The Economic Impact TRANSFORMATION Bull Street PROPERTY

Greater Columbia Chamber of Commerce

Prepared for the

Of the Of the

Prepared by

Columbia, SC

June 2013

The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

Table of Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Executive Summary. ................................................................... Page 2 Introduction. .............................................................................. Page 6 Overview of the Bull Street Project.............................................. Page 8 Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project................................. Page 9 A Potential Catalyst for Bull Street Minor League Baseball. .....Page 16 Summary.................................................................................. Page 18 Endnotes................................................................................... Page 20 Miley & Associates......................................................................Page 21 General Limiting Conditions..................................................... Page 22

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The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

Executive Summary

Introduction
Project Description The Hughes Development Plan
The most recent master plan for the proposed development of the Bull Street property has been developed for Hughes Development by Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company (DPZ) and Copper Carry, a nationally recognized architectural planning firm with offices in Atlanta, G.A., Washington, D.C. and New York, N.Y. The preliminary Hughes plan includes substantial re-use of many of the historic structures on the property along with 3,558 residential dwelling units, including apartment/ condominium units, townhomes and single-family homes of a variety of sizes and levels of affordability. In addition, the plan incorporates approximately 1.7 million square feet of commercial and office areas and a 70-room hotel. The plan also includes churches locations; recreational spaces; hiking and biking trails; preserved and open spaces, community facilities; and major off-site roadway improvements.

his report evaluates the economic impacts of the development of the Bull Street property in Columbia, S.C. on the Columbia metropolitan economy. This analysis is intended to provide the Greater Columbia Chamber of Commerce and local governments an estimate of the level of economic activity and jobs that will result from the development of the Bull Street property. These impacts are estimated to occur within the multi-county Columbia metropolitan area during the construction of the Bull Street property as well as the ongoing permanent economic impacts of the residential and commercial and recreational activity that is anticipated once the project is completed.

The preliminary Hughes plan includes substantial re-use of many of the historic structures on the property along with 3,558 residential dwelling units, including apartment/ condominium units, townhomes and single-family homes of a variety of sizes and levels of affordability.

Background
The potential development of the Bull Street property has been an ongoing topic of interest of the City of Columbia for many years. The property was once home to the South Carolina Department of Mental Health (SCDMH) and is the largest single, unused tract of land in the City. The property covers approximately 180 acres The potential build-out plan of the property has evolved over the last eight years and in 2010, the owner of the property, the SCDMH, signed a contract for sale to Hughes Development of Greenville, S.C.

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The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

Executive Summary (continued)

Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project

activity in the region -- for a total impact of $1.2 billion per year. The development activity will generate labor income while producing this total output. The direct labor income is estimated to be $415 million. Adding the indirect and induced effects of this direct activity, the project would generate another $166 million in labor income for a total labor income impact of $581 million per year. Finally, the development of Bull Street would generate a substantial number of jobs in the Columbia area. It is estimated to directly create and support 6,142 jobs. The activity supports another 3,900 jobs indirectly for a total employment impact on the region of 10,040 jobs. These jobs are relatively high wage jobs, averaging well above $59,000 a year per employee. Thus, at the projects build-out, it is estimated that there will be an annual income impact of almost $1.2 billion.

he development of the Bull Street property will have positive impacts on the greater Columbia metropolitan economy in at least four phases. Many of the impacts would occur during the construction of the residential, commercial and other components of the development. Once the residential and commercial construction is completed, the permanent residents living and working in the development would have additional impacts on an ongoing basis on the local economy. The four phases are listed below: Construction of the Residential/ Office/Retail buildings (annual for 20 years) One time construction of Hotel and Civic facilities Infrastructure construction (ongoing for 20 years) Permanent Employment of businesses in Bull Street (ongoing)

Annual Economic Impacts of the Development of Bull Street Total Economic Impacts

Ta b l e

1A

Impact Type Employment Labor Income Output Direct Effect 6,754 $414,783,468 $713,464,407 Indirect Effect 1,519 $63,181,237 $169,995,222 Induced Effect 2,746 $103,172,605 $325,484,434 Total Effect 11,020 $581,137,308 $1,208,944,062

When all of these impacts are combined, the economic impacts of the development of Bull Street are impressive. As seen in Table 1A, the total impacts of Bull Street will generate tremendous economic activity in the Columbia area. As seen in Table 1A, the development of Bull Street will generate more than $714 million of direct economic activity. The indirect and induced impacts of the project would add another $495 million in economic

The development of Bull Street will generate more than $714 million of direct economic activity. The indirect and induced impacts of the project would add another $495 million in economic activity in the region -- for a total impact of $1.2 billion per year.

