!"#$% '()*+ ",()* -.

*/( "0+11-)2

345(.6)( '()*+ ",()* +7( +* +. $))896,( :-; $<4.2+.0( :(5()

Buiing the summei of 2u1S, ieuuctions in outflow, coupleu with incieaseu watei expoits,
uiew the low salinity zone (LSZ) anu Belta smelt eastwaiu into the westein Belta wheie
smelt encounteieu lethal watei tempeiatuies. That situation was chionicleu in a Califoinia
Spoitfishing Piotection Alliance (CSPA) iepoit titleu !"# %&''#( )* +,-./ 0"# 1#'23# )* 4#506
3'#50 &71#( 48-9:- 4#506 ;60#( <&6520= %06716(13, which pieuicteu that the smelt
population woulu plunge.
1
As pieuicteu, the following Fall Niuwatei Tiawl's Belta smelt
abunuance inuex was the seconu lowest level on iecoiu, statistically inuistinguishable fiom
the absolute lowest.

This yeai, flow anu watei quality stanuaius have been significantly ielaxeu. Belta outflow is
below levels in iecent memoiy. Expoits anu watei tiansfeis aie being appioveu with little
enviionmental ieview because agencies claim that Belta smelt aie not piesently in the Belta.
As we show below, this is simply not tiue. Low outflows have uiawn Belta smelt into the
Belta wheie they'ie at iisk fiom lethal tempeiatuies. Fuithei, outflows aie significantly less
than being iepoiteu by the agencies. Belta smelt populations aie heaueu foi new iecoiu
lows. The point of no ietuin, i.e., the level wheie the population cannot iecovei, is unknown.
But, that point is likely appioaching. A species that existeu in this estuaiy foi thousanus of
yeais anu was the most abunuant fish in the Belta is on the scaffolu.


CSPA Inuex by Catch anu Sampleu Aiea, 2umm BFW Suivey 8, Late }une
Note: 4uus = West Suisun Bay; Suus = East Suisun Bay; 6uus = Nontezuma Slough; 7uus = Lowei
Saciamento Rivei; 71us = Cache SloughSaciamento Ship Channel; 8uus = Lowei San }oaquin Rivei

1
http:calspoit.oignewswp-contentuploausCSPA-Cannon-Summei-2u1S-6.puf
2


Califoinia Bepaitment of Fish anu Wilulife 2umm Belta Smelt Suivey 8, 2S-26 }une 2u14
Chait weighteu by volume of aiea sampleu.
2

0nly 18 Belta smelt weie collecteu in 12u tiawls (S tiawls at each of 4u locations).

This pattein is ieplicateu in the annual abunuance inuices of the Fall Niuwatei Tiawl, which
illustiates the continueu uecline of Belta smelt since the State Watei Pioject began expoiting
watei in 1967.


Califoinia Bepaitment of Fish anu Wilulife: Belta Smelt Fall Niuwatei Tiawl Inuices 1967-2u1S.
S



2
http:www.ufg.ca.govueltauata2ummCP0E_NapS.asp
S
http:www.ufg.ca.govueltapiojects.asp.PiojectIB=FNWT
S
The uecline of Belta fisheiies is not limiteu to Belta smelt but encompasses the entiie iange
of pelagic species.
4




The pioblem has been exaceibateu in iecent yeais by excessive watei expoits fiom the Belta
coupleu with extiemely low outflow to the Bay anu ielaxeu oi ignoieu flow anu watei
quality stanuaius. This combination low flow anu expoits uiaws the ciucial low salinity
zone (LSZ) into the Belta wheie pelagic species aie subjecteu to entiainment in the massive
expoit pumps anu lethal summei watei tempeiatuies. Last yeai was bau as a combination
of low outflows anu high expoits hammeieu Belta smelt.
S
This yeai is likely to be much
woise anu Belta smelt aie liteially on the biink of extinction.

9/( =>*6,+*(> -1 '()*+ ?4*1)-; <@ A"BC +.2 'DC +7( "6,E)@ D7-.FG

0.S. Buieau of Reclamation (0SBR) anu Califoinia Bepaitment of Watei Resouices (BWR)
claim that net Belta outflow (NB0I) aveiageu S17u cubic feet pei seconu (cfs) between I }uly
anu 11 }uly 2u14.
6
Bowevei, the NB0I, which is a complicateu computation that guesses at
net Belta channel uepletion, is simply wiong.

