SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9843093444208
R Square 0.9688648855141
Adjusted R Square 0.9664698767075
Standard Error 154.30322171234
Observations 29

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 2 19263539.36553 9631769.68276501 404.534999137103
Residual 26 619046.590001023 23809.4842308086
Total 28 19882585.955531

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 160.19222455835 45.1266058902038 3.54983986493701 0.001494165982485
Exports 9.1019885924957 1.98505622741574 4.58525479872438 0.000100457578502
Imports -4.0573875853095 1.67788716983938 -2.4181528163768 0.022905388649771
 1. MLRM

Significance F
2.5837832047902E-20

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

67.4331585948488 252.951290522 67.43315859485 252.951290522
5.02164711970438 13.1823300653 5.021647119704 13.1823300653
-7.50633402380565 -0.6084411468 -7.50633402381 -0.6084411468
Interpretion:-

1. R Square is 96% , which means that 96% variation in GDP is explained by Exports and Imports and remaining variation is ex

2. ANOVA is statistically significant at 1% level of significance.

3. Coefficient matrix and p-value:-

a.) INTERCEPT- The coefficient of intercept is positive and statistically significant at 1% level of significance.

b.) B1 - explains that by how much GDP changes with the change in Exports. The coefficient is positive and statistically signific
significance . This means that as we increase exports by 1$ , the GDP will increase by 9.101$

c.) B2 - explains that by how much GDP changes with the change in Imports. The coefficient is negative and hence t statistical
accurately explains our model as imports increase, GDP will decrease as the foreign reserves deplete leading to fall in the GDP
 remaining variation is explained by other variables than these two.

ve and statistically significant at 1% level of

tive and hence t statistically insignificant . And this

leading to fall in the GDP.
Year GDP (in Billion US $) Exports (in Billion US $) Imports (in Billion US $)
2020 2,667.69 499.1 509.43
2019 2,831.55 529.24 602.31
2018 2,702.93 538.64 640.3
2017 2,651.47 498.26 582.02
2016 2,294.80 439.64 480.17
2015 2,103.59 416.79 465.1
2014 2,039.13 468.35 529.24
2013 1,856.72 472.18 527.56
2012 1,827.64 448.4 571.31
2011 1,823.05 447.38 566.67
2010 1,675.62 375.35 449.97
2009 1,341.89 273.75 347.18
2008 1,198.90 288.9 350.93
2007 1,216.74 253.08 302.8
2006 940.26 199.97 229.96
2005 820.38 160.84 183.74
2004 709.15 126.65 139.31
2003 607.7 90.84 95.07
2002 514.94 73.45 78.5
2001 485.44 60.96 65.22
2000 468.39 60.88 65.12
1999 458.82 52.54 61.31
1998 421.35 46.43 53.43
1997 415.87 44.46 49.61
1996 392.9 40.8 45.36
1995 360.28 39.07 43.32
1994 327.28 32.36 33.35
1993 279.3 27.47 27.42
1992 288.21 25.49 27.64
1991 270.11 22.94 22.94
 GDP (in Billion Exports (in Imports (in
Year US $) Billion US $) Billion US $) log(yt) log(x1t) log(x2t)
2020 2,667.69 499.1 509.43 3.426135 2.698188 2.707085
2019 2,831.55 529.24 602.31 3.452024 2.723653 2.77982
2018 2,702.93 538.64 640.3 3.431835 2.731299 2.806384
2017 2,651.47 498.26 582.02 3.423487 2.697456 2.764938
2016 2,294.80 439.64 480.17 3.360745 2.643097 2.681395
2015 2,103.59 416.79 465.1 3.322961 2.619917 2.667546
2014 2,039.13 468.35 529.24 3.309445 2.670571 2.723653
2013 1,856.72 472.18 527.56 3.268746 2.674108 2.722272
2012 1,827.64 448.4 571.31 3.261891 2.651666 2.756872
2011 1,823.05 447.38 566.67 3.260799 2.650677 2.75333
2010 1,675.62 375.35 449.97 3.224176 2.574436 2.653184
2009 1,341.89 273.75 347.18 3.127717 2.437354 2.540555
2008 1,198.90 288.9 350.93 3.078783 2.460748 2.54522
2007 1,216.74 253.08 302.8 3.085198 2.403258 2.481156
2006 940.26 199.97 229.96 2.973248 2.300965 2.361652
2005 820.38 160.84 183.74 2.914015 2.206394 2.264204
2004 709.15 126.65 139.31 2.850738 2.102605 2.143982
2003 607.7 90.84 95.07 2.783689 1.958277 1.978043
2002 514.94 73.45 78.5 2.711757 1.865992 1.89487
2001 485.44 60.96 65.22 2.686136 1.785045 1.814381
2000 468.39 60.88 65.12 2.670608 1.784475 1.813714
1999 458.82 52.54 61.31 2.661642 1.72049 1.787531
1998 421.35 46.43 53.43 2.624643 1.666799 1.727785
1997 415.87 44.46 49.61 2.618958 1.647969 1.695569
1996 392.9 40.8 45.36 2.594282 1.61066 1.656673
1995 360.28 39.07 43.32 2.55664 1.591843 1.636688
1994 327.28 32.36 33.35 2.514919 1.510009 1.523096
1993 279.3 27.47 27.42 2.446071 1.438859 1.438067
1992 288.21 25.49 27.64 2.459709 1.40637 1.441538
1991 270.11 22.94 22.94 2.431541 1.360593 1.360593
2. DOUBLE LOG MODEL
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9906779619726
R Square 0.9814428243382
Adjusted R Square 0.9800682187336
Standard Error 0.0496401234542
Observations 30