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Executive Summary (continued)

Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project (continued) Table 2 A
Local Property Taxes in Richland County
The development of the Bull Street property will also generate substantial local property taxes. At build-out, the project is estimated to generate almost $20 million in local property taxes per year. These would be generated for the various local governments as indicated in Table 2A. As seen in Table 2A, the property taxes for the school district would be substantial, increasing to more than $13 million a year. The City taxes would grow to about $4.4 million a year while County taxes would increase to about $2.6 million a year at the projects completion.

Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (At Buildout)

Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20
Estimated Assessed Value City Incremental Tax Revenues County Incremental Tax Revenues County Bond Incremental Tax Revenues School Incremental Tax Revenues School Bond Incremental Tax Revenues Total Incremental Tax Revenue $19,451,306 $32,561,758 $45,040,739 $59,764,629 $1,431,130 $2,395,731 $717,753 $1,201,529 $131,296 $219,792 $3,453,093 $5,780,526 $773,189 $1,294,330 $3,313,872 $1,662,003 $304,025 $1,790,369 $4,397,183 $2,205,315 $403,411 $2,375,644

$7,995,857 $10,609,716

$6,506,462 $10,891,908 $15,066,127 $19,991,269

The development of the Bull Street property will also generate substantial local property taxes. At build-out, the project is estimated to generate almost $20 million in local property taxes per year.

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Executive Summary (continued)

Summary
s outlined in this analysis, the development of the Bull Street property clearly will have a tremendous impact on the greater Columbia metropolitan economy. The benefits outlined here will be generated from the construction phases, and the permanent on-going phase of the development project. If the property is developed as outlined in the Hughes Development plan and successfully implemented within the 20-year build-out, the impacts as outlined in this analysis can be reasonably expected to be realized in the greater metropolitan area of Columbia. As described in this report, the total economic impacts of the development of Bull Street would generate more than $1.2 billion of economic activity per year, $581 million in labor income and more than 11,000 new jobs when completed. And the project will generate substantial property taxes in the region. At build-out, Bull Street is estimated to generate almost $20 million a year in property taxes for the local governments and school district. An additional benefit from the proposed development of the Bull Street project is that many of the additional costs to the City, Richland County and Richland One School District that result from new residential development would most likely be relatively modest. Since the project is located in a well-established area within the City, a great deal of the offsite infrastructure -- such as regional water and sewer capacity, connecting traffic arteries and school capacity -- already exists to serve the area. Finally, Columbia could further enhance and speed up these impacts occurring by including a minor league baseball park in the development plan. Cities such as Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and Greenville are examples of cities in South Carolina where minor league baseball is thriving and stimulating additional development. Durham, N.C. and Ft Wayne, I.N. are two additional cities that have benefited from minor league parks. Columbia is ripe for minor league baseball and may even be at a competitive disadvantage with other South Carolina cities in terms of attractive places to live since it does not have a minor league team. According to the Central SC Alliance, more than 1.3 million people live within a 50-mile radius of Columbia. Columbia is the largest metropolitan area east of the Mississippi River that does not have a minor league baseball franchise.

Columbia is ripe for minor league baseball and may even be at a competitive disadvantage with other South Carolina cities in terms of attractive places to live since it does not have a minor league team... Columbia is the largest metropolitan area east of the Mississippi River that does not have a minor league baseball franchise.

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The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

1. Introduction
result from the development of the Bull Street property. These impacts are estimated to occur within the multi-county Columbia metropolitan area during the construction of the Bull Street property as well as the ongoing permanent economic impacts of the residential and commercial and recreational activity that is anticipated once the project is completed.

his report evaluates the economic impacts of the development of the Bull Street property in Columbia, S.C., on the Columbia metropolitan economy. This analysis is intended to provide the Greater Columbia Chamber of Commerce and local governments an estimate of the level of economic activity and jobs that will

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The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

1. Introduction (continued)

The DPZ plan incorporated a mixed-use development with approximately 1,300 dwelling units, more than 500,000 square feet of commercial/office space and substantial re-use of many of the historic structures on the property.

