
26590000
MS
37
9
333
379
10700
2806000
2834
Table 24. Repeated Measures ANOVA for 60 Month Models
An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed at SKU level across all models
for MAE and forecast error cost and found to be highly significant (p<0.0001) for both the
24 month and 60 month series (Table 23 and Table 24).
X
123
6.4 Forecast Error Measures

42B
Table 25 (24 month data set) and Table 26 (60 month data set) detail the
X
goodness of fit statistics for ranked MAE, MAPE, RW-MAPE, and MW-MAPE against
cost of forecast error. Corresponding charts are shown in Figure 18 (24 month data set)
X
and Figure 19 (60 month data set).

X
In the case of the 24 month data set the r2 of the ranked MAE is the lowest
correlation at 0.7578. However, for the 60 month data set the r2 of the ranked MAE is
found to have the highest correlation at 0.9623. Although, as can be seen in Figure 18
X
(24 month data set) and Figure 19 (60 month data set) a high degree of deviation from
X
the ranked cost line applies to all error measures. In the case of the three MAPE variants
(MAPE, RW-MAPE, and MW-MAPE) MW-MAPE has the highest r2 for both the 24
month data set (r2=0.9321) and the 60 month data set (r2=0.9173) demonstrating a
higher correlation with CFE than MAPE and RW-MAPE.
24 Month Models
Goodness of Fit
r
Sy.x
Is slope significantly non-zero?
F
DFn, DFd
P value
Deviation from zero?
Data
Number of X values
Maximum number of Y replicates
Total number of values
Number of missing values
Rank MAE
Rank MAPE
0.7578
5.492
0.9089
3.361
112.6
1.000, 36.00
< 0.0001
Significant
Rank RW-MAPE
0.9196
3.156
359.3
1.000, 36.00
< 0.0001
Significant
38
1
38
0
Table 25. Error Measure Correlation (24 Month)
124
0.9321
2.9
411.8
1.000, 36.00
< 0.0001
Significant
38
1
38
0
Rank MW-MAPE
494.4
1.000, 36.00
< 0.0001
Significant
38
1
38
0
38
1
38
0
60 Month Models
Rank MAE
Goodness of Fit
r
Sy.x
Is slope significantly non-zero?
F
DFn, DFd
P value
Deviation from zero?
Data
Number of X values
Maximum number of Y replicates
Total number of values
Number of missing values
Rank MAPE
0.9623
2.188
0.8886
3.76
918.5
1.000, 36.00
< 0.0001
Significant
Rank RW-MAPE
0.9131
3.321
287.2
1.000, 36.00
< 0.0001
Significant
38
1
38
0
Rank MW-MAPE
0.9173
3.24
378.4
1.000, 36.00
< 0.0001
Significant
38
1
38
0
399.4
1.000, 36.00
< 0.0001
Significant
38
1
38
0
38
1
38
0
Table 26. Error Measure Correlation (60 Month)
Correlation of Ranked Measures - 24 Month Models

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Rank MAE
Rank MAPE
Rank RW-MAPE
Rank MW-MAPE
Figure 18. Correlation of Ranked Measures (24 Month)
125
Rank Cost
Correlation of Ranked Measures - 60 Month Models

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Rank MAE
Rank MAPE
Rank RW-MAPE
Rank MW-MAPE
Rank Cost
Figure 19. Correlation of Ranked Measures (60 Month)

Mean Absolute Error versus Cost of Forecast Error
(constant model, 1st order exponential smoothing, fitted with event management)
300.0
250.0
R2 = 0.7277
MAE
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
$-
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00

MAE
Linear (MAE)
Figure 20. Mean Absolute Error versus Cost of Forecast Error
126
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
Figure 20 provides a clear example of the deviations of MAE versus Cost of

X
Forecast Error (CFE). This example uses the constant model (1st order exponential
smoothing) fitted with event management adjustment, applied to all 24 month SKUs.
The analysis found the fitting of forecast smoothing parameters using historical
data and the differences between forecasting models (best-fit) to be statistically
significant. The analysis also supports the evaluation of sales forecasts with cost of
forecast error (CFE) as a more commercially useful measure than the widely adopted
mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) measures.
Event management adjustment of baseline statistical forecasts was not found to be
statistically significant. The next Chapter discusses the analysis and draws conclusions.
127
7.0 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

10B
_____________________________________________________________________
This Chapter discusses the results and analysis relating them to prior work and
ERP forecasting practice and then makes conclusions regarding each of the four
research questions. The conclusions should be viewed as case specific and reflect the
particular time series characteristics, costs, and margins of the company in question.

43B
The first research question concerned the performance of the SAP default
smoothing parameters compared with fitted smoothing parameters. Based on the
matched t-test the difference between default and fitted smoothing parameters was
statistically significant based on both MAE and CFE (applying a Bonferroni adjustment).
In addition to statistical significance, there was an average cost of forecast error
reduction of $467 for the 24 month models and an average cost of forecast error
reduction of $133 for the 60 month models.
Both the 24 month and 60 month data set were relatively noisy (containing a high
degree of random error) with a coefficient of variation of 42.4% for the 24 month data set
and 25.7% for the 60 month data set (See Appendix A Data Set Statistics). This
relatively high level of variation could well be responsible for the varying performance of
default versus fitted models.
In reviewing the model fitting parameters (Appendix C), in the majority of cases
(73%), across both the 24 month and 60 month data sets, the fitted models used a
higher smoothing parameter (more responsive to recent history) than the SAP default.
The higher smoothing parameters are likely due to the models responding to trend in the
data set (Silver, Pyke and Peterson, 1998, p. 107) (refer to Appendix B).
128
Such relatively high smoothing parameters have been reported in the literature
with other studies (Chatfield, 1978; Makridakis et al., 1982) also showing relatively high
fitted parameters, i.e. >0.3. Gardner (1985) states that there is no evidence to support a
restricted range of smoothing parameters and that parameters should be estimated from
the data. The SAP default smoothing parameters provide a relatively high degree of
smoothing, i.e. low parameters values, and with the exception of the automatic alpha
adaptation models and SAP automatic model selection procedure, are arbitrary in
nature.
The individual SKU best historical fit method was ranked 15 out of 38 for the 24
month models (Table 11) and 18 out of 38 for the 60 month models (Table12), indicating
that such a method may have been subject to over-fitting (Narayan Pant & Starbuck,
1990). The individual SKU best historical fit method was based on the best historical fit
at SKU level as opposed to fit based on the entire data set for the other fitted models.
With shortening product life-cycles, the fitting of model parameters over entire groups is
suggested by Robb and Silver (2002) to mitigate such potential over-fitting. Also, Fildes
et al. (1998) recommend that parameters be re-optimized each time forecasts are made.
The overall conclusion, with respect to research question one, is that the SAP
default parameters perform relatively well, but statistically significant gains were
achieved from fitting models to the particular historical data sets used in this case study.
In terms of effect size, i.e. commercial impact based on cost of forecast error, the mean
improvement of fitting models was 2.01% for the 24 month data set and 4.04% for the 60
month data set. The potential benefit of fitting model parameters, extrapolated to total
company inventory, represents 0.27% of total inventory value ($4,000,000), or $10,929.
(Average extrapolated baseline cost of forecast error is $451,606 multiplied by the
weighted average fitting improvement 2.42% (2.01% improvement for 24 month data set
(80% of sample) and 4.04% improvement for 60 month data set (20% of data)).
129
In consideration of both the statistical significance and effect size (dollar

improvement), based on this particular data set, it is suggested that smoothing
parameters should be fitted to the case study historical data set to provide statistically
significant gains in forecast accuracy.
Research Question 1: Do the SAP default forecast model
Findings
smoothing parameters provide the Best-fit forecast for The

Company?
H10:
There is no statistically significant difference between the
Null Hypothesis
SAP default smoothing parameters and fitted smoothing
Rejected
parameters, for any of the applicable forecasting models, as

measured by the means of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAE).
H1A:
Fitted
smoothing
parameters
produce
statistically
significant better forecast than the SAP default parameters

based on Mean Absolute Deviation (MAE), for any of the
applicable forecasting models.
H20:
There is no statistically significant difference between the
Null Hypothesis
SAP default smoothing parameters and fitted smoothing
Rejected
parameters, for any of the applicable forecasting models, as

measured by the means of Cost of Forecast Error (CFE).
H2A:
Fitted
smoothing
parameters
produce
statistically
significant better forecast than the SAP default parameters

based on the Cost of Forecast Error (CFE), for any of the
130

4B
The second research question concerned the performance of baseline

(unadjusted) forecasts compared with event management adjusted forecasts.
Based on the matched t-test the difference between baseline and event
management adjusted forecasts was not statistically significant for either MAE or CFE
(based on a Bonferroni adjustment). Although event management adjustment was not
statistically significant, there was an average cost of forecast error reduction of $106 for
the 24 month data set and an average cost of forecast error reduction of $59 for the 60
month data set.
In the case of the 24 month data set models all seasonal model variants
performed better without event management adjustment, probably due to such models
inherently identifying and extrapolating the historical promotional periods without the
need for adjustment. Both the 24 month and 60 month data sets used in the case study
had promotional periods that took place during the same month each year during the
historical (fitting) period. However, one major promotion was changed in the holdout
negating any seasonal extrapolation based on previous years. The changing of
promotional dates (periods) therefore presents a problem for seasonal exponential
smoothing models that have identified and extrapolated such events from earlier
periods.
The exclusion of the seasonal models produces a very different result for the
average cost of forecast error, with the reduction increasing from $106 to $410. The
same exclusion of the seasonal models sees the mean event management adjusted
improvement for all 24 month models based on total cost of forecast error improve to a
2.03% reduction (average cost of forecast error of $24,550 for baseline forecasts versus
$24,063 for event management adjusted forecasts) and for MAE to a 1.63% reduction.
Notably, a similar, yet less pronounced, result exists for 3 of the 4 seasonal models
131
applied to the 60 month data set. The exclusion of the 60 month seasonal models sees
the total cost of forecast error improve to a 2.29% reduction (average cost of forecast
error of $3,350 for baseline forecasts versus $3,274 for event management adjusted
forecasts) and for MAE to a 2.78% reduction.
The potential benefit of applying event management (excluding all seasonal

models), extrapolated to total company inventory, represents a 0.23% of total inventory
value ($4,000,000), or $9,393 (Average extrapolated baseline cost of forecast error is
$451,606 multiplied by the weighted average event management improvement 2.08%
(2.03% improvement for 24 month data set (80% of sample data) and 2.29%
improvement for 60 month data set (20% of sample data)).
Assumptions: All SKUs subject to promotional activity, 24 month average

improvement plus 60 month average improvement multiplied by 14.285 (7% sample data
set extrapolated to 100% stock holding).
Based on the results, seasonal models should be used cautiously for the case
study data sets that are subject to large promotional impacts if the planned (future)
promotional periods differ from that of the past, i.e. changes in month of occurrence or
the anticipated effects of future promotions differ from that of historical events.
Irrespective of the lack of statistical significance, the event management adjusted
models performed relatively well against most forecast error measures. For the 24 month
data set, event management adjusted models take the top 5 positions based on cost of
forecast error (Table 17) and for the 60 month models also take the top 5 positions
X
(Table 18). The overall improvements achieved by the event management adjustment of
132
baseline statistical forecasts are reported in the literature in this area (Armstrong, 2001;
Goodwin, 2005; Nikolopoulos et al., 2005).
In conclusion, with respect to research question two, the application of event
management should be used cautiously when using seasonal models as historical
events could be extrapolated and compounded by further event management
adjustment. Although not statistically significant, the event management adjustment of
constant and trend models yields notable improvements against all forecast error
measures and should be seriously considered by the case company, contingent on the
degree and impact of anticipated promotional activities.
Research Question 2: Does the combination of event
Findings
management (causal factors) with time series techniques

provide a Better Fit than the time series techniques alone?
H10:
There is no statistically significant difference between event
Null Hypothesis
management combined with time series techniques and time
Supported
series techniques alone, for any of the applicable forecasting

models, as measured by the means of Mean Absolute
Deviation (MAE).
H1A:
The combination of event management with time series

techniques produce a statistically significant better forecast
based on Mean Absolute Deviation (MAE), for any of the
H20:
There is no statistically significant difference between event
Null Hypothesis
management combined with time series techniques and time
Supported
series techniques alone, for any of the applicable forecasting
133
models, as measured by the means of Cost of Forecast Error

(CFE).
H2A:
The combination of event management with time series

techniques produce a statistically significant better forecast
based on the Cost of Forecast Error (CFE), for any of the
For the benefit of practitioners unfamiliar with the concept of statistical

significance it is worth noting that the second finding (research question 2) is not
considered statistically significant based on the differences in the means of the baseline
and event management adjusted forecasts. However, the lack of statistical significance
should not detract from the potential economic benefits of applying such approaches - as
statistical significance essentially attempts to determine if results could have been
produced by chance. Such tests do not provide an indication of the importance of the
treatment (e.g. use of a different forecasting model) and as such the statistical term
significance should not be confused with importance or effect size (economic benefit in
the case of this study). For a more detailed treatment of statistical significance testing
see Armstrong (2005) Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting who argues
that significance testing should be abandoned in favour of the use of effect size and
confidence intervals so as to not inadvertently discard useful findings.
134

45B
The third research question concerned identifying the forecast model with the
best overall fit. Based on ANOVA the difference between models was highly statistically
significant (p<0.0001).
For the 24 month data set (Table 17) the top performing model, based on lowest
forecast error cost, was the trend model (2nd order exponential smoothing) with alpha
fitted and event management adjustment. The second best performer was the moving
average historical values fitted and event management. It is notable that although the
moving average produced the second least cost forecast it ranked 17th out of 38 based
on MAE. As already stated in Chapter 7.0, the moving average model was subject to
large deviations on five SKUs due to notable trends and inherent lag which resulted in
the poor MAE rating.
The seasonal models for the 24 month data set all performed poorly and were all
less accurate than the two Naive1 models. The poor performance of the seasonal
models was anticipated, as applying seasonal techniques to a time series of only 24
months is inappropriate, primarily due to insufficient history to initialize the model (
Armstrong, 2001; Gardner, 1985; Gardner & Dannenbring, 1980; Pegels, 1969)
The seasonal models performed poorly when they were event management
adjusted, likely due to the models wrongly identifying historical promotions and
forecasting them accordingly. The difficulty being that when the promotional periods do
not occur in the same months as the previous year(s) then a very costly error resulted.
The automatic alpha adaptation models all appeared in the bottom half of the 24
month models. The poor performance of the automatic alpha adaptation models is
indicative of the highly noisy data set with a coefficient of variation of 42.4% (refer
Appendix A) which compares to a reported coefficient of variation for electrical goods of
27.26% (Wacker & Lummus, 2002). There is also a reported propensity of automatic
135
alpha adaptation models to overreact and produce poor forecasts (Taylor, 2004). The
automatic alpha adaptation models all performed poorly relative to their fixed smoothing
parameter equivalents.
For the 60 month data set (Table 18) the top performing model, based on lowest
cost of forecast error, was the constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) with
alpha fitted and event management adjustment. Seven of the top ten 60 month models
were constant models with trend models accounting for the remaining three. This mix of
constant and trend models appears to reflect the characteristics of the 60 month data set
well, as can be seen from the linear regression (trend) charts in Appendix B.
Unlike the 24 month seasonal models, the 60 month seasonal models all
performed better than the two Nave1 models. The improved performance reflects the
more appropriate length of the time series and the level of autocorrelation in the data.
The autocorrelation charts for the 60 month data set (shown in Appendix B) are
testimony to the higher level of seasonality identifiable than in the 24 month data set
(also shown in Appendix B). Two of the four automatic alpha adaptation models
appeared in the top half of the 60 month models likely reflecting the less noisy
characteristics of the data set (coefficient of variation of 25.7%). However, like the 24
month models, the automatic alpha adaptation models all performed poorly relative to
their fixed smoothing parameter equivalents.
Figure 17 shows the total extrapolated (company level) forecast error costs
X
ranging from $332,532 for the moving average model historical values fitted event
management to $567,478 for the seasonal trend model (Holt-Winters' method) alpha,
beta, gamma fitted baseline.
Notably, the theory based (Pegels, 1969) SAP automatic model selection SAP
procedure 2 with event management performed well at $335,736, just 0.95% more costly
than the moving average. The best-fit results lend support to the concept of selecting
136
methods based on the underlying time series characteristics of the data, i.e. level, trend,
and seasonality.
Such an approach has been strongly advocated in the literature
(Armstrong, 2001; Fildes & Beard, 1992; Gardner, 1985; Gardner & Dannenbring, 1980;
Pegels, 1969).
In conclusion, the results have demonstrated a highly statistically significant
difference (p<0.0001) between forecasting models along with substantial differences in
costs associated with model accuracy. Naive1 was chosen as a benchmark model with
the majority of SAP forecasting techniques performing well in relation to the benchmark.
The exception being inappropriately applied techniques, namely seasonal and seasonaltrend models using a short data set (24 month). The selection of models based on time
series characteristics is generally supported by the forecasting literature and advocated
in SAPs literature. It is also embedded in the SAP automatic selection procedure
which performed extremely well for the combined and extrapolated cost curves. Based
on this case study data set an indicative range of forecast error costs is between 8.31%
($332,532) and 14.19% ($567,478) of total inventory value ($4,000,000) therefore
providing a potential saving of 5.87% ($234,946), being the difference between the best
and worst models.
137
Research Question 3: Which of the ten available SAP
Findings
forecasting models provides the Best-fit forecast for the

company?
H10:
There is no statistically significant difference between any of
Null Hypothesis
the ten available models, as measured by the means of
Rejected
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAE).

H1A:
There is a statistically significant difference between the ten

available models, based on Mean Absolute Deviation (MAE).
H20:
There is no statistically significant difference between any of
Null Hypothesis
the ten available models, as measured by the means of Cost
Rejected
of Forecast Error (CFE).

H2A:
There is a statistically significant deference between the ten

available models, based on the Cost of Forecast Error (CFE).
138
7.4 Forecast Error Measures

46B
The fourth and final research question concerned the effectiveness of SAPs
primary forecast error measure, mean absolute error, in relation to the commercial
impact of the forecast error.
The strongest evidence to support the use of a forecast error cost measure, as
opposed to a traditional forecast error measure, is the ranking of MAE versus CFE
shown in Table 17 (Best-fitting Model 24 Month). Table 17 ranks the moving average
X
model historical values fitted and event management at 17th place based on MAE but
2nd place based on CFE. Clearly, a management decision to discount this method
based on its MAE performance would have resulted in additional and unnecessary cost
to maintain the same level of customer service. A similar pattern emerges for the
constant model (1st order exponential smoothing) alpha 0.2 (SAP default) and event
management which ranked in 12th place based on MAE and 4th place based on CFE and
the moving average model historical values fitted baseline which ranked 21st based on
MAE and 6th based on CFE.
As for Table 12 (Best-fitting Model 60 Month), similar inconsistencies exist, yet
they are less pronounced. For example, the trend model (1st order exponential
smoothing), alpha, beta fitted and event management ranked 4th place based on MAE
and 2nd based on CFE.
The low criterion validity of MAE in relation to the CFE has also been reported by
Mahmoud and Pegels (1989) stating that the cost of forecasting error does not appear
to be related to any of the other accuracy measures used at the forecast phase. The
other forecast accuracy measures used by Mahmoud and Pegels were; MSE, MPE,
MAPE, and Theils U-statistic. The overall ranking of the error measures for the
combined 24 month and 60 month data sets was MW-MAPE most highly correlated with
CFE at r2=0.9247, RW-MAPE r2=0.9163, MAPE r2=0.8987, and the lowest correlation
139
being MAE r2=0.8600.

To recapitulate, Flores, Olson and Pearce (1993) state the statistical criteria
may not be the most suitable because statistical measures of forecast accuracy are not
designed to capture the economic implications associated with managing an inventory
system. Roberts and Whybark (1974) consider forecast cost implications as probably
the most essential measure of forecast model performance.
Armstrong (2001) proposes a forecasting principle that the analysis should be
tailored to the decision which supports the conclusion of this case study, being the use
of a direct cost of forecasting measure to aid commercial decision making. Irrespective
of the correlation (goodness of fit) between MAE and CFE a practitioner obviously
cannot gain an appreciation of the relative commercial impact of competing forecast
models based purely on MAE alone.
In conclusion, SAPs use of mean absolute error is not representative or
indicative of the commercial impact of forecast errors.
Research Question 4: Are the forecast error measures utilised
Findings
by SAP representative of the commercial impact of the

forecasts?
H10:
SAPs error measures adequately reflect the commercial
Rejected
impact of forecast error.

H1A:
Null Hypothesis
SAP s error measures do not adequately reflect the

commercial impact of forecast error.
140
7.5 Return on Investment via Improvements in Sales Forecasting

47B
It has been estimated that the cost of an SAP implementation project can be as
high 2-3% of company revenue (Escalle, Cotteleer, & Austin, 1999). In the particular
case of the company that supplied the data for this study the costs of implementing
SAP (licence and implementation consulting costs) was approximately 3.2% of annual
revenue. As stated in section 4.1, enterprise resource planning systems are complex
integrated tools, and evaluating such tools in their entirety would be a substantial task
requiring a team of researchers. However, as a central indicator of the likely outcome of
the application of the SAP logistics module to the company, the available demand
forecasting models are evaluated.
A common approach to assessing investment decisions is to calculate the net
present value (NPV) of the proposed project. NPV is defined by Mills and Robertson
(1999) as the sum of the cash flows discounted at the cost of capital minus the capital
outlay. In order to make such a financial assessment the potential forecasting
improvements detailed in section 7.3 (Best-fitting Model) have been used. Based on this
data set the range of forecast error costs is between $332,532 (moving average model
historical values fitted and EM) and $567,478 (seasonal trend model (Holt-Winters'
method) alpha 0.2, beta 0.1, gamma 0.3 (SAP default) baseline). This represents an
annual cost reduction of $234,946 (a best case improvement scenario being the
difference between the best and worst models). A second NPV scenario is the
improvement between the moving average model historical values fitted and EM
($332,532) and the Nave1 forecast ($410,782), being an annual cost of forecast error
reduction of $78,250. The two NPV scenarios are shown in Table 27 and Figure 21
X
below:
141
Year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Worst to Best
Discounted
Cash Flows
$
(750,000)
$
(536,413)
$
(342,243)
$
(165,725)
$
(5,253)
$
140,629
$
273,250
$
393,815
$
503,418
$
603,058
$
693,640
Cash Flow
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Discount
234,946
234,946
234,946
234,946
234,946
234,946
234,946
234,946
234,946
234,946
0.909
0.826
0.751
0.683
0.621
0.564
0.513
0.467
0.424
0.386
NPV
Nave1
Discounted
Present Value Cash Flows
$
(750,000)
$
213,587 $
(678,864)
$
194,170 $
(614,194)
$
176,518 $
(555,404)
$
160,471 $
(501,958)
$
145,883 $
(453,370)
$
132,621 $
(409,200)
$
120,564 $
(369,046)
$
109,604 $
(332,541)
$
99,640 $
(299,356)
$
90,582 $
(269,187)
$
Cash Flow
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Discount Present Value
78,250
78,250
78,250
78,250
78,250
78,250
78,250
78,250
78,250
78,250
0.909
0.826
0.751
0.683
0.621
0.564
0.513
0.467
0.424
0.386
693,640
NPV
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
71,136
64,670
58,790
53,446
48,587
44,170
40,155
36,504
33,186
30,169
(269,187)
Table 27. Net Present Value of Forecasting Improvements
Discounted Cash Flows

$825,000
$660,000
$495,000
$330,000
$165,000
$0
-$165,000
-$330,000
-$495,000
-$660,000
-$825,000
Year
Nave1 Discounted Cash Flow s
Figure 21. Discounted Cash Flow Chart
142
Worst to Best Discounted Cash Flow s
10
The NPV calculation shown in Table 27 is based on a year 0 implementation cost

X
of $750,000 (licenses and consulting). Discounted cash flows are shown in the
Discounted Cash Flow columns and are a function of subtracting the cash flow (annual
CFE reduction) discounted at 10% per annum from the Present Value columns.
The NPV of the first scenario (moving average model historical values fitted and
EM improvement cost reduction over the seasonal trend model (Holt-Winters' method)
alpha 0.2, beta 0.1, gamma 0.3 (SAP default) baseline) is $693,640. The NPV of the
second scenario (moving average model historical values fitted and EM cost reduction
over the Nave1 forecast) is ($269,187). Based on NPV, the first scenario is clearly
attractive with the entire costs of the SAP implementation being met by the
improvement in forecasting (CFE reduction) in year 5. The second scenario fails to
provide a positive net present value and as such the forecasting gains alone do not
justify the cost of implementing the ERP system.
The NPV analysis makes a number of critical assumptions as follows:
1. The only gains from the implementation of the SAP ERP system are achieved
through a reduction in CFE.
2. The forecasting gains (relative CFE reduction) are constant over the 10 year
horizon of the NPV calculation.
3. Ongoing system maintenance, upgrades, and enhancement are not included in
the NPV calculation.
Arguably the most important of the three assumptions is that the only benefit from the
adoption of SAP ERP is a function of CFE reduction. However, Murphy and Simon
(2002) report the following tangible and intangible benefits associated with ERP
143
adoption: Operational (cost reduction, cycle time reduction, productivity improvement,

quality improvement), Managerial (better resource management, improved decision
making and planning, performance improvement), Strategic (support for business
growth, support business alliance, build business innovations, build cost leadership,
generate product differentiation, build external linkages), IT Infrastructure (build business
flexibility for current and future changes, IT costs reduction, increased IT infrastructure
capability), Organisational (support organisational changes, facilitate business learning,
empowerment, build common visions). It is therefore important to note that benefits other
than CFE reductions should be expected with the adoption of ERP systems. However
the CFE reductions alone could be achieved using spreadsheet software such as
Microsoft Excel and are not conditional on implementing ERP software.
In summary, it is possible that an organisation that has applied a forecasting

model which is highly inappropriate, relative to the organisations sales patterns, could
potentially justify the investment in an ERP system (or pay for the existing system) by the
adoption of a more appropriate forecasting model. It is notable that the CFE gains
achieved in this case study reflect the frequently long overseas procurement lead times
in the New Zealand environment, the relatively high margin (average SKU margin of
68.4%) and the relatively volatile short life-cycle fashion oriented products of the
company. As such, it cannot be assumed that a comparable Best Case NPV can be
obtained under other organisational settings.
The following Chapter presents the implications and recommendations based on

the discussion and conclusions.
144
8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

1B
_____________________________________________________________________
This Chapter presents the implications of the research findings and makes some
consequential recommendations. Directions for further research are then suggested and
are drawn to the attention of researchers and SAP developers.
8.1 Implications of Findings

48B
The implications of the findings are specific to the time series and economic
characteristics of the case study data set. In relation to the fitting of smoothing
parameters, the study found both a statistically significant and commercially compelling
argument in favour of fitting model parameters to historical data.
The application of event management showed small benefits in relation to the
total cost of inventory, although the performance of the majority of models did improve
based on event management adjustment, which lends support to Armstrongs (2005)
notion that significance testing should be ignored in favour of effect size. This assertion
implies that a very simple approach to event management adjustment does yield
consistent, albeit relatively minor benefits. Depending on the impact that promotional
activity has on an organisation, a more sophisticated approach to event management
could be considered. Unfortunately a serious limitation of SAPs ERP offering is the lack
of structured methods for event management adjustment, i.e. there is no incorporation of
structured judgmental and/or intervention analysis techniques. The lack of structured
methods for event management adjustment of baseline statistical forecasts leaves the
practitioner exposed to ad-hoc judgmental adjustments and/or having to perform
quantitative analysis outside of SAP, both of which are unsatisfactory approaches for
such an important aspect of demand forecasting.
145
The identification of a best-fit model (moving average model with historical

values fitted and event management across both 24 month and 60 month data sets)
revealed a statistically significant and commercially compelling difference between
models. The range of forecast error costs associated with different models represented a
notable percentage of total inventory cost and should be viewed as an important finding.
The application of theory based approaches to model selection was

demonstrated to be useful, i.e. selection based on time series characteristics such as
level, trend, and seasonality (Refer to section 7.3 Best-fitting Model). Makridakis et al
X
(1998, p. 23) state the single most important thing to do when first exploring the data is
to visualize through graphs.
The use of SAPs automatic model selection strategy (procedure 2) is based on
the identification of trend and/or seasonal characteristics and is an efficient and
seemingly accurate approach to employ for practitioners who do not wish to analyse the
data and select appropriate models themselves.
A serious limitation of SAPs offerings (ERP, APO DP (Demand Planning), and
SEM-BPS) is the lack of standard autocorrelation graphics, e.g. autocorrelation function
(ACF) charts. Along with trend, ACF charts (also known as correlograms) are a
fundamental tool in identifying time series patterns to allow the appropriate selection of a
forecasting model.
Makridakis et al (1998, p. 40) describes the plot of the
autocorrelation function as a standard tool in exploring a time series before forecasting.

It provides a useful check for seasonality, cycles, and other time series patterns. To
mitigate the lack of ACF functionality, the practitioner can download historical sales data
from either the SAP SOP or SD (sales and distribution) modules to Microsoft Excel
and perform a seasonal plot. A seasonal plot is a plot of the sales data against individual
146
months that makes identification of seasonality considerably easier than viewing the
data as a time series plot (Figure 22 and Figure 23).
X
Time SeriesPlot of SKU-60-004

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
SKU-60-004
Figure 22. Time Series Plot of SKU-60-004
Seasonal Plot of SKU-60-004

1,000
800
600
400
200
0
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
SKU-60-004 (Jul 00-Jun 01)

SKU-60-004 (Jul 02-Jun 03)
SKU-60-004 (Jul 01-Jun 02)
Figure 23. Seasonal Plot of SKU-60-004
Alternatively, Excel add-ins to generate correlograms can be obtained from a number of

vendors including Palisade (www.palisade.com) and Lumenaut (www.lumenaut.com).
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UH
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UH
Finally, the development and application of the Cost of Forecast Error (CFE)
measure demonstrated that a total reliance on mean absolute error was incompatible
147
with commercial decision making and not likely to yield optimum forecasting model
selection results. Given the lack of commercial forecast evaluation, in any of SAPs
offerings, practitioners can perform the required analysis using Microsoft Excel, or a
similar spreadsheet application. An alternative to using such third party applications is to
leverage the integrated nature of the SAP offering and develop the necessary ABAP
(Advanced Business Application Programming) code to reference the applicable data
tables and then calculate the cost of forecast error within the system.
Practitioners should note that the CFE measure developed and applied in this
case study is highly margin sensitive and the case study data set SKU margins were
high, thereby suggesting a very high service level should be maintained. Such high
service levels will not be applicable to all companies and commercial forecast error
analysis needs to be performed on a company-specific basis. Companies with relatively
low margin products will find that lower service levels (less safety stock) will likely prove
more economic as the potential lost margin from a lower service level will not be as
great. This does not imply that the results will be worse, just that the emphasis of
benefits (inventory versus service level) may differ.
The next section presents recommendations based on these findings.
148
8.2 Recommendations
49B
The following recommendations are aimed at three audiences; practitioners, ERP

vendors (primarily, but not exclusively SAP), and academics. The recommendations are
methodological in nature and as such are not attempts to generalise the specific findings
of the case study. Supporting seminal literature is referenced for each recommendation.
8.2.1 Practitioner Recommendations

Based on the specific findings of this case study combined with supporting literature,
it is recommended that practitioners apply the following steps for product forecasting
using SAPs ERP application;
1.
Identify Time Series Features: Identify the time series features of the data
(level, trend, seasonality, and series length) to ensure that an appropriate
forecasting method is selected Makridakis et al (1998, p. 23). Given the lack
of trend and seasonality analysis tools in SAP ERP (identified in section 3.8
- Conclusion of Literature Review) practitioners can download historical sales
information from the SOP module (SAP transaction MC94) as follows:
a. Choose Extras -> Microsoft Excel
b. Enter the path name for the excel.exe file on the users computer.
c. Choose Continue
The historical sales data are then downloaded to Excel where it can be
charted and trend lines (regression) applied to identify trend. Seasonal plots
can also be produced to identify seasonality.
2.
Select and Implement Forecasting Method(s): Apply forecasting models

based on historical time series features (level/trend/seasonality) refer to
149
Figure 24. SAP Model Identification for Different Historical Patterns

X
(Adapted from SAP, 2006) and the length of the time series (Pegels, 1969)
X
or employ SAPs automatic selection procedure. As stated in the conclusion

of Chapter 2.0 (Literature Review), SAPs demand forecasting functionality
appears to be adequately grounded in previous theoretical and empirical
research, namely the use of exponential smoothing models. Practitioners can
also have a reasonable level of confidence that the relatively low (highly
smoothed) SAP default forecast smoothing parameters are appropriate for
noisy data sets, but historical fitting is likely to yield some further gains in
accuracy (Fildes et al., 1998). Consideration should also be given to the use
of event management adjustment in the context of their own organisations
promotional activity (Goodwin & Fildes 1999; Adya, Armstrong, Collopy, &
Kennedy, 2000; Goodwin, 2000). The possibility of utilising third party
software, or robust external manual processes, to provide the necessary
structure for adjustments to baseline forecasts should also be considered.
150
CONSTANT MODEL
TREND MODEL
SEASONAL MODEL
SEASONAL TREND MODEL
Figure 24. SAP Model Identification for Different Historical Patterns

(Adapted from SAP, 2006)
3.
Evaluate Forecasts: Develop and apply a financial forecasting metric to be

used in conjunction with SAPs forecasting error measures (Roberts &
Whybark, 1974; Gardner, 1990; Lee, Cooper, & Adam 1993). Again, the
downloading of necessary data to Excel can facilitate the development of an
appropriate financial metric, or the development of code using SAPs ABAP
(Advanced Business Application Programming). Refer to equations 23-28
(section 3.4 Cost of Forecast Error) for details of the cost of forecast error
(CFE) measure developed for and applied in this case study. The use of
forecast error cost curves is recommended as a useful approach to
determining the best-fit forecast model and optimum service level values for
the given data set.
151
4.
Use and Monitor Forecasts: Use forecasts and monitor on an ongoing basis
(Makridakis et al., 1998). The potential change of underlying time series
features and subsequent forecast accuracy should be regularly monitored.
As products, or product groups, enter different phases of their lifecycle then
the selection and use of different forecasting models may be necessary to
ensure maximum service level at least cost (Refer to section 7.3 Best-fitting
X
Model).
X
8.2.2 ERP Vendor Recommendations

The four recommendations presented above are aimed at practitioners currently
using SAPs ERP offering. However, SAP and/or other ERP vendors could
substantially
improve
their
offerings
by
incorporating
seasonal
plots
and/or
autocorrelation charts, linear regressions lines for trend analysis, event management
based on structured judgmental forecasting and intervention analysis, along with the use
of commercial forecast error measures such as CFE. The integrated nature of ERP
offerings would facilitate the use of existing financial information for the calculation of
such measures. SAP should also give consideration to adopting the more common
forecasting notation, such as that used by Makridakis et al. (1998), to aid practitioner
understanding. The incorporation of such improvements into SAPs offerings could help
reduce the 45% of ERP users (Vega, 2001) that rely on stand-alone forecasting
software.
152
8.2.3 Academic Recommendations

Based on this work, the primary recommendation is that academics adopt
commercially oriented forecast error measures, e.g. CFE measure or more extensive
simulation approaches, and present such outputs along with the more traditional
measures such as MAE and MAPE. The use of commercial forecast error measures
would assist in clarifying the relative value of competing forecasting models and aid
practitioner decision making. Inherent in such a recommendation is the need for
forecasting research data sets to be extended to include commercial characteristics such
as cost and margin.
A further recommendation is that practitioners de-emphasize statistical
significance testing in favour of effect sizing (Refer to section 2.5 Empirical Forecasting
X
Studies).
X
153
8.3 Contributions to Knowledge

50B
This study has made four specific contributions to knowledge as follows:
1. The empirical evaluation of SAPs forecasting models and methods with

subsequent finding-based recommendations to assist practitioner decision
making, supported by peer-reviewed literature. The study has bridged some of
the gaps between previous forecasting research and practice, i.e. the
recommended
use
of
time
series
characteristics
identification
using
autocorrelation charts and linear trends, fitting of forecast models to historical

data, adoption of more structured approaches to event management, and the use
of commercial forecast error measures (Refer to section 8.2 Recommendations).
X
The limited generalisation of the case study findings has been methodological in
nature, i.e. concerned with the replication of fundamental forecasting principles
as opposed to the specific results of the forecast accuracy of the given case
study data sets.
2. The development/enhancement of two commercially oriented forecast error
measures; Cost of Forecast Error (CFE) and the margin weighted MAPE (MWMAPE) measure to provide practitioners and academics alike with forecast error
measures more aligned with commercial decision making than the traditional
non-financial measures such as MAE or MAPE (Refer to section 3.0
Methodology).
3. The provision of empirical data to support Armstrongs (2005) arguments for the
use of effect sizing (e.g. forecast error measure reduction) over statistical
significance testing (Refer to section 6.2 Baseline Forecasts versus Event
Management Adjusted Forecasts).
154
4. An indication to business of the indicative value of adopting ERP systems

through establishing the net present value (NPV) of the forecasting gains
obtained in this study (Refer to section 7.5 Return on Investment via
X
Improvements in Sales Forecasting).

X
5. The application of Tashman and Hoovers (2001) software assessment

framework to SAPs ERP forecasting functionality (Refer to Table 7. SAP ERP
X
Forecasting Principles Review). The review provides succinct and objective

X
guidance to practitioners regarding the limitations of SAPs functionality in

relation to some competing offerings. The review of the SAP ERP system was
conducted by the author who has nearly a decade of experience using and
implementing various releases of SAPs offering. This experience covers
multiple industries and commercial environments ranging in size from $20m to
$1.5bn NZD in annual sales turnover. The author also has a total of twenty years
experience with a range of other ERP offerings.
155
8.4 Directions for Further Research

51B
This study used the sales data (sales in units, product costs, and margins)
provided by one New Zealand company and as such has provided only a single case
study in relation to the large number of worldwide SAP users. Extensions to this study
involving the specific quantification of time series features of a broader commercial data
set could prove useful to the wider SAP community. The application of a range of
parameters to unit cost ( v ), product margin ( M p ), cost of inventory holding ( r ), leadtime (L) and cost of shortages ( B5 ) could also prove valuable in that a generalisable plot
of cost of forecast error (CFE) could be provided.
As detailed in Chapter 1.0 (Introduction) this case study was subject to specific
limitations in an effort to make the process accessible to SAP practitioners without the
need for additional specialist tools such as statistical analysis software. Such limitations,
by nature, excluded some potentially important areas of research. Valuable extensions
to this study could include comparative research between SAPs ERP offering and the
more sophisticated (and expensive) Demand Planning element of the Advanced Planner
and Optimiser (APO), part of SAPs supply chain management suite. As highlighted in
Chapter 2.0 (Literature Review) APO includes additional forecasting functionality
including; a dampening profile for trend methods, linear regression, seasonal linear
regression, median method (determines the median of the basic and trend parameters,
as well as the seasonal index if applicable), Crostons method (for products with
intermittent demand), multiple linear regression, composite forecasting (combines
forecasts from alternative forecasting methods (such as times series, casual, and/or
judgmental). It would be useful for prospective SAP customers to be able to quantify the
relative commercial costs and benefits between the SAP ERP and APO offerings
and/or stand-alone third party forecasting engines.
156
Further extensions outside of the current SAP offerings could include a

comparison of SAPs ARRSES models and Taylors (2004) smooth transition
exponential smoothing (STES) automatic alpha adaptation method, along with the
potential benefits of applying structured judgmental adjustment approaches to baseline
forecasts.
In conclusion, SAP is the dominant ERP provider and further empirical research
into the functionality of SAPs offerings and subsequent dissemination via practitioneroriented journals should be considered a valuable endeavour.
157
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12B
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161
10. APPENDICES
13B
Appendix A Data Sets

52B
162
45
561
61
398
221
225
497
166
193
67
Jun-03
38
486
93
324
135
209
588
186
181
59
May-03
35
528
63
260
101
175
462
122
213
81
Apr-03
57
568
64
397
104
176
537
175
184
81
Mar-03
44
526
66
413
130
226
500
227
260
67
Feb-03
33
513
37
283
210
181
538
188
232
45
Jan-03
43
564
45
303
232
244
443
133
248
49
Dec-02
38
531
67
598
198
225
509
248
231
77
Nov-02
41
500
59
336
245
240
447
142
246
82
Oct-02
14
10
163
244
81
662
28
36
32
17
18
20
17
53
17
97
33
139
34
9
26
56
57
48
36
89
58
39
28
97
43
12
14
36
14
17
26
758
1,158
1,513
27
474
65
612
223
223
543
179
232
72
Sep-02
10
13
192
145
42
967
30
28
21
39
33
25
18
57
14
87
44
40
81
9
33
157
63
144
23
76
41
48
11
56
38
22
18
75
24
15
18
798
594
1,344
Jun-05
10
7
77
163
66
816
39
41
17
19
42
37
17
19
36
68
43
122
34
21
11
63
89
135
47
62
24
43
25
53
52
27
14
72
28
16
19
587
1,067
1,579
May-05
18
9
76
156
51
989
42
27
21
36
54
26
26
33
32
31
21
58
25
18
15
47
50
45
55
67
27
34
6
96
27
13
22
51
28
25
13
456
793
1,033
Apr-05
20
10
164
129
78
916
45
90
24
32
52
49
31
141
26
56
46
48
38
38
37
96
28
62
98
41
73
22
4
43
16
38
26
47
17
24
14
837
668
955
Mar-05
163
21
21
116
104
50
769
27
21
28
40
17
41
23
45
49
90
27
63
35
18
52
68
50
23
40
57
46
33
5
34
15
18
8
23
12
14
22
820
623
613
Feb-05
12
4
71
204
42
1,039
50
57
10
42
31
28
20
20
58
80
17
82
18
19
28
72
75
71
45
115
73
51
3
37
56
23
11
44
18
25
13
351
593
701
Jan-05
19
8
366
295
77
1,456
46
95
9
52
27
43
21
106
137
74
51
67
43
16
13
36
67
55
24
72
62
30
57
41
54
19
10
42
20
28
28
656
261
883
Dec-04
7
8
199
191
42
1,057
13
20
19
27
28
33
19
63
55
68
29
106
40
18
19
72
29
59
89
52
40
45
17
34
17
15
16
43
20
31
28
217
1,125
564
Nov-04
14
15
321
269
114
1,147
25
21
26
20
38
28
15
95
37
64
26
129
31
16
21
77
47
85
49
68
52
40
13
44
22
8
14
68
13
36
38
759
667
735
Oct-04
13
5
98
176
69
1,432
29
61
27
58
47
54
20
74
77
63
34
101
42
12
75
52
39
94
33
78
78
114
18
27
38
18
14
48
12
41
31
837
469
625
Sep-04
14
9
164
162
42
1,284
30
59
9
50
24
54
15
55
43
75
28
94
33
27
39
69
26
103
25
86
86
48
23
29
29
16
11
79
23
21
11
294
702
745
Aug-04
23
8
128
250
79
1,268
40
68
17
37
20
44
16
59
22
78
23
68
27
46
27
65
64
52
28
74
69
41
9
14
30
9
14
38
17
18
15
312
632
566
Jul-04
10
13
333
231
126
1,113
79
43
10
39
59
48
17
63
56
108
29
88
50
22
7
87
56
71
65
63
64
41
19
28
22
31
9
61
13
30
27
647
588
642
Jun-04
4
10
184
165
126
1,252
24
80
19
23
77
31
15
38
87
116
23
104
41
17
31
63
59
69
43
68
72
49
40
21
45
27
11
51
27
11
23
789
669
1,089
May-04
12
9
177
118
81
701
31
35
12
43
23
40
12
43
81
68
23
97
25
9
21
45
41
25
36
38
59
40
6
12
31
14
13
23
13
36
11
729
376
616
Apr-04
14
12
175
95
127
822
46
28
14
91
30
75
24
118
80
145
44
114
31
33
22
35
107
38
53
44
48
53
14
14
40
23
8
28
10
22
33
669
519
688
Mar-04
6
16
113
74
72
1,032
21
26
12
55
13
65
28
122
24
55
48
136
42
19
16
42
49
67
23
41
50
34
6
17
23
11
9
33
12
14
22
346
309
446
Feb-04
7
12
176
112
58
946
18
52
13
81
27
32
18
63
18
77
16
113
38
23
40
44
33
194
57
71
104
59
9
23
36
16
10
38
12
10
33
637
403
907
Jan-04
23
18
237
81
47
744
49
49
14
33
12
39
12
54
12
68
17
160
26
26
59
94
60
101
66
36
60
27
8
18
16
14
7
54
12
21
30
404
400
404
Dec-03
18
6
194
179
89
1,034
63
50
25
83
29
52
26
50
18
46
34
166
37
16
44
46
38
108
33
130
123
105
28
36
57
21
11
47
21
37
20
203
551
242
Nov-03
19
9
163
87
69
1,000
21
22
17
78
50
20
13
86
27
51
29
109
27
16
11
66
52
42
26
68
81
50
22
24
40
12
7
58
16
20
30
410
406
413
Oct-03
Sep-03
8
3
174
92
127
909
21
29
17
86
36
35
11
34
76
129
27
153
18
7
33
52
73
10
10
57
59
64
28
36
68
30
10
36
19
29
28
116
491
329
44
603
85
434
174
237
337
202
215
59
Aug-02
25
292
65
137
51
231
362
118
117
64
Jul-02
30
492
81
492
269
191
478
207
204
53
Jun-05
34
364
73
281
144
242
305
109
169
58
Jun-02
52
531
44
772
224
212
396
149
205
70
May-05
39
411
64
177
113
254
266
99
80
47
May-02
41
624
51
345
251
266
320
169
187
52
Apr-05
23
373
63
142
69
234
284
89
92
44
Apr-02
38
556
43
369
240
213
361
158
167
81
Mar-05
42
427
62
232
117
195
484
107
125
52
Mar-02
58
493
76
508
276
159
389
168
213
95
Feb-05
31
279
40
179
109
190
273
75
172
39
Feb-02
58
456
83
445
197
208
300
137
170
55
Jan-05
45
321
43
223
66
206
393
67
133
46
Jan-02
45
502
97
470
204
198
340
145
171
67
Dec-04
52
424
76
229
88
208
436
125
122
56
Dec-01
46
527
79
428
230
240
294
184
169
90
Nov-04
35
353
56
195
67
170
448
134
162
31
Nov-01
62
326
40
483
233
167
407
182
193
100
Oct-04
49
232
60
187
126
233
417
147
188
78
Oct-01
46
450
66
431
219
159
319
139
195
95
Sep-04
29
424
76
305
101
175
345
113
173
53
Sep-01
44
382
79
666
166
139
375
162
180
88
Aug-04
Jul-04
37
404
62
263
128
218
579
131
166
62
Aug-01
Jul-01
41
349
47
314
195
184
453
156
223
67
51
330
52
514
122
128
396
177
161
92
Holdout
Aug-03
17
8
163
76
90
1,179
31
43
26
65
28
30
21
51
87
68
17
132
33
15
27
59
57
28
16
47
37
29
13
18
32
11
6
23
17
33
42
234
444
382
42
213
79
458
145
140
268
134
209
71
Jun-04
46
476
60
328
123
241
327
200
243
75
Jun-01
28
352
53
437
134
124
350
232
165
99
May-04
46
451
81
331
149
201
447
141
177
46
May-01
41
262
52
342
176
112
443
146
167
99
Apr-04
40
324
29
238
105
204
334
113
143
58
Apr-01
43
284
40
298
206
162
319
151
155
81
Mar-04
34
527
62
351
134
199
493
172
176
84
Mar-01
46
374
63
499
209
175
456
170
141
91
Feb-04
35
404
64
227
117
213
538
139
152
35
Feb-01
45
269
72
314
199
131
291
182
136
72
Jan-04
47
510
44
252
204
209
537
163
192
64
Jan-01
32
413
57
310
216
161
443
195
108
99
Dec-03
36
513
34
332
167
207
506
135
134
61
Dec-00
33
504
93
402
213
231
325
204
170
103
Nov-03
50
416
55
386
216
268
456
153
175
78
Nov-00
51
334
64
503
214
206
466
203
181
129
Oct-03
Sep-03
41
510
79
357
244
240
675
178
196
53
Oct-00
50
322
62
455
154
185
381
232
163
102
Fitting
Jul-03
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-040
53
541
64
467
287
257
515
210
245
86
Sep-00
24 Month Data Set
55
528
91
378
266
237
572
184
192
59
52
265
67
825
244
169
386
179
151
95
Aug-03
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-010
Jul-03
60 Month Data Set

Holdout
46
310
62
499
185
142
458
139
193
105
Aug-00
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-010
Jul-00
60 Month Data Set

Fitting
48
486
87
301
182
220
538
153
144
65
Appendix B Sales History Linear Regression and Autocorrelation (ACF) graphs

53B
SKU-24-001 Fitting
SKU-24-001 Holdout
Linear (SKU-24-001 Holdout)
Linear (SKU-24-001 Fitting)
25
1
0.8
20
0.6
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
15
10
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-002 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-002 Fitting
Lag
25
1
0.8
20
0.6
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
15
10
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-003 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-003 Fitting
Lag
400
350
0.8
300
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
250
200
150
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
100
-0.6
50
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-004 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-004 Fitting
Lag
350
1
300
0.8
0.6
250
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
200
150
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
100
-0.6
50
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
165
10
SKU-24-005 Fitting
SKU-24-005 Holdout
140
1
120
0.8
0.6
100
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
80
60
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
40
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
SKU-24-006 Holdout
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-006 Fitting
Lag
2,500
1
0.8
2,000
0.6
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
1,500
1,000
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
500
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-007 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-007 Fitting
Lag
90
80
0.8
70
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
60
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
20
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-008 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-008 Fitting
Lag
100
90
1
0.8
80
0.6
70
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
60
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
20
-0.8
10
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
166
10
SKU-24-009 Fitting
SKU-24-009 Holdout
35
1
30
0.8
0.6
25
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
20
15
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
10
-0.6
5
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
SKU-24-010 Holdout
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-010 Fitting
Lag
100
90
1
0.8
80
0.6
70
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
60
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
20
-0.8
10
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-011 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-011 Fitting
Lag
90
80
0.8
70
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
60
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
20
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-012 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-012 Fitting
Lag
80
70
0.8
60
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
20
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
167
10
SKU-24-013 Fitting
SKU-24-013 Holdout
35
1
30
0.8
0.6
25
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
20
15
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
10
-0.6
5
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-014 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-014 Fitting
Lag
160
140
0.8
120
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
100
80
60
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
40
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-015 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-015 Fitting
Lag
160
140
0.8
120
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
100
80
60
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
40
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-016 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-016 Fitting
Lag
160
140
0.8
120
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
100
80
60
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
40
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
168
10
SKU-24-017 Fitting
SKU-24-017 Holdout
60
1
50
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
40
30
20
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
SKU-24-018 Holdout
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-018 Fitting
Lag
180
160
0.8
140
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
120
100
80
60
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
40
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-019 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-019 Fitting
Lag
90
80
0.8
70
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
60
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
20
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-020 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-020 Fitting
Lag
50
45
1
0.8
40
0.6
35
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
30
25
20
15
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
169
10
SKU-24-021 Fitting
SKU-24-021 Holdout
80
70
0.8
60
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
20
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-022 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-022 Fitting
Lag
180
160
0.8
140
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
120
100
80
60
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
40
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-023 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-023 Fitting
Lag
120
1
100
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
80
60
40
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-024 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-024 Fitting
Lag
250
1
0.8
200
0.6
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
150
100
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
50
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
170
10
SKU-24-025 Fitting
SKU-24-025 Holdout
120
1
100
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
80
60
40
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-026 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-026 Fitting
Lag
140
1
120
0.8
0.6
100
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
80
60
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
40
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-027 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-027 Fitting
Lag
140
1
120
0.8
0.6
100
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
80
60
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
40
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-028 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-028 Fitting
Lag
120
1
100
0.8
0.6
80
Autocorrelation
UNITS
0.4
60
40
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
20
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
171
10
SKU-24-029 Fitting
SKU-24-029 Holdout
60
1
50
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
40
30
20
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
SKU-24-030 Holdout
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-030 Fitting
Lag
120
100
0.8
80
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
60
UNITS
40
20
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
-0.6
-20
-0.8
-40
-1
Lag
-60
SKU-24-031 Fitting
SKU-24-031 Holdout
80
70
0.8
60
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
20
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-032 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-032 Fitting
Lag
40
35
0.8
30
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
25
20
15
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
10
-0.6
5
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
172
10
SKU-24-033 Fitting
SKU-24-033 Holdout
30
1
25
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
20
15
10
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-034 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-034 Fitting
Lag
90
80
0.8
70
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
60
50
40
30
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
20
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-035 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-035 Fitting
Lag
30
1
25
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
20
15
10
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-036 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-036 Fitting
Lag
60
1
50
0.8
0.6
40
Autocorrelation
UNITS
0.4
30
20
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
10
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Lag
173
10
SKU-24-037 Fitting
SKU-24-037 Holdout
45
40
0.8
35
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
30
25
20
15
0.2
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
11
12
13
14
-0.2
-0.4
10
-0.6
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
SKU-24-038 Holdout
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-038 Fitting
Lag
900
800
0.8
700
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
600
500
400
300
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
200
-0.6
100
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-039 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-039 Fitting
Lag
1,400
1
1,200
0.8
0.6
1,000
Autocorrelation
0.4
UNITS
800
600
0.2
0
0
10
-0.2
-0.4
400
-0.6
200
-0.8
-1
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
SKU-24-040 Holdout
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
SKU-24-040 Fitting
Lag
2,000
1
1,500
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
UNITS
1,000
500
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
0
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
-0.6
-0.8
-500
-1
Lag
-1,000
174
10
0.8
0.4
0.4
60
40
Lag
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
175
-0.2
-0.4
0.2
500
0
400
300
200
-0.6
100
-0.8
-1
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
13
18
600
17
800
16
SKU-60-004 Holdout
Lag
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
900
15
300
13
14
80
18
100
17
SKU-60-004 Fitting

Lag
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
120
16
-0.8
15
-0.6
100
14
200
18
SKU-60-003 Holdout
0
400
-0.2
30
13
17
500
0.2
Autocorrelation
40
UNITS
0.4
50
0.2
-0.2
Autocorrelation
0.4
600
16
0.2
-0.2
Autocorrelation
1
800
15
SKU-60-003 Fitting
Linear (SKU-60-002 Actual)

SKU-60-002 Holdout
Lag
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
900
14
Autocorrelation
-0.8
10
18
0
10
11
12
13
17
UNITS
0.6
60
16
UNITS
1
70
15
SKU-60-002 Actual
Linear (SKU-60-001 Actual)

SKU-60-001 Holdout
SKU-60-001 Actual
14
UNITS
80
0.8
-0.4
20
-0.6
-1
700
0.8
0.6
-0.4
-1
0.6
-0.4
20
-0.6
-0.8
-1
700
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.6
-0.8
50
-0.6
-1
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
Lag
176
16
17
18
600
500
-0.6
200
-0.8
100
0.6
250
-0.4
300
0.2
200
350
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
0
150
-0.2
400
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0.2
-0.2
Autocorrelation
13
15
Lag
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
-0.4
100
14
100
-0.2
18
-0.2
Autocorrelation
200
13
17
700
16
800
15
SKU-60-008 Holdout
Lag
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
1
900
14
SKU-60-008 Fitting

SKU-60-007 Holdout
18
1,000
17
150
0.2
UNITS
300
13
16
0.2
Autocorrelation
0.4
200
15
Autocorrelation
0.8
250
14
SKU-60-007 Fitting

SKU-60-006 Holdout
Lag
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
300
18
0
10
11
12
13
17
UNITS
0.4
400
16
UNITS
0.8
500
15
SKU-60-006 Fitting

SKU-60-005 Holdout
SKU-60-005 Fitting
14
UNITS
600
0.6
-0.4
100
-0.6
-0.8
-1
0.6
-0.4
50
-0.6
-0.8
-1
0.4
-1
1
300
0.8
0.4
0.6
-0.4
40
-0.8
20
-0.6
-1
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
Lag
177
17
18
0
10
11
12
13
16
150
0.2
80
60
-0.2
Autocorrelation
200
-0.2
15
100
14
SKU-60-010 Holdout
Lag
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Apr-04
Mar-04
Feb-04
Jan-04
Dec-03
Nov-03
Oct-03
Sep-03
Aug-03
Jul-03
Jun-03
May-03
Apr-03
Mar-03
Feb-03
Jan-03
Dec-02
Nov-02
Oct-02
Sep-02
Aug-02
Jul-02
Jun-02
May-02
Apr-02
Mar-02
Feb-02
Jan-02
Dec-01
Nov-01
Oct-01
Sep-01
Aug-01
Jul-01
Jun-01
May-01
Apr-01
Mar-01
Feb-01
Jan-01
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
140
18
-0.8
50
17
0
10
11
12
13
16
Autocorrelation
-0.4
100
0.2
UNITS
0.6
250
15
SKU-60-010 Fitting

SKU-60-009 Holdout
SKU-60-009 Fitting
14
UNITS
350
1
300
0.8
0.4
-0.6
-1
1
120
0.8
0.4
Appendix C Model Fitting Parameters

54B
178
Model Fitting Parameters

24 Month Models
Parameters

Individual SKU (combination of best fit methods)
Nave 1

Alpha Fitted
Smoothing Factor Adaptation
24 Historical Values (SAP Default)
Historical Values Fitted
Weighting Group 1 (SAP default)
Weighting Group Fitted
Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1 (SAP default)
Alpha, Beta Fitted
Alpha Fitted
Optimised Alpha
Alpha 0.2, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default)
Alpha, Gamma Fitted
Alpha 0.2, Beta 0.1, Gamma 0.3 (SAP default)
Alpha, Beta, Gamma Fitted
Various
t+3
60 Month Models
Parameters

Individual SKU (combination of best fit methods)
Nave 1

Alpha Fitted
Alpha, Beta Fitted
Alpha Fitted
Optimised Alpha
Alpha, Gamma Fitted
Various
t+3
179
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.5
*
*
*
*
*
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.1
*
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.1
0.1
*
*
*
*
*
0.1
0.1
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
*
*
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.4
*
*
*
*
*
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.1
*
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
*
*
0.0
0.0
*
*
*
*
*
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
*
*
*
0.1
0.1
*
*
0.0
0.0
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.8
*
*
Periods /
Weighting
Factors
24
8
0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1
0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1
Periods /
Weighting
Factors
24
2
0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1
0.5, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1
Fitted MAE
35.63
35.52
37.47
35.78
35.92
37.74
37.74
34.27
32.90
37.81
35.87
44.12
108.27
108.27
108.27
108.27
30.44
39.07
Fitted MAE
40.16
39.25
42.53
45.98
147.20
59.97
59.57
40.37
37.74
45.68
42.52
53.05
63.09
62.10
66.92
65.09
36.71
45.18
SAP Automatic Model Parameters (24 Month)

Material
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003
M Alpha
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.10
T
0.10
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-004 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-005 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 T
0.50
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-006 T
0.20
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-007 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-008 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.40
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
0.50
0.00 SKU-24-009 D
0.20
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-010 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-011 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-012 D
0.20
KEY: M = MODEL, D = CONSTANT MODEL, T = TREND MODEL, S = SEASONAL MODEL, X = SEASONAL TREND MODEL
180
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 T
0.50
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-013 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-014 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-015 D
0.20
Beta Gamma
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Material
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018
M Alpha
T
0.50
D
0.20
T
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
T
0.50
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.50
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.50
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-019 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-020 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 T
0.30
0.50
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-021 D
0.20
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.30
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-022 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-023 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.20
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-024 D
0.20
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-025 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-026 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 T
0.50
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-027 D
0.20
181
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-028 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-029 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 T
0.50
0.30
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-030 D
0.20
Beta Gamma
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Material
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033
M Alpha
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.10
T
0.10
D
0.20
T
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
T
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.10
D
0.20
D
0.20
D
0.20
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-034 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 T
0.40
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-035 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-036 D
0.20
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 T
0.40
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-037 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.20
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.10
0.00 SKU-24-038 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-038 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-039 D
0.20
Beta Gamma
Material
M Alpha
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 T
0.40
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.20
0.30
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 T
0.50
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.20
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 T
0.10
0.00
0.00 SKU-24-040 D
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
182
Beta Gamma
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
SAP Automatic Model Parameters (60 Month)

Material
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002
M Alpha Beta Gamma

Material
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-003
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-004
M Alpha Beta Gamma

Material
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
S
0.20 0.00
0.40 SKU-60-005
S
0.10 0.00
0.10 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
X
0.20 0.20
0.20 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-005
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-006
M Alpha Beta Gamma

Material
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-007
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
X
0.40 0.40
0.20 SKU-60-008
X
0.40 0.40
0.20 SKU-60-008
X
0.40 0.40
0.20 SKU-60-008
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-008
183
M Alpha Beta Gamma

Material
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-009
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-009
X
0.30 0.40
0.30 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-009
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-010
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-010
X
0.10 0.10
0.10 SKU-60-010
S
0.10 0.00
0.10 SKU-60-010
S
0.10 0.00
0.10 SKU-60-010
S
0.10 0.00
0.10 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
D
0.20 0.00
0.00 SKU-60-010
M Alpha Beta Gamma

D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
D
0.20 0.00
0.00
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
X
0.10 0.10
0.10
Appendix D Summary Forecast Error Measures

5B
Mean SKU MAE, MAPE, RW-MAPE, MW-MAPE, and CFE for total hold-out period
TOTAL
39.3%
38.5%
TOTAL
COST
336.24
336.24
411.62
411.62
1,553.60
1,553.60
677.56
717.85
180.51
177.49
1,564.73
1,564.73
272.93
255.24
226.27
226.27
87.56
87.56
154.06
154.06
198.13
183.69
177.86
177.86
74.13
74.13
545.12
545.12
506.69
506.69
367.12
367.48
159.80
138.05
795.63
795.63
162.17
162.17
200.01
200.01
279.47
279.47
377.69
377.69
420.30
420.30
790.93
790.93
597.91
597.91
458.34
455.05
477.63
477.63
390.26
422.40
260.38
259.07
851.01
841.33
1,220.97
1,000.82
788.49
720.40
734.45
734.45
571.22
579.90
304.17
306.29
176.10
176.10
188.66
188.66
1,609.67
1,405.20
1,440.46
1,585.51
2,159.81
2,001.66
TOTAL
TOTAL
39.4% $ 22,749.66
38.5% $ 22,256.26
5.50
5.50
3.79
3.79
97.13
97.13
51.84
55.25
24.93
21.31
216.04
216.04
12.29
12.28
21.72
21.72
8.24
8.24
11.10
11.10
13.57
12.99
10.74
10.74
5.00
5.00
28.38
28.38
28.52
28.52
23.02
22.61
7.03
5.76
33.06
33.06
7.85
7.85
8.84
8.84
17.24
17.24
18.54
18.54
20.57
20.57
35.04
35.04
22.87
22.87
19.36
19.76
19.41
19.41
17.27
18.35
12.56
12.17
16.84
16.53
15.38
13.01
7.60
7.01
4.68
4.68
18.91
18.90
5.33
5.46
8.29
8.29
9.40
9.40
191.67
185.33
217.91
229.46
268.08
232.53
MAPE
43.6%
43.6%
48.6%
48.6%
77.6%
77.6%
31.2%
33.3%
49.0%
41.7%
22.6%
22.6%
47.5%
46.1%
68.4%
68.4%
49.4%
49.4%
43.2%
43.2%
48.3%
45.0%
34.8%
34.8%
24.0%
24.0%
68.7%
68.7%
86.3%
86.3%
38.1%
36.2%
21.5%
18.9%
41.9%
41.9%
20.1%
20.1%
60.3%
60.3%
74.4%
74.4%
24.5%
24.5%
46.1%
46.1%
51.7%
51.7%
55.0%
55.0%
27.6%
28.4%
48.1%
48.1%
40.8%
44.5%
161.4%
162.3%
30.3%
30.1%
51.7%
44.4%
43.6%
40.2%
31.0%
31.0%
38.2%
36.9%
28.2%
28.4%
37.5%
37.5%
51.2%
51.2%
41.2%
37.6%
31.7%
34.8%
23.5%
19.8%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2.9%
2.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.5%
2.2%
2.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.1%
3.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.1%
0.1%
1.5%
1.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.8%
1.2%
1.2%
0.4%
0.4%
1.9%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
3.0%
2.8%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
1.9%
MEAN
39.1
38.3
MEAN
46.6%
45.9%
TOTAL
41.7%
40.7%
MAE
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
2.2%
2.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
3.1%
3.1%
1.2%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
1.8%
1.8%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.1%
1.1%
1.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
2.9%
2.6%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2.0%
TOTAL
COST
429.32
429.32
455.83
455.83
1,837.72
1,837.72
585.78
624.36
187.28
160.08
1,414.85
1,414.85
334.14
334.00
216.42
216.42
98.56
98.56
150.11
150.11
243.37
233.06
179.08
179.08
83.77
83.77
542.32
542.32
527.82
527.82
448.57
440.65
142.15
116.61
791.74
791.74
157.69
157.69
234.18
234.18
335.73
335.73
361.18
361.18
475.95
475.95
876.23
876.23
715.36
715.36
509.85
520.29
512.27
512.27
448.16
476.18
289.58
280.52
673.65
661.25
1,366.22
1,155.41
996.03
918.90
763.70
763.70
654.60
653.93
317.26
325.13
186.00
186.00
209.85
209.85
1,548.43
1,497.17
1,451.66
1,528.63
2,010.86
1,744.20
MAE
5.40
5.40
4.86
4.86
100.81
100.81
52.42
54.91
25.38
23.06
176.07
176.07
15.51
14.95
23.80
23.80
9.71
9.71
13.12
13.12
17.07
17.05
10.44
10.44
5.76
5.76
27.82
27.82
31.95
31.95
23.63
24.23
8.44
8.14
36.36
36.36
9.27
9.27
8.84
8.84
19.00
19.00
21.25
21.25
19.49
19.49
33.50
33.50
27.92
27.92
17.32
17.93
19.41
19.41
19.49
21.25
14.09
13.54
15.34
15.11
18.86
16.78
6.86
6.19
6.10
6.10
18.77
18.63
4.91
5.13
9.25
9.25
10.43
10.43
197.67
219.60
239.85
253.66
261.03
216.48
MAPE
44.1%
44.1%
67.7%
67.7%
74.2%
74.2%
31.6%
33.2%
44.7%
40.8%
19.3%
19.3%
59.0%
55.6%
73.4%
73.4%
59.9%
59.9%
46.2%
46.2%
59.2%
57.9%
30.5%
30.5%
28.1%
28.1%
64.7%
64.7%
88.2%
88.2%
38.3%
37.6%
24.0%
25.2%
44.1%
44.1%
22.9%
22.9%
54.8%
54.8%
85.4%
85.4%
29.5%
29.5%
37.9%
37.9%
54.5%
54.5%
63.6%
63.6%
25.5%
26.6%
46.9%
46.9%
46.8%
52.4%
176.3%
182.9%
28.3%
28.3%
63.1%
57.1%
33.7%
30.3%
40.6%
40.6%
37.5%
36.0%
23.9%
24.7%
40.3%
40.3%
57.5%
57.5%
43.6%
44.1%
33.4%
36.5%
23.5%
18.7%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.0%
1.0%
1.4%
1.4%
2.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.5%
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
1.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
3.2%
3.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.2%
1.6%
1.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
1.0%
1.0%
1.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%
0.9%
1.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.4%
2.3%
2.1%
1.3%
1.1%
1.4%
1.4%
1.2%
1.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
3.2%
3.2%
2.0%
2.2%
2.3%
1.8%
TOTAL
TOTAL
41.9% $ 23,763.28
40.9% $ 23,226.05
MEAN
39.7
39.4
MEAN
49.2%
49.1%
TOTAL
43.1%
42.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Historical Values
Fitted
MEAN
43.3%
42.8%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
MEAN
39.3
38.7
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
1.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
3.2%
3.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.1%
0.1%
2.0%
2.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
0.9%
1.2%
1.2%
0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.2%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
2.0%
1.7%
1.4%
1.3%
1.0%
1.0%
1.2%
1.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
2.8%
2.3%
1.8%
2.1%
2.5%
2.3%
24 Historical
Values (SAP
Default)
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
0.9%
2.5%
2.5%
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.5%
2.4%
2.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.2%
3.2%
0.9%
0.9%
0.2%
0.1%
1.7%
1.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
0.9%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
1.7%
1.5%
1.3%
1.2%
0.9%
0.9%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
2.9%
2.4%
1.8%
2.1%
2.4%
2.2%
MAPE
33.3%
33.3%
43.1%
43.1%
68.3%
68.3%
33.5%
35.7%
48.9%
45.7%
24.7%
24.7%
39.7%
36.1%
65.9%
65.9%
42.5%
42.5%
49.0%
49.0%
39.1%
35.2%
35.9%
35.9%
20.7%
20.7%
69.9%
69.9%
87.4%
87.4%
33.2%
31.8%
23.5%
21.3%
47.1%
47.1%
20.9%
20.9%
50.9%
50.9%
60.4%
60.4%
24.8%
24.8%
42.4%
42.4%
48.5%
48.5%
43.0%
43.0%
24.2%
24.3%
46.7%
46.7%
35.8%
39.9%
140.9%
142.3%
38.4%
38.4%
48.6%
40.6%
35.0%
32.1%
27.8%
27.8%
32.6%
32.1%
26.0%
25.7%
36.4%
36.4%
50.2%
50.2%
40.0%
33.3%
29.8%
34.6%
24.5%
22.8%
MAE
Baseline
Adjusted (Event Management)
Automatic Alpha
Adaptation
Alpha Fitted
4.3
4.3
3.4
3.4
82.1
82.1
60.0
63.5
24.0
23.6
238.9
238.9
10.0
9.4
22.7
22.7
7.3
7.3
11.4
11.4
11.0
10.2
10.7
10.7
4.4
4.4
28.5
28.5
27.4
27.4
18.8
18.9
7.9
6.8
33.2
33.2
8.1
8.1
7.6
7.6
14.3
14.3
19.4
19.4
18.2
18.2
31.6
31.6
19.1
19.1
17.4
17.3
18.1
18.1
15.0
16.3
11.3
11.2
21.3
21.0
13.7
11.3
6.0
5.5
4.5
4.5
16.5
16.8
5.1
5.1
7.8
7.8
8.5
8.5
199.3
173.9
216.2
238.0
287.9
266.8
24-MONTH
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Constant model (1st

order exponential
smoothing)
Constant model (1st

order exponential
smoothing)
Alpha 0.2 (SAP

default)
PARAMETERS
Constant model (1st

order exponential
smoothing)
MODEL (t+3)
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.1%
1.1%
1.6%
1.6%
2.1%
2.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.1%
1.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
3.2%
3.2%
1.2%
1.2%
0.1%
0.2%
1.9%
1.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
1.0%
1.0%
1.8%
1.8%
0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%
0.9%
1.6%
1.6%
0.2%
0.2%
2.6%
2.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
3.0%
3.1%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
1.9%
TOTAL
COST
421.51
421.51
585.04
585.04
1,907.35
1,907.35
592.33
620.44
190.63
173.19
1,153.11
1,153.11
421.67
406.60
237.12
237.12
116.11
116.11
177.43
177.43
306.12
305.90
174.01
174.01
96.55
96.55
531.62
531.62
591.27
591.27
460.60
472.13
170.78
164.60
870.62
870.62
186.24
186.24
234.15
234.15
370.17
370.17
413.85
413.85
450.99
450.99
837.71
837.71
873.52
873.52
456.25
472.28
512.21
512.21
505.85
551.38
324.81
312.15
613.86
604.81
1,675.99
1,490.52
899.60
811.54
994.99
994.99
649.77
644.60
292.38
305.14
207.66
207.66
232.74
232.74
1,596.87
1,774.07
1,597.85
1,689.84
1,957.97
1,623.81
MAE
3.62
3.62
3.32
3.32
76.18
76.18
58.90
64.54
26.62
26.47
221.01
221.01
9.27
8.23
22.16
22.16
7.21
7.21
20.33
20.33
10.21
9.40
10.98
10.98
3.79
3.79
28.18
28.18
24.51
24.51
16.32
17.76
8.49
7.56
37.65
37.65
8.76
8.76
6.30
6.30
13.71
13.71
20.57
20.57
16.74
16.74
29.32
29.32
17.40
17.40
15.75
16.49
19.05
19.05
15.76
17.08
10.72
10.67
24.53
24.43
13.27
10.82
5.67
4.74
5.00
5.00
14.64
15.27
5.18
5.07
7.07
7.07
7.96
7.96
226.66
199.01
252.45
269.37
351.07
348.10
MAPE
27.5%
27.5%
41.2%
41.2%
63.0%
63.0%
28.6%
32.3%
53.9%
51.2%
22.1%
22.1%
36.2%
31.3%
58.6%
58.6%
40.7%
40.7%
80.0%
80.0%
34.6%
30.7%
37.4%
37.4%
16.9%
16.9%
69.2%
69.2%
75.3%
75.3%
30.7%
31.0%
24.6%
22.8%
59.5%
59.5%
22.0%
22.0%
41.9%
41.9%
57.7%
57.7%
25.4%
25.4%
40.8%
40.8%
46.4%
46.4%
35.4%
35.4%
21.3%
22.8%
51.3%
51.3%
38.5%
42.6%
129.6%
130.1%
42.9%
43.3%
52.2%
44.0%
32.8%
28.1%
29.2%
29.2%
27.6%
28.3%
25.6%
24.5%
32.6%
32.6%
50.0%
50.0%
40.3%
33.5%
33.2%
37.0%
30.5%
31.7%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
0.9%
0.9%
2.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
2.1%
2.1%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
2.7%
2.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.2%
2.1%
2.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.6%
1.9%
1.6%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.2%
2.9%
3.0%
TOTAL
TOTAL
43.6% $ 24,889.32
43.0% $ 24,598.97
MEAN
41.9
41.6
MEAN
42.7%
42.2%
TOTAL
39.0%
38.4%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
1.0%
1.8%
1.8%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
1.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
2.7%
2.7%
1.0%
1.0%
0.1%
0.1%
2.5%
2.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.6%
1.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
0.3%
0.3%
2.1%
1.8%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
2.8%
2.3%
2.1%
2.3%
3.1%
3.2%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
282.32
282.32
399.29
399.29
1,441.44
1,441.44
665.58
729.26
199.94
198.83
1,447.40
1,447.40
251.96
223.73
220.75
220.75
86.21
86.21
274.88
274.88
183.13
168.66
183.02
183.02
63.61
63.61
538.36
538.36
453.49
453.49
318.11
346.17
171.71
153.04
901.48
901.48
175.99
175.99
166.82
166.82
267.01
267.01
400.69
400.69
387.35
387.35
733.15
733.15
544.21
544.21
414.81
434.29
502.86
502.86
408.92
443.12
247.08
246.12
981.34
977.69
1,178.74
961.04
743.12
620.94
814.94
814.94
506.65
528.57
308.40
301.75
158.77
158.77
177.60
177.60
1,831.05
1,607.66
1,681.77
1,794.54
2,633.41
2,611.16
TOTAL
TOTAL
39.2% $ 23,347.34
38.6% $ 22,968.19
4.03
4.03
3.48
3.48
82.16
82.16
67.22
71.01
25.43
24.80
279.31
279.31
9.03
7.56
22.90
22.90
7.22
7.22
11.02
11.02
11.48
10.59
11.52
11.52
4.28
4.28
28.45
28.45
26.01
26.01
19.20
20.70
7.51
6.48
31.59
31.59
8.01
8.01
7.24
7.24
13.48
13.48
19.64
19.64
17.17
17.17
26.28
26.28
18.32
18.32
17.43
17.39
16.56
16.56
14.64
16.30
11.55
11.57
22.21
21.95
12.93
10.50
5.64
4.96
4.32
4.32
14.72
15.36
5.13
5.12
8.83
8.83
7.70
7.70
197.56
165.74
210.98
244.07
292.09
258.64
MAPE
29.4%
29.4%
44.3%
44.3%
68.8%
68.8%
38.2%
40.7%
50.5%
46.9%
28.9%
28.9%
36.1%
29.9%
66.5%
66.5%
39.5%
39.5%
47.1%
47.1%
40.9%
36.7%
39.1%
39.1%
19.6%
19.6%
70.5%
70.5%
86.0%
86.0%
33.7%
34.3%
22.6%
20.6%
45.0%
45.0%
21.0%
21.0%
48.0%
48.0%
57.0%
57.0%
24.9%
24.9%
40.1%
40.1%
42.7%
42.7%
42.2%
42.2%
24.6%
24.8%
45.9%
45.9%
35.8%
40.7%
146.0%
147.7%
40.6%
40.5%
45.5%
37.6%
32.6%
29.3%
26.7%
26.7%
29.8%
30.4%
25.5%
25.0%
40.8%
40.8%
45.1%
45.1%
42.6%
34.4%
28.8%
35.3%
25.3%
21.6%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
0.9%
0.9%
2.6%
2.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.6%
2.8%
2.8%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.1%
3.1%
0.9%
0.9%
0.2%
0.1%
1.6%
1.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.1%
2.5%
1.7%
2.1%
2.4%
2.1%
MEAN
40.1
39.3
MEAN
43.0%
42.4%
TOTAL
39.4%
38.4%
MAE
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
2.2%
2.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
3.1%
3.1%
1.0%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
1.9%
1.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.2%
1.2%
0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.9%
1.5%
1.3%
1.1%
0.9%
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.0%
2.4%
1.8%
2.2%
2.6%
2.2%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
314.53
314.53
418.64
418.64
1,554.47
1,554.47
759.54
802.39
191.03
186.26
1,829.23
1,829.23
245.60
205.42
228.11
228.11
86.40
86.40
149.04
149.04
205.91
189.91
192.05
192.05
71.75
71.75
543.62
543.62
481.30
481.30
374.15
403.49
152.04
131.12
756.54
756.54
160.96
160.96
191.74
191.74
262.56
262.56
382.48
382.48
397.29
397.29
657.17
657.17
573.24
573.24
458.97
457.99
437.18
437.18
380.01
422.93
266.35
266.75
888.60
878.41
1,149.17
933.14
739.66
650.81
703.48
703.48
509.37
531.49
305.12
304.74
198.17
198.17
171.82
171.82
1,596.00
1,338.93
1,405.54
1,625.97
2,191.02
1,940.08
TOTAL
TOTAL
39.3% $ 22,579.86
38.2% $ 22,031.60
MEAN
39.0
38.2
MEAN
46.6%
45.7%
TOTAL
41.8%
40.7%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
2.2%
2.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
1.8%
1.8%
1.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.2%
3.2%
1.2%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
1.8%
1.8%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.8%
1.6%
1.1%
1.1%
1.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
2.7%
2.4%
1.9%
2.2%
2.4%
2.1%
TOTAL
COST
424.33
424.33
428.19
428.19
1,817.35
1,817.35
609.81
626.92
187.63
156.05
1,473.80
1,473.80
346.41
354.03
227.58
227.58
89.63
89.63
131.53
131.53
242.16
226.53
173.08
173.08
85.46
85.46
568.43
568.43
551.27
551.27
454.42
443.80
153.63
123.03
808.72
808.72
164.16
164.16
240.75
240.75
323.51
323.51
361.83
361.83
472.50
472.50
923.52
923.52
668.98
668.98
510.13
510.52
516.76
516.76
460.86
481.88
300.70
287.55
686.90
672.50
1,290.36
1,073.36
1,040.87
937.83
763.21
763.21
675.29
674.11
310.08
316.48
182.92
182.92
217.63
217.63
1,440.53
1,332.74
1,397.17
1,527.50
2,031.29
1,788.10
MAE
5.44
5.44
3.56
3.56
96.05
96.05
53.97
55.48
24.98
20.78
225.04
225.04
12.74
13.02
22.84
22.84
7.49
7.49
9.73
9.73
13.50
12.63
10.38
10.38
5.10
5.10
29.75
29.75
29.79
29.79
23.32
22.77
7.59
6.08
33.77
33.77
8.17
8.17
9.09
9.09
16.61
16.61
18.58
18.58
20.42
20.42
36.93
36.93
21.38
21.38
19.37
19.38
19.58
19.58
17.76
18.57
13.04
12.47
17.17
16.81
14.52
12.08
7.94
7.15
4.68
4.68
19.51
19.48
5.21
5.32
8.15
8.15
9.75
9.75
178.32
164.97
209.73
229.29
270.80
238.38
MAPE
43.4%
43.4%
44.4%
44.4%
77.6%
77.6%
32.6%
33.7%
49.0%
40.7%
23.3%
23.3%
50.0%
49.2%
71.1%
71.1%
44.9%
44.9%
38.6%
38.6%
47.4%
43.2%
33.9%
33.9%
24.5%
24.5%
71.0%
71.0%
89.6%
89.6%
38.4%
36.3%
23.5%
19.9%
42.7%
42.7%
20.9%
20.9%
61.2%
61.2%
69.1%
69.1%
24.8%
24.8%
46.5%
46.5%
54.6%
54.6%
51.2%
51.2%
27.6%
27.8%
47.8%
47.8%
42.0%
45.1%
162.2%
161.0%
31.2%
30.7%
48.9%
41.3%
46.7%
42.1%
31.0%
31.0%
39.6%
38.3%
27.7%
27.7%
37.0%
37.0%
52.6%
52.6%
39.4%
34.7%
30.9%
35.2%
23.9%
20.5%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
2.9%
2.9%
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.5%
2.2%
2.2%
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.2%
3.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.1%
1.5%
1.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.8%
1.2%
1.2%
0.4%
0.4%
1.8%
1.5%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
2.9%
2.5%
1.8%
2.1%
2.3%
2.0%
TOTAL
TOTAL
42.0% $ 23,753.36
40.8% $ 23,148.07
MEAN
39.0
38.2
MEAN
46.6%
45.7%
TOTAL
41.8%
40.7%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
2.2%
2.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
1.8%
1.8%
1.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.2%
3.2%
1.2%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
1.8%
1.8%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.8%
1.6%
1.1%
1.1%
1.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
2.7%
2.4%
1.9%
2.2%
2.4%
2.1%
TOTAL
COST
424.33
424.33
428.19
428.19
1,817.35
1,817.35
609.81
626.92
187.63
156.05
1,473.80
1,473.80
346.41
354.03
227.58
227.58
89.63
89.63
131.53
131.53
242.16
226.53
173.08
173.08
85.46
85.46
568.43
568.43
551.27
551.27
454.42
443.80
153.63
123.03
808.72
808.72
164.16
164.16
240.75
240.75
323.51
323.51
361.83
361.83
472.50
472.50
923.52
923.52
668.98
668.98
510.13
510.52
516.76
516.76
460.86
481.88
300.70
287.55
686.90
672.50
1,290.36
1,073.36
1,040.87
937.83
763.21
763.21
675.29
674.11
310.08
316.48
182.92
182.92
217.63
217.63
1,440.53
1,332.74
1,397.17
1,527.50
2,031.29
1,788.10
MAE
4.66
4.66
3.94
3.94
90.91
90.91
59.94
62.47
24.33
21.40
242.69
242.69
12.08
10.94
25.30
25.30
8.31
8.31
10.16
10.16
13.25
12.26
12.14
12.14
4.99
4.99
30.66
30.66
27.03
27.03
22.48
22.25
8.78
5.65
27.77
27.77
9.38
9.38
9.25
9.25
16.69
16.69
20.48
20.48
18.53
18.53
34.90
34.90
23.63
23.63
18.26
19.25
19.56
19.56
18.83
18.00
12.17
11.72
14.95
15.62
14.94
12.69
6.42
5.79
4.17
4.17
17.30
17.32
5.64
5.59
7.73
7.73
8.70
8.70
210.38
195.50
200.98
240.42
219.32
179.03
MAPE
34.8%
34.8%
50.0%
50.0%
76.4%
76.4%
39.5%
41.2%
45.9%
39.3%
24.9%
24.9%
47.3%
41.5%
77.6%
77.6%
40.6%
40.6%
34.6%
34.6%
48.2%
43.7%
41.8%
41.8%
23.3%
23.3%
82.7%
82.7%
73.5%
73.5%
38.9%
37.0%
29.6%
20.2%
32.3%
32.3%
25.1%
25.1%
64.4%
64.4%
72.0%
72.0%
27.5%
27.5%
41.8%
41.8%
60.0%
60.0%
62.6%
62.6%
28.1%
29.7%
53.0%
53.0%
46.6%
46.3%
159.1%
155.8%
26.2%
27.6%
53.2%
45.9%
42.4%
38.5%
28.7%
28.7%
39.6%
38.4%
29.7%
29.0%
33.4%
33.4%
40.0%
40.0%
52.5%
45.9%
31.5%
39.2%
21.2%
16.6%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
1.1%
2.8%
2.8%
1.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.5%
2.4%
2.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
2.7%
2.7%
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.8%
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
0.8%
1.2%
1.2%
0.4%
0.4%
1.9%
1.6%
1.6%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.9%
3.4%
1.9%
2.3%
2.0%
1.6%
TOTAL
TOTAL
42.0% $ 23,753.36
40.8% $ 23,148.07
MEAN
38.5
37.9
MEAN
47.0%
45.9%
TOTAL
42.5%
41.3%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.9%
0.9%
1.2%
1.2%
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.6%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
2.7%
2.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.2%
0.1%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
1.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.8%
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
0.8%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
2.2%
1.9%
1.7%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.6%
3.2%
2.0%
2.4%
2.2%
1.7%
Alpha 0.2 (SAP

default)
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
2.9%
2.9%
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.5%
2.2%
2.2%
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.2%
3.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.1%
1.5%
1.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.8%
1.2%
1.2%
0.4%
0.4%
1.8%
1.5%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
2.9%
2.5%
1.8%
2.1%
2.3%
2.0%
Trend model (2nd

order exponential
smoothing)
MAPE
43.4%
43.4%
44.4%
44.4%
77.6%
77.6%
32.6%
33.7%
49.0%
40.7%
23.3%
23.3%
50.0%
49.2%
71.1%
71.1%
44.9%
44.9%
38.6%
38.6%
47.4%
43.2%
33.9%
33.9%
24.5%
24.5%
71.0%
71.0%
89.6%
89.6%
38.4%
36.3%
23.5%
19.9%
42.7%
42.7%
20.9%
20.9%
61.2%
61.2%
69.1%
69.1%
24.8%
24.8%
46.5%
46.5%
54.6%
54.6%
51.2%
51.2%
27.6%
27.8%
47.8%
47.8%
42.0%
45.1%
162.2%
161.0%
31.2%
30.7%
48.9%
41.3%
46.7%
42.1%
31.0%
31.0%
39.6%
38.3%
27.7%
27.7%
37.0%
37.0%
52.6%
52.6%
39.4%
34.7%
30.9%
35.2%
23.9%
20.5%
Trend model (1st order

exponential smoothing) Alpha, Beta Fitted
Baseline
Alpha 0.2, Beta

0.1 (SAP default)
Weighting Group
Fitted
MAE
5.44
5.44
3.56
3.56
96.05
96.05
53.97
55.48
24.98
20.78
225.04
225.04
12.74
13.02
22.84
22.84
7.49
7.49
9.73
9.73
13.50
12.63
10.38
10.38
5.10
5.10
29.75
29.75
29.79
29.79
23.32
22.77
7.59
6.08
33.77
33.77
8.17
8.17
9.09
9.09
16.61
16.61
18.58
18.58
20.42
20.42
36.93
36.93
21.38
21.38
19.37
19.38
19.58
19.58
17.76
18.57
13.04
12.47
17.17
16.81
14.52
12.08
7.94
7.15
4.68
4.68
19.51
19.48
5.21
5.32
8.15
8.15
9.75
9.75
178.32
164.97
209.73
229.29
270.80
238.38
24-MONTH
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exponential smoothing)
Weighted Moving
Average Model
PARAMETERS
Weighted Moving Weighting Group 1

Average Model
(SAP default)
MODEL (t+3)
TOTAL
COST
364.00
364.00
473.82
473.82
1,720.05
1,720.05
677.27
705.93
182.72
160.75
1,589.35
1,589.35
328.47
297.51
252.03
252.03
99.43
99.43
137.38
137.38
237.66
219.93
202.31
202.31
83.63
83.63
585.85
585.85
500.20
500.20
438.11
433.64
177.72
114.34
664.95
664.95
188.33
188.33
244.93
244.93
325.10
325.10
398.87
398.87
428.79
428.79
872.63
872.63
739.12
739.12
480.94
507.04
516.28
516.28
488.65
467.07
280.50
270.28
598.07
624.94
1,327.16
1,127.33
842.12
759.69
680.02
680.02
598.58
599.33
335.51
332.83
173.60
173.60
194.22
194.22
1,699.55
1,579.32
1,338.93
1,601.66
1,645.14
1,342.89
MAE
4.51
4.51
4.34
4.34
96.77
96.77
49.71
48.50
24.72
23.89
193.38
193.38
13.74
13.42
25.63
25.63
8.41
8.41
12.92
12.92
15.27
14.61
10.94
10.94
4.58
4.58
31.95
31.95
28.45
28.45
22.28
22.04
9.06
7.12
29.24
29.24
10.54
10.54
8.67
8.67
21.44
21.44
21.75
21.75
21.16
21.16
34.10
34.10
25.25
25.25
20.15
19.86
19.48
19.48
17.93
17.14
12.83
12.32
15.30
15.65
16.55
15.41
6.61
6.04
4.71
4.71
16.97
16.73
6.26
6.48
7.86
7.86
8.92
8.92
252.98
240.55
221.48
251.55
212.70
172.24
MAPE
37.6%
37.6%
50.2%
50.2%
75.6%
75.6%
31.4%
30.8%
44.9%
41.9%
20.2%
20.2%
48.6%
45.1%
78.1%
78.1%
49.0%
49.0%
44.5%
44.5%
52.8%
49.1%
35.0%
35.0%
22.2%
22.2%
84.6%
84.6%
73.3%
73.3%
37.8%
35.9%
27.4%
22.1%
36.4%
36.4%
27.5%
27.5%
60.1%
60.1%
92.0%
92.0%
29.7%
29.7%
46.9%
46.9%
49.8%
49.8%
60.4%
60.4%
30.6%
30.4%
47.8%
47.8%
40.0%
39.7%
157.4%
150.9%
26.3%
26.7%
61.5%
57.9%
40.5%
36.5%
29.9%
29.9%
36.1%
34.6%
34.8%
35.2%
35.1%
35.1%
47.7%
47.7%
53.4%
47.3%
34.8%
41.2%
19.6%
15.1%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
1.1%
2.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.5%
1.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
2.6%
2.6%
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.4%
0.4%
2.2%
2.1%
1.5%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.2%
1.1%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.9%
3.5%
2.1%
2.5%
1.9%
1.4%
TOTAL
TOTAL
42.5% $ 23,112.01
41.2% $ 22,579.38
MEAN
39.2
38.5
MEAN
47.8%
46.8%
TOTAL
42.3%
41.2%
186
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.9%
0.9%
1.2%
1.2%
2.1%
2.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
1.6%
1.6%
0.9%
0.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.8%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
2.6%
2.6%
1.2%
1.1%
0.2%
0.1%
1.5%
1.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
1.7%
1.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.4%
1.3%
0.2%
0.2%
2.5%
2.4%
1.6%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.4%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.7%
3.3%
2.2%
2.6%
2.0%
1.5%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
352.43
352.43
522.44
522.44
1,830.94
1,830.94
561.68
548.08
185.63
179.43
1,266.48
1,266.48
373.72
364.86
255.33
255.33
100.66
100.66
174.75
174.75
273.99
262.06
182.43
182.43
76.70
76.70
610.47
610.47
526.40
526.40
434.23
429.60
183.36
144.14
700.09
700.09
211.80
211.80
229.54
229.54
417.65
417.65
423.76
423.76
489.69
489.69
852.79
852.79
790.10
790.10
530.60
523.04
514.24
514.24
465.41
444.68
295.90
283.97
612.36
626.08
1,470.02
1,369.40
866.80
792.61
767.64
767.64
587.22
578.88
372.82
386.08
176.38
176.38
199.19
199.19
2,043.68
1,943.30
1,475.48
1,675.79
1,595.50
1,292.00
TOTAL
TOTAL
42.5% $ 24,000.28
41.4% $ 23,515.88
6.39
6.39
4.16
4.16
105.27
105.27
72.66
70.47
26.48
22.64
259.21
259.21
13.91
13.78
22.42
22.42
8.69
8.69
12.09
12.09
16.50
15.66
10.82
10.82
5.91
5.91
29.16
29.16
30.46
30.46
27.82
27.19
6.53
4.71
32.00
32.00
8.68
8.68
10.63
10.63
18.08
18.08
18.95
18.95
22.10
22.10
37.76
37.76
25.07
25.07
21.69
21.48
19.66
19.66
21.12
21.17
13.98
13.33
13.68
13.44
15.34
13.04
9.13
8.68
4.87
4.87
22.46
22.34
5.34
5.42
10.11
10.11
10.88
10.88
188.29
195.45
213.33
242.02
277.40
222.90
MAPE
49.6%
49.6%
54.4%
54.4%
86.3%
86.3%
47.9%
47.2%
50.0%
43.0%
26.9%
26.9%
55.6%
53.5%
76.1%
76.1%
46.5%
46.5%
35.3%
35.3%
58.2%
53.9%
36.2%
36.2%
28.6%
28.6%
72.7%
72.7%
90.1%
90.1%
44.1%
41.9%
22.5%
16.9%
32.6%
32.6%
23.0%
23.0%
72.4%
72.4%
78.0%
78.0%
26.3%
26.3%
47.9%
47.9%
60.3%
60.3%
67.8%
67.8%
32.5%
32.3%
49.6%
49.6%
51.9%
53.5%
185.5%
185.6%
26.3%
25.7%
48.3%
41.4%
55.2%
52.3%
35.9%
35.9%
49.1%
47.4%
28.6%
28.5%
44.2%
44.2%
49.2%
49.2%
49.8%
46.5%
34.3%
40.1%
28.3%
21.5%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
3.2%
3.2%
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.5%
2.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.3%
3.3%
1.2%
1.1%
0.2%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
1.1%
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
1.4%
0.4%
0.3%
1.7%
1.5%
2.1%
1.9%
1.2%
1.2%
1.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
3.7%
3.4%
2.0%
2.4%
2.7%
2.1%
MEAN
42.0
41.2
MEAN
51.4%
50.5%
TOTAL
46.8%
45.6%
MAE
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
2.4%
2.4%
1.2%
1.2%
0.7%
0.6%
2.1%
2.1%
1.1%
1.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.9%
0.8%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.2%
3.2%
1.4%
1.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
1.1%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
1.6%
1.6%
0.2%
0.2%
2.0%
1.7%
2.2%
2.0%
1.2%
1.2%
1.9%
1.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.5%
3.2%
2.1%
2.5%
2.9%
2.2%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
499.09
499.09
500.41
500.41
1,991.86
1,991.86
821.08
796.33
198.91
170.05
1,697.57
1,697.57
378.28
374.75
223.40
223.40
103.95
103.95
163.44
163.44
295.89
280.82
180.33
180.33
99.12
99.12
557.24
557.24
563.71
563.71
542.16
529.96
132.08
95.24
766.27
766.27
174.36
174.36
281.52
281.52
352.15
352.15
369.20
369.20
511.48
511.48
944.25
944.25
784.30
784.30
571.31
565.69
518.83
518.83
548.01
549.48
322.42
307.28
547.33
537.93
1,362.93
1,158.25
1,196.66
1,138.87
793.49
793.49
777.39
773.17
317.89
322.70
226.85
226.85
242.77
242.77
1,521.07
1,578.91
1,421.21
1,612.32
2,080.80
1,671.97
TOTAL
TOTAL
47.0% $ 25,580.99
45.7% $ 25,009.31
MEAN
38.2
37.4
MEAN
44.6%
43.9%
TOTAL
39.8%
38.7%
TOTAL
COST
318.79
318.79
430.03
430.03
1,564.08
1,564.08
737.13
783.46
181.69
178.87
1,489.34
1,489.34
264.19
244.43
231.88
231.88
105.43
105.43
149.08
149.08
197.10
182.39
223.44
223.44
73.64
73.64
584.05
584.05
441.88
441.88
373.03
399.13
151.84
111.75
785.27
785.27
165.24
165.24
213.00
213.00
277.30
277.30
385.99
385.99
414.08
414.08
858.62
858.62
600.05
600.05
436.81
465.03
611.22
611.22
516.92
546.67
263.08
258.64
822.98
813.13
1,205.62
973.88
784.82
723.54
682.15
682.15
586.24
554.77
310.66
307.39
152.14
152.14
168.21
168.21
1,475.93
1,286.42
1,408.65
1,594.18
1,938.56
1,675.22
MAE
8.26
8.26
5.99
5.99
145.00
145.00
88.23
81.05
31.51
29.57
203.66
203.66
19.25
18.98
32.89
32.89
12.37
12.37
19.00
19.00
27.76
27.18
14.05
14.05
6.50
6.50
36.76
36.76
32.40
32.40
32.75
32.86
8.26
8.92
36.44
36.44
10.38
10.38
16.34
16.34
30.75
30.75
17.54
17.54
28.36
28.36
43.03
43.03
39.26
39.26
33.62
34.04
28.59
28.59
23.80
26.61
22.90
23.13
20.29
19.69
22.46
20.95
9.72
9.26
7.75
7.75
23.19
22.65
8.28
7.82
12.20
12.20
11.23
11.23
328.16
349.70
292.36
293.32
279.18
250.31
MAPE
66.4%
66.4%
84.4%
84.4%
107.8%
107.8%
53.0%
48.3%
61.4%
58.1%
21.2%
21.2%
63.4%
61.9%
89.4%
89.4%
79.6%
79.6%
58.0%
58.0%
97.2%
92.9%
40.2%
40.2%
32.7%
32.7%
88.1%
88.1%
95.6%
95.6%
50.7%
49.4%
25.5%
28.4%
38.8%
38.8%
27.9%
27.9%
113.1%
113.1%
148.7%
148.7%
24.3%
24.3%
60.4%
60.4%
55.1%
55.1%
96.5%
96.5%
48.5%
49.3%
67.1%
67.1%
59.4%
67.8%
290.9%
313.3%
37.5%
36.1%
76.1%
73.6%
49.3%
46.7%
52.0%
52.0%
47.2%
44.6%
43.7%
41.2%
54.6%
54.6%
62.6%
62.6%
62.2%
62.6%
42.5%
43.4%
26.6%
23.8%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
1.8%
4.0%
4.0%
1.5%
1.4%
0.7%
0.7%
2.0%
2.0%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
1.3%
1.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.4%
1.4%
3.5%
3.5%
1.4%
1.3%
0.2%
0.2%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
0.4%
0.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2.5%
2.5%
1.3%
1.4%
1.8%
1.8%
1.0%
1.2%
2.2%
2.4%
0.5%
0.5%
2.7%
2.6%
1.8%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
4.6%
4.6%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
2.3%
TOTAL
TOTAL
39.9% $ 22,580.16
38.8% $ 22,023.79
MEAN
51.8
51.4
MEAN
67.5%
67.6%
TOTAL
57.1%
56.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.7%
1.7%
2.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
1.3%
1.2%
0.9%
0.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.4%
1.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
3.4%
3.4%
1.6%
1.5%
0.2%
0.2%
1.6%
1.6%
0.2%
0.2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
0.4%
0.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2.8%
2.8%
1.3%
1.3%
1.8%
1.8%
1.0%
1.1%
2.6%
2.8%
0.3%
0.3%
3.1%
3.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
4.3%
4.3%
2.6%
2.7%
2.7%
2.4%
TOTAL
COST
644.74
644.74
720.63
720.63
2,743.44
2,743.44
996.98
915.82
236.69
222.13
1,333.79
1,333.79
523.33
516.03
327.73
327.73
148.01
148.01
256.94
256.94
497.99
487.53
234.16
234.16
108.88
108.88
702.36
702.36
599.54
599.54
638.25
640.45
167.07
180.47
872.56
872.56
208.53
208.53
432.91
432.91
599.07
599.07
341.57
341.57
656.33
656.33
1,075.96
1,075.96
1,228.35
1,228.35
885.42
896.57
754.74
754.74
617.74
690.55
527.91
533.20
811.77
787.95
1,995.45
1,861.22
1,275.15
1,214.10
1,262.74
1,262.74
802.55
783.96
492.66
465.54
273.72
273.72
250.68
250.68
2,651.05
2,825.06
1,947.63
1,954.04
2,094.17
1,877.62
MAE
8.33
8.33
4.27
4.27
82.20
82.20
106.50
106.50
34.07
35.05
339.22
339.22
22.77
22.77
32.45
32.45
8.70
8.70
21.58
21.58
20.14
23.05
17.60
17.60
5.60
5.60
26.86
26.86
101.94
101.94
32.18
37.65
14.41
12.09
42.42
42.42
11.80
11.80
11.31
11.31
27.11
27.11
30.56
30.56
22.69
22.69
116.37
116.37
33.20
33.20
26.35
28.24
33.55
33.55
16.98
15.86
17.03
17.66
26.16
26.70
21.60
19.63
7.44
7.56
5.36
5.36
17.90
17.66
5.97
6.23
10.05
10.05
8.43
8.43
419.86
467.03
213.68
252.59
297.00
320.88
MAPE
66.0%
66.0%
61.3%
61.3%
66.3%
66.3%
57.9%
57.9%
56.9%
57.5%
38.7%
38.7%
93.0%
93.0%
87.7%
87.7%
43.5%
43.5%
78.6%
78.6%
55.7%
64.2%
55.1%
55.1%
26.5%
26.5%
75.8%
75.8%
334.4%
334.4%
56.3%
62.2%
42.1%
33.6%
53.1%
53.1%
36.5%
36.5%
98.9%
98.9%
149.7%
149.7%
49.5%
49.5%
53.3%
53.3%
213.2%
213.2%
98.8%
98.8%
42.5%
45.3%
85.5%
85.5%
45.9%
45.6%
145.3%
152.0%
42.9%
43.4%
84.6%
77.9%
38.6%
38.0%
34.0%
34.0%
41.1%
38.9%
30.9%
31.2%
44.9%
44.9%
46.6%
46.6%
87.4%
90.3%
32.3%
40.1%
33.8%
35.2%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.7%
3.7%
3.7%
1.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.1%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
12.1%
12.1%
1.5%
1.7%
0.3%
0.2%
1.9%
1.9%
0.3%
0.3%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
3.8%
3.8%
2.6%
2.6%
1.2%
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.6%
3.0%
2.8%
1.4%
1.4%
1.1%
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
6.4%
6.6%
1.9%
2.4%
3.2%
3.4%
TOTAL
TOTAL
57.8% $ 32,939.19
57.3% $ 32,629.61
MEAN
57.5
60.5
MEAN
72.1%
72.6%
TOTAL
69.0%
69.8%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Alpha 0.2, Beta

