COMMUNITY ANALYSIS

FORREST, LAMAR & PERRY COUNTIES

Population Forrest Lamar Perry

2011 Projection 77,346 49,781 12,357

2006 Estimate 75,133 44,847 12,255
2000 Census 72,604 39,070 12,138
1990 Census 68,314 30,424 10,865

Growth 2006-2011 2.95% 11.00% 0.83%

Growth 2000-2006 3.48% 14.79% 0.96%
Growth 1990-2000 6.28% 28.42% 11.72%

2006 Population by Age

2006 Est. Median Age 31.43 33.76 34.80

2006 Est. Average Age 35.11 35.21 36.17

Households

2011 Projection 29,514 18,802 4,634

2006 Estimate 28,474 16,793 4,549
2000 Census 27,183 14,396 4,420
1990 Census 25,150 10,883 3,802

Growth 2006-2011 3.65% 11.96% 1.87%

Growth 2000-2006 4.75% 16.65% 2.92%
Growth 1990-2000 8.08% 32.28% 16.25%

2006 Household Size

2006 Est. Average Household Size 2.44 2.64 2.67

2006 Income by Household

Average Family Household Income $54,386 $75,200 $43,676

Median Family Household Income $42,054 $57,308 $37,323

2006 Housing Values

Median Owner-Occupied Value $77,860 $107,488 $56,889

TRADE AREAS

In calculating a trade area, first competing cities were identified. Competing cities are defined
as communities whose population or retail sales are 90 percent or larger than the community the
trade area is being calculated for. This technique is used to compare communities that offer the
same order of goods. Order of goods is a term that refers to the availability of an item within various
communities. For example, groceries are available in most every community. Therefore, groceries
are in low order of goods. As appliances are not available in every community, this makes appli-
ances a higher order of goods than groceries.
FORREST COUNTY

The geographic size and shape of trade areas were determined by using Reilly’s Law. Reilly’s Law
uses population and distance of competing communities to estimate the distance residents will
travel to purchase goods and services from a community. Once these distances have been es-
tablished in several directions, the boundary of the trade area takes its size in these cases square
miles, and shape. In order to be more reflective of travel patterns among rural populations who
may not use primary arteries for much of their commute, in this study, straight line distances were
used in place of highway distances.

Reilly’s Law can be modified to determine trade areas based on factors other than population, as
was done to determine the trade area based on retail sales. Comparing two areas allows communi-
ties to gain understanding as to where competing communities are impinging on their trade area.
LAMAR COUNTY
PERRY COUNTY
TRADE AREA POPULATION

Once the geographic trade area is defined, the trade area population can be determined. This
is preformed by removing the urban population from county population to determine how many
residents live in rural areas per square mile. The rural residents per square mile are then multiplied
times the number of square miles the trade area encompasses within the county and the urban
areas within the trade area are added to rural population. This process is repeated for each county
the trade area comes into contact with. The individual county portions within the trade area are
added to derive at the total trade area population.

FORREST COUNTY

Hattiesburg
Trade Area Size Trade Area Population
Based on Population 3,757.39 251,306.00
Based on Retail Sales 5,086.76 295,198.00

LAMAR COUNTY

Lumberton
Trade Area Size Trade Area Population
Based on Population 215.37 14,940.00
Based on Retail Sales 77.05 6,649.00

Purvis
Trade Area Size Trade Area Population
Based on Population 168.67 13,509.62
Based on Retail Sales 144.27 12,143.02

Sumrall
Trade Area Size Trade Area Population
Based on Population 124.93 7,782.00
Based on Retail Sales 64.75 4,547.92
PERRY COUNTY

Beaumont
Trade Area Size Trade Area Population
Based on Population 251.01 5,501.00
Based on Retail Sales 112.81 3,226.00

New Augusta
Trade Area Size Trade Area Population
Based on Population 70.28 1,738.00
Based on Retail Sales 42.93 1,333.00

Richton
Trade Area Size Trade Area Population
Based on Population 169.08 3,534.00
Based on Retail Sales 177.89 3,658.00

POTENTIAL SALES & PORTION CAPTURED

Potential sales estimate what local sales would be for a given sector if everyone within the com-
munity’s trade area purchased goods and services locally. Spending patterns used to calculate
potential sales are based on state spending patterns.

