You are on page 1of 20

NET PROFIT

5000.0
4500.0 4351.7
3875.9
4000.0
3451.1
3500.0
3071.8
3000.0 2733.2
2536.2
Net Profit

2500.0 2290.8

EPS
1
1897.3
2000.0
1500.0
1000.0
500.0
0.0 Mar
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
Years

TERMINAL VALUE EQUITY VALUE

10909.4 cr
10909.4 20035.2 cr

52 week high 52 week low


1915.9 10909.4
1431.8
EARNING PER SHARE
45.4
40.4
36.0
32.0
28.5
26.4
23.9
EPS

19.8

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25


Years

UITY VALUE FAIR EQUITY VALUE

0035.2 cr 209

FACE VALUE
week low
10909.4
1.0
10909.4
1431.8
1) Revenu growth rate of paint industry is taken as between 9-12% coming years as demand is risin
2) Depriciation is growing at rate equal to revenue growth rate so as capex of the company
3) Tax rate is assumed to be at 26%
4) There is no issue of fresh equity by the company
5) long term borrowings of the company is growing at a rate at which fixed assets of company is gro
6) Non current investment of the company is growing as rate of revenue growth as there are better
7) Dividend distribution tax abolished by the government so no DDT is taken for upcoming years
8) Capex of the company is determined as difference in net fixed assets
9) For Cost of Equity calculation, Risk Free rate if for 10 year Government Sec
10) Market risk premium is taken as india's equity risk premium as per moody's
ASSUMPTIONS

years as demand is rising up for decorative paints in urban as well as in rural areas hence giving impetus to industry to maintain greater v
of the company

assets of company is growing


rowth as there are better chances of upward trend in demand for paint
en for upcoming years
industry to maintain greater viability
1 2 3
Selected Case --> 1

INCOME STATEMENT OF ASIAN PAINTS

Historical period Forecast period


Particulars Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Revenue from operations 14167.8 16391.8 17194.1 19257.4 21568.3
Growth % 16% 5% 12.0% 12.0%
other income 277.5 284.82 357.5 400.4 448.4
%tage of revenue 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Total revenue 14445.3 16676.6 17551.6 19657.8 22016.7
COGS 8334.8 9757.8 9870.9 11282.7 12636.6
% of Revenue 59% 60% 57% 59% 59%
Operating expenses 2909.8 3127.1 3497.4 3848.6 4310.5
%tage of revenue 21% 19% 20% 20% 20%
EBITDA 3200.7 3791.8 4183.3 4526.5 5069.7
Depreciation 311.1 540.8 690.0 772.8 865.5
Growth% 74% 28% 12% 12%
EBIT 2889.6 3251.0 3493.3 3753.7 4204.2
Interest 23.82 80.73 80.33 75.6 70.3
EBT 2865.8 3170.3 3413.0 3678.1 4133.8
Tax 968.46 879.47 876.81 944.9 1062.0
NET PROFIT 1897.3 2290.8 2536.2 2733.2 3071.8
Dividend 987.9 853.6 1740.9 1740.9 1740.9
DDT 199.4 173.5 353.07
Equity shares 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9
EPS 19.8 23.9 26.4 28.5 32.0

Revenue from operations


Best case (y-o-y %) 12% 12%
Base case 10.5% 10.5%
Worst case 9% 9%
COGS 59% 60% 57% 59% 59%
OPEX 21% 19% 20% 20% 20%
TAX (%) 34% 28% 26% 26% 26%
in crores
Forecast period
Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
24156.5 27055.2 30301.9
12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
502.3 562.5 630.0
2% 2% 2%
24658.7 27617.8 30931.9
14153.0 15851.3 17753.5
59% 59% 59%
4827.7 5407.1 6055.9
20% 20% 20%
5678.0 6359.4 7122.5
969.4 1085.7 1216.0
12% 12% 12%
4708.7 5273.7 5906.5
64.4 57.7 50.3
4644.3 5215.9 5856.2
1193.1 1340.0 1504.5
3451.1 3875.9 4351.7
1740.9 1740.9 1740.9

95.9 95.9 95.9


36.0 40.4 45.4

12% 12% 12%


10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
9% 9% 9%
59% 59% 59%
20% 20% 20%
26% 26% 26%
BALANCE SHEET OF ASIAN PAINTS

