FACULTAD DE ECONOMA Y CONTABILIDAD

Escuela acadmico Profesional De Economa

ASIGNATURA:

Toma de decisiones

TEMA:

Pronsticos con Holt Winters (PBI-

PescaPer :2002-2015)mensual

DOCENTE:
Jos Luis Rodrguez Herrera
CICLO:
IX
ALUMNA: Milla Aranda Katherin Vanessa
 SIN FACTOR PRONOSTICO
Periodo(Trim PBI pesca
estre)
t
yt
TENDENCIA ESTACIONAL AL ULTIMO
FT TT WT (Y/WT) (SNt) PERIODO RECM
-3 0.632368629
-2 1.742726895
-1 0.444235241
0 340.7522689 10.94073979 1.180669236
(2002)1 1 275.2167388 353.5082119 12.75594302 351.693009 0.78254822 0.663802261 222.3996256 2789.64745
2 2 635.4615818 366.2287778 12.72056594 362.633748 1.75235092 1.741097233 638.2983933 8.04749953
3 3 211.7711712 381.0739718 14.84519401 373.574488 0.56687803 0.468211705 168.342653 1886.0362
4 4 406.551155 394.7981836 13.7242118 384.515228 1.05730833 1.148216574 467.4495791 3708.61806
(2003)1 5 172.642179 405.2963037 10.49812002 395.455968 0.43656486 0.612652771 271.1780899 9709.32574
2 6 648.7295966 414.8556363 9.559332597 406.396708 1.59629639 1.702956257 723.9385205 5656.38225
3 7 157.4106928 422.4976908 7.64205458 417.337447 0.37717845 0.447643257 198.7160563 1706.13305
4 8 438.2181311 429.0859389 6.5882481 428.278187 1.02320908 1.120918067 493.8935848 3099.75615
(2004)1 9 266.8068629 435.6702801 6.584341205 439.218927 0.60745757 0.612599586 266.9169979 0.01212971
2 10 846.3491303 443.4441491 7.773869001 450.159667 1.88010875 1.747178184 753.1402747 8687.89077
3 11 294.0951837 455.6899782 12.24582901 461.100407 0.63781159 0.490169693 201.9847033 8484.3406
4 12 580.749664 469.0260677 13.33608955 472.041146 1.23029458 1.146141586 524.5177003 3162.03374
(2005)1 13 297.7645006 482.4426769 13.41660917 482.981886 0.61651277 0.613589349 295.4948579 5.15127814
2 14 916.5856119 496.484108 14.04143111 493.922626 1.85572712 1.76846382 866.3545271 2523.16188
3 15 258.9478944 510.9114444 14.42733641 504.863366 0.51290688 0.493753793 250.2441468 75.7552211
4 16 612.7028755 525.5395924 14.62814807 515.804106 1.18785963 1.150381141 602.1126236 112.153435
(2006)1 17 401.4343084 542.6468662 17.10727379 526.744845 0.76210391 0.640726083 331.4411723 4899.03909
2 18 885.930758 558.4763772 15.82951092 537.685585 1.64767437 1.729295031 989.9049448 10810.6315
3 19 208.4248944 570.9984907 12.52211357 548.626325 0.3799032 0.466067783 283.5657104 5646.14224
4 20 667.2109542 583.4438998 12.4454091 559.567065 1.19236995 1.148917071 671.2710988 16.4847738
(2007)1 21 371.81 595.550392 12.1064922 570.507805 0.65171764 0.637196319 381.8018227 99.83652
2 22 1027.396 607.3625259 11.81213385 581.448544 1.76695945 1.72118176 1050.818031 548.591518
3 23 215.474 615.7657997 8.403273795 592.389284 0.36373717 0.44109073 288.577361 5344.1014
4 24 749.321 624.77822 9.01242031 603.330024 1.24197532 1.159760911 717.118504 1037.00075
(2008)1 25 413.918 634.1340648 9.355844808 614.270764 0.6738364 0.6405369 403.8490631 101.38349
2 26 1023.75 642.4316163 8.297551484 625.211504 1.63744588 1.693734159 1107.563095 7024.63497
3 27 232.451 648.0399662 5.608349903 636.152243 0.36540153 0.423371371 287.0306036 2978.93313
4 28 765.88 653.7945617 5.754595469 647.092983 1.18357024 1.162272267 758.0757664 60.9060628
(2009)1 29 316.115 655.9407412 2.146179557 658.033723 0.48039331 0.606425885 422.4655723 11310.4442
2 30 1038.296 657.1075182 1.166776984 668.974463 1.5520712 1.669295996 1114.624298 5826.00901
3 31 240.791 656.3285828 -0.778935359 679.915202 0.35414857 0.411221342 278.6944909 1436.67462
4 32 756.798 655.4537382 -0.874844623 690.855942 1.09544979 1.160625907 761.9271751 26.3084371
(2010)1 33 375.436 653.8077474 -1.645990783 701.796682 0.53496406 0.599501792 396.9535846 463.006448
2 34 826.09 648.7433967 -5.064350742 712.737422 1.15903834 1.584147555 1088.651009 68938.2836
3 35 297.022 645.3875522 -3.355844525 723.678162 0.41043383 0.421759632 264.6945612 1045.0633
 4 36 392.453 635.4271909 -9.960361284 734.618901 0.53422666 1.043846566 745.158633 124401.264
(2011)1 37 550.137 631.817016 -3.610174882 745.559641 0.73788463 0.657830741 374.9684851 30684.0086
2 38 1103.566 629.6939035 -2.123112476 756.500381 1.45877785 1.620363002 995.1723315 11749.1874
3 39 401.022 634.5962183 4.902314736 767.441121 0.52254432 0.466959667 264.6840258 18588.0432
4 40 837.274 643.0324579 8.436239652 778.381861 1.0756597 1.099380648 667.5383478 28810.1916
(2012)1 41 369.588 649.5205397 6.488081792 789.3226 0.46823441 0.638730276 428.5561357 3477.24103
2 42 802.662 652.5172215 2.996681768 800.26334 1.00299734 1.536432763 1062.972099 67761.3477
3 43 389.102 659.3770185 6.859797 811.20408 0.47965982 0.493443555 306.0985541 6889.57202
4 44 398.649 659.6381262 0.261107776 822.14482 0.48488902 0.992917692 732.447862 111421.68
(2013)1 45 423.6490797 659.9724383 0.334312084 833.08556 0.5085301 0.639416122 421.4976199 4.6287791
2 46 725.8146859 656.2230159 -3.749422463 844.026299 0.85994321 1.443873879 1014.516925 83348.9829
3 47 415.466541 656.5920129 0.368997032 854.967039 0.48594451 0.523405567 321.9588893 8743.68092
4 48 880.2022955 661.9491739 5.357160951 865.907779 1.01650813 1.06534925 652.3082098 51935.7143
(2014)1 49 403.4956018 666.5181037 4.568929845 876.848519 0.46016569 0.63209591 426.6864291 537.814469
2 50 660.926469 666.4504643 -0.067639387 887.789259 0.74446324 1.346631261 968.965038 94887.76
3 51 352.4015961 666.5328502 0.082385904 898.729998 0.39211064 0.524546026 348.7884801 13.0546071
4 52 345.2441587 659.1706065 -7.362243704 909.670738 0.37952651 0.948873431 710.1780421 133176.739
(2015)1 53 366.3249365 650.2377525 -8.932853974 920.611478 0.3979148 0.617315797 412.0054 2086.70474
2 54 902.533971 641.9332278 -8.304524744 931.552218 0.96884958 1.359391083 863.6012243 1515.75876
3 55 276.327384 631.3068448 -10.62638299 942.492958 0.29318774 0.505870308 332.3674181 3140.48542
4 56 496.4894154 618.5628024 -12.74404236 953.433697 0.52073827 0.91742644 588.9471994 8548.44182
(2016)1 57 373.9814908
2 58 806.2204827
3 59 293.5720574
4 60 520.7189841
131.675346