Background
The potential development of the Bull Street property has been an ongoing topic of interest of the City of Columbia for many years. The property was once home to the South Carolina Department of Mental Health (SCDMH) and is the largest single, unused tract of land in the City. The property covers approximately 180 acres. In January of 2005, the Central Carolina Community Foundation (CCCF) retained the planning firm, Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company (DPZ) to undertake an extensive community-based planning effort and develop a conceptual master plan for the Bull Street property. The DPZ plan incorporated a mixed-use development with approximately 1,300 dwelling units, more than 500,000 square feet of commercial/office space and substantial re-use of many of the historic structures on the property. The potential build-out plan of the property has evolved over the last eight years and in 2010, the owner of the property, the SCDMH, signed a contract for sale to Hughes Development of Greenville, S.C. Hughes is a well-known developer and is best known in South Carolina for the successful development of the downtown Greenville area. The sale has not been finalized and the city, DMH and Hughes are still in negotiations. The impacts outlined in this study reflect the mixed-use project planned by Hughes Development. The Hughes design is similar but not exactly the same as the original DPZ plan, which was later revised by DPZ and others to reflect changed market conditions and opportunities. The details of the Hughes plan are outlined in the following section.
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2. Overview of the Bull Street Project

Project Description The Hughes Development Plan

he most recent master plan for the proposed development of the Bull Street property has been developed for Hughes Development by Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company (DPZ) and Copper Carry, a nationally recognized architectural planning firm with offices in Atlanta, G.A., Washington, D.C. and New York, N.Y. The impact analysis in this report assumes the pricing, number of dwelling units, commercial and office facilities, build-out schedule and components as detailed in that plan as closely as possible. to complete. As the project nears start-up, the exact number, pricing and timing of this to preliminary build-out may vary. The initial pace will most likely be faster, but using the average is a conservative methodology. Early development of the baseball park would likely speed up other development activities within the Bull Street site.

The preliminary Hughes plan also includes substantial re-use of many of the historic structures on the property along with 3,558 residential dwelling units, including apartment/ condominium units, townhomes and single-family homes of a variety of sizes and levels of affordability. In addition, the plan incorporates approximately 1.7 million square feet of commercial and office areas and a 70-room hotel. The plan also includes churches locations; recreational spaces; hiking and biking trails; preserved and open spaces, community facilities; and major off-site roadway improvements. Table 1 outlines the major components of the mixed-use land uses. It is estimated that there will be an average of 150 to 200 dwelling units built on the campus per year. The plan assumes build-out will take about 20 years

Ta b l e

Development Plan Mix

Planned Land Use Planned Square Footage Rental Residential 3,000,000 Owner-Occupied Residential 549,600 Town Home Residential 250,000 Hotel 70,000 Retail 579,380 Civic 70,000 Office 500,000 Medical Office 300,000 Babcock Building 200,000 Total 5,518,980

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3. Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project

The IMPLAN input-output model mathematically derives the indirect and induced effects. The resulting multipliers describe the change in output for every regional industry caused by a one-dollar change in final demand for any given industry. The notion of a multiplier rests upon the difference between the initial effect of a change in final demand and the total effects of that change. Total effects are the direct effects plus indirect effects, plus induced effects. Direct effects are the production changes associated with initial final demand changes. Indirect effects are production changes in backward-linked industries caused by the changing input needs of directly affected industries. Induced effects result from the household expenditures from the directly or indirectly generated labor income. The multipliers used in this analysis estimate three components of total change within the local area: Direct effects represent the initial change in the output of an industry. Indirect effects are changes in inter-industry transactions as supplying industries respond to increased demands from the directly affected industries. Induced effects reflect changes in local spending that result from income changes in the directly and indirectly affected industry sectors. This cycle of spending continues until leakages from the region (spending on goods and services outside the area) stop the cycle. Due to these multiplier effects, the initial, direct investment results in indirect and induced impacts of many more dollars. In essence, the multipliers estimated by this methodology represent the consecutive rounds of buying and selling that ripple through an economy. To produce one dollar of new product, employees must be hired and paid. The wages paid to these workers will then be spent on goods and services, such as food, gasoline, clothes, housing, etc. within the region and outside the region. As these dollars are spent, they become income to the recipient, and the spending continues over and over again. The induced effect is the cumulative amount of spending.

he development of the Bull Street property will have positive impacts on the greater Columbia metropolitan economy in at least four phases. Many of the impacts would occur during the construction of the residential, commercial and ballpark properties. Once the residential and commercial construction is completed, the permanent residents living and working in the development would have additional impacts on an ongoing basis on the local economy. The four phases are listed below: Construction of the Residential/ Office/Retail buildings (annual for 20 years) One time construction of Hotel and Civic facilities Infrastructure construction (ongoing for 20 years) Permanent Employment of businesses in Bull Street (ongoing)

The analysis in this report utilizes impact models generated by the IMPLAN modeling system. IMPLAN is a nationally recognized system of local economic models that are specifically designed to represent a state economy such as the South Carolina economy.1 The IMPLAN models are modifications of the national input-output models developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce. The IMPLAN models incorporate the most recent data available and are 2011 unless otherwise noted.