Portion captured is simply the percent of potential sales that a community is getting.

LAMAR COUNTY

Lumberton
Sector Potential Sales Portion Captured
Automotive $16,007,580 6.3%
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $5,870,339 0.0%
Food and Beverage $17,365,746 29.9%
Furniture and Fixtures $2,002,151 0.0%
Public Utilities $9,602,996 0.0%
Apparel and General Merchandise $17,261,945 8.7%
Lumber and Building Materials $6,967,646 0.0%
Miscellaneous Retail $8,640,202 16.6%
Miscellaneous Services $5,193,331 0.0%
Wholesale $1,975,923 0.0%
Contracting $11,591,358 0.0%
Recreation $288,913 0.0%
Total Retail $100,661,984 14.6%
Total for City $102,637,907 14.3%
Purvis
Sector Potential Sales Portion Captured
Automotive $15,231,428 67.9%
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $5,585,707 0.0%
Food and Beverage $16,523,741 73.5%
Furniture and Fixtures $1,905,073 0.0%
Public Utilities $9,137,380 0.0%
Apparel and General Merchandise $16,424,973 22.0%
Lumber and Building Materials $6,629,809 39.9%
Miscellaneous Retail $8,221,269 25.4%
Miscellaneous Services $4,941,524 30.2%
Wholesale $1,880,118 0.0%
Contracting $11,029,331 0.9%
Recreation $274,905 0.0%
Total Retail $95,781,232 38.9%
Total for City $97,661,350 38.2%

Sumrall
Sector Potential Sales Portion Captured
Automotive $10,460,267 33.5%
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $3,836,015 0.0%
Food and Beverage $11,347,770 50.9%
Furniture and Fixtures $1,308,320 0.0%
Public Utilities $6,275,146 0.0%
Apparel and General Merchandise $11,279,941 20.8%
Lumber and Building Materials $4,553,058 14.0%
Miscellaneous Retail $5,646,002 25.0%
Miscellaneous Services $3,393,619 0.0%
Wholesale $1,291,181 0.0%
Contracting $7,574,455 0.0%
Recreation $188,792 0.0%
Total Retail $65,778,291 28.0%
Total for City $67,069,472 27.5%
PERRY COUNTY

Beaumont
Sector Potential Sales Portion Captured
Automotive $5,556,487 0.0%
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $2,037,689 0.0%
Food and Beverage $6,027,928 61.9%
Furniture and Fixtures $694,979 0.0%
Public Utilities $3,333,354 0.0%
Apparel and General Merchandise $5,991,897 0.0%
Lumber and Building Materials $2,418,582 0.0%
Miscellaneous Retail $2,999,153 1.6%
Miscellaneous Services $1,802,688 0.0%
Wholesale $685,875 0.0%
Contracting $4,023,546 0.0%
Recreation $100,286 0.0%
Total Retail $34,941,386 17.8%
Total for City $35,627,260 17.5%

New Augusta
Sector Potential Sales Portion Captured
Automotive $2,437,233 0.0%
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $893,788 0.0%
Food and Beverage $2,644,021 136.6%
Furniture and Fixtures $304,837 0.0%
Public Utilities $1,462,104 0.0%
Apparel and General Merchandise $2,628,217 0.0%
Lumber and Building Materials $1,060,859 0.0%
Miscellaneous Retail $1,315,514 18.6%
Miscellaneous Services $790,710 0.0%
Wholesale $300,844 0.0%
Contracting $1,764,842 0.0%
Recreation $43,988 0.0%
Total Retail $15,326,285 43.3%
Total for City $15,627,129 42.5%
Richton
Sector Potential Sales Portion Captured
Automotive $5,420,940 56.0%
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $1,987,980 0.0%
Food and Beverage $5,880,880 127.7%
Furniture and Fixtures $678,025 0.0%
Public Utilities $3,252,038 0.0%
Apparel and General Merchandise $5,845,728 46.8%
Lumber and Building Materials $2,359,581 0.0%
Miscellaneous Retail $2,925,990 19.0%
Miscellaneous Services $1,758,713 0.0%
Wholesale $669,143 0.0%
Contracting $3,925,394 0.0%
Recreation $97,840 0.0%
Total Retail $34,089,009 55.0%
Total for City $34,758,152 54.0%

