1AC Plan Text

The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of companies based in the United States to participate in the development of Cubas energy resources.

1AC Inherency
CONTENTION ONE IS INHERENCY Now is the key time to modify the embargo Cuba is facing a crossroads but will commit to drilling for oil
Helman 11(http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/04/06/cubas-oil-drilling-plan-is-agreat-reason-to-end-u-s-embargo/; Cuba's Oil Drilling Plan Is A Great Reason To End U.S. Embargo; Christopher Helman[Forbes staff writer]) The U.S. economic embargo against Cuba is clearly a failure and now that the Cold War is over its continuation has only served to force Cuba into the arms of Venezuelas Hugo Chavez, who provides Cuba with 100,000 bpd of cut-price oil through Pdvsa. Now is the time to lift the embargo, or at least ease it to allow U.S. oil companies and drilling contractors to compete for drilling prospects in Cuba. Its a no-brainer that we would rather have Chevron drilling 100 miles off Florida than Gazprom or Pdvsa. Plus, the U.S. offshore drilling industry needs the businesswhich would be substantial if estimates of a possible 20 billion barrels come to pass. Though BOEMRE has finally begun to issue new drilling permits in the U.S. part of the Gulf, the pace of activity remains glacial. It makes no economic or even political sense to prevent American capital, know-how, and newfound emphasis on deepwater safety from being deployed in Cuba. President Obamas Interior Secretary Ken Salazar met with officials in
Mexico Monday to discuss the creation of a gold standard on drilling in the Gulf. But any agreement would be more like a lead standard unless Cuba were included.

And, other countries will beat the US there US must act in response to inevitable drilling
Padgett 12 (Tim Padgett, Jan. 27, 2012. The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms
Length Over Spill Prevention. Times. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)
On Christmas Eve, a massive, Chinese-made

maritime oil rig, the Scarabeo 9, arrived at Trinidad and Tobago for inspection. The Spanish oil company Repsol YPF, which keeps regional headquarters in Trinidad, ferried it to the Caribbean to perform deep-ocean drilling off Cuba whose communist government believes as much as 20 billion barrels of
crude may lie near the island's northwest coast. But it wasn't Cuban authorities who came aboard the Scarabeo 9 to give it the once-over: officials from the U.S. Coast Guard and Interior Department did, even though the rig won't be operating in U.S. waters. On any other occasion that might have raised the ire of the Cubans, who consider Washington their imperialist enemy. But the U.S. examination of the Scarabeo 9, which Repsol agreed to and Cuba abided, was part of an unusual choreography of cooperation between the two countries. Their otherwise bitter cold-war feud (they haven't had diplomatic relations since 1961) is best known for a 50-year-long trade embargo and history's scariest nuclear standoff. Now, Cuba's

commitment to offshore oil exploration drilling may start this weekend raises a specter that haunts both nations: an oil spill in the Florida Straits like the BP calamity that tarred the nearby Gulf of Mexico two years ago and left $40 billion in U.S. damages. The Straits, an equally vital body of water that's home to some of the world's most precious coral reefs, separates Havana and Key West, Florida, by a mere 90 miles. As a result, the U.S. has tacitly loosened its embargo against Cuba to give firms like Repsol easier access to the U.S. equipment they need to help avoid or contain possible spills. "Preventing drilling off Cuba better protects our interests than preparing for [a disaster] does," U.S. Senator Bill Nelson of Florida tells TIME, noting the U.S. would prefer to [cant] stop the Cuban drilling but can't. "But the two are not mutually exclusive, and that's why we should aim to do both." Cuba meanwhile has tacitly agreed to ensure that its safety measures meet U.S. standards (not that U.S. standards proved all that golden during the 2010 BP disaster) and is letting unofficial U.S. delegations in to discuss the

precautions being taken by Havana and the international oil companies it is contracting. No Cuban official
would discuss the matter, but Dan Whittle, senior attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund in New York, who was part of one recent delegation, says the Cubans "seem very motivated to do the right thing." It's also the right business thing to do. Cuba's threadbare economy President Ral Castro currently has to lay off more than 500,000 state workers is acutely energy-dependent on allies like Venezuela, which ships the island 120,000 barrels of oil per day. So Havana is eager to drill for the major offshore reserves geologists discovered eight years ago (which the U.S. Geological Survey estimates at closer to 10 billion bbl.). Cuba

has signed or is negotiating leases with Repsol and companies from eight other nations Norway, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brazil, Venezuela, Angola and China for 59 drilling blocks inside a 43,000-sq.-mile (112,000 sq km) zone. Eventually, the government hopes to extract half a million bpd or more. A serious oil spill could scuttle those drilling operations especially since Cuba hasn't the technology, infrastructure or means, like a clean-up fund similar to the $1 billion the U.S. keeps on reserve, to confront such an emergency. And there is another big economic anxiety: Cuba's $2 billion tourism industry. "The dilemma for Cuba is that as much as they want the oil, they care as much if not more about their ocean resources," says Billy Causey, southeast regional director for the U.S. National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration's marine sanctuary program. Cuba's pristine beaches and reefs attract sunbathers and scuba divers the world over, and a

quarter of its coastal environment is set aside as protected. So is much of coastal Florida, where tourism generates $60 billion annually which is why the state keeps oil rigs out of its waters. The Florida Keys lie as close as 50 miles from where Repsol is drilling; and they run roughly parallel to the 350-milelong (560 km) Florida Reef Tract (FRT), the world's third largest barrier reef and one of its most valuable ocean eco-systems. The FRT is already under assault from global warming, ocean acidification and overfishing of symbiotic species like parrotfish that keep coral pruned of corrosive algae.

If a spill were to damage the FRT, which draws $2 billion from tourism each year and supports 33,000 jobs, "it would be a catastrophic event," says David Vaughan, director of Florida's private Mote Marine Laboratory. Which means America has its own dilemma. As much as the U.S. would like to thwart Cuban petro-profits Cuban-American leaders like U.S. Representative and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Miami say the oil will throw a lifeline to the Castro dictatorship it needs to care as much if not more about its own environment. Because fewer than a tenth of the Scarabeo 9's components were made in America, Washington can't wield the
embargo cudgel and fine Repsol, which has interests in the U.S., for doing business with Cuba. (Most of the other firms don't have U.S. interests.) Nor

can it in good conscience use the embargo in this case to keep U.S. companies from offering spill prevention/containment hardware and services to Repsol and other drilling contractors.

