Years Agricultural production Agricultural area Land improvements

y x1 x2
1994 644.38 401.03 33.321
1995 584.18 394.95 30.311
1996 689.79 405.26 35.591
1997 764.81 411.66 39.342
1998 435.63 376.76 22.884
1999 589.05 395.47 30.554
2000 517.41 387.43 26.973
2001 516.31 387.3 26.918
2002 519.89 387.72 27.097
2003 400.29 371.52 21.117
2004 673.91 403.81 35.116
2005 655.14 402.06 34.059
2006 670.06 403.46 34.605
2007 388.92 369.73 20.748
2008 637.86 400.4 32.995
2009 532.23 381.08 40.11

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.997429423425864
R Square 0.994865454715652
Adjusted R 0.993581818394565
Standard E 8.76793806148296
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 3 178746.9149208 59582.3049736
Residual 12 922.520854200019 76.8767378500016
Total 15 179669.435775

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept -2287.13900106419 97.9564869321342 -23.3485200694136
X Variable 6.97256954544987 0.284866377875349 24.4766321580461
X Variable 4.1424427182494 0.604589519614708 6.85166147254635
X Variable -0.005912088190728 0.006671448245639 -0.886177629361475

y th=-2287,139+6,9725x1+4,14244x2-0,0059x3
Breeding Services
x3
0.925
1,366
0.502 y=Agricultural production
0.427 x1=agricultural area
0.954 x2=land improvements
0.963 x3=breeding services
0.788
1.124
1.343
0.673
0.739
0.724
0.596
0.64
0.517
1.875

F Significance F
775.036853018585 5.361786314E-14

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%
2.27299403895259E-11 -2500.567851296 -2073.71 -2500.568 -2073.71
1.30433523640079E-11 6.351899027307 7.59324 6.351899 7.59324
1.76804552741113E-05 2.8251553177433 5.45973 2.825155 5.45973
0.392934716626077 -0.020447925204 0.008624 -0.020448 0.008624
 Years Agricultural production Agricultural area Land improvements Breeding Services
y x1 x2 x3
1994 644.38 401.03 33.321 0.925
1995 584.18 394.95 30.311 1,366
1996 689.79 405.26 35.591 0.502
1997 764.81 411.66 39.342 0.427
1998 435.63 376.76 22.884 0.954
1999 589.05 395.47 30.554 0.963
2000 517.41 387.43 26.973 0.788
2001 516.31 387.3 26.918 1.124
2002 519.89 387.72 27.097 1.343
2003 400.29 371.52 21.117 0.673
2004 673.91 403.81 35.116 0.739
2005 655.14 402.06 34.059 0.724
2006 670.06 403.46 34.605 0.596
2007 388.92 369.73 20.748 0.64
2008 637.86 400.4 32.995 0.517
2009 532.23 381.08 40.11 1.875

r y xi 0.986798137612858 0.858656361581666 0.018972631755525

0.778504152462647 0.051357893249095
-0.018744409074758

Agriculture production
900
800
700
Agricultural production

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20
Years

Strong positive correlation between agriculture production and agricultural area

900

800

700
roduction

600

500
 Strong positive correlation between agriculture production and agricultural area

900

800

Agricultural production 700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
365 370 375 380 385 390 395 400 405 4

Agricultural area

Weak positive correlation betw

900

800

700
Agricultural production

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

cultural area Strong positive correlation between Agricultural production and

900

800

700
roduction

600

500
cultural area Strong positive correlation between Agricultural production and

900

800

700

Agricultural production
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
400 405 410 415 15 20 25 30

Land improvements

sitive correlation between Agricultural production and Breeding services

1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5
Breeding services
gricultural production and land improvements
gricultural production and land improvements

30 35 40 45

nd improvements

4.6 4.8 5
 Years Agricultural production Agricultural area Land improvements Breeding Services
y x1 x2 x3
1994 644.38 401.03 33.321 0.925
1995 584.18 394.95 30.311 1,366
1996 689.79 405.26 35.591 0.502
1997 764.81 411.66 39.342 0.427
1998 435.63 376.76 22.884 0.954
1999 589.05 395.47 30.554 0.963
2000 517.41 387.43 26.973 0.788
2001 516.31 387.3 26.918 1.124
2002 519.89 387.72 27.097 1.343
2003 400.29 371.52 21.117 0.673
2004 673.91 403.81 35.116 0.739
2005 655.14 402.06 34.059 0.724
2006 670.06 403.46 34.605 0.596
2007 388.92 369.73 20.748 0.64
2008 637.86 400.4 32.995 0.517
2009 532.23 381.08 40.11 1.875

