31st Annual Meeting of DDP Houston, TX, July 12-14, 2013 J. Scott Armstrong, Ph.D. Armstrong@wharton@upenn.edu J.

Scott Armstrong (Ph.D., MIT, 1968), professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a proponent of evidence-based management. He is the founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the author of Long-Range Forecasting (1985). He is the editor of Principles of Forecasting (2001), which summarizes reviews of evidence on forecasting methods compiled by 40 leading experts from various disciplines. The summaries were reviewed by 123 outside reviewers from various fields. The result was a set of 139 evidence-based principles. To date, this is the only set of evidence-based principles for forecasting. The principles are updated on forecastingprinciples.com. Forecasts of global warming have been found to violate most of these principles. Full-text versions of his papers on climate change forecasting are available at publicpolicyforecasting.com. In 2007, he proposed a bet with Al Gore that he could more accurately predict climate change by simply predicting no change. While Mr. Gore refused to take the bet, the climatebet.com site provides monthly updates on what would have happened. At the midpoint at the end of 2012, Professor Armstrong had won four of the first five years. His book, Persuasive Advertising (2011), provides evidencebased persuasion principles. These 195 principles, many counter-intuitive, are relevant to dealing with the globalwarming movement. Larry Bell http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/ Larry Bell is a professor and endowed professor at the University of Houston, where he founded and directs the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and heads the graduate program in space architecture. He has worked extensively with research, planning and design of habitats, structures, and other support systems for applications in space and extreme environments on Earth. He has been involved in all aspects of mission planning for lunar programs, Mars programs, orbital programs, spacecraft design, linking the issues of human support to the technical issues. Bell recently authored Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax. His weekly column in Forbes, which concerns climate, energy, environmental, and space policy, is The Bell Tells for You. Robert L. Bradley, Jr., Ph.D. Institute for Energy Research 1100 H St NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20005 Robert L. Bradley Jr. is the CEO and founder of the Institute for Energy Research. As one of the nations leading experts on the history and regulation of energy markets, he has testified before the U.S. Congress and the California Energy Commission, as well as lectured at numerous colleges, universities, and think tanks around the country. Bradleys reviews and editorials have been published in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and other national publications. Bradley is a visiting fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs in London, an honorary research fellow at the Center for Energy Economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and an adjunct scholar at both the Cato Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute. He is the author of seven books, most recently Edison to Enron: Energy Markets and Political Strategies (John Wiley & Sons, Scrivener Publishing). Bradley has applied the classical liberal worldview to recent corporate controversies and energy policy debates. His energy primer (coauthored with Richard Fulmer) is Energy: The Master Resource. He holds a Ph.D. in political economy from International College. Harrison T. (Spud) Brundage, B.A. 10019 Warwana Road Houston, Texas 77080 truesdal@hotmail.com Mr. Brundage is a retired Houston petroleum geologist and technical writer with 50 years of petroleum-related experience. Commercial oil and gas deposits have been found and produced pursuant to his work in south and offshore Texas and Louisiana, Ohio and West Virginia. He was born in Washington, D.C., in 1927, of parents both involved in medical initiatives, particularly his fathers statistical analyses of the incidence of silicosis among Pennsylvania hard coal miners. Allegations of crude-oil-caused lupus came to his attention as a contract technical writer doing an in-house Chevron computer evaluation publication during 1991-98. As an industrycommodity analyst with the Petroleum Administration for Defense, 1951-53, he processed more forms PAD-15, application for emergency exploratory tubular goods from wildcatters nationwide than any other individual. Then he was a member of Naval Petroleum Reserve Unit 1, Potomac River Naval Command. He has worked in petroleum exploration and development as a corporate and/or consulting geologist. He has 17 years experience as a technical writer and editor for World Oil, Pipe Line Industry, Petroleum Refiner renamed Hydrocarbon