1AC Oil Spills Advantage

ADVANTAGE 1 IS OIL SPILLS Were on the brink US-based parts are crucial to immediately respond to spills any spill in the status quo would be catastrophic
Almeida 12 (BY ROB ALMEIDA ON MAY 18, 2012 Rob Almeida is Partner and Chief Marketing Officer at gCaptain Drilling Off Cuba, and How the Embargo Could be Very Costly for the US http://gcaptain.com/drilling-cuba-embargo-badly/ )
This was the subject of last weeks panel discussion at the Carnegie Center for International Policy in Washington, DC.There

is no standing agreement with Cuba on what to do in case of a blowout, says Wayne Smith, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and director of the Cuba Project.Nobody is predicting a catastrophe, the panel reiterated, and reports indicate that Cuban drillers on board the Scarabeo 9 are being exceedingly cautious, but theres no substitute for being prepared in case disaster strikes. Prior to
commencing drilling operations, Repsol contracted Helix Energy Solutions Group to provide immediate well intervention and other subsea services in case of well issues.Its a great start, and Helix certainly proved their capabilities during the 2010 Macondo well blowout and oil spill, however Cuba

is under a full economic and diplomatic embargo with massive implications. This means:1) The Scarabeo 9s blowout preventer, the most crucial piece of well control equipment on board the rig was made by a US company. The trade embargo prohibits OEM spare parts or repair items to be sold to Repsol. Also, technical expertise from the OEM cannot be provided.2) The capping stacks which have been created by Helix ESG, BP, the MWCC and others, are not authorized for use in Cuban waters. This means, if an uncontrolled blowout does occur, these essential piece of equipment will not be available until authorization is given and a delivery method determined.This is a significant issue considering
the BP capping stack weighs somewhere around a half million pounds. Reports indicate there are no cranes in Cuba capable of lifting such a piece of gear that massive on to a ship.3) The

deepwater drilling experts in the US are not authorized to provide assistance to Cuba in case of a disaster.4) All the training programs that have been developed post-Macondo are not available for Cuban nationals. In fact, any
training that will result in a professional license or certification is off limits to Cubans.) Tyvek suits, the essential work-wear for HAZMAT cleanup, are not authorized to be brought into Cuba due to supposed military applications.In additionThe Scarabeo 9 was classed by DNV on 19 August 2011 in Singapore, and she is due for her 1-year checkup on 19 August 2012, with a 3 month window on either side of th at date. As expected, DNV has told us that there will be no US-based employees involved.

Bilateral relations between Cuba and the US are key to solving for oil spills regional expertise is the only way to solve Boom 12 (BRIAN M. BOOM, Brian M. Boom is the director of the Caribbean Biodiversity Program and
Bassett Maguire Curator of Botany at the New York Botanical Garden. 08/14/12. http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/article/2012/biodiversity-without-borders) The most urgent environmental problems requiring bilateral action are broadly classified as disasters both those that occur naturally and those that are man-made. Hurricanes are the clearest examples of shared natural disasters. During the twentieth century, 167
hurricanes struck the U.S. mainland. Of these, 62 were major (categories 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). During the same period, 36 hurricanes, half of which were major, made landfall over Cuba. Because many hurricanesKatrina and Ike being twenty-first century examplesstrike both countries, there exists a shared need after such disasters to respond to the negative effects, including environmental problems created by rain, wind, and storm surges. Most major hurricanes occurring in the Caribbean during the past century have resulted in documented extensive perturbations of shallow-water marine ecosystems, particularly to coral reefs, seagrass beds, and coastal mangroves.2 Aside from physical damage to such ecosystems from more turbulent water, hurricanes can also negatively impact water quality. On land, hurricane damage to ecosystems can be even more severe than in the ocean. For example, damaged native vegetation will possibly be more prone to colonization by exotic, noxious species such as Australian pine and Brazilian pepper.3 While Cuban and U.S. scientists have shared motivation to

. Man-made environmental disasters, such as oil and natural gas leaks, can likewise be of shared concern to the Cuban and U.S. governments. The Gulf of Mexico is a rich source of oil and gas and will remain so for decades to come.
assess, monitor, and remediate the marine and terrestrial ecosystems that are damaged by hurricanes, they currently cannot do so According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there exist nearly 4,000 active oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico off the U.S. coastline. Cuba also has plans

Given the near- and long-term implications of gas, oil, and chemical dispersants on the Gulf of Mexicos biodiversity, it is imperative for the economic and ecological wellbeing of both Cuba and the United States that exploration is pursued with enhanced safeguards to avoid the mistakes of past disasters, such as the dramatic explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil
for new oil and gas platforms off its northern coast.4

rig. While Cuba and the United States are signatories to several international protocols for cooperation on containment of oil spills, there is scant cooperation between them on this frontalthough there were at least some low-level meetings between the countries after the Deepwater Horizon blowout.5 Given the potential
of currents in the Gulf of Mexico to disperse spills from off the coast of one country to the waters and shores of the other, there were ongoing concerns about the possible reach of the disaster. Fortunately, relative to its potential, the Deepwater Horizon spill remained mostly contained. However, with increased drilling in the area, including deep wells, more than luck will be

. Even if oil and gas leaks or spills are restricted to Cuban or U.S. waters, the negative environmental impacts can be important regionally. The two nations shared marine ecosystem is the foundation for the mid Atlantic and Gulf Stream fisheries. Many important commercial and sport fish species breed and feed in Cuban waters. So destruction of Cuban mangroves and coral reefs will impact stocks of species such as snapper, grouper, and tuna, along with myriad other animals, plants, and microbes that spend different parts of their life cycles in the territorial waters of each country.6Given that urgent environmental problems can arise rapidly and harm the economic and ecological health of the United States and Cuba, it is imperative that there should be a mechanism for rapid, joint response to these shared threats.
needed to avert future disasters

Timeframe immediate- oil spill would reach Florida in 5 days

Weisberg, 12 (Robert H. Weisberg, Special to the Times, Professor, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island, 1975. Dr. Weisberg is an
experimental physical oceanographer engaged in ocean circulation and ocean-atmosphere interaction studies in the tropics, on continental shelves, and in estuaries. As director of the USF Ocean Circulation Group and co-director of the USF Coastal Ocean Modeling and Prediction System his research presently emphasizes in-situ measurements, analyses, and models of the West Florida Shelf circulation and the interactions between the shelf and the estuaries, February 4, 2012, http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/columns/tracking-a-potential-cuba-oilspill/1213878) LA Numerous articles continue to be written about oil exploration off the coast of Cuba. Some federal officials, while discussing potential spill mitigation, claim that the swift currents of the Gulf Stream will protect South Florida by carrying most oil away before it could hit the beaches. Is this correct, or might a threat to South Florida's beaches exist, given a drilling mishap? The Gulf Stream indeed is swift, but if it isolated Florida from Cuba, then how did so many Cuban rafters reach the shoreline between Miami and Palm Beach over the past 50 years? To address this and the potential for oil to reach the Florida coastline, it is important to consider the Gulf Stream in its entirety. There are two primary components of flow. The first, driven by the large-scale winds over the Atlantic Ocean, is geostrophic. The second is driven by local winds. Neglecting eddies, the geostrophic part alone would tend to isolate Cuba from Florida because it would be difficult for surface oil picked up on the Cuban side of the Gulf Stream to traverse across the region of maximum speed to the Florida side. However, the local wind-driven part can achieve this. The geostrophic part is a balance between two forces, the pressure difference across the Gulf Stream and the Coriolis force by the Earth's rotation. The result is a flow that nearly parallels the coastline. The local wind driven part is also a balance between two forces, the friction of the wind on the sea surface and the Coriolis force by the Earth's rotation. The result is a net transport of water directed to the right of the wind. This Ekman transport, named after the discovering scientist, explains why sea level is higher than the normal high tide level on Florida's East Coast under northerly winds and lower than the normal high tide level under southerly winds. The reason is that water under the influence of northerly winds is driven toward Florida's East Coast. The converse occurs along Florida's West Coast. Thus flooding of low-lying areas on the East Coast tends to occur after the passage of strong weather fronts when the winds are northerly, whereas this tends to occur on the West Coast in advance of the front when the winds are southerly. Given this conceptual discussion, it