Sample 1-16 RSS 922.520854200019

SUMMARY OUTPUT RSS1 0.000173039248593
RSS2 37.1925314557438
Regression Statistics N 16
Multiple R 0.997429423425864 n1 8
R Square 0.994865454715652 n2 8
Adjusted R 0.993581818394565 F* 47.6076242223379
Standard E 8.76793806148296 !!!!! F theo 3.49029481949761
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 3 178746.9149208 59582.3049736 775.036853018585
Residual 12 922.52085420002 76.8767378500016
Total 15 179669.435775

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept -2287.13900106419 97.956486932134 -23.3485200694136 2.272994038953E-11
X Variable 6.97256954544987 0.2848663778753 24.4766321580461 1.304335236401E-11
X Variable 4.1424427182494 0.6045895196147 6.85166147254635 1.768045527411E-05
X Variable -0.005912088190728 0.0066714482456 -0.886177629361475 0.392934716626077

Sample 1-8

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99999999889049
R Square 0.999999997780981
Adjusted R 0.999999996116716
Standard E 0.006577219180488
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 3 77980.056226961 25993.3520756536 600866041.364636
Residual 4 0.0001730392486 4.32598121481781E-05
Total 7 77980.0564

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept -22.3360011956717 0.8710009906449 -25.64405946213 1.373454341171E-05
X Variable 0.000758967357007 0.0026376743161 0.287741118145143 0.787837438500812
X Variable 19.9998772269597 0.005571363255 3589.76363801608 3.61316345678E-14
X Variable -2.32366829367021E-08 5.495064883E-06 -0.004228645781849 0.996828527478526

Sample 9-16
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999808972175245
R Square 0.999617980842119
Adjusted R 0.999331466473709
Standard E 3.04928399201123
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 3 97320.572618544 32440.1908728481 3488.89302267036
Residual 4 37.192531455744 9.29813286393594
Total 7 97357.76515

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept -2040.14414522277 60.63236011277 -33.6477772171215 4.653425424108E-06
X Variable 6.32557627244235 0.1732995919325 36.5008145830366 3.363341784291E-06
X Variable 4.80442516026584 0.3739328063354 12.8483649438253 0.000211554155641
X Variable -16.3369486188143 4.2275829561507 -3.86437091554777 0.018079848567269
 Chow test:
H0:RSS-(RSS1+RSS2)=0
H1:RSS-(RSS1+RSS2)≠0 885.3281

We accept H1 because F*>F theo

am calculat bine???

Significance F
5.36E-14

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

-2500.568 -2073.71 -2500.568 -2073.71
6.351899 7.59324 6.351899 7.59324
2.825155 5.45973 2.825155 5.45973
-0.020448 0.008624 -0.020448 0.008624
Significance F
9.23E-18

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

-24.75429 -19.91771 -24.75429 -19.91771
-0.006564 0.008082 -0.006564 0.008082
19.98441 20.01535 19.98441 20.01535
-1.53E-05 1.52E-05 -1.53E-05 1.52E-05

Significance F
2.74E-07

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

-2208.487 -1871.802 -2208.487 -1871.802
5.844419 6.806733 5.844419 6.806733
3.766221 5.842629 3.766221 5.842629
-28.0746 -4.599297 -28.0746 -4.599297
 Years Agricultural production Agricultural area
y x1
1994 644.38 401.03
1995 584.18 394.95
1996 689.79 405.26
1997 764.81 411.66
1998 435.63 376.76
1999 589.05 395.47
2000 517.41 387.43
2001 516.31 387.3
2002 519.89 387.72
2003 400.29 371.52
2004 673.91 403.81
2005 655.14 402.06
2006 670.06 403.46
2007 388.92 369.73
2008 637.86 400.4
2009 532.23 381.08