Speakers

Processing HP/PR, Petroleum Engineer International and Dwights Hotline Energy Reports. Franklin Chang-Diaz, Ph.D. Ad Astra Rocket Company 141 West Bay Area Boulevard Webster, Texas 77598 Dr. Franklin Chang Diaz is founder and current CEO of Ad Astra Rocket Company, www.adastrarocket.com, a U.S. firm developing advanced plasma rocket technology with operations in Houston, Texas, and Guanacaste, Costa Rica. In 2005 Dr. Chang Daz completed a 25-year career as a NASA astronaut, where he became a veteran of 7 space missions. He has logged more than 1,600 hours in space, including 19 hours in three space walks. In 1994, in conjunction with astronaut training at NASA, he founded and directed the Advanced Space Propulsion Laboratory (ASPL) at the Johnson Space Center, where he managed a multi-center research team developing advanced plasma rocket propulsion concepts. Dr. Chang Daz is the inventor of the VASIMR engine, a highpower plasma rocket currently under development by Ad Astra for in-space applications. He has more than 30 years of experience in experimental plasma physics, engineering, and high-power electric propulsion and 25 years of experience in space operation and the management and implementation of research and development programs at NASA. Dr. Chang Daz holds a Ph.D. degree in applied plasma physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Bachelor of Science degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Connecticut. Prior to his work at NASA, Dr. Chang Daz was involved in magnetic and inertial confinement fusion research at MIT and the Charles Stark Draper Laboratory. He is an adjunct professor of physics at Rice University and the University of Houston. Gordon Claycomb gdancer@mindspring.com www.aircraftvibrationconsultants.com After receiving his B.S. in aeronautical engineering in 1959 and a USAF commission via ROTC, Mr. Claycomb went to work at Boeing on the Minuteman ICBM. He was called to active duty in 1960 as a maintenance officer and served for 4 years in USAF/SAC /2nd Air Force. After this, he held a variety of civilian aerospace engineering jobs all related to shock, vibration, and acoustics, including: the Apollo Saturn V booster Rocket, Mk 12 multiple warhead re-entry system, Manned Orbital Lab, and Boeing commercial jet field service problems. He finally found a home at Lockheed in Burbank, Calif., in 1970. There he worked on the L-1011 wide-body commercial jet from its early design phase through manufacture to FAA Certification, followed by 8 years of solving field service problems. At Lockheeds Skunk Works, he then worked on the SR-71 Blackbird (mods only), the F-117A Night Hawk

Stealth Bomber, the XF-22A Prototype (now F-22A Raptor), and many classified programs. He retired in 1999 and continued to work there until 2005 as a consultant. His last major job was the X-35 Concept Demonstrator Prototype (now in production as the F-35A) VSTOL supersonic jet fighter currently located at the Smithsonian. Kevin Freeman Kevin@freemanglobal.net NY Times bestselling author Kevin D. Freeman holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation (1997 to present) and is the Founder & CEO of Freeman Global Holdings, LLC. In 1990, Freeman was chosen to help build the Templeton Private Client group, which managed nearly $2.5 billion in global markets within a decade. After his time at Templeton, he started his own investment advisory and consulting firm. Because of his unique understanding of world financial markets, following the stock market crash of 2008 he was contracted by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to research external causes. In 2009 Freemans research culminated in a report submitted to the DOD titled Economic Warfare: Risks and Responses, which concluded that hostile foreign entities had the means, motive, and opportunity to hit a vulnerable U.S. stock market in ways we didnt think possible. Freeman has since briefed members of Congress, U.S. senators, and past and present members of the CIA, DIA, FBI, SEC, Homeland Security, Justice Department, and state and local law enforcement on his findings. In April, 2011 Freemans DOD report was made public, after which he appeared on multiple international television and radio media outlets including CNBC, Fox News, Glenn Beck, the Counter Terrorist, the Washington Times, and the UKs Daily Mail and Times of London. His book Secret Weapon details his findings and exposes the main goal of Americas enemiescollapsing our nations economy over time. Mr. Freeman currently serves as senior fellow for both the Center for Security Policy and the American Center for Democracy/Economic Warfare Institute. Steve Goreham gorehamsa@comcast.net Steve Goreham is researcher on environmental issues, an engineer and business executive, and a columnist for The Washington Times. Hes the Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America, a non-political association of scientists, engineers, and citizens dedicated to informing Americans about the realities of climate science and energy economics. Goreham is the author of two books on climate change: The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania and Climatism! Science, Common Sense, and the 21st Centurys Hottest Topic. More than 100,000 copies of his books are now in print. He addresses the three false foundations of the ideology of Sustainable Development: 1) that mankind is increasingly polluting our world, 2) that

