San Francisco Bay Area Governments San Francisco Bay Area, California Subject: Emergence of Self-Driving Vehicles: Impacts

on Bay Area Labor Needs, Immigration, and Government Services Elected Public Officials: Population projections forward into the next thirty years There has been a lot of discussion over the past decade about future growth in the San Francisco Bay Area (SF.BayArea), which has been linked to the need for immigration, and housing needs for this area. Unfortunately, few of the methods, or datasets used by those making these projections have generally been made available to the public. The following graphic plots the population growth rate over the past sixty years:

Graphic.1SF.BayArea Growth Rates From 1950 to 2020. As you can see, the SF.BayArea has grown to its current size, less space has become available to accommodate new residents, and the growth rate now is close to zero. The question for all of us then becomes: how much more growth can the SF.BayArea expect in the coming decades? Will this growth rate continue to decline, and possibly even turn negative, as the area can not accommodate more people, who look elsewhere for places to live, build businesses, and raise families?

This question is clearly not readily answerable, but neither is it unanswerable, at least in part. Knowing what kinds of employers/industries are currently operating in the SF.BayArea would be a start, but the making of meaningful projects obviously jumps up as the first challengeparticularly since technology has been, and will continue to change the service delivery models for business, and government, alike. Automated Vehicles/Driverless Cars The technology enabling vehicle automation has been under development for decades. There seems to be a growing consensus that within another decade, driverless cars will be a realitywith dates between 2020 and 2025 being commonly suggested by vendors, and reviewers alike. The emergence, and acceptance, of this technology will have major impact on our way of doing business, both in the public, and private sector. There is no doubt that drivers of service vehicles will be in less demand, in the future, as the following Wall Street Journal article speculates: Daddy, What was a Driver? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324144304578624221804774116.html Over the past couple of years, the SF.BayArea governments have been considering possible futuresincluding that future promoted by ABAG. This ABAG future seems to have little insight into the rise of technology to provide mechanization/automation as a replacement for workers that may, or may not, be available in the future. This communication is one of a series of quick reviews of emerging technologies for elected officials to use to hopefully increase their understanding of the possibilities for public sector, and private sector, employers.

Private/Public Sector Use of Self-Driving Vehicles The following, in outline format, is intended to provide a very short list of occupations where driverless vehicles could be utilized: Most Activities Requiring a Human Driver Parcel/Equipment Delivery/Pickup Earth Moving Factory/Warehouse Equipment/Merchandise Placement Transportation Services Local/Regional Buses School Buses Shuttles Taxis Limousines Public Safety Police Patrol/Surveillance Equipment Delivery to Crime/Fire Sites Traffic Monitoring/Pacing Emergency Traffic Management Public Works Street Condition Surveys Street Sweeping Street Striping Painting Street Light/Traffic Light Replacement (with Robotic Assist) Garbage Pickup (with Robotic Assist) City Dump Site Management (with Robotic Assist) Equipment Delivery Junk/Debris Haul-away There are no doubt other jobs in your organizations which could be performed with a self-driving vehicle, and some sort of robotic assist. Videos and Print Articles About Vehicle Automation The following links point to short Youtube videos, and some print articles, which provide details about self-driving vehicles, and the technology, in general: Robot Cars and Why They Matter:
http://xerox.theweek.com/why-robot-cars-matter/

Autonomous Vehicles: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vo9Qz0_TwhE

Google Car Presentation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eViuiTwIJ6w Driving Technology: Autonomous Vehicles, Connected Cars and the Future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPCt7mu-pb0 Top Gear Hands-Free Test-Drive Autonomous Driverless self-driving car - Top Gear BBC: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP3bTzrZnns Tesla hunts for driverless-vehicle expert: http://venturebeat.com/2013/09/16/tesla-driverless-vehicles/ Why Self-Driving Cars Will Be Awesome - TechnoBuffalo's Driven: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yHnAtN1D5Y Test DRIVING in the Oxford Self Driving Robot Car: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQHm4ev3f-4 Tesla, Google Exploring 'Autopilot' Car Technology: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9fUQ-_NBbU

