Bolivia Proxy GDP

by Eduardo Petazze
In August 2015 the Bolivian economy grew by 3.93% YoY, from +2.38% YoY in July.
It is estimate that the GDP of Bolivia in the 3Q2015 grew by 3.95% YoY, from 5.01% YoY growth in the 2Q2015
Periodically, INE Bolivia, releases its monthly Indicator of the Global Economic Activity (IGAE), an efficient estimator of GDP.

Annual and Quarterly data

2013
2014
2015
2016
38,486,570 40,588,155 42,467,855 44,219,479
4,630,790 4,807,688 5,094,262 5,467,921
2,744,445 2,901,822 2,862,748 2,872,246
2,035,965 2,158,315 2,127,858 2,131,882
6,329,242 6,584,447 6,860,481 7,129,708
788,088
838,584
902,583
964,269
1,461,405 1,575,520 1,675,951 1,745,959
2,985,273 3,100,796 3,226,964 3,334,387
4,227,309 4,439,430 4,677,716 4,887,916
4,567,920 4,840,657 5,059,438 5,211,261
3,609,058 3,858,563 4,138,798 4,376,371
2,390,618 2,486,483 2,579,507 2,651,350
-1,720,078 -1,841,812 -1,928,474 -1,996,597
4,436,534 4,837,661 5,190,021 5,442,806
Latest data
Estimate
2013
2014
2015
2016
6.80%
5.46%
4.63%
4.12%
4.69%
3.82%
5.96%
7.33%
13.97%
5.73%
-1.35%
0.33%
2.89%
6.01%
-1.41%
0.19%
6.09%
4.03%
4.19%
3.92%
5.12%
6.41%
7.63%
6.83%
10.64%
7.81%
6.37%
4.18%
3.93%
3.87%
4.07%
3.33%
6.69%
5.02%
5.37%
4.49%
6.83%
5.97%
4.52%
3.00%
9.54%
6.91%
7.26%
5.74%
3.22%
4.01%
3.74%
2.79%
11.66%
7.08%
4.71%
3.53%
10.66%
9.04%
7.28%
4.87%
Latest data
Estimate

GDP (000) at (1990) prices

GDP
Agriculture, ..
O&G
Mining
Manufactuing
Electricity,
Construction
Commerce
Transpot & Communication
Finance
Public Sevices
Other
Financial services indirectly
Taxes

YoY
GDP
Agriculture, ..
O&G
Mining
Manufactuing
Electricity,
Construction
Commerce
Transpot & Communication
Finance
Public Sevices
Other
Financial services indirectly
Taxes

2014Q1
9,136,139
1,132,788
693,919
498,959
1,413,779
173,383
199,220
692,965
984,515
1,186,930
849,603
609,364
-454,539
1,155,254

2014Q2
10,268,239
1,515,674
698,181
530,192
1,699,013
212,426
315,068
868,385
1,074,345
1,345,203
886,174
618,473
-476,784
981,889

2014Q3
10,293,025
1,085,116
765,379
587,786
1,739,418
196,527
455,285
798,245
1,196,987
1,169,060
968,731
629,411
-517,078
1,218,158

2014Q4
10,890,752
1,074,110
744,343
541,378
1,732,237
256,248
605,947
741,201
1,183,583
1,139,464
1,154,055
629,235
-393,411
1,482,360

2015Q1
9,550,711
1,187,805
687,768
497,577
1,474,730
184,018
218,904
720,028
1,032,070
1,231,645
907,077
632,188
-469,137
1,246,038

2015Q2
10,782,209
1,583,990
686,247
559,057
1,786,329
228,750
331,014
906,302
1,137,853
1,426,155
949,962
640,609
-511,169
1,057,108

2015Q3
10,699,514
1,168,021
746,806
532,877
1,776,527
211,800
482,666
830,866
1,263,765
1,230,833
1,040,132
655,843
-544,384
1,303,762

2015Q4
11,435,421
1,154,446
741,927
538,347
1,822,895
278,015
643,367
769,768
1,244,028
1,170,805
1,241,627
650,867
-403,784
1,583,113

2014Q1
5.73%
3.12%
8.28%
6.03%
4.81%
5.45%
6.10%
4.16%
4.65%
8.52%
5.59%
4.38%
13.03%
10.67%

2014Q2
4.81%
1.88%
8.95%
4.20%
2.99%
4.99%
8.12%
3.51%
5.07%
5.44%
6.23%
3.67%
5.63%
9.12%

2014Q3
6.09%
6.55%
5.02%
9.69%
4.00%
7.27%
9.96%
3.85%
5.09%
6.38%
7.35%
3.99%
6.58%
8.71%

2014Q4
2015Q1
5.27%
4.54%
4.67%
4.86%
1.41%
-0.89%
3.97%
-0.28%
4.47%
4.31%
7.61%
6.13%
6.65%
9.88%
4.04%
3.91%
5.20%
4.83%
3.65%
3.77%
8.08%
6.76%
4.01%
3.75%
3.15%
3.21%
8.02%
7.86%