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.997429423425864
R Square 0.994865454715652
Adjusted R Squar 0.993581818394565
Standard Error 8.76793806148296
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS
Regression 3 178746.9149208
Residual 12 922.520854200019
Total 15 179669.435775

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept -2287.13900106419 97.9564869321342
X Variable 1 6.97256954544987 0.284866377875349
X Variable 2 4.1424427182494 0.604589519614708
X Variable 3 -0.005912088190728 0.006671448245639

Residual evolution
25

20

15

10
et

0
 20

15

10
et

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
-5

-10

Correlation of residuals
25

20

15

10

0
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-5

-10
 Land improvements Breeding Services
x2 x3 y theo et et-1 et^2
33.321 0.925 647.0954 -2.715429 7.373554
30.311 1,366 584.163 0.01699 -2.715429 0.000289
35.591 0.502 685.9952 3.794756 0.01699 14.40017
39.342 0.427 746.1584 18.65157 3.794756 347.8809
22.884 0.954 434.6363 0.99368 18.65157 0.9874
30.554 0.963 596.8656 -7.815579 0.99368 61.08327
26.973 0.788 525.9731 -8.563067 -7.815579 73.32611
26.918 1.124 524.8368 -8.526812 -8.563067 72.70652
27.097 1.343 528.5055 -8.615493 -8.526812 74.22673
21.117 0.673 390.782 9.507979 -8.615493 90.40167
35.116 0.739 673.916 -0.005957 9.507979 3.55E-05
34.059 0.724 657.3355 -2.195487 -0.005957 4.820161
34.605 0.596 669.3596 0.700386 -2.195487 0.49054
20.748 0.64 376.7728 12.14725 0.700386 147.5556
32.995 0.517 641.3547 -3.494686 12.14725 12.21283
40.11 1.875 536.1101 -3.880094 -3.494686 15.05513
Sum-> 922.5209

MS F Significance F
59582.3049736 775.036853018585 5.36E-14
76.8767378500016

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

-23.3485200694136 2.27299403895259E-11 -2500.568 -2073.71 -2500.568 -2073.71
24.4766321580461 1.30433523640079E-11 6.351899 7.59324 6.351899 7.59324
6.85166147254635 1.76804552741113E-05 2.825155 5.45973 2.825155 5.45973
-0.886177629361475 0.392934716626077 -0.020448 0.008624 -0.020448 0.008624

evolution
 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

n of residuals

10 15 20 25
 (et-et-1)^2 DW DL DU
1.56141594 0.857 1,728
7.466115
14.27151 NO AUTOCORRELATION??cum imi dau seama ca e autocorrelation sau nu???
220.7248
311.8009
77.60304
0.558738
0.001314
0.007864
328.4603
90.51498
4.794042
8.386076
131.0306
244.67
0.148539
1440.439

Upper 95,0%
 Years Agricultural production Agricultural area Land improvements
y x1 x2
1994 644.38 401.03 33.321
1995 584.18 394.95 30.311
1996 689.79 405.26 35.591
1997 764.81 411.66 39.342
1998 435.63 376.76 22.884
1999 589.05 395.47 30.554
2000 517.41 387.43 26.973
2001 516.31 387.3 26.918
2002 519.89 387.72 27.097
2003 400.29 371.52 21.117
2004 673.91 403.81 35.116
2005 655.14 402.06 34.059
2006 670.06 403.46 34.605
2007 388.92 369.73 20.748
2008 637.86 400.4 32.995
2009 532.23 381.08 40.11
2010 500.25 42.12
2011 425.87 41.1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.997429423425864
R Square 0.994865454715652
Adjusted R 0.993581818394565
Standard E 8.76793806148296 76.8767378500016 variance
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 3 178746.9149208 59582.3049736
Residual 12 922.520854200019 76.8767378500016
Total 15 179669.435775

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept -2287.13900106419 97.9564869321342 -23.3485200694136
X Variable 6.97256954544987 0.284866377875349 24.4766321580461
X Variable 4.1424427182494 0.604589519614708 6.85166147254635
X Variable -0.005912088190728 0.006671448245639 -0.886177629361475