The economic activity of the directly impacted industry also requires intermediate inputs to be purchased such as electricity, raw materials, transportation services, labor etc. These expenditures become income to the recipient and pay for the purchases of raw materials, labor, etc. They, in turn, are then spent over and over again in the economy. Purchases made from outside the region are considered leakages from the economy. The consecutive rounds of selling goods and services continue until these leakages from the region end the cycle. The indirect effect is the cumulative amount of such spending.

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The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

3. Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project

A Construction of the Residential/Office Buildings
One of the largest and most obvious economic impacts will result from the relatively large scale construction projects that will occur as the more than 5.5 million square feet of mixed use residential and commercial buildings are constructed. In smaller projects, construction impacts are often considered to be temporary. However, given the 20-year build out scenario planned for the Bull Street property, these construction impacts can be considered more permanent. To more accurately estimate these impacts, an average annual construction impact is estimated here. As seen in Table 2, the build-out of Bull Street will generate tremendous economic activity on an annual basis in the Columbia area. The annual impacts of the construction are estimated to generate direct output of more than $86 million. As with any economic activity, the direct activity of this construction activity has indirect and induced impacts. Together, as seen in Table 2, the indirect and induced impacts of the construction of residential and office space would add another $58 million in economic activity in the region for a total impact of $144.5 million. The construction activity will generate substantial labor income while producing this total output. The direct labor income of the construction activity is estimated to be $36.1 million a year. Adding the indirect and induced effects of this direct activity, the construction activity would generate another $19.6 million in labor income per year for a total labor income impact of $55.8 million a year. Finally, this construction activity is a substantial job generator in the area. The construction activity is estimated to directly create and support more than 760 jobs a year. This, in turn, supports another 477 jobs indirectly for a total employment impact on the region of 1,236 jobs. These direct jobs are relatively high wage jobs, averaging well above $47,000 a year per employee.

(continued)

The build-out of Bull Street will generate tremendous economic activity on an annual basis in the Columbia area. The annual impacts of the construction are estimated to generate direct output of more than $86 million.

Annual Economic Impacts of the Development of Bull Street Construction of Residential and Office buildings

Table

Impact Type Employment Labor Income Output Direct Effect 760 $36,131,369 $86,295,956 Indirect Effect 212 $9,759,995 $26,873,758 Induced Effect 265 $9,941,160 $31,366,262 Total Effect 1,236 $55,832,524 $144,535,976

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3. Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project

B Hotel and Civic Facilities
As seen in Table 3, the construction of the hotel and civic facilities will also generate economic activity on a onetime basis in the Columbia area. These impacts will be temporary and last as long as the construction activity occurs. The impact of the construction of the hotel and civic facilities is estimated to generate direct output of more than $18 million. The direct activity of this construction activity has indirect and induced impacts. Together, as seen in Table 3, the indirect and induced impacts of the construction of the hotel and civic facilities would add another $12.2 million in economic activity in the region for a total impact of $30.5 million. The construction activity will generate labor income while producing this total output. The direct labor income of the construction activity is estimated to be $8.3 million a year. Adding the indirect and induced effects of this direct activity, the construction activity would generate another $4.2 million in labor income a year for a total labor income impact of $12.5 million. Finally, this construction activity is also job generator in the area. The construction activity is estimated to directly create and support 174 jobs. The activity supports another 98 jobs indirectly for a total employment impact on the region of 272 jobs. These direct jobs are relatively high wage jobs, averaging well above $48,000 a year per employee.

(continued)

Annual Economic Impacts of the Development of Bull Street HotelandCivicConstruction

Ta b l e

Impact Type Employment Labor Income Output Direct Effect 174 $8,354,663 $18,207,000 Indirect Effect 39 $1,944,595 $5,256,095 Induced Effect 59 $2,227,739 $7,028,451 Total Effect 272 $12,526,996 $30,491,545

The impact of the construction of the hotel and civic facilities is estimated to generate direct output of more than $18 million.

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3. Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project

C Infrastructure Construction

(continued)

Annual Economic Impacts of the Development of Bull Street InfrastructureConstruction

Table

Impact Type Employment Labor Income Output Direct Effect 439 $21,383,940 $49,258,810 Indirect Effect 113 $5,653,983 $14,848,313 Induced Effect 156 $5,845,982 $18,443,261 Total Effect 708 $32,883,904 $82,550,384

The Bull Street property will require a substantial investment in infrastructure. As seen in Table 4, the construction of the required infrastructure at the Bull Street property will generate additional economic activity. Infrastructure construction will most likely occur on an annual basis but will not be evenly distributed throughout the 20-year build-out period. In this analysis, the impacts are estimated for the first five years of infrastructure investment. This investment includes roads, water and sewer, stormwater management and a baseball park. The five-year impact of the construction of infrastructure is estimated to generate direct output of more than $49.3 million. The direct activity of this infrastructure construction activity has indirect and induced impacts. Together, as seen in Table 4, the indirect and induced impacts of the construction of infrastructure would add another $33 million in economic activity in the region for a total impact of $82.6 million.

