HyperAdvance

The Knowledge/Question Cycle, Futuring,

and the Future Enterprise

Bruce LaDuke

07/09/09 © 2009 Bruce LaDuke

Directional Categorization
Who What When Where Why How

Known

Unknown

07/09/09 © 2008 Bruce LaDuke

Knowledge Creation Cutting Edge

1. Definition/Solution/Structure
(Understand Context)
2. Question/Problem Knowledge
3. Logical Operation Structure
(connects/structures/defines)
4. Result: Advanced
Definition/Solution/Structure
5. Return to step 1 Knowledge Questions
Creation

Unknown

Encapsulates all forms of creativity, innovation, and problem solving

07/09/09 © 2008 Bruce LaDuke

Performance
KC Cycle
Enterprise
Knowledge Creator
Learner

Instructor Social
Accepter

Social Ignorant
Knowledge
Base

Expression/Non-Expression

07/09/09 © 2008 Bruce LaDuke

Singularity

Simultaneous Convergence
and Knowledge Advance Volume
Chaos
Complexity
Volatility
Change

e
Risk

itiv
gn Upheaval
o
o Bi
fo

Nan
Co
In

07/09/09 © 2008 Bruce LaDuke

 Future Enterprise
 Foresight
 Balanced Knowledge
Know/ Adaptable
Advance


Question

Decide KC Cycle
Impact
Integral
Dialogue Economy
Supply and
Demand
Say/Do
Result Or Social
Change Context
Balance of
Interests

07/09/09 © 2008 Bruce LaDuke

HyperAdvance

Backup Slides

07/09/09 © 2009 Bruce LaDuke

Empiricism Rationalism
Empirical Disciplines Rational Disciplines
(e.g., chemistry, biology, physics) (e.g., technology, art)

Expanding Rational
Logic Method
Converging Scientific
Reality Logic Method

Discovery Creation/
Invention

07/09/09 © 2008 Bruce LaDuke

Past Present Future
Mystery creativity/tacit knowledge Creative/innovation methods One integral method
(KC process)
Aristotelian logic Fuzzy logic Three-dimensional logic
Scientific method (empiricism or Rational (mostly creative) Unified scientific / rational
rationalism) method method
Amass knowledge Amass/find knowledge Cooperatively work knowledge

Behavioral focus (Skinner) Emergence (collective Structural (Peirce) and

behavioral focus) behavioral focus
Human intelligence Artificial intelligence Artificial knowledge creation

Synchronous comm. Asynchronous comm. Ubiquitous comm.

Division of labor Division of Mental Labor Integral performance
National interests Network interests Social balance
Strategy Long range planning / futuring Integral futuring

Individual advance Simultaneous convergence Automated advance / (Space

/advance age or implosion)

© 2008 Bruce LaDuke

Increased Change and Volatility
Increased Change
 1972 to 1987 - U.S. government deleted 50 industries from
its standard industrial classification. Added or refined 200
industries.
 1987 to 1997 - Deleted 500. Added or refined 1,000.

Increased Volatility
 1950 to 2000 - Variability in S&P 500 stock prices increased
more than tenfold.
 1950s, 60s, and 70s - market fluctuation of 3% only occurred
twice a year.
Source: "It's Alive" by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis

 Past two years - twice a month.

© 2008 Bruce LaDuke

 Environmental Scanning  Genius Forecasting, Vision, and
Intuition
 The Delphi Method
 Normative Forecasting
 The Futures Wheel
 S&T Road Mapping
 Trend Impact Analysis
 Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)
 Cross-Impact Analysis
 Text Mining for Technology
 Structural Analysis Foresight
 The Systems Perspectives  Agent Modeling
 Decision Modeling  State of the Future Index (SOFI)
 Statistical Modeling Method
 Technology Sequence Analysis  SOFI System
 Relevance Trees and  The Multiple Perspective
Morphological Analysis Concept
 Scenarios  A Toolbox for Scenario
Planning
 Interactive Scenarios
 Causal Layered Analysis
 Participatory Methods
 Integration, Comparisons, and
 Simulation and Games Frontiers of Futures Research
Methods
AC/UNU Millennium Project, Futures Research Methodology, Version 2.0, Editors Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
© 2008 Bruce LaDuke
 T. Irene Sanders - Chaos/Complexity

Emergent
Mathematical Social
Interaction
of Agents
Understanding of the System

Complexity Complexity
Outside System

Design

Engineering Systems
Approach Thinking

Rules Heuristics
Remove Ambiguity Allow Ambiguity

Source: New Science, by T. Irene Sanders Means of Controlling the System

© 2008 Bruce LaDuke

 Futuring Methods
Mathematical Complexity Social Complexity
Agent
Emergent

Modeling Causal Layered Analysis

Interactive
Structural Scenarios
Analysis Participatory Methods

Decision Modeling

Engineering Approach Systems Thinking

Cross-Impact Analysis
Trend
Design

Multiple Analysis
Futures
Statistical Perspectives
Modeling Wheel

Normative Delphi
Text Mining Forecasting
SOFI Index

Rules Heuristics
Source: New Science, by T. Irene Sanders

© 2008 Bruce LaDuke

Transformational Leadership
Emergent

Mathematical Social
Complexity Complexity
Transformational
Leadership
Design

Engineering Systems
Approach Thinking

Rules Heuristics

© 2008 Bruce LaDuke