Historical period Forcast p


Particulars Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
EQUITY
Equity Share Capital 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9
Reserves and Surplus 7660.2 8747.0 9357.3 10349.6
Total shareholders fund 7756.1 8843.0 9453.2 10445.5
NON-CURRENT LIABILITY
Borrowings 9.8 10.8 18.5 17.4
Provisions 107.3 118.4 136.7 136.7
Deferred tax liabilities 248.1 392.3 282.7 282.7
Other long term liabilities 344.6 476.7 501.3 501.3
Total Non current Liabilities 709.8 998.2 939.2 938.1
CURRENT LIABILITIES
Short Term Borrowings 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0
Trade Payables 1851.5 2062.3 1760.1 2300.9
Other Current Liabilities 1653.6 1722.4 1390.7 1588.9
Short Term Provisions 42.8 52.2 44.1 44.1
Total Current Liabilities 3547.9 3841.2 3194.9 3933.9
Total Equity & liabilities 12013.8 13682.4 13587.3 15317.5
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
PP&E 2909.5 5131.2 4875.2 4588.4
CWIP 1391.8 179.3 108.1 108.1
Goodwill 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3
other intangible assets 55.7 54.6 50.2 50.2
Investment 1771.2 2113.4 2522.2 2824.8
Tax assets 49.5 81.4 137.9 137.9
other long term assets 299.9 33.4 32.8 32.8
Total non current assets 6512.9 7628.6 7761.7 7777.6
CURRENT ASSETS
Inventory 2178.4 2585.1 2827.4 3056.6
Investments 1030.0 1146.6 432.4 869.7
Trade receivables 1138.2 1244.9 1109.2 830.4
Cash and cash equivalence 120.8 167.5 376.1 1775.6
other current assets 1033.6 909.2 1080.6 1007.8
Total current assets 5501.0 6053.3 5825.6 7540.0
Total assets 12013.9 13681.9 13587.3 15317.5

DSO 29 27 23 26
DPO 80 76 64 73
INVENTORY 94 95 103 98
T OF ASIAN PAINTS
in crores
Forcast period
Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25

95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9


11680.5 13390.8 15525.8 18136.6
11776.4 13486.7 15621.7 18232.6

16.2 14.8 13.3 11.6


136.7 136.7 136.7 136.7
282.7 282.7 282.7 282.7
501.3 501.3 501.3 501.3
936.9 935.5 934.0 932.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


2577.0 2886.3 3232.6 3620.5
1567.3 1515.6 1557.3 1546.8
44.1 44.1 44.1 44.1
4188.4 4446.0 4834.0 5211.4
16901.8 18868.2 21389.7 24376.2

4267.3 3907.6 3504.7 3053.5


108.1 108.1 108.1 108.1
35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3
50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2
3163.8 3543.5 3968.7 4444.9
137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9
32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8
7795.4 7815.3 7837.7 7862.7

3423.4 3834.2 4294.3 4809.6


816.2 706.1 797.3 773.2
930.0 1041.6 1166.6 1306.6
2937.6 4441.8 6281.8 8610.6
999.2 1029.2 1012.0 1013.5
9106.4 11052.9 13552.0 16513.5
16901.8 18868.2 21389.7 24376.2

26 26 26 26
73 73 73 73
98 98 98 98
0

0
CASH FLOW STATEMENT OF ASIAN PAINTS

Forecast period
Particulars Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Net Profit 2733.2 3071.8 3451.1
Depriciation 772.8 865.5 969.4
Operating cash flow before WC changes 3506.0 3937.3 4420.5
Trade receivables 278.8 -99.6 -111.6
Inventory -229.2 -366.8 -410.8
Current investments -437.3 53.5 110.1
Other current assets 72.8 8.6 -30.0
Trade payables 540.8 276.1 309.2
Other current liablities 198.2 -21.6 -51.7
Operating cash flow 3930.2 3787.5 4235.8
Capex 486.0 544.3 609.7
investment -302.7 -339.0 -379.7
cash flow from investing activities 788.7 883.3 989.3
Long term borrowings -1.1 -1.2 -1.4
dividend -1740.9 -1740.9 -1740.9
cashflow from financing activities 1742.0 1742.1 1742.3
Net cash flow 1399.5 1162.1 1504.2
beginning 376.1 1775.6 2937.6
Cash at end 1775.6 2937.6 4441.8
eriod in crores
Mar-24 Mar-25
3875.9 4351.7
1085.7 1216.0
4961.6 5567.7
-125.0 -140.0
-460.1 -515.3
-91.2 24.1
17.1 -1.4
346.4 387.9
41.6 -10.5
4690.4 5312.5
682.8 764.8
-425.2 -476.2
1108.0 1241.0
-1.5 -1.7
-1740.9 -1740.9
1742.4 1742.6
1840.0 2328.9
4441.8 6281.8
6281.8 8610.6
PROPERTY , PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