ALFA 0.02173306
BETA 1
GAMA 0.21506119

Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.32638038
correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de0.10652415
determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado 0.0721597
Error tpico 265.611367
Observaciones 28

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crtico de F
Regresin 1 218691.511 218691.5113 3.09983525 0.0900602
Residuos 26 1834284.35 70549.39824
Total 27 2052975.87

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%
Intercepcin 340.752269 103.142626 3.303699757 0.00278272 128.739565 552.764973 128.739565 552.764973
Variable X 1 10.9407398 6.21408777 1.760634899 0.0900602 -1.83250055 23.7139801 -1.83250055 23.7139801
 FACTOR FACTOR
ESTACIONA ESTACIONAL
TRIMESTRE 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 L CORREGIDO
1 0.78254822 0.436565 0.607458 0.616513 0.762104 0.651718 0.673836 0.480393 0.534964 0.737885 0.468234 0.508530 0.460166 0.397915 0.571211 0.632368629
2 1.75235092 1.596296 1.880109 1.855727 1.647674 1.766959 1.637446 1.552071 1.159038 1.458778 1.002997 0.859943 0.744463 0.968850 1.574184 1.742726895
3 0.56687803 0.377178 0.637812 0.512907 0.379903 0.363737 0.365402 0.354149 0.410434 0.522544 0.479660 0.485945 0.392111 0.293188 0.401272 0.444235241
4 1.05730833 1.023209 1.230295 1.187860 1.192370 1.241975 1.183570 1.095450 0.534227 1.075660 0.484889 1.016508 0.379527 0.520738 1.066484 1.180669236
SUMA 3.61 4.00

FACTOR DE
CORRECCION 1.107067

Para fines del ao 2016 el PBI del sector pesca ser 520.7189 millones de soles.