0.1, Gamma 0.3
(SAP default)
Baseline
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
2.0%
2.0%
0.9%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
1.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
1.1%
1.1%
0.2%
0.1%
1.9%
1.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.7%
1.7%
1.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
2.1%
1.7%
1.5%
1.4%
0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
2.8%
2.3%
1.8%
2.2%
2.3%
1.9%
Seasonal Trend Model

(Holt-Winters' method)
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
1.0%
1.0%
2.6%
2.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.5%
2.2%
2.2%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
0.1%
1.6%
1.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.9%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
1.8%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
3.0%
2.5%
1.7%
2.1%
2.2%
1.8%
Alpha, Gamma
Fitted
MAPE
29.1%
29.1%
46.7%
46.7%
70.4%
70.4%
38.1%
40.7%
48.8%
45.7%
22.7%
22.7%
39.6%
35.5%
65.9%
65.9%
45.0%
45.0%
46.8%
46.8%
39.8%
35.8%
46.5%
46.5%
19.7%
19.7%
78.7%
78.7%
63.5%
63.5%
35.2%
35.3%
24.9%
19.6%
45.5%
45.5%
21.2%
21.2%
56.0%
56.0%
61.3%
61.3%
25.1%
25.1%
41.8%
41.8%
61.8%
61.8%
47.8%
47.8%
24.3%
25.9%
62.6%
62.6%
50.6%
54.5%
148.2%
148.5%
36.6%
36.5%
50.8%
42.3%
37.9%
35.2%
26.9%
26.9%
36.7%
33.9%
25.9%
25.1%
28.8%
28.8%
39.8%
39.8%
40.4%
33.5%
29.2%
35.0%
22.5%
18.6%
Seasonal model
(Winters' method)
Automatic Alpha
Adaptation
MAE
4.08
4.08
3.57
3.57
82.66
82.66
65.23
69.33
24.19
23.82
227.42
227.42
9.72
8.99
23.27
23.27
8.81
8.81
11.02
11.02
10.99
10.17
13.40
13.40
4.39
4.39
30.57
30.57
23.88
23.88
19.14
20.48
7.50
5.52
32.79
32.79
8.23
8.23
8.04
8.04
14.24
14.24
19.82
19.82
17.89
17.89
34.34
34.34
19.18
19.18
16.59
17.66
23.16
23.16
19.92
21.07
11.41
11.22
20.57
20.32
13.57
10.96
5.98
5.52
4.18
4.18
16.94
16.03
5.22
5.16
6.78
6.78
7.54
7.54
182.70
159.24
211.45
239.30
258.44
223.33
24-MONTH
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Seasonal model Alpha 0.2, Gamma

(Winters' method) 0.3 (SAP default)
Trend model (2nd

order exponential
smoothing)
Alpha Fitted
PARAMETERS
Trend model (2nd

order exponential
smoothing)
MODEL (t+3)
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
0.8%
3.0%
3.0%
1.8%
1.8%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
12.1%
12.1%
1.8%
1.9%
0.3%
0.2%
2.3%
2.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
4.0%
4.0%
2.8%
2.8%
1.2%
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.5%
3.2%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
1.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
6.1%
6.3%
2.0%
2.5%
3.4%
3.6%
TOTAL
COST
649.97
649.97
514.60
514.60
1,555.30
1,555.30
1,203.46
1,203.46
255.92
263.27
2,221.56
2,221.56
619.19
619.19
323.31
323.31
104.12
104.12
291.80
291.80
361.35
413.47
293.31
293.31
93.88
93.88
513.28
513.28
1,886.25
1,886.25
627.10
733.81
291.64
244.68
1,015.77
1,015.77
237.04
237.04
299.45
299.45
528.09
528.09
595.34
595.34
525.21
525.21
2,909.78
2,909.78
1,038.56
1,038.56
694.00
743.72
885.51
885.51
440.73
411.64
392.56
407.23
1,046.75
1,068.23
1,918.73
1,743.68
975.67
990.79
874.17
874.17
619.45
611.09
355.58
370.97
225.56
225.56
188.14
188.14
3,391.83
3,772.91
1,423.49
1,682.70
2,227.85
2,406.98
MAE
8.33
8.33
4.27
4.27
82.20
82.20
106.50
106.50
34.07
35.05
339.22
339.22
22.77
22.77
32.45
32.45
8.70
8.70
21.58
21.58
20.14
23.05
17.60
17.60
5.60
5.60
26.86
26.86
101.94
101.94
32.18
37.65
14.41
12.09
42.42
42.42
11.80
11.80
11.31
11.31
27.11
27.11
30.56
30.56
22.69
22.69
116.37
116.37
33.20
33.20
26.35
28.24
33.55
33.55
16.98
15.86
17.03
17.66
26.16
26.70
21.60
19.63
7.44
7.56
5.36
5.36
17.90
17.66
5.97
6.23
10.05
10.05
8.43
8.43
419.86
467.03
213.68
252.59
297.00
320.88
MAPE
66.0%
66.0%
61.3%
61.3%
66.3%
66.3%
57.9%
57.9%
56.9%
57.5%
38.7%
38.7%
93.0%
93.0%
87.7%
87.7%
43.5%
43.5%
78.6%
78.6%
55.7%
64.2%
55.1%
55.1%
26.5%
26.5%
75.8%
75.8%
334.4%
334.4%
56.3%
62.2%
42.1%
33.6%
53.1%
53.1%
36.5%
36.5%
98.9%
98.9%
149.7%
149.7%
49.5%
49.5%
53.3%
53.3%
213.2%
213.2%
98.8%
98.8%
42.5%
45.3%
85.5%
85.5%
45.9%
45.6%
145.3%
152.0%
42.9%
43.4%
84.6%
77.9%
38.6%
38.0%
34.0%
34.0%
41.1%
38.9%
30.9%
31.2%
44.9%
44.9%
46.6%
46.6%
87.4%
90.3%
32.3%
40.1%
33.8%
35.2%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.7%
3.7%
3.7%
1.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.1%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
12.1%
12.1%
1.5%
1.7%
0.3%
0.2%
1.9%
1.9%
0.3%
0.3%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
3.8%
3.8%
2.6%
2.6%
1.2%
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.6%
3.0%
2.8%
1.4%
1.4%
1.1%
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
6.4%
6.6%
1.9%
2.4%
3.2%
3.4%
TOTAL
TOTAL
69.4% $ 34,615.28
70.2% $ 35,457.79
MEAN
57.5
60.5
MEAN
72.1%
72.6%
TOTAL
69.0%
69.8%
187
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
0.8%
3.0%
3.0%
1.8%
1.8%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
12.1%
12.1%
1.8%
1.9%
0.3%
0.2%
2.3%
2.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
4.0%
4.0%
2.8%
2.8%
1.2%
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.8%
1.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.5%
3.2%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
1.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
6.1%
6.3%
2.0%
2.5%
3.4%
3.6%
TOTAL
COST
649.97
649.97
514.60
514.60
1,555.30
1,555.30
1,203.46
1,203.46
255.92
263.27
2,221.56
2,221.56
619.19
619.19
323.31
323.31
104.12
104.12
291.80
291.80
361.35
413.47
293.31
293.31
93.88
93.88
513.28
513.28
1,886.25
1,886.25
627.10
733.81
291.64
244.68
1,015.77
1,015.77
237.04
237.04
299.45
299.45
528.09
528.09
595.34
595.34
525.21
525.21
2,909.78
2,909.78
1,038.56
1,038.56
694.00
743.72
885.51
885.51
440.73
411.64
392.56
407.23
1,046.75
1,068.23
1,918.73
1,743.68
975.67
990.79
874.17
874.17
619.45
611.09
355.58
370.97
225.56
225.56
188.14
188.14
3,391.83
3,772.91
1,423.49
1,682.70
2,227.85
2,406.98
MAE
10.12
10.12
4.44
4.44
81.11
81.11
178.87
178.87
30.57
31.41
390.93
390.93
25.91
25.91
40.42
40.42
8.76
8.76
18.76
18.76
20.89
24.26
22.93
22.93
5.85
5.85
31.14
31.14
112.08
112.08
34.50
40.73
16.02
13.43
34.86
34.86
12.15
12.15
21.15
21.15
29.12
29.12
30.90
30.90
22.96
22.96
144.38
144.38
39.07
39.07
32.29
34.29
44.31
44.31
21.34
19.44
17.73
18.49
25.98
26.91
21.89
20.19
7.84
8.01
6.14
6.14
23.51
25.35
6.20
6.43
9.06
9.06
10.60
10.60
546.14
603.60
196.33
275.90
340.87
352.62
MAPE
80.7%
80.7%
65.0%
65.0%
63.4%
63.4%
105.0%
105.0%
48.8%
49.2%
45.2%
45.2%
104.9%
104.9%
118.3%
118.3%
39.6%
39.6%
64.6%
64.6%
58.3%
68.4%
70.5%
70.5%
27.8%
27.8%
88.1%
88.1%
367.1%
367.1%
61.1%
67.9%
49.1%
39.6%
36.4%
36.4%
37.4%
37.4%
170.9%
170.9%
163.7%
163.7%
52.8%
52.8%
54.7%
54.7%
274.4%
274.4%
122.5%
122.5%
53.4%
56.3%
111.4%
111.4%
57.9%
55.5%
152.5%
160.2%
43.0%
44.5%
85.1%
79.1%
39.9%
39.5%
45.9%
45.9%
55.2%
55.5%
32.6%
32.5%
39.3%
39.3%
47.5%
47.5%
113.8%
117.5%
33.9%
46.3%
39.5%
39.6%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.4%
2.4%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
0.6%
0.6%
4.4%
4.4%
1.8%
1.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1%
0.1%
1.4%
1.4%
13.3%
13.3%
1.6%
1.8%
0.3%
0.3%
1.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
4.9%
4.9%
3.2%
3.2%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
3.0%
1.0%
0.9%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.6%
3.1%
2.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
8.3%
8.6%
2.0%
2.8%
3.8%
3.8%
TOTAL
TOTAL
69.4% $ 34,615.28
70.2% $ 35,457.79
MEAN
67.0
70.9
MEAN
83.0%
83.7%
TOTAL
80.0%
81.2%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
2.6%
2.6%
0.7%
0.7%
3.5%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1%
0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
13.2%
13.2%
1.9%
2.1%
0.3%
0.2%
1.5%
1.5%
0.3%
0.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
5.1%
5.1%
3.5%
3.5%
1.5%
1.5%
2.9%
2.9%
1.0%
0.9%
1.3%
1.4%
0.3%
0.3%
3.5%
3.2%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
2.1%
2.1%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
7.9%
8.1%
2.1%
2.9%
4.0%
4.0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
789.68
789.68
534.23
534.23
1,534.72
1,534.72
2,021.16
2,021.16
229.64
235.92
2,560.20
2,560.20
704.39
704.39
402.66
402.66
104.74
104.74
253.68
253.68
374.72
435.09
382.23
382.23
98.03
98.03
595.00
595.00
2,073.90
2,073.90
672.43
793.84
324.16
271.78
834.63
834.63
244.15
244.15
560.20
560.20
567.31
567.31
601.84
601.84
531.30
531.30
3,610.35
3,610.35
1,222.32
1,222.32
850.35
903.12
1,169.56
1,169.56
553.80
504.41
408.87
426.42
1,039.46
1,076.94
1,945.04
1,793.40
1,027.99
1,049.95
1,000.33
1,000.33
813.75
877.27
368.99
382.82
203.30
203.30
236.72
236.72
4,412.01
4,876.14
1,307.91
1,838.00
2,556.90
2,644.99
TOTAL
TOTAL
80.2% $ 39,722.63
81.4% $ 40,946.70
Baseline
MEAN
67.0
70.9
MEAN
83.0%
83.7%
TOTAL
80.0%
81.2%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
2.6%
2.6%
0.7%
0.7%
3.5%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1%
0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
13.2%
13.2%
1.9%
2.1%
0.3%
0.2%
1.5%
1.5%
0.3%
0.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
5.1%
5.1%
3.5%
3.5%
1.5%
1.5%
2.9%
2.9%
1.0%
0.9%
1.3%
1.4%
0.3%
0.3%
3.5%
3.2%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
2.1%
2.1%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
7.9%
8.1%
2.1%
2.9%
4.0%
4.0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
789.68
789.68
534.23
534.23
1,534.72
1,534.72
2,021.16
2,021.16
229.64
235.92
2,560.20
2,560.20
704.39
704.39
402.66
402.66
104.74
104.74
253.68
253.68
374.72
435.09
382.23
382.23
98.03
98.03
595.00
595.00
2,073.90
2,073.90
672.43
793.84
324.16
271.78
834.63
834.63
244.15
244.15
560.20
560.20
567.31
567.31
601.84
601.84
531.30
531.30
3,610.35
3,610.35
1,222.32
1,222.32
850.35
903.12
1,169.56
1,169.56
553.80
504.41
408.87
426.42
1,039.46
1,076.94
1,945.04
1,793.40
1,027.99
1,049.95
1,000.33
1,000.33
813.75
877.27
368.99
382.82
203.30
203.30
236.72
236.72
4,412.01
4,876.14
1,307.91
1,838.00
2,556.90
2,644.99
TOTAL
TOTAL
80.2% $ 39,722.63
81.4% $ 40,946.70
5.96
5.96
3.71
3.71
76.69
76.69
79.60
73.17
26.13
26.18
176.07
176.07
12.74
14.52
22.46
22.46
11.19
11.19
15.35
15.35
10.40
10.41
11.52
11.52
4.28
4.28
28.12
28.12
22.73
22.73
19.46
27.21
7.51
5.44
41.19
41.19
7.89
7.89
7.55
7.55
13.76
13.76
20.06
20.06
19.57
19.57
36.93
36.93
21.38
21.38
17.34
17.81
19.58
19.58
17.76
15.55
10.96
10.27
24.39
24.43
14.52
13.24
6.59
7.12
4.17
4.17
16.38
14.47
5.92
6.17
7.73
7.73
9.75
9.75
267.85
247.37
206.13
250.62
197.76
280.62
MAPE
44.01%
44.01%
47.84%
47.84%
62.82%
62.82%
54.54%
50.38%
52.87%
50.68%
19.30%
19.30%
49.97%
55.80%
61.64%
61.64%
71.87%
71.87%
41.73%
41.73%
35.05%
33.96%
39.11%
39.11%
19.55%
19.55%
66.92%
66.92%
58.16%
58.16%
35.88%
43.79%
22.59%
15.48%
44.50%
44.50%
20.14%
20.14%
50.92%
50.92%
56.76%
56.76%
25.12%
25.12%
42.78%
42.78%
54.62%
54.62%
51.19%
51.19%
27.15%
24.20%
47.77%
47.77%
41.98%
39.18%
127.83%
115.62%
43.99%
43.71%
48.90%
49.85%
44.75%
46.93%
31.16%
31.16%
36.69%
27.96%
32.31%
33.38%
33.35%
33.35%
52.64%
52.64%
60.39%
55.80%
29.41%
38.17%
20.15%
26.46%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2.3%
2.3%
1.5%
1.4%
0.6%
0.6%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
1.2%
0.2%
0.1%
1.6%
1.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.0%
1.0%
1.2%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
4.4%
4.1%
1.8%
2.3%
1.9%
2.5%
MEAN
38.2
40.8
MEAN
45.2%
44.9%
TOTAL
40.9%
41.4%
MAE
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.7%
1.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.8%
0.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
1.0%
2.1%
2.1%
1.1%
1.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.9%
1.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.7%
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.7%
1.8%
1.1%
1.1%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
4.2%
3.9%
1.8%
2.4%
2.0%
2.7%
T+3
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.4%
2.4%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
0.6%
0.6%
4.4%
4.4%
1.8%
1.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1%
0.1%
1.4%
1.4%
13.3%
13.3%
1.6%
1.8%
0.3%
0.3%
1.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
4.9%
4.9%
3.2%
3.2%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
3.0%
1.0%
0.9%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.6%
3.1%
2.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
8.3%
8.6%
2.0%
2.8%
3.8%
3.8%
Nave 1
MAPE
80.7%
80.7%
65.0%
65.0%
63.4%
63.4%
105.0%
105.0%
48.8%
49.2%
45.2%
45.2%
104.9%
104.9%
118.3%
118.3%
39.6%
39.6%
64.6%
64.6%
58.3%
68.4%
70.5%
70.5%
27.8%
27.8%
88.1%
88.1%
367.1%
367.1%
61.1%
67.9%
49.1%
39.6%
36.4%
36.4%
37.4%
37.4%
170.9%
170.9%
163.7%
163.7%
52.8%
52.8%
54.7%
54.7%
274.4%
274.4%
122.5%
122.5%
53.4%
56.3%
111.4%
111.4%
57.9%
55.5%
152.5%
160.2%
43.0%
44.5%
85.1%
79.1%
39.9%
39.5%
45.9%
45.9%
55.2%
55.5%
32.6%
32.5%
39.3%
39.3%
47.5%
47.5%
113.8%
117.5%
33.9%
46.3%
39.5%
39.6%
SAP Procedure 2
MAE
10.12
10.12
4.44
4.44
81.11
81.11
178.87
178.87
30.57
31.41
390.93
390.93
25.91
25.91
40.42
40.42
8.76
8.76
18.76
18.76
20.89
24.26
22.93
22.93
5.85
5.85
31.14
31.14
112.08
112.08
34.50
40.73
16.02
13.43
34.86
34.86
12.15
12.15
21.15
21.15
29.12
29.12
30.90
30.90
22.96
22.96
144.38
144.38
39.07
39.07
32.29
34.29
44.31
44.31
21.34
19.44
17.73
18.49
25.98
26.91
21.89
20.19
7.84
8.01
6.14
6.14
23.51
25.35
6.20
6.43
9.06
9.06
10.60
10.60
546.14
603.60
196.33
275.90
340.87
352.62
24-MONTH
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
SAP Automatic Model

Selection
Alpha, Beta,
Gamma Fitted
PARAMETERS

MODEL (t+3)
TOTAL
COST
464.93
464.93
446.63
446.63
1,451.01
1,451.01
899.48
826.77
196.26
196.63
1,153.11
1,153.11
346.41
394.82
223.81
223.81
133.84
133.84
207.56
207.56
186.62
186.65
192.05
192.05
71.75
71.75
537.31
537.31
420.63
420.63
379.31
530.39
152.04
110.16
986.24
986.24
158.47
158.47
200.01
200.01
267.95
267.95
390.77
390.77
453.01
453.01
923.52
923.52
668.98
668.98
456.70
469.05
516.76
516.76
460.86
403.50
252.70
236.80
975.99
977.59
1,290.36
1,176.11
864.70
933.55
680.40
680.40
566.82
500.93
352.26
367.07
173.60
173.60
217.63
217.63
2,163.83
1,998.34
1,373.21
1,669.57
1,483.43
2,104.92
MAE
5.09
5.09
3.34
3.34
88.67
88.67
62.40
61.75
24.83
23.68
183.20
183.20
13.38
11.44
21.75
21.75
6.88
6.88
12.84
12.84
14.08
12.87
10.42
10.42
5.20
5.20
28.83
28.83
30.58
30.58
25.00
25.23
8.38
7.41
26.46
26.46
8.99
8.99
9.06
9.06
15.92
15.92
20.17
20.17
19.42
19.42
34.42
34.42
21.92
21.92
15.43
15.12
16.97
16.97
14.93
16.95
12.42
12.46
15.41
15.49
13.73
12.02
8.25
7.56
4.13
4.13
15.58
16.08
5.92
5.74
8.75
8.75
9.26
9.26
233.50
212.38
218.27
241.33
212.83
177.73
MAPE
37.71%
37.71%
38.26%
38.26%
69.17%
69.17%
35.15%
34.84%
52.23%
47.72%
19.05%
19.05%
49.48%
41.68%
62.59%
62.59%
36.10%
36.10%
50.58%
50.58%
49.71%
44.49%
35.60%
35.60%
24.68%
24.68%
71.39%
71.39%
91.73%
91.73%
41.21%
40.15%
24.92%
23.09%
34.45%
34.45%
24.64%
24.64%
65.53%
65.53%
64.28%
64.28%
26.02%
26.02%
44.81%
44.81%
53.02%
53.02%
51.42%
51.42%
22.11%
21.82%
44.43%
44.43%
34.31%
39.94%
161.03%
165.98%
26.75%
27.54%
48.00%
42.67%
49.56%
45.55%
24.69%
24.69%
32.41%
32.19%
30.18%
28.63%
39.03%
39.03%
51.36%
51.36%
45.76%
39.49%
30.94%
35.87%
19.22%
15.70%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
2.6%
2.6%
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.6%
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.3%
3.3%
1.1%
1.1%
0.2%
0.2%
1.2%
1.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.2%
1.3%
0.4%
0.4%
1.7%
1.5%
1.8%
1.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
3.4%
2.9%
1.8%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
TOTAL
TOTAL
41.1% $ 23,340.91
41.7% $ 24,022.84
MEAN
37.7
36.7
MEAN
45.3%
44.7%
TOTAL
40.1%
39.0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.3%
3.3%
1.3%
1.2%
0.2%
0.1%
1.5%
1.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.4%
1.5%
0.2%
0.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.9%
1.8%
0.9%
0.9%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
3.2%
2.7%
1.9%
2.2%
1.9%
1.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
397.38
397.38
402.34
402.34
1,677.65
1,677.65
705.12
697.78
186.46
177.86
1,199.78
1,199.78
363.70
311.13
216.70
216.70
82.33
82.33
173.65
173.65
252.62
230.87
173.64
173.64
87.20
87.20
550.85
550.85
565.92
565.92
487.23
491.61
169.58
149.92
633.69
633.69
180.63
180.63
240.01
240.01
310.04
310.04
392.83
392.83
449.36
449.36
860.59
860.59
685.67
685.67
406.48
398.21
447.91
447.91
387.48
439.89
286.29
287.34
616.80
619.63
1,219.93
1,067.79
1,082.30
991.60
674.05
674.05
539.32
556.62
352.25
341.58
196.39
196.39
206.70
206.70
1,886.32
1,715.73
1,454.08
1,607.70
1,596.48
1,333.16
TOTAL
TOTAL
40.3% $ 22,797.76
39.2% $ 22,223.74
188
6.92
6.92
5.71
5.71
120.42
120.42
62.81
60.62
29.67
30.35
177.80
177.80
16.25
16.14
26.83
26.83
11.67
11.67
16.68
16.68
21.08
21.15
10.58
10.58
5.19
5.19
31.17
31.17
29.67
29.67
28.50
27.23
6.75
8.09
34.33
34.33
9.23
9.23
10.83
10.83
24.75
24.75
20.08
20.08
24.33
24.33
37.75
37.75
31.83
31.83
22.73
22.94
22.97
22.97
20.89
21.37
16.17
15.58
13.25
13.65
20.42
18.48
8.33
8.01
6.23
6.23
21.75
20.83
6.92
6.09
9.42
9.42
10.32
10.32
271.75
288.29
240.29
253.95
274.25
238.76
MAPE
54.3%
54.3%
75.8%
75.8%
89.6%
89.6%
37.8%
36.5%
56.4%
57.8%
19.2%
19.2%
56.6%
55.3%
83.3%
83.3%
73.5%
73.5%
56.1%
56.1%
73.1%
71.8%
31.4%
31.4%
25.7%
25.7%
77.1%
77.1%
83.5%
83.5%
45.3%
42.2%
20.8%
25.2%
38.9%
38.9%
23.8%
23.8%
74.8%
74.8%
115.8%
115.8%
27.6%
27.6%
53.3%
53.3%
52.8%
52.8%
78.3%
78.3%
33.3%
33.9%
54.8%
54.8%
49.1%
51.6%
198.7%
207.9%
24.5%
26.0%
67.9%
62.9%
40.7%
38.7%
41.4%
41.4%
43.1%
40.0%
37.1%
32.7%
42.1%
42.1%
55.1%
55.1%
52.7%
52.6%
34.8%
37.9%
25.6%
21.8%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
1.2%
1.2%
1.6%
1.6%
3.3%
3.3%
1.1%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
1.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
3.0%
3.0%
1.2%
1.1%
0.1%
0.2%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
2.1%
2.1%
0.9%
0.9%
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.9%
1.5%
1.6%
0.3%
0.4%
2.4%
2.3%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
3.9%
3.9%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
2.1%
MEAN
44.2
43.9
MEAN
55.6%
55.6%
TOTAL
48.2%
47.6%
MAE
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
1.4%
1.4%
1.8%
1.8%
2.5%
2.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.1%
1.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1.1%
1.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.1%
3.0%
3.0%
1.4%
1.3%
0.1%
0.2%
1.7%
1.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.9%
0.9%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
2.2%
2.2%
0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
0.9%
1.7%
1.8%
0.2%
0.2%
2.8%
2.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
3.7%
3.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.6%
2.2%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
540.49
540.49
687.44
687.44
2,278.39
2,278.39
709.74
684.97
222.87
227.94
1,164.44
1,164.44
441.76
438.87
267.34
267.34
139.55
139.55
225.59
225.59
378.19
379.31
176.42
176.42
87.00
87.00
595.65
595.65
548.96
548.96
555.44
530.75
136.65
163.58
822.11
822.11
185.49
185.49
286.94
286.94
482.10
482.10
391.21
391.21
563.14
563.14
943.95
943.95
995.91
995.91
598.54
604.14
606.28
606.28
542.24
554.51
372.75
359.20
530.34
546.00
1,814.28
1,642.24
1,092.80
1,049.89
1,015.75
1,015.75
752.74
720.87
411.78
362.42
211.35
211.35
230.46
230.46
2,195.33
2,328.92
1,600.80
1,691.75
2,057.17
1,790.97
TOTAL
TOTAL
48.8% $ 27,859.38
48.1% $ 27,522.33
MEAN
23.0%
21.8%
TOTAL
21.3%
20.4%
TOTAL
TOTAL
21.5% $ 3,046.11
20.6% $ 2,931.40
TOTAL
21.4%
20.5%
TOTAL
COST
36.99
36.99
169.26
169.26
66.93
66.93
361.15
292.10
504.99
474.70
274.28
274.28
836.30
836.30
323.40
323.40
385.31
385.31
146.84
122.43
TOTAL
TOTAL
21.6% $ 3,105.46
20.7% $ 2,981.69
TOTAL
22.0%
21.4%
MAE
7.39
7.39
89.04
89.04
11.79
11.79
105.33
104.04
62.62
62.10
24.92
24.92
106.67
106.67
37.11
37.11
40.23
40.23
13.57
11.55
MAPE
21.4%
21.4%
26.4%
26.4%
24.5%
24.5%
47.7%
44.4%
61.9%
59.7%
11.4%
11.4%
28.3%
28.3%
34.6%
34.6%
30.5%
30.5%
28.3%
24.1%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
2.5%
2.5%
1.0%
1.0%
4.8%
4.5%
4.4%
4.2%
1.5%
1.5%
8.4%
8.4%
3.2%
3.2%
3.5%
3.5%
1.1%
1.0%
TOTAL
TOTAL
22.3% $ 3,180.33
21.7% $ 3,106.18
MEAN
49.9
49.5
MEAN
31.5%
30.6%
TOTAL
30.8%
30.1%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
7.90
7.90
45.21
45.21
13.39
13.39
59.23
50.15
51.85
48.62
28.35
28.35
72.23
72.23
27.10
27.10
33.19
33.19
12.07
9.94
MAPE
22.1%
22.1%
13.3%
13.3%
26.5%
26.5%
24.6%
20.4%
40.9%
38.2%
12.9%
12.9%
19.1%
19.1%
23.5%
23.5%
22.9%
22.9%
24.1%
19.9%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
2.5%
2.1%
2.9%
2.7%
1.7%
1.7%
5.7%
5.7%
2.1%
2.1%
2.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.8%
MEAN
35.1
33.6
MEAN
23.0%
21.9%
TOTAL
21.2%
20.4%
MAE
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
1.6%
1.6%
2.6%
2.2%
2.9%
2.7%
1.7%
1.7%
4.9%
4.9%
2.3%
2.3%
2.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.7%
TOTAL
COST
37.35
37.35
164.21
164.21
65.66
65.66
350.34
296.63
489.60
459.17
267.62
267.62
856.60
856.60
321.72
321.72
392.98
392.98
144.47
118.98
MAE
7.05
7.05
63.68
63.68
14.36
14.36
48.19
33.11
45.56
45.70
25.94
25.94
84.97
84.97
23.78
23.78
31.90
31.90
11.07
10.05
MAPE
19.5%
19.5%
17.5%
17.5%
28.7%
28.7%
17.9%
12.4%
34.0%
34.1%
12.0%
12.0%
21.9%
21.9%
20.5%
20.5%
22.0%
22.0%
21.3%
19.3%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.1%
1.1%
1.8%
1.3%
2.4%
2.4%
1.6%
1.6%
6.5%
6.5%
1.9%
1.9%
2.5%
2.5%
0.8%
0.8%
TOTAL
TOTAL
21.4% $ 3,090.55
20.6% $ 2,980.93
MEAN
35.6
34.1
MEAN
21.5%
20.8%
TOTAL
20.7%
20.1%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
2.5%
2.5%
1.4%
1.4%
5.0%
4.7%
4.3%
4.2%
1.5%
1.5%
7.3%
7.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.7%
3.7%
1.0%
0.9%
TOTAL
COST
34.91
34.91
323.41
323.41
57.81
57.81
622.95
615.37
591.37
586.39
235.27
235.27
1,265.02
1,265.02
440.48
440.48
476.30
476.30
162.44
138.26
MAE
8.44
8.44
47.55
47.55
13.55
13.55
61.25
50.49
50.64
47.44
27.50
27.50
76.23
76.23
28.27
28.27
33.56
33.56
12.33
9.46
MAPE
23.5%
23.5%
13.8%
13.8%
26.3%
26.3%
25.3%
20.8%
40.1%
37.8%
12.6%
12.6%
19.6%
19.6%
24.2%
24.2%
22.6%
22.6%
24.4%
18.9%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.5%
0.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.0%
1.0%
2.5%
2.1%
2.9%
2.7%
1.7%
1.7%
5.8%
5.8%
2.2%
2.2%
2.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.8%
TOTAL
TOTAL
30.8% $ 4,209.97
30.1% $ 4,173.24
MEAN
35.9
34.2
MEAN
23.2%
22.0%
TOTAL
21.4%
20.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
189
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.9%
1.3%
2.4%
2.4%
1.6%
1.6%
5.6%
5.6%
2.0%
2.0%
2.7%
2.7%
0.8%
0.7%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
2.7%
2.2%
2.8%
2.6%
1.6%
1.6%
5.0%
5.0%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.7%
0.9%
0.7%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
39.90
39.90
172.72
172.72
66.45
66.45
362.26
298.65
478.18
447.95
259.67
259.67
904.00
904.00
335.52
335.52
397.29
397.29
147.56
113.23
TOTAL
TOTAL
21.6% $ 3,163.56
20.8% $ 3,035.39
Alpha 0.2 (SAP

default)
MEAN
23.3%
22.1%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
MEAN
24.3%
23.5%
TOTAL
COST
46.38
46.38
228.18
228.18
64.22
64.22
327.08
285.24
517.14
500.52
267.82
267.82
844.62
844.62
338.50
338.50
397.20
397.20
149.20
133.51
Trend model (2nd

order exponential
smoothing)
MEAN
35.4
33.7
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
1.3%
1.3%
1.6%
1.6%
2.7%
2.1%
3.0%
2.8%
1.7%
1.7%
4.8%
4.8%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.7%
0.9%
0.7%
MEAN
37.0
36.0
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.5%
1.5%
2.6%
2.2%
2.9%
2.8%
1.7%
1.7%
4.8%
4.8%
2.5%
2.5%
2.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.8%

exponential smoothing) Alpha, Beta Fitted
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.0%
1.0%
2.6%
2.0%
3.0%
2.8%
1.8%
1.8%
5.6%
5.6%
2.1%
2.1%
2.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.8%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.5%
0.5%
1.7%
1.7%
1.0%
1.0%
2.4%
2.1%
3.0%
2.9%
1.7%
1.7%
5.6%
5.6%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.9%
Alpha 0.2, Beta

0.1 (SAP default)
MAPE
21.9%
21.9%
13.8%
13.8%
26.9%
26.9%
25.6%
20.2%
42.2%
39.6%
13.2%
13.2%
18.8%
18.8%
23.5%
23.5%
22.6%
22.6%
24.5%
20.5%
9.81
9.81
62.82
62.82
13.09
13.09
55.30
48.23
54.76
53.00
28.37
28.37
71.22
71.22
28.52
28.52
33.55
33.55
12.46
11.15
MAPE
27.0%
27.0%
18.7%
18.7%
25.1%
25.1%
24.4%
20.6%
41.6%
40.3%
13.0%
13.0%
18.8%
18.8%
25.5%
25.5%
23.5%
23.5%
25.5%
22.3%
MAE

exponential smoothing)
0.0%
0.0%
Baseline
MEAN
34.8
33.3
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
36.31
36.31
175.66
175.66
63.32
63.32
345.64
288.04
487.85
457.00
268.24
268.24
830.55
830.55
312.80
312.80
382.86
382.86
142.88
116.63
Weighting Group
Fitted
MAE
7.83
7.83
46.60
46.60
13.64
13.64
61.06
49.39
53.48
50.27
29.05
29.05
70.52
70.52
27.24
27.24
32.55
32.55
12.27
10.23
60-MONTH
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001-EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002-EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003-EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004-EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005-EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006-EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007-EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008-EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009-EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010-EM
TOTAL
TOTAL
23.1% $ 3,180.81
22.2% $ 3,068.86
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
2.7%
2.2%
2.9%
2.7%
1.7%
1.7%
4.8%
4.8%
2.2%
2.2%
2.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.7%
Weighted Moving
Average Model
PARAMETERS
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.0%
1.0%
2.5%
2.1%
3.0%
2.7%
1.7%
1.7%
5.6%
5.6%
2.1%
2.1%
2.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.8%
Weighted Moving Weighting Group 1

Average Model
(SAP default)
MODEL (t+3)
MAPE
21.5%
21.5%
14.4%
14.4%
25.8%
25.8%
25.1%
20.4%
41.6%
38.5%
13.0%
13.0%
18.8%
18.8%
23.2%
23.2%
22.9%
22.9%
23.9%
19.6%
Historical Values
Fitted
TOTAL
23.0%
22.1%
MAE
7.68
7.68
48.36
48.36
12.91
12.91
58.44
48.70
51.66
48.39
28.41
28.41
70.03
70.03
26.35
26.35
32.34
32.34
11.94
9.74
MEAN
24.5%
23.1%
TOTAL
COST
34.97
34.97
205.95
205.95
61.47
61.47
355.69
301.12
495.45
468.82
251.72
251.72
915.47
915.47
323.50
323.50
389.42
389.42
147.17
116.42
24 Historical
Values (SAP
Default)
MEAN
36.6
35.1
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
2.4%
3.2%
3.0%
1.6%
1.6%
5.4%
5.4%
2.4%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
0.9%
0.7%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.0%
1.0%
2.8%
2.3%
3.2%
3.0%
1.6%
1.6%
6.3%
6.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.8%
2.8%
1.0%
0.8%
MAE
Baseline
Automatic Alpha
Adaptation
Alpha Fitted
7.4
7.4
56.7
56.7
12.5
12.5
60.1
50.9
52.5
49.6
26.7
26.7
77.2
77.2
27.3
27.3
32.9
32.9
12.3
9.7
MAPE
20.9%
20.9%
17.0%
17.0%
25.5%
25.5%
28.0%
22.9%
45.4%
42.4%
12.2%
12.2%
21.1%
21.1%
24.9%
24.9%
24.4%
24.4%
25.0%
19.9%
60-MONTH
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001-EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002-EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003-EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004-EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005-EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006-EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007-EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008-EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009-EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010-EM
Constant model (1st

order exponential
smoothing)
Constant model (1st

order exponential
smoothing)
Alpha 0.2 (SAP

default)
PARAMETERS
Constant model (1st

order exponential
smoothing)
MODEL (t+3)
TOTAL
COST
$
33.31
$
33.31
$
231.29
$
231.29
$
70.44
$
70.44
$
285.01
$
195.81
$
430.26
$
431.57
$
244.94
$
244.94
$ 1,007.64
$ 1,007.64
$
282.23
$
282.23
$
377.65
$
377.65
$
132.52
$
120.34
MAE
7.26
7.26
61.25
61.25
15.92
15.92
51.45
43.84
42.94
42.03
22.37
22.37
74.84
74.84
25.83
25.83
34.81
34.81
11.49
11.09
MAPE
20.1%
20.1%
17.4%
17.4%
31.3%
31.3%
21.3%
17.8%
34.8%
33.3%
10.2%
10.2%
19.3%
19.3%
21.9%
21.9%
23.6%
23.6%
22.3%
21.6%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.2%
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
2.5%
2.4%
1.4%
1.4%
5.8%
5.8%
2.0%
2.0%
2.7%
2.7%
0.9%
0.9%
TOTAL
TOTAL
20.8% $ 3,095.28
20.1% $ 2,995.21
MEAN
34.8
33.9
MEAN
22.2%
21.6%
TOTAL
20.5%
20.1%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
2.2%
1.9%
2.4%
2.3%
1.3%
1.3%
4.9%
4.9%
2.1%
2.1%
2.9%
2.9%
0.8%
0.8%
TOTAL
COST
34.32
34.32
222.45
222.45
78.10
78.10
304.30
259.28
405.51
396.94
211.23
211.23
887.60
887.60
306.58
306.58
412.14
412.14
137.51
132.76
MAE
8.36
8.36
51.19
51.19
16.04
16.04
65.41
54.96
59.73
55.55
33.36
33.36
82.10
82.10
28.12
28.12
34.93
34.93
12.59
10.97
MAPE
22.7%
22.7%
14.1%
14.1%
31.1%
31.1%
23.6%
20.1%
41.9%
39.1%
15.2%
15.2%
20.5%
20.5%
23.8%
23.8%
23.1%
23.1%
24.3%
21.3%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
2.4%
2.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.0%
2.0%
6.1%
6.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.8%
TOTAL
TOTAL
20.8% $ 2,999.74
20.3% $ 2,941.39
MEAN
39.2
37.6
MEAN
24.0%
23.1%
TOTAL
22.2%
21.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
1.8%
1.8%
2.5%
2.1%
2.9%
2.7%
2.0%
2.0%
5.2%
5.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.8%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
39.53
39.53
185.92
185.92
78.68
78.68
386.89
325.04
564.00
524.59
314.96
314.96
973.68
973.68
333.81
333.81
413.49
413.49
150.77
131.29
TOTAL
TOTAL
22.5% $ 3,441.72
21.8% $ 3,320.99
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001-EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002-EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003-EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004-EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005-EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006-EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007-EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008-EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009-EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010-EM
0.0%
0.0%
Baseline
MEAN
47.9
46.4
MEAN
28.6%
27.6%
TOTAL
28.0%
27.2%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
2.6%
2.3%
2.8%
2.6%
1.8%
1.8%
7.6%
7.6%
2.9%
2.9%
3.6%
3.6%
1.2%
1.1%
TOTAL
TOTAL
28.0% $ 3,913.14
27.2% $ 3,812.51
MEAN
42.8
41.7
MEAN
27.0%
26.3%
TOTAL
25.7%
25.2%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
2.7%
2.4%
2.7%
2.5%
1.8%
1.8%
6.6%
6.6%
3.0%
3.0%
3.8%
3.8%
1.0%
1.0%
TOTAL
COST
48.39
48.39
205.92
205.92
79.69
79.69
384.55
343.74
474.33
440.53
283.64
283.64
1,199.09
1,199.09
442.98
442.98
545.56
545.56
179.20
171.28
MAE
9.33
9.33
70.72
70.72
15.38
15.38
59.71
59.71
51.59
49.62
32.24
32.24
86.37
86.37
28.97
28.97
34.97
34.97
12.11
12.62
MAPE
25.7%
25.7%
19.0%
19.0%
30.8%
30.8%
24.2%
24.2%
44.8%
42.6%
15.0%
15.0%
22.0%
22.0%
25.0%
25.0%
24.4%
24.4%
24.4%
25.0%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.5%
0.5%
1.8%
1.8%
1.2%
1.2%
2.4%
2.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
6.6%
6.6%
2.3%
2.3%
2.8%
2.8%
1.0%
1.0%
TOTAL
TOTAL
25.9% $ 3,843.33
25.3% $ 3,760.82
MEAN
40.1
40.0
MEAN
25.5%
25.4%
TOTAL
23.7%
23.6%
MEAN
25.3%
25.4%
TOTAL
22.5%
22.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
52.54
52.54
232.70
232.70
91.73
91.73
302.24
302.24
465.15
453.41
263.40
263.40
991.27
991.27
384.18
384.18
480.98
480.98
154.98
170.06
TOTAL
TOTAL
23.0% $ 3,419.18
23.0% $ 3,422.53
MAPE
27.5%
27.5%
16.4%
16.4%
31.9%
31.9%
23.3%
23.3%
43.4%
42.3%
12.7%
12.7%
21.1%
21.1%
25.0%
25.0%
25.3%
25.3%
25.2%
26.5%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
3.1%
3.0%
1.7%
1.7%
6.3%
6.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.9%
2.9%
1.0%
1.1%
TOTAL
TOTAL
23.9% $ 3,448.11
23.8% $ 3,435.68
MEAN
38.3
38.3
MEAN
25.2%
25.2%
TOTAL
22.9%
22.9%
7.38
7.26
45.65
61.59
11.99
11.64
42.62
28.24
59.89
59.37
28.40
31.39
76.56
92.53
31.75
25.08
37.41
41.75
12.29
10.05
MAPE
21.14%
20.77%
13.51%
16.72%
25.00%
22.63%
17.35%
11.50%
59.55%
57.33%
13.73%
14.99%
19.12%
22.12%
29.54%
22.45%
24.32%
26.79%
25.02%
19.33%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.9%
1.7%
1.2%
4.2%
4.1%
1.8%
2.0%
5.7%
6.6%
2.7%
2.0%
2.8%
3.1%
1.0%
0.8%
MEAN
35.4
36.9
MEAN
24.83%
23.46%
TOTAL
22.6%
22.6%
MAE
TOTAL
COST
$
34.87
$
34.31
$
165.82
$
223.71
$
58.81
$
57.08
$
252.08
$
167.02
$
565.51
$
560.63
$
268.16
$
296.32
$
907.97
$ 1,097.38
$
376.90
$
297.65
$
442.93
$
494.26
$
147.17
$
120.34
MAE
7.64
7.64
61.45
61.45
8.03
8.03
61.68
54.08
41.82
39.53
25.28
25.28
84.24
84.24
29.28
29.28
34.56
34.56
17.24
17.18
MAPE
23.88%
23.88%
20.50%
20.50%
14.33%
14.33%
33.04%
28.31%
53.12%
49.30%
11.93%
11.93%
25.94%
25.94%
32.69%
32.69%
31.20%
31.20%
38.71%
36.85%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.5%
0.5%
1.9%
1.9%
0.6%
0.6%
3.3%
2.8%
3.8%
3.5%
1.6%
1.6%
7.7%
7.7%
3.0%
3.0%
3.6%
3.6%
1.5%
1.5%
TOTAL
TOTAL
22.8% $ 3,220.23
22.5% $ 3,348.72
MEAN
37.1
36.1
MEAN
28.53%
27.49%
TOTAL
27.4%
26.6%
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
1.3%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.8%
1.2%
4.2%
4.0%
1.8%
2.0%
4.9%
5.7%
2.9%
2.2%
2.9%
3.2%
0.9%
0.7%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
T+3
MEAN
39.2
39.2
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.9%
0.9%
1.6%
1.6%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.7%
2.6%
1.7%
1.7%
5.2%
5.2%
2.6%
2.6%
3.2%
3.2%
0.9%
1.0%
MAE
10.13
10.13
59.27
59.27
16.39
16.39
55.14
55.14
50.95
50.10
27.22
27.22
84.07
84.07
29.50
29.50
37.74
37.74
12.34
13.54
Nave 1
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.4%
1.4%
2.1%
2.1%
2.7%
2.7%
1.7%
1.7%
6.0%
6.0%
2.4%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
1.0%
1.1%
TOTAL
COST
44.11
44.11
256.86
256.86
75.42
75.42
353.14
353.14
487.17
468.58
304.35
304.35
1,024.26
1,024.26
343.86
343.86
413.98
413.98
144.94
151.12
SAP Procedure 2
MAPE
29.7%
29.7%
16.9%
16.9%
35.9%
35.9%
20.6%
20.6%
38.4%
37.9%
13.1%
13.1%
20.2%
20.2%
26.5%
26.5%
26.2%
26.2%
25.1%
27.2%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
2.6%
2.6%
3.1%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
5.6%
5.6%
2.4%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
0.9%
0.9%
SAP Automatic Model

Selection
0.0%
0.0%
Baseline
MAPE
26.5%
26.5%
16.5%
16.5%
31.1%
31.1%
25.7%
22.9%
39.3%
36.0%
13.9%
13.9%
25.6%
25.6%
31.6%
31.6%
31.1%
31.1%
29.1%
27.7%
MAE
11.12
11.12
64.07
64.07
18.70
18.70
51.10
51.10
49.26
48.02
27.90
27.90
83.58
83.58
32.36
32.36
40.63
40.63
12.95
14.21
60-MONTH
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001-EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002-EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003-EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004-EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005-EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006-EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007-EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008-EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009-EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010-EM
MAE
10.24
10.24
56.69
56.69
16.25
16.25
65.02
58.12
50.23
46.65
30.04
30.04
101.11
101.11
37.32
37.32
46.08
46.08
14.97
14.31
Alpha, Beta,
Gamma Fitted
PARAMETERS
TOTAL
COST
33.61
33.61
499.39
499.39
61.62
61.62
274.26
214.15
531.36
505.36
321.44
321.44
1,123.22
1,123.22
465.07
465.07
439.08
439.08
164.10
149.56

MODEL (t+3)
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.6%
0.6%
3.7%
3.7%
1.5%
1.5%
2.1%
1.6%
3.6%
3.4%
2.2%
2.2%
6.6%
6.6%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
0.8%
0.8%
Alpha 0.2, Beta

0.1, Gamma 0.3
(SAP default)
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.4%
0.4%
3.6%
3.6%
1.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1.5%
3.7%
3.5%
2.3%
2.3%
7.6%
7.6%
3.3%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
0.9%
0.8%

MAPE
19.8%
19.8%
38.7%
38.7%
26.0%
26.0%
20.1%
15.2%
52.2%
48.8%
16.9%
16.9%
25.6%
25.6%
35.9%
35.9%
27.9%
27.9%
22.8%
21.0%
Alpha, Gamma
Fitted
MAE
7.11
7.11
137.49
137.49
12.56
12.56
46.37
36.21
56.27
53.52
34.05
34.05
94.71
94.71
39.18
39.18
37.09
37.09
13.71
12.49
60-MONTH
Seasonal model
(Winters' method)
Automatic Alpha
Adaptation
Alpha Fitted
PARAMETERS
Seasonal model Alpha 0.2, Gamma

(Winters' method) 0.3 (SAP default)
Trend model (2nd

order exponential
smoothing)
Trend model (2nd

order exponential
smoothing)
MODEL (t+3)
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
2.0%
2.0%
0.8%
0.8%
3.5%
3.0%
3.7%
3.4%
1.6%
1.6%
6.6%
6.6%
3.2%
3.2%
3.8%
3.8%
1.4%
1.3%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL
COST
36.13
36.13
223.19
223.19
39.41
39.41
364.83
319.83
394.93
373.30
238.71
238.71
999.05
999.05
347.52
347.52
409.14
409.14
206.39
205.65
TOTAL
TOTAL
27.2% $ 3,259.31
26.4% $ 3,191.93
190
9.32
9.32
55.10
55.10
15.18
15.18
57.33
57.65
50.09
47.59
31.13
31.13
89.04
89.04
30.07
30.07
40.54
40.54
14.67
14.36
MAPE
24.7%
24.7%
15.6%
15.6%
29.3%
29.3%
22.8%
22.4%
37.8%
36.0%
14.5%
14.5%
22.7%
22.7%
26.4%
26.4%
27.7%
27.7%
28.7%
27.9%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.1%
1.1%
2.3%
2.3%
2.7%
2.6%
1.9%
1.9%
6.8%
6.8%
2.4%
2.4%
3.2%
3.2%
1.1%
1.1%
MEAN
39.2
39.0
MEAN
25.0%
24.7%
TOTAL
23.5%
23.3%
MAE
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.7%
0.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.7%
1.7%
2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
2.5%
1.9%
1.9%
5.8%
5.8%
2.6%
2.6%
3.3%
3.3%
1.0%
1.0%
TOTAL
COST
$
44.03
$
44.03
$
200.14
$
200.14
$
74.47
$
74.47
$
339.10
$
340.96
$
472.99
$
449.38
$
293.94
$
293.94
$ 1,055.97
$ 1,055.97
$
356.92
$
356.92
$
480.01
$
480.01
$
175.63
$
171.89
TOTAL
TOTAL
23.6% $ 3,493.21
23.4% $ 3,467.73
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.9%
1.9%
2.5%
2.5%
3.0%
3.0%
1.7%
1.7%
5.4%
5.4%
2.4%
2.4%
3.1%
3.1%
0.9%
1.0%
TOTAL
COST
47.87
47.87
215.27
215.27
80.38
80.38
326.15
326.15
481.11
473.10
256.96
256.96
997.04
997.04
350.20
350.20
446.78
446.78
147.68
162.04
MAE
9.58
9.58
76.18
76.18
16.28
16.28
46.95
46.95
50.30
49.64
36.15
36.15
90.19
90.19
26.59
26.59
34.04
34.04
12.03
12.75
MAPE
26.0%
26.0%
19.8%
19.8%
32.5%
32.5%
18.2%
18.2%
39.0%
38.8%
16.8%
16.8%
22.4%
22.4%
22.4%
22.4%
22.7%
22.7%
23.5%
24.8%
Revenue
Weighted
MAPE
0.5%
0.5%
1.8%
1.8%
1.3%
1.3%
1.8%
1.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.2%
2.2%
6.7%
6.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.6%
2.6%
0.9%
1.0%
TOTAL
TOTAL
23.2% $ 3,349.44
23.2% $ 3,355.79
MEAN
39.8
39.8
MEAN
24.3%
24.4%
TOTAL
22.7%
22.8%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Margin
Weighted
MAPE
0.8%
0.8%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2.7%
2.7%
2.2%
2.2%
5.7%
5.7%
2.2%
2.2%
2.7%
2.7%
0.8%
0.9%
TOTAL
COST
$
45.26
$
45.26
$
276.70
$
276.70
$
79.88
$
79.88
$
277.66
$
277.66
$
474.96
468.78
$
$
341.27
$
341.27
$ 1,069.65
$ 1,069.65
$
315.67
$
315.67
$
402.97
$
402.97
$
143.98
$
152.64
TOTAL
TOTAL
22.9% $ 3,428.01
23.0% $ 3,430.48
Appendix E Detailed Forecast Error Tables

56B
SKU level absolute error and absolute percentage error for each hold-out period
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
2.54
18.15%
2.54
18.15%
1.29
13.73%
1.29
13.73%
9.77
5.95%
9.77
5.95%
49.71
30.66%
49.71
30.66%
51.52
122.67%
51.52
122.67%
299.46
23.32%
299.46
23.32%
1.05
3.44%
1.05
3.44%
13.39
22.70%
13.39
22.70%
7.81
86.75%
7.81
86.75%
6.79
13.58%
6.79
13.58%
11.89
49.55%
11.89
49.55%
11.20
20.74%
11.20
20.74%
2.86
18.60%
2.86
18.60%
10.21
18.63%
10.21
18.63%
18.62
43.31%
18.62
43.31%
12.04
16.06%
12.04
16.06%
1.01
3.54%
1.01
3.54%
26.69
28.39%
26.69
28.39%
0.35
1.06%
0.35
1.06%
8.60
31.86%
8.60
31.86%
10.34
26.52%
10.34
26.52%
15.81
22.91%
15.81
22.91%
31.98
123.01%
31.98
123.01%
39.45
38.30%
39.45
38.30%
12.80
51.19%
12.80
51.19%
30.43
35.38%
30.43
35.38%
21.65
25.18%
21.65
25.18%
1.29
2.69%
1.29
2.69%
5.31
23.07%
5.31
23.07%
9.77
33.67%
9.77
33.67%
7.37
25.21%
7.37
25.21%
2.07
12.94%
2.07
12.94%
1.14
10.71%
1.14
10.71%
42.29
53.53%
42.29
53.53%
6.55
28.48%
6.55
28.48%
1.61
7.67%
1.61
7.67%
15.39
139.91%
15.39
139.91%
243.30
82.76%
243.30
82.76%
228.75
32.59%
228.75
32.59%
101.81
13.67%
101.81
13.67%

Aug-04
1.76
13.56%
0.08
0.60%
6.14
122.71%
7.81
156.12%
107.61
109.81%
138.45
141.28%
39.86
22.65%
19.44
11.05%
31.02
44.95%
46.02
66.70%
421.77
29.45%
270.23
18.87%
12.03
41.47%
18.18
62.69%
15.92
26.09%
9.15
15.00%
11.55
42.79%
9.24
34.21%
4.77
8.22%
3.22
5.55%
6.49
13.80%
0.41
0.87%
10.16
18.82%
3.58
6.64%
2.07
10.33%
0.62
3.12%
9.41
12.72%
0.28
0.37%
16.50
21.43%
7.43
9.65%
28.23
44.82%
41.92
66.54%
6.25
18.38%
2.09
6.14%
13.15
13.02%
30.27
29.97%
5.24
12.48%
0.27
0.65%
7.12
59.33%
9.99
83.23%
50.67
67.57%
47.03
62.70%
7.95
15.29%
16.94
32.58%
18.59
47.66%
27.22
69.80%
28.96
30.81%
19.20
20.43%
10.24
31.02%
16.72
50.68%
20.94
26.85%
12.38
15.87%
13.72
17.59%
4.08
5.23%
68.43
60.03%
61.60
54.03%
0.04
0.25%
2.65
14.71%
6.01
22.27%
2.86
10.61%
4.30
11.32%
0.75
1.98%
2.62
14.56%
5.71
31.74%
4.62
32.98%
3.21
22.93%
6.43
13.39%
0.19
0.40%
3.76
31.33%
6.12
51.03%
16.91
41.25%
13.30
32.43%
4.49
14.48%
0.51
1.65%
277.76
33.19%
193.87
23.16%
27.20
5.80%
101.63
21.67%
17.95
2.87%
114.40
18.30%
Sep-04
0.41
2.93%
0.41
2.93%
4.49
29.94%
4.49
29.94%
130.91
40.78%
130.91
40.78%
110.09
40.93%
110.09
40.93%
18.19
15.95%
18.19
15.95%
85.21
7.43%
85.21
7.43%
15.82
63.29%
15.82
63.29%
28.67
136.51%
28.67
136.51%
10.24
39.40%
10.24
39.40%
29.99
149.93%
29.99
149.93%
1.59
4.18%
1.59
4.18%
15.87
56.68%
15.87
56.68%
2.56
17.05%
2.56
17.05%
31.48
33.13%
31.48
33.13%
15.80
42.70%
15.80
42.70%
24.59
38.42%
24.59
38.42%
0.80
3.08%
0.80
3.08%
24.08
18.67%
24.08
18.67%
3.81
12.28%
3.81
12.28%
8.50
53.10%
8.50
53.10%
3.86
18.38%
3.86
18.38%
16.04
20.83%
16.04
20.83%
11.87
25.25%
11.87
25.25%
22.57
26.55%
22.57
26.55%
8.81
17.98%
8.81
17.98%
7.55
11.11%
7.55
11.11%
13.22
25.43%
13.22
25.43%
4.65
11.64%
4.65
11.64%
3.16
24.34%
3.16
24.34%
24.41
55.48%
24.41
55.48%
10.96
49.81%
10.96
49.81%
10.30
128.71%
10.30
128.71%
3.69
26.38%
3.69
26.38%
27.14
39.92%
27.14
39.92%
3.01
23.14%
3.01
23.14%
13.13
36.47%
13.13
36.47%
13.79
36.29%
13.79
36.29%
249.21
32.83%
249.21
32.83%
143.64
21.54%
143.64
21.54%
107.44
14.62%
107.44
14.62%
Oct-04
6.67
95.31%
6.67
95.31%
2.28
28.54%
2.28
28.54%
14.13
7.10%
14.13
7.10%
31.44
16.46%
31.44
16.46%
43.05
102.50%
43.05
102.50%
49.00
4.63%
49.00
4.63%
25.75
198.11%
25.75
198.11%
31.53
157.67%
31.53
157.67%
4.19
22.54%
4.19
22.54%
22.99
85.14%
22.99
85.14%
5.93
21.18%
5.93
21.18%
12.90
39.08%
12.90
39.08%
1.88
9.91%
1.88
9.91%
1.23
1.95%
1.23
1.95%
4.16
7.57%
4.16
7.57%
17.87
26.28%
17.87
26.28%
1.87
6.45%
1.87
6.45%
3.69
3.47%
3.69
3.47%
5.54
13.84%
5.54
13.84%
6.73
36.86%
6.73
36.86%
8.69
45.73%
8.69
45.73%
9.43
13.10%
9.43
13.10%
23.29
80.33%
23.29
80.33%
11.55
19.57%
11.55
19.57%
51.85
58.26%
51.85
58.26%
13.56
26.07%
13.56
26.07%
29.38
73.45%
29.38
73.45%
0.23
0.51%
0.23
0.51%
0.53
3.12%
0.53
3.12%
12.53
36.85%
12.53
36.85%
15.22
89.51%
15.22
89.51%
2.83
18.86%
2.83
18.86%
5.63
35.20%
5.63
35.20%
5.49
12.76%
5.49
12.76%
2.59
12.97%
2.59
12.97%
8.50
27.43%
8.50
27.43%
6.43
22.97%
6.43
22.97%
249.63
115.04%
249.63
115.04%
565.91
50.30%
565.91
50.30%
87.05
15.43%
87.05
15.43%
Nov-04
5.46
28.75%
3.43
18.06%
1.23
15.33%
2.61
32.63%
198.50
54.24%
173.38
47.37%
132.16
44.80%
107.73
36.52%
4.84
6.29%
17.12
22.23%
284.62
19.55%
108.91
7.48%
9.20
19.99%
3.68
7.99%
41.57
43.76%
33.56
35.32%
7.92
88.05%
10.46
116.25%
0.41
0.79%
7.33
14.10%
9.54
35.35%
15.02
55.65%
4.52
10.51%
11.65
27.08%
3.31
15.74%
0.65
3.10%
41.78
39.42%
32.15
30.33%
80.93
59.07%
72.52
52.93%
7.30
9.86%
19.49
26.34%
22.50
44.11%
18.22
35.73%
35.39
52.82%
50.75
75.74%
7.03
16.35%
1.63
3.80%
6.40
39.98%
9.76
60.98%
24.15
185.78%
29.72
228.64%
24.46
67.93%
33.52
93.12%
17.36
25.92%
9.92
14.80%
20.24
36.80%
31.52
57.32%
12.32
51.34%
17.77
74.04%
3.95
5.49%
6.25
8.69%
9.10
14.68%
19.77
31.88%
29.06
96.86%
37.92
126.39%
39.38
69.08%
36.73
64.44%
18.42
44.93%
15.04
36.67%
20.63
38.20%
15.62
28.93%
1.14
5.98%
1.54
8.12%
1.09
10.95%
2.76
27.59%
6.39
15.21%
13.65
32.49%
3.68
18.38%
1.23
6.13%
1.80
6.44%
2.13
7.60%
4.55
16.24%
1.03
3.67%
115.29
17.58%
34.19
5.21%
280.07
107.31%
361.23
138.40%
237.16
26.86%
140.28
15.89%
Dec-04
1.63
13.58%
1.10
9.14%
6.38
159.53%
4.30
107.62%
127.20
179.15%
87.56
123.32%
19.88
9.75%
56.70
27.80%
46.27
110.17%
28.62
68.14%
127.81
12.30%
105.49
10.16%
15.56
31.12%
22.45
44.89%
10.06
17.65%
19.45
34.12%
8.74
87.39%
4.99
49.91%
3.27
7.79%
5.78
13.77%
5.83
18.82%
1.53
4.94%
15.61
55.77%
6.89
24.61%
2.84
14.22%
6.28
31.38%
50.37
251.87%
36.30
181.50%
5.74
9.90%
16.19
27.92%
2.16
2.70%
17.73
22.16%
11.00
64.72%
5.40
31.78%
25.63
31.23%
4.09
4.98%
16.98
94.32%
9.98
55.45%
2.12
11.15%
2.11
11.08%
5.92
21.15%
0.86
3.08%
8.24
11.44%
20.99
29.15%
25.89
34.52%
35.71
47.62%
6.19
8.72%
9.25
13.02%
6.14
13.65%
13.91
30.92%
46.96
40.84%
60.57
52.67%
5.72
7.83%
19.17
26.27%
4.25
8.33%
6.80
13.34%
13.70
456.67%
10.36
345.33%
10.11
27.35%
15.49
41.88%
24.90
44.47%
31.12
55.57%
7.11
30.91%
10.29
44.73%
0.68
6.14%
1.66
15.09%
8.31
18.89%
2.15
4.89%
2.34
13.00%
5.47
30.40%
3.16
12.63%
2.47
9.89%
13.36
102.79%
8.09
62.24%
233.37
66.49%
116.49
33.19%
26.98
4.55%
140.24
23.64%
37.33
5.32%
170.06
24.26%
Jan-05
8.70
41.41%
11.16
53.13%
11.10
52.83%
13.08
62.27%
82.36
71.00%
42.69
36.80%
81.46
78.33%
44.37
42.66%
29.02
58.04%
13.21
26.43%
375.65
48.85%
146.72
19.08%
3.15
11.68%
2.88
10.65%
20.55
97.87%
12.24
58.30%
9.29
33.18%
13.03
46.54%
1.53
3.81%
6.80
16.95%
18.07
106.28%
11.05
65.02%
0.49
1.20%
7.81
19.04%
5.48
23.81%
8.98
39.05%
23.90
53.11%
10.12
22.49%
3.81
7.77%
6.76
13.79%
14.13
15.70%
29.30
32.56%
1.23
4.54%
4.41
16.36%
44.45
70.56%
22.96
36.45%
0.98
2.80%
6.21
17.76%
2.55
14.15%
1.56
8.68%
21.06
40.51%
27.25
52.41%
2.59
3.81%
15.67
23.05%
4.91
9.83%
13.93
27.86%
50.55
219.79%
35.84
155.83%
8.89
22.22%
0.89
2.23%
7.83
13.74%
5.14
9.01%
15.83
34.40%
3.46
7.52%
20.22
61.26%
9.57
29.01%
11.76
235.20%
8.41
168.16%
5.71
16.79%
11.37
33.44%
13.28
88.53%
7.62
50.82%
2.29
12.71%
5.43
30.17%
4.54
56.76%
2.03
25.41%
27.45
119.34%
17.36
75.47%
4.53
37.73%
1.22
10.19%
14.73
105.19%
8.98
64.15%
4.69
21.32%
0.65
2.94%
309.11
37.70%
411.29
50.16%
55.00
8.83%
80.60
12.94%
30.74
5.01%
98.01
15.99%
Feb-05
6.36
31.78%
4.31
21.55%
0.48
4.76%
0.95
9.53%
67.89
41.39%
102.67
62.60%
78.37
60.75%
109.47
84.86%
0.61
0.79%
12.41
15.91%
290.92
31.76%
471.96
51.52%
11.68
25.95%
6.68
14.84%
37.76
41.95%
29.92
33.25%
7.23
30.13%
4.72
19.65%
11.69
36.55%
18.25
57.03%
18.55
35.67%
13.53
26.01%
7.21
14.71%
0.94
1.91%
12.78
41.23%
10.05
32.41%
64.68
45.87%
53.23
37.75%
43.64
167.86%
54.09
208.04%
19.50
34.81%
30.82
55.04%
13.24
28.78%
8.32
18.10%
51.36
107.01%
66.27
138.06%
0.61
1.62%
4.99
13.14%
18.36
48.32%
15.42
40.57%
9.65
26.08%
5.55
15.00%
36.47
37.99%
27.54
28.69%
21.47
76.68%
28.89
103.18%
7.84
12.65%
18.32
29.55%
54.09
55.20%
47.50
48.47%
25.26
61.62%
35.20
85.86%
11.14
15.26%
1.86
2.55%
26.57
120.79%
33.86
153.91%
20.81
520.20%
24.53
613.23%
12.17
28.30%
7.54
17.54%
17.42
108.90%
22.44
140.23%
21.63
56.92%
19.17
50.46%
13.97
53.72%
12.16
46.78%
1.76
3.74%
9.07
19.30%
0.22
1.31%
2.81
16.50%
4.58
19.09%
8.87
36.95%
12.95
92.52%
17.00
121.40%
297.09
35.49%
216.10
25.82%
73.40
10.99%
15.79
2.36%
263.41
27.58%
159.67
16.72%
Mar-05
4.69
26.03%
7.35
40.82%
0.58
6.45%
2.26
25.16%
123.71
162.78%
83.77
110.22%
50.69
32.49%
9.35
5.99%
20.29
39.79%
6.03
11.83%
184.28
18.63%
50.38
5.09%
5.34
12.72%
12.67
30.17%
26.19
97.02%
15.56
57.61%
5.59
26.60%
8.67
41.28%
7.36
20.43%
1.32
3.65%
21.04
38.96%
27.63
51.17%
13.03
50.13%
5.23
20.11%
7.42
28.56%
11.14
42.84%
32.06
97.14%
19.04
57.71%
35.32
110.36%
21.85
68.29%
45.40
146.44%
30.12
97.15%
8.61
41.00%
2.69
12.80%
37.98
65.57%
18.80
32.45%
8.51
34.03%
1.81
7.23%
1.51
8.39%
2.39
13.29%
12.48
83.20%
6.98
46.56%
15.02
31.96%
2.62
5.57%
4.58
9.15%
6.34
12.68%
25.07
55.72%
11.06
24.58%
10.87
19.77%
19.70
35.82%
9.32
13.98%
5.88
8.82%
37.09
137.36%
24.27
89.89%
15.06
44.29%
5.25
15.43%
14.45
240.77%
10.36
172.62%
63.94
66.60%
70.35
73.28%
10.47
38.10%
2.88
10.48%
4.70
36.12%
1.16
8.90%
10.17
46.25%
12.54
57.00%
3.19
6.26%
12.75
25.01%
10.62
37.94%
14.10
50.35%
2.86
11.46%
2.71
10.83%
11.16
85.86%
6.33
48.69%
46.13
10.12%
54.29
11.91%
198.67
25.05%
317.54
40.04%
339.53
32.87%
478.22
46.29%
Apr-05
4.85
48.52%
4.85
48.52%
3.94
56.22%
3.94
56.22%
105.97
137.62%
105.97
137.62%
23.15
14.20%
23.15
14.20%
0.95
1.44%
0.95
1.44%
276.42
33.88%
276.42
33.88%
4.27
10.96%
4.27
10.96%
5.76
14.04%
5.76
14.04%
0.93
5.48%
0.93
5.48%
23.70
124.75%
23.70
124.75%
12.23
29.12%
12.23
29.12%
2.43
6.56%
2.43
6.56%
2.46
14.47%
2.46
14.47%
42.04
221.29%
42.04
221.29%
27.65
76.81%
27.65
76.81%
11.12
16.35%
11.12
16.35%
13.92
32.37%
13.92
32.37%
32.67
26.78%
32.67
26.78%
0.19
0.57%
0.19
0.57%
1.79
8.53%
1.79
8.53%
21.38
194.40%
21.38
194.40%
0.22
0.35%
0.22
0.35%
35.34
39.71%
35.34
39.71%
74.34
55.07%
74.34
55.07%
3.70
7.87%
3.70
7.87%
10.11
16.28%
10.11
16.28%
36.47
151.96%
36.47
151.96%
3.11
7.29%
3.11
7.29%
7.64
30.57%
7.64
30.57%
20.55
38.78%
20.55
38.78%
18.65
35.86%
18.65
35.86%
9.24
34.23%
9.24
34.23%
2.94
20.99%
2.94
20.99%
29.15
40.49%
29.15
40.49%
11.70
41.78%
11.70
41.78%
9.09
56.82%
9.09
56.82%
4.73
24.89%
4.73
24.89%
21.29
3.63%
21.29
3.63%
466.94
43.76%
466.94
43.76%
901.62
57.10%
901.62
57.10%
May-05
5.88
58.81%
8.26
82.63%
2.25
17.32%
0.64
4.92%
12.83
6.68%
14.05
7.32%
29.72
20.50%
55.93
38.57%
27.23
64.83%
37.61
89.55%
90.48
9.36%
249.05
25.76%
6.78
22.60%
12.30
41.00%
27.40
97.87%
35.71
127.55%
1.85
8.83%
1.02
4.84%
1.56
4.01%
7.65
19.61%
1.22
3.69%
6.35
19.24%
16.34
65.37%
22.54
90.17%
3.94
22.13%
7.21
40.45%
19.71
34.37%
31.26
54.53%
42.12
300.87%
50.54
361.00%
12.51
14.38%
1.33
1.53%
11.53
26.21%
6.66
15.14%
41.06
102.65%
53.22
133.05%
46.35
57.23%
41.16
50.81%
13.97
155.18%
17.41
193.46%
0.31
0.93%
5.30
16.07%
87.23
55.56%
76.76
48.89%
14.47
22.97%
7.19
11.42%
83.07
57.69%
73.93
51.34%
31.24
135.83%
39.38
171.21%
10.03
13.20%
0.14
0.18%
21.98
53.60%
31.42
76.64%
6.92
14.42%
0.76
1.59%
3.69
33.51%
5.89
53.53%
21.44
38.29%
16.26
29.03%
8.12
21.37%
3.64
9.57%
0.19
0.88%
3.08
13.98%
3.95
21.95%
1.84
10.24%
31.32
41.76%
24.77
33.03%
7.56
31.49%
5.09
21.22%
9.87
65.82%
13.60
90.70%
3.90
21.79%
7.17
40.06%
178.04
22.31%
85.04
10.66%
19.65
3.31%
111.70
18.80%
611.10
45.47%
501.16
37.29%
Jun-05
2.74
20.20%
2.74
20.20%
0.88
9.26%
0.88
9.26%
4.46
2.74%
4.46
2.74%
73.02
29.93%
73.02
29.93%
15.42
19.04%
15.42
19.04%
381.51
57.63%
381.51
57.63%
9.83
35.09%
9.83
35.09%
13.72
38.12%
13.72
38.12%
12.48
39.01%
12.48
39.01%
22.65
133.23%
22.65
133.23%
20.17
112.07%
20.17
112.07%
18.27
91.37%
18.27
91.37%
5.47
31.88%
5.47
31.88%
15.49
29.37%
15.49
29.37%
34.30
201.75%
34.30
201.75%
31.21
32.17%
31.21
32.17%
2.83
8.57%
2.83
8.57%
62.57
45.01%
62.57
45.01%
1.28
3.78%
1.28
3.78%
12.97
144.15%
12.97
144.15%
3.65
14.02%
3.65
14.02%
9.22
16.46%
9.22
16.46%
8.18
14.35%
8.18
14.35%
9.74
20.30%
9.74
20.30%
18.39
51.09%
18.39
51.09%
22.89
25.72%
22.89
25.72%
1.85
3.20%
1.85
3.20%
0.66
1.70%
0.66
1.70%
15.05
53.76%
15.05
53.76%
50.15
51.70%
50.15
51.70%
13.60
31.63%
13.60
31.63%
8.04
67.04%
8.04
67.04%
1.64
11.71%
1.64
11.71%
9.14
25.39%
9.14
25.39%
4.75
33.95%
4.75
33.95%
7.90
46.46%
7.90
46.46%
5.97
22.97%
5.97
22.97%
170.83
22.54%
170.83
22.54%
508.48
43.91%
508.48
43.91%
720.08
47.59%
720.08
47.59%
Averages
192
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
6.03
4.31
Holdout
MAPE
33.25%

Fitting Holdout Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
5.60
3.63
3.42
43.05%
40.78
82.11
68.27%
55.10
59.96
33.45%
26.90
24.03
48.87%
214.76
238.93
24.73%
15.46
10.04
39.70%
16.36
22.71
65.94%
6.51
7.32
42.51%
24.95
11.39
49.02%
16.35
11.05
39.05%
13.30
10.67
35.91%
5.27
4.42
20.66%
25.37
28.53
69.91%
44.51
27.38
87.45%
22.21
18.84
33.17%
9.40
7.90
23.48%
30.12
33.23
47.10%
6.97
8.07
20.86%
8.16
7.55
50.92%
14.38
14.35
60.35%
18.61
19.39
24.80%
13.72
18.16
42.45%
45.67
31.63
48.50%
19.30
19.11
42.95%
24.32
17.40
24.19%
25.71
18.10
46.66%
17.41
15.04
35.82%
10.08
34.25%
3.75
3.71
44.66%
41.02
75.65
60.26%
55.59
57.53
31.64%
23.61
24.18
46.86%
215.83
207.86
22.07%
12.85
11.30
43.59%
14.94
20.72
60.85%
6.17
7.32
42.16%
22.64
13.04
53.11%
14.64
10.61
36.58%
14.80
9.94
33.67%
5.38
5.01
23.69%
27.58
23.57
57.42%
42.54
27.49
92.81%
22.04
22.29
35.88%
9.73
5.69
15.84%
30.94
33.00
47.75%
7.11
6.44
15.03%
8.37
8.10
57.15%
14.15
14.22
60.29%
16.16
20.40
27.89%
12.51
19.99
47.50%
46.93
29.73
42.65%
19.51
20.95
49.98%
22.42
17.51
24.64%
25.57
17.22
43.27%
16.04
13.81
34.79%
11.29 140.88%
7.07
21.27
38.42%
11.69
13.74
48.57%
6.13
6.01
34.99%
2.44
4.51
27.81%
16.61
16.51
32.56%
4.71
5.11
25.96%
10.94
7.85
36.39%
10.61
8.45
50.17%
251.23
199.25
39.97%
114.14
216.22
29.83%
208.30
287.93
24.53%
8.90
10.88 130.57%
6.32
21.36
10.61
12.49
44.13%
5.49
6.57
37.49%
2.82
4.27
25.84%
16.49
16.10
30.22%
39.33
43.33%
38.24%
3.98
5.39
27.18%
10.02
7.69
35.62%
10.74
7.26
43.97%
261.22
170.46
34.74%
81.32
253.54
37.50%
224.99
35.63
4.41
35.03
298.32
38.65
26.93%
42.47%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Error
Percentage
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Error
Error
Error
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Error
Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
5.75
41.05%
5.75
41.05%
1.24
13.21%
1.24
13.21%
12.58
7.67%
12.58
7.67%
29.59
18.25%
29.59
18.25%
63.78
151.86%
63.78
151.86%
270.85
21.09%
270.85
21.09%
1.27
4.16%
1.27
4.16%
3.85
6.53%
3.85
6.53%
6.82
75.76%
6.82
75.76%
6.69
13.38%
6.69
13.38%
24.25
101.03%
24.25
101.03%
12.00
22.22%
12.00
22.22%
1.23
7.98%
1.23
7.98%
3.10
5.66%
3.10
5.66%
31.50
73.26%
31.50
73.26%
24.65
32.86%
24.65
32.86%
1.06
3.73%
1.06
3.73%
14.47
15.39%
14.47
15.39%
1.98
6.00%
1.98
6.00%
9.33
34.54%
9.33
34.54%
11.82
30.30%
11.82
30.30%
16.07
23.29%
16.07
23.29%
33.00
126.94%
33.00
126.94%
43.73
42.46%
43.73
42.46%
16.75
67.01%
16.75
67.01%
30.60
35.58%
30.60
35.58%
20.59
23.94%
20.59
23.94%
1.24
2.59%
1.24
2.59%
0.31
1.33%
0.31
1.33%
11.22
38.69%
11.22
38.69%
9.17
31.35%
9.17
31.35%
5.19
32.53%
5.19
32.53%
0.12
1.16%
0.12
1.16%
39.96
50.58%
39.96
50.58%
3.96
17.21%
3.96
17.21%
1.41
6.74%
1.41
6.74%
10.93
99.37%
10.93
99.37%
404.20
137.48%
404.20
137.48%
172.64
24.59%
172.64
24.59%
85.12
11.43%
85.12
11.43%
Alpha Fitted
Aug-04
3.79
29.12%
2.40
18.49%
6.71
134.28%
8.47
169.42%
150.44
153.51%
187.71
191.54%
1.78
1.01%
28.44
16.16%
46.07
66.77%
63.33
91.78%
372.98
26.05%
214.13
14.95%
23.09
79.61%
30.90
106.55%
11.43
18.74%
4.00
6.55%
13.85
51.31%
11.88
44.01%
16.67
28.74%
10.47
18.05%
6.19
13.16%
14.16
30.14%
9.24
17.12%
2.53
4.68%
3.32
16.58%
0.81
4.06%
13.75
18.58%
4.71
6.37%
11.00
14.28%
1.10
1.43%
40.48
64.26%
56.01
88.90%
5.87
17.27%
1.65
4.86%
1.93
1.91%
12.93
12.80%
0.06
0.15%
6.23
14.82%
7.66
63.85%
10.61
88.43%
57.09
76.12%
54.40
72.54%
16.58
31.89%
26.87
51.67%
18.62
47.75%
27.27
69.92%
29.34
31.21%
19.64
20.90%
19.43
58.89%
27.30
82.72%
19.11
24.50%
10.28
13.17%
13.24
16.97%
3.52
4.52%
69.89
61.30%
63.27
55.50%
3.33
18.49%
6.53
36.26%
4.53
16.76%
1.15
4.28%
7.12
18.75%
2.49
6.56%
7.68
42.64%
11.53
64.04%
4.06
29.00%
2.57
18.35%
1.13
2.36%
8.50
17.71%
4.27
35.55%
6.71
55.89%
16.63
40.56%
12.97
31.65%
6.74
21.74%
3.10
10.00%
162.32
19.39%
61.12
7.30%
87.30
18.61%
170.74
36.41%
118.70
18.99%
230.25
36.84%
Sep-04
1.55
11.06%
1.55
11.06%
4.99
33.28%
4.99
33.28%
127.89
39.84%
127.89
39.84%
58.04
21.58%
58.04
21.58%
15.50
13.60%
15.50
13.60%
8.03
0.70%
8.03
0.70%
21.53
86.14%
21.53
86.14%
37.04
176.36%
37.04
176.36%
11.08
42.63%
11.08
42.63%
19.34
96.71%
19.34
96.71%
0.06
0.16%
0.06
0.16%
16.41
58.60%
16.41
58.60%
1.39
9.29%
1.39
9.29%
35.20
37.05%
35.20
37.05%
8.79
23.75%
8.79
23.75%
27.78
43.40%
27.78
43.40%
0.23
0.88%
0.23
0.88%
44.21
34.27%
44.21
34.27%
4.07
13.14%
4.07
13.14%
15.76
98.51%
15.76
98.51%
1.09
5.17%
1.09
5.17%
10.06
13.07%
10.06
13.07%
13.55
28.84%
13.55
28.84%
26.16
30.77%
26.16
30.77%
7.79
15.90%
7.79
15.90%
2.17
3.19%
2.17
3.19%
14.71
28.29%
14.71
28.29%
2.68
6.71%
2.68
6.71%
2.66
20.49%
2.66
20.49%
25.42
57.77%
25.42
57.77%
8.47
38.51%
8.47
38.51%
10.01
125.18%
10.01
125.18%
2.19
15.68%
2.19
15.68%
23.98
35.27%
23.98
35.27%
3.60
27.72%
3.60
27.72%
14.56
40.43%
14.56
40.43%
17.99
47.35%
17.99
47.35%
250.94
33.06%
250.94
33.06%
75.92
11.38%
75.92
11.38%
72.94
9.92%
72.94
9.92%
Oct-04
7.84
111.95%
7.84
111.95%
1.72
21.50%
1.72
21.50%
19.26
9.68%
19.26
9.68%
2.47
1.29%
2.47
1.29%
30.54
72.72%
30.54
72.72%
157.05
14.86%
157.05
14.86%
26.16
201.23%
26.16
201.23%
38.48
192.39%
38.48
192.39%
6.40
34.41%
6.40
34.41%
17.24
63.84%
17.24
63.84%
3.54
12.63%
3.54
12.63%
15.82
47.93%
15.82
47.93%
3.08
16.22%
3.08
16.22%
5.51
8.75%
5.51
8.75%
10.49
19.08%
10.49
19.08%
16.07
23.63%
16.07
23.63%
2.00
6.90%
2.00
6.90%
17.40
16.35%
17.40
16.35%
5.83
14.59%
5.83
14.59%
11.31
61.93%
11.31
61.93%
10.86
57.14%
10.86
57.14%
4.12
5.72%
4.12
5.72%
15.68
54.07%
15.68
54.07%
20.13
34.12%
20.13
34.12%
55.24
62.07%
55.24
62.07%
23.10
44.42%
23.10
44.42%
35.57
88.93%
35.57
88.93%
0.03
0.07%
0.03
0.07%
2.03
11.97%
2.03
11.97%
10.63
31.27%
10.63
31.27%
12.91
75.95%
12.91
75.95%
2.07
13.80%
2.07
13.80%
4.74
29.63%
4.74
29.63%
17.09
39.74%
17.09
39.74%
0.46
2.29%
0.46
2.29%
9.76
31.48%
9.76
31.48%
12.13
43.33%
12.13
43.33%
192.72
88.81%
192.72
88.81%
482.96
42.93%
482.96
42.93%
136.16
24.14%
136.16
24.14%
Nov-04
5.01
26.35%
2.91
15.31%
0.45
5.61%
0.68
8.55%
223.82
61.15%
202.49
55.32%
112.23
38.04%
84.81
28.75%
6.09
7.90%
4.55
5.91%
141.70
9.73%
55.45
3.81%
11.51
25.02%
6.33
13.77%
35.36
37.22%
26.42
27.81%
10.00
111.09%
12.85
142.76%
1.44
2.77%
6.14
11.82%
11.64
43.11%
17.44
64.58%
8.20
19.06%
15.88
36.92%
3.21
15.27%
0.54
2.56%
40.93
38.61%
31.17
29.40%
77.57
56.62%
68.65
50.11%
0.39
0.53%
11.55
15.61%
20.78
40.75%
16.25
31.87%
27.53
41.08%
41.70
62.25%
5.24
12.17%
0.43
1.00%
5.50
34.38%
8.73
54.53%
37.60
289.20%
45.19
347.58%
24.59
68.30%
33.67
93.54%
24.93
37.21%
18.62
27.79%
30.96
56.29%
43.86
79.74%
9.41
39.22%
14.42
60.10%
4.43
6.15%
15.90
22.08%
14.69
23.69%
26.19
42.24%
46.77
155.89%
58.28
194.28%
38.44
67.44%
35.66
62.56%
15.96
38.94%
12.21
29.78%
20.37
37.73%
15.33
28.39%
1.50
7.91%
1.12
5.91%
2.52
25.18%
4.40
43.96%
12.54
29.85%
20.72
49.32%
3.92
19.61%
1.51
7.56%
2.32
8.28%
6.87
24.52%
5.18
18.50%
1.76
6.27%
49.98
7.62%
40.92
6.24%
301.54
115.53%
385.92
147.86%
217.37
24.62%
117.52
13.31%
Dec-04
2.00
16.63%
0.80
6.69%
6.97
174.34%
4.78
119.47%
153.34
215.97%
108.47
152.77%
18.43
9.04%
26.05
12.77%
48.71
115.97%
30.57
72.78%
198.74
19.13%
48.75
4.69%
19.87
39.74%
25.89
51.79%
15.11
26.51%
23.49
41.21%
12.22
122.15%
7.77
77.72%
5.48
13.05%
12.78
30.44%
7.35
23.70%
0.32
1.04%
12.54
44.79%
4.43
15.83%
3.49
17.45%
6.79
33.96%
58.82
294.11%
43.06
215.29%
8.87
15.30%
18.70
32.24%
10.38
12.98%
24.31
30.38%
11.28
66.35%
5.62
33.08%
28.28
34.46%
6.21
7.57%
16.66
92.54%
9.73
54.03%
0.03
0.14%
3.82
20.11%
9.00
32.14%
1.60
5.71%
3.87
5.38%
17.50
24.30%
30.67
40.89%
39.53
52.71%
14.52
20.45%
2.58
3.64%
4.43
9.84%
12.54
27.87%
42.44
36.91%
56.95
49.53%
7.65
10.49%
20.72
28.39%
8.88
17.40%
3.10
6.08%
13.01
433.51%
9.80
326.81%
3.23
8.73%
9.98
26.98%
27.71
49.49%
33.37
59.59%
9.87
42.89%
12.49
54.32%
2.20
19.99%
0.44
4.01%
16.72
38.00%
4.58
10.40%
3.34
18.54%
6.27
34.83%
7.93
31.71%
1.34
5.37%
16.79
129.18%
10.84
83.35%
325.30
92.68%
190.04
54.14%
17.29
2.91%
104.82
17.67%
3.50
0.50%
143.00
20.40%
Jan-05
10.22
48.66%
12.37
58.93%
11.39
54.25%
13.31
63.40%
96.70
83.36%
54.16
46.69%
103.97
99.97%
62.37
59.97%
18.33
36.66%
4.66
9.33%
385.65
50.15%
154.72
20.12%
4.74
17.55%
9.19
34.04%
10.83
51.58%
4.47
21.26%
7.45
26.60%
11.56
41.28%
7.94
19.81%
14.37
35.85%
16.59
97.61%
9.87
58.08%
3.92
9.57%
11.34
27.66%
5.35
23.24%
8.88
38.59%
26.55
59.01%
12.24
27.21%
2.83
5.77%
7.54
15.39%
21.13
23.47%
34.90
38.78%
1.63
6.06%
4.09
15.15%
45.55
72.31%
23.84
37.85%
2.11
6.03%
5.31
15.17%
0.65
3.60%
3.08
17.12%
23.27
44.75%
29.02
55.80%
1.91
2.80%
12.07
17.76%
12.71
25.42%
20.17
40.34%
50.34
218.85%
35.67
155.08%
22.82
57.05%
10.26
25.64%
6.11
10.72%
6.51
11.42%
7.70
16.74%
3.04
6.61%
20.08
60.86%
9.47
28.69%
11.46
229.24%
8.17
163.40%
0.14
0.40%
6.91
20.32%
8.10
54.00%
3.48
23.20%
4.01
22.27%
6.81
37.82%
6.49
81.07%
3.59
44.86%
29.58
128.61%
19.06
82.89%
5.12
42.63%
1.69
14.10%
18.04
128.87%
11.63
83.10%
6.97
31.68%
1.18
5.34%
354.71
43.26%
447.77
54.61%
223.89
35.94%
54.51
8.75%
23.17
3.78%
104.07
16.98%
Feb-05
5.44
27.21%
3.26
16.29%
1.13
11.31%
0.20
1.99%
119.13
72.64%
161.60
98.53%
118.95
92.21%
156.14
121.04%
5.69
7.29%
5.16
6.62%
377.09
41.17%
571.06
62.34%
11.83
26.30%
6.86
15.24%
29.15
32.39%
20.02
22.24%
8.75
36.48%
6.47
26.95%
9.27
28.96%
15.46
48.31%
21.44
41.22%
16.85
32.41%
9.20
18.78%
3.23
6.60%
11.81
38.09%
8.93
28.81%
53.62
38.03%
40.51
28.73%
64.96
249.83%
78.60
302.31%
15.23
27.19%
25.91
46.27%
7.10
15.44%
1.27
2.76%
41.46
86.38%
54.88
114.34%
1.82
4.78%
7.79
20.50%
20.57
54.13%
17.95
47.25%
15.50
41.88%
12.27
33.17%
41.67
43.41%
33.52
34.92%
22.94
81.93%
30.58
109.21%
2.91
4.70%
12.65
20.40%
53.01
54.10%
46.27
47.21%
26.20
63.89%
36.28
88.48%
15.49
21.21%
6.86
9.40%
20.48
93.09%
26.85
122.05%
31.09
777.15%
36.35
908.72%
5.86
13.62%
0.29
0.67%
21.30
133.10%
26.89
168.07%
21.71
57.13%
19.26
50.69%
13.58
52.21%
11.71
45.04%
0.72
1.53%
7.88
16.76%
1.44
8.47%
4.21
24.74%
6.19
25.77%
10.71
44.64%
14.52
103.74%
18.80
134.31%
284.09
33.94%
201.16
24.03%
90.28
13.51%
3.62
0.54%
205.43
21.51%
93.00
9.74%
Mar-05
4.62
25.65%
7.29
40.52%
2.37
26.31%
3.69
41.05%
109.67
144.31%
72.54
95.44%
71.74
45.99%
26.19
16.79%
7.39
14.48%
4.29
8.41%
187.22
18.93%
48.02
4.86%
1.10
2.62%
9.28
22.09%
32.08
118.82%
20.27
75.06%
8.16
38.88%
10.73
51.10%
5.60
15.57%
2.72
7.55%
23.24
43.03%
29.39
54.42%
8.38
32.22%
1.50
5.78%
6.44
24.76%
10.35
39.81%
23.42
70.98%
12.14
36.78%
43.82
136.92%
28.65
89.54%
44.26
142.77%
29.21
94.22%
7.84
37.32%
2.07
9.85%
28.14
48.59%
10.93
18.87%
4.79
19.18%
1.16
4.66%
0.15
0.84%
3.48
19.32%
9.49
63.25%
4.59
30.60%
15.45
32.87%
2.96
6.29%
11.99
23.99%
0.41
0.81%
22.71
50.46%
9.17
20.37%
10.01
18.20%
19.01
34.56%
22.47
33.69%
4.64
6.95%
37.63
139.36%
24.70
91.49%
12.39
36.45%
3.12
9.16%
14.35
239.09%
10.28
171.27%
58.93
61.39%
66.35
69.11%
18.42
67.04%
9.24
33.63%
6.37
49.03%
2.50
19.22%
10.23
46.50%
12.58
57.20%
4.99
9.78%
14.19
27.83%
9.76
34.86%
13.41
47.89%
2.80
11.21%
2.76
11.03%
8.39
64.56%
4.11
31.64%
4.15
0.91%
87.88
19.27%
208.15
26.25%
325.12
41.00%
305.75
29.60%
451.20
43.68%
Apr-05
6.88
68.82%
6.88
68.82%
6.23
89.04%
6.23
89.04%
76.66
99.56%
76.66
99.56%
7.89
4.84%
7.89
4.84%
11.55
17.48%
11.55
17.48%
173.14
21.22%
173.14
21.22%
4.49
11.50%
4.49
11.50%
0.59
1.43%
0.59
1.43%
2.80
16.48%
2.80
16.48%
21.91
115.31%
21.91
115.31%
17.56
41.81%
17.56
41.81%
0.42
1.14%
0.42
1.14%
4.14
24.36%
4.14
24.36%
32.18
169.34%
32.18
169.34%
27.50
76.38%
27.50
76.38%
14.03
20.63%
14.03
20.63%
15.02
34.93%
15.02
34.93%
46.53
38.14%
46.53
38.14%
1.81
5.34%
1.81
5.34%
2.92
13.89%
2.92
13.89%
26.13
237.52%
26.13
237.52%
2.00
3.17%
2.00
3.17%
32.52
36.54%
32.52
36.54%
87.83
65.06%
87.83
65.06%
4.30
9.15%
4.30
9.15%
12.28
19.78%
12.28
19.78%
32.07
133.63%
32.07
133.63%
2.49
5.83%
2.49
5.83%
11.70
46.82%
11.70
46.82%
17.34
32.72%
17.34
32.72%
20.30
39.04%
20.30
39.04%
8.26
30.58%
8.26
30.58%
3.96
28.30%
3.96
28.30%
36.56
50.78%
36.56
50.78%
12.63
45.10%
12.63
45.10%
5.46
34.14%
5.46
34.14%
2.67
14.06%
2.67
14.06%
38.47
6.55%
38.47
6.55%
464.62
43.54%
464.62
43.54%
904.24
57.27%
904.24
57.27%
May-05
8.31
83.15%
11.06
110.62%
1.25
9.63%
0.51
3.92%
33.59
17.49%
9.83
5.12%
6.65
4.58%
29.39
20.27%
23.31
55.51%
33.11
78.84%
11.12
1.15%
132.21
13.68%
9.33
31.11%
15.23
50.77%
35.83
127.96%
45.40
162.15%
0.73
3.48%
3.99
19.00%
2.18
5.60%
3.34
8.56%
4.10
12.43%
9.67
29.29%
17.74
70.96%
24.15
96.60%
7.85
44.03%
11.70
65.63%
35.11
61.25%
48.98
85.43%
32.27
230.50%
39.21
280.07%
16.93
19.46%
6.42
7.38%
7.74
17.59%
2.30
5.23%
22.85
57.13%
32.28
80.70%
46.14
56.97%
40.91
50.51%
18.23
202.59%
22.32
247.97%
4.07
12.33%
9.63
29.18%
77.76
49.53%
65.87
41.96%
19.60
31.11%
13.09
20.78%
90.02
62.51%
81.92
56.89%
45.11
196.11%
55.32
240.53%
16.95
22.31%
8.10
10.65%
22.85
55.73%
32.43
79.09%
16.14
33.62%
11.36
23.67%
1.98
17.96%
0.62
5.65%
16.97
30.30%
11.11
19.85%
13.51
35.56%
9.84
25.90%
5.59
25.41%
9.73
44.22%
0.63
3.49%
1.98
10.98%
34.25
45.67%
28.14
37.52%
7.88
32.83%
5.46
22.76%
7.63
50.85%
11.02
73.48%
0.26
1.46%
2.98
16.68%
75.35
9.44%
33.05
4.14%
38.53
6.49%
133.40
22.46%
540.49
40.22%
419.96
31.25%
Jun-05
4.61
33.95%
4.61
33.95%
0.97
10.17%
0.97
10.17%
42.45
26.04%
42.45
26.04%
90.35
37.03%
90.35
37.03%
22.26
27.48%
22.26
27.48%
308.91
46.66%
308.91
46.66%
12.56
44.85%
12.56
44.85%
10.91
30.30%
10.91
30.30%
10.60
33.14%
10.60
33.14%
19.44
114.36%
19.44
114.36%
26.87
149.25%
26.87
149.25%
15.05
75.25%
15.05
75.25%
8.67
50.58%
8.67
50.58%
12.39
23.50%
12.39
23.50%
22.71
133.61%
22.71
133.61%
44.88
46.27%
44.88
46.27%
3.75
11.37%
3.75
11.37%
78.41
56.41%
78.41
56.41%
3.67
10.80%
3.67
10.80%
13.99
155.46%
13.99
155.46%
0.93
3.58%
0.93
3.58%
8.43
15.05%
8.43
15.05%
10.57
18.54%
10.57
18.54%
1.86
3.87%
1.86
3.87%
26.08
72.46%
26.08
72.46%
26.44
29.71%
26.44
29.71%
10.71
18.58%
10.71
18.58%
6.16
15.79%
6.16
15.79%
20.36
72.73%
20.36
72.73%
31.80
32.78%
31.80
32.78%
17.14
39.86%
17.14
39.86%
8.89
74.06%
8.89
74.06%
5.50
39.27%
5.50
39.27%
9.46
26.28%
9.46
26.28%
7.58
54.13%
7.58
54.13%
6.72
39.52%
6.72
39.52%
10.22
39.30%
10.22
39.30%
157.85
20.82%
157.85
20.82%
451.75
39.01%
451.75
39.01%
604.06
39.92%
604.06
39.92%
Averages
193
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
5.92
5.50
Holdout
MAPE
43.63%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
5.67
3.93
3.79
48.58%
46.04
97.13
77.60%
57.22
51.84
31.15%
30.32
24.93
48.98%
196.45
216.04
22.57%
14.67
12.29
47.48%
19.00
21.72
68.35%
5.57
8.24
49.37%
25.98
11.10
43.17%
18.08
13.57
48.26%
15.00
10.74
34.80%
5.65
5.00
23.99%
29.41
28.38
68.74%
47.67
28.52
86.27%
22.58
23.02
38.12%
11.18
7.03
21.55%
28.49
33.06
41.87%
6.50
7.85
20.14%
9.01
8.84
60.32%
16.35
17.24
74.45%
21.35
18.54
24.54%
14.63
20.57
46.10%
52.99
35.04
51.73%
18.15
22.87
55.00%
28.88
19.36
27.57%
29.67
19.41
48.13%
19.79
17.27
40.80%
11.30
44.47%
4.43
3.90
47.92%
44.80
89.64
69.02%
57.59
50.15
29.90%
27.02
24.11
46.40%
220.08
178.53
19.08%
13.17
14.14
53.51%
17.38
19.58
63.61%
5.29
8.58
50.44%
23.83
12.49
47.01%
16.17
14.16
47.90%
16.90
10.23
33.27%
5.79
5.54
26.82%
32.09
23.43
56.13%
46.52
28.62
91.43%
25.02
26.31
40.69%
11.63
4.61
13.38%
28.90
31.98
41.24%
6.28
7.41
17.55%
9.34
10.27
71.59%
15.95
17.29
75.69%
19.19
19.43
27.56%
15.76
21.25
48.87%
54.15
32.10
44.44%
15.97
24.61
62.10%
26.39
19.44
27.91%
28.13
19.26
46.26%
19.10
15.67
39.20%
10.02
12.04 152.33%
12.56 161.35%
8.18
16.84
30.28%
14.21
15.38
51.70%
6.65
7.60
43.62%
2.00
4.68
30.96%
18.95
18.91
38.20%
4.95
5.33
28.25%
10.70
8.29
37.46%
8.09
9.40
51.19%
229.95
191.67
41.16%
121.38
217.91
31.73%
184.06
268.08
23.49%
6.99
17.03
11.79
14.05
47.50%
5.77
8.16
46.03%
2.53
4.48
28.20%
17.14
19.18
37.09%
4.20
5.62
29.52%
9.74
7.94
35.51%
8.32
8.06
44.25%
240.70
175.51
38.04%
91.53
235.50
36.35%
212.36
35.52
5.56
39.14
46.57%
35.84
280.13
38.15
30.35%
26.24%
45.87%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Jul-04
1.96
13.98%
1.96
13.98%
0.83
8.84%
0.83
8.84%
11.30
6.89%
11.30
6.89%
0.40
0.25%
0.40
0.25%
81.33
193.64%
81.33
193.64%
64.68
5.04%
64.68
5.04%
2.33
7.66%
2.33
7.66%
8.94
15.15%
8.94
15.15%
8.09
89.89%
8.09
89.89%
15.48
30.96%
15.48
30.96%
31.00
129.16%
31.00
129.16%
18.11
33.53%
18.11
33.53%
1.11
7.24%
1.11
7.24%
14.27
26.05%
14.27
26.05%
43.96
102.24%
43.96
102.24%
6.61
8.81%
6.61
8.81%
4.91
17.26%
4.91
17.26%
10.37
11.03%
10.37
11.03%
4.46
13.47%
4.46
13.47%
12.48
46.22%
12.48
46.22%
8.43
21.63%
8.43
21.63%
23.41
33.93%
23.41
33.93%
20.41
78.49%
20.41
78.49%
38.52
37.40%
38.52
37.40%
20.42
81.68%
20.42
81.68%
20.82
24.21%
20.82
24.21%
16.72
19.44%
16.72
19.44%
4.46
9.30%
4.46
9.30%
3.77
16.41%
3.77
16.41%
8.19
28.25%
8.19
28.25%
11.53
39.42%
11.53
39.42%
4.10
25.70%
4.10
25.70%
0.12
1.14%
0.12
1.14%
28.42
35.97%
28.42
35.97%
2.53
10.99%
2.53
10.99%
8.30
39.54%
8.30
39.54%
11.30
102.77%
11.30
102.77%
489.27
166.42%
489.27
166.42%
160.10
22.81%
160.10
22.81%
301.46
40.46%
301.46
40.46%