The construction activity will generate labor income while producing this total output. The direct labor income of the construction activity is estimated to be $21.4 million. Adding the indirect and induced effects of this direct activity, the construction activity would generate another $11.4 million in labor income for a total labor income impact of $32.9 million. Finally, this construction activity is also a job generator in the area. The construction activity is estimated to directly create and support 439 jobs. The activity supports another 269 jobs indirectly for a total employment impact on the region of 708 jobs. These direct jobs are relatively high wage jobs, averaging almost $49,000 a year per employee.

The five-year impact of the construction of infrastructure is estimated to generate direct output of more than $49.3 million. PHOTO of Workers

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3. Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project

D Permanent Employment by Businesses in Bull Street
The largest economic impact from the development of the Bull Street property will be from the ongoing, permanent employment of those working within Bull Street and by those residents living in Bull Street. Once the project is complete, ongoing economic activity (commercial, office, retail, etc.) at Bull Street will generate tremendous economic activity on an annual basis in the Columbia area. The annual impacts of this permanent activity are estimated to generate direct output of $646 million per year. The direct activity of this ongoing activity has indirect and induced impacts. Together, as seen in Table 5, the indirect and induced impacts of the ongoing activity would add another $450 million in economic activity in the region for a total impact of $1.1 billion per year. This activity will generate labor income while producing this total output. The direct labor income of the ongoing activity is estimated to be $385 million a year. Adding the indirect and induced effects of this direct activity, this annual, ongoing activity would generate another $150 million in labor income a year for a total labor income impact of $536 million a year. Finally, the ongoing, permanent economic activity at Bull Street is estimated to be a substantial job generator in the area. The ongoing activity is estimated to directly create and support 6,142 jobs. The activity supports another 3,900 jobs indirectly for a total employment impact on the region of 10,040 jobs. These direct jobs are relatively high wage jobs, averaging more than $62,000 a year per employee.

(continued)

Once the project is complete, ongoing economic activity (commercial, office, retail, etc.) at Bull Street will generate tremendous economic activity on an annual basis in the Columbia area.

Annual Economic Impacts of the Development of Bull Street Employment (At Buildout)

Table

Impact Type Employment Labor Income Output Direct Effect 6,142 $385,044,865 $645,998,597 Indirect Effect 1,367 $55,582,659 $149,890,814 Induced Effect 2,531 $95,098,884 $300,012,722 Total Effect 10,040 $535,726,408 $1,095,902,133

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3. Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project

E Total Impacts
When all of these impacts are combined, the economic impacts of the development of Bull Street are impressive. As seen in Table 6, the total impacts of Bull Street will generate tremendous economic activity in the Columbia area. The development of Bull Street is estimated to generate direct output of more than $713.5 million per year. This direct activity also has indirect and induced impacts. Together, as seen in Table 6, the indirect and induced impacts of the project would add another $495 million in economic activity in the region -- for a total impact of $1.2 billion per year. The development activity will generate labor income while producing this total output. The direct labor income is estimated to be $415 million. Adding the indirect and induced effects of this direct activity, the project would generate another $166 million in labor income for a total labor income impact of $581 million. Finally, the development of Bull Street would generate a substantial number of jobs in the Columbia area. It is estimated to directly create and support 6,754 jobs. The activity supports another 4,265 jobs indirectly for a total employment impact on the region of 11,020 jobs. These direct jobs are relatively high wage jobs, averaging almost $62,000 a year per employee.

(continued)

Annual Economic Impacts of the Development of Bull Street Total Economic Impacts

Ta b l e

Impact Type Employment Labor Income Output Direct Effect 6,754 $414,783,468 $713,464,407 Indirect Effect 1,519 $63,181,237 $169,995,222 Induced Effect 2,746 $103,172,605 $325,484,434 Total Effect 11,020 $581,137,308 $1,208,944,062

While it is expected that the development of Bull Street would impact the construction sector, the indirect impacts reach across many industries across the region. As seen in Table 7, these indirect and induced impacts

will be felt across a wide spectrum of industries in the Midlands. Table 7 highlights the top 15 industry sectors that will be impacted by Bull Street in terms of new job creation.