is possible to simulate the

movement of oil that may be spilled on the surface using a computer model that contains these physics (geostrophic and Ekman
motions). One particularly suited for the task is run by the Navy along with academic partners. By downloading the modeled velocity fields and inserting virtual particles indicative of surface oil, my associates and I can track where the oil might go in time and space. For illustrative purposes, we used January 2012. Neutrally buoyant

particles were distributed about an exploration site claimed to be 22 miles north of Havana, and new particles were seeded every three hours to mimic a continual release of oil. Two examples are provided, one for a period of time when virtual particles encountered East Coast beaches about five to seven days after release , the other for a period of time when they did not. The differences are due to
the local winds during these week-long simulation intervals. Recognizing that weather fronts regularly transit the Florida peninsula, with southerlies on the leading side and northerlies on the trailing side, and that the interval between successive fronts is days to a week or so,

we

can expect that a prolonged spill would likely bring oil to South Florida beaches . Regardless of these
simulations, simply recall the tar on South Florida beaches in the 1970s before the Clean Water Act restricted offshore bilge pumping. Whereas a vibrant economy requires energy, risks

are inherent to oil exploration and production. Such risks increase with deepwater drilling in swift currents, and the swift Gulf Stream regularly transits the deepwater region north of Cuba. It is unfortunate that we were unable to surmount the political and diplomatic issues pertaining to the present
oil exploration in Cuban waters because once the oil potential was identified years ago, drilling was inevitable. Without readily achievable energy alternatives to hydrocarbons, other than nuclear, it is ever more important for the United States to adopt a sound energy policy.

Cuban oil spill trashes the Florida ecosystem takes out key coral reefs and mangroves that are critical to biodiversity Florida is a unique hotspot for this collapse
Emily A. Peterson Daniel J. Whittle, J.D. and Douglas N. Rader, Ph.D December 2012 Bridging the Gulf Finding Common Ground on Environmental and Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba, http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf If a spill were to occur in Cuban waters, marine and coastal resources of the United States, Cuba, and the Bahamas could be placed at significant risk . Fisheries, coastal tourism, recreation, and other natural resources-based
enterprises and activities in the region could experience adverse impacts on the scale of weeks to years, or even decades. Multiple factors including the type and amount of oil spilled, the environment in which the oil spilled, and prevailing weather and ocean current conditions would play key factors in determining the extent and gravity of a spills impact.45 In

Cuba, marine and coastal habitats could suffer substantial long-term harm which could degrade , in turn, entire populations and habitats downstream in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico . According to Dr. John W. Tunnell, Jr., associate director of the Harte Research Institute and an expert on the Gulf of Mexico marine environment, the primary three habitats at risk on Cubas North Coast near the area where exploration is occurring are coral reefs , seagrass beds, and lush mangrove forests .46 These habitats are found throughout the region, but in greatest abundance
in the Archipelago Sabana-Camaguey and the Archipelago Los Colorados, where they provide breeding, nursery, and feeding habitats for commercial fish species, including grouper, snapper, and grunts. If chemical dispersants were used as part of the clean-up effort, they could reduce impacts on fauna for which oiling per se is the greatest threat (e.g. birds) but also add additional toxicity, as well as alter the transport and ecological fate of oil constituents moving through the water column and then into the air or back towards the bottom.

Dispersed oil could have greater deleterious effect on Cubas coral reefs, which are fragile, slow-growing, and have low resilience to physical and chemical stresses.47 Like salt marshes, coastal mangrove swamps are also
difficult to clean up in the aftermath of an oil spill, and mangroves can die within a week to several months as a result of oil exposure.48

Reduced from their formerly healthy, vibrant state, such important habitats could lose their ability to support
the fisheries and

marine life that depend on them .

Coral collapse destroys the ecosystem, leading to extinction

Robin Kundis Craig (Associate Prof Law, Indiana U School Law) 2003
Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems, but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. For example, besides significant tourism values - the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide, worldwide - coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations, services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. n856 Waste

treatment is another significant, nonextractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. n857 More generally, " ocean ecosystems play a major role in the global geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms , carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur, as well as other less abundant but
necessary elements." n858 In

a very real and direct sense, therefore, human degradation of marine ecosystems

impairs the planet's ability to support life . Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. Current evidence shows that, in general, an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity, "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity . [*265] Most ecologists agree that the complexity
of interactions and degree

of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any

This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also

other marine environment.

complex and that many otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. n860 Thus,

maintaining and restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they provide. Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of
marine disasters, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. n861 Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness. However, economic value, or economic value equivalents, should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit." n862 At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea - and about the actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems. The United States has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans, but we now know that such harm is occurring - even though we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. Ecosystems

like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can - especially when the United States
has within its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world. We may not know much about the sea, but we do know this much:

if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves, and we will take

most of

the biosphere with us .

1AC Cuban Economy Advantage

ADVANTAGE 2 IS CUBAN ECONOMY Cubas transition to capitalism is at a crossroads US action within the next 18 months is key to stabilize and solidify reforms
AAP 7/24/13 (Australian Associated Press is Australia's national news agency,
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/cubas-economy-entering-crucial-stage-010105720.html, Cuba's economy is entering crucial stage) Communist-led Cuba's experiment with limited capitalism is entering a crucial and transformative phase this year with the decentralisation of bloated state-run businesses, the island's economic tsar says. Marino Murillo says the goal is to improve efficiency of those businesses and let the successful ones keep more of their profits. Murillo said the next 18 months would be the "most complex" part of President Raul Castro's reform program, which has already seen limited openings to private entrepreneurship and a relaxation of many social restrictions. "The first stage of the reforms has so far, fundamentally, been the elimination of prohibitions in society,"
Murillo said in just his second face-to-face encounter with foreign journalists since he rose to prominence three years ago. "During what remains of the year 2013 and in 2014, we will work on