Aug-04
2.42
18.64%
0.84
6.43%
7.66
153.23%
9.56
191.21%
198.28
202.33%
242.73
247.68%
54.29
30.85%
88.83
50.47%
56.98
82.58%
75.87
109.96%
291.48
20.35%
120.40
8.41%
42.94
148.06%
53.73
185.27%
17.71
29.04%
11.22
18.39%
15.44
57.19%
13.71
50.76%
19.33
33.33%
13.53
23.33%
11.69
24.88%
20.50
43.61%
8.89
16.46%
2.12
3.93%
5.58
27.88%
3.41
17.06%
18.63
25.18%
10.33
13.96%
20.88
27.12%
12.46
16.19%
40.84
64.83%
56.42
89.55%
6.22
18.30%
2.05
6.04%
12.16
12.04%
1.16
1.15%
3.37
8.02%
10.17
24.22%
4.01
33.41%
6.41
53.42%
55.85
74.46%
52.97
70.63%
28.53
54.86%
40.60
78.09%
11.64
29.84%
19.23
49.32%
26.39
28.07%
16.24
17.28%
29.29
88.76%
38.63
117.07%
14.21
18.22%
4.64
5.95%
11.88
15.23%
1.96
2.51%
72.61
63.70%
66.41
58.25%
2.12
11.78%
5.14
28.55%
1.74
6.46%
2.04
7.57%
8.26
21.73%
3.80
9.99%
9.89
54.96%
14.08
78.20%
4.93
35.24%
3.57
25.53%
10.96
22.82%
19.80
41.25%
1.24
10.36%
3.23
26.91%
18.98
46.29%
15.68
38.24%
7.64
24.64%
4.14
13.34%
186.76
22.31%
89.22
10.66%
105.86
22.57%
192.09
40.96%
20.69
3.31%
117.54
18.81%
Sep-04
7.93
56.66%
7.93
56.66%
5.21
34.71%
5.21
34.71%
191.67
59.71%
191.67
59.71%
19.05
7.08%
19.05
7.08%
34.66
30.40%
34.66
30.40%
3.53
0.31%
3.53
0.31%
22.92
91.68%
22.92
91.68%
30.18
143.72%
30.18
143.72%
11.00
42.31%
11.00
42.31%
17.81
89.04%
17.81
89.04%
15.63
41.13%
15.63
41.13%
16.71
59.67%
16.71
59.67%
0.29
1.92%
0.29
1.92%
37.73
39.72%
37.73
39.72%
5.30
14.31%
5.30
14.31%
15.64
24.44%
15.64
24.44%
0.15
0.56%
0.15
0.56%
60.75
47.09%
60.75
47.09%
2.23
7.19%
2.23
7.19%
22.32
139.53%
22.32
139.53%
4.32
20.58%
4.32
20.58%
11.66
15.14%
11.66
15.14%
13.41
28.52%
13.41
28.52%
27.28
32.09%
27.28
32.09%
9.45
19.28%
9.45
19.28%
0.80
1.18%
0.80
1.18%
14.77
28.40%
14.77
28.40%
1.36
3.40%
1.36
3.40%
6.55
50.35%
6.55
50.35%
28.66
65.13%
28.66
65.13%
7.93
36.05%
7.93
36.05%
2.52
31.55%
2.52
31.55%
4.18
29.82%
4.18
29.82%
28.07
41.27%
28.07
41.27%
1.21
9.27%
1.21
9.27%
16.29
45.25%
16.29
45.25%
19.02
50.06%
19.02
50.06%
198.58
26.16%
198.58
26.16%
45.80
6.87%
45.80
6.87%
123.16
16.76%
123.16
16.76%
Oct-04
8.52
121.66%
8.52
121.66%
1.50
18.80%
1.50
18.80%
50.57
25.41%
50.57
25.41%
28.74
15.05%
28.74
15.05%
7.94
18.90%
7.94
18.90%
177.98
16.84%
177.98
16.84%
27.68
212.93%
27.68
212.93%
37.89
189.47%
37.89
189.47%
6.36
34.22%
6.36
34.22%
18.34
67.91%
18.34
67.91%
4.42
15.78%
4.42
15.78%
13.02
39.45%
13.02
39.45%
3.66
19.24%
3.66
19.24%
7.32
11.61%
7.32
11.61%
12.77
23.23%
12.77
23.23%
10.05
14.78%
10.05
14.78%
1.79
6.19%
1.79
6.19%
12.50
11.74%
12.50
11.74%
8.68
21.69%
8.68
21.69%
9.02
49.41%
9.02
49.41%
7.47
39.32%
7.47
39.32%
6.49
9.01%
6.49
9.01%
0.29
0.98%
0.29
0.98%
21.92
37.16%
21.92
37.16%
59.81
67.21%
59.81
67.21%
30.79
59.22%
30.79
59.22%
33.83
84.59%
33.83
84.59%
2.92
6.47%
2.92
6.47%
4.81
28.32%
4.81
28.32%
10.60
31.18%
10.60
31.18%
12.47
73.37%
12.47
73.37%
1.08
7.18%
1.08
7.18%
5.53
34.54%
5.53
34.54%
19.63
45.64%
19.63
45.64%
2.41
12.05%
2.41
12.05%
11.28
36.38%
11.28
36.38%
14.37
51.33%
14.37
51.33%
108.56
50.03%
108.56
50.03%
429.39
38.17%
429.39
38.17%
128.79
22.83%
128.79
22.83%
Nov-04
4.44
23.36%
2.26
11.87%
1.92
24.00%
1.01
12.60%
218.19
59.62%
196.02
53.56%
122.81
41.63%
96.98
32.87%
9.20
11.95%
0.97
1.25%
47.16
3.24%
164.17
11.28%
13.91
30.24%
9.10
19.78%
34.24
36.04%
25.13
26.45%
11.77
130.75%
14.88
165.36%
2.64
5.07%
10.83
20.83%
9.57
35.43%
15.05
55.75%
9.77
22.71%
17.68
41.12%
1.92
9.16%
0.94
4.46%
50.04
47.20%
41.64
39.29%
93.00
67.88%
86.40
63.06%
3.91
5.29%
6.60
8.92%
21.72
42.58%
17.33
33.97%
30.59
45.66%
45.23
67.51%
11.51
26.76%
6.78
15.77%
10.15
63.41%
14.07
87.92%
50.40
387.67%
59.91
460.82%
26.05
72.36%
35.36
98.21%
30.80
45.97%
25.37
37.86%
36.46
66.29%
50.18
91.23%
8.49
35.39%
13.37
55.70%
6.15
8.54%
17.87
24.82%
15.78
25.45%
27.44
44.26%
76.75
255.83%
92.76
309.21%
35.28
61.89%
32.02
56.17%
15.38
37.50%
11.53
28.13%
18.11
33.54%
12.73
23.57%
4.74
24.94%
2.60
13.69%
3.56
35.61%
5.59
55.95%
9.95
23.70%
17.75
42.25%
7.31
36.55%
5.41
27.03%
2.23
7.98%
1.63
5.83%
1.36
4.87%
5.77
20.60%
162.08
24.71%
284.79
43.41%
212.79
81.53%
283.86
108.76%
218.70
24.77%
119.05
13.48%
Dec-04
2.21
18.38%
0.64
5.30%
10.73
268.37%
7.79
194.69%
186.26
262.34%
134.81
189.87%
13.48
6.61%
51.58
25.29%
31.25
74.41%
16.60
39.53%
115.41
11.11%
115.41
11.11%
24.16
48.31%
29.33
58.65%
34.09
59.80%
38.67
67.84%
14.79
147.92%
9.83
98.34%
19.64
46.76%
24.11
57.41%
6.64
21.42%
0.89
2.86%
1.14
4.08%
4.69
16.73%
4.95
24.76%
7.96
39.81%
71.24
356.22%
52.99
264.97%
19.70
33.97%
27.36
47.18%
15.29
19.12%
28.24
35.29%
9.40
55.27%
4.12
24.22%
37.99
46.29%
13.98
17.03%
13.12
72.88%
6.89
38.30%
0.23
1.22%
3.99
20.97%
5.96
21.28%
10.37
37.03%
0.88
1.22%
13.70
19.02%
38.06
50.74%
45.44
60.59%
14.68
20.68%
2.45
3.46%
8.06
17.90%
15.44
34.32%
38.48
33.46%
53.79
46.77%
20.17
27.62%
30.73
42.10%
10.80
21.18%
18.84
36.94%
13.56
451.83%
10.24
341.47%
2.81
7.61%
5.14
13.91%
31.83
56.83%
36.66
65.47%
12.25
53.26%
14.40
62.61%
2.99
27.18%
0.19
1.75%
10.36
23.54%
0.51
1.17%
5.22
28.98%
7.77
43.18%
10.55
42.20%
3.44
13.76%
22.34
171.82%
15.27
117.46%
429.47
122.36%
273.38
77.89%
25.06
4.22%
98.60
16.62%
14.15
2.02%
151.52
21.62%
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
11.98
1.25
3.44
7.30
8.74
4.61
57.04%
6.27%
19.09%
73.02%
87.40%
34.01%
13.78
1.56
6.35
7.30
11.55
4.61
65.63%
7.79%
35.28%
73.02% 115.51%
34.01%
11.04
0.94
3.34
12.87
0.85
1.42
52.59%
9.37%
37.14% 183.81%
6.50%
14.92%
13.03
0.42
4.47
12.87
0.98
1.42
62.07%
4.23%
49.71% 183.81%
7.52%
14.92%
94.62
61.01
26.10
32.23
69.57
69.87
81.57%
37.20%
34.35%
41.86%
36.23%
42.86%
52.50
94.76
5.68
32.23
51.20
69.87
45.26%
57.78%
7.48%
41.86%
26.67%
42.86%
86.92
151.29
48.91
3.11
10.35
89.69
83.58%
117.28%
31.35%
1.91%
7.14%
36.76%
48.74
193.34
7.93
3.11
9.85
89.69
46.87%
149.87%
5.08%
1.91%
6.79%
36.76%
2.90
20.35
2.09
16.87
11.24
29.76
5.79%
26.09%
4.11%
25.53%
26.77%
36.74%
12.32
11.71
11.88
16.87
19.23
29.76
24.63%
15.01%
23.29%
25.53%
45.78%
36.74%
331.56
458.64
135.06
120.61
47.93
318.84
43.12%
50.07%
13.66%
14.78%
4.96%
48.16%
111.44
664.84
89.75
120.61
89.88
318.84
14.49%
72.58%
9.07%
14.78%
9.30%
48.16%
13.28
0.57
6.81
7.79
10.59
13.13
49.18%
1.26%
16.20%
19.98%
35.29%
46.90%
16.02
7.40
2.96
7.79
16.68
13.13
59.34%
16.45%
7.04%
19.98%
55.59%
46.90%
0.67
1.95
33.49
12.35
53.17
20.93
3.17%
2.17% 124.03%
30.12% 189.89%
58.13%
4.73
11.25
21.39
12.35
65.34
20.93
22.54%
12.51%
79.23%
30.12% 233.37%
58.13%
8.69
8.48
10.26
10.03
3.83
7.74
31.04%
35.34%
48.84%
59.01%
18.24%
24.18%
12.55
6.15
12.40
10.03
7.56
7.74
44.83%
25.65%
59.07%
59.01%
35.98%
24.18%
14.24
0.68
4.12
21.09
6.10
17.99
35.53%
2.11%
11.45% 111.02%
15.63% 105.83%
19.41
5.58
3.90
21.09
1.16
17.99
48.42%
17.43%
10.84% 111.02%
2.98% 105.83%
13.06
23.72
23.63
14.83
16.02
34.58
76.84%
45.62%
43.75%
35.31%
48.56% 192.11%
7.05
19.48
29.70
14.83
23.38
34.58
41.47%
37.46%
55.00%
35.31%
70.84% 192.11%
8.91
14.61
3.96
3.61
19.37
7.17
21.74%
29.82%
15.22%
9.76%
77.47%
35.87%
15.33
9.45
2.04
3.61
26.02
7.17
37.39%
19.29%
7.83%
9.76% 104.09%
35.87%
6.10
11.79
6.10
5.73
13.03
8.86
26.51%
38.02%
23.46%
33.70%
73.13%
51.68%
9.48
8.90
10.08
5.73
17.66
8.86
41.21%
28.73%
38.77%
33.70%
99.10%
51.68%
18.37
62.45
5.04
23.41
9.05
16.32
40.82%
44.29%
15.28% 123.19%
15.79%
30.95%
5.69
50.67
2.57
23.41
19.01
16.32
12.65%
35.93%
7.78% 123.19%
33.16%
30.95%
7.89
90.19
26.83
19.76
26.95
16.21
16.10%
346.90%
83.86%
54.88% 192.47%
95.35%
16.11
107.62
15.07
19.76
33.09
16.21
32.88%
413.93%
47.08%
54.88% 236.34%
95.35%
22.19
11.92
45.91
21.43
30.64
59.17
24.65%
21.28% 148.11%
31.52%
35.21%
61.00%
35.75
22.11
30.53
21.43
22.18
59.17
39.72%
39.48%
98.49%
31.52%
25.50%
61.00%
0.08
6.46
3.45
20.73
15.44
10.95
0.28%
14.05%
16.44%
48.21%
35.09%
33.18%
5.46
0.53
6.96
20.73
11.16
10.95
20.23%
1.15%
33.15%
48.21%
25.35%
33.18%
43.97
53.92
26.86
57.76
8.29
81.14
69.80%
112.33%
46.36%
47.35%
20.74%
58.37%
22.58
69.20
9.90
57.76
15.54
81.14
35.84%
144.18%
17.09%
47.35%
38.85%
58.37%
1.25
4.61
6.55
2.51
46.88
6.10
3.57%
12.13%
26.21%
7.39%
57.88%
17.95%
6.00
11.00
10.24
2.51
41.76
6.10
17.15%
28.95%
40.96%
7.39%
51.56%
17.95%
0.32
21.78
0.89
2.48
13.26
9.16
1.76%
57.30%
4.93%
11.80% 147.28% 101.75%
3.35
19.34
2.89
2.48
16.59
9.16
18.59%
50.90%
16.05%
11.80% 184.37% 101.75%
31.34
20.43
10.62
28.40
4.17
0.66
60.26%
55.21%
70.80% 258.15%
12.64%
2.53%
35.47
17.94
5.50
28.40
9.75
0.66
68.21%
48.49%
36.64% 258.15%
29.54%
2.53%
4.39
36.62
24.07
7.83
80.08
4.93
6.46%
38.15%
51.22%
12.43%
51.01%
8.80%
10.09
27.72
9.86
7.83
68.55
4.93
14.83%
28.87%
20.98%
12.43%
43.66%
8.80%
18.17
16.01
20.78
38.22
17.94
8.14
36.34%
57.17%
41.56%
42.95%
28.48%
14.27%
24.53
22.61
6.62
38.22
11.19
8.14
49.07%
80.75%
13.25%
42.95%
17.76%
14.27%
60.50
2.54
25.55
65.73
81.06
1.39
263.04%
4.09%
56.79%
48.69%
56.29%
2.90%
43.80
6.38
11.44
65.73
71.62
1.39
190.43%
10.30%
25.43%
48.69%
49.73%
2.90%
37.24
72.75
19.63
10.62
39.95
19.34
93.10%
74.24%
35.69%
22.60% 173.69%
53.73%
21.79
68.97
26.70
10.62
49.39
19.34
54.48%
70.37%
48.55%
22.60% 214.74%
53.73%
2.30
30.46
13.94
2.71
21.45
25.77
4.03%
74.29%
20.91%
4.37%
28.23%
28.95%
9.56
41.18
2.18
2.71
13.27
25.77
16.77%
100.43%
3.28%
4.37%
17.46%
28.95%
3.26
12.66
39.92
25.80
22.46
15.62
7.08%
17.34% 147.85% 107.52%
54.79%
27.10%
11.81
3.61
26.53
25.80
31.98
15.62
25.66%
4.94%
98.28% 107.52%
78.01%
27.10%
9.65
17.25
13.32
1.01
18.37
5.39
29.25%
78.42%
39.18%
2.36%
38.28%
13.83%
1.12
23.14
3.86
1.01
13.93
5.39
3.40%
105.18%
11.35%
2.36%
29.02%
13.83%
11.97
40.63
1.13
20.06
6.57
22.60
239.35% 1015.74%
18.91%
80.24%
59.71%
80.73%
8.57
47.32
2.11
20.06
5.90
22.60
171.48% 1183.11%
35.13%
80.24%
53.66%
80.73%
0.17
8.64
59.90
18.61
20.06
9.32
0.50%
20.08%
62.40%
35.12%
35.83%
9.61%
6.66
3.48
67.12
18.61
14.67
9.32
19.60%
8.09%
69.92%
35.12%
26.20%
9.61%
4.22
33.57
27.38
32.44
21.20
17.43
28.16%
209.79%
99.67%
62.39%
55.79%
40.53%
0.38
41.00
16.41
32.44
18.68
17.43
2.53%
256.25%
59.73%
62.39%
49.16%
40.53%
4.81
22.46
8.84
8.86
0.91
1.86
26.71%
59.09%
68.02%
32.80%
4.12%
15.54%
7.45
20.12
4.47
8.86
2.26
1.86
41.37%
52.96%
34.42%
32.80%
10.26%
15.54%
7.97
15.98
11.22
3.76
4.90
8.11
99.58%
61.46%
51.00%
26.87%
27.21%
57.90%
4.77
14.48
13.38
3.76
8.33
8.11
59.67%
55.68%
60.80%
26.87%
46.29%
57.90%
24.57
1.49
6.52
44.30
28.27
12.77
106.81%
3.17%
12.79%
61.53%
37.69%
35.48%
15.05
5.34
15.42
44.30
21.26
12.77
65.45%
11.35%
30.23%
61.53%
28.35%
35.48%
1.99
2.23
9.95
11.90
7.19
5.76
16.62%
13.10%
35.55%
42.50%
29.95%
41.14%
0.80
5.11
13.56
11.90
4.67
5.76
6.71%
30.07%
48.44%
42.50%
19.44%
41.14%
17.08
6.93
3.01
0.35
8.86
7.16
122.00%
28.87%
12.06%
2.16%
59.07%
42.14%
10.86
11.57
2.59
0.35
12.44
7.16
77.60%
48.20%
10.35%
2.16%
82.93%
42.14%
6.95
14.67
8.74
2.99
2.77
12.95
31.58%
104.78%
67.22%
15.73%
15.51%
49.81%
1.16
18.97
4.39
2.99
0.51
12.95
5.26%
135.50%
33.78%
15.73%
2.84%
49.81%
177.97
183.02
22.84
215.28
24.04
174.16
21.70%
21.87%
5.01%
36.67%
3.01%
22.98%
306.37
84.93
109.47
215.28
147.35
174.16
37.36%
10.15%
24.01%
36.67%
18.47%
22.98%
247.50
364.66
325.38
553.18
19.43
389.06
39.73%
54.59%
41.03%
51.84%
3.27%
33.60%
73.40
319.15
418.91
553.18
111.44
389.06
11.78%
47.78%
52.83%
51.84%
18.76%
33.60%
8.68
156.55
307.22
870.17
459.19
523.56
1.42%
16.39%
29.74%
55.11%
34.17%
34.60%
115.66
36.79
452.37
870.17
326.47
523.56
18.87%
3.85%
43.79%
55.11%
24.29%
34.60%
Averages
194
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
6.63
5.40
Holdout
MAPE
44.13%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
6.62
4.23
4.86
67.69%
45.79
100.81
74.20%
60.71
52.42
31.62%
30.06
25.38
44.74%
191.15
176.07
19.30%
17.27
15.51
58.97%
23.58
23.80
73.39%
4.89
9.71
59.91%
29.96
13.12
46.22%
18.98
17.07
59.17%
15.22
10.44
30.48%
5.95
5.76
28.06%
32.39
27.82
64.69%
47.32
31.95
88.19%
31.17
23.63
38.25%
13.56
8.44
23.95%
25.49
36.36
44.07%
7.20
9.27
22.93%
9.60
8.84
54.83%
19.01
19.00
85.38%
23.32
21.25
29.55%
15.91
19.49
37.94%
62.33
33.50
54.46%
18.86
27.92
63.61%
30.17
17.32
25.47%
28.25
19.41
46.87%
20.46
19.49
46.77%
11.71
45.59%
4.46
4.92
65.26%
47.39
94.44
67.09%
58.60
53.19
31.52%
29.57
26.59
47.06%
219.73
170.13
18.45%
14.48
17.42
65.10%
21.67
24.00
74.74%
4.72
10.03
60.80%
27.82
14.10
48.83%
16.97
18.04
60.04%
17.28
11.33
34.06%
6.29
6.51
31.91%
32.29
23.50
53.27%
49.58
33.01
95.56%
33.39
26.23
39.79%
14.13
7.18
20.79%
28.27
33.34
41.44%
7.22
9.74
23.72%
9.94
10.17
65.08%
18.41
20.10
91.13%
21.84
21.68
31.91%
16.61
19.62
39.48%
58.25
29.75
45.51%
17.53
29.50
69.98%
25.74
18.62
27.78%
26.02
20.07
46.90%
20.88
19.60
49.06%
10.24
14.09 177.14%
14.09 176.27%
8.49
15.34
28.31%
15.84
18.86
63.11%
7.51
6.86
33.66%
2.82
6.10
40.63%
21.13
18.77
37.53%
4.87
4.91
23.92%
10.21
9.25
40.33%
7.50
10.43
57.51%
247.70
197.67
43.60%
116.30
239.85
33.35%
205.40
261.03
23.46%
7.61
15.50
14.52
17.62
59.87%
6.86
6.98
33.86%
3.10
6.00
37.99%
18.10
19.03
36.66%
4.23
5.36
26.48%
9.20
8.47
36.86%
8.23
9.24
49.87%
263.42
206.78
43.68%
93.17
256.25
37.56%
222.86
37.47
5.61
39.68
49.16%
37.93
272.21
40.40
28.56%
26.21%
49.66%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
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Error
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Error
Error
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
1.22
0.45
0.57
6.47
5.56
1.47
7.93
8.74%
3.42%
4.10% 92.42%
29.28%
12.28%
37.77%
1.22
1.44
0.57
6.47
3.55
1.22
10.54
8.74%
11.06%
4.10% 92.42%
18.68%
10.18%
50.21%
0.94
5.56
4.65
2.27
1.90
6.24
10.90
10.00% 111.26%
31.00% 28.44%
23.73% 155.96%
51.91%
0.94
7.15
4.65
2.27
3.38
4.19
12.92
10.00% 142.95%
31.00% 28.44%
42.29% 104.77%
61.53%
11.60
91.91
136.25
15.85
188.93
115.67
71.44
7.07%
93.78%
42.45%
7.96%
51.62% 162.91%
61.58%
11.60
120.40
136.25
15.85
162.37
78.33
33.95
7.07% 122.85%
42.45%
7.96%
44.36% 110.33%
29.27%
54.24
56.91
139.00
58.53
159.42
59.48
43.38
33.45%
32.33%
51.67% 30.64%
54.04%
29.16%
41.71%
54.24
39.05
139.00
58.53
139.08
88.38
13.91
33.45%
22.18%
51.67% 30.64%
47.15%
43.33%
13.37%
46.60
23.00
23.08
45.15
8.86
45.73
34.88
110.95%
33.33%
20.25% 107.51%
11.50% 108.89%
69.75%
46.60
36.80
23.08
45.15
21.74
28.19
17.90
110.95%
53.33%
20.25% 107.51%
28.23%
67.11%
35.80%
322.17
456.43
147.06
35.43
404.91
18.79
288.47
25.09%
31.87%
12.82%
3.35%
27.81%
1.81%
37.51%
322.17
310.09
147.06
35.43
247.24
192.71
76.98
25.09%
21.65%
12.82%
3.35%
16.98%
18.55%
10.01%
2.02
7.73
12.00
23.50
10.04
14.77
6.84
6.61%
26.65%
48.00% 180.76%
21.82%
29.54%
25.34%
2.02
13.24
12.00
23.50
4.64
21.81
0.07
6.61%
45.64%
48.00% 180.76%
10.09%
43.63%
0.27%
17.60
19.45
22.75
24.92
48.93
12.60
21.88
29.83%
31.89% 108.33% 124.62%
51.50%
22.11% 104.17%
17.60
13.22
22.75
24.92
42.02
21.48
13.30
29.83%
21.68% 108.33% 124.62%
44.23%
37.68%
63.33%
7.90
10.73
9.67
2.83
7.57
7.20
10.71
87.78%
39.73%
37.18% 15.20%
84.13%
72.00%
38.26%
7.90
8.29
9.67
2.83
10.06
3.76
14.17
87.78%
30.69%
37.18% 15.20% 111.75%
37.60%
50.61%
13.80
3.55
39.50
31.77
6.71
14.13
14.22
27.60%
6.11% 197.50% 117.66%
12.91%
33.65%
35.48%
13.80
12.78
39.50
31.77
15.52
2.91
3.36
27.60%
22.03% 197.50% 117.66%
29.85%
6.92%
8.38%
8.54
12.06
4.30
4.95
6.96
3.23
16.84
35.57%
25.65%
11.32% 17.69%
25.76%
10.40%
99.04%
8.54
6.81
4.30
4.95
12.05
3.62
10.07
35.57%
14.50%
11.32% 17.69%
44.63%
11.68%
59.23%
12.10
11.55
14.58
10.46
1.21
15.13
1.50
22.41%
21.38%
52.08% 31.70%
2.82%
54.05%
3.66%
12.10
5.18
14.58
10.46
7.85
6.51
7.00
22.41%
9.59%
52.08% 31.70%
18.25%
23.24%
17.07%
2.64
2.11
2.74
1.45
3.27
2.45
5.36
17.19%
10.54%
18.25%
7.61%
15.57%
12.26%
23.31%
2.64
0.57
2.74
1.45
0.61
5.96
8.89
17.19%
2.87%
18.25%
7.61%
2.91%
29.81%
38.65%
11.10
8.39
29.91
1.29
41.02
46.99
21.74
20.28%
11.33%
31.49%
2.05%
38.69% 234.93%
48.30%
11.10
1.46
29.91
1.29
31.27
33.59
8.39
20.28%
1.97%
31.49%
2.05%
29.50% 167.94%
18.64%
8.00
25.55
12.00
6.46
86.43
8.33
1.00
18.60%
33.18%
32.43% 11.75%
63.09%
14.37%
2.04%
8.00
17.83
12.00
6.46
78.84
18.27
9.00
18.60%
23.15%
32.43% 11.75%
57.55%
31.49%
18.37%
7.30
21.64
20.08
15.38
7.93
0.73
10.06
9.73%
34.34%
31.38% 22.62%
10.71%
0.92%
11.18%
7.30
34.33
20.08
15.38
20.22
15.41
26.05
9.73%
54.49%
31.38% 22.62%
27.32%
19.27%
28.94%
0.64
6.09
1.50
1.43
22.97
10.90
0.99
2.27%
17.91%
5.77%
4.92%
45.04%
64.10%
3.67%
0.64
1.90
1.50
1.43
18.76
5.32
4.60
2.27%
5.60%
5.77%
4.92%
36.79%
31.28%
17.07%
34.38
23.71
9.02
11.56
49.77
35.51
53.89
36.58%
23.48%
6.99% 10.86%
74.29%
43.26%
85.54%
34.38
42.42
9.02
11.56
67.29
11.99
30.51
36.58%
42.00%
6.99% 10.86% 100.43%
14.61%
48.43%
1.26
8.51
1.95
7.04
9.39
15.43
1.16
3.79%
20.26%
6.29% 17.59%
21.84%
85.75%
3.30%
1.26
3.48
1.95
7.04
4.35
8.75
7.92
3.79%
8.29%
6.29% 17.59%
10.12%
48.60%
22.64%
8.87
6.48
4.78
2.99
4.59
1.29
2.16
32.84%
54.03%
29.86% 16.38%
28.72%
6.78%
12.01%
8.87
9.26
4.78
2.99
7.68
2.77
1.87
32.84%
77.14%
29.86% 16.38%
48.02%
14.58%
10.39%
8.60
46.73
7.17
10.00
19.29
3.53
21.25
22.05%
62.30%
34.13% 52.63% 148.35%
12.62%
40.87%
8.60
42.49
7.17
10.00
24.13
2.77
27.40
22.05%
56.65%
34.13% 52.63% 185.60%
9.90%
52.69%
14.40
5.55
18.83
13.00
22.50
12.27
7.50
20.87%
10.66%
24.46% 18.06%
62.50%
17.04%
11.03%
14.40
14.18
18.83
13.00
31.28
24.21
19.60
20.87%
27.26%
24.46% 18.06%
86.88%
33.63%
28.82%
30.90
17.82
10.42
26.00
13.14
21.60
1.88
118.85%
45.69%
22.16% 89.66%
19.62%
28.80%
3.75%
30.90
26.34
10.42
26.00
5.06
32.28
8.50
118.85%
67.54%
22.16% 89.66%
7.56%
43.04%
17.00%
34.80
25.55
17.92
10.85
16.57
1.47
48.63
33.79%
27.18%
21.08% 18.38%
30.13%
2.07% 211.41%
34.80
15.28
17.92
10.85
27.31
13.03
34.30
33.79%
16.25%
21.08% 18.38%
49.65%
18.35% 149.13%
11.30
5.91
11.00
52.00
12.71
7.47
0.75
45.20%
17.91%
22.45% 58.43%
52.98%
16.59%
1.88%
11.30
11.75
11.00
52.00
18.22
14.97
7.40
45.20%
35.59%
22.45% 58.43%
75.92%
33.27%
18.50%
26.00
17.73
6.58
11.31
7.64
50.40
6.81
30.23%
22.73%
9.68% 21.75%
10.62%
43.83%
11.95%
26.00
8.69
6.58
11.31
2.01
63.32
5.95
30.23%
11.14%
9.68% 21.75%
2.79%
55.06%
10.44%
16.70
9.18
16.83
30.15
8.71
3.53
21.63
19.42%
11.77%
32.37% 75.38%
14.06%
4.84%
47.01%
16.70
1.14
16.83
30.15
19.32
17.43
8.10
19.42%
1.46%
32.37% 75.38%
31.16%
23.87%
17.61%
3.00
63.91
9.33
4.14
23.86
1.93
19.44
6.25%
56.06%
23.33%
9.17%
79.52%
3.79%
58.92%
3.00
56.40
9.33
4.14
31.94
8.65
8.95
6.25%
49.47%
23.33%
9.17% 106.45%
16.97%
27.14%
5.63
0.48
3.81
0.29
39.66
14.05
12.05
24.47%
2.66%
29.31%
1.68%
69.58% 468.27% 240.90%
5.63
2.15
3.81
0.29
37.06
10.64
8.64
24.47%
11.94%
29.31%
1.68%
65.02% 354.62% 172.72%
7.10
4.55
22.25
11.69
18.36
12.91
9.31
24.48%
16.84%
50.57% 34.39%
44.77%
34.91%
27.39%
7.10
1.18
22.25
11.69
14.96
17.72
14.25
24.48%
4.36%
50.57% 34.39%
36.49%
47.93%
41.91%
9.51
0.76
14.63
19.07
17.80
20.74
19.12
32.52%
2.01%
66.52% 112.15%
32.96%
37.04% 127.44%
9.51
4.82
14.63
19.07
12.37
27.79
12.29
32.52%
12.69%
66.52% 112.15%
22.90%
49.63%
81.95%
1.94
1.09
10.25
3.07
0.93
5.60
0.75
12.16%
6.06% 128.13% 20.49%
4.90%
24.36%
4.18%
1.94
3.95
10.25
3.07
1.78
9.08
4.20
12.16%
21.97% 128.13% 20.49%
9.36%
39.49%
23.34%
1.44
4.84
4.44
6.36
0.05
0.78
2.58
13.60%
34.60%
31.71% 39.74%
0.48%
7.07%
32.29%
1.44
3.47
4.44
6.36
1.45
2.82
0.47
13.60%
24.79%
31.71% 39.74%
14.45%
25.66%
5.83%
39.86
6.87
27.13
0.80
2.10
1.69
22.52
50.46%
14.32%
39.90%
1.86%
5.00%
3.85%
97.93%
39.86
0.70
27.13
0.80
8.71
7.45
13.42
50.46%
1.47%
39.90%
1.86%
20.75%
16.92%
58.35%
7.10
3.64
2.75
3.69
4.00
2.20
4.06
30.87%
30.30%
21.15% 18.46%
20.00%
12.22%
33.85%
7.10
5.98
2.75
3.69
1.60
5.36
0.85
30.87%
49.85%
21.15% 18.46%
8.00%
29.78%
7.08%
2.34
17.06
12.55
7.74
3.47
0.29
11.65
11.13%
41.60%
34.87% 24.97%
12.40%
1.17%
83.20%
2.34
13.47
12.55
7.74
0.21
4.77
6.52
11.13%
32.84%
34.87% 24.97%
0.74%
19.07%
46.56%
16.20
3.82
11.83
3.00
2.57
13.27
4.38
147.27%
12.32%
31.14% 10.71%
9.18% 102.05%
19.89%
16.20
0.26
11.83
3.00
1.24
8.01
0.90
147.27%
0.84%
31.14% 10.71%
4.44%
61.64%
4.09%
159.70
365.73
301.00
228.38
182.64
141.40
344.81
54.32%
43.70%
39.66% 105.25%
27.84%
40.28%
42.05%
159.70
295.04
301.00
228.38
111.64
42.92
439.85
54.32%
35.25%
39.66% 105.25%
17.02%
12.23%
53.64%
245.20
0.27
184.67
625.77
236.07
84.84
76.06
34.93%
0.06%
27.69% 55.62%
90.45%
14.30%
12.21%
245.20
70.04
184.67
625.77
310.63
186.52
185.45
34.93%
14.93%
27.69% 55.62% 119.02%
31.44%
29.77%
193.40
65.18
174.67
10.54
304.86
112.40
25.94
25.96%
10.43%
23.76%
1.87%
34.53%
16.03%
4.23%
193.40
18.79
174.67
10.54
218.14
230.12
143.35
25.96%
3.01%
23.76%
1.87%
24.70%
32.83%
23.38%
Feb-05
6.58
32.91%
4.57
22.85%
0.03
0.25%
1.47
14.71%
33.94
20.70%
63.63
38.80%
27.07
20.98%
50.48
39.13%
6.41
8.22%
19.07
24.45%
164.91
18.00%
327.05
35.70%
10.44
23.20%
5.26
11.69%
44.06
48.95%
37.17
41.30%
7.20
30.00%
4.68
19.50%
22.18
69.30%
30.30
94.70%
18.57
35.70%
13.55
26.06%
6.47
13.21%
0.09
0.19%
13.16
42.46%
10.49
33.83%
71.95
51.03%
61.60
43.69%
29.12
111.99%
37.39
143.79%
23.59
42.12%
35.53
63.44%
16.68
36.26%
12.28
26.70%
65.96
137.41%
83.05
173.02%
3.62
9.52%
1.54
4.05%
18.08
47.59%
15.10
39.73%
7.29
19.71%
2.84
7.67%
36.94
38.48%
28.08
29.25%
24.76
88.45%
32.68
116.71%
8.65
13.95%
19.24
31.04%
58.24
59.42%
52.27
53.34%
23.29
56.81%
32.94
80.34%
5.71
7.82%
4.39
6.01%
29.12
132.38%
36.79
167.23%
15.40
384.89%
18.30
457.62%
17.35
40.36%
13.51
31.41%
19.29
120.54%
24.58
153.62%
20.65
54.34%
18.05
47.49%
15.45
59.43%
13.87
53.34%
1.68
3.58%
5.12
10.88%
0.71
4.15%
1.74
10.22%
1.79
7.45%
5.65
23.56%
12.47
89.08%
16.44
117.44%
351.18
41.96%
278.30
33.25%
137.88
20.64%
58.36
8.74%
350.53
36.70%
259.86
27.21%
Mar-05
4.66
25.89%
7.33
40.71%
0.64
7.14%
1.29
14.28%
114.89
151.17%
76.71
100.94%
2.73
1.75%
29.02
18.60%
31.06
60.89%
14.64
28.71%
89.57
9.06%
126.14
12.75%
6.58
15.68%
13.67
32.54%
19.56
72.43%
10.24
37.94%
4.58
21.80%
7.86
37.44%
17.50
48.61%
6.80
18.89%
20.70
38.34%
27.36
50.67%
15.72
60.47%
7.38
28.38%
8.04
30.94%
11.63
44.75%
33.32
100.97%
20.06
60.78%
23.28
72.74%
12.22
38.19%
48.61
156.81%
32.69
105.45%
7.64
36.36%
1.91
9.09%
54.26
93.67%
31.82
54.93%
8.47
33.89%
1.78
7.11%
1.87
10.37%
2.11
11.71%
14.61
97.41%
8.69
57.93%
12.78
27.19%
0.82
1.75%
4.00
8.00%
6.80
13.60%
25.67
57.04%
11.53
25.63%
14.94
27.17%
22.96
41.74%
0.42
0.63%
13.00
19.49%
40.61
150.41%
27.09
100.33%
17.12
50.34%
6.89
20.27%
12.48
208.08%
8.79
146.46%
69.72
72.63%
74.98
78.10%
8.96
32.63%
1.68
6.10%
4.66
35.88%
1.13
8.70%
11.43
51.94%
13.54
61.55%
5.76
11.29%
14.80
29.03%
11.61
41.47%
14.89
53.17%
0.74
2.97%
4.41
17.62%
12.72
97.86%
7.58
58.29%
22.33
4.90%
73.33
16.08%
259.38
32.71%
366.10
46.17%
423.17
40.96%
545.13
52.77%
Apr-05
3.74
37.42%
3.74
37.42%
3.24
46.30%
3.24
46.30%
109.95
142.79%
109.95
142.79%
7.15
4.39%
7.15
4.39%
14.28
21.61%
14.28
21.61%
246.28
30.18%
246.28
30.18%
4.03
10.33%
4.03
10.33%
4.21
10.27%
4.21
10.27%
0.03
0.18%
0.03
0.18%
33.79
177.86%
33.79
177.86%
9.56
22.76%
9.56
22.76%
4.68
12.66%
4.68
12.66%
1.22
7.19%
1.22
7.19%
46.20
243.15%
46.20
243.15%
18.95
52.63%
18.95
52.63%
12.16
17.88%
12.16
17.88%
14.45
33.61%
14.45
33.61%
12.40
10.17%
12.40
10.17%
0.45
1.31%
0.45
1.31%
1.23
5.87%
1.23
5.87%
19.79
179.90%
19.79
179.90%
2.79
4.43%
2.79
4.43%
35.21
39.56%
35.21
39.56%
66.84
49.51%
66.84
49.51%
6.95
14.78%
6.95
14.78%
4.48
7.21%
4.48
7.21%
42.47
176.97%
42.47
176.97%
7.43
17.38%
7.43
17.38%
7.23
28.90%
7.23
28.90%
26.32
49.65%
26.32
49.65%
16.69
32.10%
16.69
32.10%
9.32
34.51%
9.32
34.51%
3.56
25.44%
3.56
25.44%
27.93
38.79%
27.93
38.79%
11.84
42.29%
11.84
42.29%
9.13
57.03%
9.13
57.03%
6.53
34.35%
6.53
34.35%
90.68
15.45%
90.68
15.45%
528.67
49.55%
528.67
49.55%
969.00
61.37%
969.00
61.37%
May-05
4.06
40.55%
6.16
61.64%
2.77
21.32%
1.24
9.52%
6.20
3.23%
21.67
11.29%
9.50
6.55%
32.68
22.54%
38.25
91.07%
50.29
119.73%
88.31
9.14%
246.55
25.51%
5.47
18.25%
10.80
35.98%
19.45
69.46%
26.57
94.88%
3.62
17.24%
1.01
4.82%
12.75
32.70%
20.52
52.61%
0.42
1.27%
5.43
16.46%
17.05
68.20%
23.36
93.43%
1.04
5.82%
3.87
21.69%
11.66
20.34%
22.01
38.39%
39.50
282.14%
47.53
339.46%
8.05
9.25%
3.79
4.36%
14.58
33.13%
10.17
23.10%
66.52
166.29%
82.49
206.23%
47.22
58.30%
42.16
52.05%
11.68
129.77%
14.78
164.24%
1.90
5.76%
2.77
8.38%
95.00
60.51%
85.70
54.59%
10.50
16.67%
2.63
4.17%
76.15
52.88%
65.97
45.81%
19.95
86.74%
26.39
114.75%
10.70
14.08%
0.91
1.19%
25.80
62.93%
35.82
87.37%
0.75
1.57%
8.07
16.81%
6.09
55.33%
8.65
78.63%
28.50
50.89%
24.38
43.53%
3.66
9.62%
1.49
3.93%
3.30
15.01%
0.50
2.26%
6.78
37.68%
5.10
28.34%
30.78
41.04%
24.15
32.20%
7.80
32.50%
5.37
22.38%
10.07
67.13%
13.83
92.19%
7.06
39.49%
10.81
60.42%
284.65
35.67%
207.65
26.02%
49.19
8.28%
32.53
5.48%
716.75
53.33%
622.66
46.33%
Jun-05
0.68
5.00%
0.68
5.00%
0.65
6.86%
0.65
6.86%
17.57
10.78%
17.57
10.78%
89.42
36.65%
89.42
36.65%
2.14
2.65%
2.14
2.65%
389.82
58.89%
389.82
58.89%
7.78
27.80%
7.78
27.80%
10.48
29.10%
10.48
29.10%
14.45
45.15%
14.45
45.15%
34.00
200.03%
34.00
200.03%
16.40
91.11%
16.40
91.11%
21.29
106.43%
21.29
106.43%
2.05
11.97%
2.05
11.97%
14.54
27.56%
14.54
27.56%
35.48
208.68%
35.48
208.68%
20.33
20.96%
20.33
20.96%
3.98
12.06%
3.98
12.06%
34.80
25.03%
34.80
25.03%
0.64
1.89%
0.64
1.89%
11.55
128.35%
11.55
128.35%
4.33
16.67%
4.33
16.67%
5.29
9.44%
5.29
9.44%
4.62
8.10%
4.62
8.10%
18.76
39.09%
18.76
39.09%
7.52
20.90%
7.52
20.90%
23.63
26.55%
23.63
26.55%
7.28
12.63%
7.28
12.63%
9.05
23.21%
9.05
23.21%
11.44
40.86%
11.44
40.86%
66.24
68.29%
66.24
68.29%
8.98
20.89%
8.98
20.89%
6.43
53.56%
6.43
53.56%
2.27
16.21%
2.27
16.21%
8.54
23.73%
8.54
23.73%
2.76
19.73%
2.76
19.73%
8.07
47.44%
8.07
47.44%
1.62
6.23%
1.62
6.23%
247.38
32.64%
247.38
32.64%
601.37
51.93%
601.37
51.93%
866.43
57.27%
866.43
57.27%
Averages
195
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
6.01
3.62
Holdout
MAPE
27.48%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
5.62
3.88
3.32
41.18%
40.30
76.18
63.00%
54.48
58.90
28.61%
27.99
26.62
53.89%
189.53
221.01
22.13%
15.60
9.27
36.16%
16.59
22.16
58.56%
5.51
7.21
40.72%
26.07
20.33
79.95%
17.22
10.21
34.55%
13.14
10.98
37.42%
5.05
3.79
16.93%
24.27
28.18
69.18%
43.70
24.51
75.30%
24.55
16.32
30.66%
9.23
8.49
24.59%
31.37
37.65
59.46%
7.46
8.76
21.98%
8.78
6.30
41.88%
14.82
13.71
57.70%
17.98
20.57
25.39%
14.21
16.74
40.77%
46.68
29.32
46.37%
19.26
17.40
35.37%
24.18
15.75
21.34%
26.20
19.05
51.30%
19.89
15.76
38.49%
11.53
30.25%
4.09
3.62
42.72%
40.09
70.69
55.74%
55.01
61.74
30.26%
24.62
26.66
51.70%
212.53
222.29
22.62%
13.01
9.90
37.78%
15.52
20.33
53.60%
5.26
7.06
39.83%
23.68
20.42
79.50%
15.52
10.22
33.47%
13.86
10.04
34.62%
5.09
4.34
19.73%
26.42
23.45
57.12%
42.19
25.16
81.34%
22.77
20.27
33.82%
9.49
6.41
17.35%
31.73
37.64
60.77%
7.37
6.78
15.31%
8.59
6.92
48.26%
14.60
13.41
57.02%
15.50
21.51
28.29%
12.75
18.45
45.66%
48.09
27.99
41.48%
19.50
20.23
44.57%
23.44
16.57
22.99%
25.91
18.89
48.72%
19.67
15.89
40.31%
10.16
10.22 117.69%
10.72 129.58%
9.01
24.53
42.93%
14.84
13.27
52.20%
6.76
5.67
32.80%
2.28
5.00
29.18%
15.86
14.64
27.65%
4.84
5.18
25.58%
10.26
7.07
32.61%
9.15
7.96
49.96%
254.29
226.66
40.31%
114.05
252.45
33.20%
224.28
351.07
30.54%
7.62
24.55
42.59%
12.85
12.83
49.58%
5.40
5.81
33.45%
2.83
4.90
28.39%
14.63
14.88
27.03%
4.04
5.33
26.08%
9.39
7.39
34.00%
9.47
7.03
44.74%
264.60
206.32
36.73%
80.57
282.94
39.60%
240.80
35.78
3.96
41.91
42.67%
35.61
354.34
42.18
31.71%
42.16%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Error
Percentage
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Error
Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
1.16
8.25%
1.16
8.25%
2.12
22.58%
2.12
22.58%
13.38
8.16%
13.38
8.16%
48.26
29.77%
48.26
29.77%
41.63
99.11%
41.63
99.11%
342.71
26.69%
342.71
26.69%
3.64
11.95%
3.64
11.95%
16.25
27.54%
16.25
27.54%
6.75
75.00%
6.75
75.00%
10.88
21.75%
10.88
21.75%
8.61
35.88%
8.61
35.88%
9.75
18.06%
9.75
18.06%
3.14
20.45%
3.14
20.45%
16.95
30.94%
16.95
30.94%
0.38
0.87%
0.38
0.87%
3.25
4.33%
3.25
4.33%
0.81
2.83%
0.81
2.83%
30.85
32.82%
30.85
32.82%
0.28
0.84%
0.28
0.84%
7.13
26.39%
7.13
26.39%
8.50
21.79%
8.50
21.79%
14.63
21.20%
14.63
21.20%
28.88
111.06%
28.88
111.06%
22.50
21.84%
22.50
21.84%
17.13
68.50%
17.13
68.50%
24.00
27.91%
24.00
27.91%
11.38
13.23%
11.38
13.23%
4.13
8.59%
4.13
8.59%
6.38
27.72%
6.38
27.72%
8.38
28.88%
8.38
28.88%
6.75
23.08%
6.75
23.08%
1.29
8.08%
1.29
8.08%
1.15
10.84%
1.15
10.84%
37.45
47.41%
37.45
47.41%
7.63
33.15%
7.63
33.15%
0.42
2.01%
0.42
2.01%
14.25
129.55%
14.25
129.55%
229.38
78.02%
229.38
78.02%
247.88
35.31%
247.88
35.31%
144.38
19.38%
144.38
19.38%
Aug-04
1.24
9.51%
0.53
4.06%
7.00
140.00%
8.80
176.00%
100.63
102.68%
130.42
133.08%
44.13
25.07%
24.34
13.83%
21.75
31.52%
35.36
51.25%
476.59
33.28%
333.27
23.27%
12.38
42.67%
18.58
64.07%
15.63
25.61%
8.82
14.46%
12.13
44.91%
9.89
36.64%
2.00
3.45%
6.40
11.03%
13.26
28.22%
8.20
17.45%
6.25
11.57%
0.91
1.69%
1.02
5.12%
1.82
9.11%
5.16
6.97%
5.17
6.99%
30.00
38.96%
22.95
29.81%
22.38
35.52%
35.18
55.84%
4.75
13.97%
0.36
1.07%
21.23
21.02%
39.56
39.17%
5.75
13.69%
0.31
0.74%
8.63
71.88%
11.72
97.66%
45.00
60.00%
40.50
54.00%
5.00
9.62%
13.55
26.06%
16.38
41.99%
24.68
63.29%
9.88
10.51%
2.74
2.92%
14.00
42.42%
21.05
63.79%
16.63
21.31%
7.42
9.51%
5.50
7.05%
5.38
6.89%
63.00
55.26%
55.35
48.55%
1.75
9.72%
0.69
3.82%
5.88
21.76%
2.71
10.02%
4.25
11.18%
0.81
2.14%
1.63
9.03%
4.57
25.38%
4.29
30.61%
2.83
20.20%
6.08
12.66%
0.21
0.45%
3.00
25.00%
5.25
43.75%
18.33
44.70%
14.93
36.41%
6.13
19.76%
2.39
7.72%
284.00
33.93%
201.05
24.02%
7.88
1.68%
79.41
16.93%
4.25
0.68%
98.64
15.78%
Sep-04
1.61
11.51%
1.61
11.51%
2.75
18.33%
2.75
18.33%
130.63
40.69%
130.63
40.69%
128.25
47.68%
128.25
47.68%
24.50
21.49%
24.50
21.49%
162.34
14.15%
162.34
14.15%
13.50
54.00%
13.50
54.00%
26.63
126.79%
26.63
126.79%
12.13
46.63%
12.13
46.63%
30.25
151.25%
30.25
151.25%
5.38
14.14%
5.38
14.14%
18.75
66.96%
18.75
66.96%
2.73
18.21%
2.73
18.21%
25.00
26.32%
25.00
26.32%
10.50
28.38%
10.50
28.38%
25.38
39.65%
25.38
39.65%
1.88
7.21%
1.88
7.21%
19.02
14.75%
19.02
14.75%
4.00
12.90%
4.00
12.90%
8.38
52.34%
8.38
52.34%
6.88
32.74%
6.88
32.74%
17.63
22.89%
17.63
22.89%
11.63
24.73%
11.63
24.73%
7.88
9.26%
7.88
9.26%
2.63
5.36%
2.63
5.36%
13.63
20.04%
13.63
20.04%
13.75
26.44%
13.75
26.44%
3.00
7.50%
3.00
7.50%
0.88
6.73%
0.88
6.73%
25.63
58.24%
25.63
58.24%
8.38
38.07%
8.38
38.07%
10.13
126.56%
10.13
126.56%
3.91
27.93%
3.91
27.93%
27.20
40.00%
27.20
40.00%
1.50
11.54%
1.50
11.54%
15.70
43.62%
15.70
43.62%
13.75
36.18%
13.75
36.18%
192.38
25.35%
192.38
25.35%
180.00
26.99%
180.00
26.99%
65.25
8.88%
65.25
8.88%
Oct-04
4.26
60.90%
4.26
60.90%
3.17
39.66%
3.17
39.66%
17.75
8.92%
17.75
8.92%
40.11
21.00%
40.11
21.00%
46.88
111.61%
46.88
111.61%
5.06
0.48%
5.06
0.48%
23.19
178.35%
23.19
178.35%
28.88
144.38%
28.88
144.38%
5.35
28.75%
5.35
28.75%
25.38
93.98%
25.38
93.98%
6.13
21.88%
6.13
21.88%
15.63
47.35%
15.63
47.35%
0.85
4.46%
0.85
4.46%
7.14
11.33%
7.14
11.33%
3.63
6.59%
3.63
6.59%
22.25
32.72%
22.25
32.72%
0.31
1.05%
0.31
1.05%
4.70
4.41%
4.70
4.41%
4.11
10.28%
4.11
10.28%
6.24
34.15%
6.24
34.15%
6.38
33.55%
6.38
33.55%
15.75
21.88%
15.75
21.88%
25.38
87.50%
25.38
87.50%
18.38
31.14%
18.38
31.14%
47.75
53.65%
47.75
53.65%
8.63
16.59%
8.63
16.59%
29.00
72.50%
29.00
72.50%
0.53
1.18%
0.53
1.18%
1.25
7.35%
1.25
7.35%
14.25
41.91%
14.25
41.91%
15.03
88.42%
15.03
88.42%
3.37
22.47%
3.37
22.47%
5.46
34.11%
5.46
34.11%
0.92
2.15%
0.92
2.15%
4.13
20.63%
4.13
20.63%
10.75
34.68%
10.75
34.68%
6.13
21.88%
6.13
21.88%
335.88
154.78%
335.88
154.78%
600.25
53.36%
600.25
53.36%
148.38
26.31%
148.38
26.31%
Nov-04
6.99
36.77%
5.18
27.29%
2.30
28.72%
3.84
48.03%
194.50
53.14%
168.78
46.11%
136.11
46.14%
112.27
38.06%
13.25
17.21%
26.79
34.79%
343.04
23.56%
176.10
12.09%
8.44
18.35%
2.81
6.10%
45.00
47.37%
37.50
39.47%
6.00
66.67%
8.25
91.67%
2.50
4.81%
4.93
9.47%
9.63
35.65%
15.12
56.00%
8.38
19.48%
16.08
37.40%
2.60
12.37%
0.16
0.77%
34.49
32.54%
23.76
22.42%
78.25
57.12%
69.44
50.68%
14.50
19.59%
27.78
37.53%
19.44
38.13%
14.71
28.85%
33.23
49.59%
48.26
72.03%
6.61
15.38%
1.15
2.69%
7.13
44.53%
10.59
66.21%
16.75
128.85%
21.21
163.17%
21.25
59.03%
29.84
82.88%
11.88
17.72%
3.61
5.38%
9.88
17.95%
19.61
35.65%
14.25
59.38%
19.99
83.28%
10.50
14.58%
1.28
1.77%
3.75
6.05%
13.61
21.96%
22.50
75.00%
30.38
101.25%
40.13
70.39%
37.59
65.95%
20.75
50.61%
17.71
43.20%
21.72
40.22%
16.88
31.25%
0.38
2.00%
2.41
12.70%
1.04
10.42%
2.70
26.98%
3.12
7.42%
9.88
23.53%
4.13
20.63%
1.74
8.72%
3.88
13.84%
0.26
0.92%
6.38
22.77%
3.13
11.18%
78.13
11.91%
8.56
1.30%
272.00
104.21%
351.95
134.85%
205.88
23.32%
104.31
11.81%
Dec-04
1.01
8.44%
1.59
13.25%
6.17
154.32%
4.14
103.45%
126.50
178.17%
87.00
122.54%
20.69
10.14%
57.34
28.12%
53.50
127.38%
34.40
81.90%
88.68
8.54%
136.80
13.17%
11.94
23.88%
19.55
39.10%
7.63
13.38%
17.50
30.70%
6.75
67.50%
3.40
34.00%
3.13
7.44%
5.90
14.05%
8.75
28.23%
0.80
2.58%
18.75
66.96%
9.40
33.57%
3.22
16.12%
6.58
32.89%
48.14
240.68%
34.51
172.55%
2.38
4.09%
9.70
16.72%
9.63
12.03%
8.30
10.38%
11.81
69.44%
6.04
35.56%
17.29
21.07%
2.58
3.14%
17.01
94.51%
10.01
55.61%
3.75
19.74%
0.80
4.21%
2.38
8.48%
3.70
13.21%
10.38
14.41%
22.70
31.53%
20.13
26.83%
31.10
41.47%
3.88
5.46%
17.30
24.37%
3.50
7.78%
11.80
26.22%
50.13
43.59%
63.10
54.87%
7.00
9.59%
20.20
27.67%
2.25
4.41%
8.40
16.47%
14.75
491.67%
11.20
373.33%
13.35
36.11%
18.08
48.89%
23.84
42.58%
30.28
54.06%
4.76
20.67%
8.40
36.54%
0.67
6.06%
1.67
15.15%
5.48
12.45%
4.42
10.04%
2.00
11.11%
5.20
28.89%
1.88
7.50%
3.50
14.00%
10.63
81.73%
5.90
45.38%
278.50
79.34%
152.60
43.48%
15.49
2.61%
131.04
22.09%
12.25
1.75%
130.40
18.60%
Jan-05
8.86
42.20%
11.29
53.76%
11.33
53.94%
13.26
63.15%
84.50
72.84%
44.40
38.28%
91.27
87.76%
52.21
50.21%
34.88
69.75%
17.90
35.80%
387.78
50.43%
156.42
20.34%
6.94
25.69%
0.15
0.55%
27.38
130.36%
17.70
84.29%
10.68
38.13%
14.14
50.50%
2.97
7.40%
10.39
25.92%
22.50
132.35%
14.60
85.88%
0.50
1.22%
7.80
19.02%
6.85
29.78%
10.08
43.82%
16.26
36.14%
4.01
8.91%
8.25
16.84%
3.20
6.53%
10.00
11.11%
26.00
28.89%
0.05
0.17%
5.43
20.14%
35.43
56.23%
15.74
24.99%
1.14
3.25%
6.09
17.40%
2.91
16.16%
1.27
7.08%
22.00
42.31%
28.00
53.85%
1.75
2.57%
15.00
22.06%
4.88
9.75%
13.90
27.80%
46.75
203.26%
32.80
142.61%
6.00
15.00%
3.20
8.00%
8.88
15.57%
4.30
7.54%
19.00
41.30%
6.00
13.04%
19.26
58.37%
8.81
26.70%
13.13
262.50%
9.50
190.00%
7.88
23.16%
13.10
38.53%
14.28
95.21%
8.42
56.17%
0.76
4.19%
4.20
23.36%
4.70
58.78%
2.16
27.02%
28.38
123.37%
18.10
78.70%
5.25
43.75%
1.80
15.00%
14.00
100.00%
8.40
60.00%
1.00
4.55%
3.60
16.36%
247.00
30.12%
361.60
44.10%
30.50
4.90%
100.20
16.08%
84.75
13.83%
54.80
8.94%
Feb-05
6.96
34.78%
5.00
25.00%
0.45
4.52%
0.98
9.80%
60.13
36.66%
93.74
57.16%
88.39
68.52%
121.00
93.80%
6.38
8.17%
19.03
24.40%
335.15
36.59%
522.83
57.08%
9.19
20.42%
3.82
8.48%
34.13
37.92%
25.74
28.60%
7.05
29.38%
4.51
18.78%
6.25
19.53%
11.99
37.46%
12.00
23.08%
6.00
11.54%
7.13
14.54%
0.84
1.72%
13.72
44.27%
11.13
35.91%
71.86
50.97%
61.49
43.61%
38.25
147.12%
47.89
184.18%
24.75
44.20%
36.86
65.83%
15.57
33.85%
11.00
23.92%
46.68
97.25%
60.88
126.83%
0.39
1.02%
6.15
16.17%
16.22
42.68%
12.95
34.08%
8.00
21.62%
3.65
9.86%
30.88
32.16%
21.11
21.99%
20.38
72.77%
27.63
98.68%
11.50
18.55%
22.53
36.33%
53.50
54.59%
46.83
47.78%
29.13
71.04%
39.64
96.69%
7.63
10.45%
2.18
2.99%
29.01
131.87%
36.66
166.65%
20.50
512.50%
24.18
604.38%
13.25
30.81%
8.79
20.44%
16.16
100.98%
20.98
131.12%
20.13
52.97%
17.45
45.92%
13.67
52.59%
11.82
45.48%
6.75
14.36%
14.81
31.52%
1.13
6.62%
3.84
22.61%
3.00
12.50%
7.05
29.38%
11.13
79.46%
14.89
106.38%
273.13
32.63%
188.54
22.53%
28.88
4.32%
66.99
10.03%
223.88
23.44%
114.21
11.96%
Mar-05
3.96
21.98%
6.77
37.59%
0.20
2.25%
1.96
21.80%
134.00
176.32%
92.00
121.05%
66.26
42.48%
21.81
13.98%
22.88
44.85%
8.10
15.88%
235.49
23.81%
9.41
0.95%
2.94
7.00%
10.75
25.60%
26.00
96.30%
15.40
57.04%
5.18
24.64%
8.34
39.72%
4.63
12.85%
3.50
9.72%
19.75
36.57%
26.60
49.26%
15.50
59.62%
7.20
27.69%
8.10
31.15%
11.68
44.92%
33.89
102.69%
20.51
62.15%
28.63
89.45%
16.50
51.56%
45.25
145.97%
30.00
96.77%
8.68
41.34%
2.74
13.07%
34.01
58.72%
15.62
26.97%
10.51
42.05%
3.41
13.64%
4.03
22.41%
0.37
2.08%
13.63
90.83%
7.90
52.67%
19.25
40.96%
6.00
12.77%
0.38
0.75%
9.70
19.40%
28.75
63.89%
14.00
31.11%
10.25
18.64%
19.20
34.91%
9.31
13.96%
5.89
8.83%
38.50
142.59%
25.40
94.07%
17.26
50.77%
7.01
20.62%
13.88
231.25%
9.90
165.00%
64.25
66.93%
70.60
73.54%
6.06
22.05%
0.65
2.36%
4.37
33.62%
0.90
6.89%
9.67
43.97%
12.14
55.17%
1.88
3.68%
8.70
17.06%
11.00
39.29%
14.40
51.43%
3.75
15.00%
2.00
8.00%
10.88
83.65%
6.10
46.92%
53.13
11.65%
48.70
10.68%
163.34
20.60%
289.28
36.48%
350.38
33.92%
486.90
47.13%
Apr-05
5.38
53.75%
5.38
53.75%
2.80
39.97%
2.80
39.97%
105.88
137.50%
105.88
137.50%
43.39
26.62%
43.39
26.62%
1.71
2.59%
1.71
2.59%
365.49
44.79%
365.49
44.79%
6.44
16.51%
6.44
16.51%
9.25
22.56%
9.25
22.56%
1.07
6.32%
1.07
6.32%
21.76
114.53%
21.76
114.53%
13.00
30.95%
13.00
30.95%
3.63
9.80%
3.63
9.80%
1.68
9.86%
1.68
9.86%
45.63
240.16%
45.63
240.16%
23.75
65.97%
23.75
65.97%
6.00
8.82%
6.00
8.82%
13.57
31.56%
13.57
31.56%
33.19
27.20%
33.19
27.20%
0.36
1.07%
0.36
1.07%
0.53
2.54%
0.53
2.54%
23.25
211.36%
23.25
211.36%
0.88
1.39%
0.88
1.39%
39.38
44.24%
39.38
44.24%
67.25
49.81%
67.25
49.81%
5.38
11.44%
5.38
11.44%
13.15
21.18%
13.15
21.18%
39.25
163.54%
39.25
163.54%
7.53
17.62%
7.53
17.62%
6.88
27.50%
6.88
27.50%
20.50
38.68%
20.50
38.68%
19.34
37.20%
19.34
37.20%
11.26
41.69%
11.26
41.69%
1.80
12.84%
1.80
12.84%
23.88
33.16%
23.88
33.16%
11.13
39.73%
11.13
39.73%
10.75
67.19%
10.75
67.19%
4.25
22.37%
4.25
22.37%
56.25
9.58%
56.25
9.58%
432.97
40.58%
432.97
40.58%
900.00
57.00%
900.00
57.00%
May-05
5.00
50.00%
7.25
72.50%
2.95
22.71%
1.45
11.12%
4.63
2.41%
23.48
12.23%
46.26
31.90%
74.95
51.69%
22.25
52.98%
31.89
75.92%
170.84
17.67%
341.46
35.32%
3.19
10.62%
8.16
27.21%
25.00
89.29%
32.95
117.68%
2.05
9.76%
0.79
3.77%
1.14
2.91%
7.16
18.35%
0.00
0.00%
4.95
15.00%
16.25
65.00%
22.44
89.75%
2.72
15.27%
5.80
32.56%
17.52
30.55%
28.74
50.13%
46.25
330.36%
55.29
394.91%
15.75
18.10%
5.06
5.82%
11.70
26.58%
6.85
15.57%
46.31
115.78%
59.26
148.15%
45.99
56.78%
40.74
50.29%
11.53
128.14%
14.61
162.37%
2.50
7.58%
7.83
23.71%
89.25
56.85%
79.09
50.37%
17.88
28.37%
11.11
17.63%
75.00
52.08%
64.65
44.90%
27.38
119.02%
34.93
151.88%
4.88
6.41%
5.79
7.62%
22.75
55.49%
32.31
78.81%
0.11
0.24%
7.07
14.73%
6.50
59.09%
9.13
82.95%
19.88
35.50%
14.46
25.82%
7.09
18.67%
2.46
6.47%
2.63
11.95%
0.28
1.25%
4.30
23.88%
2.24
12.46%
25.75
34.33%
18.36
24.48%
7.13
29.69%
4.59
19.14%
12.50
83.33%
16.63
110.83%
5.24
29.29%
8.71
48.68%
201.63
25.27%
112.17
14.06%
44.53
7.50%
140.31
23.62%
616.38
45.86%
507.23
37.74%
Jun-05
1.94
14.27%
1.94
14.27%
0.48
5.07%
0.48
5.07%
13.38
8.21%
13.38
8.21%
53.51
21.93%
53.51
21.93%
15.63
19.29%
15.63
19.29%
438.62
66.26%
438.62
66.26%
6.63
23.66%
6.63
23.66%
13.00
36.11%
13.00
36.11%
11.55
36.10%
11.55
36.10%
21.39
125.80%
21.39
125.80%
18.75
104.17%
18.75
104.17%
17.75
88.75%
17.75
88.75%
4.73
27.56%
4.73
27.56%
19.38
36.76%
19.38
36.76%
41.88
246.32%
41.88
246.32%
31.25
32.22%
31.25
32.22%
1.63
4.93%
1.63
4.93%
57.20
41.15%
57.20
41.15%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
10.41
115.64%
10.41
115.64%
6.50
25.00%
6.50
25.00%
9.00
16.07%
9.00
16.07%
8.88
15.57%
8.88
15.57%
13.75
28.65%
13.75
28.65%
18.13
50.35%
18.13
50.35%
20.29
22.80%
20.29
22.80%
1.25
2.17%
1.25
2.17%
7.14
18.30%
7.14
18.30%
12.63
45.09%
12.63
45.09%
52.50
54.13%
52.50
54.13%
12.32
28.64%
12.32
28.64%
7.00
58.33%
7.00
58.33%
1.13
8.04%
1.13
8.04%
9.75
27.08%
9.75
27.08%
3.50
25.00%
3.50
25.00%
11.00
64.71%
11.00
64.71%
2.63
10.10%
2.63
10.10%
141.38
18.65%
141.38
18.65%
508.09
43.88%
508.09
43.88%
749.38
49.53%
749.38
49.53%
Averages
196
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
6.06
4.03
Holdout
MAPE
29.36%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
5.67
3.91
3.48
44.34%
40.45
82.16
68.81%
54.16
67.22
38.25%
27.92
25.43
50.50%
192.65
279.31
28.85%
15.57
9.03
36.09%
16.66
22.90
66.47%
5.63
7.22
39.48%
26.11
11.02
47.14%
17.20
11.48
40.93%
13.13
11.52
39.11%
5.02
4.28
19.55%
24.50
28.45
70.50%
43.20
26.01
86.01%
24.69
19.20
33.69%
9.37
7.51
22.59%
31.36
31.59
45.00%
7.42
8.01
20.98%
8.74
7.24
48.05%
14.87
13.48
57.01%
18.05
19.64
24.92%
14.21
17.17
40.11%
47.18
26.28
42.70%
19.51
18.32
42.18%
24.03
17.43
24.58%
26.60
16.56
45.87%
20.17
14.64
35.76%
11.55
31.84%
4.12
3.81
46.58%
40.24
76.73
61.16%
54.69
64.79
36.39%
24.55
25.32
47.84%
215.64
249.21
26.22%
12.98
9.77
37.97%
15.59
20.80
60.80%
5.37
7.18
38.99%
23.72
13.33
52.78%
15.51
10.68
37.06%
13.85
10.85
36.81%
5.06
5.03
23.38%
26.64
24.36
59.35%
41.69
25.42
90.21%
22.90
21.44
34.90%
9.63
5.44
15.48%
31.71
32.24
46.80%
7.33
6.38
15.14%
8.55
7.08
50.39%
14.64
13.69
57.91%
15.57
20.43
27.59%
12.75
19.65
46.40%
48.60
25.28
38.22%
19.74
20.67
50.43%
23.29
17.26
24.61%
26.31
16.64
43.61%
19.95
14.67
37.35%
10.18
10.85 133.32%
11.55 145.96%
9.06
22.21
40.56%
14.93
12.93
45.52%
6.83
5.64
32.63%
2.24
4.32
26.67%
16.01
14.72
29.84%
4.87
5.13
25.51%
10.16
8.83
40.76%
8.97
7.70
45.11%
256.57
197.56
42.60%
114.19
210.98
28.83%
222.90
292.09
25.32%
7.67
22.23
12.93
11.86
41.58%
5.48
5.94
34.10%
2.79
4.08
24.69%
14.78
14.47
27.96%
40.11
42.95%
40.19%
4.07
5.39
26.63%
9.28
8.45
39.31%
9.29
7.14
41.89%
266.88
169.04
37.21%
80.71
260.70
38.35%
239.42
35.92
4.33
35.74
291.99
39.62
26.09%
42.19%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
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Jul-04
5.47
39.09%
5.47
39.09%
1.32
14.05%
1.32
14.05%
9.00
5.49%
9.00
5.49%
34.34
21.18%
34.34
21.18%
65.30
155.48%
65.30
155.48%
305.33
23.78%
305.33
23.78%
0.28
0.93%
0.28
0.93%
8.30
14.07%
8.30
14.07%
6.20
68.89%
6.20
68.89%
4.20
8.40%
4.20
8.40%
21.00
87.50%
21.00
87.50%
8.10
15.00%
8.10
15.00%
1.84
11.98%
1.84
11.98%
9.13
16.68%
9.13
16.68%
34.50
80.23%
34.50
80.23%
26.30
35.07%
26.30
35.07%
1.26
4.41%
1.26
4.41%
13.08
13.92%
13.08
13.92%
1.20
3.64%
1.20
3.64%
9.00
33.33%
9.00
33.33%
14.30
36.67%
14.30
36.67%
19.10
27.68%
19.10
27.68%
36.20
139.23%
36.20
139.23%
53.60
52.04%
53.60
52.04%
15.90
63.60%
15.90
63.60%
34.50
40.12%
34.50
40.12%
24.90
28.95%
24.90
28.95%
2.40
5.00%
2.40
5.00%
1.80
7.83%
1.80
7.83%
12.50
43.10%
12.50
43.10%
8.35
28.55%
8.35
28.55%
4.74
29.70%
4.74
29.70%
0.13
1.20%
0.13
1.20%
42.83
54.21%
42.83
54.21%
5.10
22.17%
5.10
22.17%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
10.30
93.64%
10.30
93.64%
408.70
139.01%
408.70
139.01%
186.90
26.62%
186.90
26.62%
57.60
7.73%
57.60
7.73%
Aug-04
3.91
30.08%
2.55
19.59%
6.20
124.00%
7.88
157.60%
143.30
146.22%
179.50
183.16%
1.00
0.57%
25.25
14.35%
48.10
69.71%
65.67
95.17%
388.80
27.15%
232.32
16.22%
20.60
71.03%
28.04
96.69%
10.00
16.39%
2.35
3.85%
13.50
50.00%
11.48
42.50%
17.80
30.69%
11.77
20.29%
7.30
15.53%
15.45
32.86%
10.00
18.52%
3.40
6.30%
3.98
19.90%
1.58
7.88%
16.98
22.94%
8.43
11.39%
4.30
5.58%
6.60
8.58%
43.10
68.41%
59.02
93.67%
6.50
19.12%
2.38
6.99%
3.80
3.76%
10.78
10.67%
1.60
3.81%
4.46
10.62%
7.00
58.33%
9.85
82.08%
56.50
75.33%
53.73
71.63%
14.20
27.31%
24.13
46.40%
20.00
51.28%
28.85
73.97%
36.10
38.40%
27.42
29.16%
18.40
55.76%
26.11
79.12%
20.40
26.15%
11.76
15.08%
14.20
18.21%
4.63
5.94%
69.60
61.05%
62.94
55.21%
4.20
23.33%
7.53
41.83%
5.70
21.11%
2.51
9.28%
5.50
14.47%
0.63
1.64%
7.60
42.22%
11.44
63.56%
3.73
26.63%
2.19
15.62%
0.92
1.91%
6.14
12.80%
4.90
40.83%
7.44
61.96%
16.30
39.76%
12.60
30.72%
7.80
25.16%
4.32
13.94%
128.80
15.39%
22.57
2.70%
94.00
20.04%
178.45
38.05%
150.50
24.08%
266.83
42.69%
Sep-04
0.28
2.00%
0.28
2.00%
5.00
33.33%
5.00
33.33%
115.40
35.95%
115.40
35.95%
54.90
20.41%
54.90
20.41%
11.30
9.91%
11.30
9.91%
14.60
1.27%
14.60
1.27%
22.60
90.40%
22.60
90.40%
38.60
183.81%
38.60
183.81%
11.20
43.08%
11.20
43.08%
15.40
77.00%
15.40
77.00%
5.40
14.21%
5.40
14.21%
14.20
50.71%
14.20
50.71%
0.66
4.41%
0.66
4.41%
40.47
42.61%
40.47
42.61%
14.10
38.11%
14.10
38.11%
29.60
46.25%
29.60
46.25%
1.20
4.62%
1.20
4.62%
44.90
34.81%
44.90
34.81%
5.50
17.74%
5.50
17.74%
13.30
83.13%
13.30
83.13%
0.20
0.95%
0.20
0.95%
7.80
10.13%
7.80
10.13%
11.30
24.04%
11.30
24.04%
26.60
31.29%
26.60
31.29%
6.10
12.45%
6.10
12.45%
2.10
3.09%
2.10
3.09%
15.10
29.04%
15.10
29.04%
2.50
6.25%
2.50
6.25%
4.90
37.69%
4.90
37.69%
24.60
55.91%
24.60
55.91%
8.70
39.55%
8.70
39.55%
11.70
146.25%
11.70
146.25%
2.20
15.71%
2.20
15.71%
22.00
32.35%
22.00
32.35%
4.40
33.85%
4.40
33.85%
14.00
38.89%
14.00
38.89%
18.20
47.89%
18.20
47.89%
209.40
27.59%
209.40
27.59%
66.40
9.96%
66.40
9.96%
36.60
4.98%
36.60
4.98%
Oct-04
7.97
113.84%
7.97
113.84%
1.75
21.91%
1.75
21.91%
10.00
5.03%
10.00
5.03%
11.55
6.05%
11.55
6.05%
36.30
86.43%
36.30
86.43%
184.57
17.46%
184.57
17.46%
29.39
226.10%
29.39
226.10%
40.60
203.00%
40.60
203.00%
6.00
32.25%
6.00
32.25%
14.20
52.59%
14.20
52.59%
7.10
25.36%
7.10
25.36%
14.50
43.94%
14.50
43.94%
3.18
16.74%
3.18
16.74%
6.90
10.95%
6.90
10.95%
11.30
20.55%
11.30
20.55%
18.60
27.35%
18.60
27.35%
2.62
9.04%
2.62
9.04%
20.42
19.19%
20.42
19.19%
4.56
11.40%
4.56
11.40%
12.44
68.09%
12.44
68.09%
9.20
48.42%
9.20
48.42%
1.20
1.67%
1.20
1.67%
17.70
61.03%
17.70
61.03%
18.90
32.03%
18.90
32.03%
53.30
59.89%
53.30
59.89%
24.00
46.15%
24.00
46.15%
35.10
87.75%
35.10
87.75%
0.49
1.10%
0.49
1.10%
2.70
15.88%
2.70
15.88%
10.50
30.88%
10.50
30.88%
12.60
74.12%
12.60
74.12%
2.98
19.89%
2.98
19.89%
4.65
29.08%
4.65
29.08%
17.30
40.23%
17.30
40.23%
0.40
2.00%
0.40
2.00%
10.10
32.58%
10.10
32.58%
11.40
40.71%
11.40
40.71%
202.50
93.32%
202.50
93.32%
470.10
41.79%
470.10
41.79%
141.10
25.02%
141.10
25.02%
Nov-04
3.97
20.87%
1.71
9.00%
0.29
3.57%
0.87
10.90%
218.70
59.75%
196.61
53.72%
102.86
34.87%
74.04
25.10%
8.40
10.91%
1.89
2.45%
133.10
9.14%
65.33
4.49%
9.35
20.34%
3.86
8.39%
35.00
36.84%
26.00
27.37%
8.90
98.89%
11.59
128.72%
2.50
4.81%
4.93
9.47%
8.90
32.96%
14.29
52.91%
8.40
19.53%
16.11
37.47%
3.50
16.67%
0.88
4.17%
41.81
39.44%
32.18
30.36%
83.30
60.80%
75.25
54.92%
0.10
0.14%
11.22
15.16%
21.37
41.90%
16.92
33.18%
24.00
35.82%
37.65
56.19%
5.87
13.65%
0.30
0.70%
8.30
51.88%
11.95
74.66%
34.80
267.69%
41.97
322.85%
27.20
75.56%
36.68
101.89%
25.20
37.61%
18.93
28.25%
31.00
56.36%
43.90
79.82%
8.80
36.67%
13.72
57.17%
6.10
8.47%
17.82
24.74%
15.20
24.52%
26.78
43.19%
42.30
141.00%
53.15
177.15%
39.20
68.77%
36.53
64.09%
15.90
38.78%
12.14
29.60%
21.83
40.42%
17.00
31.48%
2.11
11.12%
0.42
2.22%
2.48
24.85%
4.36
43.58%
14.60
34.76%
23.09
54.98%
3.60
18.00%
1.14
5.70%
1.30
4.64%
5.70
20.34%
6.60
23.57%
3.39
12.11%
105.90
16.14%
23.39
3.56%
322.40
123.52%
409.91
157.05%
232.10
26.29%
134.47
15.23%
Dec-04
2.60
21.67%
0.32
2.67%
6.18
154.41%
4.14
103.53%
132.40
186.48%
91.72
129.18%
13.87
6.80%
29.70
14.56%
40.60
96.67%
24.08
57.33%
233.30
22.46%
21.10
2.03%
21.20
42.41%
26.96
53.93%
11.70
20.53%
20.76
36.42%
12.00
120.00%
7.60
76.00%
2.90
6.90%
10.72
25.52%
5.10
16.45%
2.12
6.84%
14.60
52.14%
6.08
21.71%
3.32
16.61%
6.66
33.29%
57.08
285.40%
41.66
208.32%
9.30
16.03%
19.04
32.83%
12.70
15.88%
26.16
32.70%
11.59
68.17%
5.87
34.54%
25.42
30.97%
3.92
4.78%
16.32
90.66%
9.46
52.53%
1.00
5.26%
3.00
15.79%
13.40
47.86%
5.12
18.29%
5.30
7.36%
18.64
25.89%
32.90
43.87%
41.32
55.09%
17.00
23.94%
0.60
0.85%
7.70
17.11%
15.16
33.69%
39.80
34.61%
54.84
47.69%
4.70
6.44%
18.36
25.15%
12.90
25.29%
0.12
0.24%
13.10
436.67%
9.88
329.33%
4.08
11.02%
10.66
28.82%
26.95
48.13%
32.76
58.50%
10.31
44.82%
12.85
55.85%
2.32
21.12%
0.34
3.10%
17.20
39.09%
4.96
11.27%
2.90
16.11%
5.92
32.89%
7.70
30.80%
1.16
4.64%
15.20
116.92%
9.56
73.54%
293.70
83.68%
164.76
46.94%
17.86
3.01%
104.36
17.59%
13.90
1.98%
151.32
21.59%
Jan-05
10.00
47.62%
12.20
58.10%
11.36
54.10%
13.29
63.28%
95.90
82.67%
53.52
46.14%
104.51
100.49%
62.81
60.40%
19.00
38.00%
5.20
10.40%
412.79
53.68%
176.43
22.94%
5.45
20.19%
9.76
36.15%
11.40
54.29%
4.92
23.43%
6.46
23.08%
10.77
38.46%
6.69
16.69%
13.37
33.35%
17.40
102.35%
10.52
61.88%
3.20
7.80%
10.76
26.24%
5.36
23.32%
8.89
38.66%
28.98
64.39%
14.18
31.51%
3.80
7.76%
6.76
13.80%
23.50
26.11%
36.80
40.89%
2.07
7.67%
3.74
13.87%
47.87
75.98%
25.70
40.79%
2.01
5.74%
5.39
15.41%
0.79
4.41%
4.24
23.53%
19.20
36.92%
25.76
49.54%
1.20
1.76%
12.64
18.59%
13.90
27.80%
21.12
42.24%
55.20
240.00%
39.56
172.00%
19.40
48.50%
7.52
18.80%
8.40
14.74%
4.68
8.21%
9.80
21.30%
1.36
2.96%
24.64
74.66%
13.11
39.73%
11.60
232.00%
8.28
165.60%
1.10
3.24%
5.92
17.41%
8.92
59.50%
4.14
27.60%
4.40
24.47%
7.12
39.57%
6.46
80.77%
3.57
44.62%
32.10
139.57%
21.08
91.65%
4.60
38.33%
1.28
10.67%
19.50
139.29%
12.80
91.43%
7.90
35.91%
1.92
8.73%
308.70
37.65%
410.96
50.12%
191.10
30.67%
28.28
4.54%
32.60
5.32%
96.52
15.75%
Feb-05
6.20
31.00%
4.13
20.65%
0.90
9.00%
0.46
4.65%
116.10
70.79%
158.12
96.41%
117.70
91.24%
154.71
119.93%
4.90
6.28%
6.07
7.78%
356.17
38.88%
546.99
59.72%
14.80
32.89%
10.27
22.82%
35.70
39.67%
27.56
30.62%
6.92
28.84%
4.36
18.16%
6.70
20.94%
12.51
39.08%
20.50
39.42%
15.78
30.34%
10.90
22.24%
5.19
10.58%
11.90
38.39%
9.04
29.15%
53.30
37.80%
40.15
28.47%
60.40
232.31%
73.36
282.15%
13.10
23.39%
23.47
41.90%
8.30
18.04%
2.65
5.75%
46.63
97.14%
60.82
126.71%
1.60
4.21%
7.54
19.84%
21.72
57.16%
19.28
50.73%
14.40
38.92%
11.01
29.76%
39.40
41.04%
30.91
32.20%
20.80
74.29%
28.12
100.43%
4.10
6.61%
14.02
22.60%
48.60
49.59%
41.19
42.03%
24.80
60.49%
34.67
84.56%
18.00
24.66%
9.75
13.36%
22.93
104.22%
29.67
134.85%
28.30
707.50%
33.15
828.63%
4.90
11.40%
0.82
1.90%
18.90
118.13%
24.14
150.84%
22.50
59.21%
20.18
53.09%
13.00
50.00%
11.05
42.50%
1.10
2.34%
8.32
17.69%
0.80
4.71%
3.47
20.41%
7.80
32.50%
12.57
52.38%
16.30
116.43%
20.85
148.89%
274.00
32.74%
189.55
22.65%
45.80
6.86%
47.53
7.12%
223.10
23.36%
113.32
11.87%
Mar-05
4.70
26.11%
7.36
40.89%
1.90
21.11%
3.32
36.89%
134.10
176.45%
92.08
121.16%
79.18
50.76%
32.15
20.61%
8.70
17.06%
3.24
6.35%
189.43
19.15%
46.26
4.68%
3.10
7.38%
10.88
25.90%
30.40
112.59%
18.92
70.07%
7.98
38.00%
10.58
50.40%
3.80
10.56%
4.16
11.56%
24.10
44.63%
30.08
55.70%
7.50
28.85%
0.80
3.08%
6.40
24.62%
10.32
39.69%
28.90
87.58%
16.52
50.06%
47.00
146.88%
31.20
97.50%
43.20
139.35%
28.36
91.48%
9.50
45.24%
3.40
16.19%
29.19
50.39%
11.77
20.31%
6.20
24.80%
0.04
0.16%
0.35
1.93%
3.88
21.54%
6.00
40.00%
1.80
12.00%
14.70
31.28%
2.36
5.02%
10.60
21.20%
1.52
3.04%
20.20
44.89%
7.16
15.91%
7.10
12.91%
16.68
30.33%
18.11
27.16%
1.15
1.73%
34.00
125.93%
21.80
80.74%
8.42
24.76%
0.06
0.19%
17.00
283.33%
12.40
206.67%
57.71
60.11%
65.37
68.09%
16.73
60.89%
7.89
28.71%
5.70
43.85%
1.96
15.08%
10.00
45.45%
12.40
56.36%
5.40
10.59%
14.52
28.47%
9.50
33.93%
13.20
47.14%
3.20
12.80%
2.44
9.76%
10.00
76.92%
5.40
41.54%
0.50
0.11%
90.80
19.91%
185.70
23.42%
307.16
38.73%
301.40
29.18%
447.72
43.34%
Apr-05
6.50
65.00%
6.50
65.00%
5.00
71.43%
5.00
71.43%
83.80
108.83%
83.80
108.83%
17.89
10.97%
17.89
10.97%
13.88
21.01%
13.88
21.01%
200.13
24.53%
200.13
24.53%
2.70
6.92%
2.70
6.92%
5.50
13.41%
5.50
13.41%
0.86
5.06%
0.86
5.06%
22.74
119.66%
22.74
119.66%
17.70
42.14%
17.70
42.14%
0.30
0.81%
0.30
0.81%
4.30
25.29%
4.30
25.29%
32.50
171.05%
32.50
171.05%
33.90
94.17%
33.90
94.17%
13.60
20.00%
13.60
20.00%
14.01
32.58%
14.01
32.58%
48.13
39.45%
48.13
39.45%
2.00
5.88%
2.00
5.88%
3.07
14.64%
3.07
14.64%
22.70
206.36%
22.70
206.36%
0.20
0.32%
0.20
0.32%
30.20
33.93%
30.20
33.93%
87.60
64.89%
87.60
64.89%
3.80
8.09%
3.80
8.09%
14.80
23.83%
14.80
23.83%
32.70
136.25%
32.70
136.25%
3.72
8.72%
3.72
8.72%
9.00
36.00%
9.00
36.00%
16.71
31.52%
16.71
31.52%
16.70
32.12%
16.70
32.12%
7.60
28.15%
7.60
28.15%
3.90
27.86%
3.90
27.86%
36.90
51.25%
36.90
51.25%
11.80
42.14%
11.80
42.14%
5.80
36.25%
5.80
36.25%
2.10
11.05%
2.10
11.05%
0.80
0.14%
0.80
0.14%
475.13
44.53%
475.13
44.53%
890.50
56.40%
890.50
56.40%
May-05
8.60
86.00%
11.39
113.90%
1.10
8.46%
0.69
5.27%
40.80
21.25%
18.12
9.44%
8.09
5.58%
31.06
21.42%
20.30
48.33%
29.65
70.58%
16.21
1.68%
126.35
13.07%
10.70
35.67%
16.81
56.02%
35.20
125.71%
44.68
159.57%
0.10
0.48%
3.04
14.45%
0.57
1.47%
5.19
13.31%
1.80
5.45%
7.02
21.27%
16.80
67.20%
23.07
92.28%
7.58
42.51%
11.39
63.89%
27.17
47.39%
39.84
69.50%
36.40
260.00%
43.96
314.00%
14.20
16.32%
3.28
3.77%
9.01
20.47%
3.76
8.54%
21.22
53.04%
30.40
76.00%
47.40
58.52%
42.36
52.30%
17.00
188.89%
20.90
232.22%
4.30
13.03%
9.90
29.98%
80.20
51.08%
68.68
43.75%
15.10
23.97%
7.92
12.56%
92.60
64.31%
84.89
58.95%
39.60
172.17%
48.99
213.00%
12.30
16.18%
2.75
3.61%
22.80
55.61%
32.37
78.95%
16.10
33.54%
11.32
23.57%
1.60
14.55%
0.19
1.73%
17.10
30.54%
11.27
20.13%
10.50
27.63%
6.38
16.78%
5.10
23.18%
9.17
41.66%
2.00
11.11%
0.40
2.22%
36.30
48.40%
30.50
40.66%
8.00
33.33%
5.60
23.33%
6.60
44.00%
9.84
65.60%
0.29
1.60%
2.35
13.16%
81.40
10.20%
26.09
3.27%
4.85
0.82%
94.68
15.94%
549.60
40.89%
430.44
32.03%
Jun-05
5.04
37.12%
5.04
37.12%
1.68
17.68%
1.68
17.68%
53.10
32.58%
53.10
32.58%
101.70
41.68%
101.70
41.68%
23.00
28.40%
23.00
28.40%
266.07
40.19%
266.07
40.19%
12.70
45.36%
12.70
45.36%
11.70
32.50%
11.70
32.50%
9.80
30.63%
9.80
30.63%
19.22
113.05%
19.22
113.05%
25.70
142.78%
25.70
142.78%
16.10
80.50%
16.10
80.50%
9.15
53.37%
9.15
53.37%
13.76
26.09%
13.76
26.09%
19.20
112.94%
19.20
112.94%
41.80
43.09%
41.80
43.09%
3.70
11.23%
3.70
11.23%
80.62
58.00%
80.62
58.00%
3.80
11.18%
3.80
11.18%
15.10
167.78%
15.10
167.78%
4.30
16.54%
4.30
16.54%
12.40
22.14%
12.40
22.14%
11.10
19.47%
11.10
19.47%
0.30
0.62%
0.30
0.62%
27.90
77.50%
27.90
77.50%
27.12
30.48%
27.12
30.48%
8.43
14.62%
8.43
14.62%
7.10
18.21%
7.10
18.21%
23.10
82.50%
23.10
82.50%
35.20
36.29%
35.20
36.29%
18.61
43.28%
18.61
43.28%
10.50
87.50%
10.50
87.50%
5.30
37.86%
5.30
37.86%
7.50
20.83%
7.50
20.83%
6.50
46.43%
6.50
46.43%
5.50
32.35%
5.50
32.35%
10.90
41.92%
10.90
41.92%
125.40
16.54%
125.40
16.54%
456.48
39.42%
456.48
39.42%
620.60
41.02%
620.60
41.02%
Averages
197
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
6.45
5.44
Holdout
MAPE
43.37%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
6.16
3.71
3.56
44.42%
56.18
96.05
77.62%
71.35
53.97
32.55%
33.87
24.98
49.02%
209.51
225.04
23.28%
14.02
12.74
49.97%
20.07
22.84
71.07%
4.98
7.49
44.93%
29.32
9.73
38.56%
21.19
13.50
47.40%
17.95
10.38
33.94%
6.39
5.10
24.48%
41.71
29.75
71.03%
42.78
29.79
89.61%
28.35
23.32
38.45%
10.87
7.59
23.54%
32.92
33.77
42.71%
7.63
8.17
20.94%
11.06
9.09
61.24%
14.33
16.61
69.06%
23.23
18.58
24.78%
14.87
20.42
46.48%
36.95
36.93
54.62%
9.93
21.38
51.19%
27.65
19.37
27.62%
20.73
19.58
47.77%
12.07
17.76
41.98%
11.84
43.49%
3.84
3.78
45.04%
51.29
88.41
68.92%
71.56
52.51
31.39%
28.89
23.80
45.94%
212.93
182.12
19.20%
11.97
14.52
55.80%
17.44
20.82
66.51%
4.53
7.79
45.72%
24.67
11.53
43.61%
19.22
14.35
47.82%
20.93
9.88
32.39%
6.60
5.66
27.38%
42.76
24.64
58.08%
40.37
30.76
95.81%
26.03
26.52
40.94%
12.84
5.13
15.08%
37.64
32.35
41.73%
6.59
7.22
16.78%
10.98
10.50
72.29%
13.62
16.67
70.25%
19.99
19.56
27.97%
16.76
21.19
49.44%
38.67
33.71
46.68%
6.28
23.03
57.97%
22.93
19.18
27.44%
17.29
19.27
45.58%
10.34
15.55
39.18%
10.77
12.45 151.48%
13.04 162.17%
8.32
17.17
31.16%
10.38
14.52
48.90%
8.32
7.94
46.70%
1.83
4.68
30.97%
17.84
19.51
39.63%
5.87
5.21
27.65%
10.31
8.15
36.99%
7.05
9.75
52.64%
249.82
178.32
39.37%
162.58
209.73
30.89%
185.55
270.80
23.85%
6.72
17.35
39.04
46.56%
31.08%
9.79
13.16
44.43%
6.69
8.39
48.54%
2.65
4.21
26.64%
15.17
19.59
38.03%
5.44
5.52
29.06%
10.21
7.71
34.58%
5.44
8.39
45.59%
252.05
156.24
35.48%
121.89
235.45
36.78%
218.79
37.74
5.41
36.72
282.25
37.91
26.47%
45.67%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
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Error
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Error
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Error
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Error
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Error
Error
Error
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Error
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Error
Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
5.47
39.09%
5.47
39.09%
1.32
14.05%
1.32
14.05%
9.00
5.49%
9.00
5.49%
34.34
21.18%
34.34
21.18%
65.30
155.48%
65.30
155.48%
305.33
23.78%
305.33
23.78%
0.28
0.93%
0.28
0.93%
8.30
14.07%
8.30
14.07%
6.20
68.89%
6.20
68.89%
4.20
8.40%
4.20
8.40%
21.00
87.50%
21.00
87.50%
8.10
15.00%
8.10
15.00%
1.84
11.98%
1.84
11.98%
9.13
16.68%
9.13
16.68%
34.50
80.23%
34.50
80.23%
26.30
35.07%
26.30
35.07%
1.26
4.41%
1.26
4.41%
13.08
13.92%
13.08
13.92%
1.20
3.64%
1.20
3.64%
9.00
33.33%
9.00
33.33%
14.30
36.67%
14.30
36.67%
19.10
27.68%
19.10
27.68%
36.20
139.23%
36.20
139.23%
53.60
52.04%
53.60
52.04%
15.90
63.60%
15.90
63.60%
34.50
40.12%
34.50
40.12%
24.90
28.95%
24.90
28.95%
2.40
5.00%
2.40
5.00%
1.80
7.83%
1.80
7.83%
12.50
43.10%
12.50
43.10%
8.35
28.55%
8.35
28.55%
4.74
29.70%
4.74
29.70%
0.13
1.20%
0.13
1.20%
42.83
54.21%
42.83
54.21%
5.10
22.17%
5.10
22.17%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
10.30
93.64%
10.30
93.64%
408.70
139.01%
408.70
139.01%
186.90
26.62%
186.90
26.62%
57.60
7.73%
57.60
7.73%
Aug-04
3.91
30.08%
2.55
19.59%
6.20
124.00%
7.88
157.60%
143.30
146.22%
179.50
183.16%
1.00
0.57%
25.25
14.35%
48.10
69.71%
65.67
95.17%
388.80
27.15%
232.32
16.22%
20.60
71.03%
28.04
96.69%
10.00
16.39%
2.35
3.85%
13.50
50.00%
11.48
42.50%
17.80
30.69%
11.77
20.29%
7.30
15.53%
15.45
32.86%
10.00
18.52%
3.40
6.30%
3.98
19.90%
1.58
7.88%
16.98
22.94%
8.43
11.39%
4.30
5.58%
6.60
8.58%
43.10
68.41%
59.02
93.67%
6.50
19.12%
2.38
6.99%
3.80
3.76%
10.78
10.67%
1.60
3.81%
4.46
10.62%
7.00
58.33%
9.85
82.08%
56.50
75.33%
53.73
71.63%
14.20
27.31%
24.13
46.40%
20.00
51.28%
28.85
73.97%
36.10
38.40%
27.42
29.16%
18.40
55.76%
26.11
79.12%
20.40
26.15%
11.76
15.08%
14.20
18.21%
4.63
5.94%
69.60
61.05%
62.94
55.21%
4.20
23.33%
7.53
41.83%
5.70
21.11%
2.51
9.28%
5.50
14.47%
0.63
1.64%
7.60
42.22%
11.44
63.56%
3.73
26.63%
2.19
15.62%
0.92
1.91%
6.14
12.80%
4.90
40.83%
7.44
61.96%
16.30
39.76%
12.60
30.72%
7.80
25.16%
4.32
13.94%
128.80
15.39%
22.57
2.70%
94.00
20.04%
178.45
38.05%
150.50
24.08%
266.83
42.69%
Sep-04
0.28
2.00%
0.28
2.00%
5.00
33.33%
5.00
33.33%
115.40
35.95%
115.40
35.95%
54.90
20.41%
54.90
20.41%
11.30
9.91%
11.30
9.91%
14.60
1.27%
14.60
1.27%
22.60
90.40%
22.60
90.40%
38.60
183.81%
38.60
183.81%
11.20
43.08%
11.20
43.08%
15.40
77.00%
15.40
77.00%
5.40
14.21%
5.40
14.21%
14.20
50.71%
14.20
50.71%
0.66
4.41%
0.66
4.41%
40.47
42.61%
40.47
42.61%
14.10
38.11%
14.10
38.11%
29.60
46.25%
29.60
46.25%
1.20
4.62%
1.20
4.62%
44.90
34.81%
44.90
34.81%
5.50
17.74%
5.50
17.74%
13.30
83.13%
13.30
83.13%
0.20
0.95%
0.20
0.95%
7.80
10.13%
7.80
10.13%
11.30
24.04%
11.30
24.04%
26.60
31.29%
26.60
31.29%
6.10
12.45%
6.10
12.45%
2.10
3.09%
2.10
3.09%
15.10
29.04%
15.10
29.04%
2.50
6.25%
2.50
6.25%
4.90
37.69%
4.90
37.69%
24.60
55.91%
24.60
55.91%
8.70
39.55%
8.70
39.55%
11.70
146.25%
11.70
146.25%
2.20
15.71%
2.20
15.71%
22.00
32.35%
22.00
32.35%
4.40
33.85%
4.40
33.85%
14.00
38.89%
14.00
38.89%
18.20
47.89%
18.20
47.89%
209.40
27.59%
209.40
27.59%
66.40
9.96%
66.40
9.96%
36.60
4.98%
36.60
4.98%
Oct-04
7.97
113.84%
7.97
113.84%
1.75
21.91%
1.75
21.91%
10.00
5.03%
10.00
5.03%
11.55
6.05%
11.55
6.05%
36.30
86.43%
36.30
86.43%
184.57
17.46%
184.57
17.46%
29.39
226.10%
29.39
226.10%
40.60
203.00%
40.60
203.00%
6.00
32.25%
6.00
32.25%
14.20
52.59%
14.20
52.59%
7.10
25.36%
7.10
25.36%
14.50
43.94%
14.50
43.94%
3.18
16.74%
3.18
16.74%
6.90
10.95%
6.90
10.95%
11.30
20.55%
11.30
20.55%
18.60
27.35%
18.60
27.35%
2.62
9.04%
2.62
9.04%
20.42
19.19%
20.42
19.19%
4.56
11.40%
4.56
11.40%
12.44
68.09%
12.44
68.09%
9.20
48.42%
9.20
48.42%
1.20
1.67%
1.20
1.67%
17.70
61.03%
17.70
61.03%
18.90
32.03%
18.90
32.03%
53.30
59.89%
53.30
59.89%
24.00
46.15%
24.00
46.15%
35.10
87.75%
35.10
87.75%
0.49
1.10%
0.49
1.10%
2.70
15.88%
2.70
15.88%
10.50
30.88%
10.50
30.88%
12.60
74.12%
12.60
74.12%
2.98
19.89%
2.98
19.89%
4.65
29.08%
4.65
29.08%
17.30
40.23%
17.30
40.23%
0.40
2.00%
0.40
2.00%
10.10
32.58%
10.10
32.58%
11.40
40.71%
11.40
40.71%
202.50
93.32%
202.50
93.32%
470.10
41.79%
470.10
41.79%
141.10
25.02%
141.10
25.02%
Nov-04
3.97
20.87%
1.71
9.00%
0.29
3.57%
0.87
10.90%
218.70
59.75%
196.61
53.72%
102.86
34.87%
74.04
25.10%
8.40
10.91%
1.89
2.45%
133.10
9.14%
65.33
4.49%
9.35
20.34%
3.86
8.39%
35.00
36.84%
26.00
27.37%
8.90
98.89%
11.59
128.72%
2.50
4.81%
4.93
9.47%
8.90
32.96%
14.29
52.91%
8.40
19.53%
16.11
37.47%
3.50
16.67%
0.88
4.17%
41.81
39.44%
32.18
30.36%
83.30
60.80%
75.25
54.92%
0.10
0.14%
11.22
15.16%
21.37
41.90%
16.92
33.18%
24.00
35.82%
37.65
56.19%
5.87
13.65%
0.30
0.70%
8.30
51.88%
11.95
74.66%
34.80
267.69%
41.97
322.85%
27.20
75.56%
36.68
101.89%
25.20
37.61%
18.93
28.25%
31.00
56.36%
43.90
79.82%
8.80
36.67%
13.72
57.17%
6.10
8.47%
17.82
24.74%
15.20
24.52%
26.78
43.19%
42.30
141.00%
53.15
177.15%
39.20
68.77%
36.53
64.09%
15.90
38.78%
12.14
29.60%
21.83
40.42%
17.00
31.48%
2.11
11.12%
0.42
2.22%
2.48
24.85%
4.36
43.58%
14.60
34.76%
23.09
54.98%
3.60
18.00%
1.14
5.70%
1.30
4.64%
5.70
20.34%
6.60
23.57%
3.39
12.11%
105.90
16.14%
23.39
3.56%
322.40
123.52%
409.91
157.05%
232.10
26.29%
134.47
15.23%
Dec-04
2.60
21.67%
0.32
2.67%
6.18
154.41%
4.14
103.53%
132.40
186.48%
91.72
129.18%
13.87
6.80%
29.70
14.56%
40.60
96.67%
24.08
57.33%
233.30
22.46%
21.10
2.03%
21.20
42.41%
26.96
53.93%
11.70
20.53%
20.76
36.42%
12.00
120.00%
7.60
76.00%
2.90
6.90%
10.72
25.52%
5.10
16.45%
2.12
6.84%
14.60
52.14%
6.08
21.71%
3.32
16.61%
6.66
33.29%
57.08
285.40%
41.66
208.32%
9.30
16.03%
19.04
32.83%
12.70
15.88%
26.16
32.70%
11.59
68.17%
5.87
34.54%
25.42
30.97%
3.92
4.78%
16.32
90.66%
9.46
52.53%
1.00
5.26%
3.00
15.79%
13.40
47.86%
5.12
18.29%
5.30
7.36%
18.64
25.89%
32.90
43.87%
41.32
55.09%
17.00
23.94%
0.60
0.85%
7.70
17.11%
15.16
33.69%
39.80
34.61%
54.84
47.69%
4.70
6.44%
18.36
25.15%
12.90
25.29%
0.12
0.24%
13.10
436.67%
9.88
329.33%
4.08
11.02%
10.66
28.82%
26.95
48.13%
32.76
58.50%
10.31
44.82%
12.85
55.85%
2.32
21.12%
0.34
3.10%
17.20
39.09%
4.96
11.27%
2.90
16.11%
5.92
32.89%
7.70
30.80%
1.16
4.64%
15.20
116.92%
9.56
73.54%
293.70
83.68%
164.76
46.94%
17.86
3.01%
104.36
17.59%
13.90
1.98%
151.32
21.59%
Jan-05
10.00
47.62%
12.20
58.10%
11.36
54.10%
13.29
63.28%
95.90
82.67%
53.52
46.14%
104.51
100.49%
62.81
60.40%
19.00
38.00%
5.20
10.40%
412.79
53.68%
176.43
22.94%
5.45
20.19%
9.76
36.15%
11.40
54.29%
4.92
23.43%
6.46
23.08%
10.77
38.46%
6.69
16.69%
13.37
33.35%
17.40
102.35%
10.52
61.88%
3.20
7.80%
10.76
26.24%
5.36
23.32%
8.89
38.66%
28.98
64.39%
14.18
31.51%
3.80
7.76%
6.76
13.80%
23.50
26.11%
36.80
40.89%
2.07
7.67%
3.74
13.87%
47.87
75.98%
25.70
40.79%
2.01
5.74%
5.39
15.41%
0.79
4.41%
4.24
23.53%
19.20
36.92%
25.76
49.54%
1.20
1.76%
12.64
18.59%
13.90
27.80%
21.12
42.24%
55.20
240.00%
39.56
172.00%
19.40
48.50%
7.52
18.80%
8.40
14.74%
4.68
8.21%
9.80
21.30%
1.36
2.96%
24.64
74.66%
13.11
39.73%
11.60
232.00%
8.28
165.60%
1.10
3.24%
5.92
17.41%
8.92
59.50%
4.14
27.60%
4.40
24.47%
7.12
39.57%
6.46
80.77%
3.57
44.62%
32.10
139.57%
21.08
91.65%
4.60
38.33%
1.28
10.67%
19.50
139.29%
12.80
91.43%
7.90
35.91%
1.92
8.73%
308.70
37.65%
410.96
50.12%
191.10
30.67%
28.28
4.54%
32.60
5.32%
96.52
15.75%
Feb-05
6.20
31.00%
4.13
20.65%
0.90
9.00%
0.46
4.65%
116.10
70.79%
158.12
96.41%
117.70
91.24%
154.71
119.93%
4.90
6.28%
6.07
7.78%
356.17
38.88%
546.99
59.72%
14.80
32.89%
10.27
22.82%
35.70
39.67%
27.56
30.62%
6.92
28.84%
4.36
18.16%
6.70
20.94%
12.51
39.08%
20.50
39.42%
15.78
30.34%
10.90
22.24%
5.19
10.58%
11.90
38.39%
9.04
29.15%
53.30
37.80%
40.15
28.47%
60.40
232.31%
73.36
282.15%
13.10
23.39%
23.47
41.90%
8.30
18.04%
2.65
5.75%
46.63
97.14%
60.82
126.71%
1.60
4.21%
7.54
19.84%
21.72
57.16%
19.28
50.73%
14.40
38.92%
11.01
29.76%
39.40
41.04%
30.91
32.20%
20.80
74.29%
28.12
100.43%
4.10
6.61%
14.02
22.60%
48.60
49.59%
41.19
42.03%
24.80
60.49%
34.67
84.56%
18.00
24.66%
9.75
13.36%
22.93
104.22%
29.67
134.85%
28.30
707.50%
33.15
828.63%
4.90
11.40%
0.82
1.90%
18.90
118.13%
24.14
150.84%
22.50
59.21%
20.18
53.09%
13.00
50.00%
11.05
42.50%
1.10
2.34%
8.32
17.69%
0.80
4.71%
3.47
20.41%
7.80
32.50%
12.57
52.38%
16.30
116.43%
20.85
148.89%
274.00
32.74%
189.55
22.65%
45.80
6.86%
47.53
7.12%
223.10
23.36%
113.32
11.87%
Mar-05
4.70
26.11%
7.36
40.89%
1.90
21.11%
3.32
36.89%
134.10
176.45%
92.08
121.16%
79.18
50.76%
32.15
20.61%
8.70
17.06%
3.24
6.35%
189.43
19.15%
46.26
4.68%
3.10
7.38%
10.88
25.90%
30.40
112.59%
18.92
70.07%
7.98
38.00%
10.58
50.40%
3.80
10.56%
4.16
11.56%
24.10
44.63%
30.08
55.70%
7.50
28.85%
0.80
3.08%
6.40
24.62%
10.32
39.69%
28.90
87.58%
16.52
50.06%
47.00
146.88%
31.20
97.50%
43.20
139.35%
28.36
91.48%
9.50
45.24%
3.40
16.19%
29.19
50.39%
11.77
20.31%
6.20
24.80%
0.04
0.16%
0.35
1.93%
3.88
21.54%
6.00
40.00%
1.80
12.00%
14.70
31.28%
2.36
5.02%
10.60
21.20%
1.52
3.04%
20.20
44.89%
7.16
15.91%
7.10
12.91%
16.68
30.33%
18.11
27.16%
1.15
1.73%
34.00
125.93%
21.80
80.74%
8.42
24.76%
0.06
0.19%
17.00
283.33%
12.40
206.67%
57.71
60.11%
65.37
68.09%
16.73
60.89%
7.89
28.71%
5.70
43.85%
1.96
15.08%
10.00
45.45%
12.40
56.36%
5.40
10.59%
14.52
28.47%
9.50
33.93%
13.20
47.14%
3.20
12.80%
2.44
9.76%
10.00
76.92%
5.40
41.54%
0.50
0.11%
90.80
19.91%
185.70
23.42%
307.16
38.73%
301.40
29.18%
447.72
43.34%
Apr-05
6.50
65.00%
6.50
65.00%
5.00
71.43%
5.00
71.43%
83.80
108.83%
83.80
108.83%
17.89
10.97%
17.89
10.97%
13.88
21.01%
13.88
21.01%
200.13
24.53%
200.13
24.53%
2.70
6.92%
2.70
6.92%
5.50
13.41%
5.50
13.41%
0.86
5.06%
0.86
5.06%
22.74
119.66%
22.74
119.66%
17.70
42.14%
17.70
42.14%
0.30
0.81%
0.30
0.81%
4.30
25.29%
4.30
25.29%
32.50
171.05%
32.50
171.05%
33.90
94.17%
33.90
94.17%
13.60
20.00%
13.60
20.00%
14.01
32.58%
14.01
32.58%
48.13
39.45%
48.13
39.45%
2.00
5.88%
2.00
5.88%
3.07
14.64%
3.07
14.64%
22.70
206.36%
22.70
206.36%
0.20
0.32%
0.20
0.32%
30.20
33.93%
30.20
33.93%
87.60
64.89%
87.60
64.89%
3.80
8.09%
3.80
8.09%
14.80
23.83%
14.80
23.83%
32.70
136.25%
32.70
136.25%
3.72
8.72%
3.72
8.72%
9.00
36.00%
9.00
36.00%
16.71
31.52%
16.71
31.52%
16.70
32.12%
16.70
32.12%
7.60
28.15%
7.60
28.15%
3.90
27.86%
3.90
27.86%
36.90
51.25%
36.90
51.25%
11.80
42.14%
11.80
42.14%
5.80
36.25%
5.80
36.25%
2.10
11.05%
2.10
11.05%
0.80
0.14%
0.80
0.14%
475.13
44.53%
475.13
44.53%
890.50
56.40%
890.50
56.40%
May-05
8.60
86.00%
11.39
113.90%
1.10
8.46%
0.69
5.27%
40.80
21.25%
18.12
9.44%
8.09
5.58%
31.06
21.42%
20.30
48.33%
29.65
70.58%
16.21
1.68%
126.35
13.07%
10.70
35.67%
16.81
56.02%
35.20
125.71%
44.68
159.57%
0.10
0.48%
3.04
14.45%
0.57
1.47%
5.19
13.31%
1.80
5.45%
7.02
21.27%
16.80
67.20%
23.07
92.28%
7.58
42.51%
11.39
63.89%
27.17
47.39%
39.84
69.50%
36.40
260.00%
43.96
314.00%
14.20
16.32%
3.28
3.77%
9.01
20.47%
3.76
8.54%
21.22
53.04%
30.40
76.00%
47.40
58.52%
42.36
52.30%
17.00
188.89%
20.90
232.22%
4.30
13.03%
9.90
29.98%
80.20
51.08%
68.68
43.75%
15.10
23.97%
7.92
12.56%
92.60
64.31%
84.89
58.95%
39.60
172.17%
48.99
213.00%
12.30
16.18%
2.75
3.61%
22.80
55.61%
32.37
78.95%
16.10
33.54%
11.32
23.57%
1.60
14.55%
0.19
1.73%
17.10
30.54%
11.27
20.13%
10.50
27.63%
6.38
16.78%
5.10
23.18%
9.17
41.66%
2.00
11.11%
0.40
2.22%
36.30
48.40%
30.50
40.66%
8.00
33.33%
5.60
23.33%
6.60
44.00%
9.84
65.60%
0.29
1.60%
2.35
13.16%
81.40
10.20%
26.09
3.27%
4.85
0.82%
94.68
15.94%
549.60
40.89%
430.44
32.03%
Jun-05
5.04
37.12%
5.04
37.12%
1.68
17.68%
1.68
17.68%
53.10
32.58%
53.10
32.58%
101.70
41.68%
101.70
41.68%
23.00
28.40%
23.00
28.40%
266.07
40.19%
266.07
40.19%
12.70
45.36%
12.70
45.36%
11.70
32.50%
11.70
32.50%
9.80
30.63%
9.80
30.63%
19.22
113.05%
19.22
113.05%
25.70
142.78%
25.70
142.78%
16.10
80.50%
16.10
80.50%
9.15
53.37%
9.15
53.37%
13.76
26.09%
13.76
26.09%
19.20
112.94%
19.20
112.94%
41.80
43.09%
41.80
43.09%
3.70
11.23%
3.70
11.23%
80.62
58.00%
80.62
58.00%
3.80
11.18%
3.80
11.18%
15.10
167.78%
15.10
167.78%
4.30
16.54%
4.30
16.54%
12.40
22.14%
12.40
22.14%
11.10
19.47%
11.10
19.47%
0.30
0.62%
0.30
0.62%
27.90
77.50%
27.90
77.50%
27.12
30.48%
27.12
30.48%
8.43
14.62%
8.43
14.62%
7.10
18.21%
7.10
18.21%
23.10
82.50%
23.10
82.50%
35.20
36.29%
35.20
36.29%
18.61
43.28%
18.61
43.28%
10.50
87.50%
10.50
87.50%
5.30
37.86%
5.30
37.86%
7.50
20.83%
7.50
20.83%
6.50
46.43%
6.50
46.43%
5.50
32.35%
5.50
32.35%
10.90
41.92%
10.90
41.92%
125.40
16.54%
125.40
16.54%
456.48
39.42%
456.48
39.42%
620.60
41.02%
620.60
41.02%
Averages
198
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
6.45
5.44
Holdout
MAPE
43.37%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
6.16
3.71
3.56
44.42%
56.18
96.05
77.62%
71.35
53.97
32.55%
33.87
24.98
49.02%
209.51
225.04
23.28%
14.02
12.74
49.97%
20.07
22.84
71.07%
4.98
7.49
44.93%
29.32
9.73
38.56%
21.19
13.50
47.40%
17.95
10.38
33.94%
6.39
5.10
24.48%
41.71
29.75
71.03%
42.78
29.79
89.61%
28.35
23.32
38.45%
10.87
7.59
23.54%
32.92
33.77
42.71%
7.63
8.17
20.94%
11.06
9.09
61.24%
14.33
16.61
69.06%
23.23
18.58
24.78%
14.87
20.42
46.48%
36.95
36.93
54.62%
9.93
21.38
51.19%
27.65
19.37
27.62%
20.73
19.58
47.77%
12.07
17.76
41.98%
11.84
43.49%
3.84
3.78
45.04%
51.29
88.41
68.92%
71.56
52.51
31.39%
28.89
23.80
45.94%
212.93
182.12
19.20%
11.97
14.52
55.80%
17.44
20.82
66.51%
4.53
7.79
45.72%
24.67
11.53
43.61%
19.22
14.35
47.82%
20.93
9.88
32.39%
6.60
5.66
27.38%
42.76
24.64
58.08%
40.37
30.76
95.81%
26.03
26.52
40.94%
12.84
5.13
15.08%
37.64
32.35
41.73%
6.59
7.22
16.78%
10.98
10.50
72.29%
13.62
16.67
70.25%
19.99
19.56
27.97%
16.76
21.19
49.44%
38.67
33.71
46.68%
6.28
23.03
57.97%
22.93
19.18
27.44%
17.29
19.27
45.58%
10.34
15.55
39.18%
10.77
12.45 151.48%
13.04 162.17%
8.32
17.17
31.16%
10.38
14.52
48.90%
8.32
7.94
46.70%
1.83
4.68
30.97%
17.84
19.51
39.63%
5.87
5.21
27.65%
10.31
8.15
36.99%
7.05
9.75
52.64%
249.82
178.32
39.37%
162.58
209.73
30.89%
185.55
270.80
23.85%
6.72
17.35
39.04
46.56%
31.08%
9.79
13.16
44.43%
6.69
8.39
48.54%
2.65
4.21
26.64%
15.17
19.59
38.03%
5.44
5.52
29.06%
10.21
7.71
34.58%
5.44
8.39
45.59%
252.05
156.24
35.48%
121.89
235.45
36.78%
218.79
37.74
5.41
36.72
282.25
37.91
26.47%
45.67%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
5.19
37.08%
5.19
37.08%
3.16
33.71%
3.16
33.71%
55.68
33.95%
55.68
33.95%
3.69
2.28%
3.69
2.28%
60.45
143.93%
60.45
143.93%
357.39
27.83%
357.39
27.83%
13.86
45.47%
13.86
45.47%
13.37
22.66%
13.37
22.66%
1.83
20.35%
1.83
20.35%
1.03
2.06%
1.03
2.06%
20.18
84.07%
20.18
84.07%
3.57
6.61%
3.57
6.61%
1.47
9.55%
1.47
9.55%
17.18
31.37%
17.18
31.37%
4.73
11.01%
4.73
11.01%
25.25
33.67%
25.25
33.67%
4.24
14.91%
4.24
14.91%
13.45
14.30%
13.45
14.30%
4.77
14.42%
4.77
14.42%
6.01
22.27%
6.01
22.27%
15.14
38.82%
15.14
38.82%
9.85
14.28%
9.85
14.28%
31.83
122.43%
31.83
122.43%
20.21
19.62%
20.21
19.62%
29.99
119.95%
29.99
119.95%
25.00
29.07%
25.00
29.07%
9.60
11.16%
9.60
11.16%
4.90
10.22%
4.90
10.22%
3.49
15.19%
3.49
15.19%
7.12
24.55%
7.12
24.55%
5.26
17.97%
5.26
17.97%
8.31
52.06%
8.31
52.06%
0.24
2.30%
0.24
2.30%
30.11
38.12%
30.11
38.12%
7.98
34.69%
7.98
34.69%
1.14
5.41%
1.14
5.41%
8.71
79.16%
8.71
79.16%
405.80
138.03%
405.80
138.03%
190.34
27.11%
190.34
27.11%
10.23
1.37%
10.23
1.37%