Autonomous Cars, CES 2013:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6z8veF1JJQU&list=TLZsOOQ7YXctc Autonomous Cars, CES 2013 | TRANSLOGIC 121 | AOL Autos Mercedes-Benz S 500 Intelligent Drive Autonomous Car Self Driving Car: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHqB47F12vI&list=TLZsOOQ7YXctc U.S. Department of Transportation Releases Policy on Automated Vehicle Development http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/U.S. +Department+of+Transportation+Releases+Policy+on+Automated+Vehicle+De velopment Driverless Car Summit 2012: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search? q=cache:bZcP7qco7DYJ:www.princeton.edu/~alaink/Orf467F12/ITFVHA12_Vienna/IT FVHA12_USA_Driverless_Car_Summit_AUVSI_Bishop.pptx+&cd=11&hl=en&ct=cln k&gl=us Driverless Cars Are Likely to Get Boost From DOT Ruling: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323689204578569522831813786.html

Getting ready for driverless cars: Benefits recognized, no public sales except for testing purposes: http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865581177/Getting-ready-for-driverless-carsBenefits-recognized-but-cars-still-banned-except-for-testing.html?pg=all U.S. Department of Transportation Releases Policy on Automated Vehicle Development: http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/U.S. +Department+of+Transportation+Releases+Policy+on+Automated+Vehicle+Developme nt Driverless Cars Are Likely to Get Boost From DOT Ruling: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323689204578569522831813786.html States take the wheel on driverless cars http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/29/states-driverless-cars/2595613/ Driverless Cars in 2022: A Follow-on Session to The Driverless Car Summit: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/multimedia/research/operations/driverlesscars2022/ Schedule of Two-day Driverless Car Summit: http://www.auvsi.org/AUVSIsDriverlessCarSummit/PROGRAM/DAYTWO/USDOTAd dress CMU Driverless Car Tested Around Pittsburgh - RAW Video & Interviews: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfOEVPLs5cY Rep. Bill Shuster travels to Pittsburgh International Airport in driverless car: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV2IEGhYPBw Why Self-Driving Cars Will Be Awesome - TechnoBuffalo's Driven: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yHnAtN1D5Y (Preview) Test DRIVING in the Oxford Self Driving Robot Car: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQHm4ev3f-4 Tesla, Google Exploring 'Autopilot' Car Technology: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9fUQ-_NBbU France/Driverless Cars Spurring Economy: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/12/france-industry-idUSL5N0H73T020130912 NYT/US Military and Robotic Vehicles:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/science/military-lags-in-push-for-robotic-groundvehicles.html?src=portal_starbucks3
Cuts in spending and technological challenges have left the military with virtually no chance of meeting the goal set by Congress to have a third of the combat fleet consist of unmanned vehicles by 2015, experts said.

Conclusion Elected officialsthe future is bursting in through the front door, every day. While there are still several years, the time will soon come when these vehicles are available on the showroom floors of SF.BayArea car dealers. The private sector will doubtless be eager to employ this technology to reduce its costs, and to increase its corporate profitability. But what about the public sector? Will it see the same opportunityto redesign its service delivery models, employing technology where it had previously employed low skill labor, much of which has been predicted to be supplied through immigration? Please take the time to review these videos, and documents. Its clear that visions by ABAG about future growth in the SF.BayArea needs to be rethoughtin light of this emerging technology. On-the-NET: A Short Review of Hospital Automation: http://www.scribd.com/doc/167362347/A-Short-Review-of-Hospital-Automationinvolving-Robotics Respectfully, Wayne Martin Palo Alto, CA www.scribd.com/wmartin46 www.twitter.com/wmartin46 www.youtube.com/wmartin46