Castro's economic and social reforms, which began in 2010, aim to resuscitate a flagging economy with a smattering of free-market principles, though officials insist that a wholesale embrace of capitalism is not planned. After five decades of a state-dominated economy, hundreds of thousands of people have legally
... the most profound transformations," he added. gone into business for themselves, private farmers are cultivating land with the government's blessing and dozens of independent nonagricultural co-operatives were launched recently under a pilot program. Authorities have also approved home and used car sales, eased travel restrictions and established mortgages and small-business credits. Outside analysts have questioned the scope and pace of the reforms, saying so far they have been insufficient to turn around the economy and attract foreign investment. In a recent speech, Castro himself acknowledged that

most Cubans have yet to feel the benefits of a slowly growing economy. Murillo did not give many details about the next stage of the reforms, such as which companies will be decentralised and what wil happen to those that fail. An effort to give more autonomy to the sugar industry in 2012 that included new leadership and a restructuring of the once-powerful Sugar Ministry has yet to result in improved harvests. Murillo said the changes contemplated over the coming months include letting state enterprises keep up to 50 per cent
of revenue to reinvest. Currently all earnings go to the government, which controls all spending and distributes resources to successful and failing enterprises alike. "We must remove all impediments that put the brakes on possibilities," Murillo said. He acknowledged the island must attract more foreign investment, but insisted that Cuba will do so on its own terms and will not accept business proposals that don't contribute to the island in the way of technology, financing or employment. While some economists have argued that Cuba is in desperate need of an

Cuba does not have access to international capital markets, and US economic sanctions in place since the 1960s freeze it out of some potential lending sources. However, the country has grown closer to countries such as China and Venezuela and has received soft credits particularly from the latter, which supplies enough oil to meet half of the island's consumption at highly preferential terms. Labour Ministry spokesman Carlos Mateu later told reporters that a plan to
injection of capital, Murillo insisted foreign investment is merely "a complement" to the country's plan for economic development. eliminate a half-million workers from bloated state payrolls, announced by Castro in 2010, did not turn out as expected. Mateu said that instead there was a kind of realignment of labour, with many workers leaving government jobs to open or work for small businesses. In other cases, redundant state workers were transferred to posts where there was more of a need. "We realised

429,000 Cubans were now licensed as independent workers. The government remains by far the largest employer, accounting for 77 per cent of jobs among the island's five million-strong workforce. The other
that a phenomenon of movement was occurring in the labour force," Mateu said. He added that 23 per cent comprises private entrepreneurs, their employers, independent farmers and co-operatives.

Oil Drilling solves Cuban economy use as collateral to secure foreign investments from China and Brazil
Haven 12 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/27/cuba-oil-production_n_1549081.html; Cuba Oil Production: Cuba Waits Anxiously For Oil Dreams To Materialize; Paul Haven*Associated Press Writer]) An oil find could change the game, with Cuba using future oil riches as collateral to secure new financing, economists say. They point to China and Brazil as potential sources of new funding, but say neither is likely to put money into the island without reasonable confidence they will get their investment back. Lee Hunt, the recently retired president of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors, said the stakes are
enormous for Cuba that one of the wells hits oil before the Scarabeo-9 leaves. Hunt has worked to bring U.S. and Cuban industry and environmental groups

together. "If the only rig you can work with is gone, it's like somebody took your shovel away," Hunt said. "You are not going to dig any holes without a shovel, even if you know the treasure is down there."

Continued economic malaise risks Cuban internal instability and civil war
Campos 7/8 Pedro Campos, Cubas Burning Economic Contradictions, Havana Times, 7/8/2013,
http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=96009 A new kind of class confrontation The new social composition of classes that the updating process is creating presents at one extreme the unanticipated bureaucratic political and military class that believes itself to be the legitimate owner of the countrys entire economy. At the other extreme is the dispossessed and badly paid class of salaried workers that the state exploits. The new small and medium capitalists who exploit their own salaried workers represent a kind of nouveau riche class, benefitted by the updating measures but still held down by the States strictures. The salaried workers
exploited by these newly wealthy live better than the State salaried workers and as such prefer private capitalism. Then there are the true selfemployed workers who dont exploit outside labor from the intellectuals and artists with large incomes right down to the elderly peanut sellers all of them burdened by abusive state taxes. The state throws the new capitalists and their salaried workers into the same sack as the authentic self-employed, all under the label of cuentapropistas *self-employed]. And finally there are the cooperative members, formally organized or not, who work together and divide the profits; they are also smothered by state regulations. Apart from all these, there is a class thats not present in Cuba but which continues to push its agenda: the true wealthy capitalist class with large businesses, settled fundamentally in Miami. This class, exiled from power, has always aspired to return and today continues to plot its comeback on the heels of large international capital. The bureaucratic bourgeoisie now finds itself confronting all of these other classes and national groupings because it lives off of them exploiting all of them directly through salaried work or via abusive taxes and monopoly control of the economy, trade, finances and the dual monetary system. They are the class that is impeding the development of all the others, be it the wealthy classes or the germinating socialist class. Only themselves to blame Theres no doubt about it: the private capitalism or to socialize the economy, are

productive forces in Cuba, be it for the development of facing a common obstacle: the centralized state system and its bureaucracy determined to maintain itself in power indefinitely. I dont intend to sharpen contradictions that require
peaceful and democratic solutions, but objectively the tendency of the class composition of Cuban society and an analysis of its interests presents the

bureaucratic bourgeoisie created by State socialism as a kind of class that stands in opposition to social and economic positioned themselves against the entire Cuban people, against all of their classes and current social groupings. According to Carlos Marx, when the productive forces are held back by the relations of production in this case the salaried State workers revolutions appear . Later, let them not blame the imperialists, the counterrevolutionary forces, the Miami mafia, the new
advance in Cuba in any direction other than its own strengthening as a hegemonic group. In this way, they have technologies, nor much less the peaceful democratic and socialist left who have done everything possible to help find the road that they have blocked. Instead they should seek the causes from within, in their own self-interest, limitations and befuddlement.

Cuban instability spills over into multiple hotspots and leads to global conflict
Gorrell 5 (Tim Gorrell, Lieutenant Colonel, CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC
CRISIS? 3/18/05, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074, AD 7/11/13, AK) Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cubas problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans on the island, there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the conditions for instability and civil war . Whether Raul or another successor from within the current government can hold power is debatable. However, that individual will nonetheless extend the current policies for an indefinite period, which will only compound the Cuban situation. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility if the U.S. maintains the wait and see approach. The U.S. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. In the midst of this chaos, thousands will flee the island.
the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125,000 fled the island.26 Many were criminals; During

this time the number could be several hundred thousand

flee ing to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis. Equally important, by adhering to a negative containment policy, the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. Cuba is along the axis of the drug-trafficking flow into the U.S. from Columbia. The Castro government as a matter of policy does not support the drug trade. In fact, Cubas actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs 7.5 tons in 1995, 8.8 tons in 1999, and 13 tons in 2000.27 While

the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably. In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or
there may be individuals within the government and outside who engage in drug trafficking and a percentage of drugs entering the U.S. may pass through Cuba,

throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated . Such activity could increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency . The ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now
can mitigate these potential future problems. U.S. domestic political support is also turning against the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S. totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election strategy may be flawed, because recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily subscribe to the hard-line approach. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban

The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its coast. The administration, given the present state of world affairs, does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. The President and other government and military leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. These warnings were sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and economic resources. There is justifiable concern that Africa and the
relations. (Table 1) The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only issue is what happens then?

Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity, so these areas should be secure. North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also cannot ignore China . What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally, Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues, can the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40
years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

1AC China Advantage

ADVANTAGE 3 IS HEGEMONY China is committed to drilling in Cuba now and will fail lack of new equipment means past mistakes get repeated
Bert & Clayton 12 (Melissa & Blake Melissa Bert is a military fellow (U.S. Coast Guard) at the Council
on Foreign Relations. Blake Clayton is fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations. Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill, Policy Innovation Memorandum No. 15, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515) A Chinese-built semisubmersible oil rig leased by Repsol, a Spanish oil company, arrived in Cuban waters in January 2012 to drill Cuba's first exploratory offshore oil well. Early estimates suggest that Cuban offshore
oil and natural gas reserves are substantialsomewhere between five billion and twenty billion barrels of oil and upward of eight billion cubic feet of natural gas. Although the

United States typically welcomes greater volumes of crude oil coming from countries that are not members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a surge in Cuban oil production would complicate the United States' decades-old effort to economically isolate the Castro regime. Deepwater drilling off the Cuban coast also poses a threat to the United States. The exploratory well is seventy miles off the Florida coast and lies at a depth of 5,800 feet. The failed Macondo well that triggered the calamitous Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010 had broadly similar features, situated forty-eight miles from shore and approximately five thousand feet below sea level. A spill off Florida's coast could ravage the state's $57 billion per year tourism industry. Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cuba's unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own. Oil industry experts doubt that it has a strong understanding of how to prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deep-water well blowout. Moreover, the site where the first wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in. Unlike the calm Gulf of Mexico, the surface currents in the area where Repsol will be drilling move at a brisk three to four knots, which would bring oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days. Skimming or burning the oil may not be feasible in such fast-moving water. The most, and possibly only,
effective method to respond to a spill would be surface and subsurface dispersants. If dispersants are not applied close to the source within four days after a spill, uncontained oil cannot be dispersed, burnt, or skimmed, which would render standard response technologies like containment booms ineffective.

And, increased economic presence cements Chinese hegemony in the region

Economist 6/6/13 (The Economist, Why has China snubbed Cuba and Venezuela?, published Jun 6 th 2013,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/06/economist-explains-3)

Chinas president, from May 31st to June 6th, took him tantalisingly close to Beijings strongest ideological allies in the region, Cuba and Venezuela. Yet he steered clear of both of them. Instead of visiting
XI JINPING'S first visit to Latin America and the Caribbean as Cuba, as his predecessor Hu Jintao did on his first presidential trip to the region, Mr Xi stopped off in an English-speaking Caribbean nation, Trinidad and Tobago, which (as if to rub it in) is only a short hop from Caracas. He then travelled to Costa Rica and Mexico (pictured)two countries that are at least as much a part of Americas orbit as Cuba and Venezuela are part of the Beijing Consensus. Why this snub to two friendly nations that have been lavished with Chinese largesse in recent years, especially at a time when both are struggling to come to terms with the death in March of Hugo Chvez, the Cuba- and China-loving Venezuelan leader?The short answer is: for simplicitys sake. Visits to Cuba and Venezuela might well have raised distracting questions when Mr Xi meets Barack Obama in Southern California on June 7th, and neither socialist government was likely to express publicly any offence at being left off the itinerary. The beauty of having a chequebook as thick as Chinas is that if you give your friends the cold shoulder, you can always mollify the m with money. That may be why, on June 6th,

Venezuelas oil minister announced that he had secured an extra $4 billion from China to drill for oil, in addition to $35 billion already provided by Beijing. Not quite in the same league, but significant nonetheless, the Havana Times reported this week that China was also planning to invest in Cuban golf courses, the islands latest fad. However, as our story on Mr Xis visit to Latin America points out, he may have had other reasons for picking the destinations that he did. Firstly, he may be trying to respond to Mr Obamas pivot to Asia by showing that China is developing its own s phere of influence in Americas backyard. Chinas business relationship with Latin America gets less attention than its dealings with Africa, but in terms

of investment, it is much bigger. According to Enrique Dussel, a China expert at Mexicos National Autonomous University, Latin America and the Caribbean were collectively the second largest recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment between 2000-2011, after Hong Kong. In terms of funding, Kevin Gallagher of Boston University says China has provided more loans to Latin America since 2005 than the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank combined. The visits to Mexico and Costa Rica may also represent a pivot of sorts in terms of the type of economic relationship China has with Latin America. Up until now, China has
hoovered up the regions commodities, importing soya, copper, iron, oil and other raw materials, particularly from Brazil, Ch ile and Venezuela, while flooding the region with its manufactured goods. But its relations with Mexico, a rival in low-cost manufacturing, have been frosty: China accounts for only about 0.05% of Mexican foreign direct investment, and it exports ten times as

Beijing may be looking for bases such as Mexico and Costa Rica where it can relocate Chinese factories and benefit from free-trade agreements with the United States. This idea thrills the Mexican government, but does it pose an immediate threat to Venezuela and Cuba? Probably not: China will continue to need their staunch ideological support over issues like Taiwan, for one thing. But it does suggest that Chinas economic interest in the region is broadening, especially along the Pacific coast. If that proves to be the case, Cuba and Venezuela,
much to Mexico as it imports.But as wages in China have increased and high energy prices have raised the cost of shipping goods from China to America, deprived of the charismatic Chvez to court Beijing on their behalf, will have to work hard to stay relevant.

Chinese influence in Latin America threatens US global leadership

Ellis 11 R. Evan Ellis, Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric
Defense Studies at the National Defense University, Chinese Soft Power in Latin America A Case Study, Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 60, 1st quarter, 2011, http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq60/JFQ60_85-91_Ellis.pdf
Analysts looking for signs of imminent Chinese coercion or intervention in Latin America are likely to be disappointed. Nonetheless, Chinese

soft power

in Latin America still raises important national security issues,

even if the PRC does not explicitly seek to subvert or

marginalize the United States as part of its reemergence onto the world stage. In Latin America, as elsewhere, Chinas

currently modest influence is providing it with triumphs of ever-growing scale in strategically important business, culture, and technology arenas. Although no specific event may directly threaten the U.S. national interest, the collective effect is to restructure the global flows of value added and influence in a manner beneficial to China, making the ability of the United States to successfully pursue its own national goals and interests increasingly dependent on the acquiescence of the PRC. For analysts focused on the rise of China in Latin America and elsewhere, the issue is not whether China is a threat, or whether it has the right to pursue its national interests in Latin America and other parts of the world. Rather, it is important to recognize the dynamics that this reemergence creates in a region with close human, geographical, and economic ties to the United States, and to prepare to mitigate the risks, meet the challenges, and rise to the opportunities that Chinas entry into Latin America makes possible.