Aug-04
1.25
9.60%
0.51
3.96%
6.74
134.80%
8.50
170.02%
103.65
105.76%
133.89
136.63%
14.11
8.02%
42.63
24.22%
29.12
42.21%
43.84
63.54%
431.88
30.16%
281.86
19.68%
15.64
53.91%
22.33
77.00%
9.00
14.76%
1.20
1.97%
15.78
58.43%
14.09
52.20%
14.17
24.44%
7.60
13.10%
7.36
15.66%
1.42
3.01%
3.59
6.64%
3.98
7.36%
3.69
18.43%
1.24
6.19%
3.91
5.28%
6.60
8.92%
37.93
49.26%
32.07
41.65%
34.56
54.85%
49.19
78.08%
2.68
7.88%
2.02
5.93%
6.71
6.65%
7.43
7.35%
6.30
15.00%
0.95
2.25%
15.97
133.08%
20.16
168.04%
50.97
67.96%
50.97
67.96%
8.92
17.16%
18.06
34.73%
20.58
52.78%
29.52
75.70%
15.54
16.53%
3.77
4.01%
18.29
55.44%
25.99
78.75%
12.91
16.55%
3.14
4.03%
1.06
1.36%
10.48
13.44%
62.87
55.15%
55.20
48.42%
0.69
3.82%
1.91
10.61%
7.02
26.02%
4.03
14.92%
4.80
12.62%
0.19
0.49%
3.45
19.15%
6.66
37.02%
1.94
13.84%
0.13
0.92%
0.03
0.05%
7.23
15.06%
3.40
28.37%
5.72
47.63%
22.58
55.07%
19.82
48.34%
14.25
45.95%
11.73
37.85%
194.48
23.24%
98.10
11.72%
81.83
17.45%
164.45
35.06%
117.23
18.76%
228.57
36.57%
Sep-04
2.01
14.34%
2.01
14.34%
3.62
24.13%
3.62
24.13%
125.89
39.22%
125.89
39.22%
75.20
27.95%
75.20
27.95%
29.34
25.74%
29.34
25.74%
78.55
6.85%
78.55
6.85%
17.30
69.21%
17.30
69.21%
34.07
162.25%
34.07
162.25%
16.43
63.18%
16.43
63.18%
22.95
114.77%
22.95
114.77%
1.35
3.54%
1.35
3.54%
24.87
88.82%
24.87
88.82%
0.72
4.79%
0.72
4.79%
27.79
29.25%
27.79
29.25%
0.26
0.69%
0.26
0.69%
30.23
47.24%
30.23
47.24%
5.47
21.06%
5.47
21.06%
39.01
30.24%
39.01
30.24%
4.37
14.11%
4.37
14.11%
12.98
81.10%
12.98
81.10%
6.35
30.25%
6.35
30.25%
13.54
17.58%
13.54
17.58%
4.20
8.93%
4.20
8.93%
2.73
3.21%
2.73
3.21%
1.91
3.89%
1.91
3.89%
3.67
5.39%
3.67
5.39%
29.63
56.98%
29.63
56.98%
11.33
28.33%
11.33
28.33%
6.03
46.39%
6.03
46.39%
21.77
49.47%
21.77
49.47%
9.91
45.02%
9.91
45.02%
12.75
159.38%
12.75
159.38%
1.82
12.98%
1.82
12.98%
10.20
15.01%
10.20
15.01%
4.30
33.10%
4.30
33.10%
17.96
49.90%
17.96
49.90%
24.68
64.96%
24.68
64.96%
173.59
22.87%
173.59
22.87%
65.02
9.75%
65.02
9.75%
39.85
5.42%
39.85
5.42%
Oct-04
4.96
70.91%
4.96
70.91%
1.91
23.94%
1.91
23.94%
26.91
13.52%
26.91
13.52%
8.73
4.57%
8.73
4.57%
38.05
90.60%
38.05
90.60%
108.68
10.28%
108.68
10.28%
26.81
206.25%
26.81
206.25%
38.13
190.65%
38.13
190.65%
5.68
30.52%
5.68
30.52%
17.48
64.73%
17.48
64.73%
11.99
42.83%
11.99
42.83%
21.86
66.24%
21.86
66.24%
2.56
13.46%
2.56
13.46%
6.67
10.58%
6.67
10.58%
10.24
18.62%
10.24
18.62%
20.07
29.52%
20.07
29.52%
3.98
13.73%
3.98
13.73%
17.97
16.88%
17.97
16.88%
2.62
6.54%
2.62
6.54%
7.58
41.49%
7.58
41.49%
20.60
108.43%
20.60
108.43%
10.81
15.02%
10.81
15.02%
18.36
63.31%
18.36
63.31%
34.11
57.81%
34.11
57.81%
43.63
49.02%
43.63
49.02%
23.13
44.48%
23.13
44.48%
43.39
108.48%
43.39
108.48%
23.49
52.10%
23.49
52.10%
2.18
12.85%
2.18
12.85%
10.35
30.43%
10.35
30.43%
16.09
94.64%
16.09
94.64%
5.63
37.52%
5.63
37.52%
2.87
17.95%
2.87
17.95%
14.98
34.83%
14.98
34.83%
3.92
19.62%
3.92
19.62%
8.01
25.84%
8.01
25.84%
12.28
43.86%
12.28
43.86%
458.07
211.09%
458.07
211.09%
540.68
48.06%
540.68
48.06%
205.14
36.37%
205.14
36.37%
Nov-04
6.78
35.67%
4.94
26.02%
3.24
40.54%
4.93
61.62%
155.82
42.57%
124.29
33.96%
66.83
22.65%
32.60
11.05%
10.85
14.09%
24.02
31.20%
280.91
19.29%
104.65
7.19%
9.44
20.51%
3.95
8.59%
44.77
47.12%
37.23
39.19%
6.62
73.56%
8.96
99.59%
15.92
30.61%
10.50
20.20%
13.47
49.87%
19.54
72.35%
6.67
15.52%
14.12
32.84%
5.21
24.80%
2.84
13.52%
28.82
27.19%
17.25
16.27%
95.99
70.07%
89.84
65.58%
8.90
12.03%
21.33
28.83%
18.87
37.00%
14.05
27.55%
27.76
41.43%
41.97
62.65%
6.78
15.76%
1.34
3.12%
8.10
50.61%
11.71
73.20%
23.07
177.45%
23.07
177.45%
29.68
82.45%
39.53
109.81%
20.80
31.04%
13.86
20.69%
40.09
72.89%
54.35
98.82%
23.91
99.62%
31.10
129.56%
3.36
4.67%
14.66
20.37%
15.93
25.70%
27.62
44.55%
34.06
113.52%
43.67
145.55%
39.02
68.45%
36.32
63.72%
11.72
28.60%
7.33
17.89%
24.03
44.49%
19.53
36.17%
1.12
5.91%
1.56
8.20%
3.90
39.01%
5.99
59.86%
21.12
50.29%
30.59
72.83%
4.73
23.64%
2.44
12.18%
1.99
7.10%
1.91
6.83%
8.23
29.40%
5.27
18.81%
73.76
11.24%
183.22
27.93%
358.37
137.31%
451.27
172.90%
92.70
10.50%
25.84
2.93%
Dec-04
1.36
11.29%
3.48
29.04%
6.56
164.03%
4.45
111.23%
140.15
197.39%
97.92
137.91%
27.51
13.49%
18.79
9.21%
33.89
80.68%
18.71
44.54%
119.84
11.54%
111.87
10.77%
19.38
38.77%
25.51
51.02%
13.93
24.44%
22.54
39.55%
6.06
60.63%
2.85
28.50%
11.13
26.50%
17.30
41.20%
7.19
23.21%
0.45
1.44%
18.39
65.68%
9.11
32.54%
3.70
18.52%
6.96
34.82%
55.22
276.10%
40.18
200.88%
15.39
26.54%
23.91
41.23%
0.58
0.72%
16.46
20.58%
15.10
88.85%
8.68
51.08%
12.54
15.27%
6.39
7.78%
19.53
108.51%
12.03
66.81%
4.13
21.73%
0.50
2.62%
4.42
15.79%
4.42
15.79%
3.80
5.27%
17.44
24.22%
34.38
45.84%
42.51
56.68%
18.71
26.35%
0.77
1.08%
15.36
34.13%
3.29
7.30%
43.76
38.06%
58.01
50.44%
3.07
4.21%
17.06
23.37%
10.28
20.15%
1.98
3.88%
14.96
498.81%
11.37
379.04%
5.51
14.90%
11.80
31.92%
29.98
53.53%
35.18
62.83%
5.70
24.79%
9.16
39.83%
4.04
36.74%
1.03
9.39%
16.84
38.26%
4.67
10.61%
1.60
8.86%
4.88
27.09%
2.33
9.31%
3.14
12.55%
7.77
59.79%
3.62
27.83%
282.18
80.39%
155.54
44.31%
174.20
29.36%
20.71
3.49%
60.65
8.65%
91.68
13.08%
Jan-05
8.57
40.81%
11.06
52.65%
11.04
52.55%
13.03
62.04%
139.10
119.91%
88.08
75.93%
156.33
150.31%
104.26
100.25%
24.74
49.48%
9.79
19.58%
477.95
62.15%
228.56
29.72%
7.08
26.23%
0.27
0.99%
35.38
168.48%
24.10
114.78%
14.03
50.10%
16.82
60.08%
6.97
17.39%
13.59
33.91%
18.91
111.25%
11.73
69.00%
5.10
12.43%
4.12
10.06%
5.73
24.90%
9.18
39.92%
39.59
87.98%
22.67
50.38%
16.45
33.58%
3.36
6.86%
12.03
13.36%
27.62
30.69%
10.77
39.91%
3.22
11.93%
21.49
34.11%
4.59
7.29%
4.41
12.59%
3.47
9.93%
3.67
20.37%
0.67
3.70%
24.33
46.78%
24.33
46.78%
7.06
10.39%
19.25
28.31%
4.21
8.41%
13.37
26.73%
60.76
264.15%
44.00
191.32%
13.99
34.98%
3.19
7.98%
15.75
27.63%
1.20
2.11%
22.64
49.22%
8.91
19.38%
21.81
66.08%
10.84
32.86%
23.33
466.58%
17.66
353.26%
1.09
3.22%
5.93
17.43%
17.30
115.33%
10.84
72.26%
0.17
0.94%
3.74
20.75%
6.41
80.16%
3.53
44.13%
35.39
153.87%
23.71
103.09%
5.38
44.85%
1.91
15.88%
13.68
97.68%
8.14
58.15%
0.28
1.27%
4.62
21.02%
158.28
19.30%
290.62
35.44%
45.41
7.29%
88.27
14.17%
204.73
33.40%
41.18
6.72%
Feb-05
7.83
39.16%
6.01
30.03%
1.59
15.92%
0.33
3.31%
51.77
31.57%
84.14
51.30%
131.44
101.89%
170.51
132.18%
13.23
16.97%
3.52
4.51%
297.36
32.46%
479.36
52.33%
6.86
15.25%
1.14
2.54%
32.08
35.64%
23.39
25.99%
11.54
48.08%
9.67
40.29%
0.70
2.18%
5.60
17.51%
17.05
32.79%
11.81
22.71%
7.10
14.49%
0.82
1.67%
13.13
42.36%
10.45
33.71%
70.85
50.25%
60.32
42.78%
38.62
148.55%
48.32
185.83%
22.30
39.81%
34.04
60.78%
12.32
26.79%
7.27
15.81%
31.96
66.58%
43.95
91.56%
3.52
9.27%
1.65
4.35%
16.83
44.30%
13.66
35.95%
9.52
25.72%
9.52
25.72%
32.02
33.35%
22.42
23.35%
24.44
87.28%
32.30
115.37%
20.58
33.19%
32.96
53.16%
44.24
45.14%
36.18
36.92%
44.13
107.63%
56.90
138.78%
2.66
3.64%
7.89
10.81%
32.59
148.14%
40.78
185.36%
19.15
478.85%
22.63
565.68%
5.93
13.80%
0.37
0.87%
22.28
139.22%
28.02
175.11%
18.68
49.16%
15.78
41.53%
11.92
45.84%
9.81
37.71%
9.62
20.48%
18.12
38.55%
0.70
4.10%
3.35
19.71%
3.18
13.25%
7.26
30.24%
4.70
33.59%
7.51
53.63%
231.85
27.70%
141.08
16.86%
0.58
0.09%
99.53
14.90%
138.43
14.50%
15.94
1.67%
Mar-05
3.70
20.57%
6.56
36.46%
2.49
27.71%
0.20
2.17%
117.12
154.11%
78.50
103.28%
77.41
49.62%
30.73
19.70%
7.41
14.54%
4.27
8.37%
123.87
12.53%
98.70
9.98%
6.36
15.15%
13.49
32.12%
22.77
84.35%
12.82
47.48%
5.12
24.37%
8.29
39.50%
3.95
10.97%
10.36
28.78%
23.54
43.59%
29.63
54.87%
15.64
60.17%
7.31
28.13%
6.83
26.27%
10.66
41.02%
31.10
94.25%
18.28
55.40%
29.49
92.14%
17.19
53.71%
50.19
161.89%
33.95
109.51%
11.69
55.65%
5.15
24.52%
13.49
23.28%
0.80
1.37%
9.63
38.51%
2.70
10.81%
2.46
13.67%
1.63
9.07%
18.58
123.87%
18.58
123.87%
18.54
39.45%
5.43
11.56%
1.71
3.41%
8.63
17.27%
23.92
53.16%
10.14
22.52%
2.90
5.28%
13.32
24.22%
13.86
20.78%
2.25
3.37%
37.74
139.77%
24.79
91.81%
15.67
46.08%
5.73
16.87%
13.13
218.85%
9.30
155.08%
58.13
60.55%
65.71
68.44%
5.28
19.21%
1.27
4.63%
6.28
48.34%
2.43
18.67%
9.02
41.02%
11.62
52.82%
1.50
2.94%
11.40
22.35%
11.61
41.45%
14.88
53.16%
1.12
4.48%
5.90
23.58%
5.52
42.43%
1.81
13.94%
220.75
48.41%
85.40
18.73%
120.12
15.15%
254.70
32.12%
242.55
23.48%
400.64
38.78%
Apr-05
5.87
58.74%
5.87
58.74%
4.29
61.34%
4.29
61.34%
108.94
141.47%
108.94
141.47%
52.70
32.33%
52.70
32.33%
5.64
8.54%
5.64
8.54%
247.83
30.37%
247.83
30.37%
0.86
2.20%
0.86
2.20%
19.62
47.86%
19.62
47.86%
0.82
4.83%
0.82
4.83%
10.59
55.73%
10.59
55.73%
6.30
15.00%
6.30
15.00%
6.51
17.58%
6.51
17.58%
5.37
31.56%
5.37
31.56%
64.84
341.26%
64.84
341.26%
16.75
46.52%
16.75
46.52%
6.84
10.05%
6.84
10.05%
6.27
14.59%
6.27
14.59%
61.49
50.40%
61.49
50.40%
1.53
4.51%
1.53
4.51%
4.05
19.27%
4.05
19.27%
23.93
217.52%
23.93
217.52%
11.12
17.65%
11.12
17.65%
43.63
49.03%
43.63
49.03%
67.78
50.21%
67.78
50.21%
18.60
39.59%
18.60
39.59%
10.16
16.35%
10.16
16.35%
42.90
178.74%
42.90
178.74%
0.20
0.46%
0.20
0.46%
9.63
38.52%
9.63
38.52%
12.23
23.07%
12.23
23.07%
23.76
45.70%
23.76
45.70%
2.57
9.52%
2.57
9.52%
2.67
19.08%
2.67
19.08%
22.49
31.23%
22.49
31.23%
11.44
40.84%
11.44
40.84%
7.64
47.77%
7.64
47.77%
2.64
13.92%
2.64
13.92%
154.31
26.29%
154.31
26.29%
379.05
35.53%
379.05
35.53%
724.07
45.86%
724.07
45.86%
May-05
6.70
66.97%
9.20
92.02%
2.15
16.56%
0.53
4.05%
35.13
18.30%
11.60
6.04%
61.82
42.63%
92.84
64.03%
13.40
31.90%
21.71
51.68%
73.96
7.65%
230.05
23.80%
9.51
31.69%
15.43
51.44%
25.51
91.09%
33.53
119.76%
2.28
10.87%
0.52
2.50%
10.29
26.39%
5.99
15.35%
7.74
23.44%
13.85
41.96%
14.13
56.50%
19.99
79.98%
5.97
33.51%
9.54
53.53%
15.36
26.80%
26.27
45.81%
32.78
234.13%
39.80
284.25%
24.12
27.73%
14.69
16.89%
10.36
23.54%
5.31
12.07%
14.12
35.30%
22.24
55.59%
48.07
59.35%
43.13
53.25%
14.78
164.17%
18.34
203.80%
2.67
8.10%
2.67
8.10%
88.32
56.26%
78.02
49.69%
17.33
27.51%
10.48
16.64%
82.67
57.41%
73.47
51.02%
42.88
186.43%
52.76
229.40%
4.33
5.69%
6.42
8.45%
15.79
38.50%
24.30
59.28%
8.46
17.62%
2.53
5.27%
1.65
15.04%
3.55
32.29%
0.92
1.64%
9.46
16.89%
10.64
27.99%
6.53
17.19%
0.32
1.45%
3.67
16.66%
0.77
4.30%
3.59
19.95%
24.49
32.65%
16.91
22.55%
4.43
18.46%
1.50
6.23%
8.72
58.13%
12.28
81.85%
3.57
19.94%
1.42
7.93%
102.19
12.81%
2.18
0.27%
138.11
23.25%
247.92
41.74%
415.21
30.89%
275.89
20.53%
Jun-05
1.74
12.81%
1.74
12.81%
0.42
4.37%
0.42
4.37%
30.74
18.86%
30.74
18.86%
43.48
17.82%
43.48
17.82%
25.81
31.86%
25.81
31.86%
314.03
47.44%
314.03
47.44%
11.87
42.38%
11.87
42.38%
14.92
41.46%
14.92
41.46%
13.56
42.38%
13.56
42.38%
6.73
39.59%
6.73
39.59%
23.91
132.84%
23.91
132.84%
18.22
91.10%
18.22
91.10%
5.50
32.04%
5.50
32.04%
6.60
12.51%
6.60
12.51%
25.75
151.47%
25.75
151.47%
34.71
35.78%
34.71
35.78%
3.64
11.04%
3.64
11.04%
73.26
52.70%
73.26
52.70%
0.98
2.87%
0.98
2.87%
14.42
160.25%
14.42
160.25%
0.70
2.70%
0.70
2.70%
12.05
21.52%
12.05
21.52%
0.87
1.52%
0.87
1.52%
31.69
66.03%
31.69
66.03%
27.80
77.23%
27.80
77.23%
19.09
21.45%
19.09
21.45%
10.30
17.88%
10.30
17.88%
0.30
0.78%
0.30
0.78%
12.71
45.40%
12.71
45.40%
37.56
38.72%
37.56
38.72%
9.96
23.15%
9.96
23.15%
12.08
100.68%
12.08
100.68%
4.44
31.72%
4.44
31.72%
20.78
57.72%
20.78
57.72%
8.14
58.15%
8.14
58.15%
4.47
26.28%
4.47
26.28%
11.77
45.29%
11.77
45.29%
69.32
9.15%
69.32
9.15%
318.11
27.47%
318.11
27.47%
381.07
25.19%
381.07
25.19%
Averages
199
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
5.90
4.66
Holdout
MAPE
34.83%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
5.51
3.61
3.94
49.97%
41.77
90.91
76.39%
48.04
59.94
39.46%
28.37
24.33
45.88%
215.63
242.69
24.88%
17.83
12.08
47.25%
16.83
25.30
77.56%
5.25
8.31
40.61%
22.02
10.16
34.61%
17.76
13.25
48.18%
14.78
12.14
41.81%
5.48
4.99
23.35%
29.05
30.66
82.74%
44.49
27.03
73.55%
22.84
22.48
38.89%
11.91
8.78
29.58%
29.68
27.77
32.26%
8.00
9.38
25.12%
8.50
9.25
64.36%
15.43
16.69
71.95%
19.15
20.48
27.53%
13.20
18.53
41.79%
52.36
34.90
60.05%
17.99
23.63
62.56%
23.38
18.26
28.15%
26.89
19.56
52.97%
18.04
18.83
46.55%
11.06
38.67%
3.65
3.78
46.83%
42.60
80.55
66.01%
48.98
56.35
37.13%
27.02
23.76
43.67%
234.64
220.13
23.02%
15.39
12.73
49.10%
16.35
22.91
71.13%
4.66
8.29
40.33%
20.14
10.81
37.24%
16.93
12.68
45.30%
15.57
11.21
38.58%
5.42
5.54
26.18%
30.12
26.22
70.45%
43.32
26.02
75.62%
23.12
26.20
41.80%
11.14
5.78
18.69%
27.15
27.71
33.18%
7.98
6.63
16.08%
8.26
9.31
68.40%
15.43
16.69
71.95%
16.70
21.46
30.64%
12.58
20.80
47.86%
54.99
31.33
51.57%
16.26
23.98
66.98%
21.19
18.64
28.69%
27.03
21.41
52.99%
17.96
16.75
44.17%
12.17 159.06%
7.79
14.95
26.25%
11.41
14.94
53.24%
5.64
6.42
42.41%
1.89
4.17
28.75%
16.30
17.30
39.62%
4.32
5.64
29.68%
9.28
7.73
33.35%
7.86
8.70
39.96%
214.10
210.38
52.54%
106.29
200.98
31.48%
190.89
219.32
21.20%
9.78
11.40 143.17%
6.21
16.14
38.54
47.01%
27.88%
9.85
13.88
49.60%
4.45
7.03
45.15%
2.59
3.98
25.73%
14.81
17.60
38.50%
3.69
5.87
30.69%
8.04
8.14
34.73%
7.29
8.01
35.68%
222.94
184.77
46.89%
74.71
235.00
38.52%
211.98
34.27
5.13
34.16
203.34
37.20
19.54%
45.46%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
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Error
Jul-04
4.95
35.35%
4.95
35.35%
2.43
25.86%
2.43
25.86%
96.76
59.00%
96.76
59.00%
25.58
15.78%
25.58
15.78%
76.11
181.23%
76.11
181.23%
207.15
16.13%
207.15
16.13%
24.99
81.98%
24.99
81.98%
8.82
14.94%
8.82
14.94%
3.81
42.32%
3.81
42.32%
10.71
21.42%
10.71
21.42%
31.88
132.85%
31.88
132.85%
9.49
17.57%
9.49
17.57%
1.10
7.16%
1.10
7.16%
4.16
7.59%
4.16
7.59%
23.24
54.04%
23.24
54.04%
30.31
40.42%
30.31
40.42%
0.51
1.79%
0.51
1.79%
2.51
2.68%
2.51
2.68%
10.19
30.78%
10.19
30.78%
7.22
26.74%
7.22
26.74%
22.58
57.90%
22.58
57.90%
2.57
3.72%
2.57
3.72%
31.31
120.41%
31.31
120.41%
37.97
36.87%
37.97
36.87%
29.29
117.18%
29.29
117.18%
26.10
30.35%
26.10
30.35%
21.10
24.53%
21.10
24.53%
4.27
8.90%
4.27
8.90%
1.01
4.37%
1.01
4.37%
5.73
19.75%
5.73
19.75%
0.80
2.74%
0.80
2.74%
10.85
67.97%
10.85
67.97%
0.70
6.64%
0.70
6.64%
27.70
35.07%
27.70
35.07%
6.69
29.10%
6.69
29.10%
3.81
18.17%
3.81
18.17%
13.35
121.40%
13.35
121.40%
389.74
132.56%
389.74
132.56%
132.59
18.89%
132.59
18.89%
4.39
0.59%
4.39
0.59%
Alpha, Beta Fitted

Aug-04
3.49
26.84%
5.96
45.86%
4.78
95.61%
6.25
124.95%
92.02
93.90%
120.52
122.98%
45.23
25.70%
78.41
44.55%
28.27
40.97%
42.86
62.12%
253.21
17.68%
76.39
5.33%
18.26
62.95%
25.34
87.40%
1.28
2.10%
7.68
12.58%
11.98
44.36%
9.73
36.02%
19.99
34.46%
14.28
24.63%
10.23
21.78%
4.72
10.04%
9.73
18.02%
3.09
5.72%
3.77
18.84%
1.33
6.66%
14.87
20.10%
6.01
8.12%
34.44
44.73%
28.06
36.44%
27.79
44.12%
41.41
65.74%
8.68
25.53%
4.88
14.36%
19.80
19.60%
7.62
7.54%
7.40
17.61%
2.21
5.26%
21.80
181.67%
26.87
223.92%
52.95
70.60%
52.95
70.60%
16.08
30.93%
26.30
50.57%
21.88
56.11%
31.02
79.53%
35.86
38.15%
27.14
28.87%
7.32
22.19%
13.37
40.52%
10.54
13.51%
0.42
0.54%
10.85
13.91%
0.78
1.00%
71.70
62.89%
65.35
57.33%
2.93
16.28%
0.67
3.73%
8.67
32.12%
5.92
21.94%
7.98
21.00%
3.48
9.15%
0.68
3.75%
1.92
10.68%
1.90
13.54%
0.08
0.57%
3.75
7.81%
2.89
6.01%
4.68
38.96%
7.18
59.81%
19.84
48.40%
16.67
40.66%
11.68
37.68%
8.78
28.33%
350.98
41.93%
278.08
33.22%
134.11
28.60%
224.58
47.88%
27.15
4.34%
124.97
19.99%
Sep-04
1.16
8.27%
1.16
8.27%
5.43
36.20%
5.43
36.20%
144.83
45.12%
144.83
45.12%
79.05
29.39%
79.05
29.39%
46.25
40.57%
46.25
40.57%
88.01
7.67%
88.01
7.67%
13.33
53.31%
13.33
53.31%
38.37
182.71%
38.37
182.71%
14.22
54.69%
14.22
54.69%
24.36
121.82%
24.36
121.82%
8.04
21.16%
8.04
21.16%
21.50
76.78%
21.50
76.78%
0.76
5.04%
0.76
5.04%
38.19
40.20%
38.19
40.20%
5.70
15.41%
5.70
15.41%
18.40
28.75%
18.40
28.75%
1.01
3.87%
1.01
3.87%
41.06
31.83%
41.06
31.83%
2.80
9.03%
2.80
9.03%
14.20
88.78%
14.20
88.78%
10.10
48.09%
10.10
48.09%
8.41
10.92%
8.41
10.92%
4.75
10.10%
4.75
10.10%
2.83
3.33%
2.83
3.33%
16.82
34.32%
16.82
34.32%
9.41
13.84%
9.41
13.84%
25.28
48.62%
25.28
48.62%
5.37
13.43%
5.37
13.43%
6.31
48.55%
6.31
48.55%
19.97
45.38%
19.97
45.38%
7.60
34.57%
7.60
34.57%
8.61
107.60%
8.61
107.60%
2.68
19.13%
2.68
19.13%
5.14
7.56%
5.14
7.56%
7.05
54.27%
7.05
54.27%
14.95
41.53%
14.95
41.53%
23.17
60.98%
23.17
60.98%
375.08
49.42%
375.08
49.42%
10.72
1.61%
10.72
1.61%
32.68
4.45%
32.68
4.45%
Oct-04
7.00
100.01%
7.00
100.01%
0.87
10.86%
0.87
10.86%
64.57
32.45%
64.57
32.45%
8.27
4.33%
8.27
4.33%
26.37
62.79%
26.37
62.79%
283.17
26.78%
283.17
26.78%
20.36
156.60%
20.36
156.60%
40.27
201.37%
40.27
201.37%
1.29
6.93%
1.29
6.93%
24.61
91.14%
24.61
91.14%
11.07
39.53%
11.07
39.53%
18.94
57.41%
18.94
57.41%
0.99
5.19%
0.99
5.19%
3.01
4.78%
3.01
4.78%
5.94
10.80%
5.94
10.80%
4.06
5.98%
4.06
5.98%
1.76
6.08%
1.76
6.08%
11.60
10.90%
11.60
10.90%
1.82
4.54%
1.82
4.54%
2.24
12.28%
2.24
12.28%
35.57
187.19%
35.57
187.19%
12.25
17.02%
12.25
17.02%
11.48
39.60%
11.48
39.60%
29.60
50.18%
29.60
50.18%
56.35
63.31%
56.35
63.31%
25.79
49.59%
25.79
49.59%
37.75
94.37%
37.75
94.37%
36.98
82.02%
36.98
82.02%
1.62
9.55%
1.62
9.55%
8.37
24.62%
8.37
24.62%
17.09
100.51%
17.09
100.51%
2.36
15.76%
2.36
15.76%
3.24
20.23%
3.24
20.23%
12.00
27.91%
12.00
27.91%
4.24
21.22%
4.24
21.22%
0.69
2.21%
0.69
2.21%
4.59
16.38%
4.59
16.38%
409.34
188.63%
409.34
188.63%
568.36
50.52%
568.36
50.52%
97.66
17.32%
97.66
17.32%
Nov-04
5.01
26.35%
2.91
15.30%
3.33
41.67%
5.03
62.92%
131.93
36.05%
96.82
26.45%
65.95
22.36%
31.59
10.71%
15.71
20.40%
29.62
38.46%
218.61
15.01%
33.00
2.27%
17.10
37.18%
12.77
27.76%
55.68
58.61%
49.78
52.40%
14.14
157.11%
17.61
195.68%
17.31
33.29%
12.11
23.28%
11.52
42.66%
17.30
64.06%
3.81
8.85%
2.07
4.82%
4.60
21.92%
2.14
10.21%
24.47
23.08%
12.24
11.55%
88.91
64.89%
81.69
59.63%
6.24
8.43%
3.93
5.31%
22.75
44.61%
18.52
36.31%
46.01
68.67%
62.96
93.98%
8.65
20.11%
3.49
8.12%
2.11
13.18%
4.83
30.16%
23.69
182.20%
23.69
182.20%
32.97
91.58%
43.31
120.31%
23.07
34.43%
16.48
24.59%
31.80
57.82%
44.82
81.50%
17.42
72.59%
23.64
98.48%
0.62
0.86%
11.51
15.99%
2.07
3.34%
11.68
18.84%
29.70
99.01%
38.66
128.86%
41.37
72.58%
39.03
68.47%
5.54
13.51%
0.22
0.53%
26.37
48.83%
22.22
41.15%
6.63
34.88%
4.77
25.11%
3.44
34.38%
5.45
54.54%
20.01
47.65%
29.32
69.80%
5.72
28.59%
3.58
17.88%
5.99
21.39%
11.09
39.60%
3.17
11.32%
7.85
28.02%
42.03
6.41%
146.74
22.37%
354.85
135.96%
447.22
171.35%
181.58
20.56%
76.36
8.65%
Dec-04
1.75
14.58%
3.80
31.66%
5.56
138.97%
3.65
91.17%
144.47
203.48%
101.38
142.79%
5.07
2.49%
36.73
18.01%
23.62
56.23%
10.49
24.99%
102.54
9.87%
125.71
12.10%
29.60
59.21%
33.68
67.36%
28.01
49.14%
33.81
59.31%
10.71
107.07%
6.57
65.65%
11.48
27.34%
17.59
41.87%
1.92
6.19%
4.67
15.05%
7.90
28.22%
0.72
2.58%
2.22
11.11%
5.78
28.89%
51.69
258.46%
37.35
186.77%
6.29
10.85%
16.64
28.68%
12.11
15.14%
25.69
32.11%
11.67
68.66%
5.94
34.93%
27.37
33.35%
5.48
6.68%
19.37
107.63%
11.90
66.10%
0.80
4.22%
4.44
23.38%
0.74
2.66%
0.74
2.66%
1.39
1.93%
15.51
21.55%
39.07
52.10%
46.26
61.68%
1.07
1.50%
13.35
18.80%
21.90
48.66%
8.52
18.93%
53.35
46.39%
65.68
57.11%
21.74
29.78%
31.99
43.82%
0.96
1.88%
9.43
18.50%
13.37
445.58%
10.09
336.46%
2.26
6.11%
9.20
24.89%
34.06
60.82%
38.45
68.65%
9.22
40.09%
11.98
52.07%
3.82
34.75%
0.86
7.80%
7.93
18.03%
2.45
5.58%
0.67
3.71%
4.13
22.97%
7.39
29.58%
0.92
3.66%
16.45
126.57%
10.56
81.26%
90.93
25.91%
2.55
0.73%
295.03
49.73%
117.38
19.79%
72.36
10.32%
198.09
28.26%
Jan-05
6.09
28.99%
9.07
43.19%
12.27
58.44%
14.02
66.75%
180.02
155.19%
120.81
104.15%
151.24
145.43%
100.19
96.34%
21.65
43.30%
7.32
14.64%
540.36
70.27%
278.49
36.21%
7.06
26.14%
0.25
0.91%
43.23
205.88%
30.39
144.70%
13.56
48.43%
16.45
58.74%
1.84
4.58%
6.55
16.34%
12.76
75.09%
6.81
40.07%
1.29
3.15%
9.23
22.52%
3.51
15.25%
7.41
32.20%
45.07
100.15%
27.05
60.12%
48.21
98.39%
28.77
58.71%
18.85
20.94%
33.08
36.75%
13.65
50.60%
5.53
20.48%
23.72
37.65%
6.38
10.12%
5.39
15.39%
2.69
7.68%
0.97
5.39%
4.38
24.32%
32.36
62.23%
32.36
62.23%
15.86
23.33%
26.29
38.66%
2.49
4.97%
8.01
16.02%
40.04
174.07%
27.43
119.26%
4.08
10.20%
4.74
11.84%
10.21
17.92%
3.23
5.67%
11.03
23.98%
0.38
0.82%
7.27
22.03%
0.78
2.37%
33.09
661.74%
25.47
509.39%
4.11
12.08%
3.51
10.33%
24.05
160.35%
16.24
108.28%
1.43
7.92%
4.74
26.33%
4.26
53.29%
1.81
22.64%
23.68
102.97%
14.35
62.38%
6.76
56.32%
3.01
25.05%
16.04
114.61%
10.04
71.69%
6.65
30.24%
0.92
4.19%
263.25
32.10%
374.60
45.68%
69.01
11.08%
179.81
28.86%
152.07
24.81%
0.95
0.15%
Feb-05
6.65
33.24%
4.65
23.23%
3.80
37.97%
2.87
28.67%
12.05
7.35%
38.46
23.45%
99.20
76.90%
133.44
103.44%
22.23
28.50%
13.87
17.78%
249.00
27.18%
423.75
46.26%
2.42
5.37%
3.97
8.82%
29.59
32.88%
20.53
22.81%
11.96
49.82%
10.15
42.29%
9.92
31.00%
16.21
50.64%
21.57
41.49%
17.01
32.71%
15.53
31.69%
10.51
21.45%
11.24
36.25%
8.27
26.69%
88.29
62.62%
80.39
57.01%
50.28
193.39%
61.72
237.40%
19.89
35.51%
31.27
55.84%
17.95
39.02%
13.74
29.88%
36.15
75.31%
48.77
101.61%
9.56
25.16%
5.30
13.93%
19.91
52.41%
17.20
45.27%
12.91
34.89%
12.91
34.89%
33.26
34.65%
23.85
24.85%
36.51
130.39%
46.18
164.94%
5.36
8.65%
15.47
24.95%
53.37
54.46%
46.68
47.63%
51.79
126.32%
65.71
160.26%
7.40
10.13%
2.44
3.35%
24.03
109.21%
30.93
140.60%
15.39
384.73%
18.30
457.44%
5.46
12.69%
0.18
0.41%
32.12
200.78%
39.34
245.89%
17.98
47.32%
14.98
39.41%
14.40
55.38%
12.66
48.69%
1.70
3.62%
5.09
10.84%
1.36
7.98%
4.11
24.18%
3.34
13.93%
7.44
31.02%
6.26
44.72%
9.30
66.43%
389.54
46.54%
322.42
38.52%
92.81
13.89%
6.53
0.98%
223.39
23.39%
113.64
11.90%
Mar-05
0.57
3.16%
4.05
22.53%
5.11
56.73%
2.28
25.38%
67.99
89.46%
39.19
51.56%
6.15
3.94%
26.28
16.85%
1.62
3.17%
8.91
17.47%
35.63
3.60%
226.31
22.88%
7.72
18.38%
14.58
34.71%
12.39
45.88%
4.51
16.70%
0.46
2.18%
4.57
21.75%
4.89
13.60%
3.28
9.12%
30.74
56.93%
35.40
65.55%
11.50
44.23%
4.00
15.39%
4.51
17.35%
8.81
33.88%
15.59
47.25%
5.87
17.80%
29.68
92.76%
17.35
54.20%
52.44
169.18%
35.76
115.34%
6.50
30.95%
1.00
4.76%
14.82
25.59%
0.27
0.47%
6.93
27.74%
0.55
2.19%
0.05
0.25%
3.56
19.80%
24.00
159.99%
24.00
159.99%
18.56
39.48%
5.45
11.59%
6.77
13.54%
4.58
9.17%
1.26
2.81%
10.01
22.25%
12.79
23.25%
21.23
38.60%
7.07
10.60%
7.68
11.52%
28.19
104.39%
17.15
63.51%
5.10
15.00%
2.72
8.00%
5.71
95.22%
3.37
56.17%
60.31
62.82%
67.45
70.26%
2.98
10.87%
3.11
11.31%
5.96
45.84%
2.17
16.67%
12.31
55.96%
14.25
64.77%
17.57
34.46%
24.26
47.56%
13.04
46.56%
16.03
57.25%
4.80
19.19%
8.84
35.35%
8.15
62.66%
3.92
30.13%
190.97
41.88%
61.57
13.50%
191.99
24.21%
312.20
39.37%
364.06
35.24%
497.84
48.19%
Apr-05
8.80
88.05%
8.80
88.05%
4.92
70.34%
4.92
70.34%
77.64
100.83%
77.64
100.83%
18.39
11.28%
18.39
11.28%
0.02
0.03%
0.02
0.03%
116.94
14.33%
116.94
14.33%
1.01
2.60%
1.01
2.60%
25.43
62.01%
25.43
62.01%
5.38
31.64%
5.38
31.64%
17.09
89.96%
17.09
89.96%
3.40
8.08%
3.40
8.08%
6.66
18.00%
6.66
18.00%
9.57
56.31%
9.57
56.31%
78.97
415.61%
78.97
415.61%
6.56
18.23%
6.56
18.23%
0.81
1.19%
0.81
1.19%
5.59
13.01%
5.59
13.01%
62.60
51.31%
62.60
51.31%
1.17
3.45%
1.17
3.45%
7.71
36.73%
7.71
36.73%
26.96
245.05%
26.96
245.05%
18.84
29.90%
18.84
29.90%
47.60
53.49%
47.60
53.49%
81.47
60.35%
81.47
60.35%
25.08
53.36%
25.08
53.36%
5.79
9.33%
5.79
9.33%
40.74
169.76%
40.74
169.76%
12.75
29.84%
12.75
29.84%
17.41
69.65%
17.41
69.65%
13.37
25.22%
13.37
25.22%
29.27
56.29%
29.27
56.29%
2.15
7.96%
2.15
7.96%
4.41
31.52%
4.41
31.52%
31.30
43.47%
31.30
43.47%
11.95
42.69%
11.95
42.69%
6.21
38.78%
6.21
38.78%
1.72
9.03%
1.72
9.03%
162.36
27.66%
162.36
27.66%
429.87
40.29%
429.87
40.29%
756.61
47.92%
756.61
47.92%
May-05
8.38
83.79%
11.14
111.35%
2.63
20.24%
1.08
8.27%
79.40
41.35%
62.51
32.56%
5.83
4.02%
28.46
19.63%
15.98
38.06%
24.68
58.76%
4.26
0.44%
140.10
14.49%
11.09
36.98%
17.26
57.53%
17.41
62.16%
24.22
86.49%
0.63
3.02%
3.88
18.48%
3.02
7.73%
2.38
6.11%
13.85
41.98%
20.88
63.27%
9.25
37.00%
14.39
57.56%
8.45
47.44%
12.40
69.55%
6.02
10.49%
15.52
27.07%
22.83
163.06%
28.35
202.52%
38.39
44.13%
31.10
35.75%
15.32
34.82%
11.02
25.04%
18.46
46.16%
27.23
68.09%
51.26
63.28%
46.80
57.78%
14.02
155.74%
17.47
194.10%
7.29
22.09%
7.29
22.09%
93.73
59.70%
84.24
53.66%
17.04
27.04%
10.14
16.10%
94.98
65.96%
87.63
60.85%
40.07
174.20%
49.53
215.33%
14.13
18.59%
4.85
6.38%
3.63
8.85%
10.32
25.18%
15.87
33.06%
11.05
23.02%
4.27
38.83%
3.26
29.66%
13.80
24.64%
24.27
43.34%
12.75
33.56%
8.97
23.60%
1.44
6.56%
1.64
7.46%
2.35
13.08%
5.41
30.04%
28.76
38.35%
21.82
29.10%
1.57
6.53%
1.80
7.49%
8.68
57.84%
12.23
81.52%
2.94
16.44%
0.70
3.91%
204.35
25.61%
115.30
14.45%
126.82
21.35%
234.94
39.55%
408.17
30.37%
267.79
19.93%
Jun-05
0.34
2.50%
0.34
2.50%
0.94
9.92%
0.94
9.92%
69.53
42.66%
69.53
42.66%
86.51
35.46%
86.51
35.46%
18.75
23.15%
18.75
23.15%
221.72
33.49%
221.72
33.49%
12.00
42.84%
12.00
42.84%
7.06
19.60%
7.06
19.60%
12.85
40.16%
12.85
40.16%
9.85
57.93%
9.85
57.93%
26.30
146.09%
26.30
146.09%
15.73
78.64%
15.73
78.64%
4.18
24.39%
4.18
24.39%
13.07
24.77%
13.07
24.77%
19.28
113.43%
19.28
113.43%
38.07
39.25%
38.07
39.25%
3.36
10.17%
3.36
10.17%
46.73
33.62%
46.73
33.62%
1.99
5.86%
1.99
5.86%
12.95
143.94%
12.95
143.94%
8.15
31.36%
8.15
31.36%
7.13
12.74%
7.13
12.74%
11.94
20.94%
11.94
20.94%
47.01
97.93%
47.01
97.93%
18.58
51.60%
18.58
51.60%
26.98
30.31%
26.98
30.31%
24.01
41.66%
24.01
41.66%
1.20
3.07%
1.20
3.07%
11.52
41.15%
11.52
41.15%
36.07
37.19%
36.07
37.19%
3.47
8.07%
3.47
8.07%
12.02
100.16%
12.02
100.16%
2.99
21.35%
2.99
21.35%
24.05
66.81%
24.05
66.81%
11.42
81.56%
11.42
81.56%
2.56
15.03%
2.56
15.03%
8.94
34.40%
8.94
34.40%
167.17
22.05%
167.17
22.05%
251.63
21.73%
251.63
21.73%
232.35
15.36%
232.35
15.36%
Averages
200
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
6.71
4.51
Holdout
MAPE
37.59%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
6.17
3.40
4.34
50.23%
47.63
96.77
75.57%
51.73
49.71
31.42%
29.14
24.72
44.87%
196.67
193.38
20.21%
21.46
13.74
48.63%
17.64
25.63
78.11%
4.44
8.41
48.98%
18.23
12.92
44.52%
20.19
15.27
52.82%
16.64
10.94
34.96%
6.20
4.58
22.19%
31.89
31.95
84.59%
40.25
28.45
73.33%
23.98
22.28
37.75%
13.01
9.06
27.43%
26.70
29.24
36.39%
8.94
10.54
27.55%
9.40
8.67
60.11%
15.78
21.44
92.02%
19.51
21.75
29.66%
15.05
21.16
46.93%
53.32
34.10
49.80%
17.34
25.25
60.44%
27.12
20.15
30.63%
23.54
19.48
47.78%
15.31
17.93
40.03%
11.54
43.94%
3.49
4.15
46.78%
46.89
86.09
65.33%
48.17
54.41
33.81%
29.41
25.44
45.17%
216.60
185.06
19.83%
18.79
14.96
51.82%
17.65
24.24
72.97%
3.71
8.87
51.20%
19.33
13.25
46.19%
19.16
15.62
53.21%
15.38
9.69
31.54%
5.74
5.23
25.51%
31.85
26.82
71.78%
42.39
26.94
74.12%
25.07
24.49
38.53%
12.01
6.07
16.72%
22.01
26.94
34.90%
9.08
7.57
17.89%
8.59
10.26
72.45%
15.78
21.44
92.02%
18.39
22.85
32.96%
15.27
22.48
51.38%
52.15
35.39
50.43%
17.42
26.15
65.92%
22.38
21.09
32.57%
23.67
18.64
44.62%
13.56
18.29
42.99%
12.83 157.35%
7.69
15.30
26.34%
10.73
16.55
61.53%
5.53
6.61
40.48%
1.88
4.71
29.94%
17.13
16.97
36.14%
4.28
6.26
34.79%
9.21
7.86
35.06%
7.97
8.92
47.65%
185.42
252.98
53.39%
98.35
221.48
34.82%
175.19
212.70
19.56%
9.93
11.51 136.22%
5.91
16.19
39.24
47.79%
26.99%
9.16
15.84
59.18%
5.12
6.52
39.77%
2.59
4.54
27.33%
14.56
16.70
34.34%
3.80
6.77
36.96%
7.68
7.95
34.93%
7.61
7.82
40.37%
205.04
233.75
49.07%
68.28
242.99
40.07%
211.90
32.90
5.32
33.29
200.28
38.46
18.56%
46.76%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
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Error
Percentage
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Error
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Error
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Error
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Error
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Error
Error
Jul-04
9.00
64.28%
9.00
64.28%
2.99
31.91%
2.99
31.91%
15.12
9.22%
15.12
9.22%
13.10
8.08%
13.10
8.08%
66.24
157.71%
66.24
157.71%
378.23
29.46%
378.23
29.46%
1.07
3.52%
1.07
3.52%
2.79
4.72%
2.79
4.72%
1.69
18.78%
1.69
18.78%
12.46
24.91%
12.46
24.91%
26.43
110.12%
26.43
110.12%
2.92
5.41%
2.92
5.41%
0.51
3.30%
0.51
3.30%
13.80
25.20%
13.80
25.20%
23.15
53.83%
23.15
53.83%
35.91
47.88%
35.91
47.88%
4.90
17.24%
4.90
17.24%
4.75
5.06%
4.75
5.06%
2.72
8.23%
2.72
8.23%
7.04
26.07%
7.04
26.07%
12.48
32.01%
12.48
32.01%
21.34
30.92%
21.34
30.92%
34.76
133.70%
34.76
133.70%
28.02
27.20%
28.02
27.20%
28.94
115.77%
28.94
115.77%
30.82
35.83%
30.82
35.83%
10.99
12.78%
10.99
12.78%
4.45
9.27%
4.45
9.27%
0.74
3.20%
0.74
3.20%
12.76
44.02%
12.76
44.02%
9.22
31.53%
9.22
31.53%
8.09
50.70%
8.09
50.70%
1.95
18.34%
1.95
18.34%
36.00
45.57%
36.00
45.57%
4.96
21.55%
4.96
21.55%
6.67
31.77%
6.67
31.77%
2.81
25.57%
2.81
25.57%
598.90
203.71%
598.90
203.71%
164.46
23.43%
164.46
23.43%
248.86
33.40%
248.86
33.40%