Ta b l e

7
Total Jobs Supported 4874 1496 1105 717 325 313 237 155 142 126 111 97 61 48 32

Top 15 Industries Impacted by the Development of Bull Street

Top 15 Industries Impacted Medical/Office/Service/Occupations Retail Stores - Miscellaneous Construction of other new nonresidential structures Food services and drinking places Employment services Real estate establishments Multi-family structures Retail Stores - General merchandise Wholesale trade businesses Private hospitals Services to buildings and dwellings Activities Architectural, engineering, and related services Other amusement and recreation industries Hotels and motels, including casino hotels

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3. Economic Impact of the Bull Street Project

Table 8

(continued)

Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (At Buildout)

Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20
Estimated Assessed Value City Incremental Tax Revenues County Incremental Tax Revenues County Bond Incremental Tax Revenues School Incremental Tax Revenues School Bond Incremental Tax Revenues Total Incremental Tax Revenue $19,451,306 $32,561,758 $45,040,739 $59,764,629 $1,431,130 $2,395,731 $717,753 $1,201,529 $131,296 $219,792 $3,453,093 $5,780,526 $773,189 $1,294,330 $3,313,872 $1,662,003 $304,025 $1,790,369 $4,397,183 $2,205,315 $403,411 $2,375,644

Local Property Taxes in Richland County

The development of the Bull Street property will also generate substantial local property taxes. At build-out, the project is estimated to generate almost $20 million in local property taxes per year. These would be generated for the various local governments as indicated in Table 8. These tax revenue estimates are based on the total build-out as outlined in Table 8 and assume the millage rates that exist in 2013 are constant over the build-out period. All commercial, office and retail improvements and all multi-family dwelling units are assumed to be assessed at 6% as well as 50% of the single-family dwelling units. The remaining 50% of the single-family dwelling units are assumed to be owner-occupied and assessed at 4%. These 4% assessed units are also assumed to be exempt from school operating millages due to Act 388. As seen in Table 8, the property taxes for the school district would be substantial, increasing to more than $13 million a year. The City taxes would grow to about $4.4 million a year while County taxes would increase to about $2.6 million a year at the projects completion.

$7,995,857 $10,609,716

$6,506,462 $10,891,908 $15,066,127 $19,991,269

The development of the Bull Street property will also generate substantial local property taxes. At build-out, the project is estimated to generate almost $20 million in local property taxes per year.

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4. A Potential Catalyst for Bull Street Minor League Baseball

s outlined in this report, the development of Bull Street will have tremendous economic impacts on the Columbia area. However, Columbia could further enhance and speed up these impacts occurring by including a minor league baseball park in the development plan. Cities such as Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and Greenville are examples of cities in South Carolina where minor league baseball is thriving and stimulating additional development. Durham, N.C. and Ft Wayne, I.N. are two additional cities that have benefited from minor league parks. Columbia is ripe for minor league baseball and may even be at a competitive disadvantage with other South Carolina cities in terms of attractive places to live since it does not have a minor league team. According to the Central SC Alliance, more than 1.3 million people live within a 50-mile radius of Columbia.2 However, Columbia is the largest metropolitan area east of the Mississippi River that does not have a minor league baseball franchise. One of the real success stories of minor league baseball in South Carolina and the entire Southeast is the Greenville Drive at Flour Field in Greenville. Recent news of the teams success and impact include the following highlights3: Recognized as 2006 Ballpark of the Year Welcomed over 1.3 MM fans since Opening Day; more than 330,000 in attendance each year Set the South Carolina Upstate record for season attendance in 2006 Broke its own season attendance record in 2007 and again in 2008 Ranked first among 14 South Atlantic League Teams based on percentage of available seats sold Won The National Sports Forum 2009 Overall Award of Excellence Business leaders in Greenville have documented the tremendous economic benefits of the team, including4: 48 new businesses have opened, generating $12.5 MM in sales through 2009, e.g., 17 new restaurants and bars, 10 new retailers, art studios, health club, dance studio and more 67 building permits have been issued for both commercial and residential projects, e.g., Field Street, Custom House, Brownstone Condos, Rhett Street development and more Local businesses have also stated that Fluor Field and its amenities are one of the top quality of life advantages consistently mentioned when companies are encouraged to move to the Upstate and out-of-area talent is being recruited by local employers.5 The Greenville park is one of the more modern, multi-purpose parks that host a wide range of activities in addition to baseball games. A recent article in the Greenville Journal noted the following activities that are clear indicators of how the ball park and team form a true part of the local community 6: Part of the Drives success is the teams effort to turn every game into an event focused on a segment of the community. A .J. Whittenberg Night centered on the nearby engineering-focused elementary school, the first downtown school built in four decades. Another initiative, the Drive Reading AllStars, promotes reading to more than 75,000 students in Green-

FIGUR E

Minor League Baseball Facilities

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The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

