Oct 2009 Unemployment Update

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Kettle1

0100020003000400050006000

1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

Unemployed: 27 Weeks and Over

(Thousands)

051015202530

1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

Unemployment length

Ave Weeks Unemployed Median Weeks Unemployed

Kettle1

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

% of Unemployed for Greater Than 27 Weeks

-50%0%50%100%150%200%

1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9

Unemployed: 27 Weeks and Over

YOY %

∆∆∆∆

Kettle1

Assumption and Data Sources:The 2008 employment projection was based on a 40/60 split between the growth phase and the recovery phase as detailed in the tablebelow. The historical trend tends towards a 60/40 split, but given the leveraged based nature of this recession I felt a 40/60 split wasmore likely to be representative.RecessionDuration(L)HighPoint (H)Decline(D)Growth Phase(H/L)RecoveryPhase (D/L)

(Months)

1944 28 16 10 57.1% 35.7%1949 16 10 6 62.5% 37.5%1953 15 9 6 60.0% 40.0%1957 16 8 8 50.0% 50.0%1960 10 6 4 60.0% 40.0%1970 9 3 6 33.3% 66.7%1974 14 8 6 57.1% 42.9%1980 5 3 2 60.0% 40.0%1981 20 12 8 60.0% 40.0%1990 17 6 11 35.3% 64.7%2001 29 9 20 31.0% 69.0%BLS Data: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm2008p(1) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of july 20092008p(2) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of Dec 20092008p(3) assumes Total Non-Farm Employment peak decline on a YOY basis as of June 2010

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