Aug-04
7.33
56.39%
6.48
49.85%
8.34
166.78%
10.34
206.79%
169.22
172.67%
209.30
213.57%
32.12
18.25%
63.33
35.98%
54.48
78.96%
73.01
105.81%
438.54
30.62%
289.52
20.22%
27.42
94.54%
35.88
123.72%
8.37
13.72%
0.47
0.77%
18.90
70.00%
17.68
65.49%
26.57
45.81%
21.86
37.68%
13.46
28.64%
22.53
47.94%
1.67
3.09%
6.18
11.45%
4.46
22.28%
2.12
10.62%
7.23
9.77%
2.79
3.77%
14.91
19.36%
5.59
7.26%
54.87
87.10%
72.55
115.16%
0.96
2.82%
4.00
11.75%
16.16
16.00%
3.44
3.41%
2.62
6.23%
9.31
22.16%
9.67
80.54%
12.91
107.62%
60.18
80.25%
60.18
80.25%
15.70
30.20%
25.86
49.73%
20.10
51.53%
28.96
74.26%
17.13
18.23%
5.60
5.96%
32.95
99.84%
42.84
129.81%
18.58
23.82%
9.67
12.39%
5.32
6.82%
5.58
7.16%
65.89
57.80%
58.68
51.47%
5.26
29.21%
8.75
48.60%
5.26
19.47%
1.99
7.39%
8.09
21.28%
3.60
9.47%
12.11
67.29%
16.63
92.38%
2.32
16.58%
0.57
4.07%
7.34
15.30%
15.64
32.59%
3.79
31.61%
6.16
51.35%
20.88
50.92%
17.86
43.56%
14.33
46.23%
11.83
38.16%
46.22
5.52%
178.70
21.35%
119.94
25.57%
208.28
44.41%
298.06
47.69%
436.52
69.84%
Sep-04
0.63
4.50%
0.63
4.50%
3.86
25.72%
3.86
25.72%
109.57
34.13%
109.57
34.13%
11.52
4.28%
11.52
4.28%
6.98
6.12%
6.98
6.12%
5.83
0.51%
5.83
0.51%
27.76
111.05%
27.76
111.05%
42.96
204.55%
42.96
204.55%
15.56
59.84%
15.56
59.84%
6.70
33.50%
6.70
33.50%
6.98
18.38%
6.98
18.38%
22.72
81.16%
22.72
81.16%
0.03
0.21%
0.03
0.21%
31.64
33.31%
31.64
33.31%
3.22
8.69%
3.22
8.69%
41.13
64.27%
41.13
64.27%
3.32
12.78%
3.32
12.78%
64.15
49.73%
64.15
49.73%
6.58
21.23%
6.58
21.23%
20.21
126.31%
20.21
126.31%
2.78
13.26%
2.78
13.26%
8.02
10.42%
8.02
10.42%
15.39
32.74%
15.39
32.74%
17.80
20.94%
17.80
20.94%
3.87
7.90%
3.87
7.90%
0.43
0.64%
0.43
0.64%
21.65
41.63%
21.65
41.63%
5.04
12.60%
5.04
12.60%
4.18
32.18%
4.18
32.18%
26.32
59.82%
26.32
59.82%
6.60
30.00%
6.60
30.00%
13.71
171.33%
13.71
171.33%
0.20
1.39%
0.20
1.39%
17.41
25.60%
17.41
25.60%
3.48
26.78%
3.48
26.78%
18.49
51.37%
18.49
51.37%
25.81
67.92%
25.81
67.92%
79.03
10.41%
79.03
10.41%
20.56
3.08%
20.56
3.08%
88.94
12.10%
88.94
12.10%
Oct-04
6.64
94.91%
6.64
94.91%
2.38
29.81%
2.38
29.81%
6.44
3.24%
6.44
3.24%
48.57
25.43%
48.57
25.43%
32.64
77.72%
32.64
77.72%
192.50
18.21%
192.50
18.21%
31.59
242.97%
31.59
242.97%
46.32
231.62%
46.32
231.62%
10.88
58.49%
10.88
58.49%
4.37
16.17%
4.37
16.17%
8.32
29.71%
8.32
29.71%
22.03
66.75%
22.03
66.75%
4.74
24.97%
4.74
24.97%
4.51
7.16%
4.51
7.16%
17.76
32.28%
17.76
32.28%
26.22
38.55%
26.22
38.55%
0.74
2.55%
0.74
2.55%
39.67
37.28%
39.67
37.28%
3.93
9.83%
3.93
9.83%
17.01
93.11%
17.01
93.11%
8.46
44.54%
8.46
44.54%
0.12
0.17%
0.12
0.17%
14.28
49.23%
14.28
49.23%
29.96
50.78%
29.96
50.78%
47.17
53.00%
47.17
53.00%
29.15
56.05%
29.15
56.05%
43.60
108.99%
43.60
108.99%
1.74
3.86%
1.74
3.86%
3.81
22.40%
3.81
22.40%
10.67
31.38%
10.67
31.38%
10.39
61.14%
10.39
61.14%
4.72
31.44%
4.72
31.44%
2.72
17.01%
2.72
17.01%
27.00
62.80%
27.00
62.80%
0.30
1.51%
0.30
1.51%
13.47
43.45%
13.47
43.45%
20.80
74.29%
20.80
74.29%
308.09
141.98%
308.09
141.98%
403.13
35.83%
403.13
35.83%
286.43
50.79%
286.43
50.79%
Nov-04
5.73
30.14%
3.74
19.66%
0.59
7.43%
0.52
6.46%
223.63
61.10%
202.27
55.27%
62.22
21.09%
27.30
9.26%
9.26
12.03%
0.90
1.17%
52.54
3.61%
157.98
10.85%
8.04
17.48%
2.35
5.11%
26.33
27.72%
16.03
16.88%
7.11
79.00%
9.53
105.85%
12.42
23.89%
6.49
12.48%
16.16
59.86%
22.64
83.83%
14.74
34.27%
23.40
54.42%
4.56
21.70%
2.09
9.96%
40.01
37.74%
30.11
28.41%
82.39
60.14%
74.19
54.16%
5.74
7.76%
17.70
23.92%
17.94
35.17%
12.98
25.44%
5.98
8.92%
16.92
25.26%
3.03
7.05%
2.96
6.89%
9.94
62.10%
13.83
86.42%
41.00
315.40%
41.00
315.40%
28.10
78.05%
37.71
104.76%
29.37
43.83%
23.72
35.40%
43.41
78.93%
58.17
105.77%
14.57
60.70%
20.35
84.80%
13.00
18.05%
25.75
35.76%
23.58
38.03%
36.42
58.74%
54.99
183.31%
67.74
225.80%
36.59
64.18%
33.52
58.81%
14.94
36.45%
11.04
26.92%
22.40
41.49%
17.66
32.71%
0.43
2.28%
3.35
17.63%
4.73
47.30%
6.94
69.40%
23.43
55.78%
33.24
79.15%
3.30
16.52%
0.80
4.00%
0.89
3.16%
5.22
18.64%
12.65
45.16%
10.34
36.94%
64.80
9.88%
172.92
26.36%
377.86
144.77%
473.69
181.49%
87.03
9.86%
32.36
3.67%
Dec-04
1.59
13.21%
1.13
9.43%
7.00
175.07%
4.80
120.06%
162.36
228.67%
115.69
162.94%
74.28
36.42%
18.63
9.14%
46.57
110.87%
28.85
68.70%
304.69
29.33%
36.01
3.47%
18.88
37.77%
25.11
50.21%
9.54
16.74%
19.03
33.39%
11.36
113.55%
7.08
70.84%
17.71
42.17%
22.57
53.74%
11.65
37.59%
3.12
10.07%
16.76
59.87%
7.81
27.90%
4.82
24.08%
7.85
39.26%
62.87
314.37%
46.30
231.50%
13.77
23.75%
22.62
39.00%
9.63
12.04%
23.71
29.63%
13.75
80.88%
7.60
44.71%
11.68
14.23%
7.07
8.61%
18.38
102.13%
11.11
61.71%
2.65
13.93%
1.68
8.86%
13.59
48.53%
13.59
48.53%
0.63
0.88%
13.89
19.30%
36.44
48.59%
44.15
58.87%
28.24
39.78%
8.40
11.82%
0.22
0.49%
8.83
19.61%
33.42
29.06%
49.74
43.25%
1.01
1.39%
15.41
21.11%
18.13
35.55%
4.31
8.44%
14.27
475.56%
10.81
360.44%
0.38
1.03%
7.09
19.18%
30.42
54.32%
35.53
63.45%
9.40
40.89%
12.12
52.71%
4.63
42.09%
1.50
13.67%
29.00
65.91%
14.40
32.73%
3.24
18.00%
6.19
34.40%
8.84
35.35%
2.07
8.28%
12.12
93.23%
7.10
54.58%
456.03
129.92%
294.62
83.94%
96.58
16.28%
41.38
6.98%
114.87
16.39%
48.30
6.89%
Jan-05
Feb-05
11.12
5.88
52.94%
29.42%
13.09
3.77
62.36%
18.83%
11.45
1.45
54.55%
14.50%
13.36
0.17
63.64%
1.67%
110.77
150.97
95.50%
92.06%
65.42
198.22
56.40%
120.86%
159.28
180.06
153.16%
139.58%
106.63
226.42
102.53%
175.52%
12.60
13.25
25.19%
16.99%
0.08
3.54
0.15%
4.54%
477.82
484.74
62.13%
52.92%
228.45
694.85
29.71%
75.86%
7.23
14.28
26.76%
31.72%
11.18
9.67
41.41%
21.48%
11.27
25.94
53.66%
28.83%
4.81
16.34
22.93%
18.15%
7.25
9.09
25.88%
37.89%
11.40
6.86
40.71%
28.58%
21.84
3.26
54.47%
10.19%
25.49
1.05
63.58%
3.28%
19.54
20.27
114.95%
38.98%
12.23
15.51
71.96%
29.83%
2.41
8.98
5.88%
18.34%
10.13
2.98
24.70%
6.09%
6.39
12.26
27.78%
39.55%
9.71
9.45
42.22%
30.48%
31.24
45.45
69.43%
32.23%
16.00
31.12
35.55%
22.07%
1.63
69.60
3.33%
267.71%
11.11
83.95
22.66%
322.87%
23.65
11.21
26.28%
20.01%
36.92
21.29
41.02%
38.02%
3.78
2.99
14.02%
6.49%
2.37
3.47
8.78%
7.54%
32.83
27.50
52.11%
57.29%
13.66
38.83
21.69%
80.89%
3.92
4.26
11.19%
11.21%
3.87
10.60
11.05%
27.89%
1.94
20.48
10.79%
53.90%
2.05
17.86
11.37%
46.99%
20.30
15.50
39.04%
41.89%
20.30
15.50
39.04%
41.89%
7.47
39.01
10.99%
40.64%
7.62
30.46
11.21%
31.73%
20.59
16.82
41.18%
60.05%
26.47
23.54
52.95%
84.06%
61.65
10.04
268.03%
16.19%
44.72
20.84
194.42%
33.62%
32.03
44.54
80.07%
45.45%
17.62
36.52
44.05%
37.26%
12.89
31.89
22.62%
77.79%
1.09
42.83
1.91%
104.46%
9.77
15.92
21.24%
21.81%
1.38
7.36
3.01%
10.08%
27.67
24.18
83.85%
109.90%
15.54
31.10
47.08%
141.38%
12.32
35.74
246.43%
893.59%
8.86
41.70
177.14% 1042.62%
5.25
1.18
15.45%
2.74%
2.60
7.81
7.64%
18.15%
3.79
19.09
25.27%
119.33%
0.03
24.36
0.22%
152.23%
4.44
22.17
24.69%
58.35%
7.15
19.80
39.75%
52.10%
9.26
11.11
115.76%
42.72%
5.81
8.87
72.61%
34.12%
40.65
9.28
176.74%
19.74%
27.92
17.72
121.39%
37.70%
5.37
2.15
44.75%
12.62%
1.90
5.02
15.80%
29.52%
20.29
8.77
144.95%
36.56%
13.43
13.69
95.96%
57.04%
4.28
13.10
19.48%
93.57%
0.97
17.16
4.42%
122.60%
263.23
208.15
32.10%
24.87%
374.58
113.82
45.68%
13.60%
355.01
16.48
56.98%
2.47%
159.41
119.16
25.59%
17.84%
116.61
108.57
19.02%
11.37%
29.31
18.39
4.78%
1.93%
Mar-05
4.90
27.22%
7.52
41.77%
3.35
37.20%
4.48
49.76%
132.26
174.02%
90.61
119.22%
130.81
83.85%
73.45
47.08%
3.98
7.81%
13.39
26.25%
278.77
28.19%
25.22
2.55%
1.42
3.37%
9.53
22.70%
37.36
138.36%
24.49
90.69%
9.51
45.30%
11.81
56.24%
5.22
14.50%
11.38
31.60%
23.30
43.15%
29.44
54.52%
6.65
25.56%
0.12
0.45%
6.37
24.49%
10.29
39.59%
27.17
82.32%
15.13
45.86%
51.89
162.16%
35.11
109.73%
40.39
130.28%
26.11
84.23%
11.14
53.03%
4.71
22.43%
12.67
21.87%
1.45
2.50%
5.43
21.71%
0.66
2.63%
0.42
2.31%
3.93
21.85%
8.04
53.57%
8.04
53.57%
17.48
37.19%
4.59
9.76%
10.04
20.09%
1.97
3.93%
27.25
60.55%
12.80
28.44%
2.84
5.16%
13.27
24.13%
32.17
48.24%
12.40
18.59%
37.27
138.05%
24.42
90.44%
14.02
41.22%
4.41
12.98%
18.54
309.07%
13.64
227.25%
51.05
53.18%
60.04
62.54%
19.93
72.54%
10.45
38.03%
6.65
51.15%
2.72
20.92%
8.26
37.53%
11.01
50.02%
1.11
2.18%
9.31
18.26%
8.80
31.44%
12.64
45.15%
4.93
19.72%
1.06
4.23%
6.26
48.13%
2.41
18.50%
49.27
10.81%
51.78
11.36%
127.26
16.05%
260.40
32.84%
212.27
20.55%
376.42
36.44%
Apr-05
7.45
74.48%
7.45
74.48%
6.25
89.29%
6.25
89.29%
82.67
107.36%
82.67
107.36%
50.28
30.85%
50.28
30.85%
26.13
39.55%
26.13
39.55%
206.48
25.30%
206.48
25.30%
4.61
11.82%
4.61
11.82%
3.10
7.55%
3.10
7.55%
2.32
13.65%
2.32
13.65%
12.47
65.62%
12.47
65.62%
19.79
47.11%
19.79
47.11%
1.98
5.34%
1.98
5.34%
4.90
28.82%
4.90
28.82%
30.91
162.70%
30.91
162.70%
34.32
95.33%
34.32
95.33%
12.01
17.66%
12.01
17.66%
12.84
29.87%
12.84
29.87%
64.77
53.09%
64.77
53.09%
2.12
6.24%
2.12
6.24%
3.88
18.46%
3.88
18.46%
26.66
242.33%
26.66
242.33%
4.34
6.88%
4.34
6.88%
32.61
36.64%
32.61
36.64%
89.55
66.33%
89.55
66.33%
1.24
2.65%
1.24
2.65%
21.54
34.69%
21.54
34.69%
30.11
125.44%
30.11
125.44%
3.50
8.19%
3.50
8.19%
9.93
39.70%
9.93
39.70%
9.54
18.00%
9.54
18.00%
19.34
37.19%
19.34
37.19%
7.57
28.04%
7.57
28.04%
2.78
19.88%
2.78
19.88%
34.64
48.11%
34.64
48.11%
12.18
43.50%
12.18
43.50%
5.75
35.95%
5.75
35.95%
0.03
0.14%
0.03
0.14%
95.65
16.30%
95.65
16.30%
399.48
37.44%
399.48
37.44%
828.79
52.49%
828.79
52.49%
May-05
9.81
98.12%
12.78
127.83%
0.74
5.66%
1.10
8.49%
38.29
19.94%
15.24
7.94%
30.85
21.28%
57.23
39.47%
9.51
22.64%
17.23
41.03%
28.98
3.00%
111.67
11.55%
10.21
34.03%
16.24
54.14%
40.84
145.87%
51.17
182.75%
1.44
6.86%
4.81
22.89%
11.28
28.92%
7.12
18.26%
3.17
9.62%
8.60
26.06%
16.27
65.06%
22.46
89.82%
10.05
56.39%
14.23
79.85%
39.58
69.05%
54.12
94.40%
33.90
242.15%
41.09
293.47%
20.12
23.12%
10.08
11.59%
4.58
10.42%
1.33
3.02%
0.51
1.27%
6.58
16.46%
46.39
57.27%
41.19
50.86%
19.06
211.82%
23.27
258.60%
6.19
18.75%
6.19
18.75%
72.13
45.94%
59.40
37.83%
21.53
34.17%
15.31
24.30%
94.76
65.80%
87.37
60.67%
54.89
238.64%
66.57
289.43%
12.12
15.95%
2.54
3.34%
21.40
52.18%
30.75
75.01%
20.80
43.33%
16.72
34.83%
2.95
26.81%
1.74
15.83%
8.83
15.78%
1.76
3.14%
14.92
39.25%
11.45
30.14%
8.43
38.32%
13.00
59.07%
1.55
8.62%
4.48
24.92%
34.22
45.62%
28.10
37.47%
7.69
32.05%
5.25
21.86%
6.81
45.39%
10.08
67.20%
3.37
18.83%
1.19
6.65%
13.19
1.65%
134.87
16.90%
98.07
16.51%
201.88
33.99%
452.89
33.70%
319.22
23.75%
Jun-05
6.65
49.00%
6.65
49.00%
1.46
15.39%
1.46
15.39%
61.98
38.02%
61.98
38.02%
78.86
32.32%
78.86
32.32%
36.16
44.64%
36.16
44.64%
261.41
39.49%
261.41
39.49%
14.45
51.59%
14.45
51.59%
14.25
39.58%
14.25
39.58%
9.18
28.69%
9.18
28.69%
10.73
63.14%
10.73
63.14%
28.86
160.34%
28.86
160.34%
12.69
63.45%
12.69
63.45%
11.87
69.24%
11.87
69.24%
15.54
29.46%
15.54
29.46%
19.04
111.98%
19.04
111.98%
52.95
54.59%
52.95
54.59%
1.40
4.23%
1.40
4.23%
103.34
74.34%
103.34
74.34%
4.78
14.06%
4.78
14.06%
15.26
169.59%
15.26
169.59%
1.76
6.77%
1.76
6.77%
13.10
23.39%
13.10
23.39%
13.29
23.32%
13.29
23.32%
5.34
11.12%
5.34
11.12%
37.58
104.40%
37.58
104.40%
24.30
27.30%
24.30
27.30%
15.26
26.48%
15.26
26.48%
12.99
33.30%
12.99
33.30%
23.49
83.88%
23.49
83.88%
17.95
18.50%
17.95
18.50%
19.90
46.29%
19.90
46.29%
11.77
98.12%
11.77
98.12%
8.90
63.60%
8.90
63.60%
9.46
26.28%
9.46
26.28%
8.81
62.91%
8.81
62.91%
5.49
32.31%
5.49
32.31%
14.95
57.49%
14.95
57.49%
76.88
10.14%
76.88
10.14%
381.18
32.92%
381.18
32.92%
485.47
32.09%
485.47
32.09%
Averages
201
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
5.82
6.39
Holdout
MAPE
49.55%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
5.51
4.92
4.16
54.44%
48.06
105.27
86.33%
56.49
72.66
47.88%
33.74
26.48
50.02%
215.54
259.21
26.90%
15.02
13.91
55.55%
19.59
22.42
76.08%
5.17
8.69
46.49%
26.38
12.09
35.27%
18.90
16.50
58.20%
17.03
10.82
36.18%
5.87
5.91
28.57%
33.97
29.16
72.73%
54.67
30.46
90.06%
24.06
27.82
44.13%
12.37
6.53
22.46%
29.39
32.00
32.60%
7.04
8.68
23.03%
9.73
10.63
72.41%
17.99
18.08
78.03%
22.74
18.95
26.31%
15.22
22.10
47.92%
68.41
37.76
60.32%
19.07
25.07
67.84%
30.97
21.69
32.50%
36.86
19.66
49.57%
25.73
21.12
51.85%
12.97
51.41%
5.45
4.31
54.08%
44.27
97.71
77.35%
55.47
64.61
43.33%
30.22
25.43
47.78%
257.07
215.68
22.26%
13.31
15.79
61.64%
17.96
20.15
71.13%
5.16
9.07
47.50%
24.16
11.89
35.33%
16.93
17.04
57.49%
19.13
11.28
36.41%
6.01
6.48
31.54%
36.65
24.33
59.95%
54.92
30.93
95.94%
26.54
31.38
47.21%
12.93
4.97
15.86%
29.24
30.39
31.53%
6.32
8.32
20.23%
10.03
11.58
81.27%
17.99
18.08
78.03%
20.66
18.87
28.01%
16.99
22.87
50.78%
68.43
34.05
51.42%
17.69
27.07
76.07%
28.21
20.85
31.18%
35.91
20.24
48.41%
25.10
18.85
49.10%
11.57
13.43 176.00%
13.98 185.52%
9.92
13.68
26.32%
15.54
15.34
48.30%
7.16
9.13
55.22%
1.78
4.87
35.90%
20.28
22.46
49.14%
5.56
5.34
28.60%
10.20
10.11
44.24%
7.42
10.88
49.17%
216.64
188.29
49.77%
127.05
213.33
34.28%
197.26
277.40
28.29%
8.10
14.13
13.25
14.05
44.37%
5.41
10.05
59.52%
2.31
4.64
32.42%
17.20
22.57
47.31%
4.87
5.64
29.86%
9.29
9.44
40.81%
7.93
9.62
42.27%
246.03
206.65
50.14%
97.86
236.08
39.65%
228.09
37.81
6.57
41.98
51.45%
39.00
266.58
41.04
26.39%
27.35%
50.46%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
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Error
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Error
Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
2.19
15.66%
2.19
15.66%
1.41
15.03%
1.41
15.03%
11.73
7.15%
11.73
7.15%
49.63
30.61%
49.63
30.61%
48.21
114.79%
48.21
114.79%
333.35
25.96%
333.35
25.96%
1.83
6.01%
1.83
6.01%
15.89
26.94%
15.89
26.94%
6.96
77.36%
6.96
77.36%
10.46
20.92%
10.46
20.92%
9.97
41.55%
9.97
41.55%
10.24
18.96%
10.24
18.96%
2.60
16.96%
2.60
16.96%
12.74
23.26%
12.74
23.26%
9.23
21.47%
9.23
21.47%
10.46
13.95%
10.46
13.95%
0.26
0.93%
0.26
0.93%
30.44
32.38%
30.44
32.38%
0.53
1.59%
0.53
1.59%
8.30
30.75%
8.30
30.75%
9.07
23.25%
9.07
23.25%
15.61
22.63%
15.61
22.63%
31.34
120.56%
31.34
120.56%
32.42
31.47%
32.42
31.47%
14.17
56.69%
14.17
56.69%
27.15
31.57%
27.15
31.57%
16.17
18.80%
16.17
18.80%
2.77
5.78%
2.77
5.78%
5.43
23.60%
5.43
23.60%
8.17
28.17%
8.17
28.17%
8.76
29.96%
8.76
29.96%
2.47
15.49%
2.47
15.49%
1.03
9.69%
1.03
9.69%
39.70
50.26%
39.70
50.26%
7.09
30.84%
7.09
30.84%
1.06
5.04%
1.06
5.04%
14.51
131.95%
14.51
131.95%
220.60
75.03%
220.60
75.03%
238.44
33.97%
238.44
33.97%
134.76
18.09%
134.76
18.09%
Alpha Fitted
Aug-04
1.74
13.38%
0.05
0.38%
6.29
125.74%
7.98
159.60%
102.17
104.25%
132.19
134.89%
43.40
24.66%
23.51
13.36%
26.65
38.62%
40.99
59.41%
470.69
32.87%
326.49
22.80%
10.42
35.93%
16.33
56.31%
17.87
29.30%
11.40
18.69%
12.55
46.48%
10.38
38.45%
1.10
1.90%
7.43
12.81%
8.90
18.94%
3.19
6.79%
8.75
16.20%
1.96
3.64%
2.39
11.96%
0.25
1.24%
6.16
8.32%
4.02
5.43%
26.25
34.09%
18.63
24.20%
26.95
42.78%
40.45
64.20%
4.53
13.34%
0.12
0.34%
17.43
17.25%
35.19
34.84%
6.84
16.29%
1.57
3.74%
7.40
61.70%
10.31
85.96%
48.35
64.47%
48.35
64.47%
6.09
11.72%
14.81
28.48%
18.17
46.59%
26.75
68.58%
20.78
22.11%
9.80
10.42%
11.49
34.82%
18.16
55.05%
17.84
22.87%
8.81
11.30%
7.08
9.08%
3.56
4.56%
63.41
55.62%
55.82
48.96%
0.06
0.36%
2.77
15.41%
4.94
18.29%
1.63
6.04%
2.03
5.34%
3.37
8.86%
2.78
15.43%
5.89
32.75%
4.28
30.57%
2.82
20.16%
4.46
9.30%
2.07
4.31%
3.41
28.38%
5.72
47.63%
18.42
44.92%
15.03
36.66%
6.27
20.24%
2.57
8.27%
284.66
34.01%
201.81
24.11%
14.59
3.11%
87.13
18.58%
4.68
0.75%
99.13
15.86%
Sep-04
1.33
9.49%
1.33
9.49%
4.02
26.77%
4.02
26.77%
129.34
40.29%
129.34
40.29%
115.18
42.82%
115.18
42.82%
20.46
17.95%
20.46
17.95%
152.35
13.28%
152.35
13.28%
15.05
60.19%
15.05
60.19%
25.91
123.40%
25.91
123.40%
11.87
45.65%
11.87
45.65%
33.34
166.71%
33.34
166.71%
2.01
5.29%
2.01
5.29%
18.00
64.27%
18.00
64.27%
2.17
14.48%
2.17
14.48%
27.43
28.88%
27.43
28.88%
7.32
19.78%
7.32
19.78%
25.53
39.89%
25.53
39.89%
3.24
12.47%
3.24
12.47%
19.07
14.79%
19.07
14.79%
3.06
9.88%
3.06
9.88%
7.66
47.89%
7.66
47.89%
5.65
26.88%
5.65
26.88%
17.91
23.26%
17.91
23.26%
11.22
23.87%
11.22
23.87%
12.27
14.44%
12.27
14.44%
5.24
10.69%
5.24
10.69%
5.00
7.35%
5.00
7.35%
20.63
39.67%
20.63
39.67%
10.41
26.02%
10.41
26.02%
4.00
30.80%
4.00
30.80%
22.93
52.10%
22.93
52.10%
13.30
60.45%
13.30
60.45%
11.60
145.04%
11.60
145.04%
3.41
24.35%
3.41
24.35%
24.06
35.38%
24.06
35.38%
2.55
19.61%
2.55
19.61%
14.74
40.94%
14.74
40.94%
15.78
41.54%
15.78
41.54%
222.87
29.36%
222.87
29.36%
158.47
23.76%
158.47
23.76%
99.23
13.50%
99.23
13.50%
Oct-04
5.61
80.19%
5.61
80.19%
2.91
36.41%
2.91
36.41%
9.76
4.90%
9.76
4.90%
31.05
16.26%
31.05
16.26%
44.04
104.85%
44.04
104.85%
29.44
2.78%
29.44
2.78%
26.18
201.37%
26.18
201.37%
29.02
145.10%
29.02
145.10%
5.95
31.99%
5.95
31.99%
25.05
92.79%
25.05
92.79%
6.66
23.77%
6.66
23.77%
15.17
45.97%
15.17
45.97%
2.33
12.26%
2.33
12.26%
3.62
5.74%
3.62
5.74%
13.37
24.31%
13.37
24.31%
20.66
30.39%
20.66
30.39%
0.84
2.91%
0.84
2.91%
0.35
0.33%
0.35
0.33%
6.02
15.06%
6.02
15.06%
6.43
35.21%
6.43
35.21%
9.45
49.75%
9.45
49.75%
11.39
15.82%
11.39
15.82%
24.45
84.31%
24.45
84.31%
20.91
35.44%
20.91
35.44%
46.39
52.12%
46.39
52.12%
15.40
29.62%
15.40
29.62%
36.72
91.80%
36.72
91.80%
6.17
13.69%
6.17
13.69%
1.14
6.68%
1.14
6.68%
11.57
34.04%
11.57
34.04%
17.57
103.35%
17.57
103.35%
4.57
30.44%
4.57
30.44%
5.13
32.04%
5.13
32.04%
7.46
17.35%
7.46
17.35%
3.41
17.07%
3.41
17.07%
10.48
33.81%
10.48
33.81%
8.67
30.95%
8.67
30.95%
301.23
138.82%
301.23
138.82%
583.16
51.84%
583.16
51.84%
104.02
18.44%
104.02
18.44%
Nov-04
6.59
34.66%
4.72
24.86%
2.18
27.30%
3.71
46.40%
188.93
51.62%
162.37
44.36%
127.44
43.20%
102.31
34.68%
6.23
8.09%
18.71
24.30%
375.42
25.78%
213.33
14.65%
7.85
17.06%
2.13
4.62%
43.76
46.06%
36.07
37.97%
5.01
55.68%
7.11
79.03%
0.09
0.18%
7.91
15.21%
9.89
36.63%
15.42
57.12%
7.14
16.61%
14.66
34.10%
4.08
19.45%
1.55
7.36%
37.37
35.26%
27.08
25.54%
92.67
67.64%
86.02
62.79%
12.04
16.27%
24.95
33.71%
19.78
38.78%
15.10
29.60%
36.63
54.67%
52.18
77.87%
7.76
18.06%
2.48
5.76%
7.37
46.06%
10.88
67.97%
22.53
173.30%
22.53
173.30%
23.44
65.11%
32.36
89.88%
15.95
23.81%
8.30
12.38%
30.08
54.69%
42.84
77.89%
18.74
78.08%
25.15
104.79%
1.80
2.50%
8.73
12.13%
17.23
27.78%
29.11
46.95%
31.97
106.58%
41.27
137.57%
38.58
67.69%
35.82
62.85%
17.64
43.02%
14.14
34.48%
18.79
34.79%
13.50
25.01%
0.83
4.37%
3.80
20.02%
1.64
16.37%
3.38
33.83%
9.74
23.18%
17.50
41.66%
4.12
20.60%
1.74
8.69%
5.14
18.35%
1.71
6.10%
8.27
29.54%
5.31
18.97%
72.70
11.08%
14.79
2.26%
276.18
105.82%
356.76
136.69%
203.80
23.08%
101.92
11.54%
Dec-04
0.39
3.22%
2.09
17.42%
7.02
175.51%
4.82
120.40%
128.48
180.96%
88.58
124.77%
15.52
7.61%
53.21
26.09%
45.44
108.19%
27.95
66.55%
47.43
4.57%
169.80
16.35%
13.40
26.80%
20.72
41.44%
9.75
17.11%
19.20
33.68%
5.12
51.23%
2.10
20.98%
4.42
10.53%
4.86
11.57%
6.57
21.20%
0.94
3.04%
20.01
71.47%
10.41
37.18%
3.61
18.04%
6.89
34.43%
53.62
268.08%
38.89
194.46%
17.18
29.62%
25.34
43.70%
3.77
4.72%
12.98
16.23%
14.26
83.89%
8.01
47.11%
23.56
28.70%
2.43
2.96%
16.73
92.96%
9.79
54.37%
3.75
19.74%
0.80
4.21%
5.87
20.97%
5.87
20.97%
9.87
13.71%
22.30
30.97%
24.95
33.26%
34.96
46.61%
17.40
24.51%
0.28
0.39%
0.23
0.52%
8.81
19.58%
43.76
38.05%
58.01
50.44%
4.56
6.25%
10.95
15.00%
9.61
18.84%
2.51
4.93%
14.91
497.11%
11.33
377.69%
10.21
27.60%
15.56
42.08%
22.61
40.37%
29.29
52.29%
4.44
19.32%
8.15
35.45%
1.33
12.10%
1.13
10.32%
11.89
27.02%
0.71
1.61%
2.62
14.53%
5.69
31.62%
0.73
2.93%
5.59
22.35%
8.17
62.82%
3.93
30.26%
279.81
79.72%
153.65
43.77%
30.62
5.16%
143.15
24.13%
4.68
0.67%
136.45
19.47%
Jan-05
9.69
46.13%
11.95
56.91%
10.27
48.91%
12.42
59.13%
85.61
73.80%
45.28
39.04%
91.70
88.17%
52.56
50.54%
30.46
60.92%
14.37
28.73%
308.76
40.15%
93.21
12.12%
6.37
23.58%
0.31
1.14%
22.43
106.83%
13.75
65.46%
12.96
46.30%
15.97
57.04%
2.21
5.52%
6.25
15.58%
19.68
115.77%
12.34
72.62%
5.79
14.13%
3.56
8.69%
6.48
28.18%
9.79
42.54%
28.34
62.99%
13.68
30.39%
8.64
17.63%
16.71
34.10%
7.72
8.58%
24.18
26.86%
4.76
17.65%
1.59
5.88%
41.11
65.25%
20.29
32.20%
0.62
1.78%
6.50
18.57%
4.52
25.09%
0.01
0.07%
19.95
38.37%
19.95
38.37%
4.16
6.12%
16.93
24.89%
3.56
7.12%
12.85
25.69%
64.47
280.32%
46.98
204.26%
13.52
33.79%
2.81
7.03%
12.76
22.38%
1.20
2.10%
28.19
61.29%
13.35
29.03%
27.09
82.09%
15.07
45.67%
13.05
261.01%
9.44
188.81%
5.62
16.53%
11.30
33.22%
15.97
106.48%
9.78
65.18%
0.44
2.43%
3.25
18.05%
5.26
65.77%
2.61
32.62%
32.89
143.01%
21.71
94.41%
3.99
33.22%
0.79
6.58%
10.81
77.21%
5.85
41.77%
1.00
4.54%
5.20
23.63%
227.69
27.77%
346.15
42.21%
31.76
5.10%
99.20
15.92%
90.86
14.82%
49.91
8.14%
Feb-05
7.86
39.30%
6.04
30.19%
0.46
4.61%
2.03
20.30%
64.66
39.43%
98.96
60.34%
88.89
68.91%
121.57
94.24%
1.34
1.72%
13.24
16.98%
214.22
23.39%
383.75
41.89%
9.63
21.40%
4.33
9.61%
38.77
43.08%
31.09
34.54%
10.48
43.65%
8.45
35.19%
10.32
32.24%
16.66
52.07%
16.29
31.33%
10.94
21.04%
1.83
3.74%
5.24
10.70%
14.06
45.35%
11.52
37.16%
61.45
43.58%
49.52
35.12%
26.34
101.30%
34.19
131.49%
25.80
46.07%
38.07
67.98%
10.53
22.89%
5.21
11.32%
48.80
101.67%
63.32
131.92%
1.11
2.92%
4.42
11.64%
16.05
42.23%
12.75
33.56%
7.54
20.37%
7.54
20.37%
36.02
37.52%
27.02
28.15%
20.86
74.52%
28.19
100.69%
23.96
38.65%
36.86
59.44%
46.72
47.68%
39.03
39.83%
30.39
74.11%
41.09
100.23%
1.38
1.89%
12.54
17.17%
35.31
160.50%
43.91
199.58%
20.19
504.86%
23.82
595.59%
12.10
28.14%
7.47
17.36%
18.33
114.53%
23.47
146.71%
19.08
50.20%
16.24
42.73%
12.80
49.22%
10.82
41.60%
8.71
18.54%
17.07
36.32%
0.46
2.71%
2.02
11.88%
0.86
3.59%
4.59
19.13%
6.87
49.06%
10.00
71.42%
214.23
25.60%
120.82
14.43%
59.15
8.85%
32.18
4.82%
205.11
21.48%
92.63
9.70%
Mar-05
6.15
34.17%
8.52
47.33%
0.61
6.77%
1.31
14.58%
132.96
174.94%
91.17
119.96%
68.37
43.82%
23.49
15.06%
22.06
43.26%
7.45
14.61%
126.47
12.79%
96.63
9.77%
4.20
9.99%
11.76
27.99%
25.64
94.97%
15.11
55.98%
8.70
41.42%
11.16
53.14%
4.85
13.47%
3.32
9.23%
18.59
34.43%
25.67
47.54%
19.24
73.99%
10.19
39.19%
8.82
33.92%
12.26
47.14%
39.25
118.94%
24.80
75.15%
19.44
60.76%
9.16
28.61%
51.25
165.33%
34.80
112.27%
12.75
60.73%
6.00
28.58%
34.49
59.54%
16.00
27.63%
9.28
37.13%
2.43
9.71%
3.88
21.57%
0.49
2.74%
14.36
95.70%
14.36
95.70%
14.86
31.62%
2.49
5.29%
2.30
4.60%
8.16
16.32%
41.93
93.17%
24.54
54.54%
2.65
4.81%
13.12
23.85%
12.64
18.95%
3.23
4.84%
49.17
182.12%
33.94
125.70%
23.90
70.29%
12.32
36.23%
15.68
261.35%
11.34
189.08%
63.41
66.06%
69.93
72.84%
10.23
37.22%
2.69
9.78%
6.96
53.57%
2.97
22.85%
8.71
39.58%
11.37
51.66%
4.82
9.45%
6.35
12.44%
11.26
40.20%
14.60
52.16%
0.53
2.13%
5.43
21.71%
5.51
42.39%
1.81
13.91%
148.35
32.53%
27.48
6.03%
176.36
22.24%
299.69
37.79%
268.72
26.01%
421.58
40.81%
Apr-05
2.94
29.44%
2.94
29.44%
4.39
62.70%
4.39
62.70%
120.63
156.67%
120.63
156.67%
52.09
31.96%
52.09
31.96%
2.44
3.70%
2.44
3.70%
245.38
30.07%
245.38
30.07%
2.44
6.25%
2.44
6.25%
7.50
18.30%
7.50
18.30%
3.10
18.21%
3.10
18.21%
20.24
106.53%
20.24
106.53%
8.98
21.38%
8.98
21.38%
8.41
22.73%
8.41
22.73%
0.85
5.03%
0.85
5.03%
50.31
264.79%
50.31
264.79%
13.30
36.95%
13.30
36.95%
16.16
23.77%
16.16
23.77%
9.33
21.71%
9.33
21.71%
36.44
29.87%
36.44
29.87%
0.45
1.33%
0.45
1.33%
0.66
3.15%
0.66
3.15%
21.87
198.80%
21.87
198.80%
0.02
0.03%
0.02
0.03%
37.31
41.93%
37.31
41.93%
54.47
40.35%
54.47
40.35%
5.55
11.80%
5.55
11.80%
15.74
25.35%
15.74
25.35%
49.71
207.14%
49.71
207.14%
12.97
30.35%
12.97
30.35%
5.33
21.32%
5.33
21.32%
19.33
36.47%
19.33
36.47%
17.39
33.44%
17.39
33.44%
6.84
25.35%
6.84
25.35%
1.08
7.74%
1.08
7.74%
19.28
26.78%
19.28
26.78%
11.97
42.75%
11.97
42.75%
6.45
40.34%
6.45
40.34%
1.27
6.70%
1.27
6.70%
70.73
12.05%
70.73
12.05%
438.92
41.14%
438.92
41.14%
815.18
51.63%
815.18
51.63%
May-05
3.80
38.00%
5.87
58.69%
1.64
12.62%
0.06
0.49%
2.45
1.28%
31.62
16.47%
65.21
44.98%
96.75
66.72%
26.61
63.37%
36.91
87.87%
67.39
6.97%
222.49
23.02%
8.13
27.11%
13.85
46.18%
27.10
96.77%
35.36
126.29%
6.22
29.61%
4.00
19.05%
2.42
6.21%
3.07
7.86%
3.10
9.39%
8.51
25.79%
21.76
87.03%
28.77
115.08%
1.86
10.42%
4.81
26.98%
23.72
41.38%
35.88
62.59%
29.91
213.64%
36.50
260.69%
6.23
7.16%
5.89
6.77%
7.57
17.20%
2.10
4.78%
37.08
92.69%
48.64
121.59%
45.94
56.72%
40.68
50.23%
15.46
171.81%
19.13
212.58%
0.82
2.49%
0.82
2.49%
88.78
56.55%
78.55
50.03%
15.18
24.10%
8.01
12.71%
63.51
44.11%
51.44
35.72%
38.43
167.07%
47.64
207.13%
1.96
2.58%
9.15
12.03%
34.49
84.13%
45.82
111.75%
4.01
8.35%
11.81
24.60%
6.67
60.65%
9.32
84.74%
20.00
35.71%
14.60
26.07%
6.07
15.98%
1.28
3.38%
1.33
6.06%
4.83
21.97%
2.73
15.14%
0.43
2.42%
21.53
28.71%
13.51
18.02%
7.87
32.80%
5.45
22.72%
7.13
47.52%
10.45
69.64%
2.06
11.50%
0.32
1.77%
89.22
11.18%
17.10
2.14%
51.13
8.61%
147.90
24.90%
529.48
39.40%
407.31
30.31%
Jun-05
0.72
5.31%
0.72
5.31%
1.66
17.46%
1.66
17.46%
15.26
9.36%
15.26
9.36%
34.32
14.07%
34.32
14.07%
16.35
20.18%
16.35
20.18%
358.11
54.09%
358.11
54.09%
11.11
39.69%
11.11
39.69%
15.64
43.44%
15.64
43.44%
16.86
52.67%
16.86
52.67%
17.77
104.54%
17.77
104.54%
21.21
117.84%
21.21
117.84%
24.51
122.57%
24.51
122.57%
3.45
20.14%
3.45
20.14%
22.78
43.20%
22.78
43.20%
22.91
134.77%
22.91
134.77%
23.10
23.82%
23.10
23.82%
2.19
6.63%
2.19
6.63%
68.15
49.03%
68.15
49.03%
0.35
1.02%
0.35
1.02%
15.01
166.78%
15.01
166.78%
5.38
20.68%
5.38
20.68%
9.63
17.19%
9.63
17.19%
9.41
16.50%
9.41
16.50%
29.84
62.17%
29.84
62.17%
27.04
75.11%
27.04
75.11%
14.60
16.41%
14.60
16.41%
12.53
21.75%
12.53
21.75%
11.41
29.25%
11.41
29.25%
11.86
42.37%
11.86
42.37%
50.90
52.47%
50.90
52.47%
11.80
27.45%
11.80
27.45%
10.47
87.25%
10.47
87.25%
2.82
20.17%
2.82
20.17%
18.72
52.01%
18.72
52.01%
3.87
27.67%
3.87
27.67%
4.99
29.34%
4.99
29.34%
12.04
46.29%
12.04
46.29%
60.28
7.95%
60.28
7.95%
478.63
41.33%
478.63
41.33%
640.73
42.35%
640.73
42.35%
Averages
202
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
6.03
4.08
Holdout
MAPE
29.08%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
5.59
3.55
3.57
46.65%
39.78
82.66
70.39%
54.25
65.23
38.09%
25.99
24.19
48.80%
222.60
227.42
22.73%
15.57
9.72
39.61%
15.99
23.27
65.94%
6.74
8.81
45.02%
25.06
11.02
46.79%
15.98
10.99
39.79%
13.50
13.40
46.47%
5.13
4.39
19.68%
24.63
30.57
78.70%
43.83
23.88
63.50%
22.07
19.14
35.23%
9.23
7.50
24.93%
30.65
32.79
45.51%
7.08
8.23
21.23%
8.14
8.04
56.00%
14.23
14.24
61.25%
18.04
19.82
25.11%
13.69
17.89
41.76%
44.61
34.34
61.79%
20.27
19.18
47.77%
22.89
16.59
24.31%
24.63
23.16
62.64%
17.46
19.92
50.61%
9.82
11.41 148.15%
7.07
20.57
36.55%
11.43
13.57
50.78%
6.06
5.98
37.91%
2.51
4.18
26.90%
15.84
16.94
36.75%
4.71
5.22
25.87%
10.95
6.78
28.84%
10.97
7.54
39.79%
256.05
182.70
40.43%
112.29
211.45
29.24%
215.54
258.44
22.52%
38.22
44.58%
31.32%
3.79
3.89
48.27%
40.32
78.07
63.18%
54.56
62.97
36.37%
22.73
24.26
46.66%
218.55
218.69
22.23%
13.03
10.50
41.73%
14.85
21.33
60.81%
6.38
8.66
44.06%
22.72
13.03
51.32%
14.56
10.49
36.98%
14.46
12.59
43.59%
5.15
4.87
22.14%
26.75
25.90
66.21%
41.70
24.39
68.57%
21.73
23.10
38.32%
9.56
4.50
14.36%
31.56
32.71
46.28%
7.29
6.52
15.24%
8.15
7.70
57.57%
14.23
14.24
61.25%
15.53
20.75
28.05%
12.20
20.08
47.51%
45.92
30.22
52.21%
20.45
21.09
55.31%
21.68
17.34
25.28%
25.81
23.75
60.78%
16.07
18.87
50.22%
8.64
10.97 136.58%
6.30
20.63
10.58
12.68
47.16%
5.40
6.76
41.45%
2.89
3.84
23.88%
15.99
15.68
32.55%
36.28%
3.92
5.41
26.60%
10.04
7.20
30.57%
10.91
6.78
35.47%
265.88
146.46
33.18%
78.88
255.30
37.90%
232.12
35.87
4.34
35.17
258.57
37.88
23.32%
43.52%
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
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Percentage
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Percentage
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Percentage
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Percentage
Error
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Error
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Error
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Error
Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
8.64
61.74%
8.64
61.74%
0.09
1.00%
0.09
1.00%
29.57
18.03%
29.57
18.03%
41.01
25.29%
41.01
25.29%
60.10
143.10%
60.10
143.10%
3.05
0.24%
3.05
0.24%
1.00
3.28%
1.00
3.28%
51.84
87.86%
51.84
87.86%
10.60
117.74%
10.60
117.74%
44.25
88.50%
44.25
88.50%
93.00
387.48%
93.00
387.48%
32.59
60.35%
32.59
60.35%
1.23
8.00%
1.23
8.00%
29.77
54.35%
29.77
54.35%
39.09
90.90%
39.09
90.90%
21.34
28.46%
21.34
28.46%
9.65
33.94%
9.65
33.94%
3.89
4.14%
3.89
4.14%
2.53
7.64%
2.53
7.64%
13.90
51.48%
13.90
51.48%
13.10
33.60%
13.10
33.60%
1.76
2.55%
1.76
2.55%
26.70
102.68%
26.70
102.68%
61.02
59.24%
61.02
59.24%
15.54
62.15%
15.54
62.15%
31.99
37.20%
31.99
37.20%
22.86
26.58%
22.86
26.58%
3.21
6.68%
3.21
6.68%
33.95
147.62%
33.95
147.62%
7.98
27.52%
7.98
27.52%
18.45
63.07%
18.45
63.07%
7.83
49.03%
7.83
49.03%
1.71
16.09%
1.71
16.09%
12.69
16.07%
12.69
16.07%
15.65
68.02%
15.65
68.02%
5.14
24.49%
5.14
24.49%
5.56
50.55%
5.56
50.55%
578.66
196.82%
578.66
196.82%
17.30
2.46%
17.30
2.46%
454.83
61.05%
454.83
61.05%
Optimised Alpha
Aug-04
5.54
42.60%
4.42
33.99%
7.18
143.65%
9.01
180.20%
373.86
381.49%
444.64
453.71%
122.87
69.81%
167.70
95.28%
51.15
74.13%
69.17
100.25%
266.22
18.59%
91.36
6.38%
72.00
248.26%
87.15
300.50%
7.97
13.06%
0.01
0.02%
14.46
53.56%
12.58
46.59%
31.32
54.00%
27.32
47.11%
21.93
46.66%
32.27
68.66%
17.85
33.06%
12.43
23.01%
5.56
27.82%
3.40
17.00%
27.61
37.31%
20.65
27.91%
15.06
19.56%
5.77
7.49%
34.87
55.35%
49.55
78.65%
9.91
29.13%
6.29
18.51%
6.99
6.92%
7.11
7.04%
15.01
35.73%
23.56
56.09%
5.79
48.28%
8.46
70.52%
65.95
87.94%
64.60
86.13%
58.62
112.73%
75.21
144.64%
13.57
34.79%
21.45
55.01%
30.12
32.05%
20.54
21.85%
47.58
144.19%
59.67
180.82%
18.93
24.27%
10.07
12.91%
15.50
19.88%
6.13
7.86%
68.74
60.30%
61.95
54.34%
7.53
41.84%
11.36
63.12%
7.90
29.25%
13.13
48.64%
14.41
37.91%
10.87
28.60%
18.01
100.05%
23.41
130.06%
4.61
32.90%
3.20
22.83%
14.08
29.33%
23.39
48.73%
2.46
20.51%
4.63
38.58%
21.01
51.24%
18.01
43.93%
6.06
19.56%
2.32
7.49%
122.20
14.60%
14.98
1.79%
167.94
35.81%
263.48
56.18%
173.99
27.84%
293.84
47.01%
Sep-04
16.19
115.62%
16.19
115.62%
5.57
37.16%
5.57
37.16%
222.52
69.32%
222.52
69.32%
28.05
10.43%
28.05
10.43%
21.56
18.91%
21.56
18.91%
147.24
12.84%
147.24
12.84%
27.50
110.00%
27.50
110.00%
36.58
174.20%
36.58
174.20%
11.94
45.93%
11.94
45.93%
8.74
43.68%
8.74
43.68%
34.04
89.57%
34.04
89.57%
12.37
44.17%
12.37
44.17%
0.89
5.96%
0.89
5.96%
41.72
43.92%
41.72
43.92%
37.00
100.00%
37.00
100.00%
20.23
31.61%
20.23
31.61%
1.86
7.14%
1.86
7.14%
79.09
61.31%
79.09
61.31%
1.69
5.44%
1.69
5.44%
47.85
299.05%
47.85
299.05%
2.12
10.10%
2.12
10.10%
4.99
6.48%
4.99
6.48%
8.17
17.38%
8.17
17.38%
26.18
30.80%
26.18
30.80%
18.43
37.61%
18.43
37.61%
13.05
19.20%
13.05
19.20%
17.19
33.06%
17.19
33.06%
1.22
3.06%
1.22
3.06%
10.76
82.75%
10.76
82.75%
30.51
69.35%
30.51
69.35%
5.30
24.09%
5.30
24.09%
0.13
1.67%
0.13
1.67%
1.63
11.62%
1.63
11.62%
25.82
37.97%
25.82
37.97%
2.43
18.66%
2.43
18.66%
16.07
44.65%
16.07
44.65%
16.42
43.21%
16.42
43.21%
700.90
92.35%
700.90
92.35%
20.22
3.03%
20.22
3.03%
236.58
32.19%
236.58
32.19%
Oct-04
11.61
165.91%
11.61
165.91%
1.16
14.49%
1.16
14.49%
55.10
27.69%
55.10
27.69%
45.12
23.62%
45.12
23.62%
31.08
74.00%
31.08
74.00%
265.41
25.10%
265.41
25.10%
9.37
72.06%
9.37
72.06%
37.72
188.61%
37.72
188.61%
9.29
49.96%
9.29
49.96%
22.24
82.38%
22.24
82.38%
6.91
24.67%
6.91
24.67%
24.71
74.87%
24.71
74.87%
5.36
28.20%
5.36
28.20%
10.51
16.68%
10.51
16.68%
26.33
47.88%
26.33
47.88%
1.58
2.32%
1.58
2.32%
2.81
9.68%
2.81
9.68%
22.45
21.10%
22.45
21.10%
8.65
21.62%
8.65
21.62%
16.45
90.07%
16.45
90.07%
25.54
134.41%
25.54
134.41%
4.45
6.18%
4.45
6.18%
14.59
50.31%
14.59
50.31%
58.75
99.58%
58.75
99.58%
73.27
82.33%
73.27
82.33%
45.85
88.18%
45.85
88.18%
60.79
151.98%
60.79
151.98%
0.04
0.09%
0.04
0.09%
3.85
22.67%
3.85
22.67%
12.03
35.37%
12.03
35.37%
10.61
62.43%
10.61
62.43%
2.08
13.89%
2.08
13.89%
4.12
25.72%
4.12
25.72%
34.54
80.32%
34.54
80.32%
1.37
6.83%
1.37
6.83%
11.26
36.31%
11.26
36.31%
19.40
69.27%
19.40
69.27%
101.10
46.59%
101.10
46.59%
400.48
35.60%
400.48
35.60%
49.03
8.69%
49.03
8.69%
Nov-04
5.81
30.56%
3.83
20.15%
6.30
78.75%
6.05
75.57%
291.17
79.55%
279.95
76.49%
125.61
42.58%
100.20
33.97%
26.15
33.96%
18.52
24.05%
149.82
10.29%
390.70
26.83%
20.59
44.75%
16.77
36.46%
37.32
39.28%
28.67
30.18%
20.48
227.54%
24.90
276.67%
13.97
26.87%
23.87
45.90%
6.35
23.53%
11.36
42.06%
12.32
28.64%
20.61
47.94%
1.33
6.34%
4.68
22.29%
21.59
20.37%
8.93
8.42%
50.20
36.64%
37.18
27.14%
23.61
31.91%
16.05
21.69%
13.77
27.01%
8.19
16.06%
37.75
56.34%
53.46
79.79%
6.42
14.93%
0.93
2.17%
11.94
74.66%
11.34
70.85%
97.27
748.27%
113.82
875.51%
4.80
13.34%
10.92
30.34%
38.48
57.44%
34.20
51.05%
44.01
80.02%
58.86
107.03%
1.73
7.20%
5.59
23.28%
9.29
12.90%
21.48
29.83%
19.95
32.19%
32.25
52.01%
144.66
482.21%
170.86
569.55%
42.64
74.81%
40.49
71.03%
14.52
35.41%
10.55
25.72%
18.12
33.56%
12.74
23.59%
4.84
25.45%
2.71
14.27%
4.01
40.12%
6.11
61.14%
19.97
47.55%
29.27
69.68%
5.47
27.37%
3.30
16.48%
20.64
73.70%
27.93
99.75%
0.42
1.50%
3.72
13.28%
295.48
45.04%
438.21
66.80%
217.94
83.50%
289.78
111.03%
276.95
31.36%
186.04
21.07%
Dec-04
1.16
9.64%
1.47
12.29%
13.15
328.75%
9.72
243.00%
241.77
340.52%
179.22
252.42%
80.64
39.54%
23.72
11.63%
82.83
197.23%
57.87
137.78%
121.98
11.74%
110.16
10.61%
29.13
58.26%
33.30
66.61%
57.00
100.00%
57.00
100.00%
16.78
167.84%
11.43
114.27%
23.42
55.75%
27.13
64.60%
4.60
14.84%
2.52
8.13%
4.27
15.26%
9.02
32.21%
2.93
14.64%
6.34
31.71%
96.31
481.54%
73.05
365.23%
0.99
1.71%
10.81
18.63%
19.89
24.86%
31.91
39.89%
12.00
70.57%
6.20
36.45%
71.73
87.39%
40.97
49.91%
16.77
93.17%
9.82
54.54%
5.41
28.49%
8.13
42.79%
11.72
41.85%
14.98
53.48%
1.56
2.17%
15.65
21.73%
37.06
49.41%
44.65
59.53%
23.88
33.63%
4.90
6.90%
1.70
3.77%
7.64
16.98%
52.14
45.33%
64.71
56.27%
35.99
49.30%
43.39
59.44%
18.35
35.97%
24.88
48.78%
10.66
355.23%
7.93
264.18%
20.19
54.60%
8.76
23.68%
30.54
54.53%
35.63
63.63%
13.23
57.51%
15.18
66.00%
3.67
33.33%
0.73
6.66%
17.99
40.90%
5.60
12.72%
6.31
35.03%
8.64
48.02%
14.45
57.79%
6.56
26.23%
32.67
251.32%
23.54
181.05%
436.33
124.31%
278.86
79.45%
27.74
4.68%
140.84
23.74%
21.58
3.08%
157.46
22.46%
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
18.67
1.68
1.70
88.88%
8.42%
9.44%
19.13
1.06
4.96
91.11%
5.32%
27.55%
9.00
1.07
7.65
42.86%
10.74%
84.98%
11.40
0.26
7.92
54.29%
2.64%
87.98%
157.54
192.91
11.60
135.81%
117.63%
15.26%
102.83
246.44
24.48
88.65%
150.27%
32.21%
124.04
138.96
80.47
119.27%
107.72%
51.59%
78.43
179.16
33.18
75.42%
138.88%
21.27%
21.05
5.25
18.29
42.09%
6.72%
35.87%
6.84
5.67
24.83
13.67%
7.27%
48.69%
190.28
512.63
223.19
24.74%
55.96%
22.57%
1.57
726.93
19.25
0.20%
79.36%
1.95%
27.00
5.33
15.62
100.00%
11.83%
37.19%
27.00
12.87
4.10
100.00%
28.61%
9.75%
0.40
33.41
50.93
1.90%
37.12% 188.64%
3.88
51.92
35.35
18.48%
57.69% 130.92%
5.91
21.48
11.38
21.11%
89.50%
54.18%
10.33
21.10
13.30
36.89%
87.93%
63.34%
15.88
12.73
7.29
39.60%
39.78%
20.24%
20.72
19.44
1.37
51.68%
60.75%
3.81%
18.99
24.65
24.56
111.70%
47.40%
45.49%
11.79
20.55
30.45
69.36%
39.51%
56.39%
9.89
11.36
7.88
24.12%
23.18%
30.31%
16.11
5.71
1.10
39.29%
11.66%
4.25%
5.55
10.79
5.75
24.15%
34.81%
22.12%
9.04
7.76
9.80
39.32%
25.03%
37.70%
13.93
51.78
11.48
30.96%
36.73%
34.78%
2.14
38.40
15.78
4.77%
27.23%
47.83%
8.52
142.60
48.23
17.39%
548.46% 150.71%
2.98
167.89
32.18
6.09%
645.72% 100.57%
29.22
17.24
54.28
32.47%
30.79% 175.10%
41.38
28.23
37.22
45.98%
50.41% 120.08%
1.59
15.97
5.86
5.90%
34.72%
27.90%
4.12
25.27
8.89
15.28%
54.93%
42.32%
52.92
5.08
12.77
84.01%
10.59%
22.04%
29.74
1.35
1.37
47.20%
2.82%
2.37%
2.22
6.33
14.27
6.35%
16.65%
57.06%
5.22
12.97
16.41
14.92%
34.14%
65.65%
3.97
25.09
3.52
22.03%
66.03%
19.58%
6.77
23.16
6.42
37.62%
60.94%
35.66%
43.97
27.81
1.47
84.55%
75.16%
9.82%
45.57
26.43
1.82
87.64%
71.44%
12.14%
5.96
64.12
12.17
8.76%
66.79%
25.88%
8.83
59.33
0.33
12.99%
61.81%
0.71%
11.52
44.13
35.87
23.05%
157.60%
71.73%
19.22
54.95
18.69
38.44%
196.24%
37.39%
25.14
9.61
16.89
109.28%
15.51%
37.54%
15.51
1.76
4.51
67.43%
2.83%
10.03%
84.94
74.81
18.59
212.36%
76.34%
33.80%
59.96
71.33
25.87
149.89%
72.79%
47.04%
21.26
28.17
84.56
37.29%
68.71% 126.80%
28.41
38.55
54.31
49.84%
94.01%
81.44%
13.78
17.94
53.95
29.95%
24.57% 199.82%
20.22
9.68
37.76
43.96%
13.26% 139.86%
2.39
3.93
0.55
7.24%
17.86%
1.61%
4.69
1.22
7.24
14.21%
5.54%
21.29%
9.63
87.13
6.00
192.60% 2178.18% 100.00%
6.70
100.80
6.00
134.08% 2519.90% 100.00%
5.41
2.72
57.56
15.91%
6.33%
59.96%
2.47
3.32
65.25
7.27%
7.72%
67.96%
4.87
46.61
30.85
32.46%
291.34% 112.28%
6.90
56.01
19.18
45.97%
350.04%
69.82%
6.47
19.47
13.73
35.96%
51.23% 105.62%
8.78
16.69
8.38
48.77%
43.92%
64.49%
10.36
17.75
11.55
129.56%
68.28%
52.50%
6.69
16.52
13.64
83.64%
63.52%
62.00%
21.53
9.19
8.74
93.61%
19.55%
17.13%
12.62
3.51
17.19
54.89%
7.48%
33.70%
5.55
3.41
8.49
46.25%
20.07%
30.33%
2.04
6.47
12.39
17.00%
38.09%
44.26%
19.90
1.90
3.47
142.11%
7.91%
13.88%
13.12
5.78
7.78
93.69%
24.09%
31.11%
12.33
15.89
10.16
56.04%
113.52%
78.19%
5.46
20.38
10.73
24.83%
145.55%
82.55%
628.13
404.85
26.14
76.60%
48.37%
5.73%
666.51
340.03
112.11
81.28%
40.63%
24.59%
882.68
445.80
361.67
141.68%
66.74%
45.61%
581.54
412.47
447.93
93.35%
61.75%
56.49%
33.07
64.66
239.36
5.39%
6.77%
23.17%
96.15
68.89
398.09
15.68%
7.21%
38.54%
Apr-05
10.66
106.62%
10.66
106.62%
16.41
234.44%
16.41
234.44%
20.72
26.90%
20.72
26.90%
122.87
75.38%
122.87
75.38%
19.84
30.02%
19.84
30.02%
199.88
24.50%
199.88
24.50%
7.49
19.20%
7.49
19.20%
31.46
76.74%
31.46
76.74%
14.04
82.62%
14.04
82.62%
23.62
124.29%
23.62
124.29%
32.93
78.40%
32.93
78.40%
0.20
0.54%
0.20
0.54%
7.95
46.78%
7.95
46.78%
17.19
90.47%
17.19
90.47%
0.97
2.69%
0.97
2.69%
31.84
46.83%
31.84
46.83%
20.21
47.00%
20.21
47.00%
53.05
43.49%
53.05
43.49%
7.00
20.60%
7.00
20.60%
5.25
25.01%
5.25
25.01%
50.29
457.15%
50.29
457.15%
5.97
9.48%
5.97
9.48%
37.32
41.93%
37.32
41.93%
120.85
89.52%
120.85
89.52%
9.91
21.09%
9.91
21.09%
1.95
3.15%
1.95
3.15%
31.01
129.22%
31.01
129.22%
14.23
33.30%
14.23
33.30%
25.00
100.00%
25.00
100.00%
19.96
37.67%
19.96
37.67%
38.80
74.61%
38.80
74.61%
6.39
23.67%
6.39
23.67%
6.41
45.77%
6.41
45.77%
60.82
84.48%
60.82
84.48%
18.05
64.48%
18.05
64.48%
13.30
83.15%
13.30
83.15%
2.61
13.73%
2.61
13.73%
297.80
50.73%
297.80
50.73%
605.52
56.75%
605.52
56.75%
988.86
62.63%
988.86
62.63%
May-05
10.76
107.59%
13.87
138.73%
3.09
23.79%
5.51
42.35%
75.25
39.19%
57.73
30.07%
33.67
23.22%
16.97
11.70%
26.65
63.45%
36.95
87.97%
151.00
15.62%
28.65
2.96%
5.64
18.80%
10.99
36.62%
33.16
118.43%
42.33
151.19%
4.70
22.38%
8.55
40.73%
7.21
18.48%
2.44
6.25%
25.85
78.35%
34.68
105.10%
27.52
110.09%
35.40
141.61%
21.44
120.28%
27.33
153.33%
107.46
187.44%
132.18
230.56%
11.64
83.18%
11.29
80.65%
45.65
52.47%
39.45
45.35%
4.22
9.59%
1.75
3.98%
1.51
3.79%
4.26
10.65%
42.70
52.71%
36.95
45.62%
46.20
513.28%
54.47
605.28%
15.43
46.76%
22.70
68.77%
39.24
24.99%
21.58
13.74%
55.61
88.27%
54.50
86.51%
96.95
67.33%
89.90
62.43%
83.64
363.65%
99.64
433.20%
54.71
71.99%
51.52
67.79%
20.34
49.61%
29.54
72.05%
17.52
36.50%
12.95
26.98%
11.00
100.00%
11.00
100.00%
15.20
27.14%
9.08
16.21%
27.10
71.31%
25.46
67.01%
20.14
91.54%
26.46
120.27%
16.29
90.48%
21.43
119.05%
32.54
43.39%
26.17
34.90%
9.67
40.30%
7.52
31.35%
8.79
58.61%
12.36
82.40%
1.81
10.13%
0.60
3.35%
90.08
11.29%
223.29
27.98%
31.47
5.30%
52.91
8.91%
444.11
33.04%
309.13
23.00%
Jun-05
6.70
49.39%
6.70
49.39%
1.14
11.98%
1.14
11.98%
67.94
41.68%
67.94
41.68%
115.47
47.33%
115.47
47.33%
14.24
17.58%
14.24
17.58%
213.24
32.21%
213.24
32.21%
10.32
36.84%
10.32
36.84%
16.93
47.04%
16.93
47.04%
7.42
23.18%
7.42
23.18%
17.35
102.04%
17.35
102.04%
39.34
218.57%
39.34
218.57%
7.61
38.06%
7.61
38.06%
9.15
53.35%
9.15
53.35%
11.75
22.28%
11.75
22.28%
8.18
48.09%
8.18
48.09%
93.23
96.11%
93.23
96.11%
1.25
3.79%
1.25
3.79%
90.03
64.77%
90.03
64.77%
1.00
2.94%
1.00
2.94%
10.76
119.53%
10.76
119.53%
14.38
55.30%
14.38
55.30%
6.79
12.13%
6.79
12.13%
17.31
30.37%
17.31
30.37%
2.94
6.12%
2.94
6.12%
41.00
113.89%
41.00
113.89%
41.53
46.66%
41.53
46.66%
33.81
58.67%
33.81
58.67%
10.81
27.72%
10.81
27.72%
26.61
95.02%
26.61
95.02%
49.47
51.00%
49.47
51.00%
23.88
55.53%
23.88
55.53%
4.37
36.42%
4.37
36.42%
10.85
77.53%
10.85
77.53%
20.36
56.56%
20.36
56.56%
20.44
146.01%
20.44
146.01%
10.42
61.31%
10.42
61.31%
11.41
43.90%
11.41
43.90%
256.26
33.81%
256.26
33.81%
329.51
28.45%
329.51
28.45%
367.18
24.27%
367.18
24.27%
Averages
203
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
10.51
8.26
Holdout
MAPE
66.37%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
10.13
5.42
5.99
5.44
63.86
69.98
88.23
52.98%
46.19
31.51
61.42%
210.81
203.66
21.20%
28.01
19.25
63.37%
33.15
32.89
89.41%
7.56
12.37
79.63%
37.67
19.00
57.97%
22.38
27.76
97.22%
15.76
14.05
40.22%
9.30
6.50
32.71%
50.95
36.76
88.07%
52.47
32.40
95.60%
60.85
32.75
50.69%
16.45
8.26
25.53%
27.28
36.44
38.82%
9.87
10.38
27.90%
6.19
82.09%
144.26 105.62%
67.89
79.32
47.52%
52.34
30.55
58.61%
189.29
183.12
18.60%
25.87
20.65
68.33%
31.00
32.81
88.58%
7.05
12.96
82.15%
38.99
19.87
60.08%
21.61
29.15
98.99%
17.80
14.82
43.16%
8.66
7.74
39.06%
49.08
33.51
78.30%
55.10
31.64
97.99%
67.67
34.33
50.61%
17.95
8.04
24.09%
31.01
32.23
32.88%
10.56
27.61%
9.06
16.34 113.12%
23.71
30.75 148.74%
28.47
17.54
24.29%
27.36
28.36
60.41%
80.50
43.03
55.05%
25.34
39.26
96.53%
39.11
33.62
48.47%
25.54
28.59
67.07%
20.88
23.80
59.38%
13.79
22.90 290.89%
12.52
20.29
37.46%
24.08
22.46
76.09%
12.07
9.72
49.34%
2.40
7.75
51.99%
19.28
23.19
47.24%
5.10
8.28
43.66%
14.58
12.20
54.60%
7.54
11.23
62.58%
222.76
328.16
62.19%
129.16
292.36
42.47%
239.75
279.18
26.62%
12.47
17.75 125.73%
22.84
32.94 162.14%
27.01
17.98
26.90%
32.26
29.31
63.90%
76.13
38.81
46.98%
25.19
40.65 103.42%
34.09
33.62
51.76
67.49%
48.87%
22.14
28.72
65.66%
19.61
26.11
67.63%
13.24
23.70 308.36%
12.78
19.38
34.84%
25.75
21.98
77.36%
12.33
10.20
51.04%
3.23
7.75
49.63%
18.72
22.67
44.79%
5.36
8.58
44.82%
13.07
12.31
54.26%
6.93
10.18
56.56%
233.43
334.06
61.90%
121.33
296.83
44.81%
234.47
44.12
69.03%
145.00 107.76%
68.63
12.42
8.55
84.38%
43.67
300.51
51.86
30.32%
68.58%

Jul-04
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
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Aug-04
Sep-04
4.33
30.92%
4.33
30.92%
5.74
38.26%
5.74
38.26%
157.80
49.16%
157.80
49.16%
162.28
60.33%
162.28
60.33%
52.36
45.93%
52.36
45.93%
129.19
11.26%
129.19
11.26%
4.07
16.28%
4.07
16.28%
2.64
12.56%
2.64
12.56%
11.22
43.17%
11.22
43.17%
54.40
272.00%
54.40
272.00%
10.43
27.44%
10.43
27.44%
4.80
17.14%
4.80
17.14%
2.70
17.99%
2.70
17.99%
7.73
8.14%
7.73
8.14%
12.73
34.41%
12.73
34.41%
11.95
18.67%
11.95
18.67%
6.90
26.56%
6.90
26.56%
26.28
20.37%
26.28
20.37%
4.05
13.07%
4.05
13.07%
2.44
15.24%
2.44
15.24%
9.02
42.96%
9.02
42.96%
8.76
11.38%
8.76
11.38%
0.66
1.40%
0.66
1.40%
20.50
24.12%
20.50
24.12%
20.08
40.97%
20.08
40.97%
11.29
16.60%
11.29
16.60%
50.45
97.03%
50.45
97.03%
16.55
41.38%
16.55
41.38%
12.38
95.27%
12.38
95.27%
17.07
38.79%
17.07
38.79%
17.40
79.10%
17.40
79.10%
5.08
63.53%
5.08
63.53%
5.92
42.31%
5.92
42.31%
18.24
26.83%
18.24
26.83%
4.13
31.76%
4.13
31.76%
17.45
48.48%
17.45
48.48%
12.43
32.71%
12.43
32.71%
327.97
43.21%
327.97
43.21%
213.82
32.06%
213.82
32.06%
243.51
33.13%
243.51
33.13%
Oct-04
12.74
182.03%
12.74
182.03%
1.06
13.26%
1.06
13.26%
21.76
10.93%
21.76
10.93%
53.15
27.83%
53.15
27.83%
31.28
74.47%
31.28
74.47%
110.49
10.45%
110.49
10.45%
54.63
420.25%
54.63
420.25%
44.01
220.06%
44.01
220.06%
6.73
36.19%
6.73
36.19%
47.53
176.04%
47.53
176.04%
1.93
6.90%
1.93
6.90%
31.30
94.85%
31.30
94.85%
10.14
53.35%
10.14
53.35%
0.59
0.94%
0.59
0.94%
38.41
69.83%
38.41
69.83%
25.95
38.16%
25.95
38.16%
10.43
35.95%
10.43
35.95%
40.65
38.19%
40.65
38.19%
6.81
17.03%
6.81
17.03%
1.97
10.80%
1.97
10.80%
39.33
206.99%
39.33
206.99%
24.75
34.38%
24.75
34.38%
2.15
7.43%
2.15
7.43%
276.73
469.03%
276.73
469.03%
37.85
42.53%
37.85
42.53%
104.84
201.61%
104.84
201.61%
116.98
292.46%
116.98
292.46%
87.32
193.64%
87.32
193.64%
12.48
73.42%
12.48
73.42%
3.72
10.94%
3.72
10.94%
34.29
201.71%
34.29
201.71%
5.84
38.90%
5.84
38.90%
2.77
17.29%
2.77
17.29%
25.44
59.17%
25.44
59.17%
0.64
3.19%
0.64
3.19%
6.91
22.29%
6.91
22.29%
9.93
35.48%
9.93
35.48%
246.68
113.68%
246.68
113.68%
527.71
46.91%
527.71
46.91%
241.66
42.85%
241.66
42.85%
Nov-04
4.57
24.05%
8.11
42.66%
14.65
183.18%
18.05
225.65%
99.43
27.17%
59.45
16.24%
156.53
53.06%
156.53
53.06%
30.51
39.63%
23.54
30.57%
613.15
42.11%
486.73
33.43%
7.75
16.85%
7.75
16.85%
35.46
37.33%
26.53
27.93%
6.63
73.65%
8.97
99.70%
26.60
51.16%
22.79
43.83%
15.23
56.41%
13.47
49.87%
6.50
15.12%
13.93
32.39%
7.47
35.58%
5.44
25.92%
40.61
38.31%
30.80
29.06%
124.86
91.14%
123.04
89.81%
7.20
9.73%
2.82
3.80%
32.18
63.10%
29.36
57.57%
84.28
125.78%
106.97
159.65%
10.71
24.92%
5.87
13.66%
15.51
96.92%
20.23
126.46%
72.10
554.60%
84.86
652.79%
63.17
175.48%
78.05
216.80%
16.80
25.08%
9.27
13.84%
237.05
431.01%
280.86
510.66%
82.72
344.65%
98.72
411.35%
30.05
41.74%
23.76
33.00%
6.97
11.24%
17.31
27.92%
1.56
5.20%
6.29
20.98%
49.32
86.52%
48.16
84.50%
19.31
47.10%
16.06
39.17%
40.72
75.41%
38.73
71.72%
6.02
31.69%
4.07
21.44%
0.46
4.63%
0.97
9.68%
33.57
79.93%
44.91
106.92%
8.62
43.08%
6.91
34.54%
2.78
9.94%
1.00
3.57%
1.28
4.57%
5.67
20.26%
231.81
35.34%
364.98
55.64%
217.31
83.26%
289.06
110.75%
308.71
34.96%
222.56
25.21%
Dec-04
5.72
47.64%
6.97
58.11%
11.28
282.06%
8.23
205.64%
123.47
173.91%
84.58
119.13%
26.88
13.18%
26.88
13.18%
9.37
22.31%
0.91
2.16%
11.69
1.13%
198.39
19.10%
33.46
66.92%
33.46
66.92%
2.29
4.02%
13.23
23.22%
3.54
35.44%
0.83
8.35%
13.14
31.29%
2.11
5.03%
4.58
14.78%
9.87
31.83%
8.55
30.55%
1.24
4.44%
1.14
5.68%
4.91
24.54%
57.28
286.41%
41.83
209.13%
32.44
55.92%
37.55
64.74%
3.27
4.09%
13.38
16.73%
0.10
0.60%
3.48
20.48%
17.88
21.78%
2.11
2.57%
27.97
155.36%
18.77
104.29%
8.55
44.99%
3.04
15.99%
21.61
77.18%
11.69
41.74%
21.09
29.29%
31.27
43.43%
47.88
63.83%
53.30
71.07%
398.98
561.94%
304.98
429.55%
59.48
132.17%
38.58
85.74%
43.14
37.51%
57.51
50.01%
29.40
40.27%
8.92
12.22%
9.24
18.11%
2.81
5.51%
5.01
166.95%
3.41
113.56%
10.46
28.29%
15.76
42.63%
29.95
53.49%
35.16
62.79%
8.85
38.47%
11.68
50.78%
2.81
25.54%
0.05
0.43%
6.12
13.91%
3.91
8.88%
6.61
36.70%
8.89
49.36%
13.89
55.55%
16.11
64.44%
22.01
169.28%
15.01
115.42%
905.06
257.85%
653.84
186.28%
43.16
7.27%
153.17
25.82%
753.22
107.45%
462.38
65.96%
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
15.70
5.31
0.48
3.93
5.14
74.76%
26.54%
2.64%
39.30%
51.39%
16.76
3.10
3.22
3.93
7.41
79.81%
15.52%
17.89%
39.30%
74.10%
3.28
1.43
0.22
2.86
0.14
15.60%
14.34%
2.48%
40.93%
1.08%
6.82
3.15
1.62
2.86
1.79
32.48%
31.49%
18.02%
40.93%
13.76%
18.79
17.12
106.89
109.58
106.74
16.20%
10.44% 140.64% 142.32%
55.59%
8.17
44.28
70.31
109.58
151.55
7.04%
27.00%
92.51% 142.32%
78.93%
43.50
57.09
62.08
125.76
239.49
41.83%
44.25%
39.79%
77.15% 165.17%
43.50
57.09
62.08
125.76
239.49
41.83%
44.25%
39.79%
77.15% 165.17%
24.61
45.67
23.35
41.92
60.27
49.21%
58.55%
45.79%
63.43% 143.50%
9.68
64.22
8.48
41.92
75.61
19.37%
82.33%
16.63%
63.43% 180.02%
551.57
106.32
187.03
608.90
360.76
71.73%
11.61%
18.91%
74.62%
37.32%
287.46
259.67
347.42
608.90
559.88
37.38%
28.35%
35.13%
74.62%
57.92%
7.62
14.51
1.94
9.49
69.10
28.23%
32.25%
4.63%
24.34% 230.35%
7.62
14.51
1.94
9.49
69.10
28.23%
32.25%
4.63%
24.34% 230.35%
10.96
56.32
12.33
82.35
31.67
52.21%
62.58%
45.67% 200.85% 113.12%
4.57
51.27
4.46
82.35
40.63
21.77%
56.97%
16.54% 200.85% 145.09%
16.46
11.07
6.53
7.84
7.04
58.77%
46.13%
31.12%
46.10%
33.53%
18.76
9.13
9.43
7.84
4.95
67.02%
38.05%
44.89%
46.10%
23.57%
7.20
40.03
2.50
3.05
10.83
17.95%
125.09%
6.95%
16.05%
27.77%
2.26
50.83
9.20
3.05
6.61
5.64%
158.85%
25.56%
16.05%
16.94%
0.97
15.53
25.61
60.72
57.67
5.73%
29.86%
47.43% 144.57% 174.76%
4.18
10.05
31.29
60.72
71.27
24.59%
19.34%
57.95% 144.57% 215.97%
32.73
32.19
13.69
8.34
16.74
79.84%
65.69%
52.64%
22.55%
66.95%
17.99
44.37
5.75
8.34
23.00
43.87%
90.54%
22.11%
22.55%
91.99%
10.28
2.85
12.77
0.11
4.79
44.67%
9.19%
49.11%
0.63%
26.86%
3.62
1.37
15.41
0.11
8.18
15.74%
4.43%
59.29%
0.63%
45.88%
122.93
3.57
10.24
20.65
4.98
273.17%
2.53%
31.02% 108.68%
8.68%
89.34
17.04
1.59
20.65
14.33
198.54%
12.09%
4.82% 108.68%
24.99%
33.07
244.41
220.10
186.28
104.89
67.49%
940.03% 687.83% 517.44% 749.18%
16.66
284.97
169.68
186.28
122.72
33.99% 1096.03% 530.26% 517.44% 876.56%
30.44
99.74
49.68
51.07
11.53
33.83%
178.11% 160.27%
75.10%
13.26%
42.36
123.10
33.55
51.07
26.31
47.06%
219.82% 108.22%
75.10%
30.25%
42.38
14.21
6.76
15.98
11.45
157.10%
30.89%
32.21%
37.16%
26.02%
28.51
23.24
1.21
15.98
6.57
105.68%
50.53%
5.77%
37.16%
14.92%
44.49
40.74
11.48
53.71
16.74
70.61%
84.87%
19.81%
44.03%
41.84%
22.99
54.05
2.40
53.71
25.25
36.49%
112.61%
4.15%
44.03%
63.12%
19.54
2.86
1.84
11.26
26.84
55.82%
7.53%
7.35%
33.12%
33.14%
8.63
2.41
3.53
11.26
18.72
24.65%
6.34%
14.12%
33.12%
23.11%
2.54
4.00
8.88
3.30
18.13
14.14%
10.53%
49.32%
15.71% 201.40%
1.56
1.10
10.70
3.30
22.19
8.69%
2.89%
59.45%
15.71% 246.61%
35.42
15.68
14.93
34.77
23.73
68.12%
42.38%
99.53% 316.11%
71.91%
38.74
12.48
8.94
34.77
22.34
74.49%
33.74%
59.62% 316.11%
67.70%
25.91
56.48
8.22
33.40
32.32
38.10%
58.84%
17.49%
53.02%
20.59%
34.32
50.55
2.83
33.40
13.62
50.48%
52.66%
6.01%
53.02%
8.68%
6.84
96.04
3.61
32.51
6.44
13.67%
343.00%
7.22%
36.52%
10.23%
15.47
114.65
12.89
32.51
2.04
30.94%
409.45%
25.77%
36.52%
3.24%
114.15
3.01
9.07
33.15
34.60
496.29%
4.85%
20.15%
24.55%
24.02%
86.72
12.76
16.25
33.15
18.19
377.03%
20.58%
36.12%
24.55%
12.63%
4.60
24.37
2.47
19.10
76.79
11.50%
24.87%
4.49%
40.63% 333.88%
11.68
13.33
12.98
19.10
91.76
29.20%
13.60%
23.59%
40.63% 398.96%
7.40
15.84
16.86
21.91
8.38
12.99%
38.62%
25.27%
35.29%
11.03%
17.32
24.36
26.82
21.91
21.04
30.39%
59.42%
40.22%
35.29%
27.68%
3.72
28.08
28.03
51.62
18.63
8.08%
38.46% 103.81% 215.09%
45.45%
6.23
21.34
17.02
51.62
27.58
13.54%
29.23%
63.05% 215.09%
67.27%
2.33
31.22
5.90
0.43
12.14
7.05%
141.89%
17.34%
1.01%
25.28%
4.74
39.20
2.08
0.43
6.76
14.36%
178.18%
6.13%
1.01%
14.07%
7.82
20.87
3.53
28.09
12.97
156.43%
521.66%
58.76% 112.36% 117.94%
5.26
24.60
1.62
28.09
16.57
105.14%
614.91%
27.01% 112.36% 150.64%
10.58
23.07
77.53
14.24
30.14
31.11%
53.64%
80.76%
26.88%
53.82%
15.26
20.08
81.23
14.24
43.06
44.89%
46.69%
84.61%
26.88%
76.89%
13.84
36.57
9.16
5.86
16.05
92.25%
228.54%
33.35%
11.26%
42.25%
8.07
44.45
1.84
5.86
12.76
53.80%
277.82%
6.68%
11.26%
33.58%
7.23
13.37
3.57
7.49
15.44
40.17%
35.19%
27.49%
27.75%
70.18%
9.38
9.68
0.26
7.49
21.06
52.14%
25.47%
1.99%
27.75%
95.71%
4.51
15.72
5.83
4.35
2.94
56.42%
60.45%
26.51%
31.10%
16.33%
2.01
14.17
9.07
4.35
0.68
25.14%
54.51%
41.21%
31.10%
3.78%
16.65
13.99
25.97
10.36
11.04
72.40%
29.77%
50.92%
14.39%
14.71%
8.72
9.04
30.97
10.36
23.94
37.92%
19.24%
60.73%
14.39%
31.92%
1.11
5.26
13.19
5.79
5.38
9.29%
30.92%
47.10%
20.69%
22.43%
1.51
3.50
16.15
5.79
2.59
12.57%
20.56%
57.68%
20.69%
10.80%
2.11
7.26
23.12
1.84
20.07
15.10%
30.24%
92.48%
11.48% 133.78%
1.11
11.95
13.50
1.84
25.33
7.92%
49.78%
53.98%
11.48% 168.84%
0.78
15.93
2.82
0.02
6.32
3.53%
113.80%
21.68%
0.09%
35.35%
3.78
20.42
4.85
0.02
9.95
17.18%
145.87%
37.34%
0.09%
55.66%
161.83
254.79
841.31
733.69
149.34
19.74%
30.44% 184.50% 124.99%
18.71%
293.47
418.56
581.85
733.69
291.44
35.79%
50.01% 127.60% 124.99%
36.52%
245.25
7.63
258.65
134.19
309.92
39.37%
1.14%
32.62%
12.58%
52.18%
320.80
91.43
365.52
134.19
445.51
51.49%
13.69%
46.09%
12.58%
75.00%
154.03
97.92
109.48
29.44
370.10
25.13%
10.25%
10.60%
1.86%
27.54%
0.62
255.86
294.19
29.44
224.01
0.10%
26.79%
28.48%
1.86%
16.67%
Jun-05
25.36
181.11%
25.36
181.11%
2.07
21.71%
2.07
21.71%
60.42
37.07%
60.42
37.07%
138.29
56.67%
138.29
56.67%
21.42
26.44%
21.42
26.44%
713.11
107.72%
713.11
107.72%
25.14
89.80%
25.14
89.80%
46.46
129.07%
46.46
129.07%
9.98
31.17%
9.98
31.17%
10.49
61.72%
10.49
61.72%
8.77
48.72%
8.77
48.72%
21.11
105.55%
21.11
105.55%
3.77
21.99%
3.77
21.99%
0.04
0.09%
0.04
0.09%
22.18
130.50%
22.18
130.50%
30.92
31.88%
30.92
31.88%
3.75
11.35%
3.75
11.35%
87.97
63.29%
87.97
63.29%
6.13
18.02%
6.13
18.02%
47.74
530.43%
47.74
530.43%
4.52
17.37%
4.52
17.37%
31.52
56.28%
31.52
56.28%
14.02
24.59%
14.02
24.59%
36.45
75.94%
36.45
75.94%
4.51
12.53%
4.51
12.53%
3.81
4.28%
3.81
4.28%
1.59
2.76%
1.59
2.76%
3.16
8.10%
3.16
8.10%
17.79
63.54%
17.79
63.54%
55.48
57.19%
55.48
57.19%
12.12
28.20%
12.12
28.20%
1.50
12.54%
1.50
12.54%
8.31
59.32%
8.31
59.32%
17.61
48.91%
17.61
48.91%
9.00
64.30%
9.00
64.30%
5.07
29.81%
5.07
29.81%
12.76
49.08%
12.76
49.08%
346.11
45.66%
346.11
45.66%
179.15
15.47%
179.15
15.47%
661.98
43.75%
661.98
43.75%
Averages
204
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
13.60
8.33
Holdout
MAPE
66.04%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
13.60
11.30
4.27
61.29%
188.00
82.20
66.34%
139.20
106.50
57.93%
87.40
34.07
56.92%
991.13
339.22
38.69%
39.20
22.77
92.99%
45.30
32.45
87.75%
15.30
8.70
43.53%
56.30
21.58
78.60%
33.99
20.14
55.66%
44.60
17.60
55.09%
18.09
5.60
26.51%
69.60
26.86
75.80%
42.50
11.30
5.14
64.12%
76.79
58.03%
139.20
106.50
57.93%
87.40
32.94
54.13%
991.13
370.12
41.54%
39.20
22.77
92.99%
45.30
31.62
85.40%
15.30
8.78
43.82%
56.30
20.93
78.17%
33.99
22.20
62.72%
44.60
17.18
52.54%
18.09
5.57
26.98%
69.60
22.39
59.65%
101.94 334.38%
32.18
14.41
42.09%
115.48
42.42
53.06%
34.40
11.80
36.53%
22.70
11.31
98.95%
81.20
36.14
58.97%
28.60
12.94
36.60%
115.48
42.24
54.45%
8.62
26.74%
34.40
27.80
27.11 149.72%
58.70
30.56
49.48%
55.90
22.69
53.30%
22.70
11.43 103.23%
27.80
26.67 151.35%
58.70
30.91
53.31%
25.69
62.42%
55.90
116.37 213.19%
43.00
33.20
98.82%
63.30
26.35
42.49%
73.00
33.55
85.47%
49.90
16.98
45.90%
16.10
17.03 145.28%
20.70
26.16
42.85%
34.00
21.60
84.56%
17.80
7.44
38.59%
9.87
5.36
33.99%
43.14
17.90
41.09%
15.30
5.97
30.95%
21.94
10.05
44.91%
24.40
8.43
46.56%
514.60
419.86
87.41%
485.30
213.68
32.28%
601.30
297.00
33.75%
76.70
108.66 198.02%
43.00
34.86 109.91%
63.30
31.27
49.85%
73.00
31.91
82.06%
49.90
16.93
48.34%
16.10
17.04 144.03%
20.70
28.20
46.87%
34.00
21.07
82.67%
17.80
7.60
39.02%
9.87
4.83
28.48%
43.14
19.31
41.49%
15.30
5.91
30.54%
21.94
10.03
46.06%
24.40
9.48
50.91%
514.60
425.86
81.94%
485.30
272.04
42.99%
601.30
108.27
101.42 344.36%
56.31%
28.60
76.70
72.15%
188.00
42.50
81.20
9.19
57.54
72.13% 108.27
263.62
58.92
28.48%
72.33%
Alpha, Gamma Fitted

Jul-04
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
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Error
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Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Aug-04
Sep-04
4.33
30.92%
4.33
30.92%
5.74
38.26%
5.74
38.26%
157.80
49.16%
157.80
49.16%
162.28
60.33%
162.28
60.33%
52.36
45.93%
52.36
45.93%
129.19
11.26%
129.19
11.26%
4.07
16.28%
4.07
16.28%
2.64
12.56%
2.64
12.56%
11.22
43.17%
11.22
43.17%
54.40
272.00%
54.40
272.00%
10.43
27.44%
10.43
27.44%
4.80
17.14%
4.80
17.14%
2.70
17.99%
2.70
17.99%
7.73
8.14%
7.73
8.14%
12.73
34.41%
12.73
34.41%
11.95
18.67%
11.95
18.67%
6.90
26.56%
6.90
26.56%
26.28
20.37%
26.28
20.37%
4.05
13.07%
4.05
13.07%
2.44
15.24%
2.44
15.24%
9.02
42.96%
9.02
42.96%
8.76
11.38%
8.76
11.38%
0.66
1.40%
0.66
1.40%
20.50
24.12%
20.50
24.12%
20.08
40.97%
20.08
40.97%
11.29
16.60%
11.29
16.60%
50.45
97.03%
50.45
97.03%
16.55
41.38%
16.55
41.38%
12.38
95.27%
12.38
95.27%
17.07
38.79%
17.07
38.79%
17.40
79.10%
17.40
79.10%
5.08
63.53%
5.08
63.53%
5.92
42.31%
5.92
42.31%
18.24
26.83%
18.24
26.83%
4.13
31.76%
4.13
31.76%
17.45
48.48%
17.45
48.48%
12.43
32.71%
12.43
32.71%
327.97
43.21%
327.97
43.21%
213.82
32.06%
213.82
32.06%
243.51
33.13%
243.51
33.13%
Oct-04
12.74
182.03%
12.74
182.03%
1.06
13.26%
1.06
13.26%
21.76
10.93%
21.76
10.93%
53.15
27.83%
53.15
27.83%
31.28
74.47%
31.28
74.47%
110.49
10.45%
110.49
10.45%
54.63
420.25%
54.63
420.25%
44.01
220.06%
44.01
220.06%
6.73
36.19%
6.73
36.19%
47.53
176.04%
47.53
176.04%
1.93
6.90%
1.93
6.90%
31.30
94.85%
31.30
94.85%
10.14
53.35%
10.14
53.35%
0.59
0.94%
0.59
0.94%
38.41
69.83%
38.41
69.83%
25.95
38.16%
25.95
38.16%
10.43
35.95%
10.43
35.95%
40.65
38.19%
40.65
38.19%
6.81
17.03%
6.81
17.03%
1.97
10.80%
1.97
10.80%
39.33
206.99%
39.33
206.99%
24.75
34.38%
24.75
34.38%
2.15
7.43%
2.15
7.43%
276.73
469.03%
276.73
469.03%
37.85
42.53%
37.85
42.53%
104.84
201.61%
104.84
201.61%
116.98
292.46%
116.98
292.46%
87.32
193.64%
87.32
193.64%
12.48
73.42%
12.48
73.42%
3.72
10.94%
3.72
10.94%
34.29
201.71%
34.29
201.71%
5.84
38.90%
5.84
38.90%
2.77
17.29%
2.77
17.29%
25.44
59.17%
25.44
59.17%
0.64
3.19%
0.64
3.19%
6.91
22.29%
6.91
22.29%
9.93
35.48%
9.93
35.48%
246.68
113.68%
246.68
113.68%
527.71
46.91%
527.71
46.91%
241.66
42.85%
241.66
42.85%
Nov-04
4.57
24.05%
8.11
42.66%
14.65
183.18%
18.05
225.65%
99.43
27.17%
59.45
16.24%
156.53
53.06%
156.53
53.06%
30.51
39.63%
23.54
30.57%
613.15
42.11%
486.73
33.43%
7.75
16.85%
7.75
16.85%
35.46
37.33%
26.53
27.93%
6.63
73.65%
8.97
99.70%
26.60
51.16%
22.79
43.83%
15.23
56.41%
13.47
49.87%
6.50
15.12%
13.93
32.39%
7.47
35.58%
5.44
25.92%
40.61
38.31%
30.80
29.06%
124.86
91.14%
123.04
89.81%
7.20
9.73%
2.82
3.80%
32.18
63.10%
29.36
57.57%
84.28
125.78%
106.97
159.65%
10.71
24.92%
5.87
13.66%
15.51
96.92%
20.23
126.46%
72.10
554.60%
84.86
652.79%
63.17
175.48%
78.05
216.80%
16.80
25.08%
9.27
13.84%
237.05
431.01%
280.86
510.66%
82.72
344.65%
98.72
411.35%
30.05
41.74%
23.76
33.00%
6.97
11.24%
17.31
27.92%
1.56
5.20%
6.29
20.98%
49.32
86.52%
48.16
84.50%
19.31
47.10%
16.06
39.17%
40.72
75.41%
38.73
71.72%
6.02
31.69%
4.07
21.44%
0.46
4.63%
0.97
9.68%
33.57
79.93%
44.91
106.92%
8.62
43.08%
6.91
34.54%
2.78
9.94%
1.00
3.57%
1.28
4.57%
5.67
20.26%
231.81
35.34%
364.98
55.64%
217.31
83.26%
289.06
110.75%
308.71
34.96%
222.56
25.21%
Dec-04
5.72
47.64%
6.97
58.11%
11.28
282.06%
8.23
205.64%
123.47
173.91%
84.58
119.13%
26.88
13.18%
26.88
13.18%
9.37
22.31%
0.91
2.16%
11.69
1.13%
198.39
19.10%
33.46
66.92%
33.46
66.92%
2.29
4.02%
13.23
23.22%
3.54
35.44%
0.83
8.35%
13.14
31.29%
2.11
5.03%
4.58
14.78%
9.87
31.83%
8.55
30.55%
1.24
4.44%
1.14
5.68%
4.91
24.54%
57.28
286.41%
41.83
209.13%
32.44
55.92%
37.55
64.74%
3.27
4.09%
13.38
16.73%
0.10
0.60%
3.48
20.48%
17.88
21.78%
2.11
2.57%
27.97
155.36%
18.77
104.29%
8.55
44.99%
3.04
15.99%
21.61
77.18%
11.69
41.74%
21.09
29.29%
31.27
43.43%
47.88
63.83%
53.30
71.07%
398.98
561.94%
304.98
429.55%
59.48
132.17%
38.58
85.74%
43.14
37.51%
57.51
50.01%
29.40
40.27%
8.92
12.22%
9.24
18.11%
2.81
5.51%
5.01
166.95%
3.41
113.56%
10.46
28.29%
15.76
42.63%
29.95
53.49%
35.16
62.79%
8.85
38.47%
11.68
50.78%
2.81
25.54%
0.05
0.43%
6.12
13.91%
3.91
8.88%
6.61
36.70%
8.89
49.36%
13.89
55.55%
16.11
64.44%
22.01
169.28%
15.01
115.42%
905.06
257.85%
653.84
186.28%
43.16
7.27%
153.17
25.82%
753.22
107.45%
462.38
65.96%
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
15.70
5.31
0.48
3.93
5.14
74.76%
26.54%
2.64%
39.30%
51.39%
16.76
3.10
3.22
3.93
7.41
79.81%
15.52%
17.89%
39.30%
74.10%
3.28
1.43
0.22
2.86
0.14
15.60%
14.34%
2.48%
40.93%
1.08%
6.82
3.15
1.62
2.86
1.79
32.48%
31.49%
18.02%
40.93%
13.76%
18.79
17.12
106.89
109.58
106.74
16.20%
10.44% 140.64% 142.32%
55.59%
8.17
44.28
70.31
109.58
151.55
7.04%
27.00%
92.51% 142.32%
78.93%
43.50
57.09
62.08
125.76
239.49
41.83%
44.25%
39.79%
77.15% 165.17%
43.50
57.09
62.08
125.76
239.49
41.83%
44.25%
39.79%
77.15% 165.17%
24.61
45.67
23.35
41.92
60.27
49.21%
58.55%
45.79%
63.43% 143.50%
9.68
64.22
8.48
41.92
75.61
19.37%
82.33%
16.63%
63.43% 180.02%
551.57
106.32
187.03
608.90
360.76
71.73%
11.61%
18.91%
74.62%
37.32%
287.46
259.67
347.42
608.90
559.88
37.38%
28.35%
35.13%
74.62%
57.92%
7.62
14.51
1.94
9.49
69.10
28.23%
32.25%
4.63%
24.34% 230.35%
7.62
14.51
1.94
9.49
69.10
28.23%
32.25%
4.63%
24.34% 230.35%
10.96
56.32
12.33
82.35
31.67
52.21%
62.58%
45.67% 200.85% 113.12%
4.57
51.27
4.46
82.35
40.63
21.77%
56.97%
16.54% 200.85% 145.09%
16.46
11.07
6.53
7.84
7.04
58.77%
46.13%
31.12%
46.10%
33.53%
18.76
9.13
9.43
7.84
4.95
67.02%
38.05%
44.89%
46.10%
23.57%
7.20
40.03
2.50
3.05
10.83
17.95%
125.09%
6.95%
16.05%
27.77%
2.26
50.83
9.20
3.05
6.61
5.64%
158.85%
25.56%
16.05%
16.94%
0.97
15.53
25.61
60.72
57.67
5.73%
29.86%
47.43% 144.57% 174.76%
4.18
10.05
31.29
60.72
71.27
24.59%
19.34%
57.95% 144.57% 215.97%
32.73
32.19
13.69
8.34
16.74
79.84%
65.69%
52.64%
22.55%
66.95%
17.99
44.37
5.75
8.34
23.00
43.87%
90.54%
22.11%
22.55%
91.99%
10.28
2.85
12.77
0.11
4.79
44.67%
9.19%
49.11%
0.63%
26.86%
3.62
1.37
15.41
0.11
8.18
15.74%
4.43%
59.29%
0.63%
45.88%
122.93
3.57
10.24
20.65
4.98
273.17%
2.53%
31.02% 108.68%
8.68%
89.34
17.04
1.59
20.65
14.33
198.54%
12.09%
4.82% 108.68%
24.99%
33.07
244.41
220.10
186.28
104.89
67.49%
940.03% 687.83% 517.44% 749.18%
16.66
284.97
169.68
186.28
122.72
33.99% 1096.03% 530.26% 517.44% 876.56%
30.44
99.74
49.68
51.07
11.53
33.83%
178.11% 160.27%
75.10%
13.26%
42.36
123.10
33.55
51.07
26.31
47.06%
219.82% 108.22%
75.10%
30.25%
42.38
14.21
6.76
15.98
11.45
157.10%
30.89%
32.21%
37.16%
26.02%
28.51
23.24
1.21
15.98
6.57
105.68%
50.53%
5.77%
37.16%
14.92%
44.49
40.74
11.48
53.71
16.74
70.61%
84.87%
19.81%
44.03%
41.84%
22.99
54.05
2.40
53.71
25.25
36.49%
112.61%
4.15%
44.03%
63.12%
19.54
2.86
1.84
11.26
26.84
55.82%
7.53%
7.35%
33.12%
33.14%
8.63
2.41
3.53
11.26
18.72
24.65%
6.34%
14.12%
33.12%
23.11%
2.54
4.00
8.88
3.30
18.13
14.14%
10.53%
49.32%
15.71% 201.40%
1.56
1.10
10.70
3.30
22.19
8.69%
2.89%
59.45%
15.71% 246.61%
35.42
15.68
14.93
34.77
23.73
68.12%
42.38%
99.53% 316.11%
71.91%
38.74
12.48
8.94
34.77
22.34
74.49%
33.74%
59.62% 316.11%
67.70%
25.91
56.48
8.22
33.40
32.32
38.10%
58.84%
17.49%
53.02%
20.59%
34.32
50.55
2.83
33.40
13.62
50.48%
52.66%
6.01%
53.02%
8.68%
6.84
96.04
3.61
32.51
6.44
13.67%
343.00%
7.22%
36.52%
10.23%
15.47
114.65
12.89
32.51
2.04
30.94%
409.45%
25.77%
36.52%
3.24%
114.15
3.01
9.07
33.15
34.60
496.29%
4.85%
20.15%
24.55%
24.02%
86.72
12.76
16.25
33.15
18.19
377.03%
20.58%
36.12%
24.55%
12.63%
4.60
24.37
2.47
19.10
76.79
11.50%
24.87%
4.49%
40.63% 333.88%
11.68
13.33
12.98
19.10
91.76
29.20%
13.60%
23.59%
40.63% 398.96%
7.40
15.84
16.86
21.91
8.38
12.99%
38.62%
25.27%
35.29%
11.03%
17.32
24.36
26.82
21.91
21.04
30.39%
59.42%
40.22%
35.29%
27.68%
3.72
28.08
28.03
51.62
18.63
8.08%
38.46% 103.81% 215.09%
45.45%
6.23
21.34
17.02
51.62
27.58
13.54%
29.23%
63.05% 215.09%
67.27%
2.33
31.22
5.90
0.43
12.14
7.05%
141.89%
17.34%
1.01%
25.28%
4.74
39.20
2.08
0.43
6.76
14.36%
178.18%
6.13%
1.01%
14.07%
7.82
20.87
3.53
28.09
12.97
156.43%
521.66%
58.76% 112.36% 117.94%
5.26
24.60
1.62
28.09
16.57
105.14%
614.91%
27.01% 112.36% 150.64%
10.58
23.07
77.53
14.24
30.14
31.11%
53.64%
80.76%
26.88%
53.82%
15.26
20.08
81.23
14.24
43.06
44.89%
46.69%
84.61%
26.88%
76.89%
13.84
36.57
9.16
5.86
16.05
92.25%
228.54%
33.35%
11.26%
42.25%
8.07
44.45
1.84
5.86
12.76
53.80%
277.82%
6.68%
11.26%
33.58%
7.23
13.37
3.57
7.49
15.44
40.17%
35.19%
27.49%
27.75%
70.18%
9.38
9.68
0.26
7.49
21.06
52.14%
25.47%
1.99%
27.75%
95.71%
4.51
15.72
5.83
4.35
2.94
56.42%
60.45%
26.51%
31.10%
16.33%
2.01
14.17
9.07
4.35
0.68
25.14%
54.51%
41.21%
31.10%
3.78%
16.65
13.99
25.97
10.36
11.04
72.40%
29.77%
50.92%
14.39%
14.71%
8.72
9.04
30.97
10.36
23.94
37.92%
19.24%
60.73%
14.39%
31.92%
1.11
5.26
13.19
5.79
5.38
9.29%
30.92%
47.10%
20.69%
22.43%
1.51
3.50
16.15
5.79
2.59
12.57%
20.56%
57.68%
20.69%
10.80%
2.11
7.26
23.12
1.84
20.07
15.10%
30.24%
92.48%
11.48% 133.78%
1.11
11.95
13.50
1.84
25.33
7.92%
49.78%
53.98%
11.48% 168.84%
0.78
15.93
2.82
0.02
6.32
3.53%
113.80%
21.68%
0.09%
35.35%
3.78
20.42
4.85
0.02
9.95
17.18%
145.87%
37.34%
0.09%
55.66%
161.83
254.79
841.31
733.69
149.34
19.74%
30.44% 184.50% 124.99%
18.71%
293.47
418.56
581.85
733.69
291.44
35.79%
50.01% 127.60% 124.99%
36.52%
245.25
7.63
258.65
134.19
309.92
39.37%
1.14%
32.62%
12.58%
52.18%
320.80
91.43
365.52
134.19
445.51
51.49%
13.69%
46.09%
12.58%
75.00%
154.03
97.92
109.48
29.44
370.10
25.13%
10.25%
10.60%
1.86%
27.54%
0.62
255.86
294.19
29.44
224.01
0.10%
26.79%
28.48%
1.86%
16.67%
Jun-05
25.36
181.11%
25.36
181.11%
2.07
21.71%
2.07
21.71%
60.42
37.07%
60.42
37.07%
138.29
56.67%
138.29
56.67%
21.42
26.44%
21.42
26.44%
713.11
107.72%
713.11
107.72%
25.14
89.80%
25.14
89.80%
46.46
129.07%
46.46
129.07%
9.98
31.17%
9.98
31.17%
10.49
61.72%
10.49
61.72%
8.77
48.72%
8.77
48.72%
21.11
105.55%
21.11
105.55%
3.77
21.99%
3.77
21.99%
0.04
0.09%
0.04
0.09%
22.18
130.50%
22.18
130.50%
30.92
31.88%
30.92
31.88%
3.75
11.35%
3.75
11.35%
87.97
63.29%
87.97
63.29%
6.13
18.02%
6.13
18.02%
47.74
530.43%
47.74
530.43%
4.52
17.37%
4.52
17.37%
31.52
56.28%
31.52
56.28%
14.02
24.59%
14.02
24.59%
36.45
75.94%
36.45
75.94%
4.51
12.53%
4.51
12.53%
3.81
4.28%
3.81
4.28%
1.59
2.76%
1.59
2.76%
3.16
8.10%
3.16
8.10%
17.79
63.54%
17.79
63.54%
55.48
57.19%
55.48
57.19%
12.12
28.20%
12.12
28.20%
1.50
12.54%
1.50
12.54%
8.31
59.32%
8.31
59.32%
17.61
48.91%
17.61
48.91%
9.00
64.30%
9.00
64.30%
5.07
29.81%
5.07
29.81%
12.76
49.08%
12.76
49.08%
346.11
45.66%
346.11
45.66%
179.15
15.47%
179.15
15.47%
661.98
43.75%
661.98
43.75%
Averages
205
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
13.60
8.33
Holdout
MAPE
66.04%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
13.60
11.30
4.27
61.29%
188.00
82.20
66.34%
139.20
106.50
57.93%
87.40
34.07
56.92%
991.13
339.22
38.69%
39.20
22.77
92.99%
45.30
32.45
87.75%
15.30
8.70
43.53%
56.30
21.58
78.60%
33.99
20.14
55.66%
44.60
17.60
55.09%
18.09
5.60
26.51%
69.60
26.86
75.80%
42.50
11.30
5.14
64.12%
76.79
58.03%
139.20
106.50
57.93%
87.40
32.94
54.13%
991.13
370.12
41.54%
39.20
22.77
92.99%
45.30
31.62
85.40%
15.30
8.78
43.82%
56.30
20.93
78.17%
33.99
22.20
62.72%
44.60
17.18
52.54%
18.09
5.57
26.98%
69.60
22.39
59.65%
101.94 334.38%
32.18
14.41
42.09%
115.48
42.42
53.06%
34.40
11.80
36.53%
22.70
11.31
98.95%
81.20
36.14
58.97%
28.60
12.94
36.60%
115.48
42.24
54.45%
8.62
26.74%
34.40
27.80
27.11 149.72%
58.70
30.56
49.48%
55.90
22.69
53.30%
22.70
11.43 103.23%
27.80
26.67 151.35%
58.70
30.91
53.31%
25.69
62.42%
55.90
116.37 213.19%
43.00
33.20
98.82%
63.30
26.35
42.49%
73.00
33.55
85.47%
49.90
16.98
45.90%
16.10
17.03 145.28%
20.70
26.16
42.85%
34.00
21.60
84.56%
17.80
7.44
38.59%
9.87
5.36
33.99%
43.14
17.90
41.09%
15.30
5.97
30.95%
21.94
10.05
44.91%
24.40
8.43
46.56%
514.60
419.86
87.41%
485.30
213.68
32.28%
601.30
297.00
33.75%
76.70
108.66 198.02%
43.00
34.86 109.91%
63.30
31.27
49.85%
73.00
31.91
82.06%
49.90
16.93
48.34%
16.10
17.04 144.03%
20.70
28.20
46.87%
34.00
21.07
82.67%
17.80
7.60
39.02%
9.87
4.83
28.48%
43.14
19.31
41.49%
15.30
5.91
30.54%
21.94
10.03
46.06%
24.40
9.48
50.91%
514.60
425.86
81.94%
485.30
272.04
42.99%
601.30
108.27
101.42 344.36%
56.31%
28.60
76.70
72.15%
188.00
42.50
81.20
9.19
57.54
72.13% 108.27
263.62
58.92
28.48%
72.33%

