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House prices, land prices, and fundamentals under the microscope

House prices, land prices, and fundamentals under the microscope

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Remarks given by AEI's Steve Oliner during the International Conference on Collateral Risk.
Remarks given by AEI's Steve Oliner during the International Conference on Collateral Risk.

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Categories:Types, Brochures
Published by: American Enterprise Institute on Mar 28, 2014
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03/28/2014

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House Prices, Land Prices, and Fundamentals Under the Microscope
 Analysis of the Washington, DC Metro Area
Steve Oliner  AEI and UCLA Ziman Center Presented at International Conference on Collateral Risk Hosted by Allianz SE in Berlin, Germany March 28, 2014
The research presented here is joint work with Edward Pinto at AEI and Morris Davis at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
 
House Prices: What Do We Know?
Housing busts can be very damaging to the economy and financial system. Best to prevent them if possible. House prices can stray from fundamentals (construction cost, rent, income). Eventually correct back. Risk varies over the cycle. Highest during the boom. Land is the risky part of the housing bundle.
 
Residential Land and House Prices
In the recent cycle, land prices moved up and down much more than house prices.
Source: Nichols, Oliner, and Mulhall (2013).
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Residential land price index, 23 cities Case-Shiller 20-city house price index Index, 2002:H2 = 100 Half-yearly

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