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SWB46EquityWeekly16.11

SWB46EquityWeekly16.11

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Equity Research Swedbank MarketsPage 1 of 5
Attention: Please note important background and customer information at the end of this report
Estonia
NordeconInternational
posted Q3 results last week which were above our expectations. Total sales of the company amounted to €47m in Q3 2009,down by 29.4% Y-o-Y. The cumulative revenue for the 9M 2009 reached €126m, down by 32.7% Y-o-Y. The net profit dropped by almost 43% Y-o-Yto €2.6m in Q3 2009.
Latvia
NoCorporateNews.
Lithuania
Vilkyskiu pienine
October sales amounted to LTL 16.2m (EUR 4.7m) or 8.5% more than for the same period last year. The sales of the company for period January – October 2009 comprised LTL 131m (EUR 37.9m) down1% yoy.From November 13, 2009, a mandatory tender offer to buy
Dvarcioniukeramika
(ISIN code LT0000122319) is launched. The closing date for execution of the tender offer is November 26, 2009. The price per share isLTL 2.01.
Zemaitijos Pienas
for the nine months delivered sales of LTL 277.1m (EUR80.3m), in comparison with the nine moths of 2008 the sales decreased by23.3%. The unaudited consolidated net profit for the nine months of 2009 isequal to LTL 5.9m (EUR 1.7m), whereas in the nine months of 2008 thecompany experienced a loss of LTL 8.3m (EUR 2.4m).
Baltic Indices
24027030033036039013-Aug27-Aug10-Sep24-Sep8-Oct22-Oct5-NovBaltic BenchmarkOMX Tallinn*OMX Riga*OMX Vilnius*Source: Reuters, Swedbank* Relative to Baltic Benchmark
Trail. 4Q09FLast Q09F
Arco Vara0.20
5.3%458382-0.39.50.40.4Baltika0.74
2.8%85409-1.7-2.01.11.2Eesti Telekom5.940.0%4549910.116.74.04.9Ekspress Grupp1.03
-1.9%53414-4.5-4.30.60.6Harju Elekter2.380.0%725837.630.31.41.6Järvevana0.45
18.4%35308Merko Ehitus5.19
0.4%2647618.1-74.30.70.7Nordecon International1.56
1.3%22252083.8-29.40.91.1Norma3.95
2.1%641438.4-38.80.90.9Olympic Entertainment Grou0.71
6.0%412277-1.9-4.91.21.2Silvano Fashion Group0.680.0%16669-2.4-17.90.90.7Tallink0.37
-5.1%2904513-30.57.30.40.4Tallinna Kaubamaja3.75
0.3%39529-44.8-13.21.31.5Tallinna Vesi10.20
-1.9%7404610.49.92.52.3Viisnurk0.85
4.9%4550253.55.30.80.8
Trail. 4Q09FLast Q09F
Grindeks3.25
-25.3%115572.94.70.40.6Latvian Gas4.45
-12.4%23088.70.6Latvian Shipping Company0.43
-2.3%907871.61.20.20.2Latvijas Balzams1.79
-0.6%4326.00.4Liepajas Metalurgs1.21
0.8%4741.10.3Olainfarm0.97
3.2%1901998.69.00.90.8SAF Tehnika0.73
25.9%38083-2.51.10.30.2Valmiera Fibre Glass0.470.0%69840.90.4Ventspils Nafta1.350.0%366463.90.4
Trail. 4Q09FLast Q09F
Apranga2.36
6.8%20001218.2-3.51.00.9City Service7.37
4.1%1016712.88.82.21.8Grigiskes1.02
7.4%61060-13.40.9Invalda2.00
1.0%182460-0.70.6Klaipedos Nafta0.96
1.1%2681312.20.8Lietuvos Dujos2.32
-2.5%1323527.317.40.60.5Lietuvos Energija2.80
-1.8%6556-53.50.7Lietuvos Juru Laivininkyste0.47
-6.0%61417-2.30.4Lifosa26.75
2.5%75223.50.7Panevezio Statybos Trestas3.41
-5.3%2963591.90.5Pieno Zvaigzdes3.00
1.7%288919.35.41.11.0Rokishkio Suris3.00
1.7%21167-13.30.7RST1.91
-7.3%134732-10.80.4Sanitas9.49
-1.1%20839-11.61.2Siauliu Bankas1.04
-3.7%1894244.20.6Snaige0.70
2.9%132866-0.60.4Snoras1.07
-1.8%2041931.50.5TEO LT1.82
-2.2%26470888.68.51.41.4Ukio Bankas1.15
-0.9%5531911.30.5
Source: Reuters, Swedbank 
P/EP/BVP/EP/BVLithuania (in LTL)LastCloseWeeklyChangeWeeklyVolumeP/EP/BVEstonia (in €)LastCloseWeeklyChangeWeeklyVolumeLatvia (in LVL)LastCloseWeeklyChangeWeeklyVolume
Equity Weekly
Index valueWeekly Change,%Weekly Turnove
Estonia408.6-0.64%3,3m
The activityinTallinn Stock Exchangewas quiet. The turnover reached€3.3mandthe index ended theweek at408.6 points. Small institutional activitywasseen in
TallinnaVesiAS
. Also, aslight selling pressure byinstitutions wasrecorded in
Nordecon International
.
Latvia288-5.05%0,3m
Market activity was a bit higher than usual however there wasnot seen clear market direction in Riga.
Grindeks
was in the market participants spot light dueto disappointing third quarter results which led share price 25% lower. Meanwhile
SAF Tehnika
increased by more than 25% after news that shareholders meetingapproved dividend payout of LVL 0.23 per share which is 39.7% dividend yield atpre-announcement price and 31.5% yield at Fridays close price.
Lithuania271.1-2.03%2,7m
The Lithuanianmarketremained quietas well. The weeklyturnover reached €2.7m and the indexclosed at 271.1 pointslast week. A selling interestbyinstitutions was recordedin
Apranga
and
Invalda
.
Equity Research -Monday, November 16, 2009
 
