The vulnerability of road networks

in a cost-benefit perspective

Jan Husdal
Molde University College
10 January 2005

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2005

Washington, DC, 9-13 January 2005 1
Outline
Formalities
Biographical note
The Background
Early beginnings
Problem statement
Example/illustration
The Research
Reliability and vulnerability
Risk and vulnerability
Project evaluation and vulnerability
The cost of vulnerability and reliability
Application
Recent research
Conclusion
Future research

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 Early beginnings




 
 

 


 
        


       








 

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Problem statement I - issue
Road networks are vulnerable to many (external) circumstances
Additional costs incur when people, travellers or goods do not reach
their destination in space or time as intended.
Delays
Diversions/detours
Late delivery, non-delivery, early delivery
Just-in-time
Perishable goods
This is particularly an issue in sparse, non-congested, rural networks,
networks
vulnerability is here more an issue than reliability (travel time variability)
because the network is so essential for access to community services for the
local population and access to markets for the local businesses.
Vulnerability of a transport network
The network’s susceptibility to failure (disruption, degradation).
Reliability of a transport network
The probability that the network functions, or rather: does not fail to function.
Reliability = Benefit ---- Vulnerability = Cost

What is the (expected) vulnerability cost of using a particular route (or

link on a route)?

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Problem statement II - purpose
To add reliability and vulnerability to the current project
evaluation procedures

To evaluate the cost of remaining vulnerable or non-reliable

against the assumed benefit of becoming less vulnerable or
more reliable with the proposed project.

To aggregate a vulnerability index for a road network

These arguments should come in addition to the quantifiable

costs and benefits of a project as prescribed by current
evaluation methods - they may, however, be in opposition to
the decision supported by traditional cost-benefit analysis.

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Example The service area of the hospitals in Molde and
Kristiansund, on the north-western coast of Norway, is
marked by a number of potential vulnerabilities: F=Ferry,
CW=Causeway, ST= Subsea Tunnel, T=Tunnel,
M=Mountain Pass, B=Bridge

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Related research – RISIT (2002-2007)
The transport sector in
general has very limited
experience with regard to
risk based management

Cost-benefit analyses and

environmental impact
analyses are being used, but
risk analyses and risk
acceptance criteria are not.

Risk and vulnerability as a

concept and as a
management tool has no
marked tradition among the
Norwegian road authorities
or amongst the international
road authorities
Aven et al. (2004)

www.program.forskningsradet.no/risit/ 7
Reliability and Vulnerability
Reliability describes the operability of the network
under varying strenuous conditions
(i.e. the ability to continue to function).
Vulnerability describes the non-operability of the network
under varying strenuous conditions
(i.e. the susceptibility to fail to function).
A reliable network exhibits a high degree of operability
as expressed by serviceability, accessibility, and non-variability
under most circumstances,
due to the presence of redundancy, robustness, and resilience.
A vulnerable network exhibits a low degree of operability
as expressed by non-serviceability, non-accessibility, and variability
under certain circumstances,
due to the lack of redundancy, robustness, and resilience.
Vulnerability = Non-Reliability
(under said certain circumstances) 8
Risk and Vulnerability

R=CxP
R = Risk
C = Consequence
P = Probability

R = V(ec) x P(ec)
V = Vulnerability to the occurrence of an
external circumstance (ec)
or threat
P = Probability of an
external circumstance
occurring

Risk matrix.
The threshold indicates the
risk acceptance level 9
Project evaluation and Vulnerability
Some of the elements that project evaluation procedures should take explicitly into account
in order to incorporate considerations of vulnerability are the following:

The probability and impact of failure of a given network, link or route,

given external circumstances or strenuous conditions
The probability of the external circumstances occurring
The robustness of the system
the probability that the system will continue to function
even if a threat eventuates at a vulnerable point
The time and cost to repair the system
if the threat occurs
and the system fails at its vulnerable point
The costs to the general economy of such a failure
goods and passengers not getting to their destinations, or getting there late,
transportation carriers being forced to use expensive detours, etc.
The contribution of a given project
to improving the robustness
and hence reliability of the system
The degree of risk aversion that should be applied
in deciding what weight to place on the risk that has been identified
(level of threat x level of vulnerability)

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The cost of vulnerability

Vulnerability

The societal costs of vulnerability versus reliability. A - current state, B – high investment
(new road), C – low investment (upgrading existing road), D - optimum 11
Recent research I
Bottlenecks in freight transport by road
Developing a multi-criteria approach
in assessing non-monetary effects
of nature-related bottlenecks

V = Vulnerability
V= CiIi C = Category weight
I = Impact score

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Recent research II
Case 1: Oppdal – Kristiansund
(lower right to upper left)

Left: Original route

Right: Detour + 2.5 hrs + 135km (75mi)
Estimated cost of disruption:
NOK 900,000/year for heavy vehicles
($ 150,000/year)
Non-toll road diverted to toll road + ferry

Case 2: Dombås – Molde

(lower right to upper left)

Left: Original route

Right: Detour + 1.5 hrs + 80km (50 mi)
Estimated cost of disruption:
NOK 80,000/year for heavy vehicles
($13,300/year)
Toll road + ferry diverted to non-toll road

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Recent research III

S= wi ci

Rv70 Oppdal-Kristiansund:
0,2x4 + 0,3x5 + 0,1x2 + 0,1x2
+ 0,1x2 + 0,1x3 = 3,2
non-toll > toll

E136/Rv64 Dombås-Molde:
0,2x5 + 0,3x4 + 0,1x2 + 0,1x2
+ 0,1x1 + 0,1x2 = 2,9
toll > non-toll

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Future research
To establish a practice-oriented methodology for aggregating a
vulnerability index for a road network,
network and the costs
associated with various vulnerabilities.

To find the vulnerability cost of transport on a particular route or

link on a route.

To find the vulnerability cost of location in relation to the

neighbouring transport network.

How do transport-dependent entities adapt to

transport-related uncertainties?
uncertainties
Suppliers – producers – customers
JIT, inventory, lead times, scheduling, routing etc.
Stated preference surveys to establish values and weights
Case studies of selected firms to determine the costs of uncertainties

Develop a multi-criteria evaluation of both monetary non-

monetary impacts of vulnerability
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Thank You…

Questions?

Source: www.avisa-hordaland.no
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Examples of issues

Critical paths
Availability of alternative routes
Cost of rebuilding
Closures and downtime
Hazardous materials transport
Traffic safety
Operations and maintenance
Emergency preparedness
Presence and probability of hazards

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