Hegemony stops great power wars and creates global stability

Kagan, Senior Fellow at Brookings, 3-14-12 (Robert, America has made the world freer, safer and
wealthier CNN, http://us.cnn.com/2012/03/14/opinion/kagan-world-americamade/index.html?hpt=hp_c1) We take a lot for granted about the way the world looks today -- the widespread freedom, the unprecedented global prosperity (even despite the current economic crisis), and the absence of war among great powers. In 1941 there were only a dozen democracies in the world. Today
there are more than 100. For four centuries prior to 1950, global GDP rose by less than 1 percent a year. Since 1950 it has risen by an average of 4 percent a year, and billions of people have been lifted out of poverty. The first half of the 20th century saw the two most destructive wars in the history of mankind, and in prior centuries war among great powers was almost constant.

for the past 60 years no great powers have gone to war. This is the world America made when it assumed global leadership after World War II. Would this world order survive if America declined as a great power? Some American intellectuals insist that a "Post-American" world need not look very different from the American world and that all we need to do is "manage" American decline. But that is wishful thinking. If the balance of power shifts in the direction of other powers, the world order will inevitably change to suit their interests and preferences. Take the issue of democracy. For several decades, the balance of power in the world has favored democratic governments. In a genuinely post-American world, the balance would shift toward the great power autocracies. Both China and Russia already protect dictators like Syria's Bashar al-Assad. If they gain greater relative influence in the future, we will see fewer democratic transitions and more autocrats hanging on to power. What about the free
But

market, free trade economic order? People assume China and other rising powers that have benefited so much from the present system would have a stake in preserving it. They wouldn't kill

Although the Chinese have been beneficiaries of an open international economic order, they could end up undermining it simply because, as an autocratic society, their priority is to preserve the state's control of wealth and the power it brings. They might kill the goose because they can't figure out how to keep both it and themselves alive. Finally, what about the long peace that has held among the great powers for the better part of six decades? Many people imagine that American predominance will be replaced by some kind of multipolar harmony. But multipolar systems have historically been neither stable nor peaceful. War among the great powers was a common, if not constant, occurrence in the long periods of multipolarity in the 16th, 17th, and 18th centuries. The 19th century was notable for two stretches of great-power peace of roughly four decades each, punctuated, however, by major wars among great powers and culminating in World War I, the most destructive and deadly war mankind had known up to that point. The era of American predominance has shown that there is no better recipe for great-power peace than certainty about who holds the upper hand. Many people view the present international order as the inevitable result of human progress, a combination of advancing science and technology, an increasingly global economy, strengthening international
the goose that lays the golden eggs. But China's form of capitalism is heavily dominated by the state, with the ultimate goal being preservation of the ruling party. institutions, evolving "norms" of international behavior, and the gradual but inevitable triumph of liberal democracy over other forms of government -- forces of change that transcend the

there was nothing inevitable about the world that was created after World War II. International order is not an evolution; it is an imposition. It is the domination of one vision over others -- in America's case, the domination of liberal free market principles of economics, democratic principles of politics, and a peaceful international system that supports these, over other visions that other nations and peoples may have. The present order will last only as long as those who favor it and benefit from it retain the will and capacity to defend it. If and when American power declines, the institutions and norms American power has supported will decline, too. Or they may collapse altogether as we transition into another kind of world order, or into disorder. We may discover then that the United States was essential to keeping the present world order together and that the alternative to American power was not peace and harmony but chaos and catastrophe -- which was what the world looked like right before the American order came into being.
actions of men and nations. But

1AC Solvency
CONTENTION TWO IS SOLVENCY Cuba will cooperate with the plan and on spill response the plan sends a clear signal to private investors that guarantees drilling happens immediately
Washington Post 12 (http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-0217/opinions/35445244_1_blowout-preventer-scarabeo-deepwater-horizon)
Cubas

first deepwater oil rig, Scarabeo 9, began drilling last month 70 miles south of Key West, Fla. Cuban officials believe the rig may tap as

much as 20 billion barrels of oil. (U.S. officials estimate a quarter to half that amount.) If

Cubas estimates bear out, this

would bring the countrys oil reserves to roughly equal those of the United States . The Spanish oil company
Repsol, as well as other international companies with offshore leases from Havana, will drill at depths up to 6,000 feet, as the Cuban government pursues an era of energy independence. It

is vital to the environmental and economic interests of the United States that Cuba get this right. The Cuban government is overseeing drilling deeper than BPs Deepwater Horizon well and almost as close to U.S. shores, but without access to most of the resources, technology, equipment and expertise essential to prevent and, if needed, to respond to spills . We are deeply
familiar with the two largest oil spills in U.S. history, from the Exxon Valdez in 1989 and following the BP Deepwater Horizon explosion in 2010. In each case, containing and remediating the spill required the mobilization of vast resources from the federal government, the private sector and local communities. The Deepwater Horizon spill, 5,000 feet below the oceans surface, occurred under the watch of experienced U.S. regulators, at a well drilled by one of the worlds largest, most experienced oil companies on one of the worlds most sophisticated drilling rigs. The response effort involved more than 5,000 vessels and is estimated by BP to have cost $42 billion. The International Association of Drilling Contractors estimates that Cuba has access to less than 5 percent of the resources used in combating the Deepwater Horizon disaster. It

is

fortunate that a company with a good track record is the first to drill off the Cuba coast. Repsol

regularly

communicates with U.S. regulators , providing them access to Scarabeo 9 when it was moored in Trinidad, on
its way to Cuba. But Repsol is also hampered by this countrys embargo on business with Cuba. The blowout preventer on Scarabeo, for example, was built in the United States it constitutes the rigs maximum 10 percent U.S. content permitted by law. But the company that made it will not commission or maintain it, nor will it supply replacement parts because it does not have a license to operate in Cuba. One hopes that Cuban engineers are as ingenious at jury-rigging a blowout preventer as they are with their old American cars.

Cuban regulators are preparing themselves for the challenge ahead. They have
on the implementation of a regulatory regime known

sought guidance from Norwegian counterparts

as the safety

case, where risks are rigorously identified and factored into drilling protocols, and they have sent
engineers to Brazil to learn about the deepwater oil industry. They

also studied in detail the findings of the Deepwater Horizon commission and its companion technical report, and they have prepared action responses to each of the reports key recommendations, as we learned on a September visit with these officials. But these regulators are severely
hampered by the embargo. They cannot engage in dialogue or share expertise with their U.S. counterparts . Their engineers can be trained by international companies but cannot attend training in the United States or be certified by
any U.S. organization. The