TRADE AREA CAPTURE

Trade area capture uses local retail sales for a given sector, state per capita expenditure for the
sector, and adjusted relative income for calculations. Trade area capture gives an estimate of the
number of customers available for goods and services with a given sector. Because the calcula-
tions are based on actual sales and expenditures, the trade area capture is not showing potential
customers. Instead, the trade area capture is showing the number of people who are currently
purchasing goods and services in the given area.

PULL FACTOR

Pull factors are a tool that allows communities to see where they clearly have an advantage. Pull
factors are ratios of the trade area capture and the communities local population. A pull factor
above one indicates that a community is capturing a greater number of customers within a given
sector than reside within the community. Essentially, the community has an advantage within that
sector. A pull factor of less than one indicates that a community does not have an advantage
within that sector, given that the communities own residents are not purchasing all goods or ser-
vices within the sector locally. Thus, a pull factor of less than one shows that there is demand that
is not being met by the local economy. Therefore, there may be room in the local economy for
expansion of the sector.
FORREST COUNTY

Hattiesburg
Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005
Automotive 201,279.38 4.41
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies 180,359.90 3.95
Food and Beverage 184,286.10 4.03
Furniture and Fixtures 337,866.48 7.39
Public Utilities 118,235.36 2.59
Apparel and General Merchandise 283,169.76 6.20
Lumber and Building Materials 264,416.85 5.79
Miscellaneous Retail 207,341.35 4.54
Miscellaneous Services 153,448.20 3.36
Wholesale - -
Contracting 5,226.60 0.11
Recreation 333,975.24 7.31
Total Retail 186,453.55 4.08
Total for City 182,864.06 4.00

Petal
Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005
Automotive 7,574 0.96
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies 3,946 0.50
Food and Beverage 17,296 2.18
Furniture and Fixtures 17,312 2.19
Public Utilities - -
Apparel and General Merchandise 36,003 4.55
Lumber and Building Materials 17,488 2.21
Miscellaneous Retail 9,749 1.23
Miscellaneous Services 10,121 1.28
Wholesale - -
Contracting 770 0.10
Recreation 23,270 2.94
Total Retail 15,215 1.92
Total for City 14,922 1.88
LAMAR COUNTY

Lumberton
Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005
Automotive 947.50 0.42
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -
Food and Beverage 4,467.71 1.98
Furniture and Fixtures - -
Public Utilities - -
Apparel and General Merchandise 1,304.27 0.58
Lumber and Building Materials - -
Miscellaneous Retail 2,484.84 1.10
Miscellaneous Services - -
Wholesale - -
Contracting - -
Recreation - -
Total Retail 2,180.80 0.97
Total for City 2,138.82 0.95

Purvis
Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005
Automotive 9,172.65 4.05
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -
Food and Beverage 9,927.53 4.39
Furniture and Fixtures - -
Public Utilities - -
Apparel and General Merchandise 2,965.92 1.31
Lumber and Building Materials 5,391.90 2.38
Miscellaneous Retail 3,426.07 1.51
Miscellaneous Services 4,086.01 1.81
Wholesale - -
Contracting 125.93 0.06
Recreation - -
Total Retail 5,261.56 2.33
Total for City 5,160.27 2.28
Sumrall
Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005
Automotive 2,608.46 2.28
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -
Food and Beverage 3,957.46 3.47
Furniture and Fixtures - -
Public Utilities - -
Apparel and General Merchandise 1,616.30 1.42
Lumber and Building Materials 1,092.78 0.10
Miscellaneous Retail 1,945.75 1.70
Miscellaneous Services - -
Wholesale - -
Contracting - -
Recreation - -
Total Retail 2,181.83 1.91
Total for City 2,139.83 1.87