mankind is destroying Earths climate, and 3) that global resources are rapidly being depleted. Goreham holds an M.S. in Electrical Engineering from the University of Illinois and an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago. He has more than 30 years of experience at Fortune 100 and private companies in engineering and executive roles. Steven Hatfill, M.D. shatfill@gwu.edu Dr. Hatfill is an adjunct assistant professor in the Department of Emergency Medicine, and the Department of Immunology, Microbiology and Tropical Medicine at the George Washington University, where is involved in undergraduate and graduate teaching. He is a former consultant to the Washington D.C. National Medical Response Team (NMRT). As part of the Operational Medical Branch of George Washington University, he is a contract medical instructor in Tactical Combat Casualty Care for select units of the U.S. military and the development of new tactical medical response equipment. Previous experience includes specialized training development and implementation for the Joint Special Operations Command, the DIA, the Defense Attach System, the U.S. Department of State, and the USAF. In 2000, was certified as a United Nations Weapon Inspector (UNMOVIC) for Iraq. Past academic research includes investigation of the bleeding abnormalities and vascular pathology associated with Ebola and Marburg virus infection, testing of the Nematode Anticoagulant Protein in a non-human primate model of Ebola infection, the potential use of cidofovir in orthopoxvirus infections, and use of the NASA rotating wall bioreactor to provide human tissue models of HIV infection, prostate cancer, and Lyme disease. Lee D. Hieb, M.D. loganpod@gmail.com Dr. Lee Hieb began her career in medicine at age four, accompanying her father on house calls along the back roads of Iowa. She graduated from the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry in Rochester New York, and completed an orthopaedic residency in the U.S. Navy. After serving as a general orthopaedic surgeon in the Navy, she returned to Rochester where she was the only woman to be appointed as the Louis A. Goldstein fellow of spinal surgery. Dr. Hieb has been in private practice for more than 25 years, and this experience has led her to become an outspoken advocate for free-market solutions. Dr. Hieb has served on the board of the Arizona Medical Association, and is a past president of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society.

Herbert Inhaber, Ph.D. hinhaber@hotmail.com Herbert Inhaber is an analyst who has anticipated scientific/environmental trends for decades. He is the author of the Inhaber Report on comparative energy risk, and a fellow and member of the board of directors of the American Nuclear Society. He has written eight books: Why Energy Conservation Fails, Slaying the NIMBY Dragon, Energy Risk Assessment, Environmental Indices, Physics of the Environment, What in the World?, How Rich Is Too Rich?, and a book on folk masks around the world. Dr. Inhaber has written more than 150 papers, articles, book chapters, and reviews in such journals and publications as Science, Nature, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Risk Analysis, Risk Abstracts, Risk Management Quarterly, and Annals of Nuclear Energy. His work has been cited more than 2,200 times in the technical literature, in many foreign languages (German, French, Hungarian, Danish, Finnish, Korean, Polish, Portuguese, Spanish and others). He has lectured on risk assessment in many states and in 15 countries. He has also authored encyclopedia articles in McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Energy; McGraw-Hill Standard Handbook of Environmental Science, Health & Technology; Encyclopedia of Energy; and Encyclopedia of Water. He has published more than 200 newspaper columns, in such papers as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and the Christian Science Monitor. Howard Maccabee, Ph.D., M.D. maccabee@comcast.net Dr. Maccabee, a founder and former president of DDP, was medical director of the Radiation Oncology Center of Walnut Creek, California, and an assistant clinical professor at the University of California at San Francisco. He holds a Ph.D. in nuclear physics and worked with Edward Teller. He frequently speaks to medical groups about global warming or other subjects, and was a featured speaker at the 2008 and 2009 International Conference on Climate Change sponsored by the Heartland Institute. Donald Miller, M.D. www.donaldmiller.com Dr. Miller was born in 1940 in Hawaii, the son of a Navy surgeon. He attended Dartmouth College and received his M.D. degree from Harvard Medical School. After a 5-year surgical residency he was a Navy surgeon, on active duty for two years. Following a fellowship in cardiothoracic surgery at Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center and Harlem Hospital, he joined the faculty at the University of Washington School of Medicine. He is a professor of surgery there, an emeritus chief of the schools division of cardiothoracic surgery, and currently directs the cardiothoracic surgery program at the Seattle VA Medical Center. Dr. Miller has written two books on heart surgery and Heart in Hand, which delves into the philosophy of