Cuban government and Repsol have stated their intention to comply with U.S. rules to the best of their abilities, even though the Cuban government can have no direct contact with our regulators to learn more about those rules. The U.S. government can , and should, make available the resources that the organizations involved with Scarabeo need to do their job well . It United States from a potential
disaster. In the should also be prepared, should something go wrong, to protect the waters and beaches of Florida
and the southeast event of an emergency, the U.S. government would likely do that. But the help might well come too late. The

private sector needs considerable time to ready an effective response. Engineers need to understand the rig, well characteristics and marine environment. Companies need to prepare detailed contingency plans and to allocate appropriate equipment. The only capping stacklicensed for use in Cuba in the event of a blowout on the ocean floor, for instance, is in Scotland, a weeks trip away, and has no licensed vessel or crew. Certain resources may not be available if summoned at the last minute. The Commerce and Treasury departments have issued some licenses to spill-response providers and are reviewing others. As welcome as that is, it is not sufficient. The application process and the threat of very significant fines deter many companies from even considering the prospect. The private sector needs a clear signal from the executive branch in order to move forward. Precedents exist for communication between the U.S. and Cuban governments on common interests. The Coast Guard kept Havana apprised of developments with the Deepwater Horizon spill, at a time when some feared the gushing oil could foul Cuban waters. Cuban and U.S. officials have shared information on drug interdiction, immigration and weather, and the United States exports grain and medical supplies to Cuba. All of this has taken place without an official change in policy since the embargo was imposed in 1962 . The Obama administration has the authority now, without a change in law or regulation to provide a general license to all qualified U.S. companies that express an interest in helping prevent and respond to a Cuban oil spill. This is a charged issue, one that many officials might want to avoid in an election
year. Some have proposed further restricting access to U.S. technology for companies working with Cuba, in the hopes that this might prevent the Cubans from accessing their oil. It is, however, time to face reality. Providing

Repsol and Cuban regulators with access to resources for spill prevention and response will not further the development of Cubas oil and gas industry. Thats already under way. What it will do is help protect Key West. It is profoundly in the interest of the United States that we get this right.

USFG action is key no other country could successfully extract Cuban oil
Haven 12 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/27/cuba-oil-production_n_1549081.html; Cuba Oil Production: Cuba Waits Anxiously For Oil Dreams To Materialize; Paul Haven*Associated Press Writer]) If exploitation does go forward, complicated equipment is required to pull oil from such depths. Several industry experts said the only country that produces the necessary apparatus is the United States, although Brazil and other countries are working to catch up. Unless they do, the oil could not be removed unless the U.S. embargo was lifted or altered. "A lot of folks are looking at the energy sector in Cuba because they
are looking at a Cuba of five years from now, or 10 years from now," said Pinon. "So a lot of people are betting that either the embargo is going to be lifted, or the relationship between the U.S. and Cuba is going to improve in some way." Still, the benefits of hitting a gusher would be enormous for Cuba, and the impact could be felt long before any oil was pumped. Because creditor nations nearly $30 billion.

of the embargo, Cuba is shut off from borrowing from international lending institutions, and the island's own poor record of repayment has left most other creditors leery. Cuba, for instance, owes the Paris Club of

1AC Relations Advantage

Advantage 4 is Nuclear Terrorism Improved US Cuban relations solves key issues in Latin America, leads to better disaster prevention and decreases the risk of drug-related terrorism Brenner and Stephens 2012 PHILIP BRENNER and SARAH STEPHENS 5/22/12 Improved relations with Cuba would benefit U.S. Politico
Opinion Contributor, Philip Brenner is a professor of international relations at American University. Sarah Stephens is executive director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76626_Page2.html
In recent years, they have. Varela has been allowed into the U.S. to play his music. Eusebio Leal, the historian who has led the renovation of dilapidated sections of Havana, and other leading

Cuban intellectuals have received visas to lecture, do research or teach in the U.S. These visits have not been party-line productions. They have been characterized by open and serious dialogue though one Cuban scholar did call Cuba the Jurassic Park of socialism as he invited a roomful of congressmen to visit the i sland. Against this backdrop of a more measured visa policy, LASA decided to return to the U.S. Obama administration officials reportedly promised that they would issue visas to genuine Cuban scholars who were invited. They have indeed granted 63 visas to the 85 Cubans who applied this year. The administration even gave a visa to Mariela Castro Espin, a champion of gay rights and a leader
in Cubas successful program to fight HIV-AIDS. She also happens to be President Ral Castros daughter which brought her participation at the LASA meeting to the attention of hard-line Cuban-Americans in Congress.

Some State Department officials have sought appreciation from Latin American scholars for issuing the 63 visas, including one for Castros daughter. Their decisions here lack consistency, transparency and logic. U.S. interests should not be held hostage to the narrow objectives of extremists in both countries. Improved relations with Cuba would benefit the U.S. by enabling us to work together on problems of drug interdiction, terrorism, natural disaster preparation and human disaster prevention, like oil spills . It would make family reunification easier and normalize cultural exchange. It could also help Washington improve relations with its major Latin American allies and trading partners, several of which announced last month that they would not attend any future summit of the Americas unless Cuba participated.

Hezbollah ties mean its try or die to prevent cartel-related terrorism plan solves nuclear terror and miscalc with Iran and Saudi Arabia Analysis Intelligence 11 (Iron Triangle of Terror: Iran, Hezbollah, and Los Zetas? on December 19, 2011.
http://analysisintelligence.com/intelligence-analysis/iron-triangle-of-terror-iran-hezbollah-and-los-zetas/ - Analysis Intelligence makes projections about foreign policy using open source public records.)

What would the ultimate border security nightmare look like? Might it involve drug cartels, rogue special forces soldiers, or transnational terrorists? How about all three? This scenario sounds like something out of a Hollywood movie. The problem is that for the United States this nightmare may have come true.Zetas OSINT On December 15th it was revealed in an indictment that Hezbollah has a substantial drug connection to the Mexican drug cartel Los Zetas. The Lebanese druglord Ayman Joumaa was indicted in absentia for, conspiring to smuggle over 90,000 tons of cocaine into America and laundering over $250 million for the cartels. The druglord has close ties to Hezbollah and functioned as a middle man between the terrorist organization and the cartels. In terms of raw numbers, the amount of cocaine that he tried to smuggle was equivalent to a cargo of 2,250 eighteen wheelers. The sheer volume of this transaction is cause for concern, but the fact that Hezbollah and Los Zetas are working together is far worse. So why is this new development so significant to US border security? We must first consider the history and background of these groups. Hezbollah is one of the worlds largest terrorist groups and is based in southern Lebanon. The
Shiite organization receives funding from Iran and engaged in a proxy war with Israel in 2005. It is responsible for some of the worst terrorist attacks of the last two decades, including the 1983 Beirut bombing that killed 241 Americans. Hezbollah

may be the most influential organization preventing stability in the Middle East. Los Zetas are the cartel equivalent of Hezbollah in Latin