Matrix X

1 401.03 33.321 0.925

1 394.95 30.311 1,366
1 405.26 35.591 0.502
1 411.66 39.342 0.427
 1 376.76 22.884 0.954
1 395.47 30.554 0.963
1 387.43 26.973 0.788
1 387.3 26.918 1.124
1 387.72 27.097 1.343
1 371.52 21.117 0.673
1 403.81 35.116 0.739
1 402.06 34.059 0.724
1 403.46 34.605 0.596
1 369.73 20.748 0.64
1 400.4 32.995 0.517
1 381.08 40.11 1.875

Matrix X'

1 1 1 1
401.03 394.95 405.26 411.66
33.321 30.311 35.591 39.342
0.925 1,366 0.502 0.427

X'X

16 6279.64 491.741 1378.79

6279.64 2467049.1394 193888.24179 544491.62789
491.741 193888.24179 15651.695521 41800.459452
1378.79 544491.62789 41800.459452 1865968.886368

(X'X)^(-1)

124.8163 -0.360314925655029 0.539832322917665 0.000818713974184

-0.360315 0.001055570976517 -0.001748857074163 -2.59806786321E-06
0.539832 -0.001748857074163 0.004754734623899 4.915695517726E-06
0.000819 -2.59806786320713E-06 4.91569551772618E-06 5.78955649511E-07

Xt+h,(X19)

1
500.25
42.12
0.23

X19'

1 500.25 42.12 0.23

Xt+h,(X20)

1
425.87
 41.1
0.45

X20'

1 425.87 41.1 0.45

X19'*[(X'*X)^(-1)

-32.69327 0.094071997828274 -0.134762875463725 -0.00027378721938

8.689969

X20'*[(X'*X)^(-1)

-6.443497 0.017341891235653 -0.009531634150853 -8.54295708995E-05

0.550106

Icyt+h add 1 *tau^2=var

19 8.68996948933115 9.68996948933115 744.933244205824
20 0.550105792869251 1.55010579286925 119.167076678178
 Breeding Services
x3 y theo Lower limit Upper limit
0.925 647.0954288808 647.0954289 647.0954288808
1,366 584.1630096756 584.1630097 584.1630096756
0.502 685.9952438418 685.9952438 685.9952438418
0.427 746.1584349754 746.158435 746.1584349754
0.954 434.6363199118 434.6363199 434.6363199118
0.963 596.8655785473 596.8655785 596.8655785473
0.788 525.9730666433 525.9730666 525.9730666433
1.124 524.8368117913 524.8368118 524.8368117913
1.343 528.5054934996 528.5054935 528.5054934996
0.673 390.7820205073 390.7820205 390.7820205073
0.739 673.9159565448 673.9159565 673.9159565448 3000
0.724 657.3354865684 657.3354866 657.3354865684
0.596 669.3596144035 669.3596144 669.3596144035
0.64 376.7727547568 376.7727548 376.7727547568
2500
0.517 641.354685873 641.3546859 641.354685873
1.875 536.1100935795 536.1100936 536.1100935795
0.23 1375.367241559 1315.899889 2691.26713098
0.45 852.5209265369 828.7362053 1681.25713181 2000

1500

1000

500

F Significance F 0
775.036853018585 5.36178631E-14 0 2 4

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

2.27299403895259E-11 -2500.5678513 -2073.710151 -2500.5678513 -2073.71
1.30433523640079E-11 6.351899027307 7.593240064 6.351899027307 7.59324
1.76804552741113E-05 2.825155317743 5.459730119 2.825155317743 5.45973
0.392934716626077 -0.0204479252 0.008623749 -0.0204479252 0.008624
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
376.76 395.47 387.43 387.3 387.72 371.52 403.81
22.884 30.554 26.973 26.918 27.097 21.117 35.116
0.954 0.963 0.788 1.124 1.343 0.673 0.739
after sq root t value t*sqrt lim inf lim sup
27.2934652289852 2.178812829667 59.46735221 1315.899889353 2691.267
10.9163673755594 2.178812829667 23.78472129 828.7362052457 1681.257
 Forecasting th eagricultural production
3000

2500

2000

Y theoretical
Lower limit
1500 Upper limit

1000

500

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
 1 1 1 1 1
402.06 403.46 369.73 400.4 381.08
34.059 34.605 20.748 32.995 40.11
0.724 0.596 0.64 0.517 1.875