PERRY COUNTY

Beaumont
Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005
Automotive - -
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -
Food and Beverage 3,405.70 3.65
Furniture and Fixtures - -
Public Utilities - -
Apparel and General Merchandise - -
Lumber and Building Materials - -
Miscellaneous Retail 89.50 0.10
Miscellaneous Services - -
Wholesale - -
Contracting - -
Recreation - -
Total Retail 979.26 1.05
Total for City 960.41 1.03
New Augusta
Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005
Automotive - -
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -
Food and Beverage 2,374.67 3.41
Furniture and Fixtures - -
Public Utilities - -
Apparel and General Merchandise - -
Lumber and Building Materials - -
Miscellaneous Retail 322.41 0.46
Miscellaneous Services - -
Wholesale - -
Contracting - -
Recreation - -
Total Retail 752.93 1.08
Total for City 738.44 1.06

Richton
Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005
Automotive 1,977.90 2.06
Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -
Food and Beverage 4,512.49 4.71
Furniture and Fixtures - -
Public Utilities - -
Apparel and General Merchandise 1,652.42 1.72
Lumber and Building Materials - -
Miscellaneous Retail 670.28 0.70
Miscellaneous Services - -
Wholesale - -
Contracting - -
Recreation - -
Total Retail 1,944.97 2.03
Total for City 1,907.53 1.99
SHIFT SHARE

Shift-share is essentially looking at how competitive one region is compared to a larger region. It
emulates a mix of industries and their performance. This compares the growth patterns in our region
to a larger region’s (usually the United States) growth patterns. In this study, the regional growth was
compared to the state’s growth as the state’s growth patterns are more reflective of local growth
patterns than the United States.

Shift-share is broken into three different components: The state growth component, industrial mix
component and regional shift component. The state growth component is the state growth rate
applied to the local level. This determines how many local jobs are attributed to state trends. The
industrial mix component is a ratio that compares local growth rates with state growth rates. A posi-
tive industrial mix component indicates that the given sector is growing locally at a faster rate than
the state. The regional shift component shows jobs that are attributed to its relative competitive
position and can be used to identify leading and lagging industries.

The sum of all three components is the shift-share, which is essentially the change in employment
within the two time periods used in the calculation. Since shift-share was not calculated for every
sector of the economy, the total change in shift-share is not the total change in local employment,
but rather the total change for the sectors calculated. This information is useful when determining
whether rates of growth or decline are from employment mix or local competitiveness.

Forrest County
Sector State Growth Industrial Growth Regional Shift Shift Share
Component Component Component 2001-2005
Manufacturing -46 418 -841 -470
Natural Resources & Mining -2 19 24 40
Construction -23 32 91 100
Wholesale Trade -20 27 183 190
Retail Trade -72 180 262 370
Transportation and Warehousing -23 -17 -579 -620
Information -7 94 -107 -20
Finance & Insurance -21 29 142 150
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing -7 -15 43 20
Professional and Business Services -15 -99 615 500
Educational Services -4 -24 158 130
Health Care & Social Asst -53 -232 865 580
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation -4 29 -45 -20
Accommodation & Food Service -51 -74 835 710
Other Service (except Public Admin) -20 6 -106 -120
Government -175 -12 657 470
Education -68 1060 -452 540
Total -612 1234 1928 2550
Lamar County
Sector State Growth Industrial Growth Regional Shift Shift Share
Component Component Component 2001-2005
Manufacturing -19 170 -191 -40
Natural Resources & Mining -3 26 -33 -10
Construction -14 18 95 100
Wholesale Trade -3 5 -1 0
Retail Trade -52 129 53 130
Transportation and Warehousing -6 -4 -20 -30
Information -4 51 -167 -120
Finance & Insurance -7 9 118 120
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing -3 -6 78 70
Professional and Business Services -6 -38 214 170
Educational Services 0 -3 23 20
Health Care & Social Assistance -31 -136 427 260
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation -1 8 23 30
Accommodation & Food Service -23 -33 467 410
Other Service (except Public Admin) -5 2 -6 -10
Government -27 -2 279 250
Education -17 271 26 280
Total -221 445 1406 1630

