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R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,

21 APRIL 25 APRIL 2014

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold futures fell as signs of gains in the U.S. economy eroded demand for the metal. Consumer confidence rose from a nine-week low as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy, and jobless claims were close to the lowest in almost seven years, data showed today. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia factory index, a gauge of regional manufacturing, climbed to 16.6 in April, topping estimates by analysts. Gold dropped 1.9% this week. These positive economic reports are pushing gold lower. Theres not really a compelling story to buy gold now, other than the situation in Crimea. Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to close at $1,293.90 an ounce at 1:40 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Trading was 28 percent below the average in the past 100 days. The market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. This year, gold has climbed 7.6 percent this year on haven demand linked to the turmoil in Ukraine. Diplomats from the Eastern European country, Russia, the U.S. and the European Union met for talks on the crisis in Geneva today. Brent crude traded near a six-week high amid concern that the escalating crisis in Ukraine will disrupt supplies. West Texas Intermediate rose for a second day. Futures advanced as much as 0.2 percent in London before retreating. Ukraine accused Russia of fueling terrorism in its eastern regions as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization pledged to bolster the defenses of nearby nations. WTI rose after Janet Yellen, in her first speech to a Wall Street audience since becoming Federal Reserve chair, emphasized her commitment to support the U.S. economic recovery. The escalating crisis in Ukraine provides strong support to the market amid concerns about oil supply issues in the region. Yellen comments yesterday spread an optimistic tone in the WTI contract amid hopes for a strong U.S. economic recovery. Brent for June settlement was 37 cents lower at $109.23 a barrel as of 12:47 p.m. on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.30 to WTI for the same month. The spread widened for a third day yesterday to close at $6.57. The quick recovery in the COMEX Copper seen on Wednesday and which is continuing on Thursday is due to the prices slowing down to the levels of production cost. The metal is produced at $ 2.8 to $ 3 per pound in various mines across the globe. In a brief moment last session the prices of COMEX Copper moved below $ 3 before recover. When last checked the prices of COMEX Copper were trading at $ 3.039 per pound, up 1 cent. In major news, report from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released yesterday showed that China's industrial value added expanded by 8.8 percent in March from an average growth of 8.6 percent in the Jan-Feb period. The value added of state-owned enterprises saw a 4.6-percent growth year on year in March, while that of joint stock companies expanded by 10.1 percent, according to the NBS data. Last month, the value added of the manufacturing sector grew by 9.9 percent, while that of the mining industry grew by 2.9 percent. COMEX Copper fund managers for the positions on 8 April showed decline in short positions. A simultaneous marginal build in long positions were noted. Long positions of Copper were 29092 contracts, up 198. Short position of Copper was 42467 contracts, down 6151 contracts.

Gold Drops on U.S. Economy.

Brent Crude Trades near SixWeek High on Ukraine.

Copper Recovering as Prices near Cost of Production on COMEX.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
Apr 21 7:30pm Apr 22 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Apr 23 7:15pm 7:30pm 8:00pm Apr 24 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 8:00pm Apr 25 7:15pm 7:25pm 7:25pm

DESCRIPTION
CB Leading Index m/m HPI m/m Existing Home Sales Richmond Manufacturing Index Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Unemployment Claims Durable Goods Orders m/m Natural Gas Storage Flash Services PMI Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

FORECAST
0.8% 0.6% 4.57M 0 56.2 455K

PREVIOUS
0.5% 0.5% 4.60M -7 55.5 440K 10.0M

0.6% 309K 2.1%

0.1% 304K 2.2% 24B

56.2 83.2

55.5 82.6 3.1%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week showed downward movement and unable to maintain above 38.2% retracement and dragged towards its previous support levels i.e. 28200. Now, on higher side if it closed above 28800 then next resistance may be seen in the range of 29000-29250. On other hand if it sustains at lower levels and trades below 28200 then bearishness may take it towards the support level of 27800.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 28300 for the targets of 2800027800 with stop loss of 28800.

S1
28200

S2
27900

S3
27600

R1
28800

R2
29100

R3
29410

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER showed downward movement on daily charts and broke its important support level i.e. 42400 and found support of trendline but not able to close below it. Now, immediate support is seen near 41500 below which next support will be 40500. On higher side if it maintains above 43100 then some correction will take it upto next resistance level of 43850.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 41500 for targets of 40500-40000, with stop loss of 43100.

PIVOT TABLE S1
41500

S2
39900

S3
38500

R1
43100

R2
44165

R3
45350

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil last week showed sideways movement and traded around the trendline and also closed above it. If the upward movement continues and maintains above 6320 then it may find resistance in the range of 6410-6500. On other hand if it reverse from trendline then 6180 will act as major support for it.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 6180 for the targets of 6100-6040, with stop loss of 6330.

PIVOT TABLE S1
6185

S2
6115

S3
6035

R1
6320

R2
6415

R3
6500

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper on daily charts sustained below 23.6% retracement last week and was able to rebound from lower level of 400 to close the week on a flat note. It needs to sustain above 412 above which it may lead towards the next important resistance of 420 while on lower side 400 is still seen as pychological support below which further bearishness may drag it towards support range of 392-385.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy above 412, with stop loss of 399 for the targets of 420-425.

S1
399

S2
391.80

S3
386

R1
412

R2
421.50

R3
429

DISCLAIMER

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