Equity Research Swedbank MarketsPage 2 of 4Equity Weekly November16, 2009
Attention: Please note important background and customer information at the end of this report
Investor Calendar:
DateDescription
Estonia
No Corporate News
Latvia
16.11.2009OLK1R - 9M 2009 non-audited financial report16.-20.11.2009ELG - 9M non-audited financial report19.11.2009VNF1R - Extraordinary General Meeting20.11.2009NKA1R - 9M non-audited financial report20.11.2009VNF1R - Extraordinary General Meeting23.11.2009LME1R - 9M non-audited financial report
Lithuania
16.11.2009LFO1L - Sales revenue in October 200916.11.2009VBL1L - Consolidated financial statements for 9M 2009Source: NASDAQ OMX
 
Equity Research Swedbank MarketsPage 3 of 4Equity Weekly November16, 2009
Swedbank Markets Baltic Equity research
& Institutional sales:
Energy, Materials & UtilitiesIndustrialsEquity Sales
Pavel Lupandin
pavel.lupandin@swedbank.ee
Estonia+372 6 131 535Risto Huntristo.hunt@swedbank.eeEstonia+372 6 136 796Kristiina Vassilkova
kristiina.vassilkova@swedbank.ee
Baltic Institutional Sales+372 6 131 663
Donatas Užkurėlis
donatas.uzkurelis@swedbank.lt
Lithuania+370 5 268 4395Marko Daljajevmarko.daljajev@swedbank.eeEstonia+372 6 131 246Andres Suimets
andres.suimets@swedbank.ee
Head of Sales (Estonia)+372 6 131 657
Telecom ServicesFinancials
Svetlana Skutelska
Svetlana.skutelska@swedbank.lv
Head of Sales (Latvia)+371 6744 4154Marko Daljajev
marko.daljajev@swedbank.ee
Estonia+372 6 131 246Risto Huntristo.hunt@swedbank.eeEstonia+372 6 136 796Simona Sileviciute
simona.sileviciute@swedbank.lt
Head of Sales (Lithuania)+370 5268 4513Marko Daljajevmarko.daljajev@swedbank.eeEstonia+372 6 131 246
Equity TradingConsumersHealthcare
Simmo Sommer 
simmo.sommer@swedbank.ee
Head of Baltic Trading+372 6131 605Pavel Lupandin
pavel.lupandin@swedbank.ee
Estonia+372 6 131 535Marko Daljajevmarko.daljajev@swedbank.eeLatvia+372 6 131 246
Equity Capital Markets
Donatas Užkurėlis
donatas.uzkurelis@swedbank.lt
Lithuania+370 5 268 4395Lauri Lind
lauri.lind@swedbank.ee
Head of Baltic Equity Capital Markets+372 6 131 355Mihkel Torim
mihkel.torim@swedbank.ee
Baltic Equity Capital Markets+372 6 131 564
Swedbank Group Homepage:www.swedbank.com. For Research products on Bloomberg please type:HBME <GO>.
Background Information:
Recommendation structure
Swedbank Markets’ recommendation structure consists of six recommendations: Buy, Accumulate, Hold, Reduce, Sell and Avoid. Therecommendations are based on an absolute return for the security 12 months forward. The absolute return includes share price appreciationand dividend yield combined.The recommendations for the securities mentioned in this report are based on risk and return considerations. The higher the risk category of the investment, the higher the required return. For equity investments, returns are defined as capital appreciation and dividends received over the investment horizon of 12 months forward. The expected capital appreciation is the ratio of a stock’s target price over the current price. Acompany risk rating depends on its stock price volatility, liquidity and business outlook. The target price depends on a company’sfundamentals as well as the market valuation of peer stocks, and can be changed at any time if the relevant changes occur within acompany/market perception of the peer group. “Buy”, “accumulate”, “hold”, “reduce”, “sell” and “avoid” recommendations may be used in thisreport. The table below presents the relationship between recommendations and target prices compared to risk level of the stock. These areindicative ranges and actual recommendations may deviate from the indications if other relevant issues are considered. For more detailedinformation about the recommendation system please visit http://www.swedbank.ee/disclaimers/recommendation2007.pdf 
Recommendation structure
Buy> +20% to target priceAccumulate+10% < target price < +20%Hold0% < target price < +10%Reduce-10% < target price < 0%Sell< -10% to target priceAvoidused when security does not match the standards presented in SWBs investment guidelinesThe recommendation by Swedbank Markets Equity Research department is based on a variety of standard valuation models. However, thebase for the calculation of the target price is our DCF model (DCF = discounted cash flow) with the exception of financial and investmentcompanies. The DCF model discounts future cash flow at present value.In preparation of this report different valuation methods have been used, including, but not limited to, discounted free cash-flow andcomparative analysis. The selection of methods depends on the industry, the company, the nature of the stock and other circumstances.The target price (previous fair value) takes into account the DCF value, the relative valuation of the share versus others peers (national or international) and news that can have a positive or negative effect on the share price. Relative and absolute multiples that we consider are:EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, PE, PEG and Net Asset models for companies with liquid markets for their assets and other industry specific ratioswhen available. Break-up valuation models are also sometimes considered.
Recommendations by the 16 nov 2009
No of sharesPart of totalBuy10
 ██████████ 
45%
Accumulate2
 ██ 
9%
Hold2
 ██ 
9%
Reduce2
 ██ 
9%
Under Review6
 ██████ 
27%

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