Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | August 21, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | August 21, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi Open High

Indian Rupee touched all time low of 64.58 in todays trade. US crude oil inventories expected to drop 1 mn bbl Reuters. Weakness in the Rupee takes MCX Gold to Rs.31,268/10 gms. European equities are trading lower today on the back of expectations that US Federal Reserve will cut its bond buying program as early as next month. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading in the red. Indian Rupee depreciated around 2 percent today on the back of dollar demand from importers. The currency touched a fresh low of 64.58 in todays trading session. The currency appreciated in initial part of the trade on account of measures announced by central bank in yesterdays trade but couldnt provide respite to the weaker Rupee. Spot gold prices traded on a negative note and declined around 0.5 percent on the back of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of rise in SPDR gold holdings. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices dropped around 0.3 percent today. Further, strength in the DX acted as a negative factor. On the MCX Silver September contract, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices. The base metals pack declined today mainly due to expectations that US Federal Reserve will start its QE tapering program from next month coupled with strength in the DX. Copper which is known as leader of base metals group witnessed a decline of 0.9 percent after touching an intraday low of $7268/tonne. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of drop in LME copper inventories around 1 percent which stood at 566,925 tonnes. On the MCX, Copper gained around 1.1 percent because of depreciation in the Rupee. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.1 percent on the back of expectations that US Federal will cuts its stimulus measures program from next month. Further, estimates of Libya to restart its crude oil production along with stronger DX exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as a result of forecast for decline in US crude oil inventories. Rupee depreciation restricted acted as a positive factor for prices on the MCX. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to fall by 1.0 million barrels for the week ending on 16th August 2013.

as at 4.30 pm 21 August 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5494.45 18545.44 13431.28 1891.01 17064.43

5504.10 18567.70 13499.99 1894.74 17159.84

5268.45 17807.19 13250.36 1863.60 16868.11

5302.55 17905.91 13424.33 1867.46 16868.11

-1.83 -1.86 0.21 -1.08 -0.54

Source: Reuters

FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 21 August 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

80.95 1.3415 63.12

81.17 1.3427 64.545

80.925 1.3378 63.11

81.12 1.3388 64.28

0.23 -0.21 1.85

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 21 August 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Aug13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Aug13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Aug13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Aug13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1371.19 1372.50 30740.00 22.94 0.2308 50979 105.18 110.11 6691 7307.75 464.75 1984.25 123.00 2244 141.20 14725 928.00 1912.50 118.15

1374.06 1372.50 31268.0 23.14 0.2308 51380 105.35 110.19 6798 7320.00 471.80 1984.50 125.80 2244 144.30 14753 944.40 1916.50 120.90

1359.49 1360.90 30625.0 22.72 0.2308 50005 104.43 109.23 6635 7256.00 462.80 1971.00 122.20 2226 140.40 14580 924.00 1905.00 117.60

1364.10 1361.50 31192.00 22.93 0.2308 51219 104.98 109.67 6788 7260.25 470.55 1976.25 125.45 2234 143.75 14599 939.80 1908.00 120.45

-0.48 -0.84 1.23 -0.26 0.06 1.51 0.07 -0.44 1.18 -0.85 1.07 -0.49 1.62 -0.56 1.41 -0.92 1.06 -0.42 1.73

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | August 21, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

The Federal Reserve has taken a muted approach and is preferring to maintain a silent stance ahead of its next monetary policy review that is scheduled on 29th 30th September13. We are getting these cues as Fed Chairman is not planning to attend the Jackson Hole Symposium, an event which is eyed by the global central bankers. Hence, we feel that the major cues may not be received from the Meeting Minutes but markets are likely to remain volatile ahead of the release of the same. While existing home sales data is expected to come on the positive side, markets are not likely to react much to this as total focus remains on cues over the Feds QE tapering. In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices in the international markets to trade lower but In the Indian markets, prices are expected to trade higher on the back of sharp depreciation in the Rupee. However, in case of crude oil, sharp downside on the Nymex will be prevented on the back of expected forecast of decline in US crude oil inventories.

Technical Outook for evening session 21 August 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas Aug13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc Aug13 Lead Aug13 Aluminum Aug13 Nickel Aug13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

30750 1342 50000 22.36 6660 103.3 218 7200 462 123.5 142 118.8 919

31000 1356 50650 22.7 6720 104.2 221 7250 466 124.6 143 119.6 930

31218 1365.4 51290 22.96 6777 105.02 224.4 7270 470.7 125.45 144 120.5 943

31320 1381 51400 23.40 6800 105.5 227 7320 472.5 126.2 145 121.3 950

31500 1392 51900 23.9 6860 106.5 230 7360 475 127 146.2 122 962

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Public Sector Net Borrowing CBI Industrial Order Expectations Existing Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Meeting Minutes

UK UK US US US

2:00pm 3:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 11:30pm

-1.6B 0 -

-3.7B -8 5.15M -1.0M -

10.2B -12 5.08M -2.8M -

Medium Medium High Medium High