GARINHARTYANG

RESEARCH GROUP
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1724 Connect i cut Avenue, N. W.
Washi ngt on, DC 20009
Tel : ( 202) 234- 5570
Fax: ( 202) 232- 8134
www. har t r esear ch. com


M E M O R A N D U M
TO: ROY CHO FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE
FROM: GARIN HART YANG RESEARCH GROUP
DATE: JUNE 23, 2014
RE: JUST-COMPLETED NJ 5TH CD SURVEY

Between June 19 and 22, Garin Hart Yang conducted a survey among a
representative sample of 404 likely New Jersey 5th CD general election voters
(margin of error 5 percentage points). Our survey findings suggest that, while
Democratic challenger Roy Cho suffers from a severe deficit in name recognition
(21% recognize Cho, 83% recognize Republican incumbent Scott Garrett), the
fundamentals of the 2014 election that we are measuring across the country
(severe discontent with Washington and with the GOP majority in Congress)
provide the perfect ingredients to upset Congressman Garrett. In other words, if
Roy Cho can continue to mount an aggressive, energetic grassroots effort
AND raise the funds to increase his name recognition, the ingredients are
present for him to run a competitive and winning campaign.

Despite Roys name recognition deficit, the initial trial heat actually is
already competitive, and the incumbent is under the important 50% mark
that signals vulnerability: Garrett garners 47% of the vote, Roy Cho
stands at 34%, while 19% are undecided.

There are several fundamental reasons why Garrett is underperforming and why
Roy Cho has a path to victory.

First, 5
th
CD voters (like voters across the nation) are dissatisfied with
Washington and even with the GOP majority. In fact, close to three in four
(74%) voters DISAPPROVE of the GOP majority, including 75% of unaffiliated
voters and 78% of undecided voters.

Second, Scott Garrett is NOT immune from the record levels of anti-incumbency
that well-respected, nonpartisan polling firms are measuring across the nation.
Just one-third of voters would reelect Congressman Garrett, while 50%
prefer to make a change and elect someone else. A very good sign that the
election actually is closer than the 47%-to-34% Garrett lead is that, among
undecided voters, ZERO percent would reelect Garrett.

Third, the polling makes clear that once 5th CD voters hear Roy Chos
impressive background and priorities, the race immediately becomes a
GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP

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near dead heat EVEN when we present positive information about BOTH
candidates. We provided voters with the following positive, factual information
about the candidates:
SCOTT GARRETT has represented this area in Congress for 12 years. As a senior member
of the Budget Committee, Garrett is a leading advocate for smaller government, cutting
government spending, and simplifying the tax code. He also founded the Congressional
Constitution Caucus, which seeks to protect the original intent of the Founding Fathers, and
has led efforts to keep our country's financial markets globally competitive. Garrett is a
life-long New Jersey resident who believes the federal government has become too
intrusive and is jeopardizing the freedom of American citizens.
ROY CHO realized the American Dream as the son of immigrants who came to America with
virtually nothing. He is a product of New Jersey public schools, an Ivy League graduate,
and a successful business attorney at a prominent firm. Cho believes that Congress has
been taken over by special interests and that Washington is more dysfunctional than ever
because the voice of regular people is no longer being heard. He's ready to take on the
challenge to make the system work again and get results for northern New Jersey.

After hearing this information, the trial heat closes dramatically, as the following
chart shows.

Initial
Trial Heat
Informed
Trial Heat
Change
Roy Cho 34% 42% +8
Scott Garrett 47% 46% -1
Undecided 19% 12%
Finally, the challenger draws AHEAD of the incumbent AFTER we provide
negative information about BOTH candidates, with Roy Cho drawing 46%
of the vote and Scott Garrett getting 36%.

Final
Trial Heat
Roy Cho 46%
Scott Garrett 36%
Undecided 18%

In summary, we understand the difficulty of defeating an entrenched incumbent
and recognize that Scott Garrett has several advantages at his disposal, including
his higher name recognition. However, as recent primary elections have shown
and national polling continues to demonstrate, Garretts incumbency actually may
be an obstacle for him in 2014, and Roy Chos energy, independence, and
nonpolitical, pragmatic background make him the ideal candidate for a dissatisfied
and cynical electorate.