Perry County
Sector State Growth Industrial Growth Regional Shift Shift Share
Component Component Component 2001-2005
Manufacturing -15 132 -238 -120
Natural Resources & Mining -2 15 -13 0
Construction -1 1 10 10
Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0
Retail Trade -5 12 23 30
Transportation and 0 0 31 30
Warehousing
Information 0 4 -4 0
Finance & Insurance -1 2 0 0
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 0 0 -10 -10
Professional and Business Services 0 -1 1 0
Educational Services 0 0 0 0
Health Care & Social Asst -2 -9 171 160
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 0 1 -1 0
Accommodation & Food Service -1 -1 -8 -10
Other Service (except Public Admin.) -1 0 0 0
Government -12 -1 -77 -90
Education -6 97 -41 50
Total -46 93 3 50
LOCATION QUOTIENTS

Location quotients are used to determine the degree of self-sufficiency of various sectors of the lo-
cal economy. This is done by analyzing the sector employment to total employment as they relate
to a larger geographic area such as the state. A location quotient greater than one indicates that
the community is self-sufficient within a given sector and has the ability to other markets.

Forrest County
Sector Location Quotient
Manufacturing 0.40
Natural Resources & Mining 0.62
Construction 0.90
Wholesale Trade 1.20
Retail Trade 1.04
Transportation and Warehousing 0.53
Information 0.87
Finance & Insurance 1.28
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 1.17
Professional and Business Services 0.50
Educational Services 0.73
Health Care & Social Assistance 1.10
Arts, Entertain & Recreation 0.52
Accommodation & Food Service 1.05
Other Service (except Public Admin) 0.91
Government 1.40
Education 1.70
Total 1.00
Lamar County
Sector Location
Manufacturing 0.50
Natural Resources & Mining 1.73
Construction 1.44
Wholesale Trade 0.49
Retail Trade 1.90
Transportation and Warehousing 0.53
Information 0.66
Finance & Insurance 1.22
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 1.55
Professional and Business Services 0.48
Educational Services 0.25
Health Care & Social Assistance 1.64
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 0.62
Accommodation & Food Service 1.32
Other Service (except Public Admin) 0.69
Government 0.64
Education 1.28
Total 1.00

Perry County
Sector Location Quotient 2005
Manufacturing 1.86
Natural Resources & Mining 5.28
Construction 0.48
Wholesale Trade -
Retail Trade 0.98
Transportation and Warehousing 0.44
Information 0.58
Finance & Insurance 0.85
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing -
Professional and Business Services 0.05
Educational Services -
Health Care & Social Asst 1.14
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 0.33
Accommodation & Food Service 0.19
Other Service (except Public Admin.) 0.44
Government 1.13
Education 2.17
Total 1.00
CONCLUSION

When reviewing a community analysis it is important to understand the methodology behind the
numbers. Only when the methodology is understood do the numbers really become useful. Eco-
nomic development theories can only produce estimations based on assumptions.

Also, the purpose of these indicators is not intended to show where a community is going wrong.
They are intended to show where communities currently have an advantage and areas where
there is room for potential growth.

DATA SOURCES

• Employment- Data from The Mississippi Department of Employment Security’s Annual Aver-
ages historical data series was utilized to provide employment data.

• Geographic Data- Geographic size and distances were calculated using DeLorme’s 2006
version of Street Atlas USA.

• Population and Income- The source for all population and income data was Demographic-
sNow, a web based demographic software package.

• Retail Sales- Retail sales data for all was compiled from The Mississippi State Tax Commission’s
2005 Annual Report.

**PS-Hattiesburg- Because the study used very broad sectors of the economy and the potential
sales formula assumes that everyone within the trade area will purchase all goods and services
within that community, potential sales were not calculated for the Hattiesburg trade area. Doing
so would assume residents of the trade area would not purchase lower order goods from their local
communities.

**Retail Sales Data-Hattiesburg- However, because of the geographic size of the retail trade area,
information on communities located out of the state of Mississippi were required to calculate Hat-
tiesburg’s retail trade area. To determine the retail trade area size for the City of Hattiesburg retail
sales figures from Sales and Marketing Management 2005 Survey of Buying Power and Media Mar-
kets was used.