Particulars Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22


Asset at beginning 2909.5 5131.2 4875.2 4588.4
Depriciation 540.8 690.0 772.8 865.5
Capex 2762.5 433.9 486.0 544.3
Asset at End 2909.5 5131.2 4875.2 4588.4 4267.3

Capex (% dep) 12% 12%


Depriciation (% growth rate) 12% 12%
T

Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25


4267.3 3907.6 3504.7
969.4 1085.7 1216.0
609.7 682.8 764.8
3907.6 3504.7 3053.5

12% 12% 12%


12% 12% 12%
Particulars Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
EBIT 3753.7 4204.2 4708.7 5273.7
Tax 964.3 1080.1 1209.7 1354.8
working capital changes 424.2 -149.8 -184.7 -271.2
operating cash flow 3213.6 2974.3 3314.2 3647.7
capex 486.0 544.3 609.7 682.8
investment -302.7 -339.0 -379.7 -425.2
Investing cash flow 788.7 883.3 989.3 1108.0
UFCF 2424.9 2090.9 2324.9 2539.6
1 2 3 4
PV of cash flow 2167.3 1670.3 1660.0 1620.6

Sum of PV cash flows


Terminal value
PV of terminal value
Total value
Net cash
Equity value
Equity shares
Value per share
Mar-25 CAPM
5906.5 Risk free rate 5.81%
1517.4 Market risk premium 8.5%
-255.2 Beta 0.73
4133.9 Cost of equity 12.0%
764.8 DEBT
-476.2 Rate of interest 4%
1241.0 Effective interest rate 3%
2892.9 Perpetuity growth rate 3%
5 Market cap 165691.8
1650.0 Debt value 2489.6
equity % 98.5%
8768.2 Debt % 1.5%
19127.5 WACC 11.9%
10909.4
19677.6
357.56
20035.2
95.9
209
Historical Period Forecast Period
Particulars Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
LIQUIDITY RATIO
Current Ratio 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5
Liquid ratio 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6
Absolute liquid ratio 0.03 0.04 0.12 0.45 0.70 1.00
PROFITABILITY RATIO
Net profit margin 13% 14% 15% 14% 14% 14%
Operating profit margin 23% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24%
Return on capital employed 34% 33% 34% 33% 33% 33%
Returrn on equity 19.8 23.9 26.4 28.5 32.0 36.0
TURNOVER RATIO
Debtor turnover ratio 12.4 13.2 15.5 23.2 23.2 23.2
Creditor turnover ratio 4.5 4.7 5.6 4.9 4.9 4.9
Inventory Turnover ratio 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7
Asset turover Ratio 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Days receivables 28.9 27.3 23.2 15.5 15.5 15.5
Days payables 80.0 76.1 64.2 73.4 73.4 73.4
Days inventory 94.1 95.4 103.1 97.5 97.5 97.5
SOLVENCY RATIO
Debt to equity ratio 0.102 0.113 0.193 0.182 0.169 0.155
Debt to asset ratio 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
Interest coverage ratio 121.3 40.3 43.5 49.6 59.8 73.1
orecast Period
Mar-24 Mar-25

2.8 3.2
1.9 2.2
1.30 1.65

14% 14%
24% 24%
32% 31%
40.4 45.4

23.2 23.2
4.9 4.9
3.7 3.7
1.3 1.2
15.5 15.5
73.4 73.4
97.5 97.5

0.139 0.121
0.001 0.000
91.3 117.4

You might also like