Arthur Schopenhauer, the films of Woody Allen, science, religion, music, and his life as a heart surgeon. He also writes articles on a variety of subjects for LewRockwell.com. Matthew Robinson Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine P.O. Box 1279 Cave Junction, OR 97523 Matthew Robinson received his B.S. in chemistry from Southern Oregon University and is in the Ph.D. program in nuclear engineering at Oregon State University. In the 2012 election he challenged U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio in the Democrat primary in Oregon District 4. S. Fred Singer, Ph.D. singer@sepp.org S. Fred Singer is professor emeritus at the University of Virginia and director of the Science & Environmental Policy Project. His specialty is atmospheric and space physics. An expert in remote sensing and satellites, he served as the founding director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service and, more recently, as vice chair of the U.S. National Advisory Committee on Oceans & Atmosphere. He is a Senior Fellow of the Heartland Institute and the Independent Institute. He coauthored the NY Times best-seller Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years. In 2007, he founded and has since chaired the NIPCC (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change), which has released several scientific reports. Dr. Singer holds a Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University. He was a pioneer in the development of rocket and satellite technology, devised the basic instrument for measuring stratospheric ozone, and was principal investigator on a satellite experiment retrieved by the Space Shuttle in 1990. Singer received DDPs Petr Beckmann Award in 2000 and the Edward Teller Award in 2007. Willie Soon, Ph.D. vanlien@earthlink.net Willie Soon is both an astrophysicist and a geoscientist at the Solar, Stellar, and Planetary Sciences Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. He is the receiving editor in the area of solar and stellar physics for the journal New Astronomy. He writes and lectures both professionally and publicly on the sun, other stars, and the earth, as well as general science topics in astronomy and physics. He is the senior author of The Maunder Minimum and the

Variable Sun-Earth Connection and coauthor of Introduction to Astronomy, a textbook used for students with little or no access to telescopes. In 2003, Soon was asked to testify in the U.S. Senate and was later recognized with a monetary award for detailed scholarship on bio-geological and climatic change over the past 1,000 years by the Smithsonian Institution. In 2004, he was presented with the Petr Beckmann Award by Doctors for Disaster Preparedness for courage and achievement in defense of scientific truth and freedom. All views expressed at this conference are strictly his own and do not represent those of any institution. Anthony Watts www.wattsupwiththat.com
Anthony Watts is a 25-year broadcast meteorology veteran and currently chief meteorologist for KPAY-AM radio. He got his start as on-air meteorologist for WLFI-TV in Lafayette, Indiana and at KHSL-TV in Chico, California. In 1987, he founded ItWorks, which supplies broadcast graphics systems to hundreds of cable television, television, and radio stations nationwide. ItWorks supplies custom weather stations, Internet servers, weather graphics content, and broadcast video equipment. He also provides weather stations and custom weather monitoring solutions via www.weathershop.com and www.tempelert.com, and turnkey weather channels. In 2007, Watts founded SurfaceStations.org, a Web site devoted to photographing and documenting the quality of weather stations across the U.S. He is the author of Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?

Robert Zubrin zubrin@aol.com Robert Zubrin holds masters degrees in aeronautics and astronautics and a doctorate in nuclear engineering. He is the inventor of several unique concepts for space propulsion and exploration. He has authored more than 100 published technical and non-technical papers in the field, as well as written several books. As an engineer at Lockheed-Martin, he co-developed the Mars Direct plan for affordable manned Mars Missions. Robert is now president of his own space R&D Company called Pioneer Astronautics. He founded the Mars Society, an international organization dedicated to furthering the exploration and settlement of Mars by both public and private means. Prior to his work in astronautics, Dr. Zubrin was employed in areas of thermonuclear fusion research, nuclear engineering, radiation protection, and as a high school science teacher. His most recent book is Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism.