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EMC Research $15 Polling Memo Final

EMC Research $15 Polling Memo Final

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Published by Chs Blog
Min wage
Min wage

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Published by: Chs Blog on Feb 17, 2014
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02/17/2014

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From: EMC Research Date: February 10, 2014 RE: Recent polling on $15 Minimum Wage
About EMC Research
EMC Research is a leading public opinion and market research firm with offices in Seattle (WA), Oakland (CA), Portland (OR), and Columbus (OH). Founded in 1989, the company conducts opinion and market research for a variety of corporate, public agency, political, and not for profit clients throughout the country.
Methodology
This memo is based on a telephone survey of 805 likely November 2014 voters in Seattle conducted January 14
th
 
 –
 22
nd
, 2014. Participants were screened to ensure they are voters and were asked about their participation in the upcoming November 2014 elections; 90% said they are certain to participate, and an additional 10% say they will probably participate. The margin of error for the overall results is ± 3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. The survey was conducted with 115 interviews in each new City Council District (± 9.1 MOE per district) and then
weighted back to reflect each district’s proportional representation of the City.
 The respondent profile was checked to ensure consistency with Seattle voter demographics and historical polling for age, self-identified political Party, and geography.
Key Findings
Optimism in Seattle is on the rise; the right direction figure is at a five year high.
 
The right direction/wrong track figures, typically seen as a measure of overall confidence in the economy, personal standing, and direction of the City, are at their highest point since 2009.
63% 52% 54% 43% 42% 18% 16% 12% 14% 19% 19% 31% 34% 43% 39%
Jan-14 Sep-13 May-13 May-11 May-09
Seattle Right Direction/Wrong Track
Riht Direction DK Wron Track
 
 
Likely November 2014 Seattle voters overwhelmingly support (68%) a $15 minimum wage.
 
The complete text of the question is
: “A proposal is being
considered to set the minimum wage in the City of
Seattle at $15 an hour”. Only a quarter (25%) oppose, and the remaining 7% are undecided.
 
 
Support is a strong to overwhelming majority across all major subgroups including the new City Council districts and all vote history groups. The only exception is among self-identified Republicans.
 Adding one or more of a series of items to make minimum wage legislation more encompassing of other employee-related issues increases support.
 
Every one of the items tested that could be added on to $15 minimum wage legislation serves to make the legislation stronger, extending support beyond initial support for $15 on its own (68%).
68% 76% 75% 74% 71% 68% 60% 58% 77% 57% 25% 72% 64% 25% 14% 23% 17% 20% 25% 32% 37% 18% 31% 70% 22% 28% Overall U Dist/Wall'ford/Ravenna (4) Northgate/N. Seattle (5) S. Seattle (2) Cap Hill (3) Ballard/Greenwood (6) QA/Dwntown (7) W. Seattle (1) Dem Ind Rep 3/4 + <2/4
Initial Support
Support Oppose
71% 63% 54% 56% 47% 47% 17% 23% 26% 23% 29% 26%
88% 86% 80% 79% 76% 73%
Including requirements that tips go to workers, so employers can't steal tips from the workers that earn them Including enforcement rules and fines to ensure that workers are actually being paid what the law requires Paid paternity/maternity & family/medical, paid child care to ensure workers can take time for family/medical needs Closing loopholes in city's sick leave law so workers can take care of their own or their family's medical needs Tying the minimum wage to inflation Require employers give workers more hours/full time, so employers don't hire part time workers to avoid benefits
Potential $15 Add Ons
Strongly Support Somewhat Support
SUPPORT
 
 
Support for a $15 minimum wage solidifies after voters hear about potential add-ons and a series of agree/disagree statements in support of and opposition to increasing the minimum wage to $15.
 
After add-ons, voters are asked to agree or disagree with a series of statements about increasing the minimum wage to $15. These statements mimic statements made by those in support and opposition to increasing the minimum wage to $15.
 
Following these two sections, voters are re-asked the initial question
: “I’d like to ask again, do you
(support/oppose)
setting Seattle’s minimum wage at $15 an hour?” Overall support is
statistically unchanged, but the intensity of support increases (From 35% to 40% Strongly Support).
82% 79% 75% 75% 71% 69% 68% 51% 45% 43% 40% 38% 13% 15% 17% 18% 21% 22% 24% 36% 46% 41% 50% 53%
Raising the minimum wage ensures more families can make ends meet and get ahead Increasing the minimum wage is the right thing to do If workers in Seattle earn higher wages, our entire community will benefit The current minimum wage is too low A higher minimum wage helps local businesses because more workers making more means they will have money to spend Raising the minimum wage is about putting public good ahead of corporate greed With rising income inequality, raising the minimum wage is a simple issue of fairness Increasing the minimum wage will hurt local small, minority owned, and family owned businesses Increasing min wage to $15 will hurt consumers, will lead to price increases on food & a wide range of other products people can't avoid buying Raising the minimum wage so drastically here in Seattle will result in too many unintended consequences Raising min wage this much will be a job killer & cause many businesses to leave Seattle, & consumers to look for lower prices outside Seattle People earn higher wages thru skills, education & experience. Artificially high min wage forces biz to overpay those who don't have skills & exprnc
Agree/Disagree Statements
Agree Disagree
35% 40% 33% 29% 11% 10% 14% 15%
Initial After add-ons & Agree/Disagree
Increased Support Intensity for $15
Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose

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