Jul-04
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Aug-04
Sep-04
6.33
45.19%
6.33
45.19%
5.73
38.19%
5.73
38.19%
165.51
51.56%
165.51
51.56%
129.12
48.00%
129.12
48.00%
55.93
49.06%
55.93
49.06%
103.29
9.01%
103.29
9.01%
2.80
11.21%
2.80
11.21%
6.12
29.14%
6.12
29.14%
14.02
53.92%
14.02
53.92%
44.47
222.35%
44.47
222.35%
6.95
18.30%
6.95
18.30%
2.51
8.96%
2.51
8.96%
3.75
24.99%
3.75
24.99%
4.73
4.98%
4.73
4.98%
22.26
60.17%
22.26
60.17%
10.22
15.97%
10.22
15.97%
9.27
35.67%
9.27
35.67%
42.12
32.65%
42.12
32.65%
5.38
17.36%
5.38
17.36%
8.85
55.34%
8.85
55.34%
8.83
42.03%
8.83
42.03%
6.61
8.58%
6.61
8.58%
0.20
0.42%
0.20
0.42%
12.23
14.39%
12.23
14.39%
17.43
35.57%
17.43
35.57%
21.04
30.95%
21.04
30.95%
64.19
123.45%
64.19
123.45%
20.91
52.28%
20.91
52.28%
11.75
90.37%
11.75
90.37%
17.59
39.97%
17.59
39.97%
16.84
76.56%
16.84
76.56%
4.97
62.11%
4.97
62.11%
4.24
30.27%
4.24
30.27%
29.23
42.99%
29.23
42.99%
4.36
33.50%
4.36
33.50%
20.96
58.21%
20.96
58.21%
21.08
55.48%
21.08
55.48%
306.25
40.35%
306.25
40.35%
164.67
24.69%
164.67
24.69%
193.78
26.36%
193.78
26.36%
Oct-04
15.47
220.94%
15.47
220.94%
0.89
11.17%
0.89
11.17%
36.16
18.17%
36.16
18.17%
141.41
74.04%
141.41
74.04%
24.17
57.54%
24.17
57.54%
166.35
15.73%
166.35
15.73%
60.16
462.75%
60.16
462.75%
55.70
278.50%
55.70
278.50%
2.40
12.89%
2.40
12.89%
33.78
125.12%
33.78
125.12%
0.12
0.43%
0.12
0.43%
39.54
119.83%
39.54
119.83%
8.47
44.60%
8.47
44.60%
3.85
6.11%
3.85
6.11%
46.02
83.67%
46.02
83.67%
25.02
36.79%
25.02
36.79%
14.09
48.59%
14.09
48.59%
9.47
8.90%
9.47
8.90%
6.60
16.49%
6.60
16.49%
10.12
55.42%
10.12
55.42%
42.49
223.64%
42.49
223.64%
22.96
31.88%
22.96
31.88%
1.87
6.43%
1.87
6.43%
338.30
573.40%
338.30
573.40%
30.80
34.61%
30.80
34.61%
129.06
248.19%
129.06
248.19%
143.48
358.70%
143.48
358.70%
101.54
225.17%
101.54
225.17%
11.10
65.29%
11.10
65.29%
2.40
7.07%
2.40
7.07%
32.33
190.17%
32.33
190.17%
5.25
35.02%
5.25
35.02%
0.58
3.64%
0.58
3.64%
36.67
85.27%
36.67
85.27%
0.68
3.39%
0.68
3.39%
0.24
0.78%
0.24
0.78%
16.76
59.86%
16.76
59.86%
310.02
142.86%
310.02
142.86%
448.91
39.90%
448.91
39.90%
198.16
35.14%
198.16
35.14%
Nov-04
8.26
43.46%
12.35
64.98%
15.72
196.44%
19.27
240.91%
110.11
30.09%
71.73
19.60%
105.42
35.74%
105.42
35.74%
33.43
43.42%
26.89
34.93%
563.13
38.68%
429.20
29.48%
12.96
28.17%
12.96
28.17%
22.72
23.91%
11.88
12.50%
4.28
47.55%
6.27
69.68%
33.67
64.75%
30.92
59.46%
16.28
60.29%
14.67
54.34%
13.95
32.44%
22.49
52.30%
8.22
39.12%
6.30
29.99%
34.93
32.95%
24.27
22.89%
130.31
95.12%
129.31
94.39%
5.10
6.89%
5.24
7.08%
30.24
59.30%
27.13
53.19%
52.01
77.63%
69.87
104.28%
10.63
24.73%
5.78
13.44%
30.23
188.91%
37.16
232.25%
79.07
608.22%
92.88
714.45%
67.83
188.41%
83.40
231.67%
17.49
26.11%
10.07
15.02%
306.56
557.38%
360.79
655.98%
101.02
420.91%
119.77
499.05%
22.66
31.48%
15.26
21.20%
20.25
32.66%
32.59
52.56%
5.40
18.02%
10.72
35.72%
49.92
87.57%
48.85
85.71%
19.50
47.55%
16.27
39.69%
41.64
77.11%
39.78
73.67%
6.68
35.15%
4.83
25.42%
2.18
21.77%
4.00
40.03%
47.86
113.95%
61.34
146.04%
8.71
43.54%
7.01
35.07%
6.65
23.74%
3.44
12.30%
9.71
34.68%
6.97
24.88%
392.22
59.79%
549.45
83.76%
290.38
111.26%
373.09
142.95%
215.72
24.43%
115.63
13.10%
Dec-04
4.70
39.20%
6.16
51.36%
12.21
305.29%
8.97
224.23%
116.14
163.57%
78.71
110.86%
48.75
23.90%
48.75
23.90%
4.70
11.18%
4.64
11.05%
79.55
7.66%
144.10
13.87%
31.99
63.98%
31.99
63.98%
10.63
18.65%
2.90
5.08%
1.16
11.63%
1.07
10.70%
7.61
18.13%
14.49
34.50%
7.14
23.02%
11.91
38.42%
14.48
51.70%
5.98
21.36%
2.49
12.46%
5.99
29.97%
64.93
324.65%
47.94
239.72%
39.55
68.19%
43.24
74.56%
7.38
9.23%
10.10
12.62%
1.67
9.84%
2.06
12.13%
7.61
9.27%
22.50
27.42%
28.18
156.54%
18.94
105.23%
22.39
117.82%
14.11
74.26%
25.73
91.89%
14.98
53.51%
17.79
24.70%
28.63
39.76%
48.49
64.66%
53.79
71.73%
533.29
751.11%
412.43
580.89%
80.03
177.84%
55.02
122.27%
29.71
25.84%
46.77
40.67%
50.09
68.62%
25.47
34.90%
16.49
32.34%
3.00
5.87%
4.10
136.65%
2.68
89.32%
10.74
29.05%
15.99
43.24%
33.19
59.27%
37.75
67.42%
9.88
42.97%
12.51
54.38%
7.00
63.59%
3.40
30.87%
16.32
37.09%
4.25
9.67%
6.75
37.52%
9.00
50.02%
15.82
63.28%
17.66
70.62%
9.87
75.90%
5.29
40.72%
1,171.91
333.88%
867.33
247.10%
51.81
8.73%
77.20
13.01%
1,020.87
145.63%
676.50
96.50%
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
14.88
3.04
3.63
2.75
8.31
70.86%
15.22%
20.19%
27.48%
83.06%
16.11
0.50
0.69
2.75
11.05
76.69%
2.51%
3.85%
27.48% 110.52%
2.38
1.68
0.39
2.89
0.22
11.31%
16.81%
4.32%
41.33%
1.69%
6.10
3.43
1.49
2.89
1.70
29.05%
34.34%
16.55%
41.33%
13.06%
16.64
10.28
99.45
100.88
82.63
14.35%
6.27% 130.85% 131.01%
43.03%
9.89
36.42
64.36
100.88
123.82
8.52%
22.21%
84.68% 131.01%
64.49%
101.95
135.55
158.71
255.47
409.26
98.03%
105.08% 101.74% 156.73% 282.25%
101.95
135.55
158.71
255.47
409.26
98.03%
105.08% 101.74% 156.73% 282.25%
20.62
38.23
17.99
32.01
48.77
41.24%
49.01%
35.28%
48.44% 116.13%
6.50
55.67
4.19
32.01
62.39
13.00%
71.37%
8.22%
48.44% 148.55%
664.60
202.33
114.67
730.47
473.88
86.42%
22.09%
11.59%
89.52%
49.02%
377.88
370.08
289.53
730.47
689.96
49.14%
40.40%
29.28%
89.52%
71.38%
6.04
21.07
3.13
5.54
82.72
22.37%
46.83%
7.45%
14.21% 275.72%
6.04
21.07
3.13
5.54
82.72
22.37%
46.83%
7.45%
14.21% 275.72%
18.32
48.34
21.69
109.38
45.58
87.22%
53.71%
80.34% 266.79% 162.78%
10.45
42.09
11.95
109.38
56.61
49.77%
46.77%
44.27% 266.79% 202.20%
18.88
14.07
8.45
5.64
7.73
67.42%
58.61%
40.26%
33.16%
36.80%
20.70
12.58
10.96
5.64
5.74
73.93%
52.41%
52.21%
33.16%
27.32%
6.10
16.96
13.46
9.18
20.91
15.23%
53.00%
37.38%
48.34%
53.62%
12.90
24.31
17.97
9.18
18.20
32.18%
75.95%
49.91%
48.34%
46.66%
1.59
16.50
25.96
62.09
62.17
9.37%
31.74%
48.07% 147.84% 188.41%
4.67
11.18
31.57
62.09
76.45
27.49%
21.50%
58.46% 147.84% 231.67%
44.77
45.08
19.44
4.86
20.54
109.21%
92.00%
74.78%
13.14%
82.16%
27.62
59.19
10.35
4.86
27.37
67.36%
120.80%
39.82%
13.14% 109.48%
8.87
3.89
13.37
0.51
4.87
38.56%
12.56%
51.42%
2.99%
27.33%
2.49
0.17
15.89
0.51
8.28
10.85%
0.56%
61.13%
2.99%
46.43%
142.53
12.30
14.37
23.83
8.63
316.73%
8.73%
43.53% 125.40%
15.06%
105.02
35.30
4.89
23.83
18.53
233.39%
25.03%
14.82% 125.40%
32.32%
33.71
260.07
242.53
207.69
114.67
68.79% 1000.27% 757.91% 576.92% 819.10%
17.17
302.98
187.63
207.69
133.98
35.03% 1165.31% 586.33% 576.92% 956.97%
27.01
109.41
55.93
59.10
15.82
30.01%
195.37% 180.43%
86.92%
18.19%
39.61
134.22
38.55
59.10
31.25
44.01%
239.68% 124.35%
86.92%
35.92%
51.40
22.99
10.87
12.19
7.32
190.54%
49.97%
51.76%
28.36%
16.64%
35.73
33.33
4.50
12.19
1.82
132.43%
72.46%
21.41%
28.36%
4.14%
9.99
10.33
15.99
84.65
9.71
15.86%
21.51%
27.61%
69.38%
24.28%
4.61
19.08
24.38
84.65
5.17
7.31%
39.74%
42.09%
69.38%
12.93%
20.70
2.71
1.53
10.65
28.01
59.15%
7.13%
6.11%
31.32%
34.58%
9.56
2.58
3.78
10.65
20.06
27.32%
6.80%
15.11%
31.32%
24.77%
13.87
15.09
3.89
5.71
29.92
77.04%
39.71%
21.63%
27.18% 332.45%
7.49
23.05
6.71
5.71
35.76
41.63%
60.66%
37.30%
27.18% 397.31%
34.39
14.92
17.18
39.01
22.87
66.14%
40.32% 114.53% 354.63%
69.31%
37.91
11.60
10.74
39.01
21.35
72.91%
31.36%
71.62% 354.63%
64.70%
23.60
53.84
12.71
44.12
16.73
34.71%
56.09%
27.04%
70.03%
10.66%
32.48
47.52
0.77
44.12
4.31
47.76%
49.50%
1.63%
70.03%
2.74%
7.38
100.98
1.02
29.97
3.62
14.76%
360.64%
2.03%
33.67%
5.75%
15.90
120.33
10.81
29.97
5.29
31.81%
429.74%
21.63%
33.67%
8.39%
157.31
24.12
2.08
7.01
11.35
683.95%
38.91%
4.62%
5.19%
7.88%
121.25
37.04
7.34
7.01
8.55
527.16%
59.75%
16.30%
5.19%
5.94%
3.31
7.57
8.88
32.76
96.72
8.27%
7.72%
16.15%
69.70% 420.53%
5.35
6.00
3.89
32.76
114.68
13.39%
6.12%
7.08%
69.70% 498.61%
1.79
26.76
6.98
38.74
24.71
3.14%
65.27%
10.46%
62.38%
32.52%
9.97
36.92
18.92
38.74
39.82
17.49%
90.06%
28.37%
62.38%
52.40%
13.33
19.90
37.10
63.21
26.99
28.97%
27.26% 137.40% 263.39%
65.82%
1.46
11.93
24.28
63.21
37.18
3.18%
16.34%
89.92% 263.39%
90.69%
6.42
36.91
9.75
3.52
10.37
19.45%
167.79%
28.69%
8.23%
21.61%
1.46
45.75
1.00
3.52
4.73
4.44%
207.96%
2.95%
8.23%
9.85%
8.63
22.96
4.42
32.47
14.55
172.67%
574.11%
73.72% 129.86% 132.25%
5.91
27.01
2.34
32.47
18.38
118.14%
675.23%
38.98% 129.86% 167.09%
9.97
22.16
76.26
10.28
43.38
29.32%
51.54%
79.44%
19.40%
77.47%
14.77
19.04
80.21
10.28
58.29
43.45%
44.27%
83.55%
19.40% 104.09%
13.84
38.25
10.50
4.83
15.77
92.28%
239.04%
38.23%
9.30%
41.51%
8.07
46.38
2.91
4.83
12.44
53.83%
289.89%
10.58%
9.30%
32.73%
7.84
14.20
3.51
8.32
16.57
43.55%
37.37%
27.02%
30.82%
75.33%
9.87
10.63
0.21
8.32
22.36
54.84%
27.97%
1.62%
30.82% 101.63%
8.51
12.30
0.37
9.70
1.52
106.37%
47.30%
1.68%
69.26%
8.43%
5.21
10.24
4.70
9.70
4.45
65.09%
39.39%
21.35%
69.26%
24.70%
24.83
7.49
21.38
0.14
24.92
107.94%
15.94%
41.91%
0.20%
33.22%
15.26
1.57
27.30
0.14
39.90
66.35%
3.33%
53.53%
0.20%
53.21%
1.27
4.88
12.63
7.73
3.82
10.58%
28.71%
45.10%
27.61%
15.91%
1.38
3.06
15.70
7.73
0.79
11.54%
18.02%
56.08%
27.61%
3.29%
0.49
4.50
19.05
2.98
16.63
3.49%
18.73%
76.18%
18.64% 110.87%
3.19
8.77
10.24
2.98
21.38
22.79%
36.54%
40.95%
18.64% 142.50%
7.44
2.92
7.10
9.19
3.83
33.83%
20.84%
54.60%
48.35%
21.41%
10.35
5.45
8.28
9.19
1.72
47.07%
38.96%
63.68%
48.35%
9.63%
12.30
512.80 1,126.97 1,014.61
334.90
1.50%
61.27% 247.14% 172.85%
41.97%
173.84
715.26
810.38 1,014.61
504.83
21.20%
85.46% 177.71% 172.85%
63.26%
173.79
119.28
154.87
52.06
489.54
27.90%
17.86%
19.53%
4.88%
82.41%
263.63
237.37
282.50
52.06
652.07
42.32%
35.53%
35.62%
4.88% 109.78%
310.08
331.52
95.87
377.73
169.56
50.58%
34.71%
9.28%
23.92%
12.62%
125.46
524.50
129.90
377.73
6.60
20.47%
54.92%
12.58%
23.92%
0.49%
Jun-05
33.79
241.39%
33.79
241.39%
2.27
23.80%
2.27
23.80%
73.33
44.99%
73.33
44.99%
303.04
124.20%
303.04
124.20%
29.90
36.91%
29.90
36.91%
811.04
122.51%
811.04
122.51%
32.65
116.62%
32.65
116.62%
65.68
182.43%
65.68
182.43%
10.94
34.18%
10.94
34.18%
1.43
8.44%
1.43
8.44%
10.09
56.03%
10.09
56.03%
24.12
120.62%
24.12
120.62%
4.04
23.56%
4.04
23.56%
1.30
2.46%
1.30
2.46%
23.95
140.91%
23.95
140.91%
30.04
30.97%
30.04
30.97%
0.17
0.51%
0.17
0.51%
106.67
76.74%
106.67
76.74%
7.16
21.04%
7.16
21.04%
71.44
793.76%
71.44
793.76%
6.76
25.98%
6.76
25.98%
42.79
76.41%
42.79
76.41%
18.56
32.57%
18.56
32.57%
51.59
107.48%
51.59
107.48%
12.18
33.85%
12.18
33.85%
21.43
24.08%
21.43
24.08%
4.55
7.90%
4.55
7.90%
2.07
5.30%
2.07
5.30%
17.43
62.26%
17.43
62.26%
47.49
48.96%
47.49
48.96%
11.73
27.28%
11.73
27.28%
1.16
9.70%
1.16
9.70%
14.98
106.99%
14.98
106.99%
26.30
73.05%
26.30
73.05%
11.16
79.69%
11.16
79.69%
3.27
19.26%
3.27
19.26%
18.15
69.79%
18.15
69.79%
279.46
36.87%
279.46
36.87%
17.97
1.55%
17.97
1.55%
495.42
32.74%
495.42
32.74%
Averages
206
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
13.60
10.12
Holdout
MAPE
80.70%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
13.60
11.30
4.44
65.04%
188.00
81.11
63.39%
139.20
11.30
5.27
67.26%
188.00
76.08
55.61%
139.20
30.57
48.82%
991.13
390.93
45.22%
39.20
25.91 104.93%
45.30
40.42 118.35%
15.30
8.76
39.64%
56.30
18.76
64.64%
33.99
20.89
58.35%
44.60
22.93
70.48%
18.09
5.85
27.76%
69.60
31.14
88.06%
30.23
47.91%
991.13
411.19
47.03%
39.20
25.91 104.93%
45.30
37.28 111.75%
15.30
9.03
42.04%
56.30
20.77
70.29%
33.99
22.97
65.45%
44.60
22.40
67.37%
18.09
5.59
27.51%
69.60
26.97
70.71%
112.08 367.11%
34.50
16.02
49.12%
115.48
34.86
36.38%
34.40
12.15
37.45%
22.70
21.15 170.92%
81.20
38.33
63.43%
28.60
14.03
40.89%
115.48
38.85
42.14%
9.05
27.89%
34.40
27.80
29.12 163.67%
58.70
30.90
52.85%
55.90
22.96
54.70%
22.70
22.04 177.51%
27.80
28.66 165.48%
58.70
31.36
56.00%
26.68
65.14%
55.90
144.38 274.43%
43.00
39.07 122.51%
63.30
32.29
73.00
44.31 111.42%
49.90
21.34
135.65 254.65%
43.00
39.79 132.02%
63.30
37.79
20.70
25.98
42.98%
34.00
21.89
85.07%
17.80
7.84
39.90%
9.87
6.14
45.93%
43.14
23.51
55.16%
15.30
6.20
32.56%
21.94
9.06
39.32%
73.00
40.84 104.10%
49.90
19.47
16.10
17.79 152.22%
20.70
28.23
47.37%
34.00
21.31
83.14%
17.80
8.01
40.35%
9.87
6.15
43.16%
43.14
24.20
53.36%
546.14 113.85%
485.30
196.33
33.87%
601.30
340.87
39.54%
15.30
6.09
31.82%
21.94
9.21
42.26%
24.40
10.32
45.84%
514.60
553.14 107.14%
485.30
256.95
601.30
66.95
55.78%
47.47%
514.60
108.27
61.58%
57.89%
17.73 152.48%
10.60
76.70
53.43%
16.10
24.40
111.42 377.43%
61.08%
28.60
76.70
178.87 104.97%
87.40
42.50
81.20
84.49%
178.87 104.97%
87.40
42.50
10.52
83.04% 108.27
284.37
67.57
45.02%
31.62%
82.87%

Jul-04
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Error
Percentage
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Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Aug-04
Sep-04
6.33
45.19%
6.33
45.19%
5.73
38.19%
5.73
38.19%
165.51
51.56%
165.51
51.56%
129.12
48.00%
129.12
48.00%
55.93
49.06%
55.93
49.06%
103.29
9.01%
103.29
9.01%
2.80
11.21%
2.80
11.21%
6.12
29.14%
6.12
29.14%
14.02
53.92%
14.02
53.92%
44.47
222.35%
44.47
222.35%
6.95
18.30%
6.95
18.30%
2.51
8.96%
2.51
8.96%
3.75
24.99%
3.75
24.99%
4.73
4.98%
4.73
4.98%
22.26
60.17%
22.26
60.17%
10.22
15.97%
10.22
15.97%
9.27
35.67%
9.27
35.67%
42.12
32.65%
42.12
32.65%
5.38
17.36%
5.38
17.36%
8.85
55.34%
8.85
55.34%
8.83
42.03%
8.83
42.03%
6.61
8.58%
6.61
8.58%
0.20
0.42%
0.20
0.42%
12.23
14.39%
12.23
14.39%
17.43
35.57%
17.43
35.57%
21.04
30.95%
21.04
30.95%
64.19
123.45%
64.19
123.45%
20.91
52.28%
20.91
52.28%
11.75
90.37%
11.75
90.37%
17.59
39.97%
17.59
39.97%
16.84
76.56%
16.84
76.56%
4.97
62.11%
4.97
62.11%
4.24
30.27%
4.24
30.27%
29.23
42.99%
29.23
42.99%
4.36
33.50%
4.36
33.50%
20.96
58.21%
20.96
58.21%
21.08
55.48%
21.08
55.48%
306.25
40.35%
306.25
40.35%
164.67
24.69%
164.67
24.69%
193.78
26.36%
193.78
26.36%
Oct-04
15.47
220.94%
15.47
220.94%
0.89
11.17%
0.89
11.17%
36.16
18.17%
36.16
18.17%
141.41
74.04%
141.41
74.04%
24.17
57.54%
24.17
57.54%
166.35
15.73%
166.35
15.73%
60.16
462.75%
60.16
462.75%
55.70
278.50%
55.70
278.50%
2.40
12.89%
2.40
12.89%
33.78
125.12%
33.78
125.12%
0.12
0.43%
0.12
0.43%
39.54
119.83%
39.54
119.83%
8.47
44.60%
8.47
44.60%
3.85
6.11%
3.85
6.11%
46.02
83.67%
46.02
83.67%
25.02
36.79%
25.02
36.79%
14.09
48.59%
14.09
48.59%
9.47
8.90%
9.47
8.90%
6.60
16.49%
6.60
16.49%
10.12
55.42%
10.12
55.42%
42.49
223.64%
42.49
223.64%
22.96
31.88%
22.96
31.88%
1.87
6.43%
1.87
6.43%
338.30
573.40%
338.30
573.40%
30.80
34.61%
30.80
34.61%
129.06
248.19%
129.06
248.19%
143.48
358.70%
143.48
358.70%
101.54
225.17%
101.54
225.17%
11.10
65.29%
11.10
65.29%
2.40
7.07%
2.40
7.07%
32.33
190.17%
32.33
190.17%
5.25
35.02%
5.25
35.02%
0.58
3.64%
0.58
3.64%
36.67
85.27%
36.67
85.27%
0.68
3.39%
0.68
3.39%
0.24
0.78%
0.24
0.78%
16.76
59.86%
16.76
59.86%
310.02
142.86%
310.02
142.86%
448.91
39.90%
448.91
39.90%
198.16
35.14%
198.16
35.14%
Nov-04
8.26
43.46%
12.35
64.98%
15.72
196.44%
19.27
240.91%
110.11
30.09%
71.73
19.60%
105.42
35.74%
105.42
35.74%
33.43
43.42%
26.89
34.93%
563.13
38.68%
429.20
29.48%
12.96
28.17%
12.96
28.17%
22.72
23.91%
11.88
12.50%
4.28
47.55%
6.27
69.68%
33.67
64.75%
30.92
59.46%
16.28
60.29%
14.67
54.34%
13.95
32.44%
22.49
52.30%
8.22
39.12%
6.30
29.99%
34.93
32.95%
24.27
22.89%
130.31
95.12%
129.31
94.39%
5.10
6.89%
5.24
7.08%
30.24
59.30%
27.13
53.19%
52.01
77.63%
69.87
104.28%
10.63
24.73%
5.78
13.44%
30.23
188.91%
37.16
232.25%
79.07
608.22%
92.88
714.45%
67.83
188.41%
83.40
231.67%
17.49
26.11%
10.07
15.02%
306.56
557.38%
360.79
655.98%
101.02
420.91%
119.77
499.05%
22.66
31.48%
15.26
21.20%
20.25
32.66%
32.59
52.56%
5.40
18.02%
10.72
35.72%
49.92
87.57%
48.85
85.71%
19.50
47.55%
16.27
39.69%
41.64
77.11%
39.78
73.67%
6.68
35.15%
4.83
25.42%
2.18
21.77%
4.00
40.03%
47.86
113.95%
61.34
146.04%
8.71
43.54%
7.01
35.07%
6.65
23.74%
3.44
12.30%
9.71
34.68%
6.97
24.88%
392.22
59.79%
549.45
83.76%
290.38
111.26%
373.09
142.95%
215.72
24.43%
115.63
13.10%
Dec-04
4.70
39.20%
6.16
51.36%
12.21
305.29%
8.97
224.23%
116.14
163.57%
78.71
110.86%
48.75
23.90%
48.75
23.90%
4.70
11.18%
4.64
11.05%
79.55
7.66%
144.10
13.87%
31.99
63.98%
31.99
63.98%
10.63
18.65%
2.90
5.08%
1.16
11.63%
1.07
10.70%
7.61
18.13%
14.49
34.50%
7.14
23.02%
11.91
38.42%
14.48
51.70%
5.98
21.36%
2.49
12.46%
5.99
29.97%
64.93
324.65%
47.94
239.72%
39.55
68.19%
43.24
74.56%
7.38
9.23%
10.10
12.62%
1.67
9.84%
2.06
12.13%
7.61
9.27%
22.50
27.42%
28.18
156.54%
18.94
105.23%
22.39
117.82%
14.11
74.26%
25.73
91.89%
14.98
53.51%
17.79
24.70%
28.63
39.76%
48.49
64.66%
53.79
71.73%
533.29
751.11%
412.43
580.89%
80.03
177.84%
55.02
122.27%
29.71
25.84%
46.77
40.67%
50.09
68.62%
25.47
34.90%
16.49
32.34%
3.00
5.87%
4.10
136.65%
2.68
89.32%
10.74
29.05%
15.99
43.24%
33.19
59.27%
37.75
67.42%
9.88
42.97%
12.51
54.38%
7.00
63.59%
3.40
30.87%
16.32
37.09%
4.25
9.67%
6.75
37.52%
9.00
50.02%
15.82
63.28%
17.66
70.62%
9.87
75.90%
5.29
40.72%
1,171.91
333.88%
867.33
247.10%
51.81
8.73%
77.20
13.01%
1,020.87
145.63%
676.50
96.50%
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
14.88
3.04
3.63
2.75
8.31
70.86%
15.22%
20.19%
27.48%
83.06%
16.11
0.50
0.69
2.75
11.05
76.69%
2.51%
3.85%
27.48% 110.52%
2.38
1.68
0.39
2.89
0.22
11.31%
16.81%
4.32%
41.33%
1.69%
6.10
3.43
1.49
2.89
1.70
29.05%
34.34%
16.55%
41.33%
13.06%
16.64
10.28
99.45
100.88
82.63
14.35%
6.27% 130.85% 131.01%
43.03%
9.89
36.42
64.36
100.88
123.82
8.52%
22.21%
84.68% 131.01%
64.49%
101.95
135.55
158.71
255.47
409.26
98.03%
105.08% 101.74% 156.73% 282.25%
101.95
135.55
158.71
255.47
409.26
98.03%
105.08% 101.74% 156.73% 282.25%
20.62
38.23
17.99
32.01
48.77
41.24%
49.01%
35.28%
48.44% 116.13%
6.50
55.67
4.19
32.01
62.39
13.00%
71.37%
8.22%
48.44% 148.55%
664.60
202.33
114.67
730.47
473.88
86.42%
22.09%
11.59%
89.52%
49.02%
377.88
370.08
289.53
730.47
689.96
49.14%
40.40%
29.28%
89.52%
71.38%
6.04
21.07
3.13
5.54
82.72
22.37%
46.83%
7.45%
14.21% 275.72%
6.04
21.07
3.13
5.54
82.72
22.37%
46.83%
7.45%
14.21% 275.72%
18.32
48.34
21.69
109.38
45.58
87.22%
53.71%
80.34% 266.79% 162.78%
10.45
42.09
11.95
109.38
56.61
49.77%
46.77%
44.27% 266.79% 202.20%
18.88
14.07
8.45
5.64
7.73
67.42%
58.61%
40.26%
33.16%
36.80%
20.70
12.58
10.96
5.64
5.74
73.93%
52.41%
52.21%
33.16%
27.32%
6.10
16.96
13.46
9.18
20.91
15.23%
53.00%
37.38%
48.34%
53.62%
12.90
24.31
17.97
9.18
18.20
32.18%
75.95%
49.91%
48.34%
46.66%
1.59
16.50
25.96
62.09
62.17
9.37%
31.74%
48.07% 147.84% 188.41%
4.67
11.18
31.57
62.09
76.45
27.49%
21.50%
58.46% 147.84% 231.67%
44.77
45.08
19.44
4.86
20.54
109.21%
92.00%
74.78%
13.14%
82.16%
27.62
59.19
10.35
4.86
27.37
67.36%
120.80%
39.82%
13.14% 109.48%
8.87
3.89
13.37
0.51
4.87
38.56%
12.56%
51.42%
2.99%
27.33%
2.49
0.17
15.89
0.51
8.28
10.85%
0.56%
61.13%
2.99%
46.43%
142.53
12.30
14.37
23.83
8.63
316.73%
8.73%
43.53% 125.40%
15.06%
105.02
35.30
4.89
23.83
18.53
233.39%
25.03%
14.82% 125.40%
32.32%
33.71
260.07
242.53
207.69
114.67
68.79% 1000.27% 757.91% 576.92% 819.10%
17.17
302.98
187.63
207.69
133.98
35.03% 1165.31% 586.33% 576.92% 956.97%
27.01
109.41
55.93
59.10
15.82
30.01%
195.37% 180.43%
86.92%
18.19%
39.61
134.22
38.55
59.10
31.25
44.01%
239.68% 124.35%
86.92%
35.92%
51.40
22.99
10.87
12.19
7.32
190.54%
49.97%
51.76%
28.36%
16.64%
35.73
33.33
4.50
12.19
1.82
132.43%
72.46%
21.41%
28.36%
4.14%
9.99
10.33
15.99
84.65
9.71
15.86%
21.51%
27.61%
69.38%
24.28%
4.61
19.08
24.38
84.65
5.17
7.31%
39.74%
42.09%
69.38%
12.93%
20.70
2.71
1.53
10.65
28.01
59.15%
7.13%
6.11%
31.32%
34.58%
9.56
2.58
3.78
10.65
20.06
27.32%
6.80%
15.11%
31.32%
24.77%
13.87
15.09
3.89
5.71
29.92
77.04%
39.71%
21.63%
27.18% 332.45%
7.49
23.05
6.71
5.71
35.76
41.63%
60.66%
37.30%
27.18% 397.31%
34.39
14.92
17.18
39.01
22.87
66.14%
40.32% 114.53% 354.63%
69.31%
37.91
11.60
10.74
39.01
21.35
72.91%
31.36%
71.62% 354.63%
64.70%
23.60
53.84
12.71
44.12
16.73
34.71%
56.09%
27.04%
70.03%
10.66%
32.48
47.52
0.77
44.12
4.31
47.76%
49.50%
1.63%
70.03%
2.74%
7.38
100.98
1.02
29.97
3.62
14.76%
360.64%
2.03%
33.67%
5.75%
15.90
120.33
10.81
29.97
5.29
31.81%
429.74%
21.63%
33.67%
8.39%
157.31
24.12
2.08
7.01
11.35
683.95%
38.91%
4.62%
5.19%
7.88%
121.25
37.04
7.34
7.01
8.55
527.16%
59.75%
16.30%
5.19%
5.94%
3.31
7.57
8.88
32.76
96.72
8.27%
7.72%
16.15%
69.70% 420.53%
5.35
6.00
3.89
32.76
114.68
13.39%
6.12%
7.08%
69.70% 498.61%
1.79
26.76
6.98
38.74
24.71
3.14%
65.27%
10.46%
62.38%
32.52%
9.97
36.92
18.92
38.74
39.82
17.49%
90.06%
28.37%
62.38%
52.40%
13.33
19.90
37.10
63.21
26.99
28.97%
27.26% 137.40% 263.39%
65.82%
1.46
11.93
24.28
63.21
37.18
3.18%
16.34%
89.92% 263.39%
90.69%
6.42
36.91
9.75
3.52
10.37
19.45%
167.79%
28.69%
8.23%
21.61%
1.46
45.75
1.00
3.52
4.73
4.44%
207.96%
2.95%
8.23%
9.85%
8.63
22.96
4.42
32.47
14.55
172.67%
574.11%
73.72% 129.86% 132.25%
5.91
27.01
2.34
32.47
18.38
118.14%
675.23%
38.98% 129.86% 167.09%
9.97
22.16
76.26
10.28
43.38
29.32%
51.54%
79.44%
19.40%
77.47%
14.77
19.04
80.21
10.28
58.29
43.45%
44.27%
83.55%
19.40% 104.09%
13.84
38.25
10.50
4.83
15.77
92.28%
239.04%
38.23%
9.30%
41.51%
8.07
46.38
2.91
4.83
12.44
53.83%
289.89%
10.58%
9.30%
32.73%
7.84
14.20
3.51
8.32
16.57
43.55%
37.37%
27.02%
30.82%
75.33%
9.87
10.63
0.21
8.32
22.36
54.84%
27.97%
1.62%
30.82% 101.63%
8.51
12.30
0.37
9.70
1.52
106.37%
47.30%
1.68%
69.26%
8.43%
5.21
10.24
4.70
9.70
4.45
65.09%
39.39%
21.35%
69.26%
24.70%
24.83
7.49
21.38
0.14
24.92
107.94%
15.94%
41.91%
0.20%
33.22%
15.26
1.57
27.30
0.14
39.90
66.35%
3.33%
53.53%
0.20%
53.21%
1.27
4.88
12.63
7.73
3.82
10.58%
28.71%
45.10%
27.61%
15.91%
1.38
3.06
15.70
7.73
0.79
11.54%
18.02%
56.08%
27.61%
3.29%
0.49
4.50
19.05
2.98
16.63
3.49%
18.73%
76.18%
18.64% 110.87%
3.19
8.77
10.24
2.98
21.38
22.79%
36.54%
40.95%
18.64% 142.50%
7.44
2.92
7.10
9.19
3.83
33.83%
20.84%
54.60%
48.35%
21.41%
10.35
5.45
8.28
9.19
1.72
47.07%
38.96%
63.68%
48.35%
9.63%
12.30
512.80 1,126.97 1,014.61
334.90
1.50%
61.27% 247.14% 172.85%
41.97%
173.84
715.26
810.38 1,014.61
504.83
21.20%
85.46% 177.71% 172.85%
63.26%
173.79
119.28
154.87
52.06
489.54
27.90%
17.86%
19.53%
4.88%
82.41%
263.63
237.37
282.50
52.06
652.07
42.32%
35.53%
35.62%
4.88% 109.78%
310.08
331.52
95.87
377.73
169.56
50.58%
34.71%
9.28%
23.92%
12.62%
125.46
524.50
129.90
377.73
6.60
20.47%
54.92%
12.58%
23.92%
0.49%
Jun-05
33.79
241.39%
33.79
241.39%
2.27
23.80%
2.27
23.80%
73.33
44.99%
73.33
44.99%
303.04
124.20%
303.04
124.20%
29.90
36.91%
29.90
36.91%
811.04
122.51%
811.04
122.51%
32.65
116.62%
32.65
116.62%
65.68
182.43%
65.68
182.43%
10.94
34.18%
10.94
34.18%
1.43
8.44%
1.43
8.44%
10.09
56.03%
10.09
56.03%
24.12
120.62%
24.12
120.62%
4.04
23.56%
4.04
23.56%
1.30
2.46%
1.30
2.46%
23.95
140.91%
23.95
140.91%
30.04
30.97%
30.04
30.97%
0.17
0.51%
0.17
0.51%
106.67
76.74%
106.67
76.74%
7.16
21.04%
7.16
21.04%
71.44
793.76%
71.44
793.76%
6.76
25.98%
6.76
25.98%
42.79
76.41%
42.79
76.41%
18.56
32.57%
18.56
32.57%
51.59
107.48%
51.59
107.48%
12.18
33.85%
12.18
33.85%
21.43
24.08%
21.43
24.08%
4.55
7.90%
4.55
7.90%
2.07
5.30%
2.07
5.30%
17.43
62.26%
17.43
62.26%
47.49
48.96%
47.49
48.96%
11.73
27.28%
11.73
27.28%
1.16
9.70%
1.16
9.70%
14.98
106.99%
14.98
106.99%
26.30
73.05%
26.30
73.05%
11.16
79.69%
11.16
79.69%
3.27
19.26%
3.27
19.26%
18.15
69.79%
18.15
69.79%
279.46
36.87%
279.46
36.87%
17.97
1.55%
17.97
1.55%
495.42
32.74%
495.42
32.74%
Averages
207
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
13.60
10.12
Holdout
MAPE
80.70%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
13.60
11.30
4.44
65.04%
188.00
81.11
63.39%
139.20
11.30
5.27
67.26%
188.00
76.08
55.61%
139.20
30.57
48.82%
991.13
390.93
45.22%
39.20
25.91 104.93%
45.30
40.42 118.35%
15.30
8.76
39.64%
56.30
18.76
64.64%
33.99
20.89
58.35%
44.60
22.93
70.48%
18.09
5.85
27.76%
69.60
31.14
88.06%
30.23
47.91%
991.13
411.19
47.03%
39.20
25.91 104.93%
45.30
37.28 111.75%
15.30
9.03
42.04%
56.30
20.77
70.29%
33.99
22.97
65.45%
44.60
22.40
67.37%
18.09
5.59
27.51%
69.60
26.97
70.71%
112.08 367.11%
34.50
16.02
49.12%
115.48
34.86
36.38%
34.40
12.15
37.45%
22.70
21.15 170.92%
81.20
38.33
63.43%
28.60
14.03
40.89%
115.48
38.85
42.14%
9.05
27.89%
34.40
27.80
29.12 163.67%
58.70
30.90
52.85%
55.90
22.96
54.70%
22.70
22.04 177.51%
27.80
28.66 165.48%
58.70
31.36
56.00%
26.68
65.14%
55.90
144.38 274.43%
43.00
39.07 122.51%
63.30
32.29
73.00
44.31 111.42%
49.90
21.34
135.65 254.65%
43.00
39.79 132.02%
63.30
37.79
20.70
25.98
42.98%
34.00
21.89
85.07%
17.80
7.84
39.90%
9.87
6.14
45.93%
43.14
23.51
55.16%
15.30
6.20
32.56%
21.94
9.06
39.32%
73.00
40.84 104.10%
49.90
19.47
16.10
17.79 152.22%
20.70
28.23
47.37%
34.00
21.31
83.14%
17.80
8.01
40.35%
9.87
6.15
43.16%
43.14
24.20
53.36%
546.14 113.85%
485.30
196.33
33.87%
601.30
340.87
39.54%
15.30
6.09
31.82%
21.94
9.21
42.26%
24.40
10.32
45.84%
514.60
553.14 107.14%
485.30
256.95
601.30
66.95
55.78%
47.47%
514.60
108.27
61.58%
57.89%
17.73 152.48%
10.60
76.70
53.43%
16.10
24.40
111.42 377.43%
61.08%
28.60
76.70
178.87 104.97%
87.40
42.50
81.20
84.49%
178.87 104.97%
87.40
42.50
10.52
83.04% 108.27
284.37
67.57
45.02%
31.62%
82.87%
SAP Automatic Model Selection
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
SAP Procedure 2
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
3.65
10.00
1.00
6.00
6.00
26.10%
76.92%
7.14% 85.71%
31.58%
3.65
10.00
1.00
6.00
6.00
26.10%
76.92%
7.14% 85.71%
31.58%
3.62
3.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
38.57%
60.00%
33.33% 12.50%
12.50%
3.62
3.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
38.57%
60.00%
33.33% 12.50%
12.50%
169.00
30.00
134.00
17.00
199.00
103.05%
30.61%
41.74%
8.54%
54.37%
169.00
30.00
134.00
17.00
199.00
103.05%
30.61%
41.74%
8.54%
54.37%
68.86
74.00
99.00
31.00
132.00
42.47%
42.05%
36.80% 16.23%
44.75%
34.21
74.00
99.00
55.00
107.55
21.10%
42.05%
36.80% 28.80%
36.46%
84.00
10.00
22.00
45.00
2.00
200.00%
14.49%
19.30% 107.14%
2.60%
65.10
10.00
22.00
31.95
13.85
155.00%
14.49%
19.30% 76.07%
17.99%
171.00
164.00
86.00
29.77
294.00
13.32%
11.45%
7.50%
2.82%
20.19%
171.00
164.00
86.00
29.77
294.00
13.32%
11.45%
7.50%
2.82%
20.19%
48.52
11.00
11.00
24.00
10.00
159.16%
37.93%
44.00% 184.62%
21.74%
36.67
11.00
11.00
18.45
4.60
120.28%
37.93%
44.00% 141.92%
10.00%
16.00
7.00
24.00
30.00
43.00
27.12%
11.48% 114.29% 150.00%
45.26%
16.00
7.00
24.00
30.00
43.00
27.12%
11.48% 114.29% 150.00%
45.26%
1.00
10.00
11.00
5.60
7.00
11.11%
37.04%
42.31% 30.09%
77.78%
1.00
10.00
11.00
5.60
7.00
11.11%
37.04%
42.31% 30.09%
77.78%
11.00
21.00
29.00
24.00
0.00
22.00%
36.21% 145.00% 88.89%
0.00%
11.00
21.00
29.00
24.00
0.00
22.00%
36.21% 145.00% 88.89%
0.00%
35.00
27.00
2.00
6.00
10.00
145.83%
57.45%
5.26% 21.43%
37.04%
26.15
27.00
2.00
0.90
15.55
108.96%
57.45%
5.26%
3.21%
57.59%
6.00
10.00
15.00
13.00
3.00
11.11%
18.52%
53.57% 39.39%
6.98%
6.00
10.00
15.00
13.00
3.00
11.11%
18.52%
53.57% 39.39%
6.98%
1.44
3.95
2.00
3.00
4.00
9.39%
19.74%
13.33% 15.79%
19.05%
1.44
3.95
2.00
3.00
4.00
9.39%
19.74%
13.33% 15.79%
19.05%
8.29
14.73
32.00
3.00
40.00
15.13%
19.90%
33.68%
4.76%
37.74%
8.29
14.73
32.00
3.00
40.00
15.13%
19.90%
33.68%
4.76%
37.74%
13.00
55.00
15.00
5.00
85.00
30.23%
71.43%
40.54%
9.09%
62.04%
13.00
55.00
15.00
5.00
85.00
30.23%
71.43%
40.54%
9.09%
62.04%
33.00
15.00
32.00
22.00
55.00
44.00%
23.81%
50.00% 32.35%
74.32%
16.80
15.00
32.00
8.50
74.35
22.40%
23.81%
50.00% 12.50% 100.47%
0.56
11.00
0.00
2.00
22.00
1.95%
32.35%
0.00%
6.90%
43.14%
3.79
11.00
0.00
6.05
17.65
13.34%
32.35%
0.00% 20.86%
34.61%
23.00
3.00
29.00
3.58
41.00
24.47%
2.97%
22.48%
3.36%
61.19%
23.00
3.00
29.00
3.58
41.00
24.47%
2.97%
22.48%
3.36%
61.19%
0.90
9.00
4.00
5.00
8.00
2.73%
21.43%
12.90% 12.50%
18.60%
0.90
9.00
4.00
5.00
8.00
2.73%
21.43%
12.90% 12.50%
18.60%
5.00
34.00
8.00
5.74
6.00
18.52% 283.33%
50.00% 31.41%
37.50%
5.00
34.00
8.00
5.74
6.00
18.52% 283.33%
50.00% 31.41%
37.50%
32.00
48.00
5.00
9.00
22.00
82.05%
64.00%
23.81% 47.37% 169.23%
32.00
48.00
5.00
9.00
22.00
82.05%
64.00%
23.81% 47.37% 169.23%
18.00
13.00
14.00
10.00
25.00
26.09%
25.00%
18.18% 13.89%
69.44%
18.00
13.00
14.00
10.00
25.00
26.09%
25.00%
18.18% 13.89%
69.44%
30.00
25.00
10.00
24.00
16.00
115.38%
64.10%
21.28% 82.76%
23.88%
30.00
25.00
10.00
24.00
16.00
115.38%
64.10%
21.28% 82.76%
23.88%
32.00
42.00
23.00
10.00
21.00
31.07%
44.68%
27.06% 16.95%
38.18%
32.00
42.00
23.00
10.00
21.00
31.07%
44.68%
27.06% 16.95%
38.18%
40.00
5.00
9.00
53.00
13.00
160.00%
15.15%
18.37% 59.55%
54.17%
40.00
5.00
9.00
53.00
13.00
160.00%
15.15%
18.37% 59.55%
54.17%
23.00
4.00
8.00
10.00
5.00
26.74%
5.13%
11.76% 19.23%
6.94%
32.45
4.00
8.00
0.70
5.05
37.73%
5.13%
11.76%
1.35%
7.01%
22.00
9.00
13.00
30.00
11.00
25.58%
11.54%
25.00% 75.00%
17.74%
22.00
9.00
13.00
30.00
11.00
25.58%
11.54%
25.00% 75.00%
17.74%
7.00
73.00
4.00
1.91
24.00
14.58%
64.04%
10.00%
4.23%
80.00%
13.15
73.00
4.00
5.14
32.10
27.40%
64.04%
10.00% 11.41% 107.00%
4.00
9.00
3.00
1.00
39.00
17.39%
50.00%
23.08%
5.88%
68.42%
6.85
9.00
3.00
1.70
36.30
29.78%
50.00%
23.08% 10.00%
63.68%
10.00
5.00
22.00
7.00
14.00
34.48%
18.52%
50.00% 20.59%
34.15%
12.85
5.00
22.00
11.05
9.95
44.31%
18.52%
50.00% 32.50%
24.27%
7.25
8.00
11.00
17.00
21.00
24.78%
21.05%
50.00% 100.00%
38.89%
10.55
8.00
11.00
11.90
16.05
36.07%
21.05%
50.00% 70.00%
29.72%
15.04
9.00
13.00
4.00
4.00
94.24%
50.00% 162.50% 26.67%
21.05%
10.39
9.00
13.00
1.15
7.45
65.10%
50.00% 162.50%
7.67%
39.21%
1.62
0.00
2.00
6.00
1.00
15.22%
0.00%
14.29% 37.50%
10.00%
1.62
0.00
2.00
6.00
1.00
15.22%
0.00%
14.29% 37.50%
10.00%
18.00
10.00
28.00
6.00
8.00
22.78%
20.83%
41.18% 13.95%
19.05%
27.15
10.00
28.00
1.35
15.50
34.37%
20.83%
41.18%
3.14%
36.90%
10.00
5.00
3.00
3.00
4.00
43.48%
41.67%
23.08% 15.00%
20.00%
11.95
5.00
3.00
5.55
1.60
51.96%
41.67%
23.08% 27.75%
8.00%
9.00
23.00
14.00
9.00
3.00
42.86%
56.10%
38.89% 29.03%
10.71%
9.00
23.00
14.00
9.00
3.00
42.86%
56.10%
38.89% 29.03%
10.71%
16.00
16.00
14.00
8.00
8.00
145.45%
51.61%
36.84% 28.57%
28.57%
16.00
16.00
14.00
8.00
8.00
145.45%
51.61%
36.84% 28.57%
28.57%
353.00
525.00
250.00
241.00
102.00
120.07%
62.72%
32.94% 111.06%
15.55%
255.95
525.00
250.00
172.30
18.90
87.06%
62.72%
32.94% 79.40%
2.88%
114.00
163.00
181.00
563.00
276.00
16.24%
34.75%
27.14% 50.04% 105.75%
202.20
163.00
181.00
647.30
356.55
28.80%
34.75%
27.14% 57.54% 136.61%
16.00
22.00
87.00
90.00
291.00
2.15%
3.52%
11.84% 15.96%
32.96%
98.15
22.00
87.00
8.10
202.20
13.17%
3.52%
11.84%
1.44%
22.90%
Baseline
Dec-04
1.00
8.33%
1.00
8.33%
6.00
150.00%
6.00
150.00%
123.00
173.24%
123.00
173.24%
13.96
6.84%
13.96
6.84%
46.00
109.52%
46.00
109.52%
123.30
11.87%
123.30
11.87%
14.00
28.00%
14.00
28.00%
10.00
17.54%
10.00
17.54%
8.00
80.00%
8.00
80.00%
4.00
9.52%
4.00
9.52%
5.00
16.13%
5.00
16.13%
19.00
67.86%
19.00
67.86%
3.00
15.00%
3.00
15.00%
50.00
250.00%
50.00
250.00%
10.00
17.24%
10.00
17.24%
5.00
6.25%
5.00
6.25%
11.00
64.71%
11.00
64.71%
14.92
18.18%
14.92
18.18%
19.00
105.56%
19.00
105.56%
2.00
10.53%
2.00
10.53%
7.00
25.00%
7.00
25.00%
10.00
13.89%
10.00
13.89%
28.00
37.33%
28.00
37.33%
11.00
15.49%
11.00
15.49%
6.00
13.33%
6.00
13.33%
42.00
36.52%
42.00
36.52%
1.00
1.37%
1.00
1.37%
8.00
15.69%
8.00
15.69%
14.00
466.67%
14.00
466.67%
6.98
18.87%
6.98
18.87%
24.00
42.86%
24.00
42.86%
7.00
30.43%
7.00
30.43%
1.00
9.09%
1.00
9.09%
9.00
20.45%
9.00
20.45%
3.00
16.67%
3.00
16.67%
3.00
12.00%
3.00
12.00%
12.00
92.31%
12.00
92.31%
230.00
65.53%
230.00
65.53%
20.24
3.41%
20.24
3.41%
28.00
3.99%
28.00
3.99%
Jan-05
9.00
42.86%
9.00
42.86%
11.00
52.38%
11.00
52.38%
86.00
74.14%
86.00
74.14%
80.00
76.92%
52.40
50.38%
25.00
50.00%
13.75
27.50%
352.00
45.77%
352.00
45.77%
4.00
14.81%
0.65
2.41%
21.00
100.00%
21.00
100.00%
10.00
35.71%
10.00
35.71%
2.09
5.21%
2.09
5.21%
16.00
94.12%
11.05
65.00%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
7.00
30.43%
7.00
30.43%
23.00
51.11%
23.00
51.11%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
15.00
16.67%
26.25
29.17%
0.02
0.09%
4.03
14.93%
32.00
50.79%
32.00
50.79%
1.00
2.86%
1.00
2.86%
3.00
16.67%
3.00
16.67%
19.00
36.54%
19.00
36.54%
1.00
1.47%
1.00
1.47%
5.00
10.00%
5.00
10.00%
54.00
234.78%
54.00
234.78%
12.00
30.00%
12.00
30.00%
19.00
33.33%
7.60
13.33%
15.00
32.61%
15.00
32.61%
18.00
54.55%
10.35
31.36%
10.00
200.00%
7.75
155.00%
3.00
8.82%
7.65
22.50%
11.00
73.33%
7.10
47.33%
3.00
16.67%
5.25
29.17%
4.00
50.00%
4.00
50.00%
28.00
121.74%
20.35
88.48%
5.00
41.67%
2.45
20.42%
14.00
100.00%
14.00
100.00%
4.00
18.18%
4.00
18.18%
298.00
36.34%
376.30
45.89%
50.00
8.03%
50.95
8.18%
78.00
12.72%
25.65
4.18%
Feb-05
8.00
40.00%
8.00
40.00%
1.00
10.00%
1.00
10.00%
67.00
40.85%
67.00
40.85%
79.00
61.24%
110.20
85.43%
2.00
2.56%
9.40
12.05%
285.00
31.11%
285.00
31.11%
14.00
31.11%
9.35
20.78%
38.00
42.22%
38.00
42.22%
6.00
25.00%
6.00
25.00%
12.00
37.50%
12.00
37.50%
9.00
17.31%
2.55
4.90%
8.00
16.33%
8.00
16.33%
13.00
41.94%
13.00
41.94%
65.00
46.10%
65.00
46.10%
41.00
157.69%
41.00
157.69%
20.00
35.71%
31.40
56.07%
14.00
30.43%
9.20
20.00%
11.00
22.92%
11.00
22.92%
5.00
13.16%
5.00
13.16%
17.00
44.74%
17.00
44.74%
10.00
27.03%
10.00
27.03%
38.00
39.58%
38.00
39.58%
19.00
67.86%
19.00
67.86%
17.00
27.42%
17.00
27.42%
66.00
67.35%
66.00
67.35%
25.00
60.98%
34.90
85.12%
9.00
12.33%
9.00
12.33%
27.00
122.73%
34.35
156.14%
31.00
775.00%
36.25
906.25%
3.00
6.98%
3.00
6.98%
17.00
106.25%
21.95
137.19%
22.00
57.89%
19.60
51.58%
14.00
53.85%
14.00
53.85%
1.00
2.13%
8.20
17.45%
1.00
5.88%
1.40
8.24%
3.00
12.50%
3.00
12.50%
12.00
85.71%
12.00
85.71%
177.00
21.15%
78.00
9.32%
77.00
11.53%
11.65
1.74%
259.00
27.12%
154.60
16.19%
Mar-05
6.00
33.33%
6.00
33.33%
1.00
11.11%
1.00
11.11%
118.00
155.26%
118.00
155.26%
48.00
30.77%
17.40
11.15%
19.00
37.25%
8.50
16.67%
186.00
18.81%
186.00
18.81%
7.00
16.67%
12.25
29.17%
25.00
92.59%
25.00
92.59%
7.00
33.33%
7.00
33.33%
6.00
16.67%
6.00
16.67%
23.00
42.59%
27.65
51.20%
15.00
57.69%
15.00
57.69%
7.00
26.92%
7.00
26.92%
36.00
109.09%
36.00
109.09%
33.00
103.13%
33.00
103.13%
44.00
141.94%
32.75
105.65%
10.00
47.62%
5.35
25.48%
28.07
48.46%
28.07
48.46%
9.00
36.00%
9.00
36.00%
2.00
11.11%
2.00
11.11%
15.00
100.00%
15.00
100.00%
13.00
27.66%
13.00
27.66%
19.00
38.00%
19.00
38.00%
23.00
51.11%
23.00
51.11%
12.00
21.82%
12.00
21.82%
7.31
10.96%
3.79
5.68%
35.00
129.63%
35.00
129.63%
13.00
38.24%
5.95
17.50%
13.00
216.67%
10.15
169.17%
63.00
65.63%
67.95
70.78%
8.53
31.04%
3.13
11.38%
4.00
30.77%
1.45
11.15%
11.00
50.00%
11.00
50.00%
4.00
7.84%
11.05
21.67%
11.00
39.29%
13.55
48.39%
2.00
8.00%
2.00
8.00%
10.00
76.92%
10.00
76.92%
46.00
10.09%
29.30
6.43%
208.00
26.23%
295.75
37.30%
293.00
28.36%
404.00
39.11%
Apr-05
4.00
40.00%
4.00
40.00%
3.00
42.86%
3.00
42.86%
109.00
141.56%
109.00
141.56%
23.00
14.11%
50.90
31.23%
3.92
5.93%
14.42
21.81%
263.00
32.23%
263.00
32.23%
4.00
10.26%
1.25
3.21%
4.00
9.76%
4.00
9.76%
1.00
5.88%
1.00
5.88%
25.00
131.58%
25.00
131.58%
12.00
28.57%
7.50
17.86%
4.00
10.81%
4.00
10.81%
2.00
11.76%
2.00
11.76%
45.00
236.84%
45.00
236.84%
30.00
83.33%
30.00
83.33%
16.00
23.53%
28.60
42.06%
13.00
30.23%
8.50
19.77%
48.00
39.34%
48.00
39.34%
4.00
11.76%
4.00
11.76%
1.00
4.76%
1.00
4.76%
20.00
181.82%
20.00
181.82%
2.00
3.17%
2.00
3.17%
32.00
35.96%
32.00
35.96%
78.00
57.78%
78.00
57.78%
3.00
6.38%
3.00
6.38%
8.90
14.33%
19.55
31.48%
35.00
145.83%
35.00
145.83%
3.27
7.64%
10.17
23.79%
8.00
32.00%
5.45
21.80%
6.00
11.32%
1.05
1.98%
19.00
36.54%
14.05
27.02%
9.00
33.33%
6.30
23.33%
3.00
21.43%
3.00
21.43%
30.00
41.67%
23.70
32.92%
13.00
46.43%
10.75
38.39%
9.00
56.25%
9.00
56.25%
4.00
21.05%
4.00
21.05%
0.00
0.00%
88.05
15.00%
460.00
43.11%
368.95
34.58%
748.00
47.37%
623.35
39.48%
May-05
5.00
50.00%
5.00
50.00%
4.00
30.77%
4.00
30.77%
8.00
4.17%
8.00
4.17%
31.00
21.38%
57.40
39.59%
26.00
61.90%
36.20
86.19%
71.35
7.38%
71.35
7.38%
4.00
13.33%
9.10
30.33%
27.00
96.43%
27.00
96.43%
3.00
14.29%
3.00
14.29%
1.00
2.56%
1.00
2.56%
1.00
3.03%
6.10
18.48%
15.00
60.00%
15.00
60.00%
3.18
17.82%
3.18
17.82%
16.67
29.08%
16.67
29.08%
44.00
314.29%
44.00
314.29%
14.00
16.09%
3.05
3.51%
13.00
29.55%
8.35
18.98%
33.00
82.50%
33.00
82.50%
40.00
49.38%
40.00
49.38%
13.00
144.44%
13.00
144.44%
1.00
3.03%
1.00
3.03%
88.00
56.05%
88.00
56.05%
16.00
25.40%
16.00
25.40%
87.00
60.42%
87.00
60.42%
31.00
134.78%
31.00
134.78%
12.00
15.79%
2.40
3.16%
22.00
53.66%
22.00
53.66%
0.00
0.00%
7.20
15.00%
3.00
27.27%
5.10
46.36%
7.00
12.50%
0.35
0.62%
8.00
21.05%
3.50
9.21%
1.00
4.55%
2.15
9.77%
5.00
27.78%
5.00
27.78%
33.00
44.00%
26.70
35.60%
8.00
33.33%
5.60
23.33%
10.00
66.67%
10.00
66.67%
2.11
11.82%
2.11
11.82%
430.00
53.88%
374.80
46.97%
15.00
2.53%
106.35
17.90%
262.00
19.49%
99.70
7.42%
Jun-05
1.44
10.58%
1.44
10.58%
0.48
5.07%
0.48
5.07%
4.00
2.45%
4.00
2.45%
69.00
28.28%
69.00
28.28%
13.00
16.05%
13.00
16.05%
173.00
26.13%
173.00
26.13%
9.00
32.14%
9.00
32.14%
16.00
44.44%
16.00
44.44%
13.00
40.63%
13.00
40.63%
19.00
111.76%
19.00
111.76%
23.00
127.78%
23.00
127.78%
17.00
85.00%
17.00
85.00%
12.85
74.94%
12.85
74.94%
12.26
23.25%
12.26
23.25%
36.00
211.76%
36.00
211.76%
29.00
29.90%
29.00
29.90%
4.00
12.12%
4.00
12.12%
51.00
36.69%
51.00
36.69%
3.00
8.82%
3.00
8.82%
12.00
133.33%
12.00
133.33%
3.00
11.54%
3.00
11.54%
10.00
17.86%
10.00
17.86%
9.00
15.79%
9.00
15.79%
15.00
31.25%
15.00
31.25%
13.00
36.11%
13.00
36.11%
21.00
23.60%
21.00
23.60%
1.63
2.82%
1.63
2.82%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
14.00
50.00%
14.00
50.00%
38.00
39.18%
38.00
39.18%
13.00
30.23%
13.00
30.23%
8.00
66.67%
8.00
66.67%
1.00
7.14%
1.00
7.14%
12.00
33.33%
12.00
33.33%
5.00
35.71%
5.00
35.71%
6.00
35.29%
6.00
35.29%
5.00
19.23%
5.00
19.23%
150.00
19.79%
150.00
19.79%
492.00
42.49%
492.00
42.49%
380.00
25.12%
380.00
25.12%
Averages
208
Holdout
MAE
5.09
Holdout
MAPE
37.71%
3.34
38.26%
88.67
69.17%

Holdout Holdout
MAE
MAPE
5.09
62.40
35.15%
24.83
52.23%
183.20
19.05%
13.38
49.48%
21.75
62.59%
6.88
36.10%
12.84
50.58%
14.08
49.71%
10.42
35.60%
5.20
24.68%
28.83
71.39%
30.58
91.73%
25.00
41.21%
8.38
24.92%
26.46
34.45%
8.99
24.64%
9.06
65.53%
15.92
64.28%
20.17
26.02%
19.42
44.81%
34.42
53.02%
21.92
51.42%
15.43
22.11%
16.97
44.43%
14.93
34.31%
37.71%
3.34
38.26%
88.67
69.17%
61.75
34.84%
23.68
47.72%
183.20
19.05%
11.44
41.68%
21.75
62.59%
6.88
36.10%
12.84
50.58%
12.87
44.49%
10.42
35.60%
5.20
24.68%
28.83
71.39%
30.58
91.73%
25.23
40.15%
7.41
23.09%
26.46
34.45%
8.99
24.64%
9.06
65.53%
15.92
64.28%
20.17
26.02%
19.42
44.81%
34.42
53.02%
21.92
51.42%
15.12
21.82%
16.97
44.43%
16.95
39.94%
12.42 161.03%
12.46 165.98%
15.41
26.75%
13.73
48.00%
8.25
49.56%
4.13
24.69%
15.58
32.41%
5.92
30.18%
8.75
39.03%
9.26
51.36%
233.50
45.76%
218.27
30.94%
212.83
19.22%
37.67 45.34%
15.49
27.54%
12.02
42.67%
7.56
45.55%
4.13
24.69%
16.08
32.19%
5.74
28.63%
8.75
39.03%
9.26
51.36%
212.38
39.49%
241.33
35.87%
177.73
15.70%
36.69 44.70%
Nave 1
SKU-24-001
SKU-24-001-EM
SKU-24-002
SKU-24-002-EM
SKU-24-003
SKU-24-003-EM
SKU-24-004
SKU-24-004-EM
SKU-24-005
SKU-24-005-EM
SKU-24-006
SKU-24-006-EM
SKU-24-007
SKU-24-007-EM
SKU-24-008
SKU-24-008-EM
SKU-24-009
SKU-24-009-EM
SKU-24-010
SKU-24-010-EM
SKU-24-011
SKU-24-011-EM
SKU-24-012
SKU-24-012-EM
SKU-24-013
SKU-24-013-EM
SKU-24-014
SKU-24-014-EM
SKU-24-015
SKU-24-015-EM
SKU-24-016
SKU-24-016-EM
SKU-24-017
SKU-24-017-EM
SKU-24-018
SKU-24-018-EM
SKU-24-019
SKU-24-019-EM
SKU-24-020
SKU-24-020-EM
SKU-24-021
SKU-24-021-EM
SKU-24-022
SKU-24-022-EM
SKU-24-023
SKU-24-023-EM
SKU-24-024
SKU-24-024-EM
SKU-24-025
SKU-24-025-EM
SKU-24-026
SKU-24-026-EM
SKU-24-027
SKU-24-027-EM
SKU-24-028
SKU-24-028-EM
SKU-24-029
SKU-24-029-EM
SKU-24-030
SKU-24-030-EM
SKU-24-031
SKU-24-031-EM
SKU-24-032
SKU-24-032-EM
SKU-24-033
SKU-24-033-EM
SKU-24-034
SKU-24-034-EM
SKU-24-035
SKU-24-035-EM
SKU-24-036
SKU-24-036-EM
SKU-24-037
SKU-24-037-EM
SKU-24-038
SKU-24-038-EM
SKU-24-039
SKU-24-039-EM
SKU-24-040
SKU-24-040-EM
t+3
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
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Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
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Error
Percentage
Error
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Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
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Error
Error
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Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-04
10.00
71.43%
10.00
71.43%
0.62
6.59%
0.62
6.59%
20.00
12.20%
20.00
12.20%
2.86
1.77%
2.86
1.77%
84.00
200.00%
84.00
200.00%
32.00
2.49%
32.00
2.49%
6.48
21.27%
6.48
21.27%
21.00
35.59%
21.00
35.59%
10.00
111.11%
10.00
111.11%
27.00
54.00%
27.00
54.00%
53.00
220.83%
53.00
220.83%
23.00
42.59%
23.00
42.59%
0.36
2.34%
0.36
2.34%
16.77
30.61%
16.77
30.61%
44.00
102.33%
44.00
102.33%
41.00
54.67%
41.00
54.67%
5.44
19.14%
5.44
19.14%
10.00
10.64%
10.00
10.64%
7.90
23.88%
7.90
23.88%
10.00
37.04%
10.00
37.04%
8.00
20.51%
8.00
20.51%
6.00
8.70%
6.00
8.70%
33.00
126.92%
33.00
126.92%
34.00
33.01%
34.00
33.01%
18.00
72.00%
18.00
72.00%
18.00
20.93%
18.00
20.93%
14.00
16.28%
14.00
16.28%
1.00
2.08%
1.00
2.08%
17.00
73.91%
17.00
73.91%
8.00
27.59%
8.00
27.59%
15.75
53.85%
15.75
53.85%
11.04
69.17%
11.04
69.17%
0.38
3.62%
0.38
3.62%
28.00
35.44%
28.00
35.44%
4.00
17.39%
4.00
17.39%
10.00
47.62%
10.00
47.62%
12.00
109.09%
12.00
109.09%
495.00
168.37%
495.00
168.37%
33.00
4.70%
33.00
4.70%
344.00
46.17%
344.00
46.17%
Aug-04
2.65
20.42%
1.10
8.48%
8.00
160.00%
9.95
199.00%
235.00
239.80%
284.95
290.77%
55.00
31.25%
89.65
50.94%
57.00
82.61%
75.90
110.00%
319.00
22.28%
152.05
10.62%
50.00
172.41%
61.85
213.28%
18.00
29.51%
11.55
18.93%
17.00
62.96%
15.50
57.41%
19.00
32.76%
13.15
22.67%
12.00
25.53%
20.85
44.36%
6.00
11.11%
1.20
2.22%
3.20
15.99%
0.68
3.39%
10.95
14.79%
1.49
2.01%
21.00
27.27%
12.60
16.36%
45.00
71.43%
61.20
97.14%
5.00
14.71%
0.65
1.91%
13.00
12.87%
0.20
0.20%
8.00
19.05%
15.50
36.90%
10.00
83.33%
13.30
110.83%
68.00
90.67%
66.95
89.27%
35.00
67.31%
48.05
92.40%
17.00
43.59%
25.40
65.13%
23.00
24.47%
12.35
13.14%
32.00
96.97%
41.75
126.52%
15.00
19.23%
5.55
7.12%
14.00
17.95%
4.40
5.64%
73.00
64.04%
66.85
58.64%
1.00
5.56%
3.85
21.39%
1.00
3.70%
5.20
19.26%
16.00
42.11%
12.70
33.42%
13.00
72.22%
17.65
98.06%
5.00
35.71%
3.65
26.07%
13.00
27.08%
22.15
46.15%
1.00
8.33%
2.95
24.58%
11.00
26.83%
6.50
15.85%
4.00
12.90%
0.05
0.16%
190.00
22.70%
92.95
11.11%
119.00
25.37%
207.20
44.18%
17.00
2.72%
113.30
18.13%
Sep-04
9.00
64.29%
9.00
64.29%
7.00
46.67%
7.00
46.67%
193.00
60.12%
193.00
60.12%
19.00
7.06%
19.00
7.06%
35.00
30.70%
35.00
30.70%
121.00
10.55%
121.00
10.55%
15.00
60.00%
15.00
60.00%
47.00
223.81%
47.00
223.81%
9.00
34.62%
9.00
34.62%
17.00
85.00%
17.00
85.00%
18.00
47.37%
18.00
47.37%
16.00
57.14%
16.00
57.14%
1.05
7.01%
1.05
7.01%
35.73
37.61%
35.73
37.61%
15.00
40.54%
15.00
40.54%
14.00
21.88%
14.00
21.88%
3.00
11.54%
3.00
11.54%
61.00
47.29%
61.00
47.29%
4.00
12.90%
4.00
12.90%
30.00
187.50%
30.00
187.50%
6.00
28.57%
6.00
28.57%
12.00
15.58%
12.00
15.58%
17.00
36.17%
17.00
36.17%
33.00
38.82%
33.00
38.82%
21.00
42.86%
21.00
42.86%
6.00
8.82%
6.00
8.82%
17.00
32.69%
17.00
32.69%
1.00
2.50%
1.00
2.50%
4.00
30.77%
4.00
30.77%
30.00
68.18%
30.00
68.18%
8.00
36.36%
8.00
36.36%
1.00
12.50%
1.00
12.50%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
30.00
44.12%
30.00
44.12%
4.00
30.77%
4.00
30.77%
18.00
50.00%
18.00
50.00%
23.00
60.53%
23.00
60.53%
447.00
58.89%
447.00
58.89%
35.00
5.25%
35.00
5.25%
169.00
22.99%
169.00
22.99%
Oct-04
7.00
100.00%
7.00
100.00%
1.38
17.27%
1.38
17.27%
35.00
17.59%
35.00
17.59%
28.86
15.11%
28.86
15.11%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
226.77
21.45%
226.77
21.45%
17.48
134.49%
17.48
134.49%
39.00
195.00%
39.00
195.00%
9.60
51.60%
9.60
51.60%
23.00
85.19%
23.00
85.19%
4.00
14.29%
4.00
14.29%
21.00
63.64%
21.00
63.64%
3.64
19.16%
3.64
19.16%
8.23
13.07%
8.23
13.07%
12.00
21.82%
12.00
21.82%
7.00
10.29%
7.00
10.29%
0.56
1.91%
0.56
1.91%
12.42
11.67%
12.42
11.67%
6.90
17.26%
6.90
17.26%
8.74
47.83%
8.74
47.83%
20.00
105.26%
20.00
105.26%
3.00
4.17%
3.00
4.17%
3.00
10.34%
3.00
10.34%
44.00
74.58%
44.00
74.58%
64.00
71.91%
64.00
71.91%
34.00
65.38%
34.00
65.38%
46.00
115.00%
46.00
115.00%
2.91
6.44%
2.91
6.44%
6.00
35.29%
6.00
35.29%
5.00
14.71%
5.00
14.71%
12.25
72.05%
12.25
72.05%
0.96
6.40%
0.96
6.40%
5.38
33.65%
5.38
33.65%
36.00
83.72%
36.00
83.72%
3.00
15.00%
3.00
15.00%
10.00
32.26%
10.00
32.26%
17.00
60.71%
17.00
60.71%
77.00
35.48%
77.00
35.48%
423.00
37.60%
423.00
37.60%
181.00
32.09%
181.00
32.09%
Nov-04
6.00
31.58%
4.05
21.32%
3.00
37.50%
2.25
28.13%
268.00
73.22%
253.30
69.21%
119.00
40.34%
92.60
31.39%
8.00
10.39%
2.35
3.05%
24.00
1.65%
190.80
13.10%
17.00
36.96%
12.65
27.50%
34.00
35.79%
24.85
26.16%
18.00
200.00%
22.05
245.00%
6.00
11.54%
14.70
28.27%
20.00
74.07%
27.05
100.19%
11.00
25.58%
19.10
44.42%
1.00
4.76%
2.00
9.52%
32.00
30.19%
20.90
19.72%
60.00
43.80%
48.45
35.36%
11.00
14.86%
1.55
2.09%
17.00
33.33%
11.90
23.33%
34.00
50.75%
49.15
73.36%
1.00
2.33%
5.30
12.33%
4.00
25.00%
2.20
13.75%
62.00
476.92%
73.25
563.46%
16.00
44.44%
23.80
66.11%
28.00
41.79%
22.15
33.06%
39.00
70.91%
53.10
96.55%
9.00
37.50%
13.95
58.13%
6.00
8.33%
17.70
24.58%
16.00
25.81%
27.70
44.68%
84.00
280.00%
101.10
337.00%
39.00
68.42%
36.30
63.68%
14.00
34.15%
9.95
24.27%
16.00
29.63%
10.30
19.07%
1.00
5.26%
1.70
8.95%
4.00
40.00%
6.10
61.00%
6.00
14.29%
13.20
31.43%
8.00
40.00%
6.20
31.00%
13.00
46.43%
19.15
68.39%
3.00
10.71%
7.65
27.32%
181.00
27.59%
306.55
46.73%
208.00
79.69%
278.35
106.65%
258.00
29.22%
164.25
18.60%
Dec-04
2.00
16.67%
0.80
6.67%
11.00
275.00%
8.00
200.00%
250.00
352.11%
185.80
261.69%
65.04
31.89%
11.24
5.51%
72.00
171.43%
49.20
117.14%
108.30
10.43%
121.10
11.66%
25.00
50.00%
30.00
60.00%
36.00
63.16%
40.20
70.53%
16.00
160.00%
10.80
108.00%
22.00
52.38%
26.00
61.90%
7.00
22.58%
0.60
1.94%
0.00
0.00%
5.60
20.00%
5.00
25.00%
8.00
40.00%
75.00
375.00%
56.00
280.00%
21.00
36.21%
28.40
48.97%
16.00
20.00%
28.80
36.00%
9.00
52.94%
3.80
22.35%
46.92
57.16%
21.12
25.73%
13.00
72.22%
6.80
37.78%
3.00
15.79%
6.20
32.63%
7.00
25.00%
11.20
40.00%
5.00
6.94%
10.40
14.44%
28.00
37.33%
37.40
49.87%
14.00
19.72%
3.00
4.23%
4.00
8.89%
5.80
12.89%
47.00
40.87%
60.60
52.70%
21.00
28.77%
31.40
43.01%
11.00
21.57%
19.00
37.25%
10.00
333.33%
7.40
246.67%
7.02
18.99%
1.78
4.80%
34.00
60.71%
38.40
68.57%
15.00
65.22%
16.60
72.17%
3.00
27.27%
0.20
1.82%
24.00
54.55%
10.40
23.64%
5.00
27.78%
7.60
42.22%
11.00
44.00%
3.80
15.20%
25.00
192.31%
17.40
133.85%
408.00
116.24%
256.20
72.99%
73.76
12.43%
59.64
10.05%
34.00
4.85%
113.00
16.12%
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
14.00
1.00
6.00
66.67%
5.00%
33.33%
15.40
1.85
8.40
73.33%
9.25%
46.67%
13.00
2.00
5.00
61.90%
20.00%
55.56%
14.60
0.80
5.80
69.52%
8.00%
64.44%
83.00
202.00
5.00
71.55%
123.17%
6.58%
43.20
256.90
19.20
37.24%
156.65%
25.26%
87.00
166.00
47.96
83.65%
128.68%
30.74%
48.80
210.25
7.17
46.92%
162.98%
4.59%
8.00
1.00
9.00
16.00%
1.28%
17.65%
16.40
10.55
17.40
32.80%
13.53%
34.12%
288.23
540.00
49.70
37.48%
58.95%
5.03%
76.78
758.40
158.04
9.98%
82.79%
15.98%
14.00
1.00
8.00
51.85%
2.22%
19.05%
16.60
7.90
2.00
61.48%
17.56%
4.76%
1.00
5.00
30.00
4.76%
5.56% 111.11%
5.00
19.25
18.60
23.81%
21.39%
68.89%
9.40
15.00
11.00
33.58%
62.50%
52.38%
13.12
13.65
13.00
46.87%
56.88%
61.90%
13.09
20.00
6.00
32.65%
62.50%
16.67%
18.49
27.80
2.40
46.12%
86.88%
6.67%
11.00
25.00
23.00
64.71%
48.08%
42.59%
5.40
20.95
29.20
31.76%
40.29%
54.07%
8.00
6.00
2.00
19.51%
12.24%
7.69%
14.60
0.45
3.60
35.61%
0.92%
13.85%
4.00
10.00
6.00
17.39%
32.26%
23.08%
7.80
6.85
10.00
33.91%
22.10%
38.46%
18.00
35.00
13.00
40.00%
24.82%
39.39%
5.40
19.10
17.00
12.00%
13.55%
51.52%
6.00
111.00
26.00
12.24%
426.92%
81.25%
5.00
131.55
14.40
10.20%
505.96%
45.00%
22.00
18.00
49.00
24.44%
32.14% 158.06%
35.60
29.10
33.00
39.56%
51.96% 106.45%
2.02
5.00
4.00
7.50%
10.87%
19.05%
3.78
12.65
7.40
14.00%
27.50%
35.24%
43.42
19.00
24.15
68.93%
39.58%
41.70%
22.14
29.05
7.74
35.14%
60.52%
13.36%
5.00
5.00
7.00
14.29%
13.16%
28.00%
3.00
11.45
10.60
8.57%
30.13%
42.40%
0.26
22.00
1.00
1.47%
57.89%
5.56%
3.39
19.60
2.80
18.83%
51.58%
15.56%
33.00
24.00
13.00
63.46%
64.86%
86.67%
36.80
22.05
7.40
70.77%
59.59%
49.33%
4.00
60.00
25.00
5.88%
62.50%
53.19%
10.40
54.60
10.60
15.29%
56.88%
22.55%
21.00
39.00
25.00
42.00%
139.29%
50.00%
26.80
49.05
10.00
53.60%
175.18%
20.00%
36.00
7.00
26.00
156.52%
11.29%
57.78%
24.20
1.25
11.80
105.22%
2.02%
26.22%
49.00
74.00
10.00
122.50%
75.51%
18.18%
31.20
70.40
19.00
78.00%
71.84%
34.55%
5.00
31.00
48.31
8.77%
75.61%
72.44%
15.40
41.80
25.31
27.02%
101.95%
37.95%
6.00
11.00
46.00
13.04%
15.07% 170.37%
14.00
1.70
31.40
30.43%
2.33% 116.30%
12.09
8.00
17.00
36.65%
36.36%
50.00%
3.08
12.50
6.80
9.32%
56.82%
20.00%
12.00
53.00
3.00
240.00% 1325.00%
50.00%
8.60
61.55
3.60
172.00% 1538.75%
60.00%
0.00
2.00
59.02
0.00%
4.65%
61.48%
6.80
4.15
66.42
20.00%
9.65%
69.19%
2.00
38.00
28.53
13.33%
237.50% 103.84%
1.40
46.10
17.33
9.33%
288.13%
63.07%
3.00
19.00
10.00
16.67%
50.00%
76.92%
6.00
16.15
5.40
33.33%
42.50%
41.54%
8.00
16.00
11.00
100.00%
61.54%
50.00%
4.80
14.50
13.20
60.00%
55.77%
60.00%
20.00
5.00
7.00
86.96%
10.64%
13.73%
11.40
1.30
15.80
49.57%
2.77%
30.98%
8.00
3.00
10.00
66.67%
17.65%
35.71%
4.00
6.00
13.60
33.33%
35.29%
48.57%
17.00
4.00
0.00
121.43%
16.67%
0.00%
10.80
8.20
5.00
77.14%
34.17%
20.00%
6.00
14.00
0.00
27.27%
100.00%
0.00%
0.40
18.20
2.60
1.82%
130.00%
20.00%
603.00
181.00
105.00
73.54%
21.62%
23.03%
646.40
82.60
175.20
78.83%
9.87%
38.42%
502.00
407.00
199.76
80.58%
60.93%
25.19%
277.00
367.85
318.41
44.46%
55.07%
40.15%
49.00
72.00
332.00
7.99%
7.54%
32.14%
161.80
60.45
472.20
26.39%
6.33%
45.71%
Apr-05
11.00
110.00%
11.00
110.00%
14.00
200.00%
14.00
200.00%
39.00
50.65%
39.00
50.65%
59.00
36.20%
59.00
36.20%
16.08
24.34%
16.08
24.34%
47.00
5.76%
47.00
5.76%
12.00
30.77%
12.00
30.77%
20.00
48.78%
20.00
48.78%
11.00
64.71%
11.00
64.71%
21.09
111.00%
21.09
111.00%
25.00
59.52%
25.00
59.52%
4.00
10.81%
4.00
10.81%
6.00
35.29%
6.00
35.29%
26.00
136.84%
26.00
136.84%
13.00
36.11%
13.00
36.11%
22.00
32.35%
22.00
32.35%
16.02
37.26%
16.02
37.26%
59.00
48.36%
59.00
48.36%
1.00
2.94%
1.00
2.94%
3.00
14.29%
3.00
14.29%
41.00
372.73%
41.00
372.73%
5.00
7.94%
5.00
7.94%
39.00
43.82%
39.00
43.82%
112.00
82.96%
112.00
82.96%
7.00
14.89%
7.00
14.89%
5.10
8.21%
5.10
8.21%
22.00
91.67%
22.00
91.67%
9.73
22.78%
9.73
22.78%
20.00
80.00%
20.00
80.00%
19.00
35.85%
19.00
35.85%
37.00
71.15%
37.00
71.15%
9.00
33.33%
9.00
33.33%
6.00
42.86%
6.00
42.86%
49.00
68.06%
49.00
68.06%
16.00
57.14%
16.00
57.14%
2.00
12.50%
2.00
12.50%
3.00
15.79%
3.00
15.79%
233.00
39.69%
233.00
39.69%
444.00
41.61%
444.00
41.61%
966.00
61.18%
966.00
61.18%
May-05
10.00
100.00%
13.00
130.00%
3.00
23.08%
1.50
11.54%
28.00
14.58%
3.40
1.77%
16.00
11.03%
3.35
2.31%
36.00
85.71%
47.70
113.57%
50.65
5.24%
86.75
8.97%
15.00
50.00%
21.75
72.50%
62.00
221.43%
75.50
269.64%
3.00
14.29%
6.60
31.43%
7.00
17.95%
2.20
5.64%
19.00
57.58%
26.80
81.21%
24.00
96.00%
31.35
125.40%
13.18
73.93%
17.83
100.02%
83.67
145.94%
104.82
182.84%
12.00
85.71%
15.90
113.57%
31.00
35.63%
22.60
25.98%
2.00
4.55%
8.90
20.23%
8.00
20.00%
15.20
38.00%
43.00
53.09%
37.30
46.05%
29.00
322.22%
34.70
385.56%
4.00
12.12%
9.55
28.94%
61.00
38.85%
46.60
29.68%
35.00
55.56%
30.80
48.89%
82.00
56.94%
72.70
50.49%
75.00
326.09%
89.70
390.00%
35.00
46.05%
28.85
37.96%
32.00
78.05%
42.95
104.76%
26.00
54.17%
22.70
47.29%
7.00
63.64%
6.40
58.18%
13.00
23.21%
6.55
11.70%
22.00
57.89%
19.60
51.58%
16.00
72.73%
21.70
98.64%
8.00
44.44%
11.90
66.11%
28.00
37.33%
20.95
27.93%
7.00
29.17%
4.45
18.54%
9.00
60.00%
12.60
84.00%
3.89
21.73%
1.79
9.99%
39.00
4.89%
164.55
20.62%
74.00
12.46%
174.20
29.33%
389.00
28.94%
245.75
18.28%
Jun-05
4.44
32.70%
4.44
32.70%
0.52
5.44%
0.52
5.44%
87.00
53.37%
87.00
53.37%
88.00
36.07%
88.00
36.07%
30.00
37.04%
30.00
37.04%
327.00
49.40%
327.00
49.40%
14.00
50.00%
14.00
50.00%
9.00
25.00%
9.00
25.00%
11.00
34.38%
11.00
34.38%
19.00
111.76%
19.00
111.76%
36.00
200.00%
36.00
200.00%
6.00
30.00%
6.00
30.00%
8.85
51.62%
8.85
51.62%
19.74
37.43%
19.74
37.43%
15.00
88.24%
15.00
88.24%
66.00
68.04%
66.00
68.04%
12.00
36.36%
12.00
36.36%
81.07
58.33%
81.07
58.33%
9.00
26.47%
9.00
26.47%
9.00
100.00%
9.00
100.00%
11.00
42.31%
11.00
42.31%
9.00
16.07%
9.00
16.07%
7.00
12.28%
7.00
12.28%
3.00
6.25%
3.00
6.25%
19.00
52.78%
19.00
52.78%
22.31
25.07%
22.31
25.07%
30.63
53.15%
30.63
53.15%
5.00
12.82%
5.00
12.82%
22.00
78.57%
22.00
78.57%
1.00
1.03%
1.00
1.03%
15.53
36.11%
15.53
36.11%
1.00
8.33%
1.00
8.33%
8.00
57.14%
8.00
57.14%
15.00
41.67%
15.00
41.67%
14.00
100.00%
14.00
100.00%
8.00
47.06%
8.00
47.06%
13.00
50.00%
13.00
50.00%
302.00
39.84%
302.00
39.84%
365.00
31.52%
365.00
31.52%
480.00
31.73%
480.00
31.73%
Averages
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
7.27
6.92
Holdout
MAPE
54.34%

MAE
MAE
MAPE
7.28
4.80
5.71
75.75%
52.90
120.42
89.58%
63.40
62.81
37.82%
29.00
29.67
56.43%
194.66
177.80
19.22%
17.60
16.25
56.58%
24.20
26.83
83.29%
4.70
11.67
73.51%
30.10
16.68
56.12%
20.28
21.08
73.10%
17.00
10.58
31.36%
6.33
5.19
25.65%
39.01
31.17
77.14%
48.50
29.67
83.54%
32.90
28.50
45.32%
14.00
6.75
20.76%
24.70
34.33
38.94%
7.40
9.23
23.80%
10.14
10.83
74.83%
20.80
24.75 115.76%
24.10
20.08
27.63%
20.60
24.33
53.26%
67.20
37.75
52.77%
19.80
31.83
78.34%
34.00
22.73
33.31%
33.20
22.97
54.82%
28.70
20.89
49.12%
12.97
56.18%
5.23
5.53
71.38%
54.29
118.40
86.38%
60.02
55.07
33.40%
30.27
32.05
59.69%
206.01
191.47
20.23%
16.10
18.14
62.80%
22.27
27.58
85.63%
4.73
12.11
75.32%
28.28
17.65
58.76%
18.16
22.24
74.65%
19.17
12.16
37.22%
6.61
6.09
30.24%
38.76
27.60
68.10%
51.01
29.61
88.71%
36.76
30.15
45.53%
14.57
7.18
20.90%
25.35
30.67
35.22%
6.85
9.90
24.80%
10.51
11.91
84.62%
20.15
26.10 122.56%
25.55
19.95
29.15%
22.54
25.05
56.27%
62.53
33.70
44.46%
18.48
33.40
85.53%
29.44
23.39
34.81%
29.91
23.60
54.66%
26.38
20.97
51.08%
11.27
16.39 204.93%
16.17 198.71%
9.70
13.25
24.46%
19.38
20.42
67.88%
8.10
8.33
40.73%
2.20
6.23
41.35%
21.82
21.75
43.13%
5.00
6.92
37.13%
11.32
9.42
42.07%
7.70
10.32
55.09%
210.40
271.75
52.66%
131.20
240.29
34.78%
225.80
274.25
25.63%
8.59
13.65
17.84
19.53
66.89%
7.12
9.02
43.74%
2.12
6.18
39.00%
18.99
21.10
40.45%
44.16
55.64%
25.52%
4.28
7.15
37.82%
9.95
9.50
42.02%
9.02
9.67
51.60%
242.89
273.20
51.74%
111.69
248.55
37.55%
230.75
39.07
7.17
39.29
289.23
45.05
28.64%
56.70%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
13.96
25.37%
13.96
25.37%
6.70
1.27%
6.70
1.27%
23.97
26.34%
23.97
26.34%
4.46
1.18%
4.46
1.18%
105.81
39.78%
105.81
39.78%
33.45
14.11%
33.45
14.11%
73.82
12.91%
73.82
12.91%
8.97
4.88%
8.97
4.88%
20.00
10.41%
20.00
10.41%
8.67
14.63%
8.67
14.63%

Aug-03
11.09
20.93%
4.81
9.07%
11.76
2.17%
67.63
12.50%
1.40
2.17%
11.27
17.49%
88.56
18.96%
31.80
6.81%
114.65
39.95%
88.79
30.94%
49.16
19.13%
17.99
7.00%
17.24
3.35%
57.47
11.15%
36.78
17.51%
10.79
5.14%
36.80
15.02%
5.57
2.28%
18.27
21.24%
8.11
9.43%
Sep-03
2.08
5.07%
2.08
5.07%
10.34
2.03%
10.34
2.03%
8.94
11.32%
8.94
11.32%
5.95
1.67%
5.95
1.67%
70.04
28.66%
70.04
28.66%
29.67
12.36%
29.67
12.36%
169.00
25.04%
169.00
25.04%
8.76
4.92%
8.76
4.92%
0.64
0.33%
0.64
0.33%
14.23
26.84%
14.23
26.84%
Oct-03
Nov-03
4.93
10.97
9.79% 30.47%
1.89
10.97
3.75% 30.47%
106.08
12.86
25.50%
2.51%
184.39
12.86
44.32%
2.51%
19.25
38.28
35.00% 112.60%
30.39
38.28
55.25% 112.60%
20.04
54.17
5.19% 16.32%
34.85
54.17
9.03% 16.32%
23.34
44.52
10.81% 26.66%
5.55
44.52
2.57% 26.66%
52.32
16.94
19.52%
8.19%
19.97
16.94
7.45%
8.19%
63.20
12.41
13.86%
2.45%
141.08
12.41
30.94%
2.45%
19.14
44.71
12.51% 33.12%
44.96
44.71
29.39% 33.12%
19.69
70.75
11.25% 52.80%
48.89
70.75
27.94% 52.80%
12.37
8.96
15.86% 14.75%
2.53
8.96
3.24% 14.75%
Dec-03
1.05
2.25%
10.21
21.80%
12.74
2.50%
91.81
18.00%
29.63
67.34%
14.90
33.87%
128.33
50.93%
52.27
20.74%
14.26
7.00%
29.36
14.40%
18.16
8.69%
27.27
13.05%
12.73
2.37%
97.22
18.10%
16.75
10.30%
19.12
11.76%
11.00
5.73%
29.60
15.42%
2.36
3.69%
10.91
17.05%
Jan-04
11.70
33.43%
2.36
6.74%
97.39
24.11%
2.89
0.71%
5.78
9.02%
8.20
12.78%
154.47
68.05%
78.17
34.44%
100.67
86.04%
57.14
48.84%
22.33
10.48%
24.74
11.61%
7.05
1.31%
113.25
21.05%
35.09
25.24%
0.27
0.19%
45.40
29.87%
5.92
3.89%
33.69
96.26%
19.95
57.01%
Feb-04
Mar-04
10.56
5.01
31.06% 12.53%
17.24
3.99
50.72%
9.97%
23.29
180.97
4.42% 55.86%
52.27
79.98
9.92% 24.68%
0.56
29.98
0.89% 103.37%
9.96
18.18
16.03% 62.70%
20.57
109.66
5.86% 46.08%
76.31
40.13
21.74% 16.86%
73.54
101.80
54.88% 96.95%
104.67
60.44
78.11% 57.56%
30.66
21.53
15.41% 10.55%
65.11
23.58
32.72% 11.56%
33.27
194.19
6.75% 58.14%
112.17
88.55
22.77% 26.51%
5.73
52.54
3.33% 46.49%
19.21
19.43
11.17% 17.19%
9.04
43.18
5.14% 30.19%
36.74
5.94
20.92%
4.15%
16.90
8.76
20.12% 15.17%
6.83
4.54
8.13%
7.86%
Apr-04
2.99
6.50%
2.99
6.50%
33.78
7.49%
33.78
7.49%
20.99
25.92%
20.99
25.92%
7.47
2.26%
7.47
2.26%
39.84
26.74%
39.84
26.74%
22.02
10.96%
22.02
10.96%
83.24
18.63%
83.24
18.63%
19.23
13.64%
19.23
13.64%
2.34
1.32%
2.34
1.32%
14.19
30.84%
14.19
30.84%
May-04
4.77
10.38%
1.41
3.06%
17.22
3.62%
91.20
19.16%
0.64
1.06%
9.70
16.22%
1.02
0.31%
50.37
15.36%
54.87
44.61%
81.55
66.30%
22.78
9.45%
9.95
4.13%
195.67
59.84%
274.07
83.81%
37.42
18.71%
13.03
6.51%
64.39
26.50%
37.60
15.47%
10.05
13.40%
0.31
0.41%
Jun-04
0.03
0.08%
0.03
0.08%
110.38
31.63%
110.38
31.63%
7.15
15.21%
7.15
15.21%
3.18
1.01%
3.18
1.01%
31.70
16.26%
31.70
16.26%
31.37
17.05%
31.37
17.05%
31.94
7.05%
31.94
7.05%
3.33
2.14%
3.33
2.14%
51.51
23.10%
51.51
23.10%
3.50
5.22%
3.50
5.22%
Jul-04
4.97
13.44%
4.97
13.44%
53.70
13.29%
53.70
13.29%
2.03
3.30%
2.03
3.30%
51.85
19.72%
51.85
19.72%
32.44
25.34%
32.44
25.34%
5.50
2.52%
5.50
2.52%
101.67
17.56%
101.67
17.56%
19.33
14.76%
19.33
14.76%
6.59
3.97%
6.59
3.97%
2.17
3.48%
2.17
3.48%
Aug-04
13.78
47.50%
20.19
69.63%
36.96
8.71%
106.17
25.02%
16.42
21.61%
7.49
9.85%
12.48
4.09%
60.11
19.71%
51.95
51.43%
74.89
74.15%
43.20
24.69%
75.93
43.39%
102.27
29.64%
169.36
49.09%
47.27
41.83%
71.31
63.10%
13.67
7.90%
41.67
24.09%
10.00
18.87%
19.45
36.70%
Sep-04
6.58
13.43%
6.58
13.43%
206.89
89.18%
206.89
89.18%
3.21
5.32%
3.21
5.32%
129.79
69.40%
129.79
69.40%
35.36
28.06%
35.36
28.06%
21.64
9.29%
21.64
9.29%
31.41
7.53%
31.41
7.53%
12.26
8.33%
12.26
8.33%
6.00
3.19%
6.00
3.19%
14.20
18.20%
14.20
18.20%
Oct-04
6.34
18.10%
6.34
18.10%
78.91
22.35%
78.91
22.35%
1.96
3.50%
1.96
3.50%
111.03
56.94%
111.03
56.94%
87.69
130.88%
87.69
130.88%
42.69
25.11%
42.69
25.11%
26.61
5.94%
26.61
5.94%
19.35
14.40%
19.35
14.40%
25.89
15.93%
25.89
15.93%
32.47
104.76%
32.47
104.76%
Nov-04
13.13
25.25%
7.30
14.04%
6.41
1.51%
70.97
16.74%
14.43
18.99%
5.20
6.84%
76.82
33.55%
122.70
53.58%
55.95
63.58%
77.54
88.12%
2.85
1.37%
27.92
13.42%
12.62
2.90%
79.92
18.33%
20.58
16.47%
42.42
33.94%
63.28
51.87%
91.07
74.65%
5.11
9.09%
14.32
25.45%
Dec-04
4.24
9.40%
12.42
27.52%
69.73
21.72%
8.42
2.62%
18.31
42.58%
6.05
14.06%
59.06
26.48%
2.65
1.19%
74.36
112.67%
46.29
70.13%
4.33
2.10%
37.81
18.32%
49.30
12.54%
39.16
9.96%
78.90
117.76%
49.72
74.21%
52.44
39.32%
15.28
11.46%
18.70
40.66%
5.76
12.53%
Jan-05
8.72
28.12%
0.77
2.49%
104.18
37.34%
27.55
9.87%
20.25
50.62%
8.20
20.49%
85.65
47.85%
32.72
18.28%
16.69
15.31%
8.45
7.75%
12.58
6.62%
27.94
14.70%
170.42
62.43%
81.74
29.94%
68.60
91.46%
39.88
53.17%
9.14
5.31%
27.09
15.75%
18.96
48.62%
7.37
18.90%
Feb-05
0.14
0.34%
6.47
15.39%
35.65
8.35%
23.05
5.40%
1.85
3.00%
11.36
18.45%
25.52
11.00%
64.15
27.65%
1.15
0.98%
18.87
16.13%
8.35
4.28%
38.90
19.92%
42.06
8.69%
24.23
5.01%
32.88
30.73%
53.86
50.33%
44.31
35.45%
69.71
55.77%
5.62
10.81%
14.27
27.44%
Mar-05
19.77
85.94%
11.21
48.75%
4.28
1.15%
71.18
19.08%
3.39
5.41%
15.25
24.33%
108.61
76.49%
58.49
41.19%
38.72
56.12%
17.18
24.89%
29.79
12.73%
70.63
30.19%
148.15
52.17%
61.72
21.73%
36.30
40.79%
11.24
12.63%
70.12
76.22%
37.70
40.98%
11.30
25.68%
0.24
0.54%
Apr-05
1.84
4.78%
1.84
4.78%
53.38
12.99%
53.38
12.99%
8.51
13.30%
8.51
13.30%
59.29
33.50%
59.29
33.50%
5.02
4.45%
5.02
4.45%
52.63
20.72%
52.63
20.72%
134.32
50.50%
134.32
50.50%
16.24
16.40%
16.24
16.40%
84.10
105.12%
84.10
105.12%
5.04
10.72%
5.04
10.72%
May-05
6.74
19.81%
12.85
37.78%
7.50
2.06%
63.22
17.37%
16.33
22.37%
7.83
10.72%
45.57
16.22%
10.25
3.65%
34.22
23.76%
17.75
12.33%
41.85
17.29%
11.82
4.89%
112.06
36.74%
174.62
57.25%
4.59
4.21%
21.63
19.85%
12.72
7.53%
10.72
6.34%
5.97
10.29%
1.84
3.17%
Jun-05
12.19
48.75%
12.19
48.75%
79.80
27.33%
79.80
27.33%
7.49
11.46%
7.49
11.46%
79.75
58.21%
79.75
58.21%
50.62
99.26%
50.62
99.26%
24.08
10.42%
24.08
10.42%
27.99
7.72%
27.99
7.72%
9.33
7.90%
9.33
7.90%
26.42
22.58%
26.42
22.58%
13.57
21.21%
13.57
21.21%
Averages
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
7.00
7.40
Holdout
MAPE
20.95%
70.17
56.70
17.04%
14.98
12.53
25.49%
100.25
60.14
27.97%
40.77
52.47
45.42%
33.85
26.66
12.21%
64.00
77.19
21.09%
29.11
27.25
24.91%
28.70
32.89
24.42%
12.78
12.29
25.02%
40.16
36.55
24.45%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
7.61
7.29
20.28%
85.52
66.14
18.14%
17.05
11.94
22.81%
85.29
50.91
22.93%
47.20
49.65
42.43%
37.63
31.65
15.13%
68.61
91.96
23.37%
33.19
24.10
21.21%
31.50
31.57
23.24%
12.38
9.73
19.94%
42.60
37.49
22.95%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
14.54
26.43%
14.54
26.43%
10.79
2.04%
10.79
2.04%
17.78
19.54%
17.78
19.54%
43.54
11.52%
43.54
11.52%
132.12
49.67%
132.12
49.67%
38.72
16.34%
38.72
16.34%
43.03
7.52%
43.03
7.52%
12.12
6.59%
12.12
6.59%
11.57
6.03%
11.57
6.03%
8.53
14.39%
8.53
14.39%
Alpha Fitted
Aug-03
10.65
20.09%
4.29
8.10%
6.85
1.27%
73.27
13.54%
4.06
6.30%
14.33
22.25%
107.96
23.12%
54.10
11.59%
119.42
41.61%
94.28
32.85%
48.38
18.83%
17.09
6.65%
1.50
0.29%
79.02
15.34%
40.40
19.24%
14.95
7.12%
45.52
18.58%
15.59
6.37%
18.53
21.54%
8.40
9.77%
Sep-03
3.45
8.41%
3.45
8.41%
5.27
1.03%
5.27
1.03%
3.35
4.24%
3.35
4.24%
20.41
5.72%
20.41
5.72%
71.12
29.11%
71.12
29.11%
26.84
11.18%
26.84
11.18%
150.08
22.23%
150.08
22.23%
14.76
8.29%
14.76
8.29%
17.98
9.17%
17.98
9.17%
13.59
25.65%
13.59
25.65%
Oct-03
Nov-03
1.86
14.26
3.70% 39.61%
5.42
14.26
10.75% 39.61%
104.35
15.34
25.08%
2.99%
182.40
15.34
43.85%
2.99%
26.59
40.95
48.34% 120.44%
38.83
40.95
70.60% 120.44%
33.39
64.86
8.65% 19.54%
19.50
64.86
5.05% 19.54%
6.88
72.25
3.18% 43.26%
24.49
72.25
11.34% 43.26%
45.61
28.78
17.02% 13.90%
12.25
28.78
4.57% 13.90%
87.13
26.36
19.11%
5.21%
168.60
26.36
36.97%
5.21%
18.24
51.23
11.92% 37.95%
43.92
51.23
28.71% 37.95%
8.43
73.25
4.82% 54.66%
35.94
73.25
20.54% 54.66%
14.25
11.61
18.27% 19.12%
4.68
11.61
6.01% 19.12%
Dec-03
0.15
0.33%
9.49
20.26%
11.34
2.22%
92.93
18.22%
32.52
73.90%
17.21
39.12%
129.44
51.37%
53.15
21.09%
37.40
18.35%
10.85
5.32%
28.42
13.60%
19.07
9.12%
50.54
9.41%
66.97
12.47%
20.42
12.56%
16.19
9.96%
10.90
5.68%
29.68
15.46%
0.87
1.36%
12.10
18.91%
Jan-04
13.12
37.47%
3.49
9.98%
76.59
18.96%
19.53
4.83%
4.07
6.35%
9.56
14.92%
156.20
68.81%
79.56
35.05%
114.47
97.83%
68.17
58.27%
36.25
17.02%
13.60
6.39%
1.38
0.26%
108.71
20.21%
32.41
23.32%
1.87
1.35%
40.10
26.38%
1.68
1.11%
34.95
99.86%
20.96
59.88%
Feb-04
9.43
27.73%
15.94
46.89%
33.87
6.43%
40.10
7.61%
7.20
11.58%
1.04
1.68%
12.40
3.53%
66.90
19.06%
72.53
54.12%
103.51
77.24%
33.90
17.04%
68.84
34.59%
32.08
6.51%
110.80
22.49%
14.68
8.53%
8.92
5.19%
6.06
3.45%
19.39
11.03%
17.61
20.97%
7.65
9.11%
Mar-04
4.74
11.86%
4.20
10.51%
175.65
54.21%
75.72
23.37%
21.72
74.91%
11.58
39.92%
82.30
34.58%
18.24
7.66%
100.48
95.70%
59.39
56.56%
19.66
9.64%
25.07
12.29%
195.52
58.54%
89.61
26.83%
46.37
41.03%
14.49
12.83%
35.28
24.67%
0.37
0.26%
7.74
13.41%
5.35
9.27%
Apr-04
5.03
10.92%
5.03
10.92%
11.65
2.58%
11.65
2.58%
25.09
30.98%
25.09
30.98%
46.79
14.14%
46.79
14.14%
22.25
14.93%
22.25
14.93%
18.53
9.22%
18.53
9.22%
85.90
19.22%
85.90
19.22%
10.49
7.44%
10.49
7.44%
8.89
5.02%
8.89
5.02%
7.68
16.69%
7.68
16.69%
May-04
7.71
16.76%
1.97
4.27%
11.54
2.43%
84.68
17.79%
1.47
2.47%
7.27
12.16%
17.95
5.47%
28.55
8.71%
33.84
27.51%
57.37
46.64%
29.41
12.20%
2.33
0.97%
190.30
58.20%
267.89
81.92%
40.58
20.29%
16.66
8.33%
71.96
29.61%
46.30
19.05%
9.59
12.79%
0.22
0.29%
Jun-04
2.06
5.02%
2.06
5.02%
75.27
21.57%
75.27
21.57%
0.02
0.04%
0.02
0.04%
31.83
10.14%
31.83
10.14%
58.22
29.85%
58.22
29.85%
24.65
13.40%
24.65
13.40%
6.61
1.46%
6.61
1.46%
14.54
9.32%
14.54
9.32%
62.81
28.16%
62.81
28.16%
4.56
6.81%
4.56
6.81%
Jul-04
4.67
12.63%
4.67
12.63%
30.61
7.58%
30.61
7.58%
1.41
2.29%
1.41
2.29%
38.06
14.47%
38.06
14.47%
13.51
10.56%
13.51
10.56%
12.31
5.65%
12.31
5.65%
132.41
22.87%
132.41
22.87%
10.28
7.85%
10.28
7.85%
0.70
0.42%
0.70
0.42%
6.09
9.80%
6.09
9.80%
Aug-04
14.34
49.45%
20.84
71.87%
26.23
6.18%
93.82
22.11%
15.99
21.04%
6.99
9.19%
6.48
2.13%
53.21
17.44%
33.35
33.02%
53.50
52.97%
44.35
25.34%
77.25
44.15%
55.33
16.04%
115.37
33.44%
51.00
45.13%
75.60
66.90%
23.22
13.42%
52.65
30.43%
10.40
19.62%
19.91
37.56%
Sep-04
6.56
13.40%
6.56
13.40%
179.31
77.29%
179.31
77.29%
5.29
8.78%
5.29
8.78%
125.46
67.09%
125.46
67.09%
31.81
25.25%
31.81
25.25%
27.32
11.73%
27.32
11.73%
3.70
0.89%
3.70
0.89%
13.75
9.35%
13.75
9.35%
18.64
9.92%
18.64
9.92%
13.21
16.93%
13.21
16.93%
Oct-04
5.33
15.24%
5.33
15.24%
55.48
15.72%
55.48
15.72%
1.52
2.72%
1.52
2.72%
98.32
50.42%
98.32
50.42%
79.28
118.33%
79.28
118.33%
40.44
23.79%
40.44
23.79%
34.02
7.59%
34.02
7.59%
14.95
11.13%
14.95
11.13%
28.42
17.49%
28.42
17.49%
32.78
105.73%
32.78
105.73%
Nov-04
16.05
30.87%
10.66
20.50%
9.36
2.21%
52.83
12.46%
11.33
14.91%
1.63
2.14%
68.84
30.06%
113.52
49.57%
40.76
46.32%
60.08
68.27%
11.27
5.42%
18.24
8.77%
7.04
1.61%
57.31
13.14%
10.28
8.22%
30.57
24.46%
61.96
50.79%
89.56
73.41%
3.34
5.94%
12.28
21.83%
Dec-04
4.14
9.17%
12.34
27.34%
22.98
7.16%
45.81
14.27%
19.97
46.44%
7.37
17.15%
31.96
14.33%
19.03
8.53%
61.69
93.48%
36.15
54.78%
4.37
2.12%
37.78
18.30%
31.34
7.97%
53.53
13.62%
72.87
108.76%
44.90
67.01%
52.13
39.09%
15.03
11.27%
20.72
45.05%
7.38
16.04%
Jan-05
7.68
24.77%
0.06
0.19%
68.47
24.54%
1.02
0.37%
20.27
50.68%
8.22
20.54%
52.76
29.48%
6.41
3.58%
4.79
4.39%
25.63
23.51%
4.99
2.63%
34.01
17.90%
160.46
58.78%
73.77
27.02%
62.75
83.66%
35.20
46.93%
4.59
2.67%
30.73
17.87%
13.90
35.65%
3.32
8.52%
Feb-05
1.80
4.29%
8.38
19.93%
49.92
11.69%
6.64
1.55%
4.81
7.81%
14.76
23.98%
1.31
0.56%
33.30
14.35%
19.06
16.29%
4.37
3.73%
4.71
2.41%
34.72
17.78%
49.56
10.24%
15.61
3.23%
25.82
24.13%
45.74
42.75%
30.47
24.38%
53.79
43.03%
2.20
4.24%
10.33
19.87%
Mar-05
21.34
92.77%
12.47
54.21%
17.62
4.72%
88.69
23.78%
5.39
8.59%
16.85
26.87%
85.72
60.36%
40.17
28.29%
16.58
24.03%
0.53
0.77%
31.51
13.47%
72.01
30.77%
134.41
47.33%
50.73
17.86%
18.35
20.62%
3.12
3.50%
54.92
59.69%
25.53
27.76%
7.03
15.98%
3.18
7.22%
Apr-05
0.61
1.58%
0.61
1.58%
85.17
20.72%
85.17
20.72%
13.34
20.86%
13.34
20.86%
31.87
18.01%
31.87
18.01%
18.36
16.25%
18.36
16.25%
56.34
22.18%
56.34
22.18%
96.16
36.15%
96.16
36.15%
4.16
4.20%
4.16
4.20%
76.62
95.78%
76.62
95.78%
0.62
1.33%
0.62
1.33%
May-05
6.28
18.47%
12.32
36.24%
0.97
0.27%
55.72
15.31%
18.15
24.86%
9.92
13.59%
63.18
22.48%
30.51
10.86%
40.71
28.27%
25.21
17.51%
45.25
18.70%
15.74
6.50%
104.29
34.19%
165.69
54.32%
9.46
8.68%
5.47
5.02%
24.61
14.56%
2.95
1.75%
9.45
16.29%
2.17
3.73%
Jun-05
8.59
34.38%
8.59
34.38%
76.08
26.05%
76.08
26.05%
7.48
11.44%
7.48
11.44%
51.49
37.58%
51.49
37.58%
39.03
76.52%
39.03
76.52%
19.84
8.59%
19.84
8.59%
1.64
0.45%
1.64
0.45%
22.54
19.10%
22.54
19.10%
7.12
6.09%
7.12
6.09%
17.21
26.89%
17.21
26.89%
Averages
211
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
7.07
7.68
Holdout
MAPE
21.47%
65.01
48.36
14.37%
16.72
12.91
25.81%
100.81
58.44
25.15%
41.32
51.66
41.58%
33.36
28.41
12.98%
57.34
70.03
18.84%
29.74
26.35
23.22%
27.98
32.34
22.94%
13.16
11.94
23.93%
39.25
34.81
23.03%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
7.76
7.79
21.19%
84.65
60.76
16.53%
18.28
11.74
22.31%
83.09
48.70
20.39%
48.74
48.39
38.48%
37.33
30.91
14.78%
59.57
83.48
20.94%
33.47
21.93
18.80%
30.08
30.22
21.34%
12.24
9.74
19.64%
41.52
35.37
21.44%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
18.11
32.93%
18.11
32.93%
19.72
3.74%
19.72
3.74%
20.13
22.13%
20.13
22.13%
48.88
12.93%
48.88
12.93%
130.92
49.22%
130.92
49.22%
32.59
13.75%
32.59
13.75%
34.27
5.99%
34.27
5.99%
3.85
2.09%
3.85
2.09%
10.04
5.23%
10.04
5.23%
1.02
1.72%
1.02
1.72%