America. The Zetas are described as, highly trained, highly motivated commandos formerly with the Mexican military[that] represent law enforcements worst nightmare come true. The Zetas began as a group of paramilitary soldiers that were turned by the Gulf cartel. After falling out with the cartel, the Zetas formed their own. They are considered to be the most dangerous drug cartel and the second most powerful in Mexico. The organization has participated in a number of hideous acts including the 2011 Tamaulipas massacre that killed some 200 civilians. Los Zetas is considered to be one of the best trained and violent groups in Latin America. What is the regional significance of Hezbollah working with the drug cartels? Lets
consider Hezbollahs cell activity in Latin America and examine its relationship with the cartels. Hezbollahs influence in the region dates back several years. Click here to see the interactive timeline. Hezbollah has been involved in the drug trade in Latin America since the mid-1980s. The group is primarily located in the tri-border area Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. Its primary functions are to launder money and receive profits from the drug trade. Hezbollah had an, estimated 460 operatives in the TBA by mid-2000 and this number has probably increased dramatically. Profits from criminal activity in the region are estimated to be in the millions of dollars. Over the past 25 years, Hezbollah has carefully trained its top operatives to form cells and set up shop in North and South America. If Hezbollah were a drug cartel or a separatist movement, it would not be as much of a threat to the United States. However, Hezbollah is a very connected organization that has killed hundreds of Americans and fought a war with Israel. The

most important fact about Hezbollah is that it is a state sponsored terrorist organization, Hezbollah clearly acts as a proxy for Iran specifically, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Qods Forceglobally and in Latin America. Thus, Hezbollahs escalating presence in the Western Hemisphere can be understood only in the context of its patron Irans pursuit of its strategic objectives. The fact that Iran is a state sponsor of Hezbollah means that the organization has the finances and the expertise to commit substantial acts of terrorism.
operatives In July, members of Congress were briefed on the growing influence of Hezbollah in the region. One report indicated that the threat to the US border is already here,

were already infiltrating the southern border with Mexico as well as Canada. In July 2010, the first improvised explosive device exploded in the U.S.-Mexico border town of Ciudad Juarez. This problem
seems to have been severely overlooked by the mainstream media. It is quite surprising because Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega even made a statement saying that, I

believe there will be an attack on U.S. personnel, installations or interests in the Americas as soon as Hizbullah operatives believe that they are capable of such an operation without implicating their Iranian sponsors in the crime. It is highly significant that a former top US official has come out and
said that an attack by Hezbollah is likely. However, it appears that the salience of the issue has grown over the past few months: The issue has increased in momentum over the past few months US websites dedicated to border issues and even one of the Republican presidential candidates mentioned the significant and imminent threat of the Iran-Latin America nexus. Others have indicated that Hezbollah functions as a sort of insurance policy for Iran in those regions. The state can fund the terrorist group and still exercise plausible deniability in the event of a major attack. Iran perceives its support of Hezbollah as a way to pressure the United States within its strategic sphere of influence in the Americas. Some sources have said that the strengthening relationship between Iran and Venezuela has increased Hezbollahs influence in the region. Both leaders are staunchly anti-American, and it is reasonable to think that they would pursue activities that would undermine US interests. Roger Noreiga, the same official that warned of an attack by Hezbollah, indicat es that Venezuela, has allowed Iran to mine uranium and that Venezuelas Margarita Island has eclipsed the infamous TBA as the principal safe haven and center of Hezbollah operations in the Americas. This is particularly disturbing as Iran

is suspected of pursuing a nuclear weapon while simultaneously funding Hezbollah close to the US border. Therefore, there major concerns that if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon it might share the weapon with Hezbollah. There are two major Hezbollah networks operating in the

Americas under the direction of the Iranian Quds Force. The first is the Nassereddine network, operated by a former Lebanese citizen that became a Venezuelan and is now the second-ranking diplomatic official to Syria. He currently resides on Margarita Island and runs money laundering operations for the group. The other network is purportedly run by Hojjat al-Eslam Mohsen Rabbani, a culutral attach from Iran who is involved in various recruitment activities and frequently

Now back to the cartels. Why is the link between Hezbollah and Los Zetas so important? The main concern is that if Hezbollah and Los Zetas are cooperating on drugs (which they are to the tune of hundreds of millions), then why would they not cooperate on weapons? Hezbollah and other extremists may be willing to export their knowledge of IEDs to the cartels. The relationship between Hezbollah and Los Zetas appears to have already expanded beyond drugs. In October 2011, the US authorities revealed that there was an attempt made by Iran to assassinate the Saudi ambassador on US soil. It looks like Los Zetas was intricately involved with Iran in this and other related plots, The alleged plot also included plans to pay the cartel, Los Zetas, to bomb the Israeli Embassy in Washington and the Saudi and Israeli Embassies in Argentina, according to a law enforcement officialThe plotters also
travels under false papers in Latin America. The two networks together make up the majority of Hezbollahs activity in the Americas. discussed a side deal between the Quds Force, part of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and Los Zetas to funnel tons of opium from the Middle East to Mexico. Other information that we have found would corroborate the existence of a relationship between Hezbollah and Los Zetas.

Nuclear terror escalates to global nuclear war

Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by the country attacked in the first place, would not necessarily represent the worst of the nuclear worlds imaginable. Indeed, there are reasons to wonder whether nuclear terrorism should ever be regarded as belonging in the category of truly existential threats. A contrast can be drawn here with the global catastrophe that would come from a massive nuclear exchange between two or more of the sovereign states that possess these weapons in significant numbers. Even the worst terrorism that the twenty-first century might bring would fade into insignificance alongside considerations of what a general nuclear war would have wrought in the Cold War period. And it must be admitted that as long as the major nuclear weapons states have hundreds and even thousands of nuclear weapons at their disposal, there is always the possibility of a truly awful nuclear exchange taking place precipitated entirely by state possessors themselves. But these two

nuclear worldsa non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear exchangeare not necessarily separable. It is just possible that some sort of terrorist attack, and especially an act of nuclear terrorism, could precipitate a chain of events leading to a massive exchange of nuclear weapons between two or more of the states that possess them. In this context, todays and tomorrows terrorist groups might assume the place allotted during the early Cold War years to new state possessors of
small nuclear arsenals who were seen as raising the risks of a catalytic nuclear war between the superpowers started by third parties. These risks were considered in the late 1950s and early 1960s as concerns grew about nuclear proliferation, the so-called n+1 problem. It may require a considerable amount of imagination to depict an especially plausible situation where an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state nuclear war. For example, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the United States, it might well be wondered just how Russia and/or China could plausibly be brought into the picture, not least because they seem unlikely to be fingered as the most obvious state sponsors or encouragers of terrorist groups. They would seem far too responsible to be involved in supporting that sort of terrorist behavior that could just as easily threaten them as well. Some possibilities, however remote, do suggest themselves. For example, how

might the United States react if it was thought or discovered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Russian stocks, and if for some reason Moscow denied any responsibility for nuclear laxity? The correct attribution of that nuclear material to a particular country might not be a case of science fiction given the observation by Michael May et al. that while the debris resulting from a nuclear explosion would be spread over a wide area in tiny fragments, its radioactivity makes it detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a wealth of information can be obtained from its analysis: the efficiency of the explosion, the materials used and, most important some indication of where the nuclear material came from.41 Alternatively, if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a complete surprise, and American officials refused to believe that a terrorist group was fully responsible (or responsible at all) suspicion would shift immediately to state possessors. Ruling out Western ally countries like the United Kingdom and France, and probably Israel and India as
well, authorities in Washington would be left with a very short list consisting of North Korea, perhaps Iran if its program continues, and possibly Pakistan. But at what stage would Russia and China be definitely ruled out in this high stakes game of nuclear Cluedo?