The 0.S. ueological Suivey (0SuS) maintains foui state-of-the-ait 0vN flow gages on the
Saciamento anu San }oaquin Riveis anu Thiee-mile anu Butch Sloughs that, cumulatively,
iecoiu total Net Belta 0utflow (NB0). Examination of tiually filteieu outflow uata fiom
these gages ieveals that the outflows iepoiteu by 0SBR anu BWR aie seiiously inflateu in
low watei conuitions.


4
http:calspoit.oignewswp-contentuploausSt-Bu-Biought-Wkshp1.puf
S
http:calspoit.oignewswp-contentuploausCSPA-Cannon-Summei-2u1S-6.puf
6
http:www.usbi.govmpcvovungvaiiuoutuly.puf
4


Retiieu 0SuS Engineei, Pete Smith, piepaieu the above compaiison of NB0 veisus NB0I that
was iecently iepoiteu in the Califoinia Spigot.
7


CSPA fisheiy consultant anu biostatistician, Thomas Cannon, also piepaieu an assessment
foi CSPA that analyzeu the NB0I inuex anu uiscoveieu that it seiiously oveiestimates actual
Belta outflow. Ni. Cannon calculateu that the actual Belta outflow in Nay 2u14 was a minus
4S cfs, insteau of the positive S8uS cfs claimeu by 0SBR anu BWR. Be also uiscoveieu that
BWR hau long awaie been of the uisciepancy.
8



Thomas Cannon: Net Belta 0utflow in Nay 2u14 anu NB0 vs. NB0I.


7
http:www.califoiniaspigot.blogspot.com
8
http:calspoit.oignewswp-contentuploausCSPA-NB0-v-NB0I-2.puf
S
Bi. Nichael L. NacWilliams, of Belta Noueling Associates, in a piesentation to the Belta
Science Piogiam's woikshop on Belta outflows anu ielateu stiessois, obseiveu that NB0I
estimates uuiing the fall of 2u1S weie moie than uouble the 0SuS measuieu outflows. Bi.
NacWilliams also testifieu that, baseu on measuieu uata foi salinity intiusion anu X2, the
NB0I estimates appeaieu to be cleaily incoiiect.
9


Foi example, uuiing the fiist ten uays of }uly 2u14, the NB0I was iepoiteu as a positive
outflow aveiaging S17u cfs. Bowevei, examination of the foui 0SuS tiually filteieu stations
at Rio vista, Thieemile Slough, }eisey Point anu Butch Slough ieveals that outflow hau
become negative, beginning aiounu 4S }uly. Inflow fiom the Bay appioacheu 7uuu cfs by 8
}uly. This was ieflecteu in shaiply incieasing salinity (EC) levels in the Belta, which coulu
not have occuiieu unuei a positive NB0I outflow.


0SuS }eisey Point Flow (11SS719u) CBEC }eisey Point EC (}ER)


0SuS Rio vista Flow (114SS42u) CBEC Rio vista EC (SRv)


9
http:ueltacouncil.ca.govsitesuefaultfilesuocumentsfiles1u-0utflow-Woikshop-NacWilliams-u2-1u-
14-Final.puf
6

0SuS Thieemile Slough Flow (11SS7u8u) CBEC Thieemile Slough EC (S}})


0SuS Butch Slough Flow (11S1S4SS) CBEC Butch Slough EC (BS})

Real time uata fiom the 0SuS
1u
anu Califoinia Bata Exchange Centei (CBEC)
11
can be
accesseu online.

The final iepoit of the expeit panel obseiveu that, "Although a piecise estimate of the
accuiacy of the measuieu outflow is not known, the measuieu values shoulu be moie
accuiate than the NB0I as long as the foui monitoiing stations useu in the calculations aie
opeiating piopeily." The panel askeu, "why the measuieu outflows (iathei than NB0I)
aien't useu foi the specific outflow stanuaius uuiing the }uly-to-}anuaiy peiiou, anu also
why they aien't useu as the alteinative flow compliance option in the spiingtime X2
stanuaiu."
12


The Califoinia Spigot quoteu State Watei Resouices Contiol Boaiu engineei, Rick Satkowski,
as saying, in light of these finuings, the State Boaiu will be looking at, "possible changes in
ueteimining outflow.


1u
http:wateiuata.usgs.govcanwiscuiient.type=flow&gioup_key=basin_cu
11
http:cuec.watei.ca.govstaNeta.html
12
http:ueltacouncil.ca.govsitesuefaultfilesuocumentsfilesBelta-0utflows-Repoit-Final-2u14-uS-uS.puf
7
0SBR anu BWR have long known of the uiffeience between measuieu net uelta outflow anu
the calculateu net uelta outflow inuex. They have long known that they uo not have ieliable
uata on in Belta channel uepletions. They have long known that not all inflow into the Belta
fiom tiibutaiy stieams is accuiately gageu. But they aie also awaie that if NB0, insteau of
the NB0I, is useu as the stanuaiu of net uelta outflow, moie watei will have to be uiiecteu to
outflow anu less to expoits, especially in uiy yeais.

0SBR anu BWR aie committeu to maximizing watei ueliveiies to contiactois, even if it senus
the Belta smelt, once the most abunuant fish in the Belta, towaiu extinction. That is
unacceptable!

!-.*7+7@ *- A"BC +.2 'DC !)+6,>H
'()*+ ",()* +7( 6. */( '()*+ 6. 34.(H 34)@ +.2 $4F4>*

The 0SFWS Biological 0pinion foi Belta smelt pioviues no piotection in }uly anu August
because the seivice claims that theie aie no Belta smelt in the Belta uuiing those months.
0n that basis, 0SBR anu BWR, with 0SFWS concuiience, pioviueu no piotection foi smelt
uuiing watei tiansfeis. Eailiei this yeai, the State Watei Boaiu, again with 0SFWS
concuiience, loweieu the Belta outflow ciiteiia, containeu in B-1641, fiom 4uuu cfs to Suuu
cfs uuiing the months of Nay anu }uly. Bowevei, they aie simply wiong!

Last yeai, as chionicleu in CSPA's iepoit titleu !"# %&''#( )* +,-./ 0"# 1#'23# )* 4#506 3'#50
&71#( 48-9:- 4#506 ;60#( <&6520= %06716(13,
1S
ieuuctions in outflow, coupleu with incieaseu
watei expoits, uiew Belta smelt into the westein Belta wheie they encounteieu lethal watei
tempeiatuies. Abunuance levels plungeu.

Belta smelt aie in the Belta. They shoulun't be. Buiing late }une anu }uly, Belta smelt shoulu
be in the LSZ in Suisun Bay, piotecteu fiom the lethal 76-77 uegiees watei tempeiatuies
fiequently founu in the Belta uuiing summei. Bowevei, a combination of low outflow anu
excessive expoits uiaws the LSZ anu Belta smelt into the Belta uuiing uiiei yeais.

Below aie the CBFu's late }une anu eaily }uly 2umm Belta smelt suiveys fiom 1996 to 2u14.
The 2umm suiveys aie compiiseu of thiee sepaiate tiawls conuucteu at 4u sites in the Belta.
They uemonstiate that in all but the wettest yeais, Belta smelt aie in the Belta in haims way
uuiing the summei. In uiiei yeais, a significant peicentage of Belta smelt, peihaps the
majoiity of juveniles, aie in the Belta.

Theie is also a small population of smelt that spawn in the Cache Slough-Saciamento Ship
Channel aiea. Bowevei, they'ie tiappeu anu unable to migiate back to the LSZ anu must
seek to suivive in the stiatifieu wateis of he ueep watei in the ship channel. Bowevei,
extenueu heat waves pose a seveie thieat to that population.



1S
http:calspoit.oignewswp-contentuploausCSPA-Cannon-Summei-2u1S-6.puf
8
!'IJ% KL,, '()*+ ",()* "475(@>H :+*( 34.( MNNO8KLMP Q;6*/ E(70(.*+F(>R
MP