Aug-03
15.05
28.40%
9.36
17.66%
9.70
1.79%
92.31
17.06%
2.70
4.20%
6.55
10.17%
71.86
15.39%
12.59
2.70%
116.33
40.53%
90.73
31.61%
44.33
17.25%
12.43
4.84%
6.77
1.31%
69.50
13.49%
34.90
16.62%
8.64
4.11%
48.61
19.84%
19.15
7.82%
20.96
24.38%
11.21
13.03%
Sep-03
4.11
10.03%
4.11
10.03%
0.97
0.19%
0.97
0.19%
15.33
19.40%
15.33
19.40%
2.33
0.65%
2.33
0.65%
63.15
25.84%
63.15
25.84%
21.22
8.84%
21.22
8.84%
163.72
24.26%
163.72
24.26%
9.16
5.15%
9.16
5.15%
41.04
20.94%
41.04
20.94%
12.05
22.74%
12.05
22.74%
Oct-03
3.93
7.79%
12.08
23.96%
105.58
25.38%
183.82
44.19%
30.60
55.63%
43.44
78.98%
14.26
3.70%
41.50
10.75%
44.79
20.73%
83.90
38.84%
33.07
12.34%
2.17
0.81%
85.14
18.67%
166.31
36.47%
27.87
18.21%
55.00
35.94%
16.19
9.25%
44.87
25.64%
13.70
17.56%
4.05
5.19%
Nov-03
17.03
47.29%
17.03
47.29%
9.07
1.77%
9.07
1.77%
31.49
92.62%
31.49
92.62%
50.15
15.11%
50.15
15.11%
119.79
71.73%
119.79
71.73%
49.45
23.89%
49.45
23.89%
12.07
2.39%
12.07
2.39%
55.15
40.86%
55.15
40.86%
76.77
57.29%
76.77
57.29%
20.67
34.03%
20.67
34.03%
Dec-03
Jan-04
0.16
14.78
0.34% 42.23%
9.24
4.82
19.73% 13.78%
4.80
83.65
0.94% 20.71%
98.16
13.88
19.25%
3.44%
26.00
0.78
59.09%
1.22%
12.00
13.45
27.28% 20.98%
109.18
135.40
43.33% 59.65%
36.95
62.92
14.66% 27.72%
40.70
115.03
19.97% 98.31%
8.20
68.62
4.02% 58.65%
31.11
35.72
14.89% 16.77%
16.91
14.03
8.09%
6.58%
2.20
74.57
0.41% 13.86%
109.16
167.26
20.33% 31.09%
17.01
37.43
10.46% 26.93%
18.91
2.15
11.63%
1.54%
6.19
44.14
3.22% 29.04%
33.45
4.91
17.42%
3.23%
6.43
35.44
10.05% 101.27%
17.95
21.35
28.04% 61.01%
Feb-04
15.69
46.16%
23.15
68.08%
15.12
2.87%
61.66
11.70%
14.76
23.74%
7.64
12.30%
6.99
1.99%
44.61
12.71%
46.99
35.07%
74.14
55.33%
19.63
9.86%
52.42
26.34%
18.74
3.80%
52.36
10.63%
29.45
17.12%
8.07
4.69%
20.27
11.54%
3.05
1.73%
17.83
21.23%
7.91
9.41%
Mar-04
7.23
18.09%
2.21
5.53%
187.72
57.94%
85.37
26.35%
15.29
52.71%
6.43
22.17%
57.60
24.20%
1.52
0.64%
97.97
93.30%
57.37
54.64%
8.36
4.10%
34.11
16.72%
165.36
49.51%
65.49
19.61%
48.89
43.27%
16.51
14.61%
47.23
33.02%
9.18
6.42%
7.81
13.53%
5.30
9.18%
Apr-04
9.92
21.56%
9.92
21.56%
41.83
9.28%
41.83
9.28%
18.14
22.40%
18.14
22.40%
99.99
30.21%
99.99
30.21%
53.85
36.14%
53.85
36.14%
11.86
5.90%
11.86
5.90%
84.66
18.94%
84.66
18.94%
17.57
12.46%
17.57
12.46%
2.77
1.57%
2.77
1.57%
4.63
10.07%
4.63
10.07%
May-04
11.95
26.00%
6.85
14.90%
49.59
10.42%
128.43
26.98%
2.60
4.35%
11.96
20.00%
20.79
6.34%
73.11
22.29%
20.63
16.77%
42.17
34.29%
37.09
15.39%
6.50
2.70%
168.34
51.48%
242.64
74.20%
32.88
16.44%
7.82
3.91%
65.68
27.03%
39.09
16.08%
7.77
10.36%
20.19
26.92%
Jun-04
1.06
2.58%
1.06
2.58%
171.99
49.28%
171.99
49.28%
1.74
3.71%
1.74
3.71%
32.06
10.21%
32.06
10.21%
88.36
45.31%
88.36
45.31%
20.00
10.87%
20.00
10.87%
14.90
3.29%
14.90
3.29%
5.07
3.25%
5.07
3.25%
68.98
30.93%
68.98
30.93%
1.95
2.91%
1.95
2.91%
Jul-04
6.05
16.35%
6.05
16.35%
53.60
13.27%
53.60
13.27%
15.86
25.76%
15.86
25.76%
45.28
17.22%
45.28
17.22%
20.22
15.80%
20.22
15.80%
16.73
7.68%
16.73
7.68%
132.64
22.91%
132.64
22.91%
11.49
8.77%
11.49
8.77%
9.86
5.94%
9.86
5.94%
4.02
6.47%
4.02
6.47%
Aug-04
16.58
57.18%
23.42
80.76%
50.76
11.96%
122.03
28.75%
8.47
11.15%
1.65
2.18%
8.21
2.69%
55.19
18.10%
38.29
37.91%
59.18
58.60%
64.83
37.04%
100.80
57.60%
22.17
6.42%
77.24
22.39%
81.41
72.05%
110.58
97.85%
24.67
14.26%
54.32
31.40%
19.04
35.92%
29.84
56.31%
Sep-04
7.71
15.73%
7.71
15.73%
199.20
85.86%
199.20
85.86%
0.89
1.48%
0.89
1.48%
126.65
67.73%
126.65
67.73%
36.73
29.15%
36.73
29.15%
45.39
19.48%
45.39
19.48%
32.08
7.69%
32.08
7.69%
18.25
12.40%
18.25
12.40%
32.74
17.42%
32.74
17.42%
7.51
9.63%
7.51
9.63%
Oct-04
4.19
11.97%
4.19
11.97%
53.19
15.07%
53.19
15.07%
5.47
9.77%
5.47
9.77%
89.36
45.83%
89.36
45.83%
70.46
105.17%
70.46
105.17%
37.36
21.98%
37.36
21.98%
48.42
10.81%
48.42
10.81%
17.15
12.76%
17.15
12.76%
5.94
3.65%
5.94
3.65%
37.89
122.23%
37.89
122.23%
Nov-04
21.42
41.20%
16.84
32.38%
0.50
0.12%
63.02
14.86%
4.24
5.58%
6.52
8.58%
73.29
32.00%
118.63
51.80%
36.51
41.49%
55.19
62.71%
11.52
5.54%
17.95
8.63%
69.13
15.86%
14.10
3.23%
4.25
3.40%
13.86
11.09%
49.11
40.25%
74.77
61.29%
0.87
1.55%
9.44
16.78%
Dec-04
3.43
7.59%
6.29
13.93%
93.40
29.10%
10.52
3.28%
20.45
47.57%
7.76
18.05%
59.96
26.89%
3.37
1.51%
59.70
90.45%
34.56
52.36%
10.98
5.32%
32.50
15.74%
0.75
0.19%
78.00
19.85%
78.62
117.35%
49.50
73.88%
42.79
32.09%
7.56
5.67%
30.98
67.34%
15.58
33.87%
Jan-05
8.39
27.07%
0.51
1.66%
77.39
27.74%
6.12
2.19%
20.00
50.01%
8.00
20.01%
25.07
14.00%
15.75
8.80%
21.12
19.38%
38.70
35.50%
0.93
0.49%
37.25
19.61%
129.40
47.40%
48.92
17.92%
67.69
90.26%
39.16
52.21%
3.99
2.32%
37.59
21.86%
11.70
30.01%
1.56
4.01%
Feb-05
3.05
7.25%
9.81
23.33%
4.86
1.14%
58.46
13.69%
11.00
17.86%
21.88
35.54%
3.77
1.63%
30.46
13.13%
29.00
24.79%
15.80
13.51%
6.22
3.18%
36.44
18.66%
58.73
12.13%
5.06
1.05%
29.87
27.92%
50.40
47.11%
22.59
18.07%
44.73
35.78%
2.97
5.71%
11.21
21.56%
Mar-05
22.11
96.12%
13.09
56.89%
18.21
4.88%
60.03
16.09%
9.72
15.50%
20.32
32.40%
85.25
60.04%
39.80
28.03%
2.09
3.03%
15.47
22.42%
31.74
13.56%
72.19
30.85%
113.52
39.97%
34.01
11.98%
8.43
9.47%
24.54
27.58%
42.32
46.00%
15.46
16.80%
8.14
18.51%
2.29
5.20%
Apr-05
1.00
2.60%
1.00
2.60%
97.37
23.69%
97.37
23.69%
20.36
31.83%
20.36
31.83%
32.74
18.50%
32.74
18.50%
4.36
3.86%
4.36
3.86%
56.83
22.37%
56.83
22.37%
89.76
33.74%
89.76
33.74%
23.90
24.14%
23.90
24.14%
90.67
113.34%
90.67
113.34%
4.21
8.95%
4.21
8.95%
May-05
7.29
21.45%
13.49
39.67%
53.85
14.79%
116.53
32.01%
13.69
18.76%
4.79
6.57%
50.84
18.09%
16.32
5.81%
29.75
20.66%
12.62
8.76%
45.96
18.99%
16.56
6.84%
169.80
55.67%
241.02
79.02%
2.48
2.28%
13.50
12.38%
26.73
15.82%
5.39
3.19%
6.69
11.54%
1.00
1.73%
Jun-05
15.29
61.17%
15.29
61.17%
105.69
36.19%
105.69
36.19%
4.47
6.83%
4.47
6.83%
77.29
56.42%
77.29
56.42%
27.59
54.10%
27.59
54.10%
7.88
3.41%
7.88
3.41%
12.10
3.34%
12.10
3.34%
21.59
18.30%
21.59
18.30%
5.88
5.02%
5.88
5.02%
14.84
23.19%
14.84
23.19%
Averages
212
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
7.79
9.81
Holdout
MAPE
27.05%
68.74
62.82
18.67%
18.38
13.09
25.14%
112.98
55.30
24.36%
46.83
54.76
41.61%
34.58
28.37
13.04%
61.37
71.22
18.75%
31.79
28.52
25.50%
27.29
33.55
23.46%
15.56
12.46
25.45%
42.53
36.99
24.30%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
8.61
9.82
26.44%
89.65
77.21
20.76%
20.49
12.76
22.96%
105.78
48.23
20.56%
51.47
53.00
40.32%
40.27
31.32
15.09%
69.73
83.15
20.61%
31.09
25.08
22.45%
30.42
30.76
21.49%
14.61
11.15
22.26%
46.21
38.25
23.29%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
11.66
21.19%
11.66
21.19%
47.84
9.06%
47.84
9.06%
25.69
28.23%
25.69
28.23%
71.08
18.81%
71.08
18.81%
71.72
26.96%
71.72
26.96%
42.00
17.72%
42.00
17.72%
159.61
27.90%
159.61
27.90%
11.35
6.17%
11.35
6.17%
9.28
4.83%
9.28
4.83%
14.85
25.06%
14.85
25.06%
Aug-03
8.93
16.86%
2.32
4.39%
52.13
9.64%
21.20
3.92%
1.22
1.89%
11.06
17.17%
19.54
4.18%
47.58
10.19%
89.10
31.04%
59.41
20.70%
57.80
22.49%
27.92
10.86%
96.74
18.77%
33.96
6.59%
40.10
19.10%
14.62
6.96%
42.56
17.37%
12.19
4.98%
13.24
15.39%
2.32
2.70%
Sep-03
3.31
8.08%
3.31
8.08%
10.01
1.96%
10.01
1.96%
13.02
16.48%
13.02
16.48%
83.92
23.51%
83.92
23.51%
44.89
18.37%
44.89
18.37%
37.45
15.60%
37.45
15.60%
245.22
36.33%
245.22
36.33%
7.25
4.07%
7.25
4.07%
3.74
1.91%
3.74
1.91%
19.52
36.84%
19.52
36.84%
Oct-03
5.91
11.73%
0.76
1.51%
92.51
22.24%
168.79
40.57%
12.60
22.91%
22.74
41.35%
49.25
12.76%
114.54
29.67%
10.52
4.87%
20.30
9.40%
60.88
22.72%
29.82
11.13%
18.89
4.14%
46.68
10.24%
18.00
11.76%
43.65
28.53%
26.03
14.87%
56.18
32.10%
6.85
8.78%
3.82
4.90%
Nov-03
8.85
24.58%
8.85
24.58%
2.14
0.42%
2.14
0.42%
33.00
97.05%
33.00
97.05%
94.96
28.60%
94.96
28.60%
43.54
26.07%
43.54
26.07%
5.04
2.44%
5.04
2.44%
63.04
12.46%
63.04
12.46%
38.00
28.15%
38.00
28.15%
69.74
52.05%
69.74
52.05%
10.33
17.01%
10.33
17.01%
Dec-03
2.18
4.66%
11.11
23.73%
7.65
1.50%
95.88
18.80%
23.56
53.54%
10.05
22.83%
171.88
68.20%
87.10
34.56%
7.77
3.81%
34.55
16.95%
6.42
3.07%
36.67
17.54%
79.21
14.75%
170.77
31.80%
12.02
7.39%
22.91
14.09%
11.78
6.14%
28.97
15.09%
5.35
8.35%
8.52
13.32%
Jan-04
9.17
26.19%
0.33
0.95%
117.41
29.06%
13.13
3.25%
4.06
6.34%
9.57
14.93%
192.83
84.95%
108.87
47.96%
93.87
80.23%
51.70
44.19%
6.62
3.11%
37.30
17.51%
78.19
14.53%
170.16
31.63%
34.42
24.76%
0.27
0.19%
51.03
33.58%
10.43
6.86%
33.43
95.52%
19.74
56.41%
Feb-04
Mar-04
9.77
3.84
28.72%
9.60%
16.33
4.93
48.03% 12.32%
6.17
197.16
1.17% 60.85%
71.96
92.93
13.65% 28.68%
4.14
35.10
6.66% 121.03%
14.09
22.28
22.66% 76.82%
64.83
168.75
18.47% 70.90%
127.21
87.40
36.24% 36.72%
74.25
103.24
55.41% 98.32%
105.48
61.59
78.72% 58.66%
19.24
14.72
9.67%
7.22%
51.98
29.02
26.12% 14.23%
24.04
142.88
4.88% 42.78%
46.26
47.51
9.39% 14.22%
0.62
59.11
0.36% 52.31%
25.08
24.69
14.58% 21.85%
25.89
59.45
14.74% 41.57%
56.13
18.96
31.95% 13.26%
16.79
9.37
19.98% 16.23%
6.70
4.05
7.98%
7.02%
Apr-04
3.12
6.78%
3.12
6.78%
68.00
15.08%
68.00
15.08%
17.69
21.84%
17.69
21.84%
66.67
20.14%
66.67
20.14%
55.91
37.52%
55.91
37.52%
17.93
8.92%
17.93
8.92%
39.89
8.92%
39.89
8.92%
31.19
22.12%
31.19
22.12%
24.70
13.96%
24.70
13.96%
20.26
44.03%
20.26
44.03%
May-04
4.10
8.92%
2.18
4.75%
44.42
9.33%
122.48
25.73%
2.93
4.90%
12.34
20.64%
63.13
19.25%
121.79
37.13%
75.99
61.78%
105.84
86.05%
20.41
8.47%
12.68
5.26%
164.12
50.19%
237.79
72.72%
27.62
13.81%
1.77
0.88%
42.85
17.64%
12.83
5.28%
9.20
12.27%
0.67
0.89%
Jun-04
0.97
2.36%
0.97
2.36%
161.76
46.35%
161.76
46.35%
15.15
32.24%
15.15
32.24%
71.67
22.82%
71.67
22.82%
1.65
0.85%
1.65
0.85%
36.22
19.68%
36.22
19.68%
37.00
8.17%
37.00
8.17%
14.49
9.29%
14.49
9.29%
23.85
10.70%
23.85
10.70%
2.16
3.23%
2.16
3.23%
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
5.17
12.92
6.62
7.08
13.99% 44.57% 13.50% 20.23%
5.17
19.21
6.62
7.08
13.99% 66.25% 13.50% 20.23%
99.56
76.88
263.32
134.05
24.64% 18.12% 113.50% 37.97%
99.56
152.08
263.32
134.05
24.64% 35.83% 113.50% 37.97%
1.85
11.94
2.38
5.67
3.00% 15.71%
3.94% 10.12%
1.85
2.33
2.38
5.67
3.00%
3.07%
3.94% 10.12%
122.08
61.58
172.17
157.04
46.42% 20.19% 92.07% 80.53%
122.08
116.57
172.17
157.04
46.42% 38.22% 92.07% 80.53%
61.10
83.89
55.79
112.87
47.73% 83.06% 44.28% 168.47%
61.10
111.63
55.79
112.87
47.73% 110.52% 44.28% 168.47%
0.49
43.71
14.58
47.63
0.22% 24.98%
6.26% 28.02%
0.49
76.52
14.58
47.63
0.22% 43.72%
6.26% 28.02%
83.71
147.42
74.38
53.53
14.46% 42.73% 17.84% 11.95%
83.71
221.28
74.38
53.53
14.46% 64.14% 17.84% 11.95%
38.33
58.47
22.19
32.00
29.26% 51.74% 15.08% 23.81%
38.33
84.19
22.19
32.00
29.26% 74.50% 15.08% 23.81%
32.74
27.32
13.18
36.61
19.72% 15.79%
7.01% 22.53%
32.74
57.37
13.18
36.61
19.72% 33.16%
7.01% 22.53%
2.42
11.78
12.64
34.49
3.89% 22.22% 16.21% 111.26%
2.42
21.49
12.64
34.49
3.89% 40.55% 16.21% 111.26%
Nov-04
9.84
18.92%
3.51
6.76%
60.98
14.38%
133.73
31.54%
13.89
18.28%
4.58
6.02%
110.25
48.14%
161.14
70.37%
86.78
98.61%
112.99
128.40%
7.63
3.67%
39.97
19.22%
57.21
13.12%
131.19
30.09%
38.65
30.92%
63.20
50.56%
74.62
61.17%
104.12
85.34%
8.45
15.02%
18.16
32.27%
Dec-04
2.62
5.81%
11.13
24.65%
152.81
47.61%
58.05
18.08%
19.16
44.56%
6.73
15.65%
110.04
49.35%
43.43
19.48%
103.82
157.30%
69.85
105.84%
8.95
4.33%
34.12
16.53%
98.94
25.18%
0.55
0.14%
96.87
144.58%
64.09
95.66%
60.83
45.61%
21.99
16.49%
18.56
40.36%
5.65
12.29%
Jan-05
11.38
36.70%
2.90
9.36%
187.41
67.17%
94.13
33.74%
21.71
54.27%
9.37
23.42%
137.25
76.68%
74.00
41.34%
55.36
50.79%
22.49
20.63%
23.04
12.13%
19.57
10.30%
216.38
79.26%
118.51
43.41%
84.13
112.18%
52.31
69.74%
19.33
11.24%
18.94
11.01%
23.65
60.64%
11.12
28.52%
Feb-05
0.72
1.72%
7.14
16.98%
33.57
7.86%
102.66
24.04%
1.45
2.35%
10.90
17.71%
81.17
34.99%
128.14
55.23%
41.37
35.36%
65.12
55.66%
16.21
8.30%
47.94
24.54%
5.09
1.05%
78.45
16.21%
51.80
48.41%
75.62
70.67%
61.08
48.87%
89.00
71.20%
10.95
21.07%
20.40
39.23%
Mar-05
20.26
88.08%
11.61
50.46%
79.57
21.33%
10.94
2.93%
0.54
0.86%
12.11
19.31%
168.67
118.78%
106.53
75.02%
83.37
120.82%
52.89
76.66%
21.42
9.16%
63.94
27.32%
199.05
70.09%
102.44
36.07%
64.75
72.76%
34.00
38.21%
89.97
97.79%
53.57
58.23%
19.00
43.17%
6.40
14.54%
Apr-05
4.16
10.78%
4.16
10.78%
31.28
7.61%
31.28
7.61%
1.81
2.83%
1.81
2.83%
123.92
70.01%
123.92
70.01%
38.49
34.06%
38.49
34.06%
42.92
16.90%
42.92
16.90%
207.59
78.04%
207.59
78.04%
48.42
48.91%
48.42
48.91%
98.30
122.87%
98.30
122.87%
14.85
31.59%
14.85
31.59%
May-05
8.10
23.84%
14.42
42.41%
72.43
19.90%
137.89
37.88%
10.97
15.03%
1.66
2.28%
13.04
4.64%
57.15
20.34%
8.03
5.58%
30.84
21.41%
30.12
12.45%
1.66
0.69%
166.38
54.55%
237.09
77.73%
35.59
32.65%
57.27
52.55%
6.84
4.05%
33.22
19.66%
2.64
4.55%
11.74
20.23%
Jun-05
16.60
66.42%
16.60
66.42%
137.99
47.26%
137.99
47.26%
3.35
5.12%
3.35
5.12%
152.13
111.04%
152.13
111.04%
99.70
195.49%
99.70
195.49%
16.66
7.21%
16.66
7.21%
101.50
28.00%
101.50
28.00%
25.21
21.37%
25.21
21.37%
53.81
45.99%
53.81
45.99%
4.90
7.66%
4.90
7.66%
Averages
213
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
7.06
7.39
Holdout
MAPE
21.43%
101.79
89.04
26.42%
13.78
11.79
24.55%
106.90
105.33
47.73%
38.50
62.62
61.95%
38.51
24.92
11.45%
78.02
106.67
28.34%
29.42
37.11
34.62%
30.25
40.23
30.50%
15.61
13.57
28.35%
45.98
49.87
31.53%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
7.32
7.31
20.85%
105.46
92.99
25.94%
16.22
11.23
21.86%
95.22
104.04
44.43%
44.33
62.10
59.73%
43.60
32.08
15.33%
79.76
112.84
28.69%
32.54
34.67
31.13%
34.11
39.16
29.42%
16.29
11.55
24.07%
47.48
50.80
30.15%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
18.50
33.64%
18.50
33.64%
21.21
4.02%
21.21
4.02%
13.07
14.36%
13.07
14.36%
86.00
22.75%
86.00
22.75%
147.80
55.56%
147.80
55.56%
44.98
18.98%
44.98
18.98%
47.00
8.22%
47.00
8.22%
30.00
16.30%
30.00
16.30%
4.87
2.54%
4.87
2.54%
10.75
18.15%
10.75
18.15%
Aug-03
11.32
21.37%
5.07
9.57%
17.50
3.23%
61.03
11.28%
12.57
19.51%
24.12
37.44%
106.00
22.70%
51.85
11.10%
108.80
37.91%
82.07
28.59%
39.98
15.55%
7.42
2.89%
27.45
5.33%
108.86
21.13%
34.00
16.19%
7.60
3.62%
58.00
23.67%
29.95
12.22%
23.00
26.74%
13.55
15.76%
Sep-03
5.56
13.56%
5.56
13.56%
13.25
2.60%
13.25
2.60%
5.00
6.33%
5.00
6.33%
7.50
2.10%
7.50
2.10%
42.76
17.50%
42.76
17.50%
17.32
7.22%
17.32
7.22%
157.36
23.31%
157.36
23.31%
18.44
10.36%
18.44
10.36%
27.50
14.03%
27.50
14.03%
13.10
24.72%
13.10
24.72%
Oct-03
Nov-03
0.99
18.00
1.96% 50.00%
8.70
18.00
17.26% 50.00%
91.00
21.50
21.88%
4.19%
167.05
21.50
40.16%
4.19%
34.00
43.71
61.82% 128.57%
47.35
43.71
86.09% 128.57%
46.50
90.50
12.05% 27.26%
4.42
90.50
1.15% 27.26%
8.09
109.50
3.75% 65.57%
41.71
109.50
19.31% 65.57%
39.30
40.00
14.67% 19.32%
5.00
40.00
1.87% 19.32%
98.91
37.64
21.69%
7.44%
182.15
37.64
39.94%
7.44%
15.50
62.00
10.13% 45.93%
40.78
62.00
26.65% 45.93%
7.00
84.50
4.00% 63.06%
18.20
84.50
10.40% 63.06%
15.78
11.88
20.23% 19.55%
6.44
11.88
8.26% 19.55%
Dec-03
0.17
0.36%
9.23
19.71%
15.63
3.06%
89.50
17.55%
27.71
62.99%
13.37
30.39%
160.00
63.49%
77.60
30.79%
61.85
30.34%
8.71
4.27%
39.51
18.90%
10.19
4.88%
58.14
10.83%
60.89
11.34%
31.36
19.29%
7.43
4.57%
28.50
14.84%
15.60
8.13%
5.50
8.59%
8.40
13.13%
Jan-04
10.70
30.56%
1.56
4.45%
59.13
14.64%
33.50
8.29%
2.88
4.49%
10.52
16.41%
144.50
63.66%
70.20
30.93%
113.18
96.73%
67.14
57.39%
41.01
19.25%
9.79
4.60%
27.46
5.10%
85.64
15.92%
26.47
19.04%
6.62
4.77%
33.50
22.04%
3.60
2.37%
30.50
87.14%
17.40
49.71%
Feb-04
9.20
27.05%
15.68
46.11%
62.50
11.86%
7.17
1.36%
17.67
28.42%
10.99
17.68%
8.00
2.28%
61.85
17.62%
57.50
42.91%
86.23
64.35%
38.50
19.35%
74.13
37.25%
11.71
2.38%
60.44
12.27%
28.00
16.28%
6.40
3.72%
21.18
12.06%
1.99
1.13%
14.63
17.41%
4.22
5.03%
Mar-04
1.42
3.54%
6.87
17.17%
187.50
57.87%
85.20
26.30%
10.00
34.48%
2.20
7.59%
54.00
22.69%
4.40
1.85%
80.41
76.59%
43.33
41.27%
4.00
1.96%
37.60
18.43%
187.50
56.14%
83.20
24.91%
35.80
31.69%
6.04
5.35%
20.00
13.99%
12.60
8.81%
4.65
8.06%
7.82
13.56%
Apr-04
5.08
11.05%
5.08
11.05%
6.00
1.33%
6.00
1.33%
26.94
33.26%
26.94
33.26%
91.50
27.64%
91.50
27.64%
11.41
7.66%
11.41
7.66%
10.00
4.98%
10.00
4.98%
90.60
20.27%
90.60
20.27%
9.80
6.95%
9.80
6.95%
5.00
2.82%
5.00
2.82%
3.50
7.61%
3.50
7.61%
May-04
11.48
24.97%
6.31
13.72%
10.50
2.21%
59.32
12.46%
3.34
5.59%
12.81
21.42%
39.00
11.89%
4.35
1.33%
2.50
2.03%
21.33
17.34%
35.00
14.52%
4.10
1.70%
188.38
57.61%
265.68
81.25%
44.50
22.25%
21.18
10.59%
79.16
32.58%
54.58
22.46%
15.50
20.67%
6.58
8.77%
Jun-04
4.00
9.76%
4.00
9.76%
76.50
21.92%
76.50
21.92%
1.42
3.02%
1.42
3.02%
19.50
6.21%
19.50
6.21%
75.50
38.72%
75.50
38.72%
17.50
9.51%
17.50
9.51%
39.64
8.75%
39.64
8.75%
13.50
8.65%
13.50
8.65%
63.66
28.55%
63.66
28.55%
3.86
5.76%
3.86
5.76%
Jul-04
6.00
16.22%
6.00
16.22%
16.50
4.08%
16.50
4.08%
6.55
10.65%
6.55
10.65%
21.50
8.17%
21.50
8.17%
1.00
0.78%
1.00
0.78%
15.50
7.11%
15.50
7.11%
188.54
32.56%
188.54
32.56%
4.00
3.05%
4.00
3.05%
6.00
3.61%
6.00
3.61%
10.31
16.58%
10.31
16.58%
Aug-04
16.99
58.59%
23.89
82.38%
39.10
9.21%
108.63
25.60%
5.60
7.37%
4.96
6.53%
24.50
8.03%
73.93
24.24%
35.00
34.65%
55.40
54.85%
46.00
26.29%
79.15
45.23%
41.96
12.16%
100.00
28.99%
57.50
50.88%
83.08
73.52%
37.00
21.39%
68.50
39.60%
7.50
14.15%
16.58
31.27%
Sep-04
5.51
11.24%
5.51
11.24%
180.50
77.80%
180.50
77.80%
6.87
11.39%
6.87
11.39%
134.00
71.66%
134.00
71.66%
33.00
26.19%
33.00
26.19%
20.50
8.80%
20.50
8.80%
27.00
6.47%
27.00
6.47%
30.85
20.96%
30.85
20.96%
45.07
23.98%
45.07
23.98%
7.00
8.97%
7.00
8.97%
Oct-04
4.00
11.43%
4.00
11.43%
23.50
6.66%
23.50
6.66%
1.72
3.08%
1.72
3.08%
93.50
47.95%
93.50
47.95%
94.50
141.04%
94.50
141.04%
31.00
18.24%
31.00
18.24%
68.08
15.20%
68.08
15.20%
9.12
6.78%
9.12
6.78%
32.04
19.72%
32.04
19.72%
33.58
108.34%
33.58
108.34%
Nov-04
19.00
36.54%
14.05
27.02%
9.80
2.31%
52.33
12.34%
7.22
9.50%
3.09
4.07%
55.00
24.02%
97.60
42.62%
26.50
30.11%
43.68
49.63%
11.50
5.53%
17.98
8.64%
26.00
5.96%
95.30
21.86%
3.00
2.40%
15.30
12.24%
47.50
38.93%
72.93
59.77%
1.32
2.34%
9.96
17.70%
Dec-04
6.14
13.59%
13.94
30.88%
7.20
2.24%
58.44
18.21%
25.13
58.45%
11.51
26.76%
23.00
10.31%
26.20
11.75%
47.50
71.97%
24.80
37.58%
2.39
1.16%
43.19
20.93%
12.00
3.05%
88.20
22.44%
63.08
94.14%
37.06
55.31%
47.10
35.32%
11.01
8.25%
19.50
42.39%
6.40
13.91%
Jan-05
11.00
35.48%
2.60
8.39%
13.50
4.84%
45.00
16.13%
18.13
45.33%
6.51
16.27%
12.00
6.70%
26.20
14.64%
12.50
11.47%
31.80
29.17%
11.50
6.05%
28.80
15.16%
159.46
58.41%
72.97
26.73%
65.77
87.69%
37.61
50.15%
3.20
1.86%
31.84
18.51%
15.50
39.74%
4.60
11.79%
Feb-05
1.47
3.50%
8.00
19.03%
38.50
9.02%
19.78
4.63%
4.45
7.23%
14.35
23.31%
20.00
8.62%
11.80
5.09%
39.50
33.76%
27.88
23.82%
6.31
3.23%
22.04
11.28%
42.04
8.69%
24.26
5.01%
22.69
21.21%
42.15
39.39%
17.23
13.79%
38.57
30.85%
8.37
16.09%
1.82
3.50%
Mar-05
25.57
111.17%
15.85
68.93%
0.50
0.13%
75.00
20.11%
3.21
5.12%
15.11
24.09%
84.00
59.15%
38.80
27.32%
8.00
11.59%
7.40
10.72%
26.81
11.46%
68.24
29.16%
130.50
45.95%
47.60
16.76%
7.00
7.87%
12.20
13.71%
35.68
38.79%
10.15
11.03%
7.13
16.21%
3.09
7.03%
Apr-05
0.50
1.30%
0.50
1.30%
111.00
27.01%
111.00
27.01%
22.46
35.12%
22.46
35.12%
24.00
13.56%
24.00
13.56%
25.50
22.57%
25.50
22.57%
55.81
21.97%
55.81
21.97%
67.00
25.19%
67.00
25.19%
28.00
28.28%
28.00
28.28%
72.68
90.85%
72.68
90.85%
4.50
9.57%
4.50
9.57%
May-05
2.51
7.40%
7.99
23.50%
11.00
3.02%
41.95
11.52%
22.22
30.44%
14.61
20.01%
75.50
26.87%
44.68
15.90%
31.00
21.53%
14.05
9.76%
49.34
20.39%
20.45
8.45%
73.50
24.10%
130.28
42.71%
18.00
16.51%
4.35
3.99%
20.50
12.13%
1.77
1.05%
12.50
21.55%
5.68
9.78%
Jun-05
7.51
30.06%
7.51
30.06%
108.00
36.99%
108.00
36.99%
3.24
4.96%
3.24
4.96%
50.00
36.50%
50.00
36.50%
42.00
82.35%
42.00
82.35%
16.34
7.08%
16.34
7.08%
21.54
5.94%
21.54
5.94%
20.00
16.95%
20.00
16.95%
8.50
7.26%
8.50
7.26%
16.00
25.00%
16.00
25.00%
Averages
214
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
7.33
8.44
Holdout
MAPE
23.51%
65.93
47.55
13.84%
19.72
13.55
26.31%
103.99
61.25
25.26%
44.40
50.64
40.14%
34.75
27.50
12.56%
53.65
76.23
19.61%
32.12
28.27
24.16%
25.97
33.56
22.58%
15.34
12.33
24.40%
40.32
35.93
23.24%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
8.33
8.93
24.02%
83.19
61.74
17.19%
21.24
13.44
24.53%
90.70
50.49
20.84%
49.75
47.44
37.75%
36.12
29.04
13.90%
57.65
89.58
21.86%
34.05
23.06
19.66%
29.11
30.05
20.46%
13.59
9.46
18.89%
42.37
36.32
21.91%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Absolute Error
Absolute Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
13.53
24.59%
13.53
24.59%
9.22
1.75%
9.22
1.75%
15.42
16.94%
15.42
16.94%
49.70
13.15%
49.70
13.15%
147.74
55.54%
147.74
55.54%
43.08
18.18%
43.08
18.18%
40.80
7.13%
40.80
7.13%
15.30
8.32%
15.30
8.32%
7.02
3.66%
7.02
3.66%
11.51
19.42%
11.51
19.42%
Aug-03
10.76
20.30%
4.42
8.35%
8.53
1.58%
71.34
13.19%
6.89
10.69%
17.58
27.29%
118.90
25.46%
66.69
14.28%
127.38
44.38%
103.44
36.04%
51.69
20.11%
20.89
8.13%
6.21
1.20%
84.43
16.39%
45.90
21.86%
21.29
10.14%
52.55
21.45%
23.68
9.67%
17.20
20.00%
6.88
8.00%
Sep-03
2.81
6.86%
2.81
6.86%
2.40
0.47%
2.40
0.47%
1.01
1.28%
1.01
1.28%
26.40
7.39%
26.40
7.39%
68.00
27.83%
68.00
27.83%
25.05
10.44%
25.05
10.44%
146.83
21.75%
146.83
21.75%
17.54
9.86%
17.54
9.86%
23.03
11.75%
23.03
11.75%
13.08
24.68%
13.08
24.68%
Oct-03
Nov-03
1.19
15.79
2.37% 43.86%
6.19
15.79
12.28% 43.86%
101.80
15.10
24.47%
2.94%
179.47
15.10
43.14%
2.94%
29.00
42.57
52.73% 125.21%
41.60
42.57
75.64% 125.21%
32.50
68.20
8.42% 20.54%
20.53
68.20
5.32% 20.54%
2.80
86.14
1.29% 51.58%
35.62
86.14
16.49% 51.58%
41.18
33.48
15.36% 16.17%
7.15
33.48
2.67% 16.17%
92.44
29.02
20.27%
5.74%
174.71
29.02
38.31%
5.74%
18.30
51.40
11.96% 38.07%
44.00
51.40
28.75% 38.07%
1.70
69.70
0.97% 52.01%
28.21
69.70
16.12% 52.01%
15.44
11.17
19.80% 18.39%
6.06
11.17
7.76% 18.39%
Dec-03
Jan-04
1.25
13.56
2.66% 38.74%
8.37
3.85
17.87% 10.99%
10.60
76.48
2.08% 18.93%
93.52
19.62
18.34%
4.86%
33.83
3.57
76.88%
5.56%
18.26
9.97
41.51% 15.55%
136.60
165.70
54.21% 73.00%
58.88
87.16
23.37% 38.40%
51.43
126.71
25.23% 108.30%
0.38
77.97
0.19% 66.64%
33.54
41.30
16.05% 19.39%
14.96
9.56
7.16%
4.49%
55.77
7.12
10.38%
1.32%
62.79
101.91
11.69% 18.94%
23.67
35.98
14.55% 25.89%
13.59
0.99
8.36%
0.71%
12.70
45.00
6.61% 29.61%
28.24
5.60
14.71%
3.68%
1.37
35.22
2.14% 100.64%
11.70
21.18
18.29% 60.51%
Feb-04
9.02
26.52%
15.47
45.50%
40.85
7.75%
32.07
6.09%
9.82
15.80%
1.97
3.17%
15.70
4.47%
70.70
20.14%
75.17
56.10%
106.55
79.51%
37.90
19.05%
73.44
36.90%
33.01
6.70%
111.87
22.71%
15.51
9.02%
7.96
4.63%
5.88
3.35%
19.59
11.15%
17.10
20.36%
7.07
8.41%
Mar-04
3.71
9.28%
5.03
12.58%
168.13
51.89%
69.70
21.51%
17.70
61.03%
8.36
28.83%
75.30
31.64%
12.64
5.31%
94.27
89.78%
54.41
51.82%
19.30
9.46%
25.36
12.43%
191.30
57.28%
86.24
25.82%
40.94
36.23%
10.15
8.98%
28.60
20.00%
5.72
4.00%
7.00
12.13%
5.94
10.30%
Apr-04
5.71
12.42%
5.71
12.42%
7.80
1.73%
7.80
1.73%
29.85
36.85%
29.85
36.85%
59.60
18.01%
59.60
18.01%
13.95
9.36%
13.95
9.36%
15.10
7.51%
15.10
7.51%
76.20
17.05%
76.20
17.05%
5.68
4.03%
5.68
4.03%
14.30
8.08%
14.30
8.08%
7.15
15.54%
7.15
15.54%
May-04
8.92
19.39%
3.36
7.30%
9.30
1.95%
82.09
17.25%
3.50
5.85%
4.95
8.27%
35.90
10.95%
7.91
2.41%
23.17
18.83%
45.09
36.66%
35.00
14.52%
4.10
1.70%
189.50
57.95%
266.97
81.64%
43.48
21.74%
20.00
10.00%
75.33
31.00%
50.18
20.65%
12.03
16.03%
2.58
3.44%
Jun-04
3.12
7.60%
3.12
7.60%
70.50
20.20%
70.50
20.20%
0.47
1.01%
0.47
1.01%
42.90
13.66%
42.90
13.66%
69.02
35.39%
69.02
35.39%
20.80
11.30%
20.80
11.30%
10.28
2.27%
10.28
2.27%
15.14
9.70%
15.14
9.70%
63.50
28.47%
63.50
28.47%
5.31
7.93%
5.31
7.93%
Jul-04
3.70
10.00%
3.70
10.00%
19.40
4.80%
19.40
4.80%
1.61
2.61%
1.61
2.61%
33.70
12.81%
33.70
12.81%
1.60
1.25%
1.60
1.25%
15.30
7.02%
15.30
7.02%
147.69
25.51%
147.69
25.51%
7.60
5.80%
7.60
5.80%
1.96
1.18%
1.96
1.18%
6.15
9.90%
6.15
9.90%
Aug-04
14.59
50.32%
21.13
72.87%
18.80
4.43%
85.28
20.10%
15.76
20.74%
6.73
8.85%
8.20
2.69%
55.18
18.09%
27.30
27.03%
46.55
46.08%
42.40
24.23%
75.01
42.86%
35.95
10.42%
93.09
26.98%
49.10
43.45%
73.42
64.97%
23.47
13.57%
52.94
30.60%
10.74
20.27%
20.31
38.31%
Sep-04
5.60
11.44%
5.60
11.44%
173.00
74.57%
173.00
74.57%
4.43
7.35%
4.43
7.35%
127.00
67.91%
127.00
67.91%
29.20
23.17%
29.20
23.17%
26.50
11.37%
26.50
11.37%
14.92
3.58%
14.92
3.58%
14.75
10.02%
14.75
10.02%
23.87
12.70%
23.87
12.70%
13.73
17.60%
13.73
17.60%
Oct-04
5.90
16.85%
5.90
16.85%
53.60
15.18%
53.60
15.18%
2.78
4.97%
2.78
4.97%
103.10
52.87%
103.10
52.87%
82.20
122.69%
82.20
122.69%
40.70
23.94%
40.70
23.94%
29.67
6.62%
29.67
6.62%
18.92
14.08%
18.92
14.08%
37.14
22.86%
37.14
22.86%
33.57
108.28%
33.57
108.28%
Nov-04
16.50
31.73%
11.18
21.49%
15.64
3.69%
45.61
10.76%
11.75
15.47%
2.12
2.79%
67.50
29.48%
111.98
48.90%
42.10
47.84%
61.62
70.02%
11.70
5.63%
17.75
8.53%
1.00
0.23%
64.25
14.74%
10.70
8.56%
31.06
24.84%
65.90
54.02%
94.09
77.12%
4.48
7.97%
13.60
24.17%
Dec-04
5.34
11.82%
13.30
29.46%
14.82
4.62%
52.34
16.31%
20.92
48.65%
8.13
18.92%
27.30
12.24%
22.76
10.21%
59.80
90.61%
34.64
52.48%
1.31
0.64%
40.23
19.49%
38.40
9.77%
47.88
12.18%
67.56
100.84%
40.65
60.67%
49.21
36.90%
12.69
9.52%
20.23
43.99%
6.99
15.19%
Jan-05
7.20
23.23%
0.44
1.42%
57.08
20.46%
10.14
3.63%
21.84
54.59%
9.47
23.67%
42.40
23.69%
1.88
1.05%
11.40
10.46%
30.92
28.37%
4.70
2.47%
34.24
18.02%
158.17
57.94%
71.94
26.35%
58.60
78.13%
31.88
42.51%
0.57
0.33%
33.95
19.74%
13.62
34.92%
3.09
7.93%
Feb-05
1.97
4.69%
8.57
20.39%
62.66
14.67%
8.01
1.88%
5.30
8.61%
15.33
24.91%
14.00
6.03%
18.70
8.06%
26.40
22.56%
12.81
10.95%
2.99
1.53%
32.73
16.76%
57.32
11.84%
6.68
1.38%
24.05
22.47%
43.70
40.84%
27.43
21.94%
50.29
40.23%
0.71
1.36%
8.61
16.56%
Mar-05
22.55
98.06%
13.44
58.45%
23.60
6.33%
93.48
25.06%
5.48
8.74%
16.93
26.99%
73.60
51.83%
30.48
21.46%
9.80
14.20%
5.96
8.64%
31.74
13.57%
72.20
30.85%
135.28
47.64%
51.43
18.11%
16.89
18.98%
4.29
4.82%
49.23
53.51%
20.99
22.81%
5.28
12.00%
4.58
10.40%
Apr-05
1.27
3.30%
1.27
3.30%
83.00
20.19%
83.00
20.19%
14.26
22.30%
14.26
22.30%
26.80
15.14%
26.80
15.14%
25.30
22.39%
25.30
22.39%
57.48
22.63%
57.48
22.63%
93.09
35.00%
93.09
35.00%
10.46
10.57%
10.46
10.57%
69.46
86.82%
69.46
86.82%
3.25
6.91%
3.25
6.91%
May-05
6.34
18.64%
12.39
36.44%
2.90
0.80%
51.27
14.08%
20.18
27.64%
12.26
16.79%
67.00
23.84%
34.90
12.42%
42.50
29.51%
27.28
18.94%
44.80
18.51%
15.22
6.29%
92.70
30.39%
152.36
49.95%
17.80
16.33%
4.12
3.78%
28.53
16.88%
7.46
4.41%
10.67
18.40%
3.57
6.16%
Jun-05
7.52
30.09%
7.52
30.09%
73.20
25.07%
73.20
25.07%
9.52
14.57%
9.52
14.57%
47.50
34.67%
47.50
34.67%
40.10
78.63%
40.10
78.63%
20.17
8.73%
20.17
8.73%
9.76
2.69%
9.76
2.69%
28.60
24.24%
28.60
24.24%
5.04
4.30%
5.04
4.30%
18.40
28.75%
18.40
28.75%
Averages
215
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
10.80
7.83
Holdout
MAPE
21.87%
101.78
46.60
13.77%
24.50
13.64
26.92%
135.58
61.06
25.59%
62.93
53.48
42.25%
50.99
29.05
13.24%
96.77
70.52
18.78%
48.48
27.24
23.53%
42.79
32.55
22.58%
25.04
12.27
24.47%
59.97
35.42
23.30%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
11.85
8.00
21.77%
120.81
58.38
15.96%
25.70
12.32
23.18%
114.90
49.39
20.23%
70.20
50.27
39.61%
54.56
30.85
14.73%
94.59
82.28
20.52%
51.66
22.19
18.69%
45.31
31.19
21.51%
23.71
10.23
20.53%
61.33
35.51
21.67%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
15.43
28.05%
15.43
28.05%
17.38
3.29%
17.38
3.29%
12.56
13.80%
12.56
13.80%
57.00
15.08%
57.00
15.08%
144.60
54.36%
144.60
54.36%
39.78
16.78%
39.78
16.78%
35.70
6.24%
35.70
6.24%
14.20
7.72%
14.20
7.72%
6.72
3.50%
6.72
3.50%
9.31
15.71%
9.31
15.71%
Aug-03
9.72
18.35%
3.23
6.10%
5.19
0.96%
75.19
13.90%
6.70
10.40%
17.37
26.96%
105.10
22.51%
50.82
10.88%
115.38
40.20%
89.64
31.23%
46.69
18.17%
15.14
5.89%
9.75
1.89%
88.51
17.18%
41.50
19.76%
16.23
7.73%
54.53
22.26%
25.95
10.59%
18.60
21.63%
8.49
9.87%
Sep-03
3.79
9.24%
3.79
9.24%
2.40
0.47%
2.40
0.47%
1.61
2.04%
1.61
2.04%
28.70
8.04%
28.70
8.04%
63.32
25.91%
63.32
25.91%
23.91
9.96%
23.91
9.96%
151.85
22.50%
151.85
22.50%
20.84
11.71%
20.84
11.71%
26.73
13.64%
26.73
13.64%
13.70
25.85%
13.70
25.85%
Oct-03
Nov-03
0.23
16.31
0.45% 45.31%
7.30
16.31
14.48% 45.31%
98.50
20.60
23.68%
4.02%
175.68
20.60
42.23%
4.02%
32.00
40.31
58.18% 118.57%
45.05
40.31
81.91% 118.57%
34.50
84.80
8.94% 25.54%
18.23
84.80
4.72% 25.54%
7.30
96.62
3.38% 57.86%
40.79
96.62
18.88% 57.86%
39.98
37.14
14.92% 17.94%
5.77
37.14
2.15% 17.94%
99.89
26.77
21.91%
5.29%
183.28
26.77
40.19%
5.29%
20.10
57.10
13.14% 42.30%
46.07
57.10
30.11% 42.30%
1.60
79.80
0.91% 59.55%
28.09
79.80
16.05% 59.55%
16.22
13.25
20.79% 21.81%
6.95
13.25
8.91% 21.81%
Dec-03
Jan-04
0.15
13.30
0.33% 37.99%
9.49
3.64
20.26% 10.39%
8.83
63.98
1.73% 15.84%
94.94
29.62
18.62%
7.33%
32.63
2.62
74.16%
4.09%
17.30
10.72
39.32% 16.73%
134.50
157.60
53.37% 69.43%
57.20
80.68
22.70% 35.54%
49.27
119.61
24.17% 102.23%
1.35
72.29
0.66% 61.78%
33.85
42.40
16.19% 19.91%
14.72
8.68
7.04%
4.07%
66.07
1.19
12.30%
0.22%
54.55
106.65
10.16% 19.82%
23.06
30.28
14.18% 21.79%
14.07
3.57
8.65%
2.57%
13.10
38.00
6.82% 25.00%
27.92
0.00
14.54%
0.00%
0.74
34.42
1.16% 98.36%
12.20
20.54
19.07% 58.69%
Feb-04
8.52
25.05%
14.90
43.81%
40.57
7.70%
32.39
6.15%
14.32
23.04%
7.15
11.50%
13.20
3.76%
67.83
19.32%
67.44
50.33%
97.65
72.87%
34.60
17.39%
69.64
35.00%
16.11
3.27%
92.44
18.76%
19.81
11.52%
3.02
1.76%
12.08
6.88%
12.46
7.09%
16.33
19.44%
6.18
7.35%
Mar-04
3.35
8.39%
5.32
13.29%
177.53
54.79%
77.22
23.83%
16.60
57.24%
7.48
25.79%
61.90
26.01%
1.92
0.81%
93.05
88.62%
53.44
50.90%
13.40
6.57%
30.08
14.74%
199.40
59.70%
92.72
27.76%
41.90
37.08%
10.92
9.66%
30.30
21.19%
4.36
3.05%
5.60
9.70%
7.06
12.24%
Apr-04
5.81
12.63%
5.81
12.63%
3.10
0.69%
3.10
0.69%
26.84
33.14%
26.84
33.14%
70.10
21.18%
70.10
21.18%
8.95
6.01%
8.95
6.01%
15.70
7.81%
15.70
7.81%
79.40
17.77%
79.40
17.77%
6.08
4.31%
6.08
4.31%
12.50
7.06%
12.50
7.06%
4.57
9.94%
4.57
9.94%
May-04
10.20
22.18%
4.83
10.51%
11.00
2.31%
84.05
17.66%
1.68
2.82%
7.03
11.76%
26.00
7.93%
19.30
5.88%
16.18
13.16%
37.06
30.13%
36.00
14.94%
5.25
2.18%
185.07
56.60%
261.88
80.09%
42.54
21.27%
18.92
9.46%
76.96
31.67%
52.05
21.42%
10.03
13.37%
0.28
0.37%
Jun-04
2.62
6.38%
2.62
6.38%
62.50
17.91%
62.50
17.91%
3.04
6.46%
3.04
6.46%
41.80
13.31%
41.80
13.31%
70.22
36.01%
70.22
36.01%
19.90
10.82%
19.90
10.82%
30.68
6.77%
30.68
6.77%
17.74
11.37%
17.74
11.37%
64.40
28.88%
64.40
28.88%
3.04
4.54%
3.04
4.54%
Jul-04
4.90
13.24%
4.90
13.24%
11.80
2.92%
11.80
2.92%
0.27
0.45%
0.27
0.45%
31.70
12.05%
31.70
12.05%
3.10
2.42%
3.10
2.42%
15.10
6.93%
15.10
6.93%
152.27
26.30%
152.27
26.30%
4.50
3.44%
4.50
3.44%
1.83
1.10%
1.83
1.10%
9.95
16.01%
9.95
16.01%
Aug-04
15.19
52.39%
21.82
75.24%
34.00
8.01%
102.76
24.21%
12.68
16.69%
3.18
4.19%
17.20
5.64%
65.53
21.49%
29.10
28.81%
48.62
48.13%
46.10
26.34%
79.27
45.29%
35.25
10.22%
92.28
26.75%
57.80
51.15%
83.42
73.82%
33.47
19.35%
64.44
37.25%
12.47
23.53%
22.29
42.06%
Sep-04
6.10
12.46%
6.10
12.46%
162.80
70.17%
162.80
70.17%
7.83
12.99%
7.83
12.99%
125.30
67.01%
125.30
67.01%
33.80
26.83%
33.80
26.83%
28.20
12.10%
28.20
12.10%
14.31
3.43%
14.31
3.43%
16.25
11.04%
16.25
11.04%
28.47
15.15%
28.47
15.15%
11.63
14.91%
11.63
14.91%
Oct-04
5.00
14.28%
5.00
14.28%
46.40
13.14%
46.40
13.14%
2.96
5.28%
2.96
5.28%
96.60
49.54%
96.60
49.54%
82.70
123.43%
82.70
123.43%
38.40
22.59%
38.40
22.59%
54.87
12.25%
54.87
12.25%
12.02
8.94%
12.02
8.94%
29.44
18.12%
29.44
18.12%
32.28
104.14%
32.28
104.14%
Nov-04
17.70
34.04%
12.56
24.15%
8.10
1.91%
54.28
12.80%
8.85
11.65%
1.22
1.60%
66.60
29.08%
110.94
48.45%
32.70
37.16%
50.81
57.73%
12.60
6.06%
16.71
8.03%
11.80
2.71%
51.83
11.89%
6.40
5.12%
26.11
20.89%
60.90
49.92%
88.34
72.41%
3.08
5.48%
11.99
21.31%
Dec-04
4.14
9.16%
12.34
27.33%
2.38
0.74%
66.10
20.59%
20.79
48.35%
8.03
18.68%
19.70
8.83%
28.84
12.93%
59.60
90.30%
34.48
52.24%
2.81
1.36%
39.03
18.91%
22.20
5.65%
60.84
15.48%
69.18
103.25%
41.94
62.60%
51.40
38.54%
14.45
10.83%
21.82
47.43%
8.25
17.94%
Jan-05
7.80
25.16%
0.04
0.13%
49.94
17.90%
15.85
5.68%
19.84
49.59%
7.87
19.67%
31.40
17.54%
10.68
5.97%
14.80
13.58%
33.64
30.86%
4.20
2.21%
34.64
18.23%
168.46
61.71%
80.17
29.37%
60.74
80.98%
33.59
44.79%
0.49
0.28%
34.79
20.23%
11.42
29.27%
1.33
3.42%
Feb-05
2.27
5.40%
8.92
21.21%
43.46
10.18%
14.07
3.30%
6.88
11.17%
17.14
27.85%
9.80
4.22%
23.53
10.14%
30.20
25.81%
17.18
14.68%
0.49
0.25%
29.86
15.29%
55.42
11.45%
8.86
1.83%
21.83
20.40%
41.15
38.46%
20.83
16.67%
42.71
34.17%
1.47
2.82%
6.11
11.76%
Mar-05
23.57
102.47%
14.25
61.98%
26.80
7.18%
96.04
25.75%
6.78
10.82%
17.97
28.65%
76.40
53.80%
32.72
23.04%
9.70
14.06%
6.04
8.75%
28.11
12.01%
69.28
29.61%
129.79
45.70%
47.03
16.56%
10.15
11.41%
9.68
10.87%
46.32
50.35%
18.66
20.28%
6.78
15.41%
3.38
7.67%
Apr-05
0.83
2.15%
0.83
2.15%
97.50
23.72%
97.50
23.72%
17.86
27.93%
17.86
27.93%
21.80
12.32%
21.80
12.32%
23.20
20.53%
23.20
20.53%
59.28
23.34%
59.28
23.34%
76.79
28.87%
76.79
28.87%
15.46
15.62%
15.46
15.62%
74.46
93.07%
74.46
93.07%
4.97
10.58%
4.97
10.58%
May-05
6.03
17.73%
12.03
35.39%
7.70
2.12%
63.46
17.43%
18.32
25.10%
10.12
13.87%
66.10
23.52%
33.87
12.05%
37.40
25.97%
21.41
14.87%
45.91
18.97%
16.49
6.81%
101.80
33.38%
162.82
53.38%
13.80
12.66%
0.48
0.44%
29.36
17.37%
8.42
4.98%
10.07
17.37%
2.88
4.97%
Jun-05
6.72
26.89%
6.72
26.89%
82.60
28.29%
82.60
28.29%
7.25
11.09%
7.25
11.09%
43.80
31.97%
43.80
31.97%
36.10
70.78%
36.10
70.78%
15.77
6.83%
15.77
6.83%
8.66
2.39%
8.66
2.39%
27.20
23.05%
27.20
23.05%
2.96
2.53%
2.96
2.53%
17.90
27.97%
17.90
27.97%
Averages
216
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
10.87
7.90
Holdout
MAPE
22.07%
100.47
45.21
13.32%
24.93
13.39
26.46%
132.25
59.23
24.61%
63.21
51.85
40.91%
50.71
28.35
12.93%
96.67
72.23
19.10%
48.48
27.10
23.47%
42.41
33.19
22.91%
25.68
12.07
24.05%
59.57
35.05
22.98%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
11.96
8.26
22.29%
120.39
62.03
16.84%
26.24
12.42
23.34%
118.37
50.15
20.41%
69.80
48.62
38.24%
54.48
30.32
14.52%
94.86
83.97
20.88%
51.43
22.52
19.22%
44.93
31.25
21.48%
24.32
9.94
19.88%
61.68
35.95
21.71%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
14.66
26.65%
14.66
26.65%
50.21
9.51%
50.21
9.51%
25.54
28.07%
25.54
28.07%
39.89
10.55%
39.89
10.55%
110.23
41.44%
110.23
41.44%
16.93
7.14%
16.93
7.14%
15.76
2.76%
15.76
2.76%
8.19
4.45%
8.19
4.45%
31.03
16.16%
31.03
16.16%
1.36
2.29%
1.36
2.29%

Aug-03
10.97
20.70%
4.66
8.80%
21.12
3.90%
105.44
19.49%
6.86
10.64%
17.55
27.24%
150.76
32.28%
103.32
22.12%
130.05
45.31%
106.51
37.11%
35.41
13.78%
2.18
0.85%
51.19
9.93%
136.16
26.42%
40.10
19.10%
14.62
6.96%
40.88
16.69%
10.26
4.19%
25.26
29.37%
16.15
18.78%
Sep-03
4.38
10.67%
4.38
10.67%
48.38
9.48%
48.38
9.48%
1.70
2.15%
1.70
2.15%
38.54
10.80%
38.54
10.80%
64.17
26.26%
64.17
26.26%
12.92
5.38%
12.92
5.38%
92.04
13.64%
92.04
13.64%
5.05
2.84%
5.05
2.84%
4.27
2.18%
4.27
2.18%
6.39
12.05%
6.39
12.05%
Oct-03
Nov-03
2.67
10.59
5.30% 29.41%
4.49
10.59
8.91% 29.41%
142.62
37.26
34.28%
7.26%
226.41
37.26
54.43%
7.26%
20.48
43.59
37.24% 128.22%
31.81
43.59
57.83% 128.22%
41.44
7.30
10.73%
2.20%
10.25
7.30
2.66%
2.20%
10.04
50.11
4.65% 30.01%
20.86
50.11
9.66% 30.01%
31.10
33.72
11.61% 16.29%
4.43
33.72
1.65% 16.29%
125.19
113.98
27.45% 22.53%
212.37
113.98
46.57% 22.53%
29.26
46.98
19.13% 34.80%
56.60
46.98
37.00% 34.80%
35.80
73.17
20.46% 54.60%
67.42
73.17
38.52% 54.60%
12.74
1.05
16.33%
1.72%
2.95
1.05
3.78%
1.72%
Dec-03
1.18
2.52%
8.42
17.98%
8.27
1.62%
95.39
18.70%
29.07
66.07%
14.46
32.86%
90.98
36.10%
22.38
8.88%
15.37
7.54%
28.47
13.97%
42.05
20.12%
8.16
3.90%
58.18
10.83%
60.86
11.33%
12.58
7.74%
22.45
13.81%
6.58
3.43%
33.14
17.26%
1.34
2.10%
11.73
18.32%
Jan-04
10.45
29.87%
1.36
3.89%
111.85
27.68%
8.68
2.15%
0.49
0.76%
13.21
20.61%
105.74
46.58%
39.19
17.27%
91.07
77.84%
49.46
42.27%
30.79
14.45%
17.97
8.44%
47.52
8.83%
69.59
12.93%
25.64
18.44%
7.29
5.24%
28.58
18.80%
7.54
4.96%
28.95
82.72%
16.16
46.17%
Feb-04
Mar-04
12.03
3.44
35.39%
8.60%
18.94
5.25
55.70% 13.12%
13.93
159.23
2.64% 49.15%
63.03
62.59
11.96% 19.32%
4.08
29.60
6.56% 102.07%
4.64
17.88
7.46% 61.66%
47.26
35.00
13.46% 14.71%
1.70
19.60
0.48%
8.23%
73.92
80.15
55.17% 76.33%
105.11
43.12
78.44% 41.06%
38.76
29.41
19.48% 14.42%
74.43
17.27
37.40%
8.47%
91.60
248.66
18.59% 74.45%
179.25
132.12
36.38% 39.56%
9.22
42.15
5.36% 37.30%
15.19
11.12
8.83%
9.84%
4.64
26.95
2.64% 18.85%
31.69
7.04
18.04%
4.92%
20.38
1.90
24.26%
3.30%
10.84
13.07
12.90% 22.64%
Apr-04
5.07
11.01%
5.07
11.01%
38.76
8.59%
38.76
8.59%
22.39
27.64%
22.39
27.64%
51.27
15.49%
51.27
15.49%
20.98
14.08%
20.98
14.08%
24.88
12.38%
24.88
12.38%
121.73
27.24%
121.73
27.24%
16.30
11.56%
16.30
11.56%
9.54
5.39%
9.54
5.39%
15.90
34.58%
15.90
34.58%
May-04
5.63
12.25%
0.42
0.91%
33.06
6.95%
33.38
7.01%
9.73
16.27%
2.22
3.71%
70.84
21.60%
32.26
9.84%
26.59
21.62%
49.03
39.86%
20.39
8.46%
12.70
5.27%
187.66
57.39%
264.86
81.00%
56.02
28.01%
34.42
17.21%
85.87
35.34%
62.30
25.64%
14.62
19.49%
5.56
7.41%
Jun-04
0.44
1.07%
0.44
1.07%
87.13
24.96%
87.13
24.96%
9.34
19.87%
9.34
19.87%
51.10
16.27%
51.10
16.27%
51.18
26.24%
51.18
26.24%
31.29
17.00%
31.29
17.00%
44.21
9.76%
44.21
9.76%
16.02
10.27%
16.02
10.27%
65.58
29.41%
65.58
29.41%
10.94
16.32%
10.94
16.32%
Jul-04
5.39
14.58%
5.39
14.58%
33.47
8.29%
33.47
8.29%
5.22
8.48%
5.22
8.48%
5.08
1.93%
5.08
1.93%
4.56
3.56%
4.56
3.56%
3.15
1.44%
3.15
1.44%
127.93
22.09%
127.93
22.09%
21.14
16.14%
21.14
16.14%
9.21
5.55%
9.21
5.55%
2.22
3.57%
2.22
3.57%
Aug-04
12.94
44.61%
19.23
66.30%
18.09
4.26%
42.85
10.10%
22.93
30.17%
14.97
19.70%
35.23
11.55%
5.24
1.72%
41.07
40.66%
62.38
61.76%
36.41
20.80%
68.12
38.92%
99.44
28.82%
166.10
48.15%
38.39
33.97%
61.10
54.07%
12.59
7.28%
40.43
23.37%
8.28
15.61%
17.47
32.96%
Sep-04
8.49
17.33%
8.49
17.33%
162.52
70.05%
162.52
70.05%
6.15
10.20%
6.15
10.20%
71.76
38.37%
71.76
38.37%
7.32
5.81%
7.32
5.81%
21.09
9.05%
21.09
9.05%
55.06
13.20%
55.06
13.20%
2.77
1.88%
2.77
1.88%
8.11
4.31%
8.11
4.31%
16.80
21.54%
16.80
21.54%
Oct-04
2.22
6.34%
2.22
6.34%
37.59
10.65%
37.59
10.65%
2.87
5.12%
2.87
5.12%
65.95
33.82%
65.95
33.82%
52.19
77.90%
52.19
77.90%
31.25
18.38%
31.25
18.38%
12.47
2.78%
12.47
2.78%
0.56
0.42%
0.56
0.42%
14.30
8.80%
14.30
8.80%
27.77
89.57%
27.77
89.57%
Nov-04
12.38
23.80%
6.43
12.37%
85.91
20.26%
35.19
8.30%
17.08
22.48%
8.25
10.85%
3.90
1.70%
38.84
16.96%
26.03
29.58%
43.13
49.01%
0.72
0.35%
30.37
14.60%
12.91
2.96%
50.55
11.59%
8.84
7.07%
28.92
23.13%
56.11
45.99%
82.83
67.89%
6.94
12.34%
16.43
29.19%
Dec-04
7.04
15.61%
14.66
32.48%
4.44
1.38%
60.65
18.89%
14.87
34.59%
3.30
7.67%
11.37
5.10%
53.70
24.08%
28.80
43.63%
9.84
14.90%
10.15
4.92%
49.40
23.93%
28.11
7.15%
56.11
14.28%
63.80
95.23%
37.64
56.18%
39.40
29.55%
4.85
3.64%
8.84
19.22%
2.13
4.63%
Jan-05
10.23
32.99%
1.98
6.39%
55.32
19.83%
11.54
4.14%
22.20
55.50%
9.76
24.40%
24.11
13.47%
16.51
9.22%
24.69
22.65%
41.55
38.12%
6.76
3.56%
32.59
17.15%
143.96
52.73%
60.57
22.19%
51.00
68.01%
25.80
34.40%
14.23
8.27%
45.79
26.62%
15.24
39.07%
4.39
11.25%
Feb-05
0.14
0.32%
6.46
15.37%
110.56
25.89%
63.09
14.78%
4.19
6.81%
4.41
7.17%
36.74
15.84%
7.45
3.21%
46.72
39.93%
36.18
30.92%
1.67
0.86%
31.22
15.98%
81.16
16.77%
20.73
4.28%
0.06
0.06%
16.12
15.07%
23.01
18.41%
45.21
36.17%
0.88
1.68%
6.79
13.06%
Mar-05
16.30
70.87%
8.44
36.69%
81.69
21.90%
139.95
37.52%
10.29
16.41%
20.77
33.13%
36.10
25.42%
0.48
0.34%
1.15
1.67%
12.88
18.67%
40.91
17.48%
79.53
33.99%
76.15
26.82%
4.12
1.45%
4.19
4.71%
14.45
16.23%
57.95
62.99%
27.96
30.39%
2.71
6.17%
6.63
15.07%
Apr-05
1.14
2.95%
1.14
2.95%
101.56
24.71%
101.56
24.71%
10.14
15.86%
10.14
15.86%
1.16
0.66%
1.16
0.66%
40.10
35.48%
40.10
35.48%
62.71
24.69%
62.71
24.69%
113.12
42.53%
113.12
42.53%
8.95
9.04%
8.95
9.04%
59.73
74.66%
59.73
74.66%
0.59
1.26%
0.59
1.26%
May-05
1.13
3.34%
6.40
18.84%
51.74
14.22%
4.91
1.35%
17.60
24.11%
9.29
12.73%
125.11
44.52%
101.73
36.20%
80.49
55.90%
70.97
49.28%
42.01
17.36%
12.01
4.96%
39.39
12.91%
91.05
29.85%
25.81
23.67%
13.33
12.23%
46.33
27.41%
27.93
16.52%
13.80
23.80%
7.17
12.37%
Jun-05
10.28
41.12%
10.28
41.12%
33.60
11.51%
33.60
11.51%
8.24
12.60%
8.24
12.60%
9.89
7.22%
9.89
7.22%
16.54
32.43%
16.54
32.43%
18.16
7.86%
18.16
7.86%
51.74
14.28%
51.74
14.28%
37.57
31.84%
37.57
31.84%
11.70
10.00%
11.70
10.00%
20.79
32.49%
20.79
32.49%
Averages
217
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
7.72
7.05
Holdout
MAPE
19.47%
73.63
63.68
17.46%
15.34
14.36
28.66%
103.06
48.19
17.93%
41.73
45.56
33.99%
33.57
25.94
11.97%
56.20
84.97
21.94%
30.54
23.78
20.46%
28.23
31.90
21.97%
13.65
11.07
21.29%
40.37
35.65
21.51%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
8.00
7.08
19.12%
89.22
65.98
17.21%
17.53
12.82
24.38%
85.55
33.11
12.44%
50.22
45.70
34.09%
38.12
29.02
13.96%
59.35
93.85
23.20%
34.09
21.78
18.06%
30.29
32.54
22.05%
11.32
10.05
19.33%
42.37
35.19
20.39%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
12.30
22.36%
12.30
22.36%
10.01
1.90%
10.01
1.90%
21.82
23.98%
21.82
23.98%
15.98
4.23%
15.98
4.23%
89.11
33.50%
89.11
33.50%
24.57
10.37%
24.57
10.37%
53.55
9.36%
53.55
9.36%
15.71
8.54%
15.71
8.54%
2.50
1.30%
2.50
1.30%
7.68
12.96%
7.68
12.96%
Alpha, Beta Fitted

Aug-03
7.60
14.34%
0.79
1.49%
30.32
5.60%
46.28
8.55%
14.29
22.18%
26.10
40.50%
137.86
29.52%
88.49
18.95%
107.30
37.39%
80.34
27.99%
40.17
15.63%
7.65
2.98%
13.65
2.65%
92.99
18.05%
49.82
23.72%
25.79
12.28%
77.48
31.63%
52.35
21.37%
20.07
23.34%
10.18
11.84%
Sep-03
9.53
23.24%
9.53
23.24%
10.09
1.98%
10.09
1.98%
6.31
7.99%
6.31
7.99%
2.10
0.59%
2.10
0.59%
18.55
7.59%
18.55
7.59%
12.26
5.11%
12.26
5.11%
122.91
18.21%
122.91
18.21%
4.99
2.80%
4.99
2.80%
15.45
7.88%
15.45
7.88%
9.28
17.51%
9.28
17.51%
Oct-03
Nov-03
1.46
10.07
2.91% 27.97%
9.24
10.07
18.34% 27.97%
115.80
7.74
27.84%
1.51%
195.58
7.74
47.01%
1.51%
19.20
42.79
34.91% 125.85%
30.33
42.79
55.15% 125.85%
28.51
51.61
7.39% 15.54%
90.69
51.61
23.49% 15.54%
42.59
84.13
19.72% 50.38%
81.38
84.13
37.67% 50.38%
24.44
34.87
9.12% 16.85%
12.09
34.87
4.51% 16.85%
76.62
102.86
16.80% 20.33%
156.51
102.86
34.32% 20.33%
39.82
49.97
26.02% 37.02%
68.74
49.97
44.93% 37.02%
39.96
70.88
22.84% 52.89%
72.21
70.88
41.26% 52.89%
3.13
2.38
4.01%
3.91%
8.10
2.38
10.38%
3.91%
Dec-03
1.55
3.31%
8.13
17.35%
44.81
8.79%
137.85
27.03%
21.18
48.13%
8.14
18.50%
132.65
52.64%
55.72
22.11%
28.67
14.06%
17.83
8.75%
47.04
22.50%
4.17
2.00%
9.51
1.77%
115.01
21.42%
5.37
3.30%
28.22
17.36%
3.06
1.60%
40.85
21.28%
6.99
10.92%
7.21
11.26%
Jan-04
6.77
19.34%
1.58
4.53%
87.05
21.55%
11.16
2.76%
15.60
24.33%
25.30
39.46%
129.29
56.95%
58.03
25.56%
80.59
68.88%
41.07
35.11%
17.06
8.01%
28.95
13.59%
21.88
4.07%
125.11
23.25%
11.41
8.21%
18.67
13.43%
7.57
4.98%
24.34
16.01%
30.45
86.99%
17.36
49.59%
Feb-04
10.47
30.78%
17.14
50.40%
25.46
4.83%
49.77
9.44%
16.09
25.88%
9.18
14.76%
50.73
14.45%
5.69
1.62%
66.95
49.96%
97.09
72.46%
19.99
10.04%
52.83
26.55%
34.70
7.04%
113.81
23.10%
15.05
8.75%
8.49
4.94%
1.15
0.65%
27.67
15.75%
19.41
23.10%
9.72
11.57%
Mar-04
0.60
1.49%
8.48
21.19%
125.80
38.83%
35.84
11.06%
26.68
92.01%
15.55
53.61%
22.71
9.54%
29.43
12.37%
51.12
48.69%
19.90
18.95%
11.94
5.85%
31.25
15.32%
199.24
59.65%
92.59
27.72%
34.39
30.44%
4.91
4.35%
20.53
14.36%
12.18
8.51%
9.02
15.63%
18.76
32.51%
Apr-04
9.50
20.65%
9.50
20.65%
40.33
8.94%
40.33
8.94%
21.87
27.00%
21.87
27.00%
22.53
6.81%
22.53
6.81%
4.76
3.19%
4.76
3.19%
6.04
3.00%
6.04
3.00%
64.82
14.50%
64.82
14.50%
19.56
13.87%
19.56
13.87%
7.04
3.98%
7.04
3.98%
21.45
46.63%
21.45
46.63%
May-04
7.63
16.60%
1.88
4.08%
73.72
15.49%
13.38
2.81%
16.78
28.06%
10.32
17.26%
57.57
17.55%
17.01
5.19%
0.19
0.15%
18.66
15.17%
35.46
14.71%
4.63
1.92%
89.87
27.48%
152.41
46.61%
64.81
32.41%
44.54
22.27%
87.49
36.00%
64.17
26.41%
12.82
17.10%
3.50
4.66%
Jun-04
1.42
3.47%
1.42
3.47%
79.49
22.78%
79.49
22.78%
16.28
34.63%
16.28
34.63%
11.67
3.72%
11.67
3.72%
58.15
29.82%
58.15
29.82%
19.24
10.46%
19.24
10.46%
20.16
4.45%
20.16
4.45%
17.72
11.36%
17.72
11.36%
56.08
25.15%
56.08
25.15%
13.55
20.23%
13.55
20.23%
Jul-04
7.32
19.78%
7.32
19.78%
50.11
12.40%
50.11
12.40%
0.13
0.22%
0.13
0.22%
52.65
20.02%
52.65
20.02%
1.35
1.05%
1.35
1.05%
5.54
2.54%
5.54
2.54%
202.77
35.02%
202.77
35.02%
40.26
30.73%
40.26
30.73%
41.52
25.01%
41.52
25.01%
2.69
4.33%
2.69
4.33%
Aug-04
13.54
46.70%
19.92
68.70%
26.17
6.17%
33.56
7.91%
22.29
29.33%
14.23
18.72%
9.40
3.08%
56.56
18.54%
63.32
62.69%
87.96
87.09%
27.57
15.76%
57.96
33.12%
72.09
20.90%
134.65
39.03%
50.17
44.40%
74.64
66.06%
42.82
24.75%
75.20
43.47%
12.92
24.38%
22.81
43.04%
Sep-04
9.43
19.24%
9.43
19.24%
169.48
73.05%
169.48
73.05%
2.38
3.95%
2.38
3.95%
99.56
53.24%
99.56
53.24%
18.87
14.97%
18.87
14.97%
22.06
9.47%
22.06
9.47%
86.53
20.75%
86.53
20.75%
1.13
0.77%
1.13
0.77%
1.31
0.70%
1.31
0.70%
14.16
18.16%
14.16
18.16%
Oct-04
1.09
3.11%
1.09
3.11%
60.90
17.25%
60.90
17.25%
11.56
20.63%
11.56
20.63%
100.98
51.79%
100.98
51.79%
54.34
81.11%
54.34
81.11%
21.87
12.86%
21.87
12.86%
29.01
6.48%
29.01
6.48%
5.99
4.46%
5.99
4.46%
18.09
11.14%
18.09
11.14%
26.96
86.98%
26.96
86.98%
Nov-04
10.05
19.33%
3.76
7.23%
107.10
25.26%
59.56
14.05%
12.33
16.22%
2.78
3.65%
8.34
3.64%
43.94
19.19%
35.70
40.57%
54.25
61.65%
5.95
2.86%
38.04
18.29%
18.19
4.17%
44.48
10.20%
13.39
10.71%
34.15
27.32%
62.47
51.21%
90.15
73.89%
12.31
21.88%
22.60
40.16%
Dec-04
6.91
15.31%
14.55
32.24%
15.19
4.73%
52.05
16.21%
16.57
38.55%
4.66
10.84%
8.82
3.95%
51.65
23.16%
27.27
41.32%
8.62
13.06%
15.78
7.65%
53.90
26.12%
40.82
10.39%
45.94
11.69%
69.24
103.35%
42.00
62.68%
39.33
29.49%
4.79
3.59%
2.42
5.27%
7.26
15.78%
Jan-05
14.57
47.00%
5.46
17.60%
104.15
37.33%
27.52
9.86%
28.35
70.86%
14.68
36.69%
42.52
23.76%
1.78
1.00%
18.73
17.19%
36.79
33.75%
10.00
5.26%
30.00
15.79%
161.94
59.32%
74.95
27.45%
55.23
73.64%
29.18
38.91%
26.44
15.37%
55.55
32.30%
13.50
34.62%
3.00
7.69%
Feb-05
3.31
7.87%
10.11
24.06%
76.92
18.01%
24.41
5.72%
6.74
10.95%
1.48
2.41%
10.25
4.42%
23.01
9.92%
39.90
34.10%
28.33
24.21%
8.22
4.21%
38.74
19.84%
71.52
14.78%
9.64
1.99%
10.58
9.89%
3.88
3.63%
13.95
11.16%
34.79
27.83%
3.08
5.92%
4.26
8.19%
Mar-05
14.68
63.81%
7.14
31.04%
60.83
16.31%
123.27
33.05%
15.83
25.24%
25.20
40.19%
56.34
39.68%
16.68
11.74%
24.93
36.12%
6.14
8.90%
37.58
16.06%
76.86
32.85%
53.86
18.96%
13.71
4.83%
4.12
4.63%
21.09
23.70%
64.50
70.11%
33.20
36.09%
0.49
1.12%
9.19
20.90%
Apr-05
1.42
3.67%
1.42
3.67%
37.48
9.12%
37.48
9.12%
9.27
14.50%
9.27
14.50%
38.72
21.88%
38.72
21.88%
6.93
6.13%
6.93
6.13%
58.07
22.86%
58.07
22.86%
149.71
56.28%
149.71
56.28%
2.41
2.44%
2.41
2.44%
59.59
74.49%
59.59
74.49%
0.92
1.96%
0.92
1.96%
May-05
3.10
9.13%
1.53
4.50%
9.36
2.57%
65.36
17.96%
14.04
19.24%
5.20
7.12%
105.25
37.45%
78.88
28.07%
57.90
40.21%
44.99
31.24%
25.62
10.59%
6.84
2.83%
40.24
13.19%
92.03
30.17%
16.56
15.19%
2.69
2.47%
54.95
32.51%
37.84
22.39%
12.29
21.19%
5.43
9.36%
Jun-05
9.97
39.86%
9.97
39.86%
101.59
34.79%
101.59
34.79%
3.75
5.73%
3.75
5.73%
38.77
28.30%
38.77
28.30%
49.27
96.61%
49.27
96.61%
5.63
2.44%
5.63
2.44%
59.79
16.50%
59.79
16.50%
22.15
18.77%
22.15
18.77%
21.31
18.21%
21.31
18.21%
17.72
27.69%
17.72
27.69%
Averages
218
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
8.11
7.26
Holdout
MAPE
20.05%
62.29
61.25
17.38%
16.02
15.92
31.26%
107.02
51.45
21.26%
37.26
42.94
34.81%
30.70
22.37
10.18%
48.44
74.84
19.29%
29.25
25.83
21.89%
23.00
34.81
23.64%
15.30
11.49
22.33%
37.74
34.82
22.21%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
7.46
7.57
20.25%
83.99
60.12
16.55%
18.21
13.72
25.97%
91.67
43.84
17.79%
45.57
42.03
33.35%
33.66
27.25
12.99%
52.63
89.83
21.74%
29.77
24.45
19.79%
25.87
38.29
25.45%
13.00
11.09
21.55%
40.18
35.82
21.54%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
15.72
28.58%
15.72
28.58%
9.67
1.83%
9.67
1.83%
14.57
16.01%
14.57
16.01%
119.95
31.73%
119.95
31.73%
179.42
67.45%
179.42
67.45%
41.91
17.68%
41.91
17.68%
27.45
4.80%
27.45
4.80%
12.35
6.71%
12.35
6.71%
15.81
8.23%
15.81
8.23%
5.47
9.23%
5.47
9.23%

