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Oct 2009 Unemployment Update

Oct 2009 Unemployment Update

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Published by kettle1

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Published by: kettle1 on Oct 02, 2009
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09/18/2010

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Kettle1
0100020003000400050006000
        1        9        8        0        1        9        8        1        1        9        8        2        1        9        8        3        1        9        8        4        1        9        8       5        1        9        8        6        1        9        8       7        1        9        8        8        1        9        8        9        1        9        9        0        1        9        9        1        1        9        9        2        1        9        9        3        1        9        9        4        1        9        9       5        1        9        9        6        1        9        9       7        1        9        9        8        1        9        9        9        2        0        0        0        2        0        0        1        2        0        0        2        2        0        0        3        2        0        0        4        2        0        0       5        2        0        0        6        2        0        0       7        2        0        0        8        2        0        0        9
Unemployed: 27 Weeks and Over
(Thousands)
051015202530
        1        9        8        0        1        9        8        1        1        9        8        2        1        9        8        3        1        9        8        4        1        9        8       5        1        9        8        6        1        9        8       7        1        9        8        8        1        9        8        9        1        9        9        0        1        9        9        1        1        9        9        2        1        9        9        3        1        9        9        4        1        9        9       5        1        9        9        6        1        9        9       7        1        9        9        8        1        9        9        9        2        0        0        0        2        0        0        1        2        0        0        2        2        0        0        3        2        0        0        4        2        0        0       5        2        0        0        6        2        0        0       7        2        0        0        8        2        0        0        9
Unemployment length
Ave Weeks Unemployed Median Weeks Unemployed
 
 
Kettle1
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
        1        9        8        0        1        9        8        1        1        9        8        2        1        9        8        3        1        9        8        4        1        9        8       5        1        9        8        6        1        9        8       7        1        9        8        8        1        9        8        9        1        9        9        0        1        9        9        1        1        9        9        2        1        9        9        3        1        9        9        4        1        9        9       5        1        9        9        6        1        9        9       7        1        9        9        8        1        9        9        9        2        0        0        0        2        0        0        1        2        0        0        2        2        0        0        3        2        0        0        4        2        0        0       5        2        0        0        6        2        0        0       7        2        0        0        8        2        0        0        9
% of Unemployed for Greater Than 27 Weeks
-50%0%50%100%150%200%
        1        9        8        0        1        9        8        1        1        9        8        2        1        9        8        3        1        9        8        4        1        9        8       5        1        9        8        6        1        9        8       7        1        9        8        8        1        9        8        9        1        9        9        0        1        9        9        1        1        9        9        2        1        9        9        3        1        9        9        4        1        9        9       5        1        9        9        6        1        9        9       7        1        9        9        8        1        9        9        9        2        0        0        0        2        0        0        1        2        0        0        2        2        0        0        3        2        0        0        4        2        0        0       5        2        0        0        6        2        0        0       7        2        0        0        8        2        0        0        9
Unemployed: 27 Weeks and Over
YOY %
 
 
Kettle1
Assumption and Data Sources:The 2008 employment projection was based on a 40/60 split between the growth phase and the recovery phase as detailed in the tablebelow. The historical trend tends towards a 60/40 split, but given the leveraged based nature of this recession I felt a 40/60 split wasmore likely to be representative.RecessionDuration(L)HighPoint (H)Decline(D)Growth Phase(H/L)RecoveryPhase (D/L)
(Months)
1944 28 16 10 57.1% 35.7%1949 16 10 6 62.5% 37.5%1953 15 9 6 60.0% 40.0%1957 16 8 8 50.0% 50.0%1960 10 6 4 60.0% 40.0%1970 9 3 6 33.3% 66.7%1974 14 8 6 57.1% 42.9%1980 5 3 2 60.0% 40.0%1981 20 12 8 60.0% 40.0%1990 17 6 11 35.3% 64.7%2001 29 9 20 31.0% 69.0%BLS Data: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm2008p(1) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of july 20092008p(2) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of Dec 20092008p(3) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of June 2010

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