MEMORANDUM October 11, 2013 TO: FROM: RE: Interested Parties Jim Williams, Public Policy Polling More

House polls show GOP in even greater trouble in shutdowns wake Twelve new surveys conducted this week in GOP-held House districts indicate that an even greater number of Republican incumbents are in danger of being voted out of office next year thanks to the government shutdown. Public Policy Polling has now surveyed a total of 36 House districts in two weeks, and the results show Republican incumbents are in serious danger in 29 out of the 36. Democrats must net 17 seats to reclaim the House. The 12 surveys conducted this week and commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action show Republican incumbents trailing generic Democratic challengers in five districts, and tied in a sixth. After respondents are informed that Republican incumbents supported the shutdown, Democrats expand their lead to eight districts. This means that of 36 GOP-held districts surveyed over the last two weeks, generic Democrats lead in 22 before information about the shutdown is provided, and in 29 after respondents learn Republican incumbents supported the shutdown. Make no mistake: Republicans are in jeopardy of losing the House in 2014. To be sure, as Stuart Rothenberg and others have noted over the last week, these polls are a snapshot of opinion at one point in time and hardly guarantee electoral outcomes 13 months from now. Democrats must recruit strong candidates and run effective campaigns in individual districts if they are to capitalize on the vulnerability revealed by these surveys. And they must maintain a strong national advantage to net 17 seats and win back the House. But given these results, and other national surveys that show more Americans now believe in Sasquatch than approve of Republicans, one would have to almost be willfully ignorant of the facts to argue that a wave election in which Democrats retake the House of Representatives is out of reach. The districts surveyed this week in which a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to

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any information being provided about the shutdown are: CA-25, FL-27, MI-06, PA-06, WA-08 The additional districts in which a generic Democratic challenger leads after voters are told the Republican incumbent supported a shutdown are: MI-08, NJ-03, VA-10 The districts in which the incumbent Republican leads throughout the survey are: NJ-02, NY-02, WA-03, WI-01 These 12 snap polls of registered voters were conducted on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of this week with sample sizes ranging from 600-700 voters. One other note: one of the incumbents whose district we surveyed last week, Rep. Bill Young of Florida, announced this week he will retire, so FL-13 will now be an open seat. Click here to view a table with results from these 12 most recent polls. Click here to view a table with the results of the 24 polls we conducted last week, and here for an October 6 memo with more information about those previous polls. Full results from each of the 12 districts surveyed this week follow: CA-25 Results FL-27 Results MI-06 Results MI-08 Results NJ-02 Results NJ-03 Results NY-02 Results PA-06 Results VA-10 Results WA-03 Results WA-08 Results WI-01 Results
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Public Policy Polling 2912 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com