Aug-03
10.95
20.67%
4.65
8.77%
15.63
2.89%
99.12
18.32%
6.74
10.46%
17.42
27.03%
172.16
36.86%
127.93
27.39%
151.64
52.84%
131.34
45.76%
48.20
18.76%
16.88
6.57%
63.51
12.33%
150.33
29.18%
42.73
20.35%
17.64
8.40%
46.99
19.18%
17.29
7.06%
21.16
24.60%
11.43
13.29%
Sep-03
4.30
10.49%
4.30
10.49%
16.68
3.27%
16.68
3.27%
2.96
3.75%
2.96
3.75%
88.80
24.87%
88.80
24.87%
96.09
39.33%
96.09
39.33%
24.38
10.16%
24.38
10.16%
90.08
13.35%
90.08
13.35%
20.80
11.69%
20.80
11.69%
31.90
16.28%
31.90
16.28%
11.00
20.76%
11.00
20.76%
Oct-03
Nov-03
1.14
18.54
2.26% 51.50%
8.87
18.54
17.60% 51.50%
113.81
25.86
27.36%
5.04%
193.29
25.86
46.46%
5.04%
36.31
48.40
66.01% 142.34%
50.00
48.40
90.91% 142.34%
90.42
34.24
23.43% 10.31%
46.09
34.24
11.94% 10.31%
11.18
88.22
5.18% 52.82%
19.54
88.22
9.05% 52.82%
38.50
42.88
14.36% 20.71%
4.07
42.88
1.52% 20.71%
150.10
80.52
32.92% 15.91%
241.01
80.52
52.85% 15.91%
14.85
54.91
9.70% 40.67%
40.02
54.91
26.16% 40.67%
6.53
67.89
3.73% 50.66%
18.74
67.89
10.71% 50.66%
17.82
11.93
22.84% 19.64%
8.79
11.93
11.27% 19.64%
Dec-03
Jan-04
2.85
16.49
6.09% 47.11%
7.08
6.19
15.13% 17.69%
17.52
62.79
3.44% 15.54%
87.98
30.57
17.25%
7.57%
40.13
7.48
91.21% 11.67%
23.31
6.84
52.97% 10.66%
101.89
135.35
40.43% 59.63%
31.11
62.88
12.35% 27.70%
61.03
137.34
29.94% 117.38%
8.06
86.47
3.96% 73.91%
44.69
58.26
21.38% 27.35%
6.05
4.00
2.89%
1.88%
123.59
47.89
23.01%
8.90%
8.53
69.29
1.59% 12.88%
24.27
31.61
14.92% 22.74%
13.11
2.51
8.06%
1.81%
5.56
30.97
2.90% 20.37%
33.95
5.62
17.68%
3.70%
1.27
34.97
1.99% 99.92%
13.82
20.98
21.59% 59.94%
Feb-04
Mar-04
10.54
5.81
30.99% 14.53%
17.22
3.35
50.64%
8.37%
46.79
164.43
8.88% 50.75%
25.25
66.75
4.79% 20.60%
11.01
13.99
17.71% 48.23%
3.34
5.39
5.37% 18.58%
12.53
40.13
3.57% 16.86%
38.24
15.49
10.90%
6.51%
84.63
109.33
63.16% 104.13%
117.42
66.47
87.63% 63.30%
49.21
28.93
24.73% 14.18%
86.44
17.66
43.44%
8.66%
68.23
226.12
13.85% 67.70%
152.38
114.10
30.93% 34.16%
22.58
37.74
13.13% 33.40%
0.17
7.59
0.10%
6.72%
25.33
18.30
14.42% 12.80%
2.78
13.96
1.58%
9.76%
18.73
6.17
22.30% 10.70%
8.94
6.61
10.65% 11.44%
Apr-04
5.95
12.94%
5.95
12.94%
15.80
3.50%
15.80
3.50%
31.94
39.43%
31.94
39.43%
106.53
32.18%
106.53
32.18%
13.54
9.09%
13.54
9.09%
23.43
11.66%
23.43
11.66%
112.33
25.14%
112.33
25.14%
2.16
1.53%
2.16
1.53%
29.86
16.87%
29.86
16.87%
0.78
1.70%
0.78
1.70%
May-04
10.39
22.60%
5.05
10.99%
7.24
1.52%
63.07
13.25%
7.34
12.28%
0.53
0.88%
68.34
20.83%
29.39
8.96%
14.09
11.46%
34.65
28.17%
30.30
12.57%
1.30
0.54%
205.46
62.83%
285.33
87.26%
50.29
25.15%
27.84
13.92%
91.47
37.64%
68.74
28.29%
12.20
16.27%
2.78
3.71%
Jun-04
4.96
12.10%
4.96
12.10%
29.89
8.56%
29.89
8.56%
10.55
22.44%
10.55
22.44%
91.44
29.12%
91.44
29.12%
90.56
46.44%
90.56
46.44%
20.24
11.00%
20.24
11.00%
28.15
6.21%
28.15
6.21%
31.49
20.18%
31.49
20.18%
85.99
38.56%
85.99
38.56%
7.82
11.67%
7.82
11.67%
Jul-04
2.84
7.68%
2.84
7.68%
13.71
3.39%
13.71
3.39%
6.53
10.60%
6.53
10.60%
11.48
4.37%
11.48
4.37%
19.79
15.46%
19.79
15.46%
19.58
8.98%
19.58
8.98%
163.42
28.23%
163.42
28.23%
7.39
5.64%
7.39
5.64%
19.01
11.45%
19.01
11.45%
11.92
19.18%
11.92
19.18%
Aug-04
13.51
46.60%
19.89
68.59%
10.37
2.44%
51.73
12.19%
19.92
26.21%
11.50
15.14%
33.45
10.97%
7.28
2.39%
3.31
3.28%
11.34
11.23%
42.19
24.11%
74.77
42.73%
1.26
0.36%
50.30
14.58%
43.77
38.73%
67.28
59.54%
18.54
10.72%
47.27
27.32%
7.60
14.33%
16.69
31.48%
Sep-04
Oct-04
7.43
3.71
15.16% 10.59%
7.43
3.71
15.16% 10.59%
128.57
3.69
55.42%
1.05%
128.57
3.69
55.42%
1.05%
10.53
2.28
17.47%
4.07%
10.53
2.28
17.47%
4.07%
91.78
61.26
49.08% 31.42%
91.78
61.26
49.08% 31.42%
6.29
52.42
4.99% 78.24%
6.29
52.42
4.99% 78.24%
34.76
34.58
14.92% 20.34%
34.76
34.58
14.92% 20.34%
49.34
9.01
11.83%
2.01%
49.34
9.01
11.83%
2.01%
7.93
5.65
5.39%
4.21%
7.93
5.65
5.39%
4.21%
22.98
29.41
12.23% 18.10%
22.98
29.41
12.23% 18.10%
14.68
31.50
18.83% 101.61%
14.68
31.50
18.83% 101.61%
Nov-04
19.68
37.84%
14.83
28.51%
56.47
13.32%
1.34
0.32%
11.33
14.91%
1.63
2.14%
36.64
16.00%
76.49
33.40%
8.41
9.56%
22.87
25.99%
22.90
11.01%
4.87
2.34%
48.08
11.03%
10.11
2.32%
5.04
4.03%
12.96
10.37%
60.57
49.65%
87.96
72.09%
0.56
1.00%
9.09
16.15%
Dec-04
5.83
12.92%
13.69
30.33%
52.00
16.20%
105.80
32.96%
20.32
47.26%
7.66
17.81%
15.86
7.11%
57.29
25.69%
29.87
45.25%
10.69
16.20%
1.68
0.82%
42.62
20.65%
10.65
2.71%
87.12
22.17%
58.97
88.01%
33.77
50.41%
51.23
38.41%
14.31
10.73%
21.05
45.75%
7.64
16.60%
Jan-05
5.32
17.17%
1.94
6.26%
6.78
2.43%
61.23
21.95%
19.95
49.87%
7.96
19.89%
5.63
3.15%
40.31
22.52%
45.32
41.58%
58.05
53.26%
6.89
3.63%
43.52
22.90%
124.49
45.60%
44.99
16.48%
48.50
64.67%
23.80
31.74%
0.23
0.14%
34.59
20.11%
8.70
22.32%
0.84
2.15%
Feb-05
1.85
4.41%
8.43
20.07%
109.73
25.70%
62.14
14.55%
7.28
11.82%
17.60
28.60%
60.34
26.01%
34.59
14.91%
62.02
53.01%
53.77
45.96%
5.27
2.70%
23.23
11.90%
81.48
16.83%
21.10
4.36%
10.11
9.45%
27.68
25.86%
15.52
12.42%
36.60
29.28%
3.20
6.15%
4.13
7.93%
Mar-05
22.20
96.51%
13.16
57.21%
80.31
21.53%
138.85
37.22%
6.39
10.19%
17.65
28.15%
27.50
19.37%
6.40
4.51%
30.59
44.34%
38.27
55.47%
39.71
16.97%
78.57
33.58%
99.00
34.86%
22.40
7.89%
8.15
9.16%
24.32
27.32%
34.15
37.12%
8.92
9.70%
0.06
0.13%
8.75
19.89%
Apr-05
0.45
1.16%
0.45
1.16%
156.43
38.06%
156.43
38.06%
17.86
27.92%
17.86
27.92%
31.38
17.73%
31.38
17.73%
60.01
53.11%
60.01
53.11%
65.68
25.86%
65.68
25.86%
37.70
14.17%
37.70
14.17%
37.43
37.80%
37.43
37.80%
58.88
73.59%
58.88
73.59%
9.82
20.89%
9.82
20.89%
May-05
5.49
16.14%
11.41
33.56%
49.97
13.73%
2.86
0.79%
21.61
29.61%
13.91
19.05%
119.65
42.58%
95.45
33.97%
74.96
52.06%
64.61
44.87%
54.46
22.51%
26.33
10.88%
64.89
21.27%
120.37
39.47%
41.31
37.90%
31.15
28.58%
46.98
27.80%
28.67
16.97%
17.87
30.81%
11.85
20.43%
Jun-05
4.80
19.22%
4.80
19.22%
34.37
11.77%
34.37
11.77%
9.55
14.60%
9.55
14.60%
13.15
9.60%
13.15
9.60%
3.35
6.57%
3.35
6.57%
21.99
9.52%
21.99
9.52%
57.65
15.91%
57.65
15.91%
54.90
46.53%
54.90
46.53%
24.12
20.62%
24.12
20.62%
25.99
40.61%
25.99
40.61%
Averages
219
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
8.28
8.36
Holdout
MAPE
22.72%
81.36
51.19
14.07%
18.94
16.04
31.09%
115.67
65.41
23.63%
49.53
59.73
41.94%
41.23
33.36
15.25%
61.65
82.10
20.49%
33.84
28.12
23.82%
32.03
34.93
23.08%
14.24
12.59
24.30%
45.68
39.18
24.04%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
9.30
8.52
22.63%
102.92
59.36
15.84%
20.11
14.16
26.49%
91.15
54.96
20.15%
55.95
55.55
39.09%
43.73
31.66
15.05%
62.49
84.71
20.57%
36.60
23.54
19.97%
32.50
33.55
22.15%
12.57
10.97
21.28%
46.73
37.70
22.32%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
14.28
25.96%
14.28
25.96%
47.58
9.01%
47.58
9.01%
25.10
27.58%
25.10
27.58%
10.48
2.77%
10.48
2.77%
76.29
28.68%
76.29
28.68%
10.95
4.62%
10.95
4.62%
133.52
23.34%
133.52
23.34%
6.05
3.29%
6.05
3.29%
18.11
9.43%
18.11
9.43%
1.60
2.69%
1.60
2.69%
Alpha Fitted
Aug-03
11.99
22.62%
5.84
11.02%
44.11
8.15%
131.88
24.38%
1.06
1.64%
10.88
16.89%
82.20
17.60%
24.49
5.24%
93.88
32.71%
64.92
22.62%
27.65
10.76%
6.75
2.63%
69.90
13.56%
3.09
0.60%
20.77
9.89%
7.61
3.63%
35.74
14.59%
4.35
1.77%
29.26
34.02%
20.75
24.12%
Sep-03
0.55
1.35%
0.55
1.35%
75.30
14.76%
75.30
14.76%
11.01
13.93%
11.01
13.93%
13.60
3.81%
13.60
3.81%
52.37
21.43%
52.37
21.43%
8.14
3.39%
8.14
3.39%
218.66
32.39%
218.66
32.39%
9.05
5.08%
9.05
5.08%
7.00
3.57%
7.00
3.57%
2.71
5.12%
2.71
5.12%
Oct-03
Nov-03
7.52
7.89
14.93% 21.91%
1.09
7.89
2.17% 21.91%
174.50
83.44
41.95% 16.26%
263.07
83.44
63.24% 16.26%
15.79
36.44
28.70% 107.18%
26.40
36.44
48.01% 107.18%
20.07
39.54
5.20% 11.91%
34.82
39.54
9.02% 11.91%
15.74
43.36
7.29% 25.96%
14.30
43.36
6.62% 25.96%
31.94
35.15
11.92% 16.98%
3.46
35.15
1.29% 16.98%
14.41
28.73
3.16%
5.68%
84.97
28.73
18.63%
5.68%
35.32
57.44
23.08% 42.55%
63.56
57.44
41.54% 42.55%
27.46
73.86
15.69% 55.12%
57.83
73.86
33.05% 55.12%
23.89
5.14
30.63%
8.46%
15.78
5.14
20.23%
8.46%
Dec-03
3.33
7.10%
12.03
25.68%
88.44
17.34%
31.25
6.13%
27.74
63.04%
13.39
30.43%
112.61
44.69%
39.69
15.75%
11.24
5.51%
31.78
15.59%
36.93
17.67%
12.25
5.86%
35.53
6.62%
135.83
25.29%
30.10
18.51%
8.44
5.19%
15.44
8.04%
26.04
13.56%
10.63
16.61%
21.31
33.29%
Jan-04
9.19
26.26%
0.35
1.01%
185.67
45.96%
67.73
16.77%
6.16
9.60%
7.90
12.32%
134.41
59.21%
62.13
27.37%
99.31
84.88%
56.05
47.91%
39.54
18.56%
10.97
5.15%
38.30
7.12%
138.25
25.70%
51.16
36.80%
13.13
9.44%
52.71
34.68%
11.77
7.74%
19.07
54.50%
8.26
23.60%
Feb-04
Mar-04
9.23
3.54
27.16%
8.86%
15.72
5.17
46.23% 12.91%
65.10
269.91
12.35% 83.31%
153.92
151.13
29.21% 46.65%
4.40
35.19
7.07% 121.34%
14.38
22.35
23.13% 77.07%
1.48
97.26
0.42% 40.86%
54.35
30.20
15.48% 12.69%
78.01
107.06
58.21% 101.96%
109.81
64.65
81.95% 61.57%
52.89
47.44
26.58% 23.26%
90.67
2.84
45.56%
1.39%
10.92
176.70
2.22% 52.90%
86.46
74.56
17.55% 22.32%
13.74
71.65
7.99% 63.41%
41.60
34.72
24.19% 30.73%
21.88
54.32
12.46% 37.99%
51.52
14.86
29.32% 10.39%
31.16
5.65
37.09%
9.79%
23.23
16.06
27.66% 27.83%
Apr-04
3.48
7.57%
3.48
7.57%
132.66
29.42%
132.66
29.42%
16.80
20.74%
16.80
20.74%
14.60
4.41%
14.60
4.41%
53.42
35.85%
53.42
35.85%
50.42
25.08%
50.42
25.08%
70.48
15.77%
70.48
15.77%
39.98
28.36%
39.98
28.36%
15.63
8.83%
15.63
8.83%
2.15
4.67%
2.15
4.67%
May-04
4.54
9.87%
1.68
3.65%
111.62
23.45%
199.76
41.97%
4.20
7.02%
13.80
23.07%
15.37
4.69%
31.52
9.61%
72.27
58.76%
101.56
82.57%
8.78
3.64%
46.25
19.19%
191.58
58.59%
269.37
82.38%
18.80
9.40%
8.38
4.19%
52.14
21.45%
23.51
9.67%
25.05
33.40%
17.55
23.41%
Jun-04
0.11
0.26%
0.11
0.26%
219.58
62.92%
219.58
62.92%
13.11
27.90%
13.11
27.90%
17.40
5.54%
17.40
5.54%
9.67
4.96%
9.67
4.96%
64.75
35.19%
64.75
35.19%
48.97
10.81%
48.97
10.81%
18.82
12.06%
18.82
12.06%
37.43
16.79%
37.43
16.79%
18.26
27.25%
18.26
27.25%
Jul-04
4.46
12.06%
4.46
12.06%
160.75
39.79%
160.75
39.79%
0.71
1.15%
0.71
1.15%
29.03
11.04%
29.03
11.04%
52.91
41.34%
52.91
41.34%
29.40
13.48%
29.40
13.48%
80.08
13.83%
80.08
13.83%
40.94
31.25%
40.94
31.25%
18.39
11.08%
18.39
11.08%
15.84
25.47%
15.84
25.47%
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
12.80
7.44
5.89
44.13% 15.19% 16.82%
19.07
7.44
5.89
65.75% 15.19% 16.82%
139.43
316.70
187.53
32.85% 136.51% 53.13%
224.00
316.70
187.53
52.78% 136.51% 53.13%
14.08
0.10
4.15
18.53%
0.16%
7.42%
4.79
0.10
4.15
6.31%
0.16%
7.42%
17.48
94.84
75.94
5.73% 50.71% 38.94%
25.65
94.84
75.94
8.41% 50.71% 38.94%
72.88
49.31
102.20
72.15% 39.13% 152.54%
98.96
49.31
102.20
97.98% 39.13% 152.54%
75.53
14.07
77.57
43.16%
6.04% 45.63%
113.11
14.07
77.57
64.64%
6.04% 45.63%
137.66
64.42
46.34
39.90% 15.45% 10.34%
210.06
64.42
46.34
60.89% 15.45% 10.34%
62.80
27.35
36.11
55.57% 18.59% 26.87%
89.17
27.35
36.11
78.91% 18.59% 26.87%
17.64
6.34
28.87
10.20%
3.37% 17.77%
46.24
6.34
28.87
26.73%
3.37% 17.77%
5.67
30.60
15.95
10.70% 39.23% 51.46%
1.43
30.60
15.95
2.69% 39.23% 51.46%
Nov-04
12.63
24.28%
6.72
12.93%
111.05
26.19%
191.31
45.12%
14.25
18.75%
4.99
6.56%
36.51
15.94%
76.34
33.34%
72.48
82.36%
96.55
109.71%
35.20
16.92%
71.68
34.46%
44.21
10.14%
116.25
26.66%
39.73
31.78%
64.43
51.55%
67.35
55.21%
95.76
78.49%
10.72
19.06%
3.89
6.92%
Dec-04
4.95
10.98%
12.99
28.78%
187.38
58.37%
85.71
26.70%
18.50
43.01%
6.20
14.41%
24.40
10.94%
25.08
11.25%
89.10
134.99%
58.08
87.99%
39.12
18.96%
9.98
4.83%
82.03
20.87%
12.98
3.30%
96.11
143.45%
63.49
94.76%
55.79
41.83%
17.96
13.47%
1.03
2.24%
8.38
18.21%
Jan-05
8.38
27.05%
0.51
1.64%
217.77
78.05%
118.42
42.44%
20.78
51.96%
8.63
21.57%
52.43
29.29%
6.14
3.43%
34.50
31.65%
5.80
5.32%
50.62
26.64%
2.50
1.31%
200.59
73.48%
105.87
38.78%
85.17
113.56%
53.14
70.85%
14.14
8.22%
23.09
13.42%
4.22
10.81%
4.43
11.35%
Feb-05
1.50
3.56%
4.58
10.91%
66.72
15.63%
140.78
32.97%
0.79
1.29%
10.14
16.48%
11.63
5.01%
21.43
9.24%
17.99
15.38%
38.24
32.68%
44.91
23.00%
80.95
41.44%
13.10
2.71%
57.53
11.89%
49.36
46.13%
72.82
68.05%
53.80
43.04%
80.63
64.50%
9.52
18.31%
3.15
6.05%
Mar-05
17.85
77.60%
9.68
42.08%
106.32
28.51%
10.46
2.80%
2.58
4.11%
14.60
23.29%
67.47
47.52%
25.58
18.01%
55.59
80.57%
30.68
44.46%
5.63
2.41%
42.30
18.08%
179.56
63.22%
86.85
30.58%
57.33
64.42%
28.07
31.54%
81.20
88.26%
46.56
50.60%
3.33
7.56%
11.46
26.05%
Apr-05
1.00
2.60%
1.00
2.60%
50.09
12.19%
50.09
12.19%
6.23
9.75%
6.23
9.75%
17.50
9.89%
17.50
9.89%
6.67
5.90%
6.67
5.90%
16.79
6.61%
16.79
6.61%
177.30
66.65%
177.30
66.65%
38.82
39.22%
38.82
39.22%
92.25
115.31%
92.25
115.31%
8.77
18.66%
8.77
18.66%
May-05
5.61
16.49%
11.55
33.96%
96.43
26.49%
165.49
45.46%
15.13
20.72%
6.44
8.83%
94.49
33.63%
66.51
23.67%
28.01
19.45%
10.62
7.37%
6.51
2.69%
28.81
11.91%
142.79
46.82%
209.96
68.84%
24.42
22.40%
44.43
40.76%
2.87
1.70%
22.05
13.05%
20.58
35.49%
14.97
25.81%
Jun-05
12.52
50.09%
12.52
50.09%
161.75
55.39%
161.75
55.39%
7.23
11.05%
7.23
11.05%
32.15
23.47%
32.15
23.47%
56.23
110.25%
56.23
110.25%
7.15
3.10%
7.15
3.10%
67.27
18.56%
67.27
18.56%
9.29
7.88%
9.29
7.88%
39.74
33.96%
39.74
33.96%
28.21
44.08%
28.21
44.08%
Averages
220
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
7.00
7.11
Holdout
MAPE
19.78%
74.40
137.49
38.67%
14.01
12.56
25.99%
97.37
46.37
20.13%
41.12
56.27
52.16%
33.37
34.05
16.93%
82.48
94.71
25.59%
30.72
39.18
35.90%
31.60
37.09
27.86%
13.09
13.71
22.80%
42.52
47.85
28.58%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
7.47
6.86
18.86%
90.30
140.43
37.75%
16.52
11.91
23.13%
84.88
36.21
15.21%
47.13
53.52
48.77%
38.29
34.87
17.41%
84.61
105.32
26.93%
34.99
36.53
32.10%
35.73
35.82
26.71%
12.68
12.49
21.01%
45.26
47.40
26.79%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
19.85
36.09%
19.85
36.09%
65.93
12.49%
65.93
12.49%
22.73
24.98%
22.73
24.98%
60.23
15.93%
60.23
15.93%
150.93
56.74%
150.93
56.74%
43.55
18.38%
43.55
18.38%
4.06
0.71%
4.06
0.71%
27.32
14.85%
27.32
14.85%
0.29
0.15%
0.29
0.15%
2.50
4.22%
2.50
4.22%
Optimised Alpha
Aug-03
13.03
24.59%
7.04
13.28%
4.99
0.92%
86.89
16.06%
0.76
1.18%
10.54
16.36%
100.79
21.58%
45.86
9.82%
16.08
5.60%
24.56
8.56%
24.43
9.51%
10.45
4.07%
22.72
4.41%
103.42
20.07%
46.09
21.95%
21.51
10.24%
52.87
21.58%
24.06
9.82%
21.42
24.91%
11.73
13.64%
Sep-03
5.70
13.91%
5.70
13.91%
10.28
2.01%
10.28
2.01%
8.35
10.57%
8.35
10.57%
21.04
5.89%
21.04
5.89%
36.35
14.88%
36.35
14.88%
16.80
7.00%
16.80
7.00%
132.38
19.61%
132.38
19.61%
16.97
9.54%
16.97
9.54%
89.87
45.85%
89.87
45.85%
11.55
21.79%
11.55
21.79%
Oct-03
10.44
20.72%
19.57
38.83%
105.72
25.41%
183.98
44.23%
31.25
56.82%
44.19
80.34%
35.58
9.22%
16.99
4.40%
31.51
14.59%
68.63
31.77%
24.86
9.27%
11.62
4.33%
111.56
24.47%
196.70
43.13%
33.22
21.72%
61.16
39.97%
5.69
3.25%
32.79
18.74%
21.25
27.25%
12.74
16.34%
Nov-03
18.65
51.82%
18.65
51.82%
20.65
4.03%
20.65
4.03%
42.10
123.81%
42.10
123.81%
178.04
53.63%
178.04
53.63%
146.83
87.92%
146.83
87.92%
71.63
34.61%
71.63
34.61%
31.29
6.18%
31.29
6.18%
100.89
74.73%
100.89
74.73%
150.87
112.59%
150.87
112.59%
33.84
55.71%
33.84
55.71%
Dec-03
7.46
15.92%
15.33
32.74%
11.98
2.35%
92.41
18.12%
32.71
74.35%
17.37
39.48%
143.67
57.01%
64.53
25.61%
70.08
34.38%
15.30
7.50%
39.49
18.89%
10.21
4.89%
186.52
34.73%
41.82
7.79%
24.66
15.17%
12.79
7.87%
31.74
16.53%
13.01
6.78%
6.37
9.95%
17.89
27.96%
Jan-04
9.97
28.48%
0.97
2.78%
64.26
15.91%
132.21
32.72%
17.06
26.61%
26.47
41.29%
153.68
67.70%
77.54
34.16%
101.95
87.14%
58.16
49.71%
39.43
18.51%
11.06
5.19%
74.06
13.77%
166.86
31.01%
3.34
2.41%
30.48
21.93%
20.37
13.40%
14.10
9.28%
29.85
85.30%
16.88
48.24%
Feb-04
4.10
12.06%
9.81
28.86%
28.58
5.42%
46.18
8.76%
50.98
82.00%
49.30
79.30%
53.39
15.21%
8.74
2.49%
9.34
6.97%
9.35
6.98%
3.07
1.54%
33.38
16.77%
3.84
0.78%
69.49
14.10%
57.47
33.41%
40.29
23.42%
79.28
45.13%
64.82
36.90%
19.27
22.94%
9.56
11.38%
Mar-04
2.06
5.15%
6.35
15.88%
202.78
62.59%
97.42
30.07%
8.88
30.61%
1.30
4.49%
69.89
29.37%
103.51
43.49%
76.08
72.46%
39.87
37.97%
1.34
0.66%
39.73
19.47%
167.27
50.08%
67.02
20.07%
42.09
37.25%
11.07
9.80%
26.40
18.46%
7.48
5.23%
6.46
11.18%
6.38
11.05%
Apr-04
8.20
17.83%
8.20
17.83%
24.69
5.48%
24.69
5.48%
8.65
10.68%
8.65
10.68%
92.74
28.02%
92.74
28.02%
15.69
10.53%
15.69
10.53%
8.47
4.22%
8.47
4.22%
69.36
15.52%
69.36
15.52%
12.42
8.81%
12.42
8.81%
12.55
7.09%
12.55
7.09%
34.60
75.21%
34.60
75.21%
May-04
14.60
31.75%
9.89
21.52%
6.13
1.29%
78.45
16.48%
4.00
6.70%
13.58
22.70%
40.10
12.23%
95.32
29.06%
1.75
1.42%
20.46
16.64%
46.89
19.46%
17.78
7.38%
192.98
59.02%
270.98
82.87%
29.58
14.79%
4.02
2.01%
72.06
29.65%
46.41
19.10%
14.78
19.71%
28.25
37.66%
Jun-04
4.68
11.41%
4.68
11.41%
20.79
5.96%
20.79
5.96%
19.38
41.23%
19.38
41.23%
33.39
10.63%
33.39
10.63%
115.78
59.37%
115.78
59.37%
14.11
7.67%
14.11
7.67%
251.19
55.45%
251.19
55.45%
47.91
30.71%
47.91
30.71%
70.32
31.53%
70.32
31.53%
8.31
12.41%
8.31
12.41%
Jul-04
Aug-04
11.11
17.63
30.03% 60.78%
11.11
24.62
30.03% 84.89%
15.89
41.36
3.93%
9.75%
15.89
111.22
3.93% 26.21%
11.96
8.90
19.43% 11.71%
11.96
1.17
19.43%
1.54%
29.84
8.81
11.34%
2.89%
29.84
55.88
11.34% 18.32%
5.64
26.70
4.41% 26.43%
5.64
45.85
4.41% 45.40%
23.40
88.52
10.73% 50.58%
23.40
128.04
10.73% 73.17%
173.69
57.39
30.00% 16.63%
173.69
117.75
30.00% 34.13%
6.21
108.45
4.74% 95.97%
6.21
141.67
4.74% 125.37%
1.22
120.27
0.74% 69.52%
1.22
164.26
0.74% 94.95%
7.06
6.20
11.35% 11.70%
7.06
15.08
11.35% 28.46%
Sep-04
5.56
11.34%
5.56
11.34%
172.26
74.25%
172.26
74.25%
3.70
6.14%
3.70
6.14%
127.86
68.38%
127.86
68.38%
98.89
78.49%
98.89
78.49%
48.86
20.97%
48.86
20.97%
14.04
3.37%
14.04
3.37%
34.79
23.65%
34.79
23.65%
49.92
26.56%
49.92
26.56%
14.38
18.44%
14.38
18.44%
Oct-04
0.57
1.63%
0.57
1.63%
46.77
13.25%
46.77
13.25%
1.74
3.11%
1.74
3.11%
68.54
35.15%
68.54
35.15%
80.43
120.05%
80.43
120.05%
28.74
16.91%
28.74
16.91%
216.65
48.37%
216.65
48.37%
4.83
3.60%
4.83
3.60%
6.07
3.73%
6.07
3.73%
32.25
104.05%
32.25
104.05%
Nov-04
31.20
60.01%
28.08
54.01%
17.89
4.22%
43.02
10.15%
1.59
2.09%
13.23
17.41%
55.74
24.34%
98.45
42.99%
10.60
12.04%
1.01
1.15%
30.21
14.53%
3.55
1.70%
67.48
15.48%
12.20
2.80%
33.42
26.74%
19.68
15.75%
45.27
37.11%
70.36
57.67%
0.79
1.40%
7.54
13.39%
Dec-04
9.31
20.62%
1.58
3.51%
205.91
64.15%
228.93
71.32%
25.62
59.57%
11.89
27.66%
68.41
30.68%
99.33
44.54%
40.77
61.78%
19.42
29.42%
11.75
5.69%
31.88
15.45%
1.69
0.43%
77.25
19.66%
62.10
92.69%
36.28
54.15%
40.08
30.05%
5.39
4.04%
33.21
72.20%
17.37
37.76%
Jan-05
12.22
39.43%
3.58
11.54%
31.95
11.45%
30.24
10.84%
17.51
43.78%
6.01
15.02%
18.62
10.40%
20.90
11.68%
41.55
38.12%
55.04
50.49%
1.51
0.79%
36.79
19.36%
134.32
49.20%
52.86
19.36%
56.69
75.58%
30.35
40.47%
4.60
2.67%
38.08
22.14%
11.85
30.39%
17.28
44.31%
Feb-05
4.65
11.05%
11.65
27.71%
37.19
8.71%
106.82
25.02%
6.96
11.31%
17.24
28.01%
30.74
13.25%
0.55
0.24%
38.18
32.63%
26.36
22.53%
0.07
0.04%
29.38
15.04%
71.25
14.72%
9.34
1.93%
23.42
21.88%
42.98
40.17%
41.19
32.96%
28.62
22.90%
10.19
19.60%
3.92
7.53%
Mar-05
23.29
101.28%
14.03
61.02%
16.92
4.54%
61.07
16.37%
16.37
26.10%
25.63
40.88%
64.17
45.19%
22.93
16.15%
6.09
8.83%
18.67
27.06%
36.62
15.65%
76.09
32.52%
134.40
47.32%
50.72
17.86%
59.55
66.91%
65.44
73.53%
28.87
31.38%
4.69
5.10%
2.13
4.83%
10.50
23.87%
Apr-05
8.79
22.78%
8.79
22.78%
124.93
30.40%
124.93
30.40%
30.86
48.24%
30.86
48.24%
25.98
14.68%
25.98
14.68%
24.17
21.39%
24.17
21.39%
55.41
21.81%
55.41
21.81%
97.52
36.66%
97.52
36.66%
31.41
31.73%
31.41
31.73%
94.89
118.61%
94.89
118.61%
5.06
10.76%
5.06
10.76%
May-05
2.14
6.30%
7.56
22.24%
1.31
0.36%
53.09
14.59%
17.04
23.34%
8.64
11.84%
63.87
22.73%
31.30
11.14%
24.69
17.14%
6.79
4.72%
47.01
19.43%
17.77
7.34%
182.25
59.75%
255.33
83.72%
9.09
8.34%
5.90
5.41%
17.25
10.21%
5.51
3.26%
9.85
16.98%
2.62
4.52%
Jun-05
0.55
2.19%
0.55
2.19%
81.50
27.91%
81.50
27.91%
0.79
1.21%
0.79
1.21%
15.32
11.18%
15.32
11.18%
35.43
69.48%
35.43
69.48%
14.85
6.43%
14.85
6.43%
28.68
7.91%
28.68
7.91%
23.71
20.10%
23.71
20.10%
44.01
37.61%
44.01
37.61%
16.11
25.18%
16.11
25.18%
Averages
221
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
9.53
10.24
Holdout
MAPE
26.55%
74.06
56.69
16.53%
25.65
16.25
31.07%
152.79
65.02
25.69%
58.98
50.23
39.28%
39.94
30.04
13.89%
74.63
101.11
25.61%
36.27
37.32
31.55%
35.51
46.08
31.10%
23.15
14.97
29.06%
53.05
42.79
27.03%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
10.75
10.16
25.74%
95.84
80.65
21.69%
28.11
16.53
29.82%
156.44
58.12
22.87%
60.42
46.65
35.96%
44.97
32.65
15.64%
75.04
104.61
25.93%
38.96
34.59
28.85%
36.19
43.32
29.18%
20.93
14.31
27.72%
56.77
44.16
26.34%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
7.02
12.76%
7.02
12.76%
17.25
3.27%
17.25
3.27%
12.78
14.05%
12.78
14.05%
51.71
13.68%
51.71
13.68%
115.71
43.50%
115.71
43.50%
39.41
16.63%
39.41
16.63%
34.56
6.04%
34.56
6.04%
29.00
15.76%
29.00
15.76%
55.86
29.09%
55.86
29.09%
11.70
19.75%
11.70
19.75%
Aug-03
5.25
9.91%
1.91
3.60%
62.71
11.59%
9.03
1.67%
15.63
24.27%
27.64
42.91%
162.97
34.90%
162.97
34.90%
76.44
26.63%
44.85
15.63%
32.30
12.57%
1.41
0.55%
66.01
12.81%
66.01
12.81%
42.72
20.34%
17.63
8.40%
40.39
16.49%
9.70
3.96%
12.27
14.26%
1.21
1.40%
Sep-03
12.31
30.02%
12.31
30.02%
38.69
7.58%
38.69
7.58%
4.66
5.89%
4.66
5.89%
2.66
0.75%
2.66
0.75%
41.83
17.12%
41.83
17.12%
17.31
7.21%
17.31
7.21%
149.33
22.12%
149.33
22.12%
12.37
6.95%
12.37
6.95%
12.84
6.55%
12.84
6.55%
24.37
45.99%
24.37
45.99%
Oct-03
Nov-03
7.59
5.89
15.06% 16.37%
16.29
5.89
32.32% 16.37%
132.22
252.86
31.78% 49.29%
214.45
252.86
51.55% 49.29%
14.12
59.18
25.67% 174.05%
24.49
59.18
44.53% 174.05%
43.31
16.97
11.22%
5.11%
43.31
16.97
11.22%
5.11%
21.75
87.96
10.07% 52.67%
57.41
87.96
26.58% 52.67%
12.73
119.45
4.75% 57.71%
54.84
119.45
20.46% 57.71%
166.25
13.93
36.46%
2.75%
166.25
13.93
36.46%
2.75%
70.96
54.83
46.38% 40.62%
104.56
54.83
68.34% 40.62%
49.56
76.54
28.32% 57.12%
83.24
76.54
47.57% 57.12%
14.18
7.02
18.18% 11.55%
28.01
7.02
35.91% 11.55%
Dec-03
10.14
21.66%
17.48
37.33%
130.68
25.62%
2.55
0.50%
24.21
55.02%
10.57
24.02%
16.50
6.55%
16.50
6.55%
36.71
18.01%
11.40
5.59%
29.32
14.03%
18.35
8.78%
51.51
9.59%
51.51
9.59%
19.91
12.25%
16.59
10.20%
38.12
19.86%
68.90
35.88%
2.38
3.72%
14.70
22.98%
Jan-04
13.24
37.82%
3.59
10.26%
65.59
16.24%
28.33
7.01%
10.03
15.64%
4.80
7.49%
67.03
29.53%
67.03
29.53%
77.33
66.09%
38.46
32.87%
3.71
1.74%
45.57
21.39%
83.31
15.48%
83.31
15.48%
35.07
25.23%
0.26
0.18%
8.47
5.57%
23.63
15.54%
19.50
55.70%
8.60
24.56%
Feb-04
21.39
62.92%
29.70
87.35%
24.61
4.67%
107.35
20.37%
1.15
1.85%
10.65
17.13%
22.77
6.49%
22.77
6.49%
72.15
53.84%
103.07
76.92%
12.73
6.40%
44.49
22.36%
106.06
21.53%
106.06
21.53%
12.62
7.34%
11.29
6.56%
10.41
5.92%
14.39
8.19%
12.47
14.84%
1.74
2.07%
Mar-04
0.55
1.36%
7.56
18.91%
140.00
43.21%
47.20
14.57%
13.89
47.90%
5.31
18.32%
8.98
3.77%
8.98
3.77%
78.38
74.64%
41.70
39.72%
13.89
6.81%
29.69
14.55%
152.43
45.64%
152.43
45.64%
16.87
14.93%
9.10
8.06%
25.06
17.52%
8.55
5.98%
1.50
2.61%
10.34
17.92%
Apr-04
7.32
15.91%
7.32
15.91%
18.62
4.13%
18.62
4.13%
26.20
32.35%
26.20
32.35%
73.24
22.13%
73.24
22.13%
21.64
14.52%
21.64
14.52%
9.46
4.70%
9.46
4.70%
130.48
29.20%
130.48
29.20%
5.76
4.09%
5.76
4.09%
0.13
0.07%
0.13
0.07%
13.24
28.78%
13.24
28.78%
May-04
11.36
24.71%
6.17
13.42%
7.37
1.55%
62.93
13.22%
15.98
26.73%
9.41
15.74%
39.87
12.16%
39.87
12.16%
26.64
21.65%
49.08
39.90%
56.11
23.28%
28.37
11.77%
149.22
45.63%
149.22
45.63%
25.62
12.81%
0.53
0.27%
65.32
26.88%
38.67
15.91%
10.63
14.18%
0.98
1.31%
Jun-04
1.41
3.43%
1.41
3.43%
4.95
1.42%
4.95
1.42%
28.39
60.40%
28.39
60.40%
24.41
7.77%
24.41
7.77%
51.73
26.53%
51.73
26.53%
6.08
3.30%
6.08
3.30%
37.40
8.26%
37.40
8.26%
20.89
13.39%
20.89
13.39%
27.29
12.24%
27.29
12.24%
18.52
27.65%
18.52
27.65%
Jul-04
Aug-04
12.60
18.06
34.06% 62.29%
12.60
25.12
34.06% 86.63%
34.99
21.00
8.66%
4.95%
34.99
39.51
8.66%
9.31%
7.42
16.22
12.05% 21.35%
7.42
7.26
12.05%
9.55%
100.49
226.97
38.21% 74.42%
100.49
226.97
38.21% 74.42%
22.17
98.32
17.32% 97.35%
22.17
128.22
17.32% 126.95%
7.38
50.09
3.39% 28.62%
7.38
83.85
3.39% 47.91%
105.14
139.98
18.16% 40.57%
105.14
139.98
18.16% 40.57%
17.66
51.78
13.48% 45.82%
17.66
76.50
13.48% 67.70%
47.94
42.33
28.88% 24.47%
47.94
74.63
28.88% 43.14%
0.41
19.02
0.66% 35.88%
0.41
29.82
0.66% 56.26%
Sep-04
4.03
8.21%
4.03
8.21%
201.20
86.73%
201.20
86.73%
2.38
3.95%
2.38
3.95%
127.22
68.03%
127.22
68.03%
33.80
26.83%
33.80
26.83%
7.93
3.40%
7.93
3.40%
83.53
20.03%
83.53
20.03%
16.26
11.05%
16.26
11.05%
11.75
6.25%
11.75
6.25%
10.33
13.24%
10.33
13.24%
Oct-04
11.63
33.22%
11.63
33.22%
59.27
16.79%
59.27
16.79%
1.27
2.28%
1.27
2.28%
155.15
79.56%
155.15
79.56%
85.99
128.35%
85.99
128.35%
79.01
46.48%
79.01
46.48%
40.58
9.06%
40.58
9.06%
30.00
22.32%
30.00
22.32%
30.96
19.06%
30.96
19.06%
47.65
153.70%
47.65
153.70%
Nov-04
15.73
30.26%
10.29
19.80%
96.87
22.85%
175.00
41.27%
12.70
16.72%
3.21
4.22%
18.58
8.11%
18.58
8.11%
58.05
65.96%
79.95
90.86%
61.67
29.65%
102.11
49.09%
41.17
9.44%
41.17
9.44%
18.47
14.77%
39.99
31.99%
55.25
45.29%
81.84
67.08%
8.55
15.20%
18.28
32.48%
Dec-04
11.41
25.29%
18.16
40.23%
149.08
46.44%
55.06
17.15%
11.75
27.32%
0.80
1.85%
31.73
14.23%
31.73
14.23%
68.11
103.19%
41.28
62.55%
4.57
2.22%
44.94
21.77%
80.69
20.53%
80.69
20.53%
81.60
121.79%
51.88
77.43%
20.78
15.58%
10.05
7.53%
8.44
18.34%
2.45
5.33%
Jan-05
12.10
39.03%
3.48
11.22%
78.26
28.05%
6.81
2.44%
34.00
85.00%
19.20
48.00%
19.97
11.16%
19.97
11.16%
9.16
8.40%
29.12
26.72%
1.89
0.99%
39.51
20.80%
122.39
44.83%
122.39
44.83%
66.28
88.37%
38.02
50.70%
25.27
14.69%
54.62
31.75%
4.70
12.05%
4.04
10.36%
Feb-05
6.16
14.65%
13.38
31.85%
10.06
2.36%
52.48
12.29%
3.27
5.31%
12.99
21.11%
47.23
20.36%
47.23
20.36%
16.57
14.17%
1.51
1.29%
5.02
2.57%
23.53
12.05%
21.52
4.45%
21.52
4.45%
19.24
17.98%
38.17
35.67%
21.17
16.94%
43.10
34.48%
12.40
23.84%
22.06
42.42%
Mar-05
16.31
70.92%
8.45
36.74%
51.11
13.70%
115.49
30.96%
25.26
40.29%
32.75
52.23%
34.78
24.49%
34.78
24.49%
28.91
41.90%
9.33
13.52%
38.68
16.53%
77.75
33.22%
49.32
17.37%
49.32
17.37%
2.99
3.36%
15.40
17.31%
56.41
61.32%
26.73
29.05%
8.39
19.07%
2.09
4.74%
Apr-05
2.19
5.67%
2.19
5.67%
72.42
17.62%
72.42
17.62%
4.80
7.51%
4.80
7.51%
26.79
15.13%
26.79
15.13%
4.02
3.56%
4.02
3.56%
74.35
29.27%
74.35
29.27%
168.47
63.34%
168.47
63.34%
4.54
4.59%
4.54
4.59%
75.64
94.55%
75.64
94.55%
0.74
1.57%
0.74
1.57%
May-05
0.13
0.39%
4.95
14.55%
26.98
7.41%
85.62
23.52%
19.48
26.68%
11.45
15.68%
28.91
10.29%
28.91
10.29%
49.66
34.49%
35.51
24.66%
50.92
21.04%
22.26
9.20%
51.24
16.80%
51.24
16.80%
22.09
20.27%
41.76
38.31%
8.20
4.85%
15.92
9.42%
2.89
4.98%
5.38
9.28%
Jun-05
10.20
40.81%
10.20
40.81%
0.50
0.17%
0.50
0.17%
4.22
6.46%
4.22
6.46%
84.74
61.85%
84.74
61.85%
55.13
108.10%
55.13
108.10%
39.66
17.17%
39.66
17.17%
28.26
7.80%
28.26
7.80%
17.68
14.98%
17.68
14.98%
33.52
28.65%
33.52
28.65%
19.31
30.18%
19.31
30.18%
Averages
222
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
22.07
9.33
Holdout
MAPE
25.70%
182.14
70.72
19.00%
33.54
15.38
30.78%
215.22
59.71
24.16%
103.73
51.59
44.79%
86.18
32.24
15.02%
175.24
86.37
22.00%
89.89
28.97
24.95%
82.66
34.97
24.42%
43.34
12.11
24.41%
103.40
40.14
25.52%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
22.40
10.05
26.86%
198.31
70.94
18.40%
34.66
13.83
26.74%
215.22
59.71
24.16%
103.17
49.62
42.59%
90.79
42.36
20.13%
175.24
86.37
22.00%
92.63
27.94
23.68%
88.39
38.60
26.58%
44.59
12.62
25.00%
106.54
41.20
25.61%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Alpha, Gamma Fitted
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
10.10
18.36%
10.10
18.36%
25.45
4.82%
25.45
4.82%
3.57
3.92%
3.57
3.92%
2.34
0.62%
2.34
0.62%
144.06
54.16%
144.06
54.16%
44.16
18.63%
44.16
18.63%
103.59
18.11%
103.59
18.11%
11.25
6.12%
11.25
6.12%
47.11
24.54%
47.11
24.54%
6.79
11.46%
6.79
11.46%
Aug-03
13.77
25.98%
7.88
14.87%
77.38
14.30%
7.84
1.45%
15.87
24.64%
27.92
43.33%
65.45
14.02%
65.45
14.02%
114.85
40.02%
89.03
31.02%
50.27
19.56%
19.26
7.49%
91.47
17.75%
91.47
17.75%
53.14
25.31%
29.61
14.10%
25.85
10.55%
7.02
2.87%
9.35
10.87%
2.15
2.50%
Sep-03
11.70
28.54%
11.70
28.54%
7.65
1.50%
7.65
1.50%
5.60
7.09%
5.60
7.09%
34.23
9.59%
34.23
9.59%
17.82
7.29%
17.82
7.29%
1.21
0.50%
1.21
0.50%
145.96
21.62%
145.96
21.62%
30.41
17.09%
30.41
17.09%
25.23
12.87%
25.23
12.87%
29.02
54.76%
29.02
54.76%
Oct-03
Nov-03
10.23
15.64
20.30% 43.45%
19.32
15.64
38.34% 43.45%
104.77
149.08
25.18% 29.06%
182.88
149.08
43.96% 29.06%
12.49
39.60
22.71% 116.47%
22.61
39.60
41.11% 116.47%
74.90
30.13
19.40%
9.08%
74.90
30.13
19.40%
9.08%
17.24
92.87
7.98% 55.61%
52.23
92.87
24.18% 55.61%
13.06
99.53
4.87% 48.08%
25.18
99.53
9.39% 48.08%
144.03
7.11
31.59%
1.41%
144.03
7.11
31.59%
1.41%
77.54
34.40
50.68% 25.48%
112.13
34.40
73.29% 25.48%
45.28
76.31
25.88% 56.95%
78.32
76.31
44.76% 56.95%
9.58
0.40
12.28%
0.65%
22.71
0.40
29.12%
0.65%
Dec-03
5.52
11.78%
13.78
29.42%
82.04
16.09%
36.37
7.13%
19.71
44.80%
6.97
15.84%
25.12
9.97%
25.12
9.97%
34.86
17.10%
12.88
6.32%
30.38
14.53%
17.50
8.37%
41.42
7.71%
41.42
7.71%
19.05
11.71%
17.29
10.63%
19.33
10.07%
53.87
28.06%
8.82
13.78%
19.86
31.03%
Jan-04
Feb-04
15.97
27.37
45.63% 80.51%
5.78
36.58
16.51% 107.59%
114.80
33.53
28.42%
6.36%
11.04
117.61
2.73% 22.32%
13.82
6.50
21.55% 10.45%
1.77
16.80
2.76% 27.02%
117.97
10.26
51.97%
2.92%
117.97
10.26
51.97%
2.92%
54.13
42.77
46.26% 31.92%
19.90
69.29
17.01% 51.71%
29.59
2.63
13.89%
1.32%
18.93
32.88
8.89% 16.52%
43.25
79.49
8.04% 16.13%
43.25
79.49
8.04% 16.13%
49.37
9.57
35.52%
5.56%
11.69
14.80
8.41%
8.60%
15.23
25.44
10.02% 14.48%
18.21
2.90
11.98%
1.65%
27.39
1.65
78.26%
1.96%
14.91
10.70
42.61% 12.74%
Mar-04
2.47
6.18%
9.98
24.94%
172.73
53.31%
73.38
22.65%
21.14
72.90%
11.11
38.32%
13.02
5.47%
13.02
5.47%
57.81
55.05%
25.25
24.04%
8.18
4.01%
34.25
16.79%
162.21
48.56%
162.21
48.56%
9.76
8.63%
14.80
13.09%
10.08
7.05%
20.54
14.36%
9.58
16.59%
3.88
6.73%
Apr-04
9.31
20.24%
9.31
20.24%
14.86
3.29%
14.86
3.29%
19.32
23.85%
19.32
23.85%
69.89
21.11%
69.89
21.11%
35.80
24.03%
35.80
24.03%
27.41
13.64%
27.41
13.64%
113.46
25.39%
113.46
25.39%
21.23
15.06%
21.23
15.06%
22.30
12.60%
22.30
12.60%
7.36
15.99%
7.36
15.99%
May-04
5.25
11.41%
0.86
1.88%
13.82
2.90%
55.51
11.66%
19.52
32.63%
13.47
22.53%
50.02
15.25%
50.02
15.25%
78.00
63.42%
108.15
87.93%
27.28
11.32%
4.78
1.98%
147.36
45.07%
147.36
45.07%
43.86
21.93%
20.44
10.22%
78.85
32.45%
54.22
22.31%
14.58
19.44%
5.52
7.36%
Jun-04
1.60
3.90%
1.60
3.90%
26.23
7.52%
26.23
7.52%
21.62
46.00%
21.62
46.00%
2.10
0.67%
2.10
0.67%
25.66
13.16%
25.66
13.16%
11.58
6.30%
11.58
6.30%
13.81
3.05%
13.81
3.05%
11.76
7.54%
11.76
7.54%
64.70
29.01%
64.70
29.01%
16.01
23.89%
16.01
23.89%
Jul-04
Aug-04
10.82
12.57
29.23% 43.34%
10.82
18.80
29.23% 64.84%
27.88
21.06
6.90%
4.96%
27.88
39.44
6.90%
9.29%
10.60
22.55
17.22% 29.67%
10.60
14.53
17.22% 19.12%
82.27
163.12
31.28% 53.48%
82.27
163.12
31.28% 53.48%
34.25
85.23
26.76% 84.39%
34.25
113.17
26.76% 112.05%
3.62
41.08
1.66% 23.48%
3.62
73.50
1.66% 42.00%
143.27
111.39
24.74% 32.29%
143.27
111.39
24.74% 32.29%
40.64
63.32
31.02% 56.03%
40.64
89.77
31.02% 79.44%
41.41
82.52
24.95% 47.70%
41.41
120.85
24.95% 69.86%
6.41
23.08
10.31% 43.54%
6.41
34.49
10.31% 65.07%
Sep-04
Oct-04
11.05
7.40
22.56% 21.15%
11.05
7.40
22.56% 21.15%
168.42
9.17
72.59%
2.60%
168.42
9.17
72.59%
2.60%
3.31
5.64
5.49% 10.08%
3.31
5.64
5.49% 10.08%
118.26
155.37
63.24% 79.68%
118.26
155.37
63.24% 79.68%
33.26
65.16
26.39% 97.25%
33.26
65.16
26.39% 97.25%
16.40
52.35
7.04% 30.80%
16.40
52.35
7.04% 30.80%
110.56
27.57
26.51%
6.16%
110.56
27.57
26.51%
6.16%
5.18
9.96
3.52%
7.41%
5.18
9.96
3.52%
7.41%
26.84
26.95
14.28% 16.59%
26.84
26.95
14.28% 16.59%
15.93
43.55
20.42% 140.48%
15.93
43.55
20.42% 140.48%
Nov-04
14.55
27.99%
8.94
17.19%
2.97
0.70%
60.18
14.19%
34.43
45.30%
28.19
37.10%
16.66
7.28%
16.66
7.28%
31.79
36.12%
49.76
56.54%
10.58
5.09%
43.37
20.85%
39.21
8.99%
39.21
8.99%
2.04
1.63%
16.40
13.12%
43.38
35.56%
68.19
55.89%
5.63
10.01%
14.92
26.52%
Dec-04
6.97
15.44%
14.60
32.35%
102.10
31.81%
17.48
5.44%
6.06
14.09%
3.75
8.73%
36.36
16.31%
36.36
16.31%
53.19
80.59%
29.35
44.47%
16.86
8.17%
54.77
26.54%
62.63
15.94%
62.63
15.94%
78.01
116.43%
49.01
73.14%
53.13
39.83%
15.83
11.87%
6.50
14.13%
4.00
8.69%
Jan-05
9.60
30.96%
1.48
4.77%
83.96
30.09%
11.37
4.08%
44.23
110.57%
27.38
68.46%
18.70
10.45%
18.70
10.45%
32.13
29.48%
47.51
43.58%
11.88
6.25%
28.50
15.00%
158.80
58.17%
158.80
58.17%
65.69
87.59%
37.55
50.07%
15.90
9.25%
47.12
27.40%
1.81
4.65%
6.35
16.28%
Feb-05
3.37
8.01%
10.18
24.22%
3.51
0.82%
60.01
14.05%
14.95
24.28%
26.42
42.93%
45.88
19.77%
45.88
19.77%
37.91
32.40%
26.04
22.26%
10.00
5.12%
17.80
9.11%
58.20
12.02%
58.20
12.02%
26.26
24.55%
46.25
43.23%
25.09
20.07%
47.60
38.08%
21.47
41.29%
32.49
62.48%
Mar-05
16.97
73.80%
8.98
39.04%
67.39
18.07%
128.51
34.45%
22.26
35.50%
30.35
48.40%
38.98
27.45%
38.98
27.45%
11.23
16.27%
4.82
6.98%
42.93
18.35%
81.15
34.68%
18.30
6.44%
18.30
6.44%
2.50
2.81%
19.80
22.25%
47.94
52.11%
19.95
21.69%
12.76
28.99%
1.41
3.20%
Apr-05
4.87
12.63%
4.87
12.63%
40.20
9.78%
40.20
9.78%
14.53
22.71%
14.53
22.71%
44.07
24.90%
44.07
24.90%
2.99
2.65%
2.99
2.65%
53.59
21.10%
53.59
21.10%
147.72
55.53%
147.72
55.53%
8.89
8.98%
8.89
8.98%
68.74
85.93%
68.74
85.93%
4.63
9.86%
4.63
9.86%
May-05
5.59
16.45%
11.53
33.91%
47.10
12.94%
108.76
29.88%
11.30
15.48%
2.05
2.80%
37.80
13.45%
37.80
13.45%
33.46
23.24%
16.88
11.72%
14.79
6.11%
19.29
7.97%
28.98
9.50%
28.98
9.50%
22.85
20.96%
42.62
39.10%
2.77
1.64%
22.16
13.11%
0.51
0.88%
8.11
13.99%
Jun-05
10.44
41.74%
10.44
41.74%
26.36
9.03%
26.36
9.03%
4.68
7.15%
4.68
7.15%
70.53
51.48%
70.53
51.48%
86.30
169.21%
86.30
169.21%
33.84
14.65%
33.84
14.65%
17.93
4.95%
17.93
4.95%
11.37
9.63%
11.37
9.63%
15.31
13.08%
15.31
13.08%
13.28
20.75%
13.28
20.75%
Averages
223
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
21.89
10.13
Holdout
MAPE
27.48%
181.62
59.27
16.38%
34.90
16.39
31.86%
215.15
55.14
23.28%
103.46
50.95
43.36%
85.96
27.22
12.69%
171.83
84.07
21.07%
89.11
29.50
25.05%
80.59
37.74
25.31%
42.47
12.34
25.22%
102.70
38.27
25.17%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
22.49
10.90
28.82%
195.67
58.57
15.43%
35.67
15.07
28.27%
215.15
55.14
23.28%
103.34
50.10
42.35%
90.44
33.95
16.17%
171.83
84.07
21.07%
91.83
29.47
24.61%
87.13
41.32
27.28%
43.72
13.54
26.54%
105.73
39.21
25.38%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error

Jul-03
8.43
15.33%
8.43
15.33%
1.78
0.34%
1.78
0.34%
9.90
10.88%
9.90
10.88%
21.01
5.56%
21.01
5.56%
131.01
49.25%
131.01
49.25%
33.83
14.27%
33.83
14.27%
4.94
0.86%
4.94
0.86%
28.02
15.23%
28.02
15.23%
75.40
39.27%
75.40
39.27%
4.68
7.89%
4.68
7.89%
Aug-03
5.66
10.67%
1.45
2.73%
40.02
7.40%
35.13
6.49%
19.21
29.81%
31.75
49.28%
108.28
23.19%
108.28
23.19%
95.03
33.11%
66.23
23.08%
24.53
9.54%
10.35
4.03%
110.25
21.40%
110.25
21.40%
43.29
20.62%
18.29
8.71%
29.15
11.90%
3.23
1.32%
16.64
19.35%
6.24
7.26%
Sep-03
12.79
31.19%
12.79
31.19%
64.66
12.67%
64.66
12.67%
0.60
0.76%
0.60
0.76%
30.35
8.50%
30.35
8.50%
50.48
20.66%
50.48
20.66%
28.31
11.80%
28.31
11.80%
106.26
15.74%
106.26
15.74%
12.09
6.79%
12.09
6.79%
19.63
10.01%
19.63
10.01%
20.38
38.45%
20.38
38.45%
Oct-03
Nov-03
9.17
7.21
18.19% 20.02%
18.10
7.21
35.92% 20.02%
157.45
290.12
37.85% 56.55%
243.47
290.12
58.53% 56.55%
17.96
65.02
32.66% 191.22%
28.91
65.02
52.56% 191.22%
2.72
50.13
0.70% 15.10%
2.72
50.13
0.70% 15.10%
17.30
87.97
8.01% 52.68%
52.30
87.97
24.21% 52.68%
27.46
138.10
10.24% 66.71%
71.77
138.10
26.78% 66.71%
218.53
31.87
47.92%
6.30%
218.53
31.87
47.92%
6.30%
72.95
57.01
47.68% 42.23%
106.84
57.01
69.83% 42.23%
54.72
78.03
31.27% 58.23%
89.17
78.03
50.96% 58.23%
10.67
4.03
13.69%
6.63%
23.98
4.03
30.74%
6.63%
Dec-03
9.10
19.44%
16.65
35.55%
156.63
30.71%
23.31
4.57%
28.03
63.70%
13.62
30.96%
13.20
5.24%
13.20
5.24%
38.78
19.03%
9.74
4.78%
43.18
20.66%
7.26
3.47%
101.93
18.98%
101.93
18.98%
20.32
12.49%
16.27
10.01%
40.31
20.99%
70.64
36.79%
4.88
7.63%
16.71
26.10%
Jan-04
14.21
40.60%
4.37
12.48%
76.13
18.84%
19.90
4.93%
12.68
19.78%
2.68
4.18%
35.73
15.74%
35.73
15.74%
78.85
67.39%
39.68
33.92%
5.36
2.52%
38.31
17.99%
43.64
8.11%
43.64
8.11%
33.43
24.05%
1.06
0.76%
1.63
1.07%
29.09
19.14%
18.23
52.08%
7.58
21.67%
Feb-04
22.83
67.15%
31.36
92.22%
27.98
5.31%
111.23
21.11%
1.99
3.20%
11.61
18.68%
19.26
5.49%
19.26
5.49%
74.18
55.36%
105.41
78.66%
20.17
10.14%
53.05
26.66%
150.58
30.56%
150.58
30.56%
15.24
8.86%
8.27
4.81%
17.25
9.82%
6.51
3.71%
14.19
16.90%
3.72
4.43%
Mar-04
0.98
2.44%
7.22
18.05%
135.18
41.72%
43.34
13.38%
13.63
47.01%
5.11
17.61%
37.41
15.72%
37.41
15.72%
77.12
73.45%
40.70
38.76%
20.09
9.85%
24.73
12.12%
187.73
56.21%
187.73
56.21%
12.80
11.33%
12.36
10.94%
15.99
11.18%
15.80
11.05%
1.60
2.77%
12.82
22.22%
Apr-04
7.65
16.63%
7.65
16.63%
29.24
6.48%
29.24
6.48%
27.58
34.05%
27.58
34.05%
105.06
31.74%
105.06
31.74%
17.93
12.03%
17.93
12.03%
6.05
3.01%
6.05
3.01%
159.97
35.79%
159.97
35.79%
0.64
0.46%
0.64
0.46%
9.60
5.43%
9.60
5.43%
9.19
19.97%
9.19
19.97%
May-04
11.87
25.81%
6.75
14.68%
31.21
6.56%
35.51
7.46%
18.57
31.05%
12.38
20.70%
3.88
1.18%
3.88
1.18%
19.77
16.08%
41.19
33.49%
54.85
22.76%
26.93
11.17%
168.08
51.40%
168.08
51.40%
34.24
17.12%
9.37
4.69%
76.62
31.53%
51.66
21.26%
14.95
19.93%
5.94
7.92%
Jun-04
2.08
5.08%
2.08
5.08%
25.67
7.36%
25.67
7.36%
24.60
52.33%
24.60
52.33%
8.91
2.84%
8.91
2.84%
62.35
31.97%
62.35
31.97%
6.08
3.30%
6.08
3.30%
29.84
6.59%
29.84
6.59%
27.91
17.89%
27.91
17.89%
38.58
17.30%
38.58
17.30%
22.03
32.88%
22.03
32.88%
Jul-04
Aug-04
12.07
17.67
32.62% 60.92%
12.07
24.67
32.62% 85.06%
6.87
46.89
1.70% 11.05%
6.87
9.74
1.70%
2.29%
4.20
20.04
6.83% 26.37%
4.20
11.64
6.83% 15.32%
66.54
180.75
25.30% 59.26%
66.54
180.75
25.30% 59.26%
6.97
79.11
5.45% 78.33%
6.97
106.12
5.45% 105.07%
6.87
49.91
3.15% 28.52%
6.87
83.64
3.15% 47.80%
113.28
131.52
19.57% 38.12%
113.28
131.52
19.57% 38.12%
10.26
43.94
7.83% 38.88%
10.26
67.48
7.83% 59.72%
39.03
35.58
23.51% 20.57%
39.03
66.87
23.51% 38.65%
4.51
16.50
7.26% 31.14%
4.51
26.93
7.26% 50.81%
Sep-04
Oct-04
4.72
10.28
9.63% 29.37%
4.72
10.28
9.63% 29.37%
171.21
30.89
73.80%
8.75%
171.21
30.89
73.80%
8.75%
6.44
4.27
10.68%
7.62%
6.44
4.27
10.68%
7.62%
99.30
116.80
53.10% 59.90%
99.30
116.80
53.10% 59.90%
16.05
63.49
12.74% 94.75%
16.05
63.49
12.74% 94.75%
8.13
77.41
3.49% 45.54%
8.13
77.41
3.49% 45.54%
74.02
25.32
17.75%
5.65%
74.02
25.32
17.75%
5.65%
7.45
18.99
5.06% 14.13%
7.45
18.99
5.06% 14.13%
5.36
24.13
2.85% 14.85%
5.36
24.13
2.85% 14.85%
12.21
44.91
15.66% 144.88%
12.21
44.91
15.66% 144.88%
Nov-04
16.55
31.83%
11.24
21.61%
50.01
11.79%
121.11
28.56%
15.48
20.37%
6.40
8.42%
14.07
6.14%
14.07
6.14%
34.01
38.65%
52.31
59.45%
60.59
29.13%
100.87
48.50%
58.48
13.41%
58.48
13.41%
8.67
6.94%
28.72
22.98%
48.81
40.01%
74.44
61.01%
7.18
12.77%
16.70
29.68%
Dec-04
12.69
28.12%
19.18
42.50%
104.03
32.41%
19.03
5.93%
9.60
22.33%
0.92
2.14%
63.92
28.67%
63.92
28.67%
39.65
60.08%
18.52
28.06%
8.46
4.10%
48.05
23.28%
55.54
14.13%
55.54
14.13%
70.36
105.01%
42.89
64.01%
14.29
10.72%
15.24
11.43%
6.16
13.39%
4.27
9.29%
Jan-05
11.18
36.07%
2.74
8.85%
39.55
14.17%
24.16
8.66%
32.56
81.39%
18.05
45.11%
15.69
8.76%
15.69
8.76%
33.72
30.94%
48.78
44.75%
8.30
4.37%
44.64
23.49%
102.83
37.67%
102.83
37.67%
55.07
73.42%
29.05
38.74%
34.18
19.87%
61.74
35.90%
3.23
8.29%
5.21
13.37%
Feb-05
5.75
13.68%
12.92
30.73%
63.65
14.91%
9.15
2.14%
2.20
3.57%
11.76
19.11%
0.55
0.24%
0.55
0.24%
46.39
39.65%
35.80
30.60%
11.80
6.04%
15.73
8.05%
49.85
10.30%
49.85
10.30%
5.24
4.89%
22.07
20.63%
10.88
8.70%
31.26
25.01%
9.52
18.31%
18.75
36.06%
Mar-05
15.63
67.95%
7.90
34.36%
97.63
26.18%
152.71
40.94%
26.40
42.11%
33.67
53.69%
3.23
2.27%
3.23
2.27%
1.20
1.74%
12.84
18.60%
46.16
19.73%
83.73
35.78%
23.08
8.13%
23.08
8.13%
10.62
11.93%
26.30
29.55%
46.33
50.35%
18.66
20.28%
5.07
11.53%
4.74
10.78%
Apr-05
1.41
3.67%
1.41
3.67%
120.91
29.42%
120.91
29.42%
6.63
10.37%
6.63
10.37%
11.24
6.35%
11.24
6.35%
32.59
28.84%
32.59
28.84%
81.53
32.10%
81.53
32.10%
131.08
49.28%
131.08
49.28%
12.62
12.75%
12.62
12.75%
63.85
79.81%
63.85
79.81%
5.22
11.11%
5.22
11.11%
May-05
1.42
4.19%
3.46
10.18%
25.74
7.07%
25.00
6.87%
20.08
27.51%
12.14
16.63%
80.29
28.57%
80.29
28.57%
75.90
52.71%
65.68
45.61%
57.26
23.66%
29.55
12.21%
18.53
6.07%
18.53
6.07%
1.06
0.97%
15.13
13.88%
23.95
14.17%
2.19
1.30%
8.67
14.95%
1.27
2.20%
Jun-05
8.51
34.04%
8.51
34.04%
34.93
11.96%
34.93
11.96%
3.17
4.84%
3.17
4.84%
38.37
28.01%
38.37
28.01%
27.29
53.50%
27.29
53.50%
43.10
18.66%
43.10
18.66%
67.47
18.62%
67.47
18.62%
36.03
30.53%
36.03
30.53%
13.59
11.62%
13.59
11.62%
23.99
37.48%
23.99
37.48%
Averages
224
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
22.55
9.58
Holdout
MAPE
26.03%
191.24
76.18
19.79%
34.61
16.28
32.52%
217.21
46.95
18.23%
109.44
50.30
39.02%
90.83
36.15
16.80%
177.24
90.19
22.44%
90.53
26.59
22.38%
85.38
34.04
22.71%
41.99
12.03
23.54%
106.10
39.83
24.35%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
23.06
10.13
26.77%
209.26
68.71
17.54%
36.16
14.71
28.50%
217.21
46.95
18.23%
109.71
49.64
38.79%
95.52
44.50
20.97%
177.24
90.19
22.44%
93.33
25.63
21.34%
91.00
37.65
25.03%
43.15
12.75
24.78%
109.57
40.09
24.44%
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error

Jul-03
10.62
19.31%
10.62
19.31%
37.12
7.03%
37.12
7.03%
9.90
10.88%
9.90
10.88%
41.49
10.98%
41.49
10.98%
163.13
61.33%
163.13
61.33%
41.69
17.59%
41.69
17.59%
157.20
27.48%
157.20
27.48%
14.21
7.72%
14.21
7.72%
56.81
29.59%
56.81
29.59%
0.04
0.06%
0.04
0.06%
Aug-03
13.29
25.07%
7.33
13.83%
80.17
14.82%
11.05
2.04%
20.99
32.58%
33.80
52.46%
15.17
3.25%
15.17
3.25%
133.82
46.63%
110.84
38.62%
44.62
17.36%
12.76
4.96%
77.94
15.13%
77.94
15.13%
63.61
30.29%
41.66
19.84%
21.97
8.97%
11.49
4.69%
12.40
14.42%
1.36
1.58%
Sep-03
17.27
42.13%
17.27
42.13%
10.10
1.98%
10.10
1.98%
0.68
0.86%
0.68
0.86%
50.80
14.23%
50.80
14.23%
0.91
0.37%
0.91
0.37%
9.38
3.91%
9.38
3.91%
137.39
20.35%
137.39
20.35%
43.35
24.36%
43.35
24.36%
24.89
12.70%
24.89
12.70%
24.37
45.99%
24.37
45.99%
Oct-03
18.20
36.12%
28.49
56.54%
130.37
31.34%
212.33
51.04%
16.26
29.57%
26.95
49.01%
75.80
19.64%
75.80
19.64%
33.99
15.73%
71.48
33.09%
2.01
0.75%
42.51
15.86%
138.85
30.45%
138.85
30.45%
84.83
55.44%
120.50
78.76%
43.33
24.76%
76.08
43.47%
3.27
4.20%
15.47
19.83%
Nov-03
22.83
63.41%
22.83
63.41%
154.00
30.02%
154.00
30.02%
36.35
106.90%
36.35
106.90%
40.01
12.05%
40.01
12.05%
116.81
69.94%
116.81
69.94%
117.62
56.82%
117.62
56.82%
33.12
6.54%
33.12
6.54%
33.93
25.14%
33.93
25.14%
73.29
54.69%
73.29
54.69%
8.34
13.72%
8.34
13.72%
Dec-03
2.80
5.97%
11.60
24.78%
92.14
18.07%
28.29
5.55%
18.76
42.63%
6.21
14.10%
14.45
5.74%
14.45
5.74%
52.98
25.99%
1.62
0.79%
51.29
24.54%
0.77
0.37%
45.76
8.52%
45.76
8.52%
23.91
14.70%
13.40
8.24%
21.94
11.43%
55.95
29.14%
13.97
21.82%
23.97
37.46%
Jan-04
16.18
46.23%
5.95
16.99%
141.99
35.15%
32.79
8.12%
17.87
27.87%
1.47
2.29%
124.54
54.86%
124.54
54.86%
52.19
44.61%
18.35
15.69%
53.02
24.89%
0.18
0.09%
31.47
5.85%
31.47
5.85%
56.37
40.56%
17.30
12.44%
4.72
3.11%
26.62
17.52%
25.33
72.37%
13.26
37.90%
Feb-04
28.55
83.96%
37.93
111.56%
42.33
8.03%
127.73
24.24%
9.51
15.30%
20.26
32.59%
10.30
2.93%
10.30
2.93%
34.44
25.70%
59.71
44.56%
9.31
4.68%
40.55
20.38%
66.30
13.46%
66.30
13.46%
11.35
6.60%
12.75
7.41%
37.53
21.36%
16.80
9.56%
6.02
7.17%
5.67
6.75%
Mar-04
5.00
12.49%
12.00
29.99%
165.19
50.99%
67.36
20.79%
22.11
76.24%
11.89
41.00%
34.74
14.60%
34.74
14.60%
56.17
53.50%
23.94
22.80%
9.50
4.65%
33.20
16.28%
159.87
47.87%
159.87
47.87%
2.69
2.38%
20.45
18.10%
1.16
0.81%
27.67
19.35%
0.57
0.98%
11.09
19.21%
Apr-04
12.93
28.11%
12.93
28.11%
1.73
0.38%
1.73
0.38%
20.74
25.61%
20.74
25.61%
88.27
26.67%
88.27
26.67%
48.09
32.27%
48.09
32.27%
38.08
18.94%
38.08
18.94%
99.11
22.18%
99.11
22.18%
23.71
16.81%
23.71
16.81%
27.67
15.63%
27.67
15.63%
1.57
3.41%
1.57
3.41%
May-04
6.47
14.07%
0.54
1.18%
49.85
10.47%
14.07
2.96%
23.97
40.08%
18.59
31.09%
18.66
5.69%
18.66
5.69%
83.48
67.87%
114.45
93.05%
21.66
8.99%
11.24
4.66%
114.33
34.96%
114.33
34.96%
50.41
25.20%
27.97
13.98%
81.82
33.67%
57.64
23.72%
25.18
33.58%
17.71
23.61%
Jun-04
3.48
8.48%
3.48
8.48%
2.36
0.68%
2.36
0.68%
17.88
38.04%
17.88
38.04%
20.30
6.47%
20.30
6.47%
38.91
19.95%
38.91
19.95%
5.69
3.09%
5.69
3.09%
19.05
4.21%
19.05
4.21%
17.07
10.94%
17.07
10.94%
69.19
31.03%
69.19
31.03%
23.31
34.79%
23.31
34.79%
Jul-04
7.94
21.46%
7.94
21.46%
7.80
1.93%
7.80
1.93%
13.04
21.18%
13.04
21.18%
63.49
24.14%
63.49
24.14%
6.58
5.14%
6.58
5.14%
9.71
4.46%
9.71
4.46%
199.53
34.46%
199.53
34.46%
43.86
33.48%
43.86
33.48%
58.66
35.34%
58.66
35.34%
13.43
21.60%
13.43
21.60%
Aug-04
10.29
35.47%
16.18
55.79%
53.01
12.49%
2.70
0.64%
24.52
32.26%
16.79
22.10%
134.93
44.24%
134.93
44.24%
52.73
52.20%
75.78
75.03%
32.61
18.63%
63.75
36.43%
51.74
15.00%
51.74
15.00%
63.19
55.92%
89.62
79.31%
120.26
69.52%
164.25
94.94%
18.91
35.67%
29.69
56.02%
Sep-04
14.46
29.52%
14.46
29.52%
133.44
57.52%
133.44
57.52%
3.39
5.63%
3.39
5.63%
100.02
53.49%
100.02
53.49%
3.02
2.39%
3.02
2.39%
25.88
11.11%
25.88
11.11%
90.57
21.72%
90.57
21.72%
15.83
10.76%
15.83
10.76%
41.55
22.11%
41.55
22.11%
21.41
27.45%
21.41
27.45%
Oct-04
4.78
13.66%
4.78
13.66%
16.59
4.70%
16.59
4.70%
4.57
8.16%
4.57
8.16%
122.16
62.64%
122.16
62.64%
36.17
53.99%
36.17
53.99%
42.82
25.19%
42.82
25.19%
74.87
16.71%
74.87
16.71%
9.92
7.38%
9.92
7.38%
30.14
18.55%
30.14
18.55%
38.23
123.33%
38.23
123.33%
Nov-04
13.87
26.67%
8.15
15.67%
48.13
11.35%
8.25
1.94%
37.84
49.79%
32.11
42.25%
10.45
4.56%
10.45
4.56%
6.82
7.75%
21.04
23.91%
1.11
0.53%
29.93
14.39%
65.02
14.91%
65.02
14.91%
11.51
9.21%
5.51
4.41%
41.85
34.30%
66.43
54.45%
4.77
8.47%
13.92
24.74%
Dec-04
5.10
11.30%
13.11
29.04%
80.00
24.92%
0.20
0.06%
7.19
16.73%
2.84
6.62%
67.01
30.05%
67.01
30.05%
29.65
44.92%
10.52
15.94%
18.87
9.14%
56.37
27.31%
46.00
11.70%
46.00
11.70%
73.63
109.90%
45.51
67.92%
61.47
46.09%
22.50
16.87%
2.18
4.75%
7.45
16.20%
Jan-05
10.59
34.15%
2.27
7.32%
74.18
26.59%
3.54
1.27%
59.72
149.31%
39.78
99.45%
11.40
6.37%
11.40
6.37%
48.27
44.28%
60.42
55.43%
18.55
9.77%
23.16
12.19%
156.60
57.36%
156.60
57.36%
62.82
83.77%
35.26
47.01%
18.95
11.02%
49.56
28.81%
3.37
8.63%
10.49
26.91%
Feb-05
4.12
9.81%
11.05
26.28%
14.55
3.41%
47.32
11.08%
27.19
44.17%
40.50
65.80%
24.16
10.41%
24.16
10.41%
56.70
48.46%
47.66
40.73%
1.94
0.99%
27.07
13.86%
81.37
16.81%
81.37
16.81%
19.84
18.54%
38.87
36.32%
17.04
13.63%
38.35
30.68%
17.18
33.03%
27.55
52.99%
Mar-05
19.14
83.23%
10.71
46.59%
92.15
24.70%
148.32
39.76%
20.53
32.74%
28.97
46.19%
22.39
15.77%
22.39
15.77%
1.26
1.83%
12.79
18.53%
38.97
16.65%
77.97
33.32%
12.53
4.41%
12.53
4.41%
12.56
14.11%
27.85
31.29%
39.64
43.09%
13.32
14.47%
8.68
19.73%
1.85
4.21%
Apr-05
6.40
16.60%
6.40
16.60%
49.28
11.99%
49.28
11.99%
22.15
34.63%
22.15
34.63%
20.67
11.68%
20.67
11.68%
2.57
2.27%
2.57
2.27%
47.87
18.85%
47.87
18.85%
134.39
50.52%
134.39
50.52%
2.69
2.72%
2.69
2.72%
58.84
73.55%
58.84
73.55%
10.10
21.49%
10.10
21.49%
May-05
4.28
12.59%
10.02
29.48%
44.14
12.13%
105.36
28.94%
5.91
8.09%
4.16
5.69%
79.36
28.24%
79.36
28.24%
37.85
26.28%
21.92
15.22%
0.07
0.03%
36.22
14.97%
10.91
3.58%
10.91
3.58%
12.74
11.69%
31.01
28.45%
16.99
10.06%
5.81
3.44%
8.45
14.57%
1.02
1.76%
Jun-05
8.22
32.87%
8.22
32.87%
17.04
5.84%
17.04
5.84%
7.76
11.86%
7.76
11.86%
35.90
26.20%
35.90
26.20%
85.66
167.96%
85.66
167.96%
27.32
11.83%
27.32
11.83%
2.12
0.58%
2.12
0.58%
22.71
19.25%
22.71
19.25%
5.31
4.54%
5.31
4.54%
19.64
30.68%
19.64
30.68%
Averages
225
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
22.50
11.12
Holdout
MAPE
29.70%
187.87
64.07
16.94%
36.76
18.70
35.88%
217.03
51.10
20.62%
106.72
49.26
38.39%
89.35
27.90
13.06%
174.71
83.58
20.20%
89.20
32.36
26.54%
81.90
40.63
26.23%
42.13
12.95
25.08%
104.82
39.17
25.26%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
23.15
11.84
30.86%
200.91
51.61
13.35%
37.63
17.53
32.27%
217.03
51.10
20.62%
108.67
48.02
37.88%
93.91
34.24
16.12%
174.71
83.58
20.20%
92.93
31.46
25.50%
88.60
44.95
28.70%
43.26
14.21
27.15%
108.08
38.85
25.27%
SAP Automatic Model Selection
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
SAP Procedure 2
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
9.65
17.54%
9.65
17.54%
33.00
6.25%
33.00
6.25%
30.00
32.97%
30.00
32.97%
20.00
5.29%
20.00
5.29%
45.00
16.92%
45.00
16.92%
12.00
5.06%
12.00
5.06%
74.54
13.03%
74.54
13.03%
18.00
9.78%
18.00
9.78%
1.00
0.52%
1.00
0.52%
7.75
13.08%
7.75
13.08%
Aug-03
5.23
9.87%
5.23
9.87%
55.00
10.17%
55.00
10.17%
22.57
35.03%
22.57
35.03%
166.00
35.55%
120.85
25.88%
104.81
36.52%
77.48
27.00%
36.61
14.25%
36.61
14.25%
22.55
4.38%
22.55
4.38%
57.00
27.14%
57.00
27.14%
101.00
41.22%
101.00
41.22%
20.80
24.19%
11.02
12.81%
Sep-03
2.00
4.88%
2.00
4.88%
10.34
2.03%
10.34
2.03%
9.00
11.39%
9.00
11.39%
6.00
1.68%
6.00
1.68%
70.36
28.79%
70.36
28.79%
29.67
12.36%
29.67
12.36%
170.00
25.19%
170.00
25.19%
8.94
5.02%
8.94
5.02%
0.64
0.33%
0.64
0.33%
33.00
62.26%
33.00
62.26%
Oct-03
5.39
10.70%
5.39
10.70%
106.08
25.50%
106.08
25.50%
19.00
34.55%
19.00
34.55%
20.00
5.18%
34.90
9.04%
24.00
11.11%
4.80
2.22%
52.32
19.52%
52.32
19.52%
63.00
13.82%
63.00
13.82%
19.00
12.42%
19.00
12.42%
19.69
11.25%
19.69
11.25%
13.00
16.67%
3.25
4.17%
Nov-03
10.00
27.78%
10.00
27.78%
12.86
2.51%
12.86
2.51%
39.00
114.71%
39.00
114.71%
54.00
16.27%
54.00
16.27%
44.00
26.35%
44.00
26.35%
16.94
8.19%
16.94
8.19%
12.00
2.37%
12.00
2.37%
44.71
33.12%
44.71
33.12%
70.75
52.80%
70.75
52.80%
8.25
13.59%
8.25
13.59%
Baseline
Dec-03
1.83
3.91%
1.83
3.91%
12.74
2.50%
12.74
2.50%
24.00
54.55%
24.00
54.55%
128.00
50.79%
52.00
20.63%
13.17
6.46%
30.23
14.83%
18.16
8.69%
18.16
8.69%
12.00
2.23%
12.00
2.23%
16.75
10.30%
16.75
10.30%
11.00
5.73%
11.00
5.73%
2.00
3.13%
11.20
17.50%
Jan-04
11.00
31.43%
11.00
31.43%
97.39
24.11%
97.39
24.11%
4.88
7.61%
4.88
7.61%
154.00
67.84%
77.80
34.27%
100.00
85.47%
56.60
48.38%
22.33
10.48%
22.33
10.48%
8.04
1.49%
8.04
1.49%
35.09
25.24%
35.09
25.24%
45.40
29.87%
45.40
29.87%
33.00
94.29%
19.40
55.43%
Feb-04
10.00
29.41%
10.00
29.41%
23.29
4.42%
23.29
4.42%
0.17
0.27%
0.17
0.27%
20.00
5.70%
75.65
21.55%
73.00
54.48%
104.05
77.65%
30.66
15.41%
30.66
15.41%
32.29
6.55%
32.29
6.55%
5.73
3.33%
5.73
3.33%
9.04
5.14%
9.04
5.14%
17.00
20.24%
6.95
8.27%
Mar-04
5.00
12.50%
5.00
12.50%
180.97
55.86%
180.97
55.86%
43.00
148.28%
43.00
148.28%
109.00
45.80%
39.60
16.64%
101.00
96.19%
59.80
56.95%
21.53
10.55%
21.53
10.55%
194.00
58.08%
194.00
58.08%
52.54
46.49%
52.54
46.49%
43.18
30.19%
43.18
30.19%
8.28
14.34%
4.92
8.53%
Apr-04
3.00
6.52%
3.00
6.52%
33.78
7.49%
33.78
7.49%
22.00
27.16%
22.00
27.16%
8.00
2.42%
8.00
2.42%
39.00
26.17%
39.00
26.17%
22.02
10.96%
22.02
10.96%
252.08
56.41%
252.08
56.41%
19.23
13.64%
19.23
13.64%
2.34
1.32%
2.34
1.32%
14.00
30.43%
14.00
30.43%
May-04
4.98
10.84%
4.98
10.84%
17.22
3.62%
17.22
3.62%
0.20
0.33%
0.20
0.33%
0.00
0.00%
49.20
15.00%
54.00
43.90%
80.55
65.49%
22.78
9.45%
22.78
9.45%
238.00
72.78%
238.00
72.78%
37.42
18.71%
37.42
18.71%
64.39
26.50%
64.39
26.50%
11.00
14.67%
1.40
1.87%
Jun-04
1.00
2.44%
1.00
2.44%
110.38
31.63%
110.38
31.63%
7.00
14.89%
7.00
14.89%
4.00
1.27%
4.00
1.27%
3.00
1.54%
3.00
1.54%
31.37
17.05%
31.37
17.05%
61.00
13.47%
61.00
13.47%
7.32
4.69%
7.32
4.69%
51.51
23.10%
51.51
23.10%
4.00
5.97%
4.00
5.97%
Jul-04
4.00
10.81%
4.00
10.81%
53.70
13.29%
53.70
13.29%
2.55
4.15%
2.55
4.15%
51.00
19.39%
51.00
19.39%
32.00
25.00%
32.00
25.00%
5.50
2.52%
5.50
2.52%
78.42
13.54%
78.42
13.54%
16.14
12.32%
16.14
12.32%
6.59
3.97%
6.59
3.97%
2.17
3.49%
2.17
3.49%
Aug-04
13.00
44.83%
13.00
44.83%
36.96
8.71%
36.96
8.71%
2.00
2.63%
2.00
2.63%
22.00
7.21%
20.45
6.70%
51.00
50.50%
73.80
73.07%
43.20
24.69%
43.20
24.69%
120.87
35.03%
120.87
35.03%
44.72
39.57%
44.72
39.57%
13.67
7.90%
13.67
7.90%
10.00
18.87%
19.45
36.70%
Sep-04
7.00
14.29%
7.00
14.29%
206.89
89.18%
206.89
89.18%
3.27
5.42%
3.27
5.42%
102.20
54.65%
102.20
54.65%
35.00
27.78%
35.00
27.78%
21.64
9.29%
21.64
9.29%
46.29
11.10%
46.29
11.10%
10.22
6.95%
10.22
6.95%
6.00
3.19%
6.00
3.19%
15.00
19.23%
15.00
19.23%
Oct-04
6.00
17.14%
6.00
17.14%
78.91
22.35%
78.91
22.35%
2.00
3.57%
2.00
3.57%
88.96
45.62%
88.96
45.62%
87.00
129.85%
87.00
129.85%
42.69
25.11%
42.69
25.11%
38.51
8.60%
38.51
8.60%
17.71
13.18%
17.71
13.18%
25.89
15.93%
25.89
15.93%
35.00
112.90%
35.00
112.90%
Nov-04
14.00
26.92%
14.00
26.92%
6.41
1.51%
6.41
1.51%
15.00
19.74%
15.00
19.74%
59.17
25.84%
102.39
44.71%
55.00
62.50%
76.45
86.88%
2.85
1.37%
2.85
1.37%
22.15
5.08%
22.15
5.08%
19.28
15.42%
19.28
15.42%
63.28
51.87%
63.28
51.87%
12.73
22.63%
23.08
41.03%
Dec-04
5.14
11.38%
5.14
11.38%
69.73
21.72%
69.73
21.72%
15.00
34.88%
15.00
34.88%
44.93
20.15%
8.65
3.88%
82.00
124.24%
52.40
79.39%
4.33
2.10%
4.33
2.10%
56.92
14.48%
56.92
14.48%
77.85
116.20%
77.85
116.20%
52.44
39.32%
52.44
39.32%
26.00
56.52%
11.60
25.22%
Jan-05
7.00
22.58%
7.00
22.58%
104.18
37.34%
104.18
37.34%
17.00
42.50%
17.00
42.50%
74.35
41.53%
23.68
13.23%
23.97
21.99%
2.63
2.41%
12.58
6.62%
12.58
6.62%
176.52
64.66%
176.52
64.66%
67.76
90.35%
67.76
90.35%
9.14
5.31%
9.14
5.31%
28.00
71.79%
14.60
37.44%
Feb-05
2.03
4.83%
2.03
4.83%
35.65
8.35%
35.65
8.35%
0.55
0.90%
0.55
0.90%
16.48
7.10%
53.75
23.17%
6.97
5.96%
25.57
21.85%
8.35
4.28%
8.35
4.28%
37.18
7.68%
37.18
7.68%
32.21
30.10%
32.21
30.10%
44.31
35.45%
44.31
35.45%
18.00
34.62%
28.50
54.81%
Mar-05
16.00
69.57%
16.00
69.57%
4.28
1.15%
4.28
1.15%
7.71
12.29%
7.71
12.29%
101.38
71.40%
52.71
37.12%
43.38
62.87%
20.90
30.29%
29.79
12.73%
29.79
12.73%
152.05
53.54%
152.05
53.54%
35.77
40.19%
35.77
40.19%
70.12
76.22%
70.12
76.22%
24.00
54.55%
10.40
23.64%
Apr-05
0.57
1.48%
0.57
1.48%
53.38
12.99%
53.38
12.99%
9.96
15.58%
9.96
15.58%
53.51
30.23%
53.51
30.23%
1.30
1.15%
1.30
1.15%
52.63
20.72%
52.63
20.72%
137.44
51.67%
137.44
51.67%
15.81
15.97%
15.81
15.97%
84.10
105.12%
84.10
105.12%
21.00
44.68%
21.00
44.68%
May-05
5.00
14.71%
5.00
14.71%
7.50
2.06%
7.50
2.06%
15.00
20.55%
15.00
20.55%
50.20
17.86%
15.57
5.54%
31.24
21.69%
14.32
9.95%
41.85
17.29%
41.85
17.29%
114.55
37.56%
114.55
37.56%
4.25
3.90%
4.25
3.90%
12.72
7.53%
12.72
7.53%
11.00
18.97%
21.35
36.81%
Jun-05
12.00
48.00%
12.00
48.00%
79.80
27.33%
79.80
27.33%
6.37
9.75%
6.37
9.75%
76.04
55.51%
76.04
55.51%
53.01
103.94%
53.01
103.94%
38.00
16.45%
38.00
16.45%
29.98
8.27%
29.98
8.27%
9.60
8.14%
9.60
8.14%
26.42
22.58%
26.42
22.58%
4.00
6.25%
4.00
6.25%
Averages
226
Holdout
MAE
7.64
Holdout
MAPE
23.88%

Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAPE
7.64
61.45
20.50%
8.03
14.33%
61.68
33.04%
41.82
53.12%
25.28
11.93%
84.24
25.94%
29.28
32.69%
34.56
31.20%
17.24
38.71%
37.12 28.53%
23.88%
61.45
20.50%
8.03
14.33%
54.08
28.31%
39.53
49.30%
25.28
11.93%
84.24
25.94%
29.28
32.69%
34.56
31.20%
17.18
36.85%
36.13
27.49%
Nave 1
SKU-60-001
SKU-60-001 EM
SKU-60-002
SKU-60-002 EM
SKU-60-003
SKU-60-003 EM
SKU-60-004
SKU-60-004 EM
SKU-60-005
SKU-60-005 EM
SKU-60-006
SKU-60-006 EM
SKU-60-007
SKU-60-007 EM
SKU-60-008
SKU-60-008 EM
SKU-60-009
SKU-60-009 EM
SKU-60-010
SKU-60-010 EM
t+3
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Percentage
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Error
Jul-03
17.00
30.91%
17.00
30.91%
42.00
7.95%
42.00
7.95%
2.00
2.20%
2.00
2.20%
54.00
14.29%
54.00
14.29%
130.59
49.10%
130.59
49.10%
27.95
11.79%
27.95
11.79%
16.00
2.80%
16.00
2.80%
2.00
1.09%
2.00
1.09%
11.00
5.73%
11.00
5.73%
0.25
0.42%
0.25
0.42%
Aug-03
7.65
14.43%
0.84
1.59%
20.00
3.70%
104.15
19.25%
3.43
5.32%
5.72
8.88%
69.00
14.78%
9.30
1.99%
66.00
23.00%
32.85
11.45%
32.00
12.45%
1.75
0.68%
17.81
3.46%
56.80
11.02%
44.00
20.95%
19.10
9.10%
52.00
21.22%
23.05
9.41%
19.00
22.09%
8.95
10.41%
Sep-03
6.77
16.51%
6.77
16.51%
24.25
4.75%
24.25
4.75%
8.00
10.13%
8.00
10.13%
56.00
15.69%
56.00
15.69%
62.17
25.44%
62.17
25.44%
19.62
8.18%
19.62
8.18%
137.18
20.32%
137.18
20.32%
24.94
14.02%
24.94
14.02%
52.00
26.53%
52.00
26.53%
12.20
23.02%
12.20
23.02%
Oct-03
4.61
9.14%
12.86
25.51%
112.00
26.92%
191.20
45.96%
36.00
65.45%
49.65
90.27%
8.00
2.07%
48.70
12.62%
50.00
23.15%
89.90
41.62%
31.00
11.57%
4.55
1.70%
116.00
25.44%
201.80
44.25%
31.00
20.26%
58.60
38.30%
17.00
9.71%
45.80
26.17%
18.75
24.04%
9.86
12.65%
Nov-03
17.00
47.22%
17.00
47.22%
28.00
5.46%
28.00
5.46%
30.43
89.50%
30.43
89.50%
135.00
40.66%
135.00
40.66%
120.00
71.86%
120.00
71.86%
50.00
24.15%
50.00
24.15%
9.28
1.83%
9.28
1.83%
75.00
55.56%
75.00
55.56%
111.00
82.84%
111.00
82.84%
25.25
41.57%
25.25
41.57%
Dec-03
5.83
12.45%
14.03
29.96%
0.25
0.05%
101.80
19.96%
35.00
79.55%
19.20
43.64%
105.00
41.67%
33.60
13.33%
40.53
19.88%
8.34
4.09%
31.01
14.84%
16.99
8.13%
138.00
25.70%
3.00
0.56%
15.33
9.43%
20.26
12.46%
4.00
2.08%
35.20
18.33%
11.00
17.19%
21.60
33.75%
Jan-04
15.39
43.98%
5.32
15.19%
12.00
2.97%
71.20
17.62%
9.12
14.22%
20.12
31.38%
159.00
70.04%
81.80
36.04%
99.00
84.62%
55.80
47.69%
55.00
25.82%
1.40
0.66%
82.04
15.25%
173.24
32.20%
14.00
10.07%
16.60
11.94%
23.00
15.13%
12.00
7.89%
43.00
122.86%
27.40
78.29%
Feb-04
2.00
5.88%
7.40
21.76%
14.00
2.66%
62.95
11.94%
28.17
45.31%
23.07
37.10%
19.00
5.41%
30.80
8.77%
33.00
24.63%
58.05
43.32%
8.00
4.02%
39.05
19.62%
13.29
2.70%
89.19
18.10%
37.00
21.51%
16.75
9.74%
41.68
23.73%
21.58
12.29%
23.25
27.68%
14.14
16.84%
Mar-04
6.83
17.08%
2.54
6.34%
186.00
57.41%
84.00
25.93%
15.00
51.72%
6.20
21.38%
14.00
5.88%
36.40
15.29%
98.83
94.12%
58.06
55.30%
5.00
2.45%
36.80
18.04%
203.00
60.78%
95.60
28.62%
49.61
43.90%
17.09
15.12%
49.00
34.27%
10.60
7.41%
6.28
10.88%
6.52
11.30%
Apr-04
11.00
23.91%
11.00
23.91%
47.00
10.42%
47.00
10.42%
16.88
20.84%
16.88
20.84%
104.00
31.42%
104.00
31.42%
32.00
21.48%
32.00
21.48%
12.00
5.97%
12.00
5.97%
91.12
20.39%
91.12
20.39%
2.00
1.42%
2.00
1.42%
25.00
14.12%
25.00
14.12%
11.00
23.91%
11.00
23.91%
May-04
11.98
26.06%
6.88
14.97%
51.00
10.71%
130.05
27.32%
2.36
3.95%
11.69
19.55%
23.00
7.01%
75.65
23.06%
11.00
8.94%
31.10
25.28%
42.00
17.43%
12.15
5.04%
165.71
50.68%
239.62
73.28%
28.00
14.00%
2.20
1.10%
67.32
27.70%
40.96
16.86%
9.00
12.00%
21.60
28.80%
Jun-04
1.00
2.44%
1.00
2.44%
25.00
7.16%
25.00
7.16%
18.00
38.30%
18.00
38.30%
76.00
24.20%
76.00
24.20%
90.00
46.15%
90.00
46.15%
20.00
10.87%
20.00
10.87%
119.00
26.27%
119.00
26.27%
43.00
27.56%
43.00
27.56%
80.00
35.87%
80.00
35.87%
9.28
13.85%
9.28
13.85%
Jul-04
9.00
24.32%
9.00
24.32%
47.00
11.63%
47.00
11.63%
19.45
31.59%
19.45
31.59%
68.00
25.86%
68.00
25.86%
21.00
16.41%
21.00
16.41%
17.00
7.80%
17.00
7.80%
132.08
22.81%
132.08
22.81%
10.00
7.63%
10.00
7.63%
11.00
6.63%
11.00
6.63%
16.17
26.01%
16.17
26.01%
Aug-04
16.98
58.56%
23.88
82.35%
51.60
12.16%
123.00
28.98%
16.20
21.31%
7.23
9.51%
23.00
7.54%
72.20
23.67%
22.00
21.78%
40.45
40.05%
66.00
37.71%
102.15
58.37%
18.00
5.22%
31.05
9.00%
87.00
76.99%
117.00
103.54%
70.00
40.46%
106.45
61.53%
22.00
41.51%
33.25
62.74%
Sep-04
8.00
16.33%
8.00
16.33%
117.00
50.43%
117.00
50.43%
13.27
22.01%
13.27
22.01%
127.00
67.91%
127.00
67.91%
69.00
54.76%
69.00
54.76%
49.00
21.03%
49.00
21.03%
36.00
8.63%
36.00
8.63%
8.85
6.01%
8.85
6.01%
35.07
18.66%
35.07
18.66%
11.00
14.10%
11.00
14.10%
Oct-04
2.00
5.71%
2.00
5.71%
51.00
14.45%
51.00
14.45%
5.55
9.92%
5.55
9.92%
68.00
34.87%
68.00
34.87%
61.00
91.04%
61.00
91.04%
48.00
28.24%
48.00
28.24%
131.08
29.26%
131.08
29.26%
3.38
2.52%
3.38
2.52%
3.54
2.18%
3.54
2.18%
31.17
100.54%
31.17
100.54%
Nov-04
23.00
44.23%
18.65
35.87%
0.40
0.09%
64.06
15.11%
0.00
0.00%
11.40
15.00%
76.00
33.19%
121.75
53.17%
13.00
14.77%
28.15
31.99%
33.00
15.87%
6.75
3.25%
91.00
20.87%
39.25
9.00%
12.00
9.60%
4.95
3.96%
51.00
41.80%
76.95
63.07%
3.27
5.80%
4.68
8.33%
Dec-04
3.86
8.56%
5.94
13.15%
89.00
27.73%
135.40
42.18%
17.27
40.16%
5.21
12.13%
36.00
16.14%
73.40
32.91%
60.00
90.91%
34.80
52.73%
26.61
12.89%
19.99
9.68%
24.00
6.11%
59.40
15.11%
80.15
119.63%
50.72
75.70%
54.57
40.92%
16.98
12.73%
32.00
69.57%
16.40
35.65%
Jan-05
4.00
12.90%
3.00
9.68%
74.00
26.52%
3.40
1.22%
16.00
40.00%
4.80
12.00%
16.00
8.94%
23.00
12.85%
42.00
38.53%
55.40
50.83%
20.00
10.53%
54.00
28.42%
174.92
64.07%
85.34
31.26%
59.38
79.18%
32.51
43.34%
9.54
5.54%
42.03
24.44%
8.00
20.51%
14.20
36.41%
Feb-05
9.97
23.72%
17.77
42.28%
3.00
0.70%
60.60
14.19%
14.45
23.47%
25.85
42.00%
3.00
1.29%
31.35
13.51%
29.00
24.79%
15.80
13.50%
12.69
6.50%
43.89
22.47%
48.00
9.92%
17.40
3.60%
18.00
16.82%
36.75
34.35%
3.00
2.40%
15.30
12.24%
4.27
8.20%
12.71
24.43%
Mar-05
22.14
96.24%
13.11
57.00%
52.00
13.94%
116.20
31.15%
19.71
31.43%
28.31
45.14%
81.00
57.04%
36.40
25.63%
3.00
4.35%
16.20
23.48%
27.61
11.80%
68.89
29.44%
109.00
38.38%
30.40
10.70%
22.00
24.72%
35.40
39.78%
41.37
44.96%
14.69
15.97%
2.00
4.55%
7.20
16.36%
Apr-05
7.57
19.62%
7.57
19.62%
132.00
32.12%
132.00
32.12%
23.96
37.46%
23.96
37.46%
2.00
1.13%
2.00
1.13%
4.00
3.54%
4.00
3.54%
64.00
25.20%
64.00
25.20%
7.00
2.63%
7.00
2.63%
24.00
24.24%
24.00
24.24%
92.00
115.00%
92.00
115.00%
8.00
17.02%
8.00
17.02%
May-05
8.03
23.61%
14.33
42.16%
63.00
17.31%
127.05
34.90%
11.45
15.68%
2.22
3.04%
49.00
17.44%
14.20
5.05%
27.00
18.75%
9.45
6.56%
46.69
19.29%
17.39
7.19%
179.00
58.69%
251.60
82.49%
2.00
1.83%
14.05
12.89%
44.00
26.04%
25.25
14.94%
6.00
10.34%
1.80
3.10%
Jun-05
2.00
8.00%
2.00
8.00%
81.00
27.74%
81.00
27.74%
2.66
4.07%
2.66
4.07%
5.00
3.65%
5.00
3.65%
18.00
35.29%
18.00
35.29%
3.00
1.30%
3.00
1.30%
78.46
21.65%
78.46
21.65%
29.00
24.58%
29.00
24.58%
25.00
21.37%
25.00
21.37%
20.00
31.25%
20.00
31.25%
Averages
227
Baseline
Fitting
Holdout
MAE
MAE
9.33
9.32
Holdout
MAPE
24.66%
64.24
55.10
15.62%
20.00
15.18
29.32%
116.76
57.33
22.84%
47.78
50.09
37.80%
37.79
31.13
14.49%
73.23
89.04
22.66%
35.93
30.07
26.40%
29.18
40.54
27.70%
17.61
14.67
28.70%
45.18
39.25
25.02%

Fitting
Holdout
Holdout
MAE
MAE
MAPE
9.74
9.50
24.70%
95.35
82.05
21.16%
22.25
15.04
27.38%
108.73
57.65
22.40%
48.59
47.59
35.96%
43.18
30.68
14.88%
75.89
88.79
21.91%
35.66
27.67
24.00%
31.30
38.85
26.34%
16.62
14.36
27.95%
48.73
41.22
24.67%
Appendix F Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error

57B
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Summer 2007, Issue 7
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SAPS UNIVARIATE SALES

Peter Maurice Catt

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements

Supervisors: Dr Robert Barbour, UNITEC

Wherever this thesis draws on the work of others,

The accuracy of sales forecasts is a major determinant of inventory costs and

TRADEMARKS AND SERVICE MARKS

Firstly, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Robert

List of Tables ................................................................................................................... 7

List of Figures ................................................................................................................. 8

1.0 INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH AIMS ................................................................. 9

1.1 The Companys Supply Chain ............................................................................... 10

1.2 Theoretical Basis and Importance of the Study ..................................................... 12

1.3 Relevance of SAP to the Case Study .................................................................... 13

1.4 Limitations .............................................................................................................. 15

1.5 Research Aims....................................................................................................... 16

1.6 Research Questions .............................................................................................. 17

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................ 18

2.1 Information and Communication Technology enabled Supply Chain Management

2.2 Economic Impact of Forecasts............................................................................... 24

2.3 Forecasting Techniques ........................................................................................ 28

2.4 Forecast Evaluation ............................................................................................... 44

2.5 Empirical Forecasting Studies ............................................................................... 50

2.6 SAP Demand Forecasting Functionality .............................................................. 56

2.7 SAP Demand Forecasting Research ................................................................... 71

2.8 Conclusion of Literature Review ............................................................................ 73

3.1 Margin Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error .............................................. 74

3.2 Inventory Cost ........................................................................................................ 76

3.3 Safety Stock Calculation ........................................................................................ 77

3.4 Cost of Forecast Error............................................................................................ 79

3.5 Research Questions and Hypotheses ................................................................... 82

3.6 Research Method................................................................................................... 85

4.0 DATA COLLECTION ................................................................................................ 88

4.1 Sampling ................................................................................................................ 90

4.2 Event Management Adjustment ............................................................................. 96

5.0 RESULTS ................................................................................................................. 97

5.1 SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters ............................................ 102

5.3 Best-fitting Model ................................................................................................. 108

6.0 ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................. 111

6.1 SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters ............................................ 113

6.3 Best-fitting Model ................................................................................................. 117

6.4 Forecast Error Measures ..................................................................................... 124

7.0 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................... 128

7.1 SAP Default versus Fitted Smoothing Parameters ............................................ 128

7.3 Best-fitting Model ................................................................................................. 135

7.4 Forecast Error Measures ..................................................................................... 139

7.5 Return on Investment via Improvements in Sales Forecasting............................ 141

8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH ........... 145

8.1 Implications of Findings ....................................................................................... 145

8.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................... 149

8.3 Contributions to Knowledge ................................................................................. 154

8.4 Directions for Further Research ........................................................................... 156

9.0 REFERENCES........................................................................................................ 158

10. APPENDICES ......................................................................................................... 162

Appendix A Data Sets ............................................................................................. 162

Appendix C Model Fitting Parameters .................................................................... 178

Appendix D Summary Forecast Error Measures .................................................... 184

Appendix E Detailed Forecast Error Tables............................................................ 191

Appendix F Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error .................................................. 228

Table 1. Summary of Forecast Models and Time-Series Characteristics ....................... 36

1.0 INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH AIMS

This Chapter provides an executive summary of the research. A selective

1.1 The Companys Supply Chain