4. A Potential Catalyst for Bull Street Minor League Baseball

ville, Spartanburg and Pickens counties. The program culminates with four pre-game ceremonies celebrating participants reading successes. And when the stadium is not hosting one of the teams 70 home games, the Drive makes it available for events such as the Susan G. Komen Race for the Cure, college and high school baseball games and fundraisers for nonprofit groups. The Travelers Rest Tribune provided additional evidence that a minor league park in the right place can stimulate downtown development7: According to a feasibility study released earlier this year, properties located close to Fluor Field have experienced increases in value at a time when much of the nation was reeling from the effects of a sagging real estate market. The study cites the Greenville Drive as a textbook example that illustrates the economic growth associated with a minor league baseball stadium, stating that properties within [a half-mile] radius saw an average 31 percent annual increase in assessed value from 2006-2011, and the facility, by all accounts, has completely transformed the city. This is echoed by developers in the region. Joe Pazdan, an Upstate developer, stated: You wouldnt believe the marketing power Fluor Field has for Greenvillereally a strong attraction and advantage to companies thinking of relocating or setting up a new facility here in the Upstate! 8 The minor league franchises appreciate this type of community involvement and understand the connection between minor league baseball and economic development. Eric Krupa, president of the South Atlantic League, said .The Drive is the poster child for how a stadium can drive downtown development. 9 Jim Bourey, former Greenville City Manager, said: The Drive has been the spark plug in the West Ends economic development engine! The numbers of new businesses opened and investments being made around the ballpark are remarkable. 10 Perhaps an April 2013 editorial in the Greenville News summed it up best when it stated: All of this has helped make Fluor Field a hub for downtown activity, and it is further evidence that bringing this particular baseball team to downtown Greenville has been a civic home run. 11 A plan that incorporates a minor league baseball franchise as part

(continued)

of an urban redevelopment while also focusing on neighborhood level economic development can be successful especially if, at the end of the project, baseball is played in the off season, meaning the development is sustainable year-round based on its own development merits. Therefore, baseball inside a greater development plan needs to be considered versus a stadium alone. The reason to use this approach is to increase the urban developments chance of success. This is the model that should be considered for Bull Street.

You wouldnt believe the marketing power Fluor Field has for Greenville really a strong attraction and advantage to companies thinking of relocating or setting up a new facility here in the Upstate!
- Joe Pazdan, Upstate Developer

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5. Summary
s outlined in this analysis, the development of the Bull Street property clearly will have a tremendous impact on the greater Columbia metropolitan economy. The benefits outlined here will be generated from the construction phases, and the permanent on-going phase of the development project. If the property is developed as outlined in the Hughes Development plan and successfully implemented within the 20-year build-out, the impacts as outlined in this analysis can be reasonably expected to be realized in the greater metropolitan area of Columbia. As described in this report, the total economic impacts of the development of Bull Street would generate more than $1.2 billion of economic activity per year, $581 million in labor income and more than 11,000 new jobs when completed.

The total economic impacts of the development of Bull Street would generate more than $1.2 billion of economic activity per year, $581 million in labor income and more than 11,000 new jobs when completed.
Annual Economic Impacts of the Development of Bull Street Total Economic Impacts

Ta b l e

Impact Type Employment Labor Income Output Direct Effect 6,754 $414,783,468 $713,464,407 Indirect Effect 1,519 $63,181,237 $169,995,222 Induced Effect 2,746 $103,172,605 $325,484,434 Total Effect 11,020 $581,137,308 $1,208,944,062

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5. Summary

(continued)

Columbia is ripe for minor league baseball and may even be at a competitive disadvantage with other South Carolina cities in terms of attractive places to live since it does not have a minor league team... Columbia is the largest metropolitan area east of the Mississippi River that does not have a minor league baseball franchise.

And the project will generate substantial property taxes in the region. At build-out, Bull Street is estimated to generate almost $20 million a year in property taxes for the local governments and school district. An additional benefit from the proposed development of the Bull Street project is that many of the additional costs to the City, Richland County and Richland One School District that result from new residential development would most likely be relatively modest. Since the project is located in a well-established area within the City, a great deal of the off-site infrastructure -- such as regional water and sewer capacity, connecting traffic arteries and school capacity -- already exists to serve the area. Finally, Columbia could further enhance and speed up these impacts occurring by including a minor league baseball park in the development plan. Cities such as Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and Greenville are examples of cities in

South Carolina where minor league baseball is thriving and stimulating additional development. Durham, N.C. and Ft Wayne, I.N. are two additional cities that have benefited from minor league parks. Columbia is ripe for minor league baseball and may even be at a competitive disadvantage with other South Carolina cities in terms of attractive places to live since it does not have a minor league team. According to the Central SC Alliance, more than 1.3 million people live within a 50-mile radius of Columbia. Columbia is the largest metropolitan area east of the Mississippi River that does not have a minor league baseball franchise. The evidence is clear that multipurpose, neighborhood minor league parks, similar to the ones in Greenville, S.C. and Ft. Wayne, I.N. that are part of an urban development project, can be a major catalyst for the overall development project and provide substantial economic impacts to the metropolitan area.