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 2 3.51870287040885 1.759351435204 713.9813929665
Residual 27 0.06653183012677 0.002464141857
Total 29 3.58523470053562

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 1.4075730535476 0.042224598224373 33.33538062501 1.78362034E-23
log(x1t) 1.571157924495 0.403970461820053 3.88928912628 0.00059274559
log(x2t) -0.8345458227845 0.390582800658024 -2.13666813126 0.04183997894

Interpretation:-

1. R Square:- is 98% , which means that 98% variation in GDP is explained by Exports and imports and the remainin

2. ANOVA:- is statistically significant at 1% level of significance.

3. Coefficient marix and p-value:-

a.) INTERCEPT- The coefficient of the intercept is positive and statistically significant at 1% level of significance.

b.) B1- explains that by how much GDP changes with change in exports. The coefficient is positive and statistically s
we increase exports by 1$, the GDP will increase by 1.57% .

c.) B2 - explains that by how much GDP changes with change in Imports. The coefficient is negative and statistically
increase,GDP will decrease as this causes a fall in foreign reserves of our country, hence leading to decrease in GDP
 Significance F
4.21609476E-24

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

1.32093533536 1.49421077173784 1.32093533536 1.4942107717
0.74227901267 2.40003683631682 0.74227901267 2.4000368363
-1.6359555232 -0.0331361223645159 -1.6359555232 -0.033136122

nd imports and the remaining is explained by other variables.

1% level of significance.

is positive and statistically significant at 1% level of significance. This means that as

t is negative and statistically insignificant. And this accurately explains our relationship that as imports
leading to decrease in GDP.
A. State the reason for choosing this causal relationship.
The reason for for choosing this causal relationship is to show how much effect exports and imports have on the economic gro
our country's economic growth or basically any country's economic growth.

B. The number of observationsu used in this model are 30.

C. State the data source.

The data sources used are:- Macrotrends sourced from World Bank.
https://databank.worldbank.org/

D. Attach one research paper in the context of your chosen causal relationship.
https://store.ectap.ro/articole/1340.pdf Also, the pdf for the same research paper is attached with the assignme

E. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP ~ GDP = f{Exports, Imports}

orts have on the economic growth (GDP). As exports and imports play a very significant role in estimating

is attached with the assignment.

 3. Shift Analysis
Imports (in
Year Billion US $) Time Dummy SUMMARY OUTPUT
1991 22.94 1 0
1992 27.64 2 0 Regression Statistics
1993 27.42 3 0 Multiple R
1994 33.35 4 0 R Square
1995 43.32 5 0 Adjusted R Square
1996 45.36 6 0 Standard Error
1997 49.61 7 0 Observations
1998 53.43 8 0
1999 61.31 9 0 ANOVA
2000 65.12 10 0
2001 65.22 11 0 Regression
2002 78.5 12 0 Residual
2003 95.07 13 0 Total
2004 139.31 14 0
2005 183.74 15 0
2006 229.96 16 0 Intercept
2007 302.8 17 0 Time
2008 350.93 18 0 Dummy
2009 347.18 19 1
2010 449.97 20 1
2011 566.67 21 1 Causal Relationship:- Imports = f{T
2012 571.31 22 1
2013 527.56 23 1 Interpretation:-
2014 529.24 24 1
2015 465.1 25 1 1. R Square:- is 93% , which mean
2016 480.17 26 1
2017 582.02 27 1 2. ANOVA:- is statistically significa
2018 640.3 28 1
2019 602.31 29 1 3. Coefficient matrix and p-value:-
2020 509.43 30 1 B2 - The coefficient of B2(Dummy)

p-value ~ is statistically significant

2500

2000

1500

Year
1000 Imports (in Billion US $)

500
1500
Year
1000 Imports (in Billion US $)

500

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
 Regression Statistics
0.968582714435305
0.938152474702863
0.933571176532705
58.5295664089734
30

df SS MS F
2 1403025.22554139 701512.612770697 204.778741714262
27 92494.1738886055 3425.71014402243
29 1495519.39943

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

-38.9335351925631 26.1346315847177 -1.48972963580361 0.14788516874018
15.0633545816733 2.3365142914818 6.4469344940836 6.57449356725E-07
192.486347941567 41.2811743810163 4.66281182228393 7.53784259326E-05

lationship:- Imports = f{Time, Dummy}

re:- is 93% , which means that 93% variationin GDP is explained by Exports and Imports and the remaining is explained by other variables

A:- is statistically significant at 1% level of significance.

ient matrix and p-value:-

oefficient of B2(Dummy) is positive. Hence, there is a significant difference between the pre and post shift period.

is statistically significant at 1% level of significance.

 Significance F
4.817829352E-17

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

-92.55736920064 14.69029881552 -92.5573692 14.6903
10.26922331115 19.8574858522 10.2692233 19.85749
107.784375561 277.1883203222 107.784376 277.1883

maining is explained by other variables.

st shift period.