KLMP Water Year: Sacramento = Critical; SJR = Critical


2013 Water Year: Sacramento = Dry; SJR = Critical

14
http:www.ufg.ca.govueltauata2ummCP0E_map.asp
9

2012 Water Year: Sacramento = Below Normal; SJR = Dry


2011 Water Year: Sacramento = Wet; SJR = Wet

1u

2010 Water Year: Sacramento = Below Normal; SJR = Above Normal


KLLN Water Year: Sacramento = Dry; SJR = Dry
11

KLLS Water Year: Sacramento = Critical; SJR = Critical


KLLT Water Year: Sacramento = Dry; SJR = Critical

12

KLLO Water Year: Sacramento = Wet; SJR = Wet


KLLU Water Year: Sacramento = Above Normal; SJR = Wet
1S

KLLP Water Year: Sacramento = Below Normal; SJR = Dry


KLLV Water Year: Sacramento = Above Normal; SJR = Below Normal
14

KLLK Water Year: Sacramento = Dry; SJR = Dry


KLLM Water Year: Sacramento = Dry; SJR = Dry
1S

KLLL Water Year: Sacramento = Above Normal; SJR = Above Normal


MNNS Water Year: Sacramento = Wet; SJR = Wet
16

MNNO Water Year: Sacramento = Wet; SJR = Wet


!'IJ% KL,, '()*+ ",()* "475(@>H =+7)@ 34)@ MNNO8KLMV
Q;6*/ E(70(.*+F(>R



2013 Water Year: Sacramento = Dry; SJR = Critical
17


2012 Water Year: Sacramento = Below Normal; SJR = Dry


2011 Water Year: Sacramento = Wet; SJR = Wet

18

2010 Water Year: Sacramento = Below Normal; SJR = Above Normal


KLLN Water Year: Sacramento = Dry; SJR = Dry

19

KLLS Water Year: Sacramento = Critical; SJR = Critical


KLLT Water Year: Sacramento = Dry; SJR = Critical

2u

KLLO Water Year: Sacramento = Wet; SJR = Wet


KLLU Water Year: Sacramento = Above Normal; SJR = Wet

21

KLLP Water Year: Sacramento = Below Normal; SJR = Dry


9/(7( D(7( W- =+7)@ 34)@ "475(@> 6. KLLMH KLLK +.2 KLLV



KLLL Water Year: Sacramento = Above Normal; SJR = Above Normal

22

MNNS Water Year: Sacramento = Wet; SJR = Wet


MNNO Water Year: Sacramento = Wet; SJR = Wet





2S
'()*+ ",()* -. */( "0+11-)2

To summaiize: uuiing the summei of 2u1S, ieuuctions in outflow, coupleu with incieaseu
watei expoits, uiew the LSZ anu Belta smelt eastwaiu into the Belta wheie smelt
encounteieu lethal watei tempeiatuies. That situation was chionicleu in a CSPA iepoit
titleu !"# %&''#( )* +,-./ 0"# 1#'23# )* 4#506 3'#50 &71#( 48-9:- 4#506 ;60#( <&6520=
%06716(13, which pieuicteu that the smelt population woulu plunge.
1S
As pieuicteu, the
following Fall Niuwatei Tiawl's Belta smelt abunuance inuex was the seconu lowest level on
iecoiu, statistically inuistinguishable fiom the absolute lowest.

The pievious low in 2uu9 was followeu by a slightly bettei watei yeai (below noimal on the
Saciamento anu above noimal on the San }oaquin) anu smelt populations expeiienceu a
small iebounu. This yeai, Belta smelt aie being subjecteu to anothei yeai of ciitically uiy
conuitions on both iiveis. Anu this yeai, the State Watei Boaiu seiiously weakeneu Belta
flow anu watei quality stanuaius. Belta outflow is below levels in iecent memoiy anu Belta
smelt populations aie at histoiic lows. Yet expoits continue anu watei tiansfeis aie being
appioveu with little enviionmental ieview.

The next Fall Niuwatei Tiawl will almost suiely finu Belta smelt populations at new iecoiu
lows. Population abunuance levels ovei the last few yeais make the numbeis of Belta smelt
uuiing the Pelagic 0iganism Becline (P0B) in the eaily 2uuus look iobust. The P0B yeais
geneiateu an enoimous outciy. Nyiiau meeting weie conuucteu, numeious stuuies funueu
anu an aiiay of piogiams launcheu. Touay, the agencies that weie so conceineu about the
P0B aie silent anu have embiaceu measuies they know will be uisastious foi the species.

The point of no ietuin, i.e., the level wheie the population cannot iecovei, is unknown. But,
that point is likely appioaching. A species that existeu in this estuaiy foi thousanus of yeais
anu was the most abunuant fish in the Belta is on the scaffolu. Peihaps, the gieatest tiageuy
is that oui tiustee agencies chaigeu with the piotection of Belta smelt; the 0SFWS, CBFu anu
the State Watei Boaiu have escoiteu it theie.


1S
http:calspoit.oignewswp-contentuploausCSPA-Cannon-Summei-2u1S-6.puf