2015Q2
5.01%
4.51%
-1.71%
5.44%
5.14%
7.68%
5.06%
4.37%
5.91%
6.02%
7.20%
3.58%
7.21%
7.66%

2015Q3
3.95%
7.64%
-2.43%
-9.34%
2.13%
7.77%
6.01%
4.09%
5.58%
5.28%
7.37%
4.20%
5.28%
7.03%

2015Q4
5.00%
7.48%
-0.32%
-0.56%
5.23%
8.49%
6.18%
3.85%
5.11%
2.75%
7.59%
3.44%
2.64%
6.80%

Monthly data
NSA 1990=100
Jan-15
GDP
241.78
Agriculture, ..
137.45
O&G
431.67
Mining
225.07
Manufactuing
219.18
Electricity,
343.73
Construction
218.31
Commerce
189.68
Tansport, ..
251.96
Communication
618.94
Finance
303.23
Public Sevices
213.09
Other
213.93
Financial services indirectly measured 736.49
Taxes
460.50
Latest data
Own estimate
YoY
Jan-15
GDP
4.50%
Agriculture, ..
1.95%
O&G
-1.19%
Mining
3.09%
Manufactuing
3.82%
Electricity,
5.28%
Construction
9.86%
Commerce
3.81%
Tansport, ..
5.44%
Communication
3.96%
Finance
3.26%
Public Sevices
6.81%
Other
4.11%
Financial services indirectly measured 2.27%
Taxes
8.32%
Latest data
Own estimate

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

230.51
269.84 280.05
278.29 279.48
169.07
294.63 315.04
243.57 243.04
380.65
430.94 384.52
435.26 420.72
208.12
217.19 227.07
247.35 256.32
198.21
258.15 252.41
292.56 273.31
270.86
274.33 378.67
378.90 347.43
145.33
190.52 272.71
284.84 280.42
192.49
248.08 268.10
254.71 270.49
240.15
285.94 270.11
313.21 301.67
456.75
373.01 495.16
497.65 410.68
312.61
325.93 342.52
380.58 367.39
232.45
255.51 231.74
229.26 273.20
212.79
211.12 212.63
216.07 217.64
717.36
770.88 858.86
780.60 784.60
381.98
325.94 391.16
283.87 316.23

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

270.14 271.07 290.18 294.39 280.59 313.59
183.72 169.63 237.78 238.86 202.65 142.75
435.41 465.30 449.26 450.98 474.45 415.72
232.97 230.94 232.61 232.09 241.00 230.58
277.40 273.63 262.76 294.60 276.60 263.83
317.57 334.23 371.32 451.87 458.64 432.47
334.94 343.05 543.89 406.37 486.32 736.01
246.32 235.21 245.74 236.54 223.84 213.41
322.12 332.57 306.74 313.74 304.85 318.81
579.13 581.65 551.11 557.00 534.89 657.49
316.99 290.93 333.22 263.06 303.74 328.44
264.29 266.32 273.28 216.89 219.40 523.33
220.23 220.39 221.09 220.16 217.43 219.10
895.67 847.55 838.35 408.69 754.41 751.72
374.31 420.15 428.09 531.57 445.84 507.09

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
2.97% 5.94% 4.86%
4.59% 5.56%
2.38% 3.93% 5.47% 4.97% 5.07% 4.97%
5.20%
6.07% 4.69%
4.08% 4.70%
4.85% 5.49% 11.55% 7.18% 9.25% 5.55%
-3.70%
2.06% 0.83% -2.50% -3.13% -4.66% -1.70% -0.94% -0.24% -0.40% -0.34%
-5.40%
1.56% 1.04%
1.75% 13.83% -13.93% -4.27% -9.27% -0.16% -1.46% -0.01%
2.16%
6.45% 4.47%
6.00% 4.85%
0.04% 2.88% 3.64% 5.92% 5.74% 3.96%
5.32%
8.05% 8.76%
7.91% 6.29%
7.37% 5.98% 9.79% 10.41% 8.87% 6.18%
9.41% 10.27% 6.60%
3.34% 5.36%
2.08% 2.14% 11.32% 9.70% 7.06% 3.77%
2.94%
4.75% 4.51%
3.92% 4.65%
3.88% 4.29% 4.10% 3.90% 3.56% 4.12%
3.81%
5.78% 4.74%
5.54% 8.78%
5.19% 7.21% 5.13% 5.27% 5.19% 5.10%
4.26%
3.72% 3.76%
4.53% 3.31%
3.69% 4.37% 5.40% 5.27% 4.83% 4.43%
1.54%
6.50% 5.68%
6.46% 5.88%
5.57% 6.12% 4.30% 3.05% 2.52% 2.73%
6.02%
7.42% 7.06%
7.69% 6.90%
7.71% 6.81% 7.60% 7.07% 6.17% 8.41%
3.47%
3.65% 3.74%
3.40% 3.60%
4.66% 4.23% 3.72% 3.57% 3.25% 3.50%
-0.37%
7.77% 7.29%
8.67% 5.71%
5.33% 7.11% 3.44% 2.01% 2.79% 2.83%
5.20% 10.47% 8.14%
6.69% 7.94%
5.35% 5.72% 9.89% 7.15% 6.60% 6.60%