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Endnotes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 IMPLAN is regional modeling system developed by MIG, Inc., Stillwater, MN. Central SC Alliance, 2013, http://www.centralsc.org/regionaldata/populationcharacteristics.aspx Greenville Drive Celebrate 5 Year Anniversary in Downtown West End, Greenville Drive, 2010 Greenville Drive Celebrate 5 Year Anniversary in Downtown West End, Greenville Drive, 2010 Greenville Drive Celebrate 5 Year Anniversary in Downtown West End, Greenville Drive, 2010 Greenville Journal, A Home Run on the West End, December 13, 2012 Travelers Rest Tribune, More Than Just Greenvilles Drive, May 4, 2012 Greenville Drive Celebrate 5 Year Anniversary in Downtown West End, Greenville Drive, 2010 Greenville Journal, A Home Run on the West End, December 13, 2012

10 Greenville Drive Celebrate 5 Year Anniversary in Downtown West End, Greenville Drive, 2010 11 Greenville News, Drive keep winning for Greenville, April 14, 2013

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The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

Miley & Associates

and private sector clients. Miley & Associates conducts fiscal and economic impact analyses of proposed new developments and has extensive experience in assisting clients with their economic development and community revitalization projects. Dr. Miley served as Chairman of the South Carolina Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) under two Governors. The BEA is responsible for estimating the States revenues for the Governor and the General Assembly to use in formulating the States annual budget. Dr. Miley was originally appointed as Chairman by Governor Carroll Campbell and continued to serve as Chairman for Governor David Beasley. Dr. Miley was the Senior Executive Assistant for Economic Development to Governor Campbell from 1987 to 1989. Dr. Miley served as principal advisor to Governor Carroll Campbell on the states policies for economic development, employment and training, work force and adult illiteracy, technical education and transportation issues. Prior to joining the Governors Office, Dr. Miley was on the faculty of the Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina and Associate Director of the Division of Research at the School.

iley & Associates is one of the Southeasts leading economic and financial consulting firms. The firm specializes in economic impact analyses, fiscal impact analyses, feasibility reports, impact fee studies and benefit/ cost modeling. Our clients include national and prominent local real estate developers, school districts, local governments, regional development agencies, and other private sector development firms. Miley & Associates partners appear regularly before decision-makers at all levels of government and understand the values, needs and desires of the clients they represent. With offices located in Columbia, South Carolina, the firm is well positioned to provide clients with hands-on service for projects throughout the entire Southeast region. Miley & Associates appreciates that every research project is unique and deserves a custom solution. Public policy decisions are not made overnight, and we excel at providing advice and counsel along the way. We represent our clients. Our business plan is simple: we focus on exceeding our clients expectations and building long-term relationships. Miley & Associates, Inc. was founded in 1993 by Harry W. Miley, Jr. Ph. D. The Company is an economic and financial consulting firm providing a range of analytical services to public

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The Economic Impact of the Transformation of the Bull Street Property

General Limiting Conditions

will usually be differences between projected and actual results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and those differences may be material. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, the clients agent and representatives or any other data source used in preparing this study. This report is based on information that was current as of April 2013 and Miley & Associates, Inc. has not undertaken any update of its research effort since that date. We have no obligation, unless subsequently engaged, to update this report or revise this analysis as presented due to events or conditions occurring after the date of this report. Possession of this study does not carry with it the right of publication thereof or to use the name of Miley & Associates, Inc. in any manner without first obtaining the prior written consent of Miley & Associates, Inc. No abstracting, excerpting or summarization of this study may be made without first obtaining the prior written consent of Miley & Associates, Inc. This report is not to be used in conjunction with any public or private offering of securities or other similar purpose. This study may not be used for purposes other than that for which it is prepared or for which prior written consent has first been obtained from Miley & Associates, Inc. This study is qualified in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of, these limitations, conditions and considerations.

his economic impact analysis is not a budget or forecasting document and is not intended to depict a definitive course of action. Moreover, economic impact analysis is not designed as a space or facility-planning document. Many assumptions underlying economic impact analyses are based on policy decisions which, if modified, would affect the overall results. This study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Miley & Associates, Inc. from its independent research effort, consultations with the client and its representatives, and primary and secondary sources. We have utilized sources that are deemed to be reliable but cannot guarantee their accuracy. Moreover, estimates and analysis are based on trends and assumptions and, therefore, there

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