Commodities Evening Update

Monday | July 29, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | July 29, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis UKs Net Lending to Individuals was at 1.5 billion Pounds in June. LME Copper inventories fell by 0.4 percent in todays trade. UKs CBI Realized Sales was at 17-mark in the current month. European equities are trading higher today on the back of favorable corporate earnings from the region. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading in the red. UKs Net Lending to Individuals was at 1.5 billion Pounds in June as against a rise of 1.2 billion Pounds a month ago. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales was at 17-mark in July from earlier 1-level in June. Mortgage Approvals remained unchanged at 58,000 in the month of June. Spot gold prices gained around 0.1 percent today on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). Further, decline in SPDR gold holdings which are at lowest level since February 2009 coupled with mixed global markets capped sharp gains in prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices rose around 0.6 percent today. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for prices. Depreciation in the Rupee acted as a favorable factor for prices on the MCX. The base metals complex traded on a positive note on the back of weakness in the DX. However, mixed LME inventories scenario acted as a negative factor for prices. Further, mixed global markets capped sharp gains in prices. Depreciation in the Rupee acted as a positive factor for prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals group rose more than 0.4 percent today on account of weakness in the DX. Further, s decline in LME copper inventories by 0.4 percent which stood at 618,775 tonnes supported an upside in prices. On the domestic front, depreciation in the Rupee acted as a positive factor for prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.3 percent today on the back of weakness in the DX. However, rise in US crude oil output during the last week and mixed global markets capped sharp gains in prices. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5869.95 19714.42 13899.27 1908.66 High 5886.00 19751.03 13953.85 1912.57

as at 4.30 pm 29 July 13
Low 5825.80 19570.87 13661.13 1899.02 Last 5831.65 19593.28 13661.13 1899.89 % Chg from Prev day -0.93 -0.78 -3.32 -0.57

16476.67

16501.41

16307.63

16307.63

-0.64
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 29 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 81.78 1.3273 58.94 High 81.82 1.3295 59.45 Low 81.61 1.326 58.94 Current 81.645 1.3286 59.39 % Chg from Prev day -0.15 0.06 0.60
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 29 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1333.30 1332.8

1337.71 1338

1322.71 1322.60

1334.85 1335.3

0.12 0.11

27566.00 19.99 19.975

27893.0 20.14 20.12

27552.0 19.66 19.66

27870.00 20.07 20.105

0.86 0.60 0.85

Rs/kg $/bbl

40881

41299

40726

41288

0.58

104.61

105.12

103.87

104.98

0.27

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

107.19 6202 6838.00 408.40

107.77 6248 6885.00 409.90

106.60 6186 6820.00 406.40

107.63 6240 6885.00 409.60

0.43 0.66 0.44 0.31

1849.00 108.10 2048

1860.00 108.40 2058

1842.00 107.50 2045

1845.00 107.50 2058

-0.22 -0.42 0.19

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

121.35 13850 817.70 1799.00 104.20

121.60 13900 820.00 1803.00 104.50

121.20 13752 813.20 1791.00 104.00

121.25 13849 814.70 1799.00 104.15

-0.21 0.04 -0.20 0.03 -0.05

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | July 29, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of weakness in global markets. Additionally, expectations of decline in pending home sales data from US will exert more downside pressure on base metals and crude oil prices. However, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 29 July 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 27580 1313 40700 19.47 6120 102.95 201 6715 403 106.2 120.2 102.8 800 Support 1 27700 1322 40050 19.71 6160 103.7 205 6785 406 107 121 103.4 808 CMP 27870 1335 41280 20.07 6240 104.97 207.2 6877 409.7 107.5 121.25 104.15 814.7 Resistance1 28050 1345 41650 20.12 6270 105.4 210 6910 412 108.5 122 105 825 Resistance 2 28180 1357 41950 20.3 6330 106.4 213 6965 415 109.3 122.9 106 833

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Retail Sales y/y BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Net Lending to Individuals m/m CBI Realized Sales Pending Home Sales m/m

Japan Japan UK UK US

5:20am 9:46am 2:00pm 3:30pm 7:30pm

1.6% 1.5B 17 -

1.7% 1.4B 11 -1.1%

0.8% 1.0B 1